International Energy Outlook 2017
International Energy Outlook 2017
for Center for Strategic and International Studies September 14, 2017 | Washington, DC by Dr. Ian Mead, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case • World energy consumption increases from 575 quadrillion Btu in 2015 to 736 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 28% increase • More than 60% of the increase in energy consumption by 2040 comes from non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India • Even though demand in the residential and transportation sectors grows more rapidly, the industrial sector still accounts for over 50% of delivered energy consumption in 2040 • Transportation energy use rises by nearly 30% between 2015 and 2040 with almost all of the growth occurring in non-OECD regions
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
2
Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case (continued) • Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing an average 2.3%/year between 2015 and 2040 • Fossil fuels remain dominant, supplying 77% of the world’s energy consumption in 2040 • Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with global consumption increasing an average 1.4%/year between 2015 and 2040 • Coal use remains flat over the projection period as declines in China are largely offset by increases in India and other parts of Asia • World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow an average 0.6%/year between 2015 and 2040, far below the 1.3%/year growth from 1990 to 2015
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
3
Overview
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
4
IEO2017 addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side cases focusing on overall energy consumption • The effects of assumptions about economic growth on energy consumption are addressed in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. World gross domestic product increases by 3.3%/year from 2015 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and by 2.7%/year in the Low Economic Growth case, compared with 3.0%/year in the Reference case • The High and Low Oil Price cases address the uncertainty associated with the trajectory of world energy prices. In the Low Oil Price case, the price of North Sea Brent crude in 2016 dollars reaches $43/barrel by 2040, compared with $109/barrel in the Reference case and $226/barrel in the High Oil Price case • Although the graphics in this presentation focus on projections through 2040, this IEO is the first projection to include model results through 2050, which are available on the IEO page of the EIA website; EIA welcomes feedback on the assumptions and results over the period of 2040–50
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
5
World energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case with most of the increase occurring in non-OECD countries World energy consumption quadrillion Btu Past trend
800
Outlook
600 Non-OECD 400
200 OECD 0 1990
2000
2010
2015
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
6
Asia accounts for most of the increase in energy use in non-OECD regions in the Reference case Non-OECD energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu Past trend
500
Outlook
400 Asia
300 200
Middle East Africa Americas Europe and Eurasia
100 0 1990
2000
2010
2015
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
7
Economic growth—a major driver of energy demand—is greater on average in nonOECD countries Average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015-40 OECD Australia/New Zealand
2.6
Mexico/Chile
India
2.3
United States
2.0
Canada
1.5
OECD Europe
1.4
5.0
China
2.1
South Korea
Non-OECD
4.3
Other Asia
3.9
Africa
3.9
Middle East
3.0
Other Americas
2.6
Other Europe/Eurasia
2.4
Brazil Japan
0.2
Total OECD
Russia
1
2
1.4
Total Non-OECD
1.7 0
1.6
3
4
5
6
3.8 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: EIA and Oxford Economic Model (March 2017) Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
8
Energy consumption varies across the High and Low Economic Growth cases World energy consumption in three economic growth cases quadrillion Btu 1,000
2030
2015
2040
800 600 Non-OECD 400 200
OECD
0 Reference
High Low Economic Growth
Reference Case
Low High Economic Growth
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
9
Future oil prices are another key source of uncertainty in the projections World oil prices in three cases real 2016 dollars per barrel
World energy consumption in three cases quadrillion Btu 2030
2015
250
1,000
High Oil Price case
225
2040
800
200 175
600
150
Other
125
400
Reference case
100
200
75
Liquids
Low Oil Price case
50
0
25 0 2015
Ref 2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Ref
Low High Ref Oil Price Case
Low High Oil Price Case
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
10
The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of energy consumption through 2040 in the Reference case World energy consumption by end-use sector quadrillion Btu Past trend
350 300 250
Outlook
Buildings Transportation Industrial
200 150 100 50 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
11
Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other than coal in the Reference case with renewables being the fastest-growing energy source World energy consumption by energy source quadrillion Btu Past trend
250
Outlook Petroleum and other liquids
200 Coal 150 Natural gas 100 Renewables 50 0 1990
Nuclear
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
12
Energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 25% in the non-OECD countries, but they remain relatively flat in the OECD countries World energy-related CO2 emissions billion metric tons Past trend
45
Outlook
40 35 30 25 Non-OECD
20 15 10
OECD
5 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
13
Although population and per capita output continue to rise, energy and carbon intensity are projected to continue to fall in the Reference case Population
Per capita gross domestic product
million people
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
thousand Btu per dollar
metric tons CO2 per billion Btu
thousand dollars
8,000
60
7,000
50
6,000
Non-OECD
40
5,000 4,000
30
3,000
20
2,000 1,000 0 1990
10 OECD
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2040 1990
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
14
Income and population growth heavily influence energy demand, but improvements in energy intensity can offset associated increases in energy consumption Energy intensity, per capita GDP, and population growth in selected regions average annual percent change, 2015-40 5 4 3
Energy intensity Per capita GDP Population
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 United States
OECD Europe
Japan
South Korea
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
15
Liquid fuels markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
16
Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption grows by 18% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case because of growth in non-OECD regions Petroleum and other liquids consumption million barrels per day 120 Past trend
Outlook Other non-OECD
100
Non-OECD Americas 80 Non-OECD Asia 60 40
OECD Asia OECD Europe
20 OECD Americas 0 1990
1995
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
17
Sectoral shares of world liquids use hold relatively constant in the Reference case even as total consumption increases Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption by end-use sector quadrillion Btu 140 120
56%
Transportation 54%
100 36%
Industrial
80 36% 60 40
Buildings Electricity
6% 20 4% 0 2015
2020
2025
5% 2% 2030
2035
2040
Note: Percentages express a sector’s liquids consumption compared to total use of these fuels across all end uses.
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
18
Liquid fuel supplies increase from 2015 to 2040 with most of the growth occurring in OPEC crude oil and lease condensate World petroleum and other liquids production million barrels per day 70
Past trend
Outlook
60 50
47
48
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate
40
44
34 30 20
16
Other liquids 21
10 0 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
19
Natural gas plant liquids and biofuels account for most of the other liquids supplies World other liquids supplies million barrels per day 2015 2030 2040
Biofuels
Coal-to-liquids
Gas-to-liquids
Natural gas plant liquids
Refinery gain 0
5
10
15
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
20
OPEC crude oil production increases between 2015 and 2040 with most of the growth occurring in the Middle East OPEC crude and lease condensate production by region million barrels per day 2040
35 2030
30 25
2015
20 15 10 5 0 Middle East
North Africa
West Africa
South America
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
21
Non-OPEC crude oil production increases less than 2% between 2015 and 2040, but growth in Russia, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan increases by 24% Crude and lease condensate production million barrels per day 12 10 8 6 2040 2030
4
2015 2 0 Russia
United States
Canada
Brazil
Kazakhstan
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
22
Natural gas markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
23
World natural gas consumption increases by 43% from 2015 to 2040 in the Reference case largely because of demand growth in non-OECD countries World natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet 120
Past trend
Outlook
100 80
Non-OECD
60
OECD
40 20 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
24
Power and industrial sectors account for nearly 75% of the increase in natural gas consumption between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case Natural gas consumption by sector quadrillion Btu 200
Past trend
Outlook
175
Transportation
150
Buildings
125 Industrial
100 75 50
Electric power
25 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
25
Middle East, the United States, and China account for more than 60% of the world increase in natural gas production Increase in natural gas production, 2015-40 trillion cubic feet Middle East United States China Russia Australia and New Zealand Africa Other non-OECD Asia Canada Non-OECD Americas 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
26
Shale gas and tight gas become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the United States, but also for China and Canada Natural gas production trillion cubic feet 40
30 Shale gas 20 Coalbed methane
