Housing market

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Housing market Capital city market report Prepared March 2014 Dr Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

apm.com.au | 1800 817 616 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

Housing market report Housing markets continue to rise with lower rates

National overview Australian housing markets continue to provide positive indications of ongoing resilience in both buyer and seller activity. Historically low interest rates have fuelled significant improvements in affordability and this has continued to activate buyers at the highest levels for four years in most centres. Although the Reserve Bank has decided to leave interest rates on hold again over March, mortgage costs continue to fall as banks compete vigorously for market share. Signs are emerging of a more positive outlook for the national economy with construction, exports, retail sales, business profits and confidence on the rise. Unemployment however remains a concern, with the national rate at its highest level since 2003.

However much will depend on the direction of the jobs market – particularly in Melbourne where unemployment levels are the highest since 1999 and set to continue rising. Sydney remains the super-star of capital city housing markets, with a record auction clearance rate reported over February for that month – and just below the all-time record set in September last year. Melbourne has also begun the year in a positive manner with clearance rates over February higher than December last year. Other housing markets are also exhibiting increased buyer and seller activity, in a generally robust environment, is set to continue at least through to mid-year.

The Reserve Bank will likely leave rates on hold over the short term, however it is also likely that the current easing cycle is over.

Yearly median price growth, Top 10, Dec Qtr ‘13

Median prices, national $600k

Houses

16.2%

Sydney Houses 12.5%

Melbourne Houses

11.6%

Sydney Units

$500k

10.5%

Darwin Units

10.1%

Perth Houses

Units

6.4%

Perth Units

5.8%

Melbourne Units

$400k

4.5%

Brisbane Houses Adelaide Houses

Jul 13

Change since last month

3.2%

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jul 06

Darwin Houses

Jan 07

$300k

3.4%

p

2.7%

p

4.5%

p

0.9%

p

1.8%

p

3.7%

q

-3.6%

p

2.3%

p

2.3%

p

1.2%

q -10.4%

source: APM

source: APM

Median prices: 3 months to end January 2014

Houses

Units Jan 2014

Quarterly change

Yearly change

Jan 2014

Quarterly change

Yearly change

Sydney

$767,637

3.6%

16.2%

$541,811

2.4%

11.6%

Melbourne

$601,688

2.9%

12.5%

$415,522

1.0%

5.8%

Brisbane

$461,642

1.4%

4.5%

$362,576

-0.9%

1.0%

Adelaide

$449,819

2.0%

3.4%

$277,183

-2.0%

-0.7%

Perth

$615,344

2.3%

10.1%

$399,594

0.2%

6.4%

Canberra

$568,518

0.0%

0.0%

$416,819

-0.7%

0.9%

Gold Coast

$481,250

0.3%

2.4%

$350,649

0.2%

1.6%

National

$609,034

2.7%

11.3%

$456,632

1.4%

8.0%

National | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

2

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Housing market report Sydney

Quick stats

The Sydney housing market continues to lead capital city market performance with buyer and seller activity at records levels. Weekend auction clearance rates have consistently exceeded 80 percent over February and into March with sales levels unprecedented for this time of the year. Auction listings are considerably higher than over the same period in 2013 indicating high levels of confidence from sellers.

Auction clearance rate

77% Feb 2014

65 %

62%

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Average days on market

Most suburban regions are recording consistently high clearance rates at auction with the inner west, the upper north shore and south mid-price range markets particularly vibrant.

63 Feb 2014

88

77

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Indications are that the relatively quiet prestige market is gathering momentum with rising listing numbers and clearance rates on the lower north shore, northern beaches and city and east regions.

Average discount

Sydney’s strong housing market can be expected to continue at its current level through to mid-year with investor activity remaining a significant component of the market energy.

4.8%

5.8%

6.0 %

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Auction clearance rates, Sydney*

Median prices, Sydney

80%

$800k

Stock on market

22k

Houses

$700k

70%

Feb 2014

$600k 60%

Units

$500k 50%

Change 12 months ago

-24.5 % Change long-term trend

* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions

Inner West QoQ: +5.4% YoY: +22.5% CanBankstown QoQ: +2.9% YoY: +13.8% South West QoQ: +4.3% YoY: +14.0%

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

source: APM

Median price change by region (houses) West QoQ: +5.1% YoY: +15.4%

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

$300k

Jan 07

Feb 14

Feb 13

Aug 13

Feb 12

Aug 12

Feb 11

Aug 11

Feb 10

Aug 10

Feb 09

Aug 09

Feb 08

Aug 08

Feb 07

Aug 07

$400k

Aug 06

40%

-17.2%

Median price change by region (units) Upper North QoQ: +4.0% YoY: +20.1% Northern Beaches QoQ: +4.0% YoY: +13.9% Lower North QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +14.3% City & East QoQ: -0.6% YoY: +14.9% South QoQ: +3.0% YoY: +15.5%

West QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +11.3%

Inner West QoQ: +0.2% YoY: +9.1% CanBankstown QoQ: +1.2% YoY: +11.9% South West QoQ: -1.0% YoY: +6.6%

Upper North QoQ: -1.7% YoY: +4.9% Northern Beaches QoQ: +1.7% YoY: +8.9% Lower North QoQ: +2.8% YoY: +18.0% City & East QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +9.4% South QoQ: -1.0% YoY: +8.4%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014

Sydney | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

3

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Housing market report Melbourne

Quick stats

The Melbourne housing market has started 2014 resolutely as buyer and seller activity continues to track higher than last year.

