Global Climate Change
Global Climate and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Where We Are Headed
Mack McFarland, Ph.D.
2
Agenda • Overview of climate science and recent information
• The U.S. “share” in addressing climate change
• The role of HVAC&R in climate change • Refrigerants • Energy efficiency
• Summary
Sources of reliable information
Sources of reliable information • Credible scientific organizations, e.g. National Academy of Sciences • Climate Change Science, An Analysis of Some Key Questions, Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, NRC, 2001: http://www.nap.edu.catalog/10139.html • Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change: http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf
• A sound, science based assessment process, e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/
3
Overview of the science
4
Climate • Climate is the average weather • Climate is controlled by long term energy balance of the earth and its atmosphere • There is a greenhouse effect • Average surface temperature is about 34oC warmer than it would be without greenhouse effect
• The issue is an enhanced greenhouse effect due to human activities • Primary issue is carbon dioxide generated when coal, oil and natural gas are burned for energy
5
Overview of the science
Energy Balance of the Earth
From: IPCC Second Assessment Report
Overview of the science
6
Overview of the science
Global Climate Change (or Global Warming) •Basic science is sound • There is a natural greenhouse effect • Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing (primarily carbon dioxide) • Increasing concentrations will cause an enhanced greenhouse effect; global climate change or global warming • Persistence of effects is a major issue
• Uncertainties • Rate and magnitude of climate change • Local and regional changes and impacts
7
Overview of the science
Confidence in the Science is Increasing •Reality •“The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more, when the commitment to future climate change will then be considerably larger than it is today.” Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment: IPCC FAR (1990) Working Group I Report
•“Nevertheless, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernable human influence on global climate.” Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: IPCC SAR Working Group I Report
•“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: IPCC TAR Working Group I Report
•“Most of the observed globally averaged temperature increase [about 1.2ºF] since the mid20th century is very likely [90% confidence] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: IPCC AR4 Working Group I Report
•Perceptions Just read or listen to the news “…82 percent of Americans say they believe in global warming, up from 77 percent in October 2005…” http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,250571,00.html (February 8, 2007)
8
Most recent information
The 2007 IPCC Assessment Reports -- AR4 • Full Assessment Report finalized in 2007 • February – Working Group 1 “The Scientific Basis” • April -- Working Group II "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“ • May -- Working Group III "Mitigation of Climate Change“ • November -- The Synthesis Report (SYR)
• Represents the state of understanding through about mid-2006 • See: http://www.ipcc.ch/
9
Most recent information
10
Key Findings from “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis” • “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years (see Figure SPM-1). The global increase in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.” • Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to increase • Concentration is 379ppm, >35% above pre-industrial value • Increase exceeds natural range (180 – 300 ppm) over past 650,000 years • Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increased from 23.5 Gt/year in 1990s to 26.4 Gt/year for 2000-2005
• Atmospheric concentrations of other GHGs are also increasing • Methane concentration is almost 2.5x pre-industrial value • Nitrous oxide is 18% above pre-industrial value From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
From: IPCC Presentation to UNEP Governing Council meeting, 6 Feb. 2007
11
Most recent information
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
12
Most recent information
13
Key Findings (2) • “The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2.” • “Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence that a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. Positive forcing tends to warm the surface while negative forcing tends to cool it. In this report radiative forcing values are for 2005 relative to pre-industrial conditions defined at 1750 and are expressed in watts per square meter (W m-2).” From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
From Figure SPM-2: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
14
Most recent information
15
Key Findings (3) • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”
From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
16
Most recent information
Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
From Figure SPM-3: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
17
Most recent information
From FAQ 9.2 Figure 1: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
18
Key Findings (6) • “Analysis of climate models together with constraints from observations enables an assessed likely range to be given for climate sensitivity for the first time and provides increased confidence in the understanding of the climate system response to radiative forcing.” • “Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.” • “Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.” From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
From Figure SPM-5: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
19
20
Sources of CO2 emissions
Developed Country Energy Related CO2 Emissions
International Transportation
10000 Transportation
Commercial Bldg
5000
Residential Bldg.
