Graying of Ohio Labor Force
Bureau of Labor Market Information/Office of Workforce Development
The Graying of the Ohio Labor Force
Demographic Changes to 2012 Bob Taft Governor
Tom Hayes Director
Table of Contents List of Charts ............................................................................................................2 Preface.........................................................................................................................3 Overview ....................................................................................................................4 I. Trends in Ohio Population.................................................................................4 II. Trends in Ohio Labor Force .............................................................................7 Working-age population ................................................................................7 Labor force participation rates ......................................................................8 III. Dynamics of the Ohio Labor Force ..............................................................9 Age ...................................................................................................................9 Gender ...........................................................................................................11 Diversity .........................................................................................................14 Entrants and leavers ....................................................................................15 IV. Implications for Workforce Development ...............................................16 Notes and References...........................................................................................17
1
List of Charts and Tables Ohio Population by Age: 1990, 2000 and 2010 ................................................................... 4 Ohio Population by Age and Gender: 1990, 2000 and 2010 ................................................. 5 Ohio Population, Working Age Population and Labor Force: 1992, 2002 and 2012 ................ 7 Ohio Civilian Labor Force Status by Age: 2002 and 2012 ................................................... 7 Ohio Labor Force Estimates by Gender and Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .............................. 8 Ohio Labor Force Participation Rates by Gender: 1992, 2002 and 2012 ............................... 8 Age Distribution of Ohio’s Labor Force: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .............................................. 9 Ohio Labor Force Estimates by Age, Gender and Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .....................10 Changes in the Labor Force by Age: 2002-2012 ................................................................11 Ohio Labor Force by Age and Gender: 2002 and 2012 .......................................................12 Labor Force Participation Rates of Women, Ohio and U.S: 1982-2002. ...............................13 Share of Labor Force by Gender: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .....................................................13 Ohio Labor Force Participation Rates by Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .................................14 Share of Labor Force by Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 ........................................................14
2
Preface Several historical events dramatically shaped the United States and Ohio labor force of the 20th century: most notably the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II, followed by the baby boom. These events continue to have significant impacts on the size, composition and growth of the Ohio population and labor force in the 21st century. Thirty-two years ago I sat down in an overcrowded college class, with all the optimism of youth and the anticipation of how I and my generation might shape the future. The professor looked across our young faces and essentially said, Of all generations, yours is likely to have the most profound implications for our society – shaping and challenging our nation’s institutions, setting new organizational priorities, defining the social and political issues of society, and setting the stage for the next century. Ironically, you will not need the social and scientific breakthroughs demonstrated by prior generations, no great thinkers and leaders, no new political, social or economic thought – no, you will do so merely by the sheer magnitude of your numbers. Thirty-two years later and a bit grayer, I find that there was a fundamental truth to his words. The baby-boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, garners the most attention because of its size (some 75 million). The number of births in the U.S. averaged about four million per year during this period, a number that would not be reached again until 1989. Births, many by women born during the baby boom, continued at around 3.9 – 4.0 million per year through most of the 1990s.1 The impact of the baby boom, baby bust and baby echo is reflected in the large differences of magnitude in age categories over time. One reason for the increased unemployment rates of the 1970s was the inability of the labor market to absorb both the substantially larger number of youth entering the labor market and the increasing participation of women. In the 1990s, media attention was focused on the “birth dearth” as the economy produced a record economic expansion with fewer youth from the baby bust available to meet employer demands for labor. Now attention is beginning to be placed on the potential impact of decreased labor supply as the workers of the baby-boom generation begin to retire. The demographics – age, gender and race – of the Ohio population and labor force play a pivotal role in defining the characteristics of the labor market both today and in the future. This report examines how Ohio’s population and labor force has been aging and how the composition is expected to change into the next decade.
