Hal Levin
7/29/2010
Indoor climate and climate change— a perspective on research needs IOM Workshop: Climate Change, Indoor Air Quality and Public Health Berkeley, California - 14 July 2010 Hal Levin Building Ecology Research Group Santa Cruz, California [email protected]
What’s a building? Architecture – simply put, a building – is always an interface between communication, social structures, economics and use. - (source: unknown) Complexity and contradiction in architecture -
Robert Venturi, (1966). NY: Museum of Modern Art.
“A gentle manifesto for a non-straightforward architecture”
- “Going too far to avoid cliché” -
(Sloane Crosley, Morning Edition, NPR, 11 July 2010)
2
1
7/29/2010
3
Epistemology of indoor air quality (How do we know what we know?) Public (limited by ‘newsworthiness’) TV and radio commercials News sources Technical assistance EPA, state, university, local agency guidance, consultants
Labels (“…conceal more than they reveal” – Sen. Arlen Specter)
Science/gov’t: (limited by available tools, funding) Epidemiology Lab studies Case studies Complaints, investigations
The most important question: What’s important? (Limited by values, perceived self-interest, available information) 4
2
7/29/2010
The most important question - Deciding what’s important: Criteria for Weighting Environmental Problems The spatial scale of the impact (Global, regional, local - large worse than small)
The severity of the hazard (More toxic, dangerous, damaging being worse)
The degree of exposure (Well-sequestered substances being of less concern than readily mobilized substances)
The penalty for being wrong (Longer remediation times of more concern)
The status of the affected sinks (An already overburdened sink more critical than a less-burdened one. Sinks = receptors, or environmental compartments) (Levin, 1996. Best Sustainable Indoor Air Quality Practices in Commercial Buildings, Proceddings: Third Annual Green Buildings Conference, Gaithersburg: NIST.) (US EPA, EPA Science Advisory Board, 1990. “Reducing risks: Setting priorities and strategies for environmental protection”. Report SAB-EC-90-021 and 021a. Washington DC: United States Environmental Protection Agency.)
5
What’s important? (after Nutter)
Nutter, F., Comm. On Effects of CC on IAQ and PH, June 7, 2010.. •Increased thunderstorms •Ignores heat waves (no insurance loss)
•Half are uninsured •What happens to people with no “healthy” place to live? 6
3
7/29/2010
What’s important: Major IEQ hazards of climate change - redefined Environmental – – – – – –
Heat waves, cold spells Ozone Wildfires Floods, Hurricanes Northward migration of vector borne pests, disease Pandemics: spread of disease due to climate, crowding, travel
Human – – – –
Reduced ventilation Increased use of sanitizers, sterilizers, pesticides Availability/cost of energy: electricity, combustion fuel Availability/cost of “shelter from the storm” 7
What’s Important - Levin Fundamental relationships in IAQ: Ventilation Rate and Source Strength to Concentration
Target concentration = 1 µg/m3
Levin, 1991. "Architecture of Healthy Buildings." Proceedings: ASHRAE IAQ '91 -- "Healthy Buildings". American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc.
8
4
7/29/2010
Determination of Outdoor Air flow Rate Using Energy and IAQ Criteria Assumes outdoor air is not at a temperature that would improve the thermal conditions. If building is warm and outdoor air is cool, it actually can reduce energy load to increase ventilation rate (to a point).