Auction clearance rate

Low interest rates and restored confidence will keep the Melbourne housing market ticking over despite increasing gloominess over the state of the local economy. Melbourne’s prestige property market has been a key element in the revival of the housing market over the past year – and its input continues to be significant this year. 399 properties were reported sold at auction over February this year with a price of $1 million or above. This compares to just 261 over February last year.

71%

69 %

66 %

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Average days on market

Melbourne’s inner south suburban region has been particularly prominent this year with the leading regional clearance rate over February at 79.7 percent compared to 72.0 recorded over February 2013. The inner east and outer east continue to be popular with buyers with February clearance rates of 78.6 percent and 74.8 percent respectively. Higher auction listing numbers are also a feature of the Melbourne market this year with 4,400 properties scheduled to go under the hammer over March compared to just 3052 over March last year.

104

100

78

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Average discount

6.3%

6.9 %

6.5 %

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Stock on market

Melbourne’s resilient performance so far this year can be expected to continue to mid-year particularly driven by momentum in inner-city prestige markets. The local economy however remains a concern with the latest unemployment rate at 7.3 percent clearly the highest of the mainland capitals and the highest monthly result since 1999.

41k

5.8 %

16.3%

Feb 2014

Change 12 months ago

Change long-term trend

Median prices, Melbourne

Auction clearance rates, Melbourne* 90%

$600k

Houses 80%

$500k

70%

Units

$400k 60%

* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions

West QoQ: +4.7% YoY: +8.4% Inner QoQ: +4.1% YoY: +9.1% Inner South QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +16.8%

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

source: APM

Median price change by region (houses) North QoQ: +3.2% YoY: +11.0%

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

$200k

Jul 06

Feb 14

Feb 13

Aug 13

Feb 12

Aug 12

Feb 11

Aug 11

Feb 10

Aug 10

Feb 09

Aug 09

Feb 08

Aug 08

Feb 07

Aug 07

Aug 06

40%

Jan 07

$300k

50%

Median price change by region (units) North East QoQ: +5.0 YoY: +11.7% Inner East QoQ: -3.6% YoY: +12.5% Outer East QoQ: +3.7% YoY: +18.0% South East QoQ: +3.8% YoY: +9.0%

North QoQ: +0.1% YoY: +6.1% West QoQ: -0.6% YoY: -1.1% Inner QoQ: -1.0% YoY: +3.0% Inner South QoQ: -0.4% YoY: +9.7%

North East QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +9.1% Inner East QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +10.1% Outer East QoQ: +4.7% YoY: +16.1% South East QoQ: +4.6% YoY: +5.4%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014

Melbourne | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

4

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Housing market report Quick stats

Brisbane The Brisbane housing market remains poised for steady growth in home buyer activity through 2014.

Auction clearance rate

Brisbane local government sub-markets have all recorded house price growth over 2013 with the City of Brisbane clearly the top performer at 7.5 percent followed by Ipswich City at 5.6 percent. Logan City and Redland City remain the underperformers in the region recording growth of 1.2 percent and 3.3 percent respectively over 2013.

Feb 2014

46% 109

8

7.3

7.4

Units

$400k

5 3.6

4

3.9

103

Long-term trend

5.7%

7.1%

7.5 %

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Stock on market Houses

6.8

6.3

5.8

109

12 months ago

Average discount

Median prices, Brisbane

7.9

7.5

7 6

Feb 2014

$500k

9

35 %

Long-term trend

Average days on market

Economic activity is slowly improving in Brisbane as the impact of a lower dollar activates Queensland export markets and tourism. Unemployment remains high with a sharp increase over February to 7.4 percent. The jobs market should gradually improve although buyer activity will continue to be driven by high affordability courtesy of the second lowest mainland capital median house price and low interest rates.