Keith Ewald, Ph.D., Chief Bureau of Labor Market Information October 2004
3
Overview The supply of labor in Ohio is expected to increase by more than 410,000 as the Ohio economy continues to expand over the next decade. This economic report looks at the aging of the baby-boom generation and the changing demographic composition of Ohio’s labor force over the 2002-2012 period. Ohio’s working-age population and labor force will continue to gray, according to projected trends. In addition to growing older, the labor force will become more diverse as more minorities and more women continue to enter the workforce. Population and labor force trends will be illustrated in the first two sections of this report. The third section presents a more in-depth analysis of the labor force dynamics that are occurring in terms of age, gender, diversity, entrants and leavers. The final section discusses the implications of these demographic changes for workforce strategies in maintaining a highly skilled workforce that will respond to employers’ needs.
I. Trends in Ohio Population Due to low birth rates during the Great Depression followed by the nation at war, the cohort of the 1930s and early 1940s was relatively small. Most individuals in this cohort were more than 50 years old by 1990 and had left the labor force by 2002. The baby boom started in 1946 and lasted until 1964. The number of births in a given year peaked in 1957 for both Ohio and the United States.2 This means that the largest increases in the population and labor force occur in those age groups in which the baby boomers fall (see the table below and charts on page 5). For example, the Ohio population in the 45-54 age group increased to 1.566 million in 2000, up more than 450,000 over 1990; the population 55-64 years old is expected to rise to nearly 1.4 million by 2010, a gain of 390,000.
Ohio Population* by Age (in millions) Age**
1990
2000
2010
Total Younger than 5 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older
10.847 .784 1.563 1.575 1.805 1.619 1.115 .979 1.406
11.353 .755 1.644 1.546 1.520 1.805 1.566 1.009 1.508
11.667 .714 1.591 1.678 1.391 1.616 1.753 1.399 1.525
* Data for 1990 and 2000 are from the decennial Census; population for 2010 projected by the Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research, July 2003. **Baby boomers were 26-44 years old in 1990, 36-54 in 2000, and will be 46-64 in 2010.
4
Ohio Population, 1990 and 2000, and Projected 2010 Ohio 1990 Census Population MALE
FEMALE
65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 15-24 5-14
The Graying of the Ohio Labor Force
Demographic Changes to 2012 Bob Taft Governor
Tom Hayes Director
Table of Contents List of Charts ............................................................................................................2 Preface.........................................................................................................................3 Overview ....................................................................................................................4 I. Trends in Ohio Population.................................................................................4 II. Trends in Ohio Labor Force .............................................................................7 Working-age population ................................................................................7 Labor force participation rates ......................................................................8 III. Dynamics of the Ohio Labor Force ..............................................................9 Age ...................................................................................................................9 Gender ...........................................................................................................11 Diversity .........................................................................................................14 Entrants and leavers ....................................................................................15 IV. Implications for Workforce Development ...............................................16 Notes and References...........................................................................................17
1
List of Charts and Tables Ohio Population by Age: 1990, 2000 and 2010 ................................................................... 4 Ohio Population by Age and Gender: 1990, 2000 and 2010 ................................................. 5 Ohio Population, Working Age Population and Labor Force: 1992, 2002 and 2012 ................ 7 Ohio Civilian Labor Force Status by Age: 2002 and 2012 ................................................... 7 Ohio Labor Force Estimates by Gender and Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .............................. 8 Ohio Labor Force Participation Rates by Gender: 1992, 2002 and 2012 ............................... 8 Age Distribution of Ohio’s Labor Force: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .............................................. 9 Ohio Labor Force Estimates by Age, Gender and Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .....................10 Changes in the Labor Force by Age: 2002-2012 ................................................................11 Ohio Labor Force by Age and Gender: 2002 and 2012 .......................................................12 Labor Force Participation Rates of Women, Ohio and U.S: 1982-2002. ...............................13 Share of Labor Force by Gender: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .....................................................13 Ohio Labor Force Participation Rates by Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 .................................14 Share of Labor Force by Race: 1992, 2002 and 2012 ........................................................14