(Source: AIVC, 1996. Guide to Energy Efficient Ventilation. 9
http://www.aivc.org/frameset/frameset.html?../Publications/guides/guide_to_eev.html~mainFrame)
SBS Symptom prevalence vs. ventilation rate Sundell, Indoor Air, 1994
It is hard to interpret these data to say what the minimum code vent rate should be for office buildings in the USA -- – Levin, 2006 10
5
7/29/2010
Research Needs (after Brennan and Girman) Low energy (efficient) ventilation, cooling and heating methods for US climates (IEA Annex 28, Subtask 2.b -- Detailed Design Tools for Low Energy Cooling Systems; Huang, LBNL, 2004)
Design [and maintain] pest species out (avoid misuse of pesticides) Mold prevention and remediation Allergens Minimum ventilation rates (one size does not fit all) Source management and filtration to reduce minimum ventilation rates Changing behavior to reduce energy use and improve IAQ
Terry Brennan, Adaptation and mitigation Strategies for buildings in a changed climate, June 7, 2010, National Academy of Sciences Workshop on Climate Change and Indoor Environment John Girman, Research needed to address the impacts of climate change on indoor air quality, July 2010 - http://www.epa.gov/iaq/pubs/index.html
11
Research Needs (after W. W Nazaroff) Reduce carbon emissions: ‘three-twos approach’ – Reduce carbon intensity of electricity generation (e.g., substitute wind for coal, nat gas) – Improve energy efficiency of devices (technology, adoption) – Reduce demand for energy intensive goods and services (conservation ethic)
Buildings: “Low-hanging fruit” – – – – –
European and Japanese buildings use half per m2 compared to U.S. buildings Lighting: “the free lunch they pay you to eat” Solar: manage heat gain and loss through orientation, glazing, shading Solar PV and DHW systems, especially in air-conditioned residences Heat pumps: ground source for cooling/ heating in extreme climates, air for DHW
Appliances: efficiency, behavior Minimum ventilation rates: source reduction, better control Source management and filtration to reduce minimum ventilation rates Changing behavior to reduce energy use and improve IAQ
• Nazaroff, W. W, 2008. Editorial: Climate change, building energy use, and indoor environmental quality. Indoor Air. 18: 259-260. • Nazaroff, W. W, 2010. Editorial: What we don’t know. Indoor Air. 20: 271-272. 12
6
7/29/2010
Climate change, building energy use, and indoor environmental quality Current Global Population average emission rate ≈ 1 tonne C person-1 year-1 (3 kgC p-1 d-1) [1] U.S. current average emission ≈ 15 kgC p-1 d-1 [1] Global target for stable climate in 2100 [350 ppm global average atmospheric CO2] ≈ 1 kgC p-1 d-1 [1] [1] William W Nazaroff, 2008, Indoor Air, 18: 259-260)
Buildings’ current share: ≈ 6 kgC p-1 d-1 2100 target for U.S. buildings: 0.4 kgC p-1 d-1 US residential now average ≈ 3.1 kgC kgC p-1 d-1 U.S. Commercial buildings ≈ 2.8 kgC kgC p-1 d-1 13
Carbon Dioxide Emissions for U.S. Buildings (Million Metric Tons) Carbon Dioxide Emissions for U.S. Buildings (Million Metric Tons)
3000
Million Metric Tons
2500
2000 Site Fossil
1500
Electricity Buildings Total
1000
500
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
(DOE, 2010, Buildings Energy Databook http://buildingsdatabook.eren.doe.gov/)
14
7
7/29/2010
Buildings Share of U.S. Primary Energy Consumption 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010
Res Com 20% 14% 20% 16% 21% 17% 21% 18% 21.5% 18.1%
Bldgs 34% 36% 38% 39% 39.7%
Ind 41% 38% 35% 32% 32.2%
Trans 25% 26% 27% 29% 28.1%
Buildings share ≈ 73% of total U.S. electricity consumption Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook 15
EUI Thermometer office buildings
Source: Griffith, B.; et al. (2007). Assessment of the Technical Potential for Achieving Net ZeroEnergy Buildings in the Commercial Sector. NREL TP-550-41957. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. www.nrel.gov 16
8
7/29/2010
Assessment Results: EUI Thermometer source energy = 3.3 x site electric energy
Site EUI
49.5 (30% better than 90.1-2004)
35.5 (50% better than 90.1-2004)
13.4 (Ave. of low 10% HPB) Modified from: Griffith, B.; et al. (2007). NREL TP-550-41957.. www.nrel.gov
Griffith, B.; et al. (2007).
