Global Wood Markets: Consumption, Production and Trade - unece
Global Wood Markets: Consumption, Production and Trade By Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section Geneva, Switzerland
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Presentation topics I.
Introduction
II. Where is the supply? Global forests III. Where is the production? Where is the demand? IV. Forest products trade
V.
Primary Secondary
Conclusions
VI. Discussion
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
I. Introduction Why’s this important? • Trends in demand and supply of wood products • Geographical shifts in production, consumption and trade • Position of Europe in global markets
What forest products? • Wood vs non-wood • Traditional and new products
Topical issues • Traditional, e.g. trade disputes • New, e.g. subsidies for wood energy
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
II. Global forests and forest products
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forests and deforestation 3
Asia & Pacific
Net forest loss: 1990s 8.3 million ha/year 2000-2010 5.2 million ha/year
Million hectares
2 1
Europe
0 -1
Mideast
North America
-2 -3 -4 Africa
-5
S. America Sources: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessments 2000, 2005, 2010
Natural
Plantation
Central America
Total
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Why deforestation? Conversion to other uses: agriculture, palm oil, pasture, urbanization Fire, insects, disease Root causes: poverty, firewood, illegal logging Offset by plantations and natural expansion Positive trend of a negative issue
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global roundwood harvests
Source: State of the World’s Forests, 2009, FAO.
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World roundwood vs fuelwood 4.0 3.5 3.0
2.0
Of 3.5 billion m3, slightly more than half is used as woodfuel.
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07
Billion m3
2.5
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Industrial roundwood
Woodfuel
Source: FAOStat, 2009.
Woodfuel use Increasing in developed world, but efficient, environmentally sound combustion.
Inefficient domestic heating and cooking
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Modern wood energy Efficient, clean combustion Carbon neutral Renewable energy Market outlet for low-grade fiber
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Modern wood energy Processed fuels • Not bulky firewood • Conveyable chips (high moisture) • Dry, high calorie pellets and briquettes
Next… • Biorefineries: pulp, energy, chemicals • Liquid and gaseous fuels
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Production and consumption of wood pellets 7000
North American Production
Pellet Production (1000 tons)
North American Consumption
6000
European Consumption
5000
Other Consumption
4000
Total Consumption
3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: UNECE/FAO
Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2008- 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
UNECE region = Europe + N. America + CIS
Source: Worldmapper International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
UNECE roundwood harvests trends
Europe
Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER Database, 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forest resources growing stock 70 60
Billion m3
50 40 s
30 20 10 0 Europe (41) Grow ing stock
North America Net annual increment
CIS Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Net annual growth vs fellings 1 0 .9 0 .8 0 .7
Billion m3
0 .6 0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 0 .2 0 .1 0 E u ro p e (4 1 )
N . A m e ric a N e t a n n u a l in c re m e n t
C IS F e llin g s
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forests increasing in UNECE region Fellings as % of annual growth Central Europe
61%
Nordics & Baltics
72%
Northwest Europe
53%
Southeast Europe
45%
EU 27
60%
Russia
34%
North America
80%
Sources: State of the World’s Forests, 2007 and UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Increasing forests & increasing demands Increasing demand for paper and paper products, e.g. packaging Increasing demand for wood products Increasing demand for wood energy = competition! Where will wood come from?
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
III. Consumption and production
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by political boundaries
Source: Worldmapper
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by population
Source: Worldmapper, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by forest products production
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by wood and paper consumption
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
As shaped by forest products exports
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009 International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
As shaped by forest products imports
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009 International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Western European wood and fiber requirements through 2020 800 Recovered paper Net pulp imports
Amount (in million cubic metres WRME)
700
Gap is residues
Industrial roundwood Total wood and fibre requirement
600 500
Growing demand without energy
400 300 200 100 0 1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005
Industrial roundwood consumption 900 800
Million m3
700 Africa
600
Americas
500
Asia
400
Europe
300
Oceania
200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Industrial roundwood production 900 800
Million m3
700 Africa
600
Americas
500
Asia
400
Europe
300
Oceania
200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawnwood consumption 250 200 Million m3
Africa Americas
150
Asia 100
Europe Oceania
50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawnwood production 250 200 Million m3
Africa Americas
150
Asia 100
Europe Oceania
50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panels production 140 120 Million m3
100
Africa Americas
80
Asia 60
Europe Oceania
40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panels consumption 120
Million m3
100 Africa
80
Americas Asia
60
Europe
40
Oceania
20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper & paperboard consumption 180
Million metric tons
160 140 Africa
120
Americas
100
Asia
80
Europe
60
Oceania
40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper & paperboard production 160
Million metric tons
140 120
Africa
100
Americas
80
Asia
60
Europe Oceania
40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
What happens when supply does not equal demand?
