Harvard University: Institute of Politics
Harvard University: Institute of Politics The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service October 22, 2008
Overview and Turnout.
2
Overview •
Methodology – Between September 12 and October 6, 2008 we conducted N=2,406 interviews with 18-24 year olds – n=1,214 interviews with undergraduates (representing 839 colleges) and n=1,192 with those not in college; data was weighted to accurately reflect the college - non-college population – All interviews were conducted online by our research partner Harris Interactive
•
Profile of the sample – 36% Democrat, 25% Republican, 39% Independent – 89% own a cell phone, 41% a landline – 11% in HS, 27% in 4-year college, 43% not enrolled in any school
3
2004 saw highest youth turnout in 32 years Voter Turnout Among 18 to 21 Year Olds 50.00 Percent of eligible voters
48.25
43.75 41.80 39.78
38.98
37.50
36.45
37.40 33.73
31.25
31.25 29.53
25.00 1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Source: U.S. Census “Current Population Surveys”
4
2004
‘04: ~1.3 million more votes cast by “Millennials” than “Seniors”
Based on Exit Poll results, there were approximately 20.7 million votes cast by 18-29 year olds and 19.4 million votes cast by voters age 65 or older (Total: 121,480,019). Exit Polls do not include absentee ballots; likely underestimates young voter turnout. Source: CNN.com
5
2008 primary and caucus turnout up sharply [Youth vote:18-29] IA: Tripled
TN: Quadrupled
TX: Nearly Tripled
Youth vote at least doubled Youth vote increased between 50% and 100% No comparable data available
10/20/08
No difference
Source: Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE)
7
6
Three Drivers of Increased Participation
Attitudes
Mobilization
Technology
7
The Horse Race.
8
Obama Leads McCain by 26 Points If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote? (n=2119) 56%
55%
53%
32%
32%
30%
57% of Senator Obama’s voters are interested in volunteering on his campaign; 47% of Senator McCain’s voters feel the same way.
Spring 2008
Summer 2008
Obama
Fall 2008
McCain 9
On Obama: “He speaks to my generation in a way that no other candidate has and actually addresses the concerns that are specific to us. He represents change and hope in a political climate that is falling apart in a way that speaks to even the most cynical and bitter citizen.” - 18 year-old white male at Oregon State
10
On McCain “McCain has the character, experience, and policy that will restore America's greatness. His pick of Sarah Palin has also enhanced his bona fides.” - 19 year old white male, enrolled at University of Texas at Dallas
11
Obama favored on 8 of 10 issues Which candidate do you trust more to handle each of these issues? [Net Difference, Obama over McCain] Commander in Chief Terrorism Immigration Reform Foreign Policy Iraq Oil/Gas Prices Economy Health Care Bring Change to DC Improve Image Abroad
-3% -3% 1% 1% 9% 11%
Summer 2008 Fall 2008
11% 13% 12%
16% 19% 22% 19% 18%
23% 28% 30% 31% 30%
34%
12
Palin did not help, likely hurt the ticket Thinking about each candidate, how would you say that his choice of running mate affects your likelihood to vote for him?
More Likely Less Likely No Effect
21% 60%
35%
25%
19% 40% 13
The Top Issues.
14
Economy is 10X the issue it was one year ago Thinking about national issues for a moment, which issue concerns you most? [Open-ended] 53%
37% 30% 20%
9%
10%
9%
5%
5%
Economy
War in Iraq Fall 2007
Spring 2008
Health Care Fall 2008 15
The 44th President.
16
Clinton preferred model among all voters Which previous or current President would you like our next president to be most like? [OPEN-ENDED] 30% Obama Voters McCain Voters 21% 14% 9%
Clinton
Reagan
11%
9%
FDR
17
Public Service.
18
59% personally interested in public service
In a few months, a new President will be inaugurated and it is very likely that either President Obama or President McCain will make a special call to young Americans. Similar to John F. Kennedy’s call in 1961, the next President may ask young Americans to engage in some form of public or national service to help the country. How interested are you in personally engaging in some form of public service?
59% Interested.
19
Nearly half would consider role in government Please indicate below the ways in which you would consider engaging in public service. Please select all that apply. (n=1417) Part-time in community
75%
Work for government
47%
Internet collaboration
32%
Political campaign
32%
Foreign service National service
25% 23%
Military
17%
Political office
17% 20
Mobilization.
21
Absentee voting will play a prominent role
Among college students who “definitely” plan to vote:
79% of all 18-24 year olds say they are registered; 41% of college students were encouraged to register to vote;
Early 9%
Absentee 44%
Polling place 48%
53% of college students were encouraged to vote.
22
Old and New Media.
23
Differences on and off-campus on news source Of the following sources for news, please indicate below the two places you turn to most often for news on the campaign for President. - SPRING 2008 STUDY 35% 37%
Cable news 31% 28%
Broadcast news 21%
Another Internet source
35% 16%
Local newspaper (HC)
10% 12%
Radio
9% 6% 8%
National newspaper (OL) National newspaper (HC)
2% 8%
Non-college
College
24
25
Overview and Turnout.