10
Tight gas Other
0 2015
2030
2040
Canada
2015
2030 China
2040
2015
2030
2040
United States
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
27
Electricity markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
28
Net electricity generation in non-OECD countries increases twice as fast as in the OECD with building use being a major contributor to growth in the Reference case OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation trillion kilowatthours
World electricity use by sector quadrillion Btu
25
50
20
40
non-OECD
Industrial Residential
15
30
OECD
20
10
Commercial 10
5
Transportation 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
29
In the Reference case, renewables and natural gas provide much of the growth in electricity generation with their combined share of the total rising to 57% in 2040 World electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours
Share of net electricity generation percent
40
100%
Liquids Nuclear
90%
35
80% 30
Natural gas
70%
25
60%
20
50%
15
40%
Coal
30%
10
20%
5
Renewables
10%
0
0% 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
30
Wind and solar dominate growth in renewables and represent two-thirds of related capacity additions by 2040 World net electricity generation from renewable power trillion kilowatthours
percent share of renewable energy 100%
12
Other
90% 10
80%
Geothermal Solar
70%
8
60%
Wind
50%
6
40% 4
30%
Hydropower
20%
2
10% 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
31
China accounts for two-thirds of the net increase in world installed nuclear capacity from 2015 to 2040 Nuclear electricity generating capacity gigawatts OECD 150 2015
125
Non-OECD
150 125
2030 100
100
2040
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0 OECD Americas
OECD Europe
South Korea
Japan
China
Russia
India
Rest of World
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
32
Industrial and Buildings
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
33
In non-OECD regions, industrial coal consumption declines slightly as natural gas consumption increases in the Reference case Industrial energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu OECD
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD Renewables Electricity Coal
Natural gas Liquids
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
34
Non-OECD countries drive increases in residential and commercial energy consumption Residential sector energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu
Commercial sector energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu
80
80
70
70
60
Other non- 60 OECD 50
50
30
Non-OECD 40 Asia 30
20
20
40
OECD
10
OECD
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
10 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
35
Per capita residential energy consumption increases in most non-OECD regions Residential per capita energy consumption million Btu per person OECD
Non-OECD Total Non-OECD
2015 2040
Brazil
2015 2040
Africa Middle East India China Russia Non-OECD Europe and Non-OECD Europe… 0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
36
Transportation
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
37
Motor gasoline and diesel continue to dominate the transportation fuel mix, but jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity grow fastest in the Reference case Transportation sector delivered energy consumption by source quadrillion Btu 150 Electricity Diesel (including biodiesel)
120 90
Other liquids
60
Motor gasoline and E85
30
Natural gas Jet fuel
0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
38
In non-OECD countries, light-duty vehicle energy consumption grows rapidly; in OECD countries, portion related to air transportation increases Passenger transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD
Non-OECD
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2-3 wheel vehicles Rail Bus Air
Light duty
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
39
Freight transportation energy consumption remains relatively constant in OECD countries while international marine transportation grows in non-OECD countries Freight transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD
Non-OECD
35
35
30
30
Pipeline
25
25
Marine
20
20
Rail
15
15
Heavy heavy truck
10
10
5
5
Medium heavy truck Light heavy truck
0
0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
40
IEO2017 will feature four Issues in Focus articles which will be released over the next several months • This year’s IEO includes supplementary analyses which discuss particular areas of uncertainty and consider how changing assumptions affect results. • Two of these articles provide alternative projections by varying assumptions. – Transportation and Electric Vehicle Penetration – Economic Growth Rates (China and India)
• Two of these articles provide insight on how EIA considers evolving energy markets. – Investment in Oil and Gas Resources – Paris Climate Agreement
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
41
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo International Energy Statistics database | www.eia.gov/ies
To receive emails concerning releases related to the International Energy Outlook or other EIA publications, please subscribe at https://www.eia.gov/tools/emailupdates/.