Unemployment rate by city, Feb 2014

41%

12 months ago

27k

6.1%

6.0 %

Feb 2014

Change 12 months ago

Change long-term trend

$300k

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

$200k

1

Jul 06

2

Jan 07

3

Nat

Hob

Dar

Can

Per

Ade

Bris

Melb

Syd

0

source: ABS

source: APM

Median price change by region (houses) Caboolture QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +1.4% Pine Rivers QoQ: +3.8% YoY: +3.8% NW Outer QoQ: +2.7% YoY: +3.8% SE Outer QoQ: +1.0% YoY: +6.4% Ipswich QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +3.1%

Median price change by region (units) NW Inner QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +5.1%

Caboolture QoQ: +0.6% YoY: -3.8%

Inner QoQ: +4.3% YoY: +11.7%

Pine Rivers QoQ: -0.9% YoY: -2.0%

SE Inner QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +9.9%

NW Outer QoQ: -1.5% YoY: -1.0%

SE Inner QoQ: -5.7% YoY: +3.9%

SE Outer QoQ: -0.9% YoY: -3.8%

Redland QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +0.8%

Ipswich QoQ: -17.0% YoY: -24.6%

Logan QoQ: -9.5% YoY: -27.3%

Redland QoQ: +3.3% YoY: +3.3% Logan QoQ: -2.5% YoY: +1.2%

NW Inner QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +0.6%

Inner QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +5.6%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014

Brisbane | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

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Housing market report Quick stats

Adelaide

Average days on market

Despite an underperforming economy Adelaide’s housing market will continue to provide solid buyer activity through 2014. Latest ABS jobs data is a concern with a February unemployment rate of 7.5 percent - the highest rate fo 12 years.

117 Feb 2014

Low interest rates are not only activating home buying in Adelaide but also increased dwelling construction. Latest ABS building approval data for January reported 678 dwelling approvals over January 2014 compared to the 411 recorded over January last year - again a solid reflection of increased home buyer demand in Adelaide.

Adelaide unemployment rate

Median prices, Adelaide $500k

6.2%

7.1%

6.7%

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Stock on market

Houses

9%

119

Long-term trend

Average discount

Adelaide also has a healthy first home buyer market that can be expected to continue to flourish through 2014, driven by relatively low entry level prices. Currently 16 percent of buyer activity in South Australia is from first home buyers which is close to the long-term average for the state and second only to Western Australia.

10%

148

12 months ago

11k

-4.2%

2.3%

Feb 2014

Change 12 months ago

Change long-term trend

$400k

8% 7%

Units

$300k

6% 5%

$200k

4%

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Feb 14

Nov 13

Aug 13

May 13

Feb 13

Nov 12

Aug 12

May 12

Feb 12

Nov 11

$100k Aug 11

2%

Jan 07

3%

source: APM

source: ABS

Median price change by region (houses)

Median price change by region (units)

North QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.4%

North QoQ: -1.6% YoY: -1.3%

West QoQ: +3.1% YoY: +4.3%

West QoQ: +3.0% YoY: -3.5%

East QoQ: +5.2% YoY: +6.0%

East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.3%

South QoQ: +4.5% YoY: +3.4%

South QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +1.0%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014

Adelaide | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

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Housing market report Quick stats

Perth The Perth housing market can be expected to continue to record solid buyer activity through 2014 with the market characterised by an even performance from buyer types and price ranges. Western Australia has the highest market share of first home buyers of all the states with the numbers of this buyer group consistently at long-term averages and expected to remain so. Perth’s east and south east and south west suburban regions have been the best performers over the past 12 months recording house price annual growth of 12 and 11.5 percent respectively over 2013.

Average days on market

90

83

97

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Average discount

Challenges have emerged for the local economy as a surge in interstate jobseekers has placed pressure on a Western Australian employment market adjusting to the end of the construction phase of the resources boom.

5.3%

5.3%

6.9 %

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Stock on market

Median weekly asking rent, houses December 2013

Median prices, Perth

$550

$700k

$500

Perth

$450

National

23k

6.4%

5.2%

Feb 2014

Change 12 months ago

Change long-term trend

Houses

$600k $500k

Units

$400k $400

source: APM

North QoQ: +4.1% YoY: +11.3%

South West QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +11.5%

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

source: APM

Median price change by region (houses)

Central QoQ: +5.3% YoY: +5.9%

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

$200k

Dec 13

Jun 13

Sep 13

Mar 13

Dec 12

Jun 12

Sep 12

Mar 12

Dec 11

Jun 11

Sep 11

Mar 11

Dec 10

Jun 10

Sep 10

Mar 10

Dec 09

$350

Sep 09

$300k

East QoQ: 3.1% YoY: +9.8%

South East QoQ: +3.0% YoY: +12.0%

Median price change by region (units) North QoQ: +6.3% YoY: +12.0% Central QoQ: +8.8% YoY: +7.5%

South West QoQ: +7.3% YoY: +17.8%

East QoQ: +8.8% YoY: +6.5%

South East QoQ: -2.6% YoY: +2.3%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014.

