International Energy Outlook 2011
International Energy Outlook 2011
Center for Strategic and International Studies Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator September 19, 2011 | Washington, DC
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case • World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India
• Renewables are the world’s fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8% per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in 2035 • Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in 2035 • Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
2
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued) • Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas use in 2035 is 8 percent higher than in last year’s outlook • Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise 43 percent between 2008 and 2035, reaching 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
3
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 500
2008
Projections 482
400 Non-OECD 300 260
288 OECD
244
200
100
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
4
China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 400 Non-OECD Asia
Projections Other Non-OECD
OECD
300
200
100
0 1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
5
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year 7 6
Energy Intensity
GDP per capita
Population
5
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
-3 -4 U.S.
OECD Europe
Japan
South Korea
China
India
Brazil
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
6
Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy consumption world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 250
2008
Projections Liquids (including biofuels)
29% 27%
200 34% 150
Coal
23% Share of world total
28% Natural gas
100
14%
23%
Renewables (excluding biofuels) 10%
50
7% Nuclear
5% 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
7
Liquid fuels markets
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
8
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases represent a wide range of prices world oil price paths real 2009 dollars per barrel 2009
History
Projections
225 High Oil Price case
200 175 150 125
Reference case
100 75 50
Low Oil Price case
25 0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
9
Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels world liquids production million barrels per day 2008
History
120
Projections
Unconventional
100
12%
5% 80
OPEC conventional
40%
41%
60
40 Non-OPEC conventional
55%
48%
20 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
10
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 18
2008
2035
16 14 12 10
8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Iran
Other Middle East OPEC
Africa
South America
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
11
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14
2008
2035
12 10 8
6 4 2 0 Russia
United States
Brazil
Kazakhstan
OECD Europe
Mexico
Canada
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
12
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels Unconventional production million barrels per day 6
2008
2035
5
4
3
2
1
0 Oil sands/bitumen
Biofuels
Extra-heavy oil
Coal-to-liquids
Gas-to-liquids
Oil Shale
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
13
High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and supply schedules relative to the Reference case worldwide liquids consumption and production in 2035 million barrels per day
80
Reference case
High Price case
Low Price case
60 40 20 0 OECD
Non-OECD Asia Rest of World
Demand
OPEC conventional
Non-OPEC Unconventional conventional
Supply
Source: International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
14
Natural gas markets
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
15
Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History 120 OECD
Projections
Non-OECD 100
100 83 80 66 55 56
60
57
68 62
49 40
37 37
39
20
0 1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
16
The Middle East and non-OECD Asia account for the largest increases in natural gas production world natural gas production increment, 2008-2035 trillion cubic feet
Middle East
15
Non-OECD Asia
12
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
10
Africa
7
United States
6
Central and South America
4
Australia/New Zealand
4
Canada Other OECD
3 -2
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
17
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
18
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the 48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed Technically Recoverable
Continent
(trillion cubic feet) North America Africa Asia
Canada, Mexico
1,069
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Western Sahara, South Africa
1,042
China, India, Pakistan
1,404
Australia Europe
South America
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
396 France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Turkey Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay
624
1,225
19
Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada natural gas production trillion cubic feet 30
20 Unconventional (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) 10
Conventional (all other gas) 0 2008 2035 China
2008 2035 Canada
2008
2035
United States
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
20
Electricity markets
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
21
Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the world’s electricity in 2035 world electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours History
Projections
40
30
Coal
20
Natural gas Nuclear
10
Hydropower Other renewables Liquids
0
1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
22
China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in coal-fired generation coal-fired generation trillion kilowatthours History
8
United States
China
Projections
Non-OECD Asia (excluding China)
Rest of world
6
4
2
0 1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
23
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
24
Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History
25 OECD
Projections
Other Non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
20 15 10 5 0
1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
25
Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2008
Projections
50
40
30 Coal
20 Liquids
10 Natural gas
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
26
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
27
Center for Strategic and International Studies Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator September 19, 2011 | Washington, DC
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case • World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India
• Renewables are the world’s fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8% per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in 2035 • Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in 2035 • Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
2
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued) • Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas use in 2035 is 8 percent higher than in last year’s outlook • Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise 43 percent between 2008 and 2035, reaching 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
3
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 500
2008
Projections 482
400 Non-OECD 300 260
288 OECD
244
200
100
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
4
China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 400 Non-OECD Asia
Projections Other Non-OECD
OECD
300
200
100
0 1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
5
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year 7 6
Energy Intensity
GDP per capita
Population
5
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
-3 -4 U.S.