2
Overview •
Methodology – Between September 12 and October 6, 2008 we conducted N=2,406 interviews with 18-24 year olds – n=1,214 interviews with undergraduates (representing 839 colleges) and n=1,192 with those not in college; data was weighted to accurately reflect the college - non-college population – All interviews were conducted online by our research partner Harris Interactive
•
Profile of the sample – 36% Democrat, 25% Republican, 39% Independent – 89% own a cell phone, 41% a landline – 11% in HS, 27% in 4-year college, 43% not enrolled in any school
3
2004 saw highest youth turnout in 32 years Voter Turnout Among 18 to 21 Year Olds 50.00 Percent of eligible voters
48.25
43.75 41.80 39.78
38.98
37.50
36.45
37.40 33.73
31.25
31.25 29.53
25.00 1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Source: U.S. Census “Current Population Surveys”
4
2004
‘04: ~1.3 million more votes cast by “Millennials” than “Seniors”
Based on Exit Poll results, there were approximately 20.7 million votes cast by 18-29 year olds and 19.4 million votes cast by voters age 65 or older (Total: 121,480,019). Exit Polls do not include absentee ballots; likely underestimates young voter turnout. Source: CNN.com
5
2008 primary and caucus turnout up sharply [Youth vote:18-29] IA: Tripled
TN: Quadrupled
TX: Nearly Tripled
Youth vote at least doubled Youth vote increased between 50% and 100% No comparable data available
10/20/08
No difference
Source: Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE)
7
6
Three Drivers of Increased Participation
Attitudes
Mobilization
Technology
7
The Horse Race.
8
Obama Leads McCain by 26 Points If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote? (n=2119) 56%
55%
53%
32%
32%
30%
57% of Senator Obama’s voters are interested in volunteering on his campaign; 47% of Senator McCain’s voters feel the same way.
Spring 2008
Summer 2008
Obama
Fall 2008
McCain 9
On Obama: “He speaks to my generation in a way that no other candidate has and actually addresses the concerns that are specific to us. He represents change and hope in a political climate that is falling apart in a way that speaks to even the most cynical and bitter citizen.” - 18 year-old white male at Oregon State
10
On McCain “McCain has the character, experience, and policy that will restore America's greatness. His pick of Sarah Palin has also enhanced his bona fides.” - 19 year old white male, enrolled at University of Texas at Dallas
11
Obama favored on 8 of 10 issues Which candidate do you trust more to handle each of these issues? [Net Difference, Obama over McCain] Commander in Chief Terrorism Immigration Reform Foreign Policy Iraq Oil/Gas Prices Economy Health Care Bring Change to DC Improve Image Abroad
-3% -3% 1% 1% 9% 11%
Summer 2008 Fall 2008
11% 13% 12%
16% 19% 22% 19% 18%
23% 28% 30% 31% 30%
34%
12
Palin did not help, likely hurt the ticket Thinking about each candidate, how would you say that his choice of running mate affects your likelihood to vote for him?
More Likely Less Likely No Effect
21% 60%
35%
25%
19% 40% 13
The Top Issues.
14
Economy is 10X the issue it was one year ago Thinking about national issues for a moment, which issue concerns you most? [Open-ended] 53%
37% 30% 20%
9%
10%
9%
5%
5%
Economy
War in Iraq Fall 2007
Spring 2008
Health Care Fall 2008 15
The 44th President.
16
Clinton preferred model among all voters Which previous or current President would you like our next president to be most like? [OPEN-ENDED] 30% Obama Voters McCain Voters 21% 14% 9%
Clinton
Reagan
11%
9%
FDR
17
Public Service.
18
59% personally interested in public service
In a few months, a new President will be inaugurated and it is very likely that either President Obama or President McCain will make a special call to young Americans. Similar to John F. Kennedy’s call in 1961, the next President may ask young Americans to engage in some form of public or national service to help the country. How interested are you in personally engaging in some form of public service?
59% Interested.
19
Nearly half would consider role in government Please indicate below the ways in which you would consider engaging in public service. Please select all that apply. (n=1417) Part-time in community
75%
Work for government
47%
Internet collaboration
32%
Political campaign
32%
Foreign service National service
25% 23%
Military
17%
Political office
17% 20
Mobilization.
21
Absentee voting will play a prominent role
Among college students who “definitely” plan to vote:
79% of all 18-24 year olds say they are registered; 41% of college students were encouraged to register to vote;
Early 9%
Absentee 44%
Polling place 48%
53% of college students were encouraged to vote.
22
Old and New Media.
23
Differences on and off-campus on news source Of the following sources for news, please indicate below the two places you turn to most often for news on the campaign for President. - SPRING 2008 STUDY 35% 37%
Cable news 31% 28%
Broadcast news 21%
Another Internet source
35% 16%
Local newspaper (HC)
10% 12%
Radio
9% 6% 8%
National newspaper (OL) National newspaper (HC)
2% 8%
Non-college
College
24
25