IV. Trade
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global trade all products
Doubled in 6 years
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global roundwood exports Globally exports = imports in value and volume, but not in Europe leads in roundwood direction!
exports (including within Europe)
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
N. American roundwood exports
USA increasing roundwood exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
CIS roundwood exports, mainly Russia
Trend reversal in 2008 • Log export taxes • Global economic crisis
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
African and Asian roundwood exports Rising despite policies to encourage value-added processing
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
North American exports
Housing crisis
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
US housing starts, 2002-2013 2.5
Million units
2 1.5 1 0.5 0
13 20 12 20 11 20 10 20 09 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 Source: APA – The Engineered Wood Association, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Impacts of US housing crisis Global economic crisis (a cause) Massive restructuring of N. American wood industry (unemployment) Local communities devastated Long-term consequences for forest sector
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
European exports 2x in 10 years
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
CIS exports, mainly Russia 4x in 10 years
Log export taxes
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Exporting primary vs secondary Primary (logs, sawnwood, panels, pulp) are commodity products • Easy to export • Correspond to market price
Secondary, value-added products • Higher value and profits • Require greater manufacturing and marketing skills
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Secondary-processed products exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
China is the motor!
Based on domestic and imported roundwood World’s largest exporter of wooden furniture and other secondary-processed products 5x in 10 years, no downturn in 2008
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper products exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panel exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawn softwood exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
V. Trade conclusions Global timber trade doubled over last decade Greatest increase in secondary-processed products Slowdown in 2008, 2009 with global economic crisis China became largest roundwood importer and largest secondary-processed products exporter Trade barriers distort markets • Export taxes, subsidies, tariff and non-tariff • Intentionally for national reasons • Consequences for partners’ forest sector International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
VI. Discussion
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section 448 Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland Telephone +41 22 917 2872 Fax +41 22 917 0041 [email protected] www.unece.org/timber
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Presentation topics I.
Introduction
II. Where is the supply? Global forests III. Where is the production? Where is the demand? IV. Forest products trade
V.
Primary Secondary
Conclusions
VI. Discussion
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
I. Introduction Why’s this important? • Trends in demand and supply of wood products • Geographical shifts in production, consumption and trade • Position of Europe in global markets
What forest products? • Wood vs non-wood • Traditional and new products
Topical issues • Traditional, e.g. trade disputes • New, e.g. subsidies for wood energy
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
II. Global forests and forest products
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forests and deforestation 3
Asia & Pacific
Net forest loss: 1990s 8.3 million ha/year 2000-2010 5.2 million ha/year
Million hectares
2 1
Europe
0 -1
Mideast
North America
-2 -3 -4 Africa
-5
S. America Sources: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessments 2000, 2005, 2010
Natural
Plantation
Central America
Total
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Why deforestation? Conversion to other uses: agriculture, palm oil, pasture, urbanization Fire, insects, disease Root causes: poverty, firewood, illegal logging Offset by plantations and natural expansion Positive trend of a negative issue
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global roundwood harvests
Source: State of the World’s Forests, 2009, FAO.
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World roundwood vs fuelwood 4.0 3.5 3.0
2.0
Of 3.5 billion m3, slightly more than half is used as woodfuel.
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07
Billion m3
2.5
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Industrial roundwood
Woodfuel
Source: FAOStat, 2009.
Woodfuel use Increasing in developed world, but efficient, environmentally sound combustion.