Perth | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

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Housing market report Quick stats

Canberra

Average days on market

Latest auction clearance rates signal the Canberra housing market remains relatively subdued, although there are some early signs of a revival. Low interest rates will be a catalyst for a sustained lift in buyer activity although a strengthening local economy is also a key factor – early signs of which are also emerging. The Canberra unemployment rate for February was 3.6 percent, which was down sharply from the 5.1 percent recorded over February 2013.

Auction clearance rates however remain well below the recent previous peak for February of 73 percent recorded in 2010. Median prices, Canberra

6.0% 5.5%

Houses $500k

4.5%

Units

4.0% 3.5%

73

12 months ago

Long-term trend

3.7%

5.0 %

4.8 %

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Stock on market

$600k

5.0%

97

Feb 2014

Average discount

Canberra recorded an auction clearance rate of 55.7 percent over February which is similar to the 54.2 percent result reported over February last year.

Canberra unemployment rate

78

$400k

2.1k

18.9 %

44.7%

Feb 2014

Change 12 months ago

Change long-term trend

3.0% 2.5%

$300k

2.0%

source: ABS

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

source: APM

Median price change by region (houses) Belconnen QoQ: -1.2% YoY: +1.1%

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

$200k

Jan 07

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

1.0%

Jan 09

1.5%

Median price change by region (units) Gungahlin QoQ: -1.9% YoY: +1.9%

Belconnen QoQ: -2.5% YoY: -1.3%

North QoQ: -2.3% YoY: -5.3%

North QoQ: -2.8% YoY: +2.3% Woden Valley QoQ: +2.7% YoY: -3.3%

Tuggeranong QoQ: +3.1% YoY: +4.7%

South QoQ: -6.6% YoY: +7.4%

Gungahlin QoQ: -8.1% YoY: +7.0%

Woden Valley QoQ: -8.2% YoY: -2.5%

South QoQ: +5.1% YoY: -11.3%

Tuggeranong QoQ: +6.1% YoY: +4.9%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014

Canberra | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

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Housing market report Quick stats

Gold Coast The Gold Coast housing market can be expected to continue the encouraging prices growth and buyer activity that emerged through 2013 in line with other south-east Queensland housing markets.

Average days on market

136

176

142

The central and south Gold Coast suburban regions have clearly been the best performers of the all the regions over the past year with prices growth over 2013 of 5 percent and 12.5 percent respectively.

Feb 2014

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Average discount

The local economy also continues to provide positive signs of revival with an unemployment rate over January of 4.6 percent – the second consecutive month at this low rate and well below the 5.7 percent recorded the year before. Average days on market, Gold Coast

Median prices, Gold Coast

200

$600k

9.7%

12 months ago

Long-term trend

Houses

$500k

140 $400k

Units

120 100

9.7%

Feb 2014

Stock on market

180 160

7.2%

$300k

10k

-0.2%

-12.4%

Feb 2014

Change 12 months ago

Change long-term trend

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

$200k

Jan 07

Feb 14

Feb 13

Aug 13

Feb 12

Aug 12

Feb 11

Aug 11

Feb 10

Aug 10

Feb 09

Aug 09

Feb 08

Aug 08

Feb 07

Aug 07

60

Aug 06

80

source: APM

Median price change by region (houses)

Gold Coast West QoQ: +1.2% YoY: +5.1%

Median price change by region (units)

Gold Coast West QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +1.4%

Gold Coast East QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +2.2%

Gold Coast East QoQ: -1.5% YoY: 0.0%

QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of December 2013.

Gold Coast | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors Copyright Australian Property Monitors. Any reproduction of or reference to any part of this report must attribute Australian Property Monitors as the source.

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Housing market report Hobart

Darwin

The Hobart housing market can be expected to build on the recovery in prices growth reported through 2013. Changes to the local first home buyers grant - now increased temporarily to $30,000, and the highest of all the states - will facilitate a surge from first home buyers and in home building. There are indicators that this surge is already emerging.

Home buying activity in Darwin has continued solidly in 2014 driven by high levels of immigration activated by a strong local economy and the lowest unemployment of all the capitals at just 2.5 percent and falling.

The local economy remains under pressure with a February unemployment rate of 7.9 percent – the highest of all the capitals.

Rising investor activity has been a characteristic of the Darwin housing market over the past year and this can be expected to continue through 2014 despite rising vacancy rates - particularly for units.

Disclaimers APM Disclaimer Published and compiled by Australian Property Monitors ACN 061438006. Level 2, 1 Darling Island Road Pyrmont NSW 2009. In compiling this publication, the Publisher relies upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that while the Publisher believes all the information in it will be correct at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to the Publisher for the supply of such information. New South Wales Land and Property Information Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information. Australian Property Monitors Pty Ltd is authorised as a Sales Information Provider by the Land and Property Information. State of Victoria To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. State of Queensland Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) [2013]. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws. Government of the State of South Australia

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Hobart and Darwin | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

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