indonesian coal mining outlook - International Energy Agency
INDONESIAN COAL MINING OUTLOOK
Presented at the IEA workshop “ COAL MARKET’S OUTLOOK ”, 14 April 2011 ORIENTAL BAY INTERNATIONAL HOTEL, BEIJING, P.R. CHINA
BY : BOB KAMANDANU CHAIRMAN OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION (ICMA)
1
INDONESIAN COAL MAP RESOURCES AND RESERVES
51.92 b.t 52.53 b.t
SUMATRA
9.90 b.t 0.23 b.t
11.23 b.t
0.002 b.t
0.15 b.t
0.01 b.t Resources : 104,842 b. t Lignite : 20 % Subituminous : 66 % Bituminous : 14 %
b.t : billion tons
Reserves : 21,13 b. t Lignite Subituminous Bituminous
: 29 % : 60 % : 11 %
Source: Geological Agency, 2010,Agency,2009 and other sources Source: Badan Geology/Geological 2
1
DISTRIBUTION OF INDONESIAN COAL RESOURCES REPORTED IN 2007
SULAWESI
8%
KALIMANTAN
SUMATRA
1%
MALUKU PAPUA
32% 10%
48%
BALI
JAVA
Distribution of Coal Resources Potential
Source : Indonesian Coal Book,2008/2009, ICMA, July 2008
3
INDONESIAN COAL RESOURCE STATUS - 2009 By Calorific Value ( adb ) 69,550.65 M ton ( 66.39 % )
Low < 5100
70,000.00
Medium ( 5100 - 6100 )
60,000.00
High ( 6100 - 7100 )
50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00
Very high > 7100
21,183.05 M ton ( 20.22 % )
13,021.50 M ton ( 12.43 % )
20,000.00
1,001.64 M ton ( 0.96 % )
10,000.00 0.00 Low < 5100
Medium ( 5100 - 6100 )
High ( 6100 - 7100 )
Very high > 7100
Source : Indonesian Geological Agency
2
PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES AND FUTURE FORECASTS
5
INDONESIA’S THERMAL COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES
• Coal production increased by 14.8 %,from 283 million tons in 2009 to be around 325 million tons by 2010, and in 2011 is predicted to be around 335 to 350 million tons.
• Export increased by 15.22 %, i.e. from 230 million tons to be around 265 million tons by 2010; and in 2011 is predicted to be around 270 to 285 million tons. • Domestic sales increased about 13.21 %, i.e. from 53 million ton to be around 60 million tons by 2010. In 2011 the domestic sales is predicted to be around 63 to 69 million tons. • China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the main countries of destination of Indonesian coal export. Almost 72 % of the coal production are exported, while the rest are sold domestically; 6
3
INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES (1996-2010) 350 Production Growth : 14,8 % per year Export Growth : 15,12 % per year Domestic Sales Growth : 13.8%per year
300
283
LRC Production in 2009 was about 5,8 % of the total production, and increased to about 8,7 % by 2010 %.