HPB=High Performance Buildings database; low 10% of offices without attached 17 labs or auditoria
Shares of Non-Residential Building Energy Use Other Vacant
Primary Energy Use
Food Sales Public Order/Safety
Total Floorspace
Food Service Health Care Service Lodging Public Assembly Education Mercantile Warehouse/Storage Office
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percent of non-residential total
Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook
18
9
7/29/2010
Distribution of source energy consumption in U.S. buildings - 2006
Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook 19
Primary energy end-use splits – 2006 data
Commercial buildings
Residential buildings
Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook
HVAC total = 32%
HVAC total = 39.4%
10
7/29/2010
Exploding the myths about building energy use and indoor environmental quality ‘HVAC is the largest energy use in buildings’ – “…plug load now exceeds building systems as the largest consumer of electricity and contributor to indoor heat gain.” –
(James Benya, 2010, SBSE: Is net zero for individual buildings the wrong goal?)
‘Greenhouse Gas Emissions/Energy Use = 1:1’ – In some grid subregions, differences of 2x exist, depending on time of day, day of week, and season. Annual variations too.
‘Tools do exist to predict building energy use’ – the human factor overwhelms the technical factors
‘Adequate outdoor air ventilation ensures good IAQ’ – For certain sources (types, strengths), ventilation cannot prevail – Outdoor air pollutants
‘Energy efficient buildings are more expensive’ – High tech can be more or less expensive to construct, operate – Low tech can work when people have control, information, motivation, or habit 21
Tons of CO2 emissions per MWh for fossil fuel fired power plants in the Northeastern U.S.
Ezra D. Hausman, Jeremy Fisher, and Bruce Biewald, 2009. Analysis of indirect emissions benefits of wind, landfill gas, and municipal solid waste generation : EPA Contract Contract No.: EP07C000079Contract No.: EP07C000079 22
11
7/29/2010
Hourly emissions for New England - 2005
Hausman et al, 2009 23
Differences that matter
Regional slope factors for CO2 emissions tons/MWh
Comparison of the distribution of the CO2 emissions by region
Hausman et al, 2009
24
12
7/29/2010
Hourly average CO2 emissions rates by grid subregions per MWh
Hausman et al, 2009
25
Hourly average CO2 emissions rates by grid subregions per MWh
Hausman et al, 2009
26
13
7/29/2010
Annual emissions profile – California Electricity Dispatch Model for 2010
- McCarthy et al, 2009. Interactions between electric-drive vehicles and the power sector in California EVS24 Stavanger, Norway, May 13-16, 2009
27
Sample outputs from the CED model emissions profile – California Electricity Dispatch Model for 2010 - McCarthy et al, 2009.
28
14
7/29/2010
How are the effects of projected climate change most likely to affect IEQ and occupant health? Susceptible sites: – – – –
Low lying, coastal zones Rain or drought prone sites Heat wave propensity Cold spell propensity
Susceptible occupants: – – – – –
Young Elderly Infirm allergic, asthmatic sensitive
Risks inherent in projected effects of climate change – Vector borne disease – Wildfires – Flooding
29
How are buildings really designed, built and operated? What do architects and engineers design? – Few buildings – Small fraction of occupied space
Do buildings follow codes, standards, and regulations? – Not very much, certainly not all the time
So who designs buildings? – – – – –
Lenders Insurance companies Contractors Workers Product manufacturers 30
15
7/29/2010
Why building (indoor air) science fails People are not all alike Buildings are not all alike Climates are not all alike Sites are not all alike Building ecology: Building-environment-human interactions are extremely complex and highly particularized Thus, there are limits to the utility of epidemiology. Lab studies, modeling, and empirical validation may be more cost-effective More refined discrimination of indoor air pollutants (no TVOC) More refined discrimination of human responses (no more SBS) 31
Assumptions People are not all alike Buildings are not all alike
Climates are not all alike Sites are not all alike
32
16
7/29/2010
Why buildings fail: Which of the following is true? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Science Codes Design Construction Operation Maintenance Use Occupant behavior
Answer: all of the above, in reverse of listed order 33
Learning from the past: Earthquakes The majority of building failures in seismic events are not due to a lack of science – Improper siting – unconsolidated soils, liquefaction zones – Poor design – codes, uneducated designers, building officials – Architecture first, then engineering (form, then detail) – Construction defects – Misuse 34
17
7/29/2010
Learning from the past: indoor air quality The majority of building air quality failures are not due to a lack of science – Improper siting – poor outdoor air quality, high water table, flood zone, hurricane/tornado zone – Poor design – codes, uneducated designers, building officials – Architecture first, then engineering (Where does air come in, how is it treated and distributed?) – Construction defects (wet materials, poor procedures) – Misuse (type and frequency of use of pollutant sources 35
Problems/Research Needs for building science T and RH used for design and operation of buildings without regard to IAQ. Mølhave et al, 1993, Indoor Air 3: 155-169. Vent rates established to control pollutants without regard to T and RH and their impacts on occupant responses, survivability of micro-organisms. PNAS 106: 16393-16399; J. R. Soc Interface 2009, 6: S747-S800. ASHRAE, 2010. Ventilation for acceptable indoor air quality, Standard 62.1.
