I N D O N E S I A
โอกาสการค้าการลงทุน ในอินโดนีเซีย ผู้ช่วยศาสตราจารย์ ดร.อัทธ์ พิศาลวานิช คณบดีคณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ ผู้อานวยการศูนย์ศึกษาการค้าระหว่างประเทศ มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย
Company
LOGO
เอเซียและอาเซียนมีประชากรมากสุด
Company
LOGO
reaching this position is not automatic. It depends on the success of policies and investments to support sustained growth over other countries, including Indonesia, through trade, finance and technology channels. Other emerging markets will also this period. If this is achieved then by 2025, Indonesia could be one of six major emerging economies that will account for half the velop major growth poles, reflecting theirand relatively growth. Between 2011 and share 2025 ofemerging economies are world’s as output, including Brazil, China, India, Korea Russia. strong Under this scenario in 2025, Indonesia’s global growth is ojected totoexpand by an of 4.7 17), percent a of year, while by only 2.3 percentgrow a year. projected be around 2.8 average percent (Figure ahead Brazil and developed Russia. Thiseconomies could see Indonesia’s economy to USD 4.1 trillion in nominal terms by 2025 (Figure 18) and its GDP per capita double in real terms from today.
ปี ๒๐๒๕ อินโดนีเซียเป็น ๑ ใน ๑๐ เศรษฐกิจใหญ่ของโลก
e results of the analysis highlight the potential for Indonesia to join the ranks of the main global growth poles, although Figurethis 17: position Indonesia join the ranks of globalon growth Figure of 18:policies and has potential totobecome of the growth over aching is could not automatic. It depends the success andthe investments supportone sustained drivers by 2025 larger emerging economies s period. If this is achieved then by 2025, Indonesia could be one of six major emerging economies that will account for half the (share of global growth contribution, 2021–25) (nominal paths, 2009–25) rld’s output, including Brazil, China, India, Korea and Russia. Under GDP this scenario in 2025, Indonesia’s share of global growth is USD trillion USD trillion ojected toPercent be around 2.8 percent (Figure Percent 17), ahead of 40 Brazil and Russia. This could see Indonesia’s economy grow to USD 4.1 40 5 5 ion in nominal terms by 2025 (Figure 18) and its GDP per capita double in real terms from today.
igure Figure 18: and has the potential to become 4one of the 30 17: Indonesia could join the ranks of global growth 30 4 rivers by 2025 larger emerging economies Korea
share 20 of global growth contribution, 2021–25) 40
Percent
Percent
10
(nominal GDP paths, 2009–25)
20 10
3
40 2
2.8
30 0
0
5
30 1
20
20 0
10
Source: World Bank (2011), Global 2.8 Development Horizons
10
USD trillion
Mexico
Turkey
2
Korea
1
4 Indonesia
5 4
Malaysia
3
3
0
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2 Source: World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
Note: This box draws on World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
0
3
USD trillion
Mexico
Turkey
2
0
HE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
ource: World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
1
Indonesia
June 2011
Malaysia
17
0 2009
1 0
2013
2017
2021
2025
Source: World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
ote: This box draws on World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
ประเทศอินโดนีเซีย
ประกอบด้วยใหญ่ ๖ เกาะ คือ Sumatra, Java, Bali-Nusa, Kalimantan, Sulawesi และ Papua และเกาะเล็กทัง้ หมดประมาณ ๑๗,๐๐๐ เกาะ มีจังหวัดทั้งหมด ๓๓ จังหวัด
Bandung Surabaya
GDP in current prices (Billion US dollars) 2000 South-East Asia
2005
2009
600
904
1,473
Brunei Darussalam
6
10
11
Cambodia
4
6
11
Indonesia
165
286
540
Lao PDR
2
3
6
Malaysia
94
138
191
Myanmar
7
12
19
Philippines
76
99
161
Singapore
93
121
177
123
176
264
0
0
1
31
53
93
Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam
เปอร์เซ็นต์ประชากรปี
2010
Source: National Statistic Agency (NSA), 2010
ความหนาแน่นของประชากร
Source: NSA
ศักยภาพทางเศรษฐกิจเกาะสุมาตรา Development Theme:
Consists of 11 Economic Centers:
Main Economic Activity:
Center for Production and Processing of Natural Resources As The Nation’s Energy Reserves • Banda Aceh • Pangkal Pinang • Medan • Padang • Pekanbaru • Bandar Lampung • Jambi • Bengkulu • Palembang • Serang • Tanjungpinang
• Palm Oil • Rubber • Coal • Shipping • Steel
• Sunda Straits National Strategic Area