250 Milion tons
325
265 240 221.1
200
191
190.48 152.86
150 121.04 102.6
100
50
46.2 35.5
10.9
0
54.1 40.9 13.2
62.1 46.7 15.4
72.9 53.9 19
79.3
57.2 22.1
90.7 63.4 27.3
85.3
158.6 144.94
130.86 110.79 93.76
73.4
29.2
62.5 35.74
230
37.1
41.3
45.54
49
53
60
Production Export Domestic
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT BY MAIN DESTINATION COUNTRIES
45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00
Thousand tons
Japan 30,000.00
India 25,000.00
Korea, Republic of Taiwan
20,000.00
China 15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
4
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT BY DESTINATION COUNTRIES (Million Tons) Country of Destination India China Korea, Republic of Japan Taiwan Malaysia Thailand
Shares (%)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
10,674.1 1,473.1 11,669.3 22,612.1 17,765.5 6,112.8 4,787.2
16,255.4 2,503.2 14,376.6 27,312.8 17,895.8 7,399.8 6,404.5
20,742.4 6,656.5 21,314.1 35,295.7 26,723.8 8,782.6 8,475.1
25,179.1 14,122.3 27,371.5 35,198.5 24,863.1 9,376.5 11,963.2
26,327.5 15,673.7 26,286.8 36,259.8 24,669.4 11,104.3 12,822.8
39,109.0 38,657.6 33,418.3 32,217.7 24,723.4 12,483.3 11,229.5
43,432.4 42,931.1 37,112.3 35,779.3 27,456.5 13,863.3 12,470.9
16.70 16.51 14.27 13.76 10.56 5.33 4.80
Hongkong Philippines Italy Spain
7,367.3 3,603.1 5,198.1 2,775.7
9,408.6 10,985.2 3,906.1 5,818.2 6,285.5 7,637.8 3,317.0 4,444.9
11,235.5 6,023.5 6,193.8 4,308.6
10,497.1 6,338.0 5,592.8 4,387.4
10,714,2 7,517.9 5,796.9 4,808.3
11,898.6 8,349.0 6,437.7 5,339.8
4.58 3.21 2.48 2.05
Netherlands United States Others
1,105.7 1,959.9 8,526.0
2,138.7 5,690.9 2,050.3 3,740.8 9,789.8 17,701.0
1,266.9 4,557.7 14,125.7
3,740.7 3,993.8 13,327.6
3,384.8 2,081.5 7,976.3
3,759.0 2,312.0 8,858.1
1.44 0.90 3.41
105,629.9 129,044.1 184,009.0 195,785.9 201,021.7 234,118.7
260,000.0
TOTAL
100.00
Source : Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia, 2009, BPS Statistics of Indonesia Note : * Estimation
THE DEVELOPMENT OF COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES, AND ESTIMATION UP TO 2025 (based on the existing infrastructure capability) 600 Production
Export
Million tons
500
Domestic
560 Prediction
Realization
414
400 398
325
300
200
100
0
283 221.1 190.48 144.94
45.54 2006
240
230
250
184
191
2007
300* 260
265
158.6
62.5
240
148
49 2008
53 2009
60
2010
Note : *Calculated based on Government target on Primary Energy Mix ( Pres. Decree No.5 /2006 )
2015
2020
2025 10
5
KEYS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING INDUSTRY
FACTS:
• Increasing pressure on conservation of Indonesian coal • Numbers of Mining Permits (IUP) issued: 4000 to 5000 permits; companies in operation: 300 to 400 companies • Increasing number of small mining companies without Good Mining Practices, Proper CSR Practices, and Good Corporate Governance, hence industry image’s deteriorates. • Low infrastructure capacity • New regulations tend to limit agressive expansion of coal mining activities, and campaigning more local/domestic consumption. • There is more Low Rank Coal available than High Quality Coal • Indonesia is rich of other mineral as well (Nickel, Iron Ore, Manganese, Bauxite, Aluminium, Copper, Gold, etc,)
11
KEYS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING INDUSTRY ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES: •
• • • •
•
Development must be expanded to be beyond conventional produce and sell of thermal coal. Investing in infrastructure (railways, hauling roads, etc.) Continuing exploration Investing in coal minings with sizeable operations by consolidating small IUPs (permits) to become at least 5,000 ha. Investing in Coal Upgrading (UBC, Lignite to semi-soft coking coal, CWM, etc.), Coal Conversion (CTL, Coal Gasification, etc.) technologies as well as CBF (Coal Blending Facilities) Relocating mineral precessing industries such as Nickel, Manganese, iron ore smelterings, or even further to steel making closer to source of energy (coal and natural gas) by way of mine-mouth power plants (cheaper energy).
12
6
Thank You E-mail: [email protected] Menara Kuningan Building, 1 st Floor Suite A Jl. H. R. Rasuna Said Blok X-7 Kav.5 Jakarta 12940 - INDONESIA Phone/Fax : 021-30015935, 30015936, 30015674 Website : www.apbi-icma.com 13
7
Presented at the IEA workshop “ COAL MARKET’S OUTLOOK ”, 14 April 2011 ORIENTAL BAY INTERNATIONAL HOTEL, BEIJING, P.R. CHINA
BY : BOB KAMANDANU CHAIRMAN OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION (ICMA)
1
INDONESIAN COAL MAP RESOURCES AND RESERVES
51.92 b.t 52.53 b.t
SUMATRA
9.90 b.t 0.23 b.t
11.23 b.t
0.002 b.t
0.15 b.t
0.01 b.t Resources : 104,842 b. t Lignite : 20 % Subituminous : 66 % Bituminous : 14 %
b.t : billion tons
Reserves : 21,13 b. t Lignite Subituminous Bituminous
: 29 % : 60 % : 11 %
Source: Geological Agency, 2010,Agency,2009 and other sources Source: Badan Geology/Geological 2
1
DISTRIBUTION OF INDONESIAN COAL RESOURCES REPORTED IN 2007
SULAWESI
8%
KALIMANTAN
SUMATRA
1%
MALUKU PAPUA
32% 10%
48%
BALI
JAVA
Distribution of Coal Resources Potential
Source : Indonesian Coal Book,2008/2009, ICMA, July 2008
3
INDONESIAN COAL RESOURCE STATUS - 2009 By Calorific Value ( adb ) 69,550.65 M ton ( 66.39 % )
Low < 5100
70,000.00
Medium ( 5100 - 6100 )
60,000.00
High ( 6100 - 7100 )
50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00
Very high > 7100
21,183.05 M ton ( 20.22 % )
13,021.50 M ton ( 12.43 % )
20,000.00
1,001.64 M ton ( 0.96 % )
10,000.00 0.00 Low < 5100
Medium ( 5100 - 6100 )
High ( 6100 - 7100 )
Very high > 7100
Source : Indonesian Geological Agency
2
PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES AND FUTURE FORECASTS
5
INDONESIA’S THERMAL COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES
• Coal production increased by 14.8 %,from 283 million tons in 2009 to be around 325 million tons by 2010, and in 2011 is predicted to be around 335 to 350 million tons.
• Export increased by 15.22 %, i.e. from 230 million tons to be around 265 million tons by 2010; and in 2011 is predicted to be around 270 to 285 million tons. • Domestic sales increased about 13.21 %, i.e. from 53 million ton to be around 60 million tons by 2010. In 2011 the domestic sales is predicted to be around 63 to 69 million tons. • China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the main countries of destination of Indonesian coal export. Almost 72 % of the coal production are exported, while the rest are sold domestically; 6
3
INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES (1996-2010) 350 Production Growth : 14,8 % per year Export Growth : 15,12 % per year Domestic Sales Growth : 13.8%per year
300
283
LRC Production in 2009 was about 5,8 % of the total production, and increased to about 8,7 % by 2010 %.
250 Milion tons
325
265 240 221.1
200
191
190.48 152.86
150 121.04 102.6
100
50
46.2 35.5
10.9
0
54.1 40.9 13.2
62.1 46.7 15.4
72.9 53.9 19
79.3
57.2 22.1
90.7 63.4 27.3
85.3
158.6 144.94
130.86 110.79 93.76
73.4
29.2
62.5 35.74
230
37.1
41.3
45.54
49
53
60
Production Export Domestic
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT BY MAIN DESTINATION COUNTRIES
45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00
Thousand tons
Japan 30,000.00
India 25,000.00
Korea, Republic of Taiwan
20,000.00
China 15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
4
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT BY DESTINATION COUNTRIES (Million Tons) Country of Destination India China Korea, Republic of Japan Taiwan Malaysia Thailand
Shares (%)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
10,674.1 1,473.1 11,669.3 22,612.1 17,765.5 6,112.8 4,787.2
16,255.4 2,503.2 14,376.6 27,312.8 17,895.8 7,399.8 6,404.5
20,742.4 6,656.5 21,314.1 35,295.7 26,723.8 8,782.6 8,475.1
25,179.1 14,122.3 27,371.5 35,198.5 24,863.1 9,376.5 11,963.2
26,327.5 15,673.7 26,286.8 36,259.8 24,669.4 11,104.3 12,822.8
39,109.0 38,657.6 33,418.3 32,217.7 24,723.4 12,483.3 11,229.5
43,432.4 42,931.1 37,112.3 35,779.3 27,456.5 13,863.3 12,470.9
16.70 16.51 14.27 13.76 10.56 5.33 4.80
Hongkong Philippines Italy Spain
7,367.3 3,603.1 5,198.1 2,775.7
9,408.6 10,985.2 3,906.1 5,818.2 6,285.5 7,637.8 3,317.0 4,444.9
11,235.5 6,023.5 6,193.8 4,308.6
10,497.1 6,338.0 5,592.8 4,387.4
10,714,2 7,517.9 5,796.9 4,808.3
11,898.6 8,349.0 6,437.7 5,339.8
4.58 3.21 2.48 2.05
Netherlands United States Others
1,105.7 1,959.9 8,526.0
2,138.7 5,690.9 2,050.3 3,740.8 9,789.8 17,701.0
1,266.9 4,557.7 14,125.7
3,740.7 3,993.8 13,327.6
3,384.8 2,081.5 7,976.3
3,759.0 2,312.0 8,858.1
1.44 0.90 3.41
105,629.9 129,044.1 184,009.0 195,785.9 201,021.7 234,118.7
260,000.0
TOTAL
100.00
Source : Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia, 2009, BPS Statistics of Indonesia Note : * Estimation
THE DEVELOPMENT OF COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES, AND ESTIMATION UP TO 2025 (based on the existing infrastructure capability) 600 Production
Export
Million tons
500
Domestic
560 Prediction
Realization
414
400 398
325
300
200
100
0
283 221.1 190.48 144.94
45.54 2006
240
230
250
184
191
2007
300* 260
265
158.6
62.5
240
148
49 2008
53 2009
60
2010
Note : *Calculated based on Government target on Primary Energy Mix ( Pres. Decree No.5 /2006 )
2015
2020
2025 10
5
KEYS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING INDUSTRY
FACTS:
• Increasing pressure on conservation of Indonesian coal • Numbers of Mining Permits (IUP) issued: 4000 to 5000 permits; companies in operation: 300 to 400 companies • Increasing number of small mining companies without Good Mining Practices, Proper CSR Practices, and Good Corporate Governance, hence industry image’s deteriorates. • Low infrastructure capacity • New regulations tend to limit agressive expansion of coal mining activities, and campaigning more local/domestic consumption. • There is more Low Rank Coal available than High Quality Coal • Indonesia is rich of other mineral as well (Nickel, Iron Ore, Manganese, Bauxite, Aluminium, Copper, Gold, etc,)
11
KEYS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING INDUSTRY ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES: •
• • • •
•
Development must be expanded to be beyond conventional produce and sell of thermal coal. Investing in infrastructure (railways, hauling roads, etc.) Continuing exploration Investing in coal minings with sizeable operations by consolidating small IUPs (permits) to become at least 5,000 ha. Investing in Coal Upgrading (UBC, Lignite to semi-soft coking coal, CWM, etc.), Coal Conversion (CTL, Coal Gasification, etc.) technologies as well as CBF (Coal Blending Facilities) Relocating mineral precessing industries such as Nickel, Manganese, iron ore smelterings, or even further to steel making closer to source of energy (coal and natural gas) by way of mine-mouth power plants (cheaper energy).
12
6
Thank You E-mail: [email protected] Menara Kuningan Building, 1 st Floor Suite A Jl. H. R. Rasuna Said Blok X-7 Kav.5 Jakarta 12940 - INDONESIA Phone/Fax : 021-30015935, 30015936, 30015674 Website : www.apbi-icma.com 13
7