2
Preface Several historical events dramatically shaped the United States and Ohio labor force of the 20th century: most notably the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II, followed by the baby boom. These events continue to have significant impacts on the size, composition and growth of the Ohio population and labor force in the 21st century. Thirty-two years ago I sat down in an overcrowded college class, with all the optimism of youth and the anticipation of how I and my generation might shape the future. The professor looked across our young faces and essentially said, Of all generations, yours is likely to have the most profound implications for our society – shaping and challenging our nation’s institutions, setting new organizational priorities, defining the social and political issues of society, and setting the stage for the next century. Ironically, you will not need the social and scientific breakthroughs demonstrated by prior generations, no great thinkers and leaders, no new political, social or economic thought – no, you will do so merely by the sheer magnitude of your numbers. Thirty-two years later and a bit grayer, I find that there was a fundamental truth to his words. The baby-boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, garners the most attention because of its size (some 75 million). The number of births in the U.S. averaged about four million per year during this period, a number that would not be reached again until 1989. Births, many by women born during the baby boom, continued at around 3.9 – 4.0 million per year through most of the 1990s.1 The impact of the baby boom, baby bust and baby echo is reflected in the large differences of magnitude in age categories over time. One reason for the increased unemployment rates of the 1970s was the inability of the labor market to absorb both the substantially larger number of youth entering the labor market and the increasing participation of women. In the 1990s, media attention was focused on the “birth dearth” as the economy produced a record economic expansion with fewer youth from the baby bust available to meet employer demands for labor. Now attention is beginning to be placed on the potential impact of decreased labor supply as the workers of the baby-boom generation begin to retire. The demographics – age, gender and race – of the Ohio population and labor force play a pivotal role in defining the characteristics of the labor market both today and in the future. This report examines how Ohio’s population and labor force has been aging and how the composition is expected to change into the next decade.
Keith Ewald, Ph.D., Chief Bureau of Labor Market Information October 2004
3
Overview The supply of labor in Ohio is expected to increase by more than 410,000 as the Ohio economy continues to expand over the next decade. This economic report looks at the aging of the baby-boom generation and the changing demographic composition of Ohio’s labor force over the 2002-2012 period. Ohio’s working-age population and labor force will continue to gray, according to projected trends. In addition to growing older, the labor force will become more diverse as more minorities and more women continue to enter the workforce. Population and labor force trends will be illustrated in the first two sections of this report. The third section presents a more in-depth analysis of the labor force dynamics that are occurring in terms of age, gender, diversity, entrants and leavers. The final section discusses the implications of these demographic changes for workforce strategies in maintaining a highly skilled workforce that will respond to employers’ needs.
I. Trends in Ohio Population Due to low birth rates during the Great Depression followed by the nation at war, the cohort of the 1930s and early 1940s was relatively small. Most individuals in this cohort were more than 50 years old by 1990 and had left the labor force by 2002. The baby boom started in 1946 and lasted until 1964. The number of births in a given year peaked in 1957 for both Ohio and the United States.2 This means that the largest increases in the population and labor force occur in those age groups in which the baby boomers fall (see the table below and charts on page 5). For example, the Ohio population in the 45-54 age group increased to 1.566 million in 2000, up more than 450,000 over 1990; the population 55-64 years old is expected to rise to nearly 1.4 million by 2010, a gain of 390,000.
Ohio Population* by Age (in millions) Age**
1990
2000
2010
Total Younger than 5 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older
10.847 .784 1.563 1.575 1.805 1.619 1.115 .979 1.406
11.353 .755 1.644 1.546 1.520 1.805 1.566 1.009 1.508
11.667 .714 1.591 1.678 1.391 1.616 1.753 1.399 1.525
* Data for 1990 and 2000 are from the decennial Census; population for 2010 projected by the Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research, July 2003. **Baby boomers were 26-44 years old in 1990, 36-54 in 2000, and will be 46-64 in 2010.
4
Ohio Population, 1990 and 2000, and Projected 2010 Ohio 1990 Census Population MALE
FEMALE
65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 15-24 5-14