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
42
for Center for Strategic and International Studies September 14, 2017 | Washington, DC by Dr. Ian Mead, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case • World energy consumption increases from 575 quadrillion Btu in 2015 to 736 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 28% increase • More than 60% of the increase in energy consumption by 2040 comes from non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India • Even though demand in the residential and transportation sectors grows more rapidly, the industrial sector still accounts for over 50% of delivered energy consumption in 2040 • Transportation energy use rises by nearly 30% between 2015 and 2040 with almost all of the growth occurring in non-OECD regions
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
2
Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case (continued) • Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing an average 2.3%/year between 2015 and 2040 • Fossil fuels remain dominant, supplying 77% of the world’s energy consumption in 2040 • Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with global consumption increasing an average 1.4%/year between 2015 and 2040 • Coal use remains flat over the projection period as declines in China are largely offset by increases in India and other parts of Asia • World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow an average 0.6%/year between 2015 and 2040, far below the 1.3%/year growth from 1990 to 2015
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
3
Overview
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
4
IEO2017 addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side cases focusing on overall energy consumption • The effects of assumptions about economic growth on energy consumption are addressed in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. World gross domestic product increases by 3.3%/year from 2015 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and by 2.7%/year in the Low Economic Growth case, compared with 3.0%/year in the Reference case • The High and Low Oil Price cases address the uncertainty associated with the trajectory of world energy prices. In the Low Oil Price case, the price of North Sea Brent crude in 2016 dollars reaches $43/barrel by 2040, compared with $109/barrel in the Reference case and $226/barrel in the High Oil Price case • Although the graphics in this presentation focus on projections through 2040, this IEO is the first projection to include model results through 2050, which are available on the IEO page of the EIA website; EIA welcomes feedback on the assumptions and results over the period of 2040–50
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
5
World energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case with most of the increase occurring in non-OECD countries World energy consumption quadrillion Btu Past trend
800
Outlook
600 Non-OECD 400
200 OECD 0 1990
2000
2010
2015
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
6
Asia accounts for most of the increase in energy use in non-OECD regions in the Reference case Non-OECD energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu Past trend
500
Outlook
400 Asia
300 200
Middle East Africa Americas Europe and Eurasia
100 0 1990
2000
2010
2015
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
7
Economic growth—a major driver of energy demand—is greater on average in nonOECD countries Average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015-40 OECD Australia/New Zealand
2.6
Mexico/Chile
India
2.3
United States
2.0
Canada
1.5
OECD Europe
1.4
5.0
China
2.1
South Korea
Non-OECD
4.3
Other Asia
3.9
Africa
3.9
Middle East
3.0
Other Americas
2.6
Other Europe/Eurasia
2.4
Brazil Japan
0.2
Total OECD
Russia
1
2
1.4
Total Non-OECD
1.7 0
1.6
3
4
5
6
3.8 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: EIA and Oxford Economic Model (March 2017) Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
8
Energy consumption varies across the High and Low Economic Growth cases World energy consumption in three economic growth cases quadrillion Btu 1,000
2030
2015
2040
800 600 Non-OECD 400 200
OECD
0 Reference
High Low Economic Growth
Reference Case
Low High Economic Growth
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
9
Future oil prices are another key source of uncertainty in the projections World oil prices in three cases real 2016 dollars per barrel
World energy consumption in three cases quadrillion Btu 2030
2015
250
1,000
High Oil Price case
225
2040
800
200 175
600
150
Other
125
400
Reference case
100
200
75
Liquids
Low Oil Price case
50
0
25 0 2015
Ref 2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Ref
Low High Ref Oil Price Case
Low High Oil Price Case
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
10
The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of energy consumption through 2040 in the Reference case World energy consumption by end-use sector quadrillion Btu Past trend
350 300 250
Outlook
Buildings Transportation Industrial
200 150 100 50 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
11
Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other than coal in the Reference case with renewables being the fastest-growing energy source World energy consumption by energy source quadrillion Btu Past trend