Inefficient domestic heating and cooking
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Modern wood energy Efficient, clean combustion Carbon neutral Renewable energy Market outlet for low-grade fiber
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Modern wood energy Processed fuels • Not bulky firewood • Conveyable chips (high moisture) • Dry, high calorie pellets and briquettes
Next… • Biorefineries: pulp, energy, chemicals • Liquid and gaseous fuels
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Production and consumption of wood pellets 7000
North American Production
Pellet Production (1000 tons)
North American Consumption
6000
European Consumption
5000
Other Consumption
4000
Total Consumption
3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: UNECE/FAO
Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2008- 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
UNECE region = Europe + N. America + CIS
Source: Worldmapper International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
UNECE roundwood harvests trends
Europe
Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER Database, 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forest resources growing stock 70 60
Billion m3
50 40 s
30 20 10 0 Europe (41) Grow ing stock
North America Net annual increment
CIS Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Net annual growth vs fellings 1 0 .9 0 .8 0 .7
Billion m3
0 .6 0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 0 .2 0 .1 0 E u ro p e (4 1 )
N . A m e ric a N e t a n n u a l in c re m e n t
C IS F e llin g s
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forests increasing in UNECE region Fellings as % of annual growth Central Europe
61%
Nordics & Baltics
72%
Northwest Europe
53%
Southeast Europe
45%
EU 27
60%
Russia
34%
North America
80%
Sources: State of the World’s Forests, 2007 and UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Increasing forests & increasing demands Increasing demand for paper and paper products, e.g. packaging Increasing demand for wood products Increasing demand for wood energy = competition! Where will wood come from?
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
III. Consumption and production
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by political boundaries
Source: Worldmapper
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by population
Source: Worldmapper, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by forest products production
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by wood and paper consumption
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
As shaped by forest products exports
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009 International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
As shaped by forest products imports
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009 International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Western European wood and fiber requirements through 2020 800 Recovered paper Net pulp imports
Amount (in million cubic metres WRME)
700
Gap is residues
Industrial roundwood Total wood and fibre requirement
600 500
Growing demand without energy
400 300 200 100 0 1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005
Industrial roundwood consumption 900 800
Million m3
700 Africa
600
Americas
500
Asia
400
Europe
300
Oceania
200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Industrial roundwood production 900 800
Million m3
700 Africa
600
Americas
500
Asia
400
Europe
300
Oceania
200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawnwood consumption 250 200 Million m3
Africa Americas
150
Asia 100
Europe Oceania
50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawnwood production 250 200 Million m3
Africa Americas
150
Asia 100
Europe Oceania
50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panels production 140 120 Million m3
100
Africa Americas
80
Asia 60
Europe Oceania
40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panels consumption 120
Million m3
100 Africa
80
Americas Asia
60
Europe
40
Oceania
20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper & paperboard consumption 180
Million metric tons
160 140 Africa
120
Americas
100
Asia
80
Europe
60
Oceania
40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper & paperboard production 160
Million metric tons
140 120
Africa
100
Americas
80
Asia
60
Europe Oceania
40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
What happens when supply does not equal demand?
IV. Trade
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global trade all products
Doubled in 6 years
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global roundwood exports Globally exports = imports in value and volume, but not in Europe leads in roundwood direction!
exports (including within Europe)
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
N. American roundwood exports
USA increasing roundwood exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
CIS roundwood exports, mainly Russia
Trend reversal in 2008 • Log export taxes • Global economic crisis
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
African and Asian roundwood exports Rising despite policies to encourage value-added processing
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
North American exports
Housing crisis
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
US housing starts, 2002-2013 2.5
Million units
2 1.5 1 0.5 0
13 20 12 20 11 20 10 20 09 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 Source: APA – The Engineered Wood Association, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Impacts of US housing crisis Global economic crisis (a cause) Massive restructuring of N. American wood industry (unemployment) Local communities devastated Long-term consequences for forest sector
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
European exports 2x in 10 years
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
CIS exports, mainly Russia 4x in 10 years
Log export taxes
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Exporting primary vs secondary Primary (logs, sawnwood, panels, pulp) are commodity products • Easy to export • Correspond to market price
Secondary, value-added products • Higher value and profits • Require greater manufacturing and marketing skills
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Secondary-processed products exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
China is the motor!
Based on domestic and imported roundwood World’s largest exporter of wooden furniture and other secondary-processed products 5x in 10 years, no downturn in 2008
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper products exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panel exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawn softwood exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
V. Trade conclusions Global timber trade doubled over last decade Greatest increase in secondary-processed products Slowdown in 2008, 2009 with global economic crisis China became largest roundwood importer and largest secondary-processed products exporter Trade barriers distort markets • Export taxes, subsidies, tariff and non-tariff • Intentionally for national reasons • Consequences for partners’ forest sector International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
VI. Discussion
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section 448 Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland Telephone +41 22 917 2872 Fax +41 22 917 0041 [email protected] www.unece.org/timber
International Forestry and Global Issues 18 May 2010, Nancy, France