Industry
0
From: Sectoral Trends in Global Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Price, L., de la Rue du Can, S., Sinton, J., and Worrell, E., forthcoming Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL-56144
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
Agriculture
1971
Million Tonnes Carbon Dioxide
15000
The international response
The Global Response The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• Ratified by 189 countries • Including the U.S. in 1992
• Article 2 is statement of the objective
21
The international response
UNFCCC ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
22
The international response
What does it take for Stabilization? •Global per capita carbon dioxide emissions must be about 1/10th current level in U.S.(1/5th level in EU or Japan) in 75 to 100 years, and falling rapidly, to achieve stabilization of concentrations at 1.6 to 2 times pre-industrial concentration
23
24
What Does it Take to Prevent “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with The Climate System?”
A growing number of countries and organizations are advocating a “target range” for stabilization of CO2 concentration of 450 to 550 ppm
U.S. “share” of achieving stabilization of CO2 concentration in target range is an emission reduction of 60% to 80% by 2050
From Figure 10.22 from IPCC AR4 WG I
25
Lieberman-Warner Bill – S-2191 • S-2191 is currently leading bill addressing climate change • Key aspects of S-2191 • Covers about 80% of U.S. economy • Based primarily on cap and trade scheme • Cap begins in 2012 with linear reduction to 30% of 2012 cap by 2050 – consistent with U.S. share of achieving target stabilization range • Cap in 2012 is at 5775 MMt CO2eq while BAU emissions for sectors covered are projected to be over 6000 MMt CO2eq in 2012 • Projected carbon price in 2015 is $18 - $30/ton CO2eq • Current version of S-2191 would regulate HFCs in a separate basket on a CO2eq basis • Under the initial version of S-2191 HFCs would have been included under the economy-wide cap on a CO2eq basis • HFC allocations would have been about 35-40% of 2012 BAU demand • If this bill were to have passed in its initial form, cost to industry in 2012 could have been as high as $6 to $9 billion
26
HFCs Are a Small but Very Visible Part of the Global Warming Issue • Globally HFCs are responsible for only a few percent of the total contribution to global warming • But there are several factors that make them a target: • Nationally HFCs can represent several percent of total contribution to global warming • The CFC legacy – regulate and industry will innovate • Refrigerant emissions are large • HFCs are included in the “basket” of gases under the UNFCCC and it’s Kyoto Protocol and have almost no “baseline” • HFCs are considered “high GWP” gases with perceived low reduction costs – large “bang for the buck” in controls • Energy efficiency is considered a separate issue • Bottom line – HFCs are a target for global warming regulations • All economy wide bills introduced in Senate included HFCs either explicitly or implicitly
27
Contributions to Climate Change from Air Conditioning and Refrigeration CO2 Emissions from Generating Electricity U.S. Average 610 kg CO2/MWh
Refrigerant Emissions: • Installation/Servicing • Leaks • Failures • End of Life 1 kg R-22 = 1,820 kg CO2 1 kg R-134a = 1,430 kg CO2 1 kg R-410A = 2,088 kg CO2 1 kg R-404A = 3,922 kg CO2
+ About 10% of CO2 emissions are due to energy generated to run vapor compression heating, refrigeration, and air conditioning equipment
28
An Industry in Transition Transitions due to Ozone Regulations
? Transition due to Climate Regulations ?
1200
800
HFCs
HCFCs
CFCs 400
20 15
20 12
20 09
20 06
20 03
20 00
19 97
19 91
19 88
19 85
19 82
19 79
19 76
19 73
19 70
0 19 94
Thousands of tonnes
1600
Refrigerants Other
Refrigerants Foam Expansion
Solvents Propellants
Fire Extinguishants
29
Schematic diagram of major issues addressed by this report
SROC Figure TS -1
30
Climate Benefits of the Montreal Protocol The Montreal Protocol will have reduced net GWP-weighted emissions from ODSs in 2010 by 5-6 times the reduction target of the Kyoto Protocol.