250
Outlook Petroleum and other liquids
200 Coal 150 Natural gas 100 Renewables 50 0 1990
Nuclear
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
12
Energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 25% in the non-OECD countries, but they remain relatively flat in the OECD countries World energy-related CO2 emissions billion metric tons Past trend
45
Outlook
40 35 30 25 Non-OECD
20 15 10
OECD
5 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
13
Although population and per capita output continue to rise, energy and carbon intensity are projected to continue to fall in the Reference case Population
Per capita gross domestic product
million people
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
thousand Btu per dollar
metric tons CO2 per billion Btu
thousand dollars
8,000
60
7,000
50
6,000
Non-OECD
40
5,000 4,000
30
3,000
20
2,000 1,000 0 1990
10 OECD
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2040 1990
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
14
Income and population growth heavily influence energy demand, but improvements in energy intensity can offset associated increases in energy consumption Energy intensity, per capita GDP, and population growth in selected regions average annual percent change, 2015-40 5 4 3
Energy intensity Per capita GDP Population
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 United States
OECD Europe
Japan
South Korea
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
15
Liquid fuels markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
16
Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption grows by 18% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case because of growth in non-OECD regions Petroleum and other liquids consumption million barrels per day 120 Past trend
Outlook Other non-OECD
100
Non-OECD Americas 80 Non-OECD Asia 60 40
OECD Asia OECD Europe
20 OECD Americas 0 1990
1995
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
17
Sectoral shares of world liquids use hold relatively constant in the Reference case even as total consumption increases Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption by end-use sector quadrillion Btu 140 120
56%
Transportation 54%
100 36%
Industrial
80 36% 60 40
Buildings Electricity
6% 20 4% 0 2015
2020
2025
5% 2% 2030
2035
2040
Note: Percentages express a sector’s liquids consumption compared to total use of these fuels across all end uses.
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
18
Liquid fuel supplies increase from 2015 to 2040 with most of the growth occurring in OPEC crude oil and lease condensate World petroleum and other liquids production million barrels per day 70
Past trend
Outlook
60 50
47
48
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate
40
44
34 30 20
16
Other liquids 21
10 0 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
19
Natural gas plant liquids and biofuels account for most of the other liquids supplies World other liquids supplies million barrels per day 2015 2030 2040
Biofuels
Coal-to-liquids
Gas-to-liquids
Natural gas plant liquids
Refinery gain 0
5
10
15
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
20
OPEC crude oil production increases between 2015 and 2040 with most of the growth occurring in the Middle East OPEC crude and lease condensate production by region million barrels per day 2040
35 2030
30 25
2015
20 15 10 5 0 Middle East
North Africa
West Africa
South America
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
21
Non-OPEC crude oil production increases less than 2% between 2015 and 2040, but growth in Russia, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan increases by 24% Crude and lease condensate production million barrels per day 12 10 8 6 2040 2030
4
2015 2 0 Russia
United States
Canada
Brazil
Kazakhstan
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
22
Natural gas markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
23
World natural gas consumption increases by 43% from 2015 to 2040 in the Reference case largely because of demand growth in non-OECD countries World natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet 120
Past trend
Outlook
100 80
Non-OECD
60
OECD
40 20 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
24
Power and industrial sectors account for nearly 75% of the increase in natural gas consumption between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case Natural gas consumption by sector quadrillion Btu 200
Past trend
Outlook
175
Transportation
150
Buildings
125 Industrial
100 75 50
Electric power
25 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
25
Middle East, the United States, and China account for more than 60% of the world increase in natural gas production Increase in natural gas production, 2015-40 trillion cubic feet Middle East United States China Russia Australia and New Zealand Africa Other non-OECD Asia Canada Non-OECD Americas 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
26
Shale gas and tight gas become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the United States, but also for China and Canada Natural gas production trillion cubic feet 40
30 Shale gas 20 Coalbed methane
10
Tight gas Other
0 2015