Need to connect the various aspects of the IE in an integrated model and need research to elucidate the major interactions. See GDL 10 for review of what is know and important. ASHRAE, 2010. Guideline 10P, 2nd PRD. ASHRAE, 2009, Indoor Air Quality Guide.
Behavior Stolwijk, J., 1984. Proc. Indoor Air ‘84. 1: 23-30; Newman, 1972,
Defensible Space; Sommer, 1969, Personal Space; Murphy, 2006, Sick Building Syndrome and the Problem of Uncertainty; Ackerman, 2002, Cool Comfort. 36
18
7/29/2010
Evolution of IA science: A story of disaggregation and speciation Industrial hygiene constructs: CFU/m3, TVOC, PM10, asbestos (1970s-1980s). Compare ventilation system types: natural, mechanical, air-conditioned, humidified (Roberstson, Pickering, et al. 1984)
Refined tools – speciated microbial samples and VOC samples; TEM asbestos identification/counts; tracer gas ventilation rates (mid 1980s – early 2000s). PM2.5, Ultra-fine particles, strains of microbial species, reactive organic compounds, source-to-effect characterization (mid-2000s ↗ ? Particle speciation, microbial genetics, SVOCs… 37
Beyond speciation to genome-based research: A new model: successful indoor air science/practice? Sloan Foundation funding studies of indoor microbial ecology, utilizing modern genetic analytical tools. Network microbial-ecologists with indoor and building scientists for research collaboration. Microbial ecologist develop tools for indoor air scientists and practitioners. Microbial ecologist collaborate with indoor air scientists. Indoor air science advances. Training of indoor air practitioners – healthy buildings! 38
19
7/29/2010
Learning from the past
“Environment and Society emphatically rejects these environmental myths: “… Environmental problems are being solved.” “…Better science will solve our environmental crisis”
(Allan Schnaiberg and Kenneth Alan Gould, 2000, Environment and Society. The Blackburn Press) 39
From lab to regulation, science to code There is roughly a 35 year lag time between science and appearance in codes (Donald Schon, 1967. Technology and Change. NY: Dell Books).
Designers (architects, engineers, interior designers, project facilitators, etc.) attempt to read/interpret their clients intentions/desires and to fulfill them (to the extent they understand them). If the client doesn’t ask for good indoor air quality, it is simply not on the agenda of most designers. 40
20
7/29/2010
What are the most important potential interventions? Behavioral - designers Behavioral - builders Behavioral - occupants (Did I mention behavioral yet?) Physical Medical Educational Technical 41
3 Research Needs Communication: How to effectively communicate what we know to building professionals and occupants Integrated design (and operation too): everyone preaches it, almost nobody does it or even really knows how to do it Source control: less harmful products to help make our lives healthier and (perhaps) easier 42
21
7/29/2010
The biggest need of all…Consciousness change without a Pearl Harbor or a Sputnik: More individual/community level feedback on the hazards of poor IAQ and predicted/observed CC Pro-active regulation of important pollutant sources Non-monetary cost-benefit analysis that considers morbidity/mortality “real” costs and that emphasizes quality of life 43
Sunrise or sunset?
