JAKARTA RETAIL REPORT
JAKARTA RETAIL REPORT 3Q11
ECONOMY As of end September 2011, the Indonesia’s economy remained strong with the current GDP figure of 6.6%, surpassing the target of 6.5% by the government. This strong figure is well supported by the strong domestic consumption, investment as well as healthy export. In the last month of the third quarter, Rupiah experienced significant depreciation against the USD at the rate of Rp8,940/USD by the end of Q3, reflecting a QoQ change of -3.8%. During the 3rd quarter, prices have increased by 0.93% making the YoY inflation figure to 4.79%. Year-to-date FDI realization totaled USD 9,180 million, while the 9 month’s SBI rate during the quarter averaged at 6.28%.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS NATIONAL
GDP Growth
2010
2011
2012F
6.0%
6.6%
6.7%
CPI Growth
6.0%
7.0%
7.0%
Central Bank-Rate
6.5%
6.75%
7.0%
Source: Government data (BPS, BI, Ministry of Finance) and CEIC; 2010-2011 forecasts by IMA Asia
SIGNIFICANT Q3 LEASING TRANSACTIONS
OVERVIEW LE ASING ACTIVI TI ES
LOCATION
TENANT
SQUAR E METER
KELAPA GADING MALL
NORTH JAKARTA
PONG’S HOME CENTER
4,000
MAL TAMAN ANGGREK
WEST JAKARTA
PONG’S HOME CENTER
1,500
CBD JAKARTA
ALEGRO KARAOKE
1,000
SOUTH JAKARTA
FARMERS MARKET
2,600
PROPERTY
With no new retail center completed in the 3rd quarter 2011, moderate leasing transaction was observed during the review quarter. New opening stores were recorded in the existing centers, especially to capture the moment of Ramadhan month and Idul Fitri celebration in August 2011. A new big tenant, Pongs Home Center (Do It Best), opened its first branches in Jakarta, two are located in the retail centers, i.e. Kelapa Gading Mall and Mal Taman Anggrek. Other anchor / big tenants which opened new branches during the review period included Farmers Market in Kalibata City Square and Alegro Karaoke in Epicentrum Walk.
EPICENTRUM WALK KALIBATA CITY SQUARE
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTY
LOCATION
SQUARE METER
COMPLETION DATE
KUNINGAN CITY
CBD JAKARTA
55,000
2011
DEM AND
CIPUTRA WORLD
CBD JAKARTA
77,000
2012
As of September 2011, the average occupancy rate of the Jakarta retail market increased by 0.8% over the previous quarter’s figure to 81.7%, leaving approximately 637,000 sq.m of vacant retail space.
KOTA KASABLANKA
SOUTH JAKARTA
110,000
2012
KEMANG VILLAGE
SOUTH JAKARTA
55,000
2012
By sub-sector, the occupancy rate of the existing rental retail centers in Jakarta increased by 0.5% and stood at 88.9% at the end of the quarter, whilst the strata-title centers saw its occupancy at 66.6%, an increase of 1.2% from the last quarter’s figure.
PRIME RETAIL BASE RENTS – MALLS LOCAL CURRENCY (RP/SQ.M/MONTH)
The increase of occupancy rate in strata-title centers, was especially recorded with the opening of new kiosks in Tanah Abang Blok B, the latest completed strata-title center (in 3Q 2010), which is located in the established commercial area in Central Jakarta of Tanah Abang. rd
With no new retail center completed during the 3 quarter 2011, the net take-up of Jakarta retail space was recorded relatively low at 26,500 sq.m, a decrease of 38.4% from the previous quarter’s figure.
1 | JAKARTA RETAIL REPORT 3Q11
LOCATION
Overall Jakarta - Primary Location - Secondary Location
Q310
Q211
Q311
EURO US$ 12 MONTH SQ.M/YR SQ FT./YR OUTLOOK
597,900 602,500
615,000
609.2
76.7
Stable
834,000 834,000
854,000
845.9
106.5
Stable
499,600 506,000
515,400
510.5
64.3
Stable
JAKARTA RETAIL REPORT 3Q 2011
SUPPLY As of September 2011, with no new retail center completed, the total retail supply in Jakarta was recorded at 3,487,300 sq.m, comprising 2,366,000 sq.m (67.8%) within retail centers for lease and 1,121,300 sq.m (32.2%) in strata-title retail centers. Change in retail stock was especially due to minor additional and/or reduction of retail space in some existing centers. CBD and North Jakarta continue to contribute the largest portions of supply at 737,200 sq.m (21.1%) and 737,000 sq.m (21.1%), respectively. South and West Jakarta follow at 658,900 sq.m (18.9%) and 618,400 sq.m (17.7%) of space respectively, whilst Central and East Jakarta comprise 439,900 sq.m (12.6%), and 295,900 sq.m (8.5%) of the total supply. Through to the end of 2011, a further 100,700 sq.m of retail space is expected to enter the market. Almost all (96.0%) of this future supply will be centers for lease, with only 4.0% of strