Grain Market Outlook Information KSU Agricultural Today Radio
Grain Market Outlook Information KSU Agricultural Today Radio Program Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University, Friday, May 13, 2011
I.
U.S. Crop Progress for Major Crops (as of Sunday, May 8th)
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2010 corn acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : Wet soil conditions & some flooding have slowed :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 corn planting in the major Corn Belt States : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- – Illinois: 34% planted vs 62% 5 yr avg (behind)
% Corn Planted - Selected States
Colorado ........: 55 18 51 45 – Iowa: 69% planted vs 69% 5 yr avg (caught up) Illinois ........: 93 10 34 62 – Indiana: 4% planted vs 49% 5 yr avg (way behind) Indiana .........: 80 2 4 49 Iowa ............: 92 8 69 69 – Minnesota: 28% planted vs 65% 5 yr avg (behind) Kansas ..........: 69 41 66 61 – Ohio: 2% planted vs 54% 5 yr avg (way behind) 19 71 Kentucky ........: 88 17 8 49 Michigan ........: 72 1 – Nebraska: 57% planted vs 62% 5 yr avg (caught up) Minnesota .......: 93 1 28 65 – Northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, & Missouri ........: 82 32 59 60 North Dakota (way behind), with South Dakota, Nebraska ........: 74 15 57 62 Tennessee & Pennsylvania off to slow start 95 95 North Carolina ..: 96 88 North Dakota ....: 52 3 35 Kansas corn planting ahead of schedule: 66% Ohio ............: 74 1 2 54 planted vs 61% 5 year avg. Pennsylvania ....: 52 1 10 44 South Dakota ....: 45 2 17 33 United States corn planting is behind schedule: 42 86 Tennessee .......: 88 38 40% planted vs 59% 5 year avg. 87 84 Texas ...........: 84 79 Wisconsin .......: 66 1 16 45 States Affected by flooding: Missouri 18 States .......: 80 13 40 59 ----------------------------------------------------------------[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2010 corn acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : Late planting & wet soils delaying corn :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 emergence in some key states : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- – Illinois: 6% emerged vs 31% 5 yr avg (behind) Colorado ........: 2 6 – Iowa: 1% emerged vs 20% 5 yr avg (behind) Illinois ........: 60 3 6 31 Indiana .........: 48 1 19 – Indiana: 1% emerged vs 19% 5 yr avg (behind) Iowa ............: 44 1 20 – Minnesota: 0% emerged vs 12% 5 yr avg (behind) Kansas ..........: 30 12 25 27 – Ohio: 1% emerged vs 17% 5 yr avg (behind) 11 52 Kentucky ........: 74 7 Michigan ........: 22 9 – Nebraska: 4% emerged vs 12% 5 yr avg (sl. behind) Minnesota .......: 29 12 28 39 Missouri ........: 51 15 – Northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan & North Nebraska ........: 14 1 4 12 Dakota, So. Dakota, Tennessee & Pennsylvania 82 76 North Carolina ..: 81 59 either slow planting or behind emergence North Dakota ....: 7 3 Ohio ............: 35 1 1 17 Kansas corn emergence close to on schedule: 1 11 Pennsylvania ....: 14 25% planted vs 27% 5 year avg. South Dakota ....: 4 3 29 64 Tennessee .......: 72 23 United States corn emergence is behind Texas ...........: 67 57 60 67 Wisconsin .......: 11 5 schedule: 7% emerged vs 21% 5 year avg. 18 States .......: 36 5 7 21 -----------------------------------------------------------------
% Corn Emerged - Selected States
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% Sorghum Planted - Selected States [These 11 States planted 98% of the 2010 sorghum acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------Kansas grain sorghum planting just beginning: Arkansas ........: 97 59 67 77 1 10 Colorado ........: 15 3% planted vs 3% 5 year avg. Illinois ........: 12 9 Kansas ..........: 5 1 3 3 Texas grain sorghum planting slightly ahead of Louisiana .......: 90 98 99 85 average pace: 71% planted vs 68% 5 year avg. Missouri ........: 17 1 5 15 Nebraska ........: 7 7 4 United States grain sorghum planting is slightly 12 4 New Mexico ......: 8 10 ahead of schedule: 30% planted vs 29% 5 yr avg. 13 20 Oklahoma ........: 23 8 South Dakota ....: 1 3 States Affected by flooding: Missouri, Arkansas, Texas ...........: 74 56 71 68 Louisiana 11 States .......: 33 23 30 29 -----------------------------------------------------------------