Thank you. 44
22
Indoor climate and climate change— a perspective on research needs IOM Workshop: Climate Change, Indoor Air Quality and Public Health Berkeley, California - 14 July 2010 Hal Levin Building Ecology Research Group Santa Cruz, California [email protected]
What’s a building? Architecture – simply put, a building – is always an interface between communication, social structures, economics and use. - (source: unknown) Complexity and contradiction in architecture -
Robert Venturi, (1966). NY: Museum of Modern Art.
“A gentle manifesto for a non-straightforward architecture”
- “Going too far to avoid cliché” -
(Sloane Crosley, Morning Edition, NPR, 11 July 2010)
2
1
7/29/2010
3
Epistemology of indoor air quality (How do we know what we know?) Public (limited by ‘newsworthiness’) TV and radio commercials News sources Technical assistance EPA, state, university, local agency guidance, consultants
Labels (“…conceal more than they reveal” – Sen. Arlen Specter)
Science/gov’t: (limited by available tools, funding) Epidemiology Lab studies Case studies Complaints, investigations
The most important question: What’s important? (Limited by values, perceived self-interest, available information) 4
2
7/29/2010
The most important question - Deciding what’s important: Criteria for Weighting Environmental Problems The spatial scale of the impact (Global, regional, local - large worse than small)
The severity of the hazard (More toxic, dangerous, damaging being worse)
The degree of exposure (Well-sequestered substances being of less concern than readily mobilized substances)
The penalty for being wrong (Longer remediation times of more concern)
The status of the affected sinks (An already overburdened sink more critical than a less-burdened one. Sinks = receptors, or environmental compartments) (Levin, 1996. Best Sustainable Indoor Air Quality Practices in Commercial Buildings, Proceddings: Third Annual Green Buildings Conference, Gaithersburg: NIST.) (US EPA, EPA Science Advisory Board, 1990. “Reducing risks: Setting priorities and strategies for environmental protection”. Report SAB-EC-90-021 and 021a. Washington DC: United States Environmental Protection Agency.)
5
What’s important? (after Nutter)
Nutter, F., Comm. On Effects of CC on IAQ and PH, June 7, 2010.. •Increased thunderstorms •Ignores heat waves (no insurance loss)
•Half are uninsured •What happens to people with no “healthy” place to live? 6
3
7/29/2010
What’s important: Major IEQ hazards of climate change - redefined Environmental – – – – – –
Heat waves, cold spells Ozone Wildfires Floods, Hurricanes Northward migration of vector borne pests, disease Pandemics: spread of disease due to climate, crowding, travel
Human – – – –
Reduced ventilation Increased use of sanitizers, sterilizers, pesticides Availability/cost of energy: electricity, combustion fuel Availability/cost of “shelter from the storm” 7
What’s Important - Levin Fundamental relationships in IAQ: Ventilation Rate and Source Strength to Concentration
Target concentration = 1 µg/m3
Levin, 1991. "Architecture of Healthy Buildings." Proceedings: ASHRAE IAQ '91 -- "Healthy Buildings". American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc.
8
4
7/29/2010
Determination of Outdoor Air flow Rate Using Energy and IAQ Criteria Assumes outdoor air is not at a temperature that would improve the thermal conditions. If building is warm and outdoor air is cool, it actually can reduce energy load to increase ventilation rate (to a point).
