GHG Emissions
Transport Sector in Oman, Contribution to Greenhouse Gases, and Future Implication Presented at the Third SQU SQU--JCCP Joint Symposium Environmental Challenges and Mitigation Approaches for Sustainable Development in the Oil and Gas Industry 19--21 December 2010, 19 2010, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman Khalid Al Al--Rawahy Department of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University Al Al--Khodh, Sultanate of Oman
1
This Presentation
General Introduction GHGs, Determinants, and Global Trends Transport Sector Oman Trends Implications Conclusion
Some Facts on GHGs • Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Worldwide, emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities increased by 26 percent from 1990 to 2005. Emissions of carbon dioxide, which account for nearly three-fourths of the total, increased by 31 percent over this period. Like in the United States, the majority of the world’s emissions are associated with energy use. • Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen substantially since the beginning of the industrial era. Almost all of this increase is attributable to human activities. Historical measurements show that the current levels of many greenhouse gases are higher than any seen in thousands of years, even after accounting for natural fluctuations US EPA, 2010
2
3
Global GHG Emissions by Gas, 1950-2000
Source: US EPA (2010)
4
5
GHG Emissions
Depend on a number of parameters: Income Population Structure of economy Energy use and type Technology Extent of trade
6
Global Trends: Growth in Energy, Economy, and Emissions
Energy use grows with economic development energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004) 400
US
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)
350 300
Australia
250
Russia S. Korea
Ireland
150 100
Malaysia Mexico
Greece
China
50
Brazil India
0 0
Source: (UNDESA-DSD 2006)
France Japan UK
200
5,000
Source: UN and DOE EIA Russia data 1992-2004 only
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
7
8
Transportation GHG Emissions, by Source
Passenger Cars 35%
Light Trucks 27%
Transport Sector and GHGs Lubricants 1% Pipelines 2% Locomotives 2%
Heavy-Duty Vehicles 19%
Boats and ships 3% Aircraft 9%
Source: US EPA, 2005
9
Past and Projected Emissions of CO2 from Transport Sector
Global Fossil-Fuel Carbon Emissions
CDIAC, 2010
10
Global per Capita Carbon Emission Estimates
CO2 Emissions from Oman
CDIAC, 2010
CDIAC, 2010
11
Per capita CO2 Emission Estimates for Oman
Determinants of transporttransport-GHGs and Intensity
Population and vehicles in operation Income Industrial and economic activities Extent of trade Geography and other location location--characteristics
CDIAC, 2010
12
Oman Population
Energy Intensity
3,000
300
2,500
250
Kg OE/$1000 GDP
Po p u latio n (in 000)
3,500
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
Year
2001
2004
2007
200 150 100 50 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
year
Source: US Census Bureau, International Data, 2010
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009
13
Real GDP (1990 Prices)
Extent of Export/Import Trade
Million Rial Oman
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year
Source: Oman Statistical Yearbook (2008) Source: UN Statistical Division, 2010
14
Passenger cars in Oman Population
CO2 Emission form Oman Transport Sector (20%) Million metric tons carbon dioxide
Cars/1000 inhabitants
250 200 150 100 50 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Year
2004
2006
2008
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009
15
Conclusions
Conclusions/cont.
Demand for transport services in Oman is expected to increase due to the general increase in the following:
population Industrialization economic growth income trend toward urbanization Globalization, and associated increase in world trade
Thus, GHG emissions, and the associated transport transport--related pollution will be exacerbated.
Growth in transporttransport-related GHGs is expected to be comparatively less than in previous years due to a number of reasons:
If the same rate of growth in carbon dioxide emission is applied, the total estimated emission in year 2020 will be 23 23..5 million metric tons – up from 10..2 million in year 2007. 10 2007. TransportTransport-related carbon dioxide emission will reach 4.7 million metric tons, up from 2.04 million metric tons in year 2007. 2007.
newer and more efficient technologies in transport vehicles, stricter regulations on types and vintage of cars on roads, and fuels that are less polluting on combustion.
16
CO2 Emissions (x (x10 106 m tons) CO2 Emissions
2007
2020
Total
10.2
23.5
TransportTransport-related
2.04
4.7
Conclusions/cont. • Reducing emissions is an enormous, and complex challenge; It is multidisciplinary and requires the cooperation and contribution of every component in a civil society. • Regulation, technology, awareness, moral and ethical responsibility and wisdom among citizens will play a central role to achieve this noble and inter-generational objective.