พื้นที่ศักยภาพการลงทุนในเกาะสุมาตรา ๑๔ ท่าเรือเล็กและ ๔ สนามบิน Banda Aceh Medan
Riau
Jumbi
Palembang
Bandar Lumpung
Palm oil
การผลิตปาล์มน้ามัน
Source: FAOSTAT; Team Analysis
พื้นที่ที่มีศักยภาพในการลงทุนปลูกปาล์ม
Source: Indonesia Palm Oil Statistic, 2009
Palm Oil Plantation Area
Source: National Statistic Agency (NSA), Team Analysis
Rubber
Share of Rubber Production in Indonesia
Source: A Literature Review, Team Analysis, Statistics Indonesia 2010
Production of Rubber Industry Based On the Ownership of Rubber Plantations in Indonesia
Source: Tree Crop Estate Statistics of Directorate General of Estate; Team Analysis 2009
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจเกาะชวา Development Theme:
Driver for National Industry and Services Provision
Consists of 5 Economic Centers:
• Jakarta • Bandung • Semarang
Main Economic Activity:
• Yogyakarta • Surabaya
• Food & • Shipping Beverage • ICT • Textile • Defense Equipment • Transportation • Greater Jakarta Area Equipment
Food and Beverage
อัตราการขยายตัวอาหารและเครื่องดื่ม
Source: Euromonitor; Team Analysis
พื้นที่ที่มศ ี ักยภาพการผลิตข้าวอินโดนีเซีย
Source: USDA, National Statistic Agency (NSA), Processed
เปรียบเทียบการผลิตข้าว
Source: National Statistic Agency (NSA), Team Analysis
Transportation Equipment
Kalimantan Economic Corridor Development Theme:
Consists of 4 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Center for Production and Processing of National Miningand Energy Reserves • Pontianak • Palangkaraya • Banjarmasin • Samarinda • Oil and Gas • Coal • Palm Oil
• Steel • Bauxite • Timber
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจของสุราเวสี Development Theme:
Consists of 6 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Center of Production and Processing of National Agricultural, Plantation, Fishery, Oil & Gas, and Mining • Makassar • Kendari • Mamuju
• Palu • Gorontalo • Manado
• Agricultural (Rice, Corn, Soybean, and Cassava)
• Cocoa • Fishery • Nickel • Oil and Gas
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจ บาลี นูซา เทงการา Development Theme:
Consists of 4 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Gateway for Tourism and National Food Support • Denpasar • Lombok • Kupang • Mataram • Tourism • Fishery • Animal Husbandry
พื้นที่ลงทุนในเกาะบาลี นูซา เทงการา
Nagekeo
Denpasar Lombok
Kupang
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจปาปัว เคปัลลาอัน มากูรา (Papua – Kepulauan Maluku)
Development Theme: Consists of 7 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Center for Development of Food, Fisheries, Energy, and National Mining • Sofifi • Timika • Ambon • Jayapura • Sorong • Merauke • Manokwari • Food Agriculture - MIFEE • Copper • Nickel • Oil and Gas • Fishery
เปรียบเทียบเศรษฐกิจ
Source: Province and Regency in Figure, NSA
GRDP per Capita between Regions in Papua Province
Source: Province and Regency in Figure, NSA
Fishery
Production of Fisheries in Indonesia Region
Source: Indonesia Fisheries Year Book 2009
Production of Fisheries in Indonesia Region
Source: Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM); NSA; Team Analysis
Productivity of Aquaculture in Sulawesi
Source: Indonesia Fisheries Year Book 2009
National Fisheries Production Target 2011-2015
Source: Indonesia Fisheries Year Book 2009
Tourism
Tourism in Bali - Nusa Tenggara
Source: BPS
Performance of Tourism Indonesia 2010
Source: UNWTO and NESPARNAS
Company
LOGO
เอเซียและอาเซียนมีประชากรมากสุด
Company
LOGO
reaching this position is not automatic. It depends on the success of policies and investments to support sustained growth over other countries, including Indonesia, through trade, finance and technology channels. Other emerging markets will also this period. If this is achieved then by 2025, Indonesia could be one of six major emerging economies that will account for half the velop major growth poles, reflecting theirand relatively growth. Between 2011 and share 2025 ofemerging economies are world’s as output, including Brazil, China, India, Korea Russia. strong Under this scenario in 2025, Indonesia’s global growth is ojected totoexpand by an of 4.7 17), percent a of year, while by only 2.3 percentgrow a year. projected be around 2.8 average percent (Figure ahead Brazil and developed Russia. Thiseconomies could see Indonesia’s economy to USD 4.1 trillion in nominal terms by 2025 (Figure 18) and its GDP per capita double in real terms from today.
ปี ๒๐๒๕ อินโดนีเซียเป็น ๑ ใน ๑๐ เศรษฐกิจใหญ่ของโลก
e results of the analysis highlight the potential for Indonesia to join the ranks of the main global growth poles, although Figurethis 17: position Indonesia join the ranks of globalon growth Figure of 18:policies and has potential totobecome of the growth over aching is could not automatic. It depends the success andthe investments supportone sustained drivers by 2025 larger emerging economies s period. If this is achieved then by 2025, Indonesia could be one of six major emerging economies that will account for half the (share of global growth contribution, 2021–25) (nominal paths, 2009–25) rld’s output, including Brazil, China, India, Korea and Russia. Under GDP this scenario in 2025, Indonesia’s share of global growth is USD trillion USD trillion ojected toPercent be around 2.8 percent (Figure Percent 17), ahead of 40 Brazil and Russia. This could see Indonesia’s economy grow to USD 4.1 40 5 5 ion in nominal terms by 2025 (Figure 18) and its GDP per capita double in real terms from today.
igure Figure 18: and has the potential to become 4one of the 30 17: Indonesia could join the ranks of global growth 30 4 rivers by 2025 larger emerging economies Korea
share 20 of global growth contribution, 2021–25) 40
Percent
Percent
10
(nominal GDP paths, 2009–25)
20 10
3
40 2
2.8
30 0
0
5
30 1
20
20 0
10
Source: World Bank (2011), Global 2.8 Development Horizons
10
USD trillion
Mexico
Turkey
2
Korea
1
4 Indonesia
5 4
Malaysia
3
3
0
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2 Source: World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
Note: This box draws on World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
0
3
USD trillion
Mexico
Turkey
2
0
HE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
ource: World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
1
Indonesia
June 2011
Malaysia
17
0 2009
1 0
2013
2017
2021
2025
Source: World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
ote: This box draws on World Bank (2011), Global Development Horizons
ประเทศอินโดนีเซีย
ประกอบด้วยใหญ่ ๖ เกาะ คือ Sumatra, Java, Bali-Nusa, Kalimantan, Sulawesi และ Papua และเกาะเล็กทัง้ หมดประมาณ ๑๗,๐๐๐ เกาะ มีจังหวัดทั้งหมด ๓๓ จังหวัด
Bandung Surabaya
GDP in current prices (Billion US dollars) 2000 South-East Asia
2005
2009
600
904
1,473
Brunei Darussalam
6
10
11
Cambodia
4
6
11
Indonesia
165
286
540
Lao PDR
2
3
6
Malaysia
94
138
191
Myanmar
7
12
19
Philippines
76
99
161
Singapore
93
121
177
123
176
264
0
0
1
31
53
93
Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam
เปอร์เซ็นต์ประชากรปี
2010
Source: National Statistic Agency (NSA), 2010
ความหนาแน่นของประชากร
Source: NSA
ศักยภาพทางเศรษฐกิจเกาะสุมาตรา Development Theme:
Consists of 11 Economic Centers:
Main Economic Activity:
Center for Production and Processing of Natural Resources As The Nation’s Energy Reserves • Banda Aceh • Pangkal Pinang • Medan • Padang • Pekanbaru • Bandar Lampung • Jambi • Bengkulu • Palembang • Serang • Tanjungpinang
• Palm Oil • Rubber • Coal • Shipping • Steel
• Sunda Straits National Strategic Area
พื้นที่ศักยภาพการลงทุนในเกาะสุมาตรา ๑๔ ท่าเรือเล็กและ ๔ สนามบิน Banda Aceh Medan
Riau
Jumbi
Palembang
Bandar Lumpung
Palm oil