(Source: AIVC, 1996. Guide to Energy Efficient Ventilation. 9
http://www.aivc.org/frameset/frameset.html?../Publications/guides/guide_to_eev.html~mainFrame)
SBS Symptom prevalence vs. ventilation rate Sundell, Indoor Air, 1994
It is hard to interpret these data to say what the minimum code vent rate should be for office buildings in the USA -- – Levin, 2006 10
5
7/29/2010
Research Needs (after Brennan and Girman) Low energy (efficient) ventilation, cooling and heating methods for US climates (IEA Annex 28, Subtask 2.b -- Detailed Design Tools for Low Energy Cooling Systems; Huang, LBNL, 2004)
Design [and maintain] pest species out (avoid misuse of pesticides) Mold prevention and remediation Allergens Minimum ventilation rates (one size does not fit all) Source management and filtration to reduce minimum ventilation rates Changing behavior to reduce energy use and improve IAQ
Terry Brennan, Adaptation and mitigation Strategies for buildings in a changed climate, June 7, 2010, National Academy of Sciences Workshop on Climate Change and Indoor Environment John Girman, Research needed to address the impacts of climate change on indoor air quality, July 2010 - http://www.epa.gov/iaq/pubs/index.html
11
Research Needs (after W. W Nazaroff) Reduce carbon emissions: ‘three-twos approach’ – Reduce carbon intensity of electricity generation (e.g., substitute wind for coal, nat gas) – Improve energy efficiency of devices (technology, adoption) – Reduce demand for energy intensive goods and services (conservation ethic)
Buildings: “Low-hanging fruit” – – – – –
European and Japanese buildings use half per m2 compared to U.S. buildings Lighting: “the free lunch they pay you to eat” Solar: manage heat gain and loss through orientation, glazing, shading Solar PV and DHW systems, especially in air-conditioned residences Heat pumps: ground source for cooling/ heating in extreme climates, air for DHW
Appliances: efficiency, behavior Minimum ventilation rates: source reduction, better control Source management and filtration to reduce minimum ventilation rates Changing behavior to reduce energy use and improve IAQ
• Nazaroff, W. W, 2008. Editorial: Climate change, building energy use, and indoor environmental quality. Indoor Air. 18: 259-260. • Nazaroff, W. W, 2010. Editorial: What we don’t know. Indoor Air. 20: 271-272. 12
6
7/29/2010
Climate change, building energy use, and indoor environmental quality Current Global Population average emission rate ≈ 1 tonne C person-1 year-1 (3 kgC p-1 d-1) [1] U.S. current average emission ≈ 15 kgC p-1 d-1 [1] Global target for stable climate in 2100 [350 ppm global average atmospheric CO2] ≈ 1 kgC p-1 d-1 [1] [1] William W Nazaroff, 2008, Indoor Air, 18: 259-260)
Buildings’ current share: ≈ 6 kgC p-1 d-1 2100 target for U.S. buildings: 0.4 kgC p-1 d-1 US residential now average ≈ 3.1 kgC kgC p-1 d-1 U.S. Commercial buildings ≈ 2.8 kgC kgC p-1 d-1 13
Carbon Dioxide Emissions for U.S. Buildings (Million Metric Tons) Carbon Dioxide Emissions for U.S. Buildings (Million Metric Tons)
3000
Million Metric Tons
2500
2000 Site Fossil
1500
Electricity Buildings Total
1000
500
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
(DOE, 2010, Buildings Energy Databook http://buildingsdatabook.eren.doe.gov/)
14
7
7/29/2010
Buildings Share of U.S. Primary Energy Consumption 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010
Res Com 20% 14% 20% 16% 21% 17% 21% 18% 21.5% 18.1%
Bldgs 34% 36% 38% 39% 39.7%
Ind 41% 38% 35% 32% 32.2%
Trans 25% 26% 27% 29% 28.1%
Buildings share ≈ 73% of total U.S. electricity consumption Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook 15
EUI Thermometer office buildings
Source: Griffith, B.; et al. (2007). Assessment of the Technical Potential for Achieving Net ZeroEnergy Buildings in the Commercial Sector. NREL TP-550-41957. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. www.nrel.gov 16
8
7/29/2010
Assessment Results: EUI Thermometer source energy = 3.3 x site electric energy
Site EUI
49.5 (30% better than 90.1-2004)
35.5 (50% better than 90.1-2004)
13.4 (Ave. of low 10% HPB) Modified from: Griffith, B.; et al. (2007). NREL TP-550-41957.. www.nrel.gov
Griffith, B.; et al. (2007).
