Industrial employment falls for the fifteenth ...
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial employment falls for the fifteenth month in a row Data from the April issue of the Industrial Indicators survey show a continued downturn in the Brazilian manufacturing industry, as it experienced the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline in industrial jobs. Between April and March, the indicators of sales, employment and capacity utilization edged down by 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, in the seasonally adjusted series. On the other hand, the following indicators posted growth on the same comparison basis: real average earnings of
workers (1.1%), real total payroll (0.4%) and hours worked in production (0.3%). As for total payroll, the indicator is up for the first time in nine months. One can see the severity of the recession by comparing current data with last year’s data. All indicators are down in the first four months of 2016 from the corresponding period in 2015: sales (12.3%), hours worked (10.0%), total payroll (10.0%), employment (9.4%) capacity utilization (2.8 percentage points), and real average earnings of workers (0.7%).
Industrial indicators – April 2016 Seasonally adjusted change from January
Indústrias Diversas
Grande
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up to 0.3%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 0.4%
Ç
Média
Indústria de Energia
Ç da Construção
Ç
REAL SALES Down by 0.6%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.3 percentage points
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 1.1%
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.5%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales retake downward trend
140
Real sales shrank by 0.6% in April from March in the seasonally adjusted series, marking the second consecutive monthly decline in the indicator.
130
120
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the indicator of sales is down by 9.9% in April as compared to the same month in 2015.
110
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Fifteenth consecutive monthly decline
130
In seasonally adjusted terms, the employment indicator recorded a 0.5% decline in April as compared to March.
120
110
Manufacturing jobs are down by 8.7% in April from the same month a year ago.
100
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 120
Hours worked hold steady
110
Hours worked in production posted growth of 0.3% between March and April on a seasonally adjusted basis.
100
However, the indicator of hours worked is down by 8.6% in April from the same month in 2015.
90
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 140
Total payroll edges up after declining for nine months
130
The total payroll indicator rose by 0.4% in April on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis.
120
Nevertheless, real total payroll experienced a 7.3% decline in April as compared to the same month a year ago.
110
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 125
Higher average earnings in April
120
The indicator of real average earnings of workers grew by 1.1% in April from March in the seasonally adjusted series.
115
Workers’ average earnings in April are 1.6% higher than those observed in the same month the year before.
110
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Idleness hits record high since 2002
85
Capacity utilization stood at 76.9% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, representing a 0.3-percentage point drop as compared to March. Grande
76.9%
80
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
3
In April, capacity utilization is down by 2.8 percentage points from the same month a year ago.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
Resume of results - Industrial Indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
APR 2016 / MAR 2016 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
APR 16 / APR 15
JAN-APR 16/ JAN-APR 15
Real sales1
-0.6
-9.9
-12.3
Worked hours in production
0.3
-8.6
-10.0
Employment
-0.5
-8.7
-9.4
Real total payroll2
0.4
-7.3
-10.0
Real average earnings2
1.1
1.6
-0.7
APR 16
MAR 16
APR 15
Capacity utilization
77.6
77.8
80.4
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
76.9
77.2
79.8
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais - Abril 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Rafael da Silva Vasconcelos, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on May 31, 2016.
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial employment falls for the fifteenth month in a row Data from the April issue of the Industrial Indicators survey show a continued downturn in the Brazilian manufacturing industry, as it experienced the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline in industrial jobs. Between April and March, the indicators of sales, employment and capacity utilization edged down by 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, in the seasonally adjusted series. On the other hand, the following indicators posted growth on the same comparison basis: real average earnings of
workers (1.1%), real total payroll (0.4%) and hours worked in production (0.3%). As for total payroll, the indicator is up for the first time in nine months. One can see the severity of the recession by comparing current data with last year’s data. All indicators are down in the first four months of 2016 from the corresponding period in 2015: sales (12.3%), hours worked (10.0%), total payroll (10.0%), employment (9.4%) capacity utilization (2.8 percentage points), and real average earnings of workers (0.7%).
Industrial indicators – April 2016 Seasonally adjusted change from January
Indústrias Diversas
Grande
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up to 0.3%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 0.4%
Ç
Média
Indústria de Energia
Ç da Construção
Ç
REAL SALES Down by 0.6%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.3 percentage points
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 1.1%
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.5%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales retake downward trend
140
Real sales shrank by 0.6% in April from March in the seasonally adjusted series, marking the second consecutive monthly decline in the indicator.
130
120
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the indicator of sales is down by 9.9% in April as compared to the same month in 2015.
110
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Fifteenth consecutive monthly decline
130
In seasonally adjusted terms, the employment indicator recorded a 0.5% decline in April as compared to March.
120
110
Manufacturing jobs are down by 8.7% in April from the same month a year ago.
100
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 120
Hours worked hold steady
110
Hours worked in production posted growth of 0.3% between March and April on a seasonally adjusted basis.
100
However, the indicator of hours worked is down by 8.6% in April from the same month in 2015.
90
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 140
Total payroll edges up after declining for nine months
130
The total payroll indicator rose by 0.4% in April on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis.
120
Nevertheless, real total payroll experienced a 7.3% decline in April as compared to the same month a year ago.
110
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 125
Higher average earnings in April
120
The indicator of real average earnings of workers grew by 1.1% in April from March in the seasonally adjusted series.
115
Workers’ average earnings in April are 1.6% higher than those observed in the same month the year before.
110
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Idleness hits record high since 2002
85
Capacity utilization stood at 76.9% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, representing a 0.3-percentage point drop as compared to March. Grande
76.9%
80
Apr/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
3
In April, capacity utilization is down by 2.8 percentage points from the same month a year ago.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 4 • April 2016
Resume of results - Industrial Indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
APR 2016 / MAR 2016 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
APR 16 / APR 15
JAN-APR 16/ JAN-APR 15
Real sales1
-0.6
-9.9
-12.3
Worked hours in production
0.3
-8.6
-10.0
Employment
-0.5
-8.7
-9.4
Real total payroll2
0.4
-7.3
-10.0
Real average earnings2
1.1
1.6
-0.7
APR 16
MAR 16
APR 15
Capacity utilization
77.6
77.8
80.4
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
76.9
77.2
79.8
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais - Abril 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Rafael da Silva Vasconcelos, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on May 31, 2016.