% Spring Wheat Planted - Selected States [These 6 States planted 99% of the 2010 spring wheat acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : North Dakota spring wheat seeding trailing :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 behind pace: 7% planted vs 51% 5 year avg. : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- Minnesota spring wheat seeding trailing behind Idaho ...........: 79 51 66 80 pace: 18% planted vs 60% 5 year avg. Minnesota .......: 98 3 18 60 South Dakota spring wheat seeding moderately 18 61 Montana .........: 58 7 behind pace: 59% planted vs 85% 5 year avg. North Dakota ....: 52 1 7 51 South Dakota ....: 86 22 59 85 United States spring wheat seeding is behind 72 90 Washington ......: 93 60 schedule: 22% seeded vs 61% 5 yr avg. 6 States ........: 65 10 22 61 ----------------------------------------------------------------% Spring Wheat Emerged - Selected States [These 6 States planted 99% of the 2010 spring wheat acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : North Dakota spring wheat emergence trailing :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 behind pace: 0% emerged vs 17% 5 year avg. : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- Minnesota spring wheat emergence trailing Idaho ...........: 47 (NA) 32 46 behind pace: 1% emerged vs 29% 5 year avg. Minnesota .......: 84 (NA) 1 29 South Dakota spring wheat emergence behind 3 15 Montana .........: 18 (NA) pace: 16% planted vs 49% 5 year avg. North Dakota ....: 22 (NA) 17 South Dakota ....: 56 (NA) 16 49 United States spring wheat emergence is 44 63 Washington ......: 73 (NA) behind schedule: 6% emerged vs 25% 5 yr avg. 6 States ........: 36 (NA) 6 25 -----------------------------------------------------------------
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Winter Wheat Condition - Selected States: Week Ending May 8, 2011 [National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010 planted acreage]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------State : %Very poor : %Poor : %Fair : %Good :%Excellent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------Arkansas .......: 6 17 29 40 8 California .....: 5 30 65 Colorado .......: 18 23 37 21 1 → 41% Idaho ..........: 1 3 13 72 11 Illinois .......: 2 9 30 51 8 Indiana ........: 2 8 30 47 13 Kansas .........: 22 28 32 17 1 → 50% Michigan .......: 2 7 19 59 13 Missouri .......: 8 16 34 37 5 Montana ........: 1 6 24 56 13 Nebraska .......: 2 13 39 41 5 → 15% North Carolina .: 2 17 60 21 Ohio ...........: 1 5 26 52 16 Oklahoma .......: 42 35 19 4 - → 77% Oregon .........: 2 17 59 22 South Dakota ...: 1 1 22 65 11 Texas ..........: 50 26 16 8 - → 76% Washington .....: 1 2 22 60 15 18 States ......: 22 20 25 27 6 → 42% Previous week ..: 20 21 25 28 6 → 41% Previous year ..: 2 6 26 52 14 → 8% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
poor/very poor,78% fair or worse
poor/very poor,82% fair or worse
poor/very poor,54% fair or worse poor/very poor,96% fair or worse poor/very poor,92% fair or worse poor/very poor,67% fair or worse poor/very poor,66% fair or worse poor/very poor,34% fair or worse
Hard Red Winter Wheat: 76%-77% Poor/Very Poor condition in Texas & Oklahoma, 50% in Kansas Soft Red Winter Wheat: 59%-60% Good/Excellent condition in IL & IN, 75% in Ohio, White Wheat: 69%-95% Good/Excellent condition in Pacific Northwest (CA, ID, Montana, OR, WA) % Winter Wheat Headed - Selected States [These 18 States planted 91% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : Hard Red Winter Wheat States :-----------------------------------: Soft Red Winter Wheat States State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------Arkansas ........: 94 93 100 95 Poor HRW wheat conditions in the central 97 97 California ......: 97 95 and southern Great Plains have led to faster Colorado ........: 2 8 9 Idaho ...........: than normal crop development. (see % winter Illinois ........: 39 9 26 36 wheat headed in Oklahoma and Texas) Indiana .........: 12 1 10 15 Kansas ..........: 35 16 34 35 Winter wheat conditions declined slightly in Michigan ........: the last week in the major 18 U.S. winter Missouri ........: 38 27 58 44 wheat states. Montana .........: Nebraska ........: 1 North Carolina ..: 87 87 97 91 Ohio ............: 6 2 Oklahoma ........: 83 85 93 88 Oregon ..........: 1 2 South Dakota ....: Texas ...........: 70 66 80 71 Washington ......: 2 4 18 States .......: 39 33 42 40 ----------------------------------------------------------------