The Montreal Protocol will have reduced net GWP-weighted emissions from ODSs in 2010 by about 11 Gt CO2-eq yr-1.
From: Velders Guus J. M., Stephen O. Andersen, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey, and Mack McFarland, The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online Mar 8, 2007.
31
Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) & Carbon Prices Refrigerant/Compound
IPCC SAR GWP
IPCC/AR4 GWP
(Carbon price/kg @ $25/tonne CO2)
(Carbon price/kg @ $25/tonne CO2)
HCFC-22
1820
HCFC-142b
2310
HFC-152a
140 ($3.50)
124 ($3.10)
HFC-32
650 ($16.25)
675 ($16.88)
HFC-245fa
1020 ($25.50)
HFC-134a
1300 ($32.50)
1430 ($35.75)
HFC-4310mee
1300 ($32.50)
1640 ($41.00)
HFC-125
2800 ($70.00)
3500 ($87.50)
HFC-227ea
2900 ($72.50)
3220 ($80.50)
HFC-143a
3800 ($95.00)
4470 ($111.75)
R-410A
1725 ($43.13)
2088 ($52.20)
R-404A
3260 ($81.50)
3922 ($98.05)
32
Impact of HFCs in Overall “Basket of Gases” in Cap and Trade • Because of high GWP of HFCs there is large “leverage” on the carbon price vs. other commodities. • The result could be significant market disruption if HFCs in overall basket. Cap and trade imbeds “carbon price” in commodities Commodity
Representative % Price Increase at $25/ton CO2
Aluminum
25%
Steel
15%
Gasoline
8-10%
Electricity
10%
Natural gas
15-20%
Common HFCs
500-700%
33
A Better Approach to Regulating HFCs – Current Version of S-2191 • Put HFCs in a separate “basket” on a GWP weighted basis
modeled on Montreal Protocol approaches. • Declining cap on U.S. HFC consumption on GWP weighted basis beginning in 2010 with baseline sufficient to serve 2010 market demand. • To account for HCFC->HFC transition Baseline expressed as “GWP weighted quantity of 100% HFCs + 60% HCFCs sold into commercial markets in 2004-2006”
• Include imported products/equipment containing HFCs
• Consumption per Montreal Protocol = production + imports – exports • Allocation/auction of allowances to producers based on baseline • No consumption allowances required for HFCs captured in the U.S. and recycled • Consumption allowances would be generated by capture and destruction of HFCs in the U.S.
34
Estimated BAU HFC and HCFC Market Demand in U.S.
400
HCFCs 300
HFC Cap Baseline
HFC Aftermarket
200
HFC allocation under Initial version of L-W
HFCs in all other new products
100 HFCs in new refrigeration and air conditioning equipment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0 2005
Million Tons CO2eq
500
35
Advantages of Regulating HFCs Separately • Avoids market disruption of high carbon price imbedded in HFC price • Avoids command and control regulations – allows market to determine how HFCs are used • Provides producers and consumers time for market transition • Provides regulatory certainty for the industry • Builds on experience of CFC and HCFC regulations • U.S. Market has almost 2 decades of experience with this form of regulation • EPA has experience in implementing this form of regulation
• Provides environmental certainty • High value applications would remain
36
The HVAC&R Industry Should be Prepared to Address Climate Change • Regulations are coming – already present in some regions • HFCs will very likely be included driving • In the near-term, demand for decreasing emissions of refrigerants • Tighter systems • Better service practices • End of life recovery • In the longer-term, innovation for new refrigerants and technologies
• Energy efficiency is critical • CO2eq prices on energy will drive demand for equipment with higher efficiency • Additional standards for energy efficiency are likely
Mack McFarland, Ph.D.