2030
2040
Canada
2015
2030 China
2040
2015
2030
2040
United States
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
27
Electricity markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
28
Net electricity generation in non-OECD countries increases twice as fast as in the OECD with building use being a major contributor to growth in the Reference case OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation trillion kilowatthours
World electricity use by sector quadrillion Btu
25
50
20
40
non-OECD
Industrial Residential
15
30
OECD
20
10
Commercial 10
5
Transportation 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
29
In the Reference case, renewables and natural gas provide much of the growth in electricity generation with their combined share of the total rising to 57% in 2040 World electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours
Share of net electricity generation percent
40
100%
Liquids Nuclear
90%
35
80% 30
Natural gas
70%
25
60%
20
50%
15
40%
Coal
30%
10
20%
5
Renewables
10%
0
0% 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
30
Wind and solar dominate growth in renewables and represent two-thirds of related capacity additions by 2040 World net electricity generation from renewable power trillion kilowatthours
percent share of renewable energy 100%
12
Other
90% 10
80%
Geothermal Solar
70%
8
60%
Wind
50%
6
40% 4
30%
Hydropower
20%
2
10% 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
31
China accounts for two-thirds of the net increase in world installed nuclear capacity from 2015 to 2040 Nuclear electricity generating capacity gigawatts OECD 150 2015
125
Non-OECD
150 125
2030 100
100
2040
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0 OECD Americas
OECD Europe
South Korea
Japan
China
Russia
India
Rest of World
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
32
Industrial and Buildings
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
33
In non-OECD regions, industrial coal consumption declines slightly as natural gas consumption increases in the Reference case Industrial energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu OECD
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD Renewables Electricity Coal
Natural gas Liquids
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
34
Non-OECD countries drive increases in residential and commercial energy consumption Residential sector energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu
Commercial sector energy consumption by region quadrillion Btu
80
80
70
70
60
Other non- 60 OECD 50
50
30
Non-OECD 40 Asia 30
20
20
40
OECD
10
OECD
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
10 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
35
Per capita residential energy consumption increases in most non-OECD regions Residential per capita energy consumption million Btu per person OECD
Non-OECD Total Non-OECD
2015 2040
Brazil
2015 2040
Africa Middle East India China Russia Non-OECD Europe and Non-OECD Europe… 0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
36
Transportation
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
37
Motor gasoline and diesel continue to dominate the transportation fuel mix, but jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity grow fastest in the Reference case Transportation sector delivered energy consumption by source quadrillion Btu 150 Electricity Diesel (including biodiesel)
120 90
Other liquids
60
Motor gasoline and E85
30
Natural gas Jet fuel
0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
38
In non-OECD countries, light-duty vehicle energy consumption grows rapidly; in OECD countries, portion related to air transportation increases Passenger transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD
Non-OECD
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2-3 wheel vehicles Rail Bus Air
Light duty
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
39
Freight transportation energy consumption remains relatively constant in OECD countries while international marine transportation grows in non-OECD countries Freight transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD
Non-OECD
35
35
30
30
Pipeline
25
25
Marine
20
20
Rail
15
15
Heavy heavy truck
10
10
5
5
Medium heavy truck Light heavy truck
0
0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
40
IEO2017 will feature four Issues in Focus articles which will be released over the next several months • This year’s IEO includes supplementary analyses which discuss particular areas of uncertainty and consider how changing assumptions affect results. • Two of these articles provide alternative projections by varying assumptions. – Transportation and Electric Vehicle Penetration – Economic Growth Rates (China and India)
• Two of these articles provide insight on how EIA considers evolving energy markets. – Investment in Oil and Gas Resources – Paris Climate Agreement
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
41
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo International Energy Statistics database | www.eia.gov/ies
To receive emails concerning releases related to the International Energy Outlook or other EIA publications, please subscribe at https://www.eia.gov/tools/emailupdates/.
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
42