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[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2010 soybean acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------Wet soil conditions & some flooding have slowed : Week ending : :-----------------------------------: soybean planting in the major Corn Belt States State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 – Illinois: 2% planted vs 14% 5 yr avg : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- – Iowa: 10% planted vs 18% 5 yr avg Arkansas ........: 40 (NA) 21 30 – Indiana: 0% planted vs 17% 5 yr avg Illinois ........: 30 (NA) 2 14 Indiana .........: 33 (NA) 17 – Minnesota: 2% planted vs 18% 5 yr avg Iowa ............: 40 (NA) 10 18 – Ohio: 0% planted vs 27% 5 yr avg Kansas ..........: 13 (NA) 11 6 Kentucky ........: 10 (NA) 8 – Nebraska: 15% planted vs 14% 5 yr avg Louisiana .......: 50 (NA) 67 58 – Northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, & Michigan ........: 33 (NA) 3 20 Minnesota .......: 37 (NA) 2 18 North Dakota behind, with South Dakota & Mississippi .....: 74 (NA) 42 74 Tennessee off to slow start Missouri ........: 13 (NA) 7 9 Nebraska ........: 23 (NA) 15 14 Kansas soybean planting ahead of schedule: 11% North Carolina ..: 15 (NA) 14 11 planted vs 6% 5 year avg. North Dakota ....: 5 (NA) 6 Ohio ............: 33 (NA) 27 United States corn planting is behind schedule: South Dakota ....: 4 (NA) 1 4 Tennessee .......: 10 (NA) 1 10 7% planted vs 17% 5 year avg. Wisconsin .......: 18 (NA) 2 11 States Affected by flooding: Arkansas, Missouri, 18 States .......: 28 (NA) 7 17
% Soybeans Planted - Selected States
Louisiana & Mississippi -----------------------------------------------------------------
Soil moisture conditions by state (As of Wednesday, May 11th ) (focusing on short term crop moisture index of soil moisture in top 5 feet of soil profile): • • • • •
Iowa: Average conditions throughout Iowa Illinois: Ranging from “Extremely moist” in the south, to “very moist” in the central-Northeast, to average soil moisture conditions in west and north Indiana: “Extremely moist” in southern 2/3 of state; “very moist” in the northern 1/3 of state Ohio: “Extremely moist” in WC, SW, SC; “unusually moist” to “very moist” in remainder of state Missouri: “Extremely moist” in southern 1/3 of state; average weather conditions in remainder of the state
Dry in HRW wheat production areas of Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Kansas. Kansas Crop Moisture Conditions: Either extreme or severe drought in SW, SC, WC, Central Kansas. Moderate drought throughout nearly all of Kansas (except parts of SE Kansas)
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II. Analysis of Recent Price Trends for U.S. Corn, Wheat and Soybeans July 2011 Corn Futures (CBOT)
(November 10, 2010 to May 12, 2011)
July 2011 CBOT Corn Futures Trends July 2011 Corn Futures closed at 6.80 ½ /bu on Th, May 12th th
– Has been declining since April 26 close of $7.72 ¾
Question: Will the market keep trending down into the $6.50 ‐ $6.75 range, given the combination of supply‐demand fundamentals (still positive) and other outside economic & financial factors (uncertain & negative) that are affecting it?
$6.66
Low trade of $5.34 ¾ on 11/23/10
Longer term low close on November 22nd, 2010 Ö Low close of $5.40 ¾
Low of $6.15 ½ on 3/16/11
Focus of the Market: Reaction to May 11th USDA WASDE Report – For MY 2010/11: Indications of demand rationing in MY 2010/11 with U.S. corn ending stocks increasing from 675 mb (5% S/U) in April WASDE up to 730 mb (5.4% S/U) in the May WASDE • US Corn exports & total use reduced 50 mln bu
DEC 2011 Corn Futures (CBOT)
(11/10/10 to 5/12/11)
New Crop DEC 2011 Corn Futures Thursday, 5/12/2011 Close = $6.29
– For MY 2011/12: Initial projection of MY 2011/12 U.S. corn supply‐ demand balance sheet. • 2011 U.S. corn production: 92.2 ma planted / 85.1 ma harvested / 158.7 bu/ac amount to 13.505 bln bu corn crop
Recent Volatility th High Close ‐ $6.81 ½ on April 25 th Low Close ‐ $5.48 on March 15
o If wet weather & planting delays persist, planted acres could drop below 92.2 million → down 1‐3 mln to 89‐91 million ac?