2
Agenda • Overview of climate science and recent information
• The U.S. “share” in addressing climate change
• The role of HVAC&R in climate change • Refrigerants • Energy efficiency
• Summary
Sources of reliable information
Sources of reliable information • Credible scientific organizations, e.g. National Academy of Sciences • Climate Change Science, An Analysis of Some Key Questions, Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, NRC, 2001: http://www.nap.edu.catalog/10139.html • Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change: http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf
• A sound, science based assessment process, e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/
3
Overview of the science
4
Climate • Climate is the average weather • Climate is controlled by long term energy balance of the earth and its atmosphere • There is a greenhouse effect • Average surface temperature is about 34oC warmer than it would be without greenhouse effect
• The issue is an enhanced greenhouse effect due to human activities • Primary issue is carbon dioxide generated when coal, oil and natural gas are burned for energy
5
Overview of the science
Energy Balance of the Earth
From: IPCC Second Assessment Report
Overview of the science
6
Overview of the science
Global Climate Change (or Global Warming) •Basic science is sound • There is a natural greenhouse effect • Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing (primarily carbon dioxide) • Increasing concentrations will cause an enhanced greenhouse effect; global climate change or global warming • Persistence of effects is a major issue
• Uncertainties • Rate and magnitude of climate change • Local and regional changes and impacts
7
Overview of the science
Confidence in the Science is Increasing •Reality •“The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more, when the commitment to future climate change will then be considerably larger than it is today.” Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment: IPCC FAR (1990) Working Group I Report
•“Nevertheless, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernable human influence on global climate.” Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: IPCC SAR Working Group I Report
•“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: IPCC TAR Working Group I Report
•“Most of the observed globally averaged temperature increase [about 1.2ºF] since the mid20th century is very likely [90% confidence] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: IPCC AR4 Working Group I Report
•Perceptions Just read or listen to the news “…82 percent of Americans say they believe in global warming, up from 77 percent in October 2005…” http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,250571,00.html (February 8, 2007)
8
Most recent information
The 2007 IPCC Assessment Reports -- AR4 • Full Assessment Report finalized in 2007 • February – Working Group 1 “The Scientific Basis” • April -- Working Group II "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“ • May -- Working Group III "Mitigation of Climate Change“ • November -- The Synthesis Report (SYR)
• Represents the state of understanding through about mid-2006 • See: http://www.ipcc.ch/
9
Most recent information
10
Key Findings from “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis” • “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years (see Figure SPM-1). The global increase in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.” • Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to increase • Concentration is 379ppm, >35% above pre-industrial value • Increase exceeds natural range (180 – 300 ppm) over past 650,000 years • Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increased from 23.5 Gt/year in 1990s to 26.4 Gt/year for 2000-2005
• Atmospheric concentrations of other GHGs are also increasing • Methane concentration is almost 2.5x pre-industrial value • Nitrous oxide is 18% above pre-industrial value From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
From: IPCC Presentation to UNEP Governing Council meeting, 6 Feb. 2007
11
Most recent information
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
12
Most recent information
13
Key Findings (2) • “The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2.” • “Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence that a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. Positive forcing tends to warm the surface while negative forcing tends to cool it. In this report radiative forcing values are for 2005 relative to pre-industrial conditions defined at 1750 and are expressed in watts per square meter (W m-2).” From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
From Figure SPM-2: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
14
Most recent information
15
Key Findings (3) • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”
From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
16
Most recent information
Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
From Figure SPM-3: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
17
Most recent information
From FAQ 9.2 Figure 1: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
18
Key Findings (6) • “Analysis of climate models together with constraints from observations enables an assessed likely range to be given for climate sensitivity for the first time and provides increased confidence in the understanding of the climate system response to radiative forcing.” • “Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.” • “Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.” From: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
Most recent information
From Figure SPM-5: IPCC “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”
19
20
Sources of CO2 emissions
Developed Country Energy Related CO2 Emissions
International Transportation
10000 Transportation
Commercial Bldg
5000
Residential Bldg.