การผลิตปาล์มน้ามัน
Source: FAOSTAT; Team Analysis
พื้นที่ที่มีศักยภาพในการลงทุนปลูกปาล์ม
Source: Indonesia Palm Oil Statistic, 2009
Palm Oil Plantation Area
Source: National Statistic Agency (NSA), Team Analysis
Rubber
Share of Rubber Production in Indonesia
Source: A Literature Review, Team Analysis, Statistics Indonesia 2010
Production of Rubber Industry Based On the Ownership of Rubber Plantations in Indonesia
Source: Tree Crop Estate Statistics of Directorate General of Estate; Team Analysis 2009
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจเกาะชวา Development Theme:
Driver for National Industry and Services Provision
Consists of 5 Economic Centers:
• Jakarta • Bandung • Semarang
Main Economic Activity:
• Yogyakarta • Surabaya
• Food & • Shipping Beverage • ICT • Textile • Defense Equipment • Transportation • Greater Jakarta Area Equipment
Food and Beverage
อัตราการขยายตัวอาหารและเครื่องดื่ม
Source: Euromonitor; Team Analysis
พื้นที่ที่มศ ี ักยภาพการผลิตข้าวอินโดนีเซีย
Source: USDA, National Statistic Agency (NSA), Processed
เปรียบเทียบการผลิตข้าว
Source: National Statistic Agency (NSA), Team Analysis
Transportation Equipment
Kalimantan Economic Corridor Development Theme:
Consists of 4 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Center for Production and Processing of National Miningand Energy Reserves • Pontianak • Palangkaraya • Banjarmasin • Samarinda • Oil and Gas • Coal • Palm Oil
• Steel • Bauxite • Timber
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจของสุราเวสี Development Theme:
Consists of 6 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Center of Production and Processing of National Agricultural, Plantation, Fishery, Oil & Gas, and Mining • Makassar • Kendari • Mamuju
• Palu • Gorontalo • Manado
• Agricultural (Rice, Corn, Soybean, and Cassava)
• Cocoa • Fishery • Nickel • Oil and Gas
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจ บาลี นูซา เทงการา Development Theme:
Consists of 4 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Gateway for Tourism and National Food Support • Denpasar • Lombok • Kupang • Mataram • Tourism • Fishery • Animal Husbandry
พื้นที่ลงทุนในเกาะบาลี นูซา เทงการา
Nagekeo
Denpasar Lombok
Kupang
ระเบียงเศรษฐกิจปาปัว เคปัลลาอัน มากูรา (Papua – Kepulauan Maluku)
Development Theme: Consists of 7 Economic Centers :
Main Economic Activity:
Center for Development of Food, Fisheries, Energy, and National Mining • Sofifi • Timika • Ambon • Jayapura • Sorong • Merauke • Manokwari • Food Agriculture - MIFEE • Copper • Nickel • Oil and Gas • Fishery
เปรียบเทียบเศรษฐกิจ
Source: Province and Regency in Figure, NSA
GRDP per Capita between Regions in Papua Province
Source: Province and Regency in Figure, NSA
Fishery
Production of Fisheries in Indonesia Region
Source: Indonesia Fisheries Year Book 2009
Production of Fisheries in Indonesia Region
Source: Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM); NSA; Team Analysis
Productivity of Aquaculture in Sulawesi
Source: Indonesia Fisheries Year Book 2009
National Fisheries Production Target 2011-2015
Source: Indonesia Fisheries Year Book 2009
Tourism
Tourism in Bali - Nusa Tenggara
Source: BPS
Performance of Tourism Indonesia 2010
Source: UNWTO and NESPARNAS