$6.19 ¼
• Total corn use: rationed exports (1.8 bb), more ethanol (5.05 bb), less direct corn feeding (5.1 bb) • Ending stocks to increase to 900 mb (6.7% S/U) in MY 2011/12
$5.48 On 3/15
o At least a 13.5‐14.0 bb 2011 U.S. corn crop needed to maintain & grow U.S. corn ending stocks in MY 2011/12, OR have significant price rationing of usage • U.S. Corn $ = $5.50 ‐ $6.50 /bu ($6.00 /bu), vs $5.25 in MY 2010/11
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JULY 2011 HRW Wheat Futures (KCBT)
(November 10, 2010 to May 12, 2011)
$10.09 ¼
New Crop July 2011 Wheat Futures Thursday, 5/12/11 Close = $8.76 ¼
July 2011 KCBT Wheat Futures Trends
$9.76
A. July 2011 KCBT Wheat Futures closed at $8.76 ¼ on Th., May 12th (down $0.23 3/4 for the day)
Recent Volatility th High‐ $9.76 on April 26 th Low ‐ $7.76 on March 16
– Traded as high as $9.76 on April 26th, and $10.09 ¼ on Feb 9th – Traded as low as $7.76 on March 16th, and $7.19 ¼ on Nov. 16, 2010 $8.50
→ July 2011 KCBT wheat has traded in a range of $8.52 ½ to $9.76 since March 25th
B. Highly volatile markets with KCBT & CBOT wheat futures being affected by CBOT Corn, USD$, & NYMEX Oil futures $7.76
th Focus of the Market: Reaction to May 11 USDA WASDE Report & Crop Conditions for Winter & Spring Wheat – For MY 2010/11: No changes in supply‐demand balance sheet from 839 mb (34.2% S/U) in the May WASDE • World wheat ending stocks (182.2 mmt) & % ending stocks‐to‐use (27.0%) tightened marginally – For MY 2011/12: Initial projection of MY 2011/12 U.S. wheat supply‐demand balance sheet. • 2011 U.S. wheat production: 58.0 ma planted / 48.0 ma harvested / 42.5 bu/ac amount to 2.043 bln bu wheat crop o Spring Wheat Planting Problems: If wet weather & planting delays persist for Spring wheat in the Northern Plains, U.S. spring wheat planted acres could drop below 14.4 million → down 1‐2 mln to 12.4 – 13.4 million ac? o HRW Wheat Production problems in Central & Southern Plains: Expectations of 100 mln bu less Kansas wheat crop (255‐260 mb). With losses of 50‐100 mb+ in TX, OK, CO, could drop U.S. wheat production lower still. • U.S. Wheat Use: rationed exports (1.05 bb vs 1.275 bb in MY 2010/11), more food use (945 mb), more wheat feeding (220 mb) • Ending stocks to decrease to 702 mb (30.7% S/U) in MY 2011/12 (vs 839 mb & 34.2% S/U in MY 2010/11) o Increase World wheat production expected to offset impact of reduced U.S. supplies available in World wheat export markets • U.S. Wheat $ = $6.80 ‐ $8.20 /bu ($7.50 /bu), vs $5.655 in MY 2010/11
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July 2011 Soybean Futures (CBOT)
(November 10, 2010 to May 12, 2011) Thursday, May 12 Closing $ = $13.42 ¾ (up $0.11) Lower trend since May 2nd High of $14.02
$14.02
Ö July 2011 has not traded below $12.78 since March 15th
Focus of the Market: Reaction to May 11th USDA WASDE Report – For MY 2010/11: Indications of demand rationing in MY 2010/11 with U.S. soybean ending stocks increasing from 140 mb (4.2% S/U) in April WASDE up to 170 mb (5.1% S/U) in the May WASDE
$13.07 ½
• US soybean exports & total use reduced 30 mln bu
$12.78
– For MY 2011/12: Initial projection of MY 2011/12 U.S. soybean supply‐ demand balance sheet. • 2011 U.S. soybean production: 76.6 ma planted / 75.7 ma harvested / 43.4 bu/ac amount to 3.285 bln bu soybean crop o If wet weather & planting delays persist for corn, planted acres of soybeans could increase by 1 mln acres or more to 77.6‐78.0 million NOV 2011 Soybean Futures (CBOT) (11/10/10 to 5/12/11)
• Total soybean use: rationed exports (1.54 bb) & more crush (1.655 bb • Ending stocks to be 160 mb (4.8% S/U) in MY 2011/12 o The U.S. soybean production estimate of 3.285 bb is highly tentative given planting and production uncertainty in the U.S. in 2011. • U.S. Soybean $ = $12.00 ‐ $14.00 /bu ($13.00 /bu), vs $11.40 in MY 2010/11
New Crop NOV 2011 Soybean Futures Thursday, 5/12/2011 Close = $13.26 1/4 Recent Volatility th High Close ‐ $13.96 on April 8 th Low Close ‐ $12.38 on March 15
*DEC 2011 Corn ($6.30 ) vs NOV 2011 ($13.26 ¼ ) Price Ratio* = 2.10 on 5/12/2011
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I.