Industry
0
From: Sectoral Trends in Global Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Price, L., de la Rue du Can, S., Sinton, J., and Worrell, E., forthcoming Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL-56144
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
Agriculture
1971
Million Tonnes Carbon Dioxide
15000
The international response
The Global Response The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• Ratified by 189 countries • Including the U.S. in 1992
• Article 2 is statement of the objective
21
The international response
UNFCCC ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
22
The international response
What does it take for Stabilization? •Global per capita carbon dioxide emissions must be about 1/10th current level in U.S.(1/5th level in EU or Japan) in 75 to 100 years, and falling rapidly, to achieve stabilization of concentrations at 1.6 to 2 times pre-industrial concentration
23
24
What Does it Take to Prevent “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with The Climate System?”
A growing number of countries and organizations are advocating a “target range” for stabilization of CO2 concentration of 450 to 550 ppm
U.S. “share” of achieving stabilization of CO2 concentration in target range is an emission reduction of 60% to 80% by 2050
From Figure 10.22 from IPCC AR4 WG I
25
Lieberman-Warner Bill – S-2191 • S-2191 is currently leading bill addressing climate change • Key aspects of S-2191 • Covers about 80% of U.S. economy • Based primarily on cap and trade scheme • Cap begins in 2012 with linear reduction to 30% of 2012 cap by 2050 – consistent with U.S. share of achieving target stabilization range • Cap in 2012 is at 5775 MMt CO2eq while BAU emissions for sectors covered are projected to be over 6000 MMt CO2eq in 2012 • Projected carbon price in 2015 is $18 - $30/ton CO2eq • Current version of S-2191 would regulate HFCs in a separate basket on a CO2eq basis • Under the initial version of S-2191 HFCs would have been included under the economy-wide cap on a CO2eq basis • HFC allocations would have been about 35-40% of 2012 BAU demand • If this bill were to have passed in its initial form, cost to industry in 2012 could have been as high as $6 to $9 billion
26
HFCs Are a Small but Very Visible Part of the Global Warming Issue • Globally HFCs are responsible for only a few percent of the total contribution to global warming • But there are several factors that make them a target: • Nationally HFCs can represent several percent of total contribution to global warming • The CFC legacy – regulate and industry will innovate • Refrigerant emissions are large • HFCs are included in the “basket” of gases under the UNFCCC and it’s Kyoto Protocol and have almost no “baseline” • HFCs are considered “high GWP” gases with perceived low reduction costs – large “bang for the buck” in controls • Energy efficiency is considered a separate issue • Bottom line – HFCs are a target for global warming regulations • All economy wide bills introduced in Senate included HFCs either explicitly or implicitly
27
Contributions to Climate Change from Air Conditioning and Refrigeration CO2 Emissions from Generating Electricity U.S. Average 610 kg CO2/MWh
Refrigerant Emissions: • Installation/Servicing • Leaks • Failures • End of Life 1 kg R-22 = 1,820 kg CO2 1 kg R-134a = 1,430 kg CO2 1 kg R-410A = 2,088 kg CO2 1 kg R-404A = 3,922 kg CO2
+ About 10% of CO2 emissions are due to energy generated to run vapor compression heating, refrigeration, and air conditioning equipment
28
An Industry in Transition Transitions due to Ozone Regulations
? Transition due to Climate Regulations ?
1200
800
HFCs
HCFCs
CFCs 400
20 15
20 12
20 09
20 06
20 03
20 00
19 97
19 91
19 88
19 85
19 82
19 79
19 76
19 73
19 70
0 19 94
Thousands of tonnes
1600
Refrigerants Other
Refrigerants Foam Expansion
Solvents Propellants
Fire Extinguishants
29
Schematic diagram of major issues addressed by this report
SROC Figure TS -1
30
Climate Benefits of the Montreal Protocol The Montreal Protocol will have reduced net GWP-weighted emissions from ODSs in 2010 by 5-6 times the reduction target of the Kyoto Protocol.
