Fuel Cells Market
Hydrogen and Energy Storage Alexander Schlaepfer, Aster Capital Partners SAS Paris, Nov 12th 2014
Aster Capital – Confidential
EU Energy strategy 20% REtot in 2020, 27% in 2030 –> 32% REel in 2020, 45% in 2030
Growth of intermittent renewable capacity up to 2035
2
Aster Capital – Confidential
At what point do we need long-term storage ? Conventional wisdom says at >50% RE Similar conclusions in several studies *
Large utilities do not see a business case for central storage before 2050
€ cost to consumers
• Up to 30% RE can be absorbed with no major problems in most grids. Flexibility inherent in baseload thermal plant can accomodate intermittant renewables. • Curtailing RE is the least cost option until approx. 10% of generated RE is curtailed • Short term (1-4h) storage needs arise at 35-50% RE penetration • Long-term storage starts making economic sense at >50% RE penetration Long-term storage Short-term storage Curtailing Flexible Generation
30% 35%
50%
RE penetration
* VDE Speicherstudie, 2012; Renewable Integration Study GE/PJM 2011; Role and Value of Energy Storage Systems in the UK, Imperial College, 2012
3
Aster Capital – Confidential
But trend in electricity market creates opportunities
«Cheap» electricity at wholesale level
Storage may not be economic... • Low conversion efficiency of most storage technologies do not allow for «arbitrage» business model at wholesale market level • But conversion to an alternative fuel is an option • Higher efficiency of one-way conversion
• Average price of €30/MWh going forward • •
4
Means 3000 – 4000h p.a. with prices in stationary fuel-cell applications
• Market • Premium that market is willing to pay for CO2 neutral fuels is uncertain (EU FQD may establish a mechanism for that)
14
Aster Capital – Confidential
EU FQD – life-cycle GHG value calculation
As proposed by the EU Council of Ministers on Oct 6th 2014
Synth. Methane
Hydrogen
15
Aster Capital – Confidential
Aster Capital – Confidential
EU Energy strategy 20% REtot in 2020, 27% in 2030 –> 32% REel in 2020, 45% in 2030
Growth of intermittent renewable capacity up to 2035
2
Aster Capital – Confidential
At what point do we need long-term storage ? Conventional wisdom says at >50% RE Similar conclusions in several studies *
Large utilities do not see a business case for central storage before 2050
€ cost to consumers
• Up to 30% RE can be absorbed with no major problems in most grids. Flexibility inherent in baseload thermal plant can accomodate intermittant renewables. • Curtailing RE is the least cost option until approx. 10% of generated RE is curtailed • Short term (1-4h) storage needs arise at 35-50% RE penetration • Long-term storage starts making economic sense at >50% RE penetration Long-term storage Short-term storage Curtailing Flexible Generation
30% 35%
50%
RE penetration
* VDE Speicherstudie, 2012; Renewable Integration Study GE/PJM 2011; Role and Value of Energy Storage Systems in the UK, Imperial College, 2012
3
Aster Capital – Confidential
But trend in electricity market creates opportunities
«Cheap» electricity at wholesale level
Storage may not be economic... • Low conversion efficiency of most storage technologies do not allow for «arbitrage» business model at wholesale market level • But conversion to an alternative fuel is an option • Higher efficiency of one-way conversion
• Average price of €30/MWh going forward • •
4
Means 3000 – 4000h p.a. with prices in stationary fuel-cell applications
• Market • Premium that market is willing to pay for CO2 neutral fuels is uncertain (EU FQD may establish a mechanism for that)
14
Aster Capital – Confidential
EU FQD – life-cycle GHG value calculation
As proposed by the EU Council of Ministers on Oct 6th 2014
Synth. Methane
Hydrogen
15
Aster Capital – Confidential