U.S. Crop Progress for Major Crops (as of Sunday, May 8th)
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2010 corn acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : Wet soil conditions & some flooding have slowed :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 corn planting in the major Corn Belt States : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- – Illinois: 34% planted vs 62% 5 yr avg (behind)
% Corn Planted - Selected States
Colorado ........: 55 18 51 45 – Iowa: 69% planted vs 69% 5 yr avg (caught up) Illinois ........: 93 10 34 62 – Indiana: 4% planted vs 49% 5 yr avg (way behind) Indiana .........: 80 2 4 49 Iowa ............: 92 8 69 69 – Minnesota: 28% planted vs 65% 5 yr avg (behind) Kansas ..........: 69 41 66 61 – Ohio: 2% planted vs 54% 5 yr avg (way behind) 19 71 Kentucky ........: 88 17 8 49 Michigan ........: 72 1 – Nebraska: 57% planted vs 62% 5 yr avg (caught up) Minnesota .......: 93 1 28 65 – Northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, & Missouri ........: 82 32 59 60 North Dakota (way behind), with South Dakota, Nebraska ........: 74 15 57 62 Tennessee & Pennsylvania off to slow start 95 95 North Carolina ..: 96 88 North Dakota ....: 52 3 35 Kansas corn planting ahead of schedule: 66% Ohio ............: 74 1 2 54 planted vs 61% 5 year avg. Pennsylvania ....: 52 1 10 44 South Dakota ....: 45 2 17 33 United States corn planting is behind schedule: 42 86 Tennessee .......: 88 38 40% planted vs 59% 5 year avg. 87 84 Texas ...........: 84 79 Wisconsin .......: 66 1 16 45 States Affected by flooding: Missouri 18 States .......: 80 13 40 59 ----------------------------------------------------------------[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2010 corn acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : Late planting & wet soils delaying corn :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 emergence in some key states : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- – Illinois: 6% emerged vs 31% 5 yr avg (behind) Colorado ........: 2 6 – Iowa: 1% emerged vs 20% 5 yr avg (behind) Illinois ........: 60 3 6 31 Indiana .........: 48 1 19 – Indiana: 1% emerged vs 19% 5 yr avg (behind) Iowa ............: 44 1 20 – Minnesota: 0% emerged vs 12% 5 yr avg (behind) Kansas ..........: 30 12 25 27 – Ohio: 1% emerged vs 17% 5 yr avg (behind) 11 52 Kentucky ........: 74 7 Michigan ........: 22 9 – Nebraska: 4% emerged vs 12% 5 yr avg (sl. behind) Minnesota .......: 29 12 28 39 Missouri ........: 51 15 – Northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan & North Nebraska ........: 14 1 4 12 Dakota, So. Dakota, Tennessee & Pennsylvania 82 76 North Carolina ..: 81 59 either slow planting or behind emergence North Dakota ....: 7 3 Ohio ............: 35 1 1 17 Kansas corn emergence close to on schedule: 1 11 Pennsylvania ....: 14 25% planted vs 27% 5 year avg. South Dakota ....: 4 3 29 64 Tennessee .......: 72 23 United States corn emergence is behind Texas ...........: 67 57 60 67 Wisconsin .......: 11 5 schedule: 7% emerged vs 21% 5 year avg. 18 States .......: 36 5 7 21 -----------------------------------------------------------------
% Corn Emerged - Selected States
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% Sorghum Planted - Selected States [These 11 States planted 98% of the 2010 sorghum acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------Kansas grain sorghum planting just beginning: Arkansas ........: 97 59 67 77 1 10 Colorado ........: 15 3% planted vs 3% 5 year avg. Illinois ........: 12 9 Kansas ..........: 5 1 3 3 Texas grain sorghum planting slightly ahead of Louisiana .......: 90 98 99 85 average pace: 71% planted vs 68% 5 year avg. Missouri ........: 17 1 5 15 Nebraska ........: 7 7 4 United States grain sorghum planting is slightly 12 4 New Mexico ......: 8 10 ahead of schedule: 30% planted vs 29% 5 yr avg. 13 20 Oklahoma ........: 23 8 South Dakota ....: 1 3 States Affected by flooding: Missouri, Arkansas, Texas ...........: 74 56 71 68 Louisiana 11 States .......: 33 23 30 29 -----------------------------------------------------------------