HPB=High Performance Buildings database; low 10% of offices without attached 17 labs or auditoria
Shares of Non-Residential Building Energy Use Other Vacant
Primary Energy Use
Food Sales Public Order/Safety
Total Floorspace
Food Service Health Care Service Lodging Public Assembly Education Mercantile Warehouse/Storage Office
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percent of non-residential total
Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook
18
9
7/29/2010
Distribution of source energy consumption in U.S. buildings - 2006
Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook 19
Primary energy end-use splits – 2006 data
Commercial buildings
Residential buildings
Source: Department of Energy: 2009 Buildings Energy Databook
HVAC total = 32%
HVAC total = 39.4%
10
7/29/2010
Exploding the myths about building energy use and indoor environmental quality ‘HVAC is the largest energy use in buildings’ – “…plug load now exceeds building systems as the largest consumer of electricity and contributor to indoor heat gain.” –
(James Benya, 2010, SBSE: Is net zero for individual buildings the wrong goal?)
‘Greenhouse Gas Emissions/Energy Use = 1:1’ – In some grid subregions, differences of 2x exist, depending on time of day, day of week, and season. Annual variations too.
‘Tools do exist to predict building energy use’ – the human factor overwhelms the technical factors
‘Adequate outdoor air ventilation ensures good IAQ’ – For certain sources (types, strengths), ventilation cannot prevail – Outdoor air pollutants
‘Energy efficient buildings are more expensive’ – High tech can be more or less expensive to construct, operate – Low tech can work when people have control, information, motivation, or habit 21
Tons of CO2 emissions per MWh for fossil fuel fired power plants in the Northeastern U.S.
Ezra D. Hausman, Jeremy Fisher, and Bruce Biewald, 2009. Analysis of indirect emissions benefits of wind, landfill gas, and municipal solid waste generation : EPA Contract Contract No.: EP07C000079Contract No.: EP07C000079 22
11
7/29/2010
Hourly emissions for New England - 2005
Hausman et al, 2009 23
Differences that matter
Regional slope factors for CO2 emissions tons/MWh
Comparison of the distribution of the CO2 emissions by region
Hausman et al, 2009
24
12
7/29/2010
Hourly average CO2 emissions rates by grid subregions per MWh
Hausman et al, 2009
25
Hourly average CO2 emissions rates by grid subregions per MWh
Hausman et al, 2009
26
13
7/29/2010
Annual emissions profile – California Electricity Dispatch Model for 2010
- McCarthy et al, 2009. Interactions between electric-drive vehicles and the power sector in California EVS24 Stavanger, Norway, May 13-16, 2009
27
Sample outputs from the CED model emissions profile – California Electricity Dispatch Model for 2010 - McCarthy et al, 2009.
28
14
7/29/2010
How are the effects of projected climate change most likely to affect IEQ and occupant health? Susceptible sites: – – – –
Low lying, coastal zones Rain or drought prone sites Heat wave propensity Cold spell propensity
Susceptible occupants: – – – – –
Young Elderly Infirm allergic, asthmatic sensitive
Risks inherent in projected effects of climate change – Vector borne disease – Wildfires – Flooding
29
How are buildings really designed, built and operated? What do architects and engineers design? – Few buildings – Small fraction of occupied space
Do buildings follow codes, standards, and regulations? – Not very much, certainly not all the time
So who designs buildings? – – – – –
Lenders Insurance companies Contractors Workers Product manufacturers 30
15
7/29/2010
Why building (indoor air) science fails People are not all alike Buildings are not all alike Climates are not all alike Sites are not all alike Building ecology: Building-environment-human interactions are extremely complex and highly particularized Thus, there are limits to the utility of epidemiology. Lab studies, modeling, and empirical validation may be more cost-effective More refined discrimination of indoor air pollutants (no TVOC) More refined discrimination of human responses (no more SBS) 31
Assumptions People are not all alike Buildings are not all alike
Climates are not all alike Sites are not all alike
32
16
7/29/2010
Why buildings fail: Which of the following is true? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Science Codes Design Construction Operation Maintenance Use Occupant behavior
Answer: all of the above, in reverse of listed order 33
Learning from the past: Earthquakes The majority of building failures in seismic events are not due to a lack of science – Improper siting – unconsolidated soils, liquefaction zones – Poor design – codes, uneducated designers, building officials – Architecture first, then engineering (form, then detail) – Construction defects – Misuse 34
17
7/29/2010
Learning from the past: indoor air quality The majority of building air quality failures are not due to a lack of science – Improper siting – poor outdoor air quality, high water table, flood zone, hurricane/tornado zone – Poor design – codes, uneducated designers, building officials – Architecture first, then engineering (Where does air come in, how is it treated and distributed?) – Construction defects (wet materials, poor procedures) – Misuse (type and frequency of use of pollutant sources 35
Problems/Research Needs for building science T and RH used for design and operation of buildings without regard to IAQ. Mølhave et al, 1993, Indoor Air 3: 155-169. Vent rates established to control pollutants without regard to T and RH and their impacts on occupant responses, survivability of micro-organisms. PNAS 106: 16393-16399; J. R. Soc Interface 2009, 6: S747-S800. ASHRAE, 2010. Ventilation for acceptable indoor air quality, Standard 62.1.