OECD Europe
Japan
South Korea
China
India
Brazil
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
6
Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy consumption world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 250
2008
Projections Liquids (including biofuels)
29% 27%
200 34% 150
Coal
23% Share of world total
28% Natural gas
100
14%
23%
Renewables (excluding biofuels) 10%
50
7% Nuclear
5% 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
7
Liquid fuels markets
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
8
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases represent a wide range of prices world oil price paths real 2009 dollars per barrel 2009
History
Projections
225 High Oil Price case
200 175 150 125
Reference case
100 75 50
Low Oil Price case
25 0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
9
Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels world liquids production million barrels per day 2008
History
120
Projections
Unconventional
100
12%
5% 80
OPEC conventional
40%
41%
60
40 Non-OPEC conventional
55%
48%
20 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
10
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 18
2008
2035
16 14 12 10
8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Iran
Other Middle East OPEC
Africa
South America
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
11
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14
2008
2035
12 10 8
6 4 2 0 Russia
United States
Brazil
Kazakhstan
OECD Europe
Mexico
Canada
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
12
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels Unconventional production million barrels per day 6
2008
2035
5
4
3
2
1
0 Oil sands/bitumen
Biofuels
Extra-heavy oil
Coal-to-liquids
Gas-to-liquids
Oil Shale
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
13
High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and supply schedules relative to the Reference case worldwide liquids consumption and production in 2035 million barrels per day
80
Reference case
High Price case
Low Price case
60 40 20 0 OECD
Non-OECD Asia Rest of World
Demand
OPEC conventional
Non-OPEC Unconventional conventional
Supply
Source: International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
14
Natural gas markets
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
15
Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History 120 OECD
Projections
Non-OECD 100
100 83 80 66 55 56
60
57
68 62
49 40
37 37
39
20
0 1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
16
The Middle East and non-OECD Asia account for the largest increases in natural gas production world natural gas production increment, 2008-2035 trillion cubic feet
Middle East
15
Non-OECD Asia
12
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
10
Africa
7
United States
6
Central and South America
4
Australia/New Zealand
4
Canada Other OECD
3 -2
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
17
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
18
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the 48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed Technically Recoverable
Continent
(trillion cubic feet) North America Africa Asia
Canada, Mexico
1,069
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Western Sahara, South Africa
1,042
China, India, Pakistan
1,404
Australia Europe
South America
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
396 France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Turkey Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay
624
1,225
19
Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada natural gas production trillion cubic feet 30
20 Unconventional (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) 10
Conventional (all other gas) 0 2008 2035 China
2008 2035 Canada
2008
2035
United States
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
20
Electricity markets
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
21
Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the world’s electricity in 2035 world electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours History
Projections
40
30
Coal
20
Natural gas Nuclear
10
Hydropower Other renewables Liquids
0
1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
22
China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in coal-fired generation coal-fired generation trillion kilowatthours History
8
United States
China
Projections
Non-OECD Asia (excluding China)
Rest of world
6
4
2
0 1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
23
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
24
Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History
25 OECD
Projections
Other Non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
20 15 10 5 0
1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
25
Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2008
Projections
50
40
30 Coal
20 Liquids
10 Natural gas
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
26
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
27