% Spring Wheat Planted - Selected States [These 6 States planted 99% of the 2010 spring wheat acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : North Dakota spring wheat seeding trailing :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 behind pace: 7% planted vs 51% 5 year avg. : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- Minnesota spring wheat seeding trailing behind Idaho ...........: 79 51 66 80 pace: 18% planted vs 60% 5 year avg. Minnesota .......: 98 3 18 60 South Dakota spring wheat seeding moderately 18 61 Montana .........: 58 7 behind pace: 59% planted vs 85% 5 year avg. North Dakota ....: 52 1 7 51 South Dakota ....: 86 22 59 85 United States spring wheat seeding is behind 72 90 Washington ......: 93 60 schedule: 22% seeded vs 61% 5 yr avg. 6 States ........: 65 10 22 61 ----------------------------------------------------------------% Spring Wheat Emerged - Selected States [These 6 States planted 99% of the 2010 spring wheat acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : North Dakota spring wheat emergence trailing :-----------------------------------: State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 behind pace: 0% emerged vs 17% 5 year avg. : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- Minnesota spring wheat emergence trailing Idaho ...........: 47 (NA) 32 46 behind pace: 1% emerged vs 29% 5 year avg. Minnesota .......: 84 (NA) 1 29 South Dakota spring wheat emergence behind 3 15 Montana .........: 18 (NA) pace: 16% planted vs 49% 5 year avg. North Dakota ....: 22 (NA) 17 South Dakota ....: 56 (NA) 16 49 United States spring wheat emergence is 44 63 Washington ......: 73 (NA) behind schedule: 6% emerged vs 25% 5 yr avg. 6 States ........: 36 (NA) 6 25 -----------------------------------------------------------------
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Winter Wheat Condition - Selected States: Week Ending May 8, 2011 [National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010 planted acreage]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------State : %Very poor : %Poor : %Fair : %Good :%Excellent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------Arkansas .......: 6 17 29 40 8 California .....: 5 30 65 Colorado .......: 18 23 37 21 1 → 41% Idaho ..........: 1 3 13 72 11 Illinois .......: 2 9 30 51 8 Indiana ........: 2 8 30 47 13 Kansas .........: 22 28 32 17 1 → 50% Michigan .......: 2 7 19 59 13 Missouri .......: 8 16 34 37 5 Montana ........: 1 6 24 56 13 Nebraska .......: 2 13 39 41 5 → 15% North Carolina .: 2 17 60 21 Ohio ...........: 1 5 26 52 16 Oklahoma .......: 42 35 19 4 - → 77% Oregon .........: 2 17 59 22 South Dakota ...: 1 1 22 65 11 Texas ..........: 50 26 16 8 - → 76% Washington .....: 1 2 22 60 15 18 States ......: 22 20 25 27 6 → 42% Previous week ..: 20 21 25 28 6 → 41% Previous year ..: 2 6 26 52 14 → 8% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
poor/very poor,78% fair or worse
poor/very poor,82% fair or worse
poor/very poor,54% fair or worse poor/very poor,96% fair or worse poor/very poor,92% fair or worse poor/very poor,67% fair or worse poor/very poor,66% fair or worse poor/very poor,34% fair or worse
Hard Red Winter Wheat: 76%-77% Poor/Very Poor condition in Texas & Oklahoma, 50% in Kansas Soft Red Winter Wheat: 59%-60% Good/Excellent condition in IL & IN, 75% in Ohio, White Wheat: 69%-95% Good/Excellent condition in Pacific Northwest (CA, ID, Montana, OR, WA) % Winter Wheat Headed - Selected States [These 18 States planted 91% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------: Week ending : Hard Red Winter Wheat States :-----------------------------------: Soft Red Winter Wheat States State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------Arkansas ........: 94 93 100 95 Poor HRW wheat conditions in the central 97 97 California ......: 97 95 and southern Great Plains have led to faster Colorado ........: 2 8 9 Idaho ...........: than normal crop development. (see % winter Illinois ........: 39 9 26 36 wheat headed in Oklahoma and Texas) Indiana .........: 12 1 10 15 Kansas ..........: 35 16 34 35 Winter wheat conditions declined slightly in Michigan ........: the last week in the major 18 U.S. winter Missouri ........: 38 27 58 44 wheat states. Montana .........: Nebraska ........: 1 North Carolina ..: 87 87 97 91 Ohio ............: 6 2 Oklahoma ........: 83 85 93 88 Oregon ..........: 1 2 South Dakota ....: Texas ...........: 70 66 80 71 Washington ......: 2 4 18 States .......: 39 33 42 40 ----------------------------------------------------------------