The Montreal Protocol will have reduced net GWP-weighted emissions from ODSs in 2010 by about 11 Gt CO2-eq yr-1.
From: Velders Guus J. M., Stephen O. Andersen, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey, and Mack McFarland, The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online Mar 8, 2007.
31
Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) & Carbon Prices Refrigerant/Compound
IPCC SAR GWP
IPCC/AR4 GWP
(Carbon price/kg @ $25/tonne CO2)
(Carbon price/kg @ $25/tonne CO2)
HCFC-22
1820
HCFC-142b
2310
HFC-152a
140 ($3.50)
124 ($3.10)
HFC-32
650 ($16.25)
675 ($16.88)
HFC-245fa
1020 ($25.50)
HFC-134a
1300 ($32.50)
1430 ($35.75)
HFC-4310mee
1300 ($32.50)
1640 ($41.00)
HFC-125
2800 ($70.00)
3500 ($87.50)
HFC-227ea
2900 ($72.50)
3220 ($80.50)
HFC-143a
3800 ($95.00)
4470 ($111.75)
R-410A
1725 ($43.13)
2088 ($52.20)
R-404A
3260 ($81.50)
3922 ($98.05)
32
Impact of HFCs in Overall “Basket of Gases” in Cap and Trade • Because of high GWP of HFCs there is large “leverage” on the carbon price vs. other commodities. • The result could be significant market disruption if HFCs in overall basket. Cap and trade imbeds “carbon price” in commodities Commodity
Representative % Price Increase at $25/ton CO2
Aluminum
25%
Steel
15%
Gasoline
8-10%
Electricity
10%
Natural gas
15-20%
Common HFCs
500-700%
33
A Better Approach to Regulating HFCs – Current Version of S-2191 • Put HFCs in a separate “basket” on a GWP weighted basis
modeled on Montreal Protocol approaches. • Declining cap on U.S. HFC consumption on GWP weighted basis beginning in 2010 with baseline sufficient to serve 2010 market demand. • To account for HCFC->HFC transition Baseline expressed as “GWP weighted quantity of 100% HFCs + 60% HCFCs sold into commercial markets in 2004-2006”
• Include imported products/equipment containing HFCs
• Consumption per Montreal Protocol = production + imports – exports • Allocation/auction of allowances to producers based on baseline • No consumption allowances required for HFCs captured in the U.S. and recycled • Consumption allowances would be generated by capture and destruction of HFCs in the U.S.
34
Estimated BAU HFC and HCFC Market Demand in U.S.
400
HCFCs 300
HFC Cap Baseline
HFC Aftermarket
200
HFC allocation under Initial version of L-W
HFCs in all other new products
100 HFCs in new refrigeration and air conditioning equipment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0 2005
Million Tons CO2eq
500
35
Advantages of Regulating HFCs Separately • Avoids market disruption of high carbon price imbedded in HFC price • Avoids command and control regulations – allows market to determine how HFCs are used • Provides producers and consumers time for market transition • Provides regulatory certainty for the industry • Builds on experience of CFC and HCFC regulations • U.S. Market has almost 2 decades of experience with this form of regulation • EPA has experience in implementing this form of regulation
• Provides environmental certainty • High value applications would remain
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The HVAC&R Industry Should be Prepared to Address Climate Change • Regulations are coming – already present in some regions • HFCs will very likely be included driving • In the near-term, demand for decreasing emissions of refrigerants • Tighter systems • Better service practices • End of life recovery • In the longer-term, innovation for new refrigerants and technologies
• Energy efficiency is critical • CO2eq prices on energy will drive demand for equipment with higher efficiency • Additional standards for energy efficiency are likely