Need to connect the various aspects of the IE in an integrated model and need research to elucidate the major interactions. See GDL 10 for review of what is know and important. ASHRAE, 2010. Guideline 10P, 2nd PRD. ASHRAE, 2009, Indoor Air Quality Guide.
Behavior Stolwijk, J., 1984. Proc. Indoor Air ‘84. 1: 23-30; Newman, 1972,
Defensible Space; Sommer, 1969, Personal Space; Murphy, 2006, Sick Building Syndrome and the Problem of Uncertainty; Ackerman, 2002, Cool Comfort. 36
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Evolution of IA science: A story of disaggregation and speciation Industrial hygiene constructs: CFU/m3, TVOC, PM10, asbestos (1970s-1980s). Compare ventilation system types: natural, mechanical, air-conditioned, humidified (Roberstson, Pickering, et al. 1984)
Refined tools – speciated microbial samples and VOC samples; TEM asbestos identification/counts; tracer gas ventilation rates (mid 1980s – early 2000s). PM2.5, Ultra-fine particles, strains of microbial species, reactive organic compounds, source-to-effect characterization (mid-2000s ↗ ? Particle speciation, microbial genetics, SVOCs… 37
Beyond speciation to genome-based research: A new model: successful indoor air science/practice? Sloan Foundation funding studies of indoor microbial ecology, utilizing modern genetic analytical tools. Network microbial-ecologists with indoor and building scientists for research collaboration. Microbial ecologist develop tools for indoor air scientists and practitioners. Microbial ecologist collaborate with indoor air scientists. Indoor air science advances. Training of indoor air practitioners – healthy buildings! 38
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Learning from the past
“Environment and Society emphatically rejects these environmental myths: “… Environmental problems are being solved.” “…Better science will solve our environmental crisis”
(Allan Schnaiberg and Kenneth Alan Gould, 2000, Environment and Society. The Blackburn Press) 39
From lab to regulation, science to code There is roughly a 35 year lag time between science and appearance in codes (Donald Schon, 1967. Technology and Change. NY: Dell Books).
Designers (architects, engineers, interior designers, project facilitators, etc.) attempt to read/interpret their clients intentions/desires and to fulfill them (to the extent they understand them). If the client doesn’t ask for good indoor air quality, it is simply not on the agenda of most designers. 40
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What are the most important potential interventions? Behavioral - designers Behavioral - builders Behavioral - occupants (Did I mention behavioral yet?) Physical Medical Educational Technical 41
3 Research Needs Communication: How to effectively communicate what we know to building professionals and occupants Integrated design (and operation too): everyone preaches it, almost nobody does it or even really knows how to do it Source control: less harmful products to help make our lives healthier and (perhaps) easier 42
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The biggest need of all…Consciousness change without a Pearl Harbor or a Sputnik: More individual/community level feedback on the hazards of poor IAQ and predicted/observed CC Pro-active regulation of important pollutant sources Non-monetary cost-benefit analysis that considers morbidity/mortality “real” costs and that emphasizes quality of life 43
Sunrise or sunset?
Thank you. 44
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