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[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2010 soybean acreage] ----------------------------------------------------------------Wet soil conditions & some flooding have slowed : Week ending : :-----------------------------------: soybean planting in the major Corn Belt States State : May 8, : May 1, : May 8, : 2006-2010 – Illinois: 2% planted vs 14% 5 yr avg : 2010 : 2011 : 2011 : Average ----------------------------------------------------------------- – Iowa: 10% planted vs 18% 5 yr avg Arkansas ........: 40 (NA) 21 30 – Indiana: 0% planted vs 17% 5 yr avg Illinois ........: 30 (NA) 2 14 Indiana .........: 33 (NA) 17 – Minnesota: 2% planted vs 18% 5 yr avg Iowa ............: 40 (NA) 10 18 – Ohio: 0% planted vs 27% 5 yr avg Kansas ..........: 13 (NA) 11 6 Kentucky ........: 10 (NA) 8 – Nebraska: 15% planted vs 14% 5 yr avg Louisiana .......: 50 (NA) 67 58 – Northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, & Michigan ........: 33 (NA) 3 20 Minnesota .......: 37 (NA) 2 18 North Dakota behind, with South Dakota & Mississippi .....: 74 (NA) 42 74 Tennessee off to slow start Missouri ........: 13 (NA) 7 9 Nebraska ........: 23 (NA) 15 14 Kansas soybean planting ahead of schedule: 11% North Carolina ..: 15 (NA) 14 11 planted vs 6% 5 year avg. North Dakota ....: 5 (NA) 6 Ohio ............: 33 (NA) 27 United States corn planting is behind schedule: South Dakota ....: 4 (NA) 1 4 Tennessee .......: 10 (NA) 1 10 7% planted vs 17% 5 year avg. Wisconsin .......: 18 (NA) 2 11 States Affected by flooding: Arkansas, Missouri, 18 States .......: 28 (NA) 7 17
% Soybeans Planted - Selected States
Louisiana & Mississippi -----------------------------------------------------------------
Soil moisture conditions by state (As of Wednesday, May 11th ) (focusing on short term crop moisture index of soil moisture in top 5 feet of soil profile): • • • • •
Iowa: Average conditions throughout Iowa Illinois: Ranging from “Extremely moist” in the south, to “very moist” in the central-Northeast, to average soil moisture conditions in west and north Indiana: “Extremely moist” in southern 2/3 of state; “very moist” in the northern 1/3 of state Ohio: “Extremely moist” in WC, SW, SC; “unusually moist” to “very moist” in remainder of state Missouri: “Extremely moist” in southern 1/3 of state; average weather conditions in remainder of the state
Dry in HRW wheat production areas of Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Kansas. Kansas Crop Moisture Conditions: Either extreme or severe drought in SW, SC, WC, Central Kansas. Moderate drought throughout nearly all of Kansas (except parts of SE Kansas)
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II. Analysis of Recent Price Trends for U.S. Corn, Wheat and Soybeans July 2011 Corn Futures (CBOT)
(November 10, 2010 to May 12, 2011)
July 2011 CBOT Corn Futures Trends July 2011 Corn Futures closed at 6.80 ½ /bu on Th, May 12th th
– Has been declining since April 26 close of $7.72 ¾
Question: Will the market keep trending down into the $6.50 ‐ $6.75 range, given the combination of supply‐demand fundamentals (still positive) and other outside economic & financial factors (uncertain & negative) that are affecting it?
$6.66
Low trade of $5.34 ¾ on 11/23/10
Longer term low close on November 22nd, 2010 Ö Low close of $5.40 ¾
Low of $6.15 ½ on 3/16/11
Focus of the Market: Reaction to May 11th USDA WASDE Report – For MY 2010/11: Indications of demand rationing in MY 2010/11 with U.S. corn ending stocks increasing from 675 mb (5% S/U) in April WASDE up to 730 mb (5.4% S/U) in the May WASDE • US Corn exports & total use reduced 50 mln bu
DEC 2011 Corn Futures (CBOT)
(11/10/10 to 5/12/11)
New Crop DEC 2011 Corn Futures Thursday, 5/12/2011 Close = $6.29
– For MY 2011/12: Initial projection of MY 2011/12 U.S. corn supply‐ demand balance sheet. • 2011 U.S. corn production: 92.2 ma planted / 85.1 ma harvested / 158.7 bu/ac amount to 13.505 bln bu corn crop
Recent Volatility th High Close ‐ $6.81 ½ on April 25 th Low Close ‐ $5.48 on March 15
o If wet weather & planting delays persist, planted acres could drop below 92.2 million → down 1‐3 mln to 89‐91 million ac?