17
1
This Presentation
General Introduction GHGs, Determinants, and Global Trends Transport Sector Oman Trends Implications Conclusion
Some Facts on GHGs • Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Worldwide, emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities increased by 26 percent from 1990 to 2005. Emissions of carbon dioxide, which account for nearly three-fourths of the total, increased by 31 percent over this period. Like in the United States, the majority of the world’s emissions are associated with energy use. • Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen substantially since the beginning of the industrial era. Almost all of this increase is attributable to human activities. Historical measurements show that the current levels of many greenhouse gases are higher than any seen in thousands of years, even after accounting for natural fluctuations US EPA, 2010
2
3
Global GHG Emissions by Gas, 1950-2000
Source: US EPA (2010)
4
5
GHG Emissions
Depend on a number of parameters: Income Population Structure of economy Energy use and type Technology Extent of trade
6
Global Trends: Growth in Energy, Economy, and Emissions
Energy use grows with economic development energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004) 400
US
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)
350 300
Australia
250
Russia S. Korea
Ireland
150 100
Malaysia Mexico
Greece
China
50
Brazil India
0 0
Source: (UNDESA-DSD 2006)
France Japan UK
200
5,000
Source: UN and DOE EIA Russia data 1992-2004 only
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
7
8
Transportation GHG Emissions, by Source
Passenger Cars 35%
Light Trucks 27%
Transport Sector and GHGs Lubricants 1% Pipelines 2% Locomotives 2%
Heavy-Duty Vehicles 19%
Boats and ships 3% Aircraft 9%
Source: US EPA, 2005
9
Past and Projected Emissions of CO2 from Transport Sector
Global Fossil-Fuel Carbon Emissions
CDIAC, 2010
10
Global per Capita Carbon Emission Estimates
CO2 Emissions from Oman
CDIAC, 2010
CDIAC, 2010
11
Per capita CO2 Emission Estimates for Oman
Determinants of transporttransport-GHGs and Intensity
Population and vehicles in operation Income Industrial and economic activities Extent of trade Geography and other location location--characteristics
CDIAC, 2010
12
Oman Population
Energy Intensity
3,000
300
2,500
250
Kg OE/$1000 GDP
Po p u latio n (in 000)
3,500
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
Year
2001
2004
2007
200 150 100 50 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
year
Source: US Census Bureau, International Data, 2010
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009
13
Real GDP (1990 Prices)
Extent of Export/Import Trade
Million Rial Oman
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year
Source: Oman Statistical Yearbook (2008) Source: UN Statistical Division, 2010
14
Passenger cars in Oman Population
CO2 Emission form Oman Transport Sector (20%) Million metric tons carbon dioxide
Cars/1000 inhabitants
250 200 150 100 50 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Year
2004
2006
2008
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009
15
Conclusions
Conclusions/cont.
Demand for transport services in Oman is expected to increase due to the general increase in the following:
population Industrialization economic growth income trend toward urbanization Globalization, and associated increase in world trade
Thus, GHG emissions, and the associated transport transport--related pollution will be exacerbated.
Growth in transporttransport-related GHGs is expected to be comparatively less than in previous years due to a number of reasons:
If the same rate of growth in carbon dioxide emission is applied, the total estimated emission in year 2020 will be 23 23..5 million metric tons – up from 10..2 million in year 2007. 10 2007. TransportTransport-related carbon dioxide emission will reach 4.7 million metric tons, up from 2.04 million metric tons in year 2007. 2007.
newer and more efficient technologies in transport vehicles, stricter regulations on types and vintage of cars on roads, and fuels that are less polluting on combustion.
16
CO2 Emissions (x (x10 106 m tons) CO2 Emissions
2007
2020
Total
10.2
23.5
TransportTransport-related
2.04
4.7
Conclusions/cont. • Reducing emissions is an enormous, and complex challenge; It is multidisciplinary and requires the cooperation and contribution of every component in a civil society. • Regulation, technology, awareness, moral and ethical responsibility and wisdom among citizens will play a central role to achieve this noble and inter-generational objective.
17