$6.19 ¼
• Total corn use: rationed exports (1.8 bb), more ethanol (5.05 bb), less direct corn feeding (5.1 bb) • Ending stocks to increase to 900 mb (6.7% S/U) in MY 2011/12
$5.48 On 3/15
o At least a 13.5‐14.0 bb 2011 U.S. corn crop needed to maintain & grow U.S. corn ending stocks in MY 2011/12, OR have significant price rationing of usage • U.S. Corn $ = $5.50 ‐ $6.50 /bu ($6.00 /bu), vs $5.25 in MY 2010/11
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JULY 2011 HRW Wheat Futures (KCBT)
(November 10, 2010 to May 12, 2011)
$10.09 ¼
New Crop July 2011 Wheat Futures Thursday, 5/12/11 Close = $8.76 ¼
July 2011 KCBT Wheat Futures Trends
$9.76
A. July 2011 KCBT Wheat Futures closed at $8.76 ¼ on Th., May 12th (down $0.23 3/4 for the day)
Recent Volatility th High‐ $9.76 on April 26 th Low ‐ $7.76 on March 16
– Traded as high as $9.76 on April 26th, and $10.09 ¼ on Feb 9th – Traded as low as $7.76 on March 16th, and $7.19 ¼ on Nov. 16, 2010 $8.50
→ July 2011 KCBT wheat has traded in a range of $8.52 ½ to $9.76 since March 25th
B. Highly volatile markets with KCBT & CBOT wheat futures being affected by CBOT Corn, USD$, & NYMEX Oil futures $7.76
th Focus of the Market: Reaction to May 11 USDA WASDE Report & Crop Conditions for Winter & Spring Wheat – For MY 2010/11: No changes in supply‐demand balance sheet from 839 mb (34.2% S/U) in the May WASDE • World wheat ending stocks (182.2 mmt) & % ending stocks‐to‐use (27.0%) tightened marginally – For MY 2011/12: Initial projection of MY 2011/12 U.S. wheat supply‐demand balance sheet. • 2011 U.S. wheat production: 58.0 ma planted / 48.0 ma harvested / 42.5 bu/ac amount to 2.043 bln bu wheat crop o Spring Wheat Planting Problems: If wet weather & planting delays persist for Spring wheat in the Northern Plains, U.S. spring wheat planted acres could drop below 14.4 million → down 1‐2 mln to 12.4 – 13.4 million ac? o HRW Wheat Production problems in Central & Southern Plains: Expectations of 100 mln bu less Kansas wheat crop (255‐260 mb). With losses of 50‐100 mb+ in TX, OK, CO, could drop U.S. wheat production lower still. • U.S. Wheat Use: rationed exports (1.05 bb vs 1.275 bb in MY 2010/11), more food use (945 mb), more wheat feeding (220 mb) • Ending stocks to decrease to 702 mb (30.7% S/U) in MY 2011/12 (vs 839 mb & 34.2% S/U in MY 2010/11) o Increase World wheat production expected to offset impact of reduced U.S. supplies available in World wheat export markets • U.S. Wheat $ = $6.80 ‐ $8.20 /bu ($7.50 /bu), vs $5.655 in MY 2010/11
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July 2011 Soybean Futures (CBOT)
(November 10, 2010 to May 12, 2011) Thursday, May 12 Closing $ = $13.42 ¾ (up $0.11) Lower trend since May 2nd High of $14.02
$14.02
Ö July 2011 has not traded below $12.78 since March 15th
Focus of the Market: Reaction to May 11th USDA WASDE Report – For MY 2010/11: Indications of demand rationing in MY 2010/11 with U.S. soybean ending stocks increasing from 140 mb (4.2% S/U) in April WASDE up to 170 mb (5.1% S/U) in the May WASDE
$13.07 ½
• US soybean exports & total use reduced 30 mln bu
$12.78
– For MY 2011/12: Initial projection of MY 2011/12 U.S. soybean supply‐ demand balance sheet. • 2011 U.S. soybean production: 76.6 ma planted / 75.7 ma harvested / 43.4 bu/ac amount to 3.285 bln bu soybean crop o If wet weather & planting delays persist for corn, planted acres of soybeans could increase by 1 mln acres or more to 77.6‐78.0 million NOV 2011 Soybean Futures (CBOT) (11/10/10 to 5/12/11)
• Total soybean use: rationed exports (1.54 bb) & more crush (1.655 bb • Ending stocks to be 160 mb (4.8% S/U) in MY 2011/12 o The U.S. soybean production estimate of 3.285 bb is highly tentative given planting and production uncertainty in the U.S. in 2011. • U.S. Soybean $ = $12.00 ‐ $14.00 /bu ($13.00 /bu), vs $11.40 in MY 2010/11
New Crop NOV 2011 Soybean Futures Thursday, 5/12/2011 Close = $13.26 1/4 Recent Volatility th High Close ‐ $13.96 on April 8 th Low Close ‐ $12.38 on March 15
*DEC 2011 Corn ($6.30 ) vs NOV 2011 ($13.26 ¼ ) Price Ratio* = 2.10 on 5/12/2011
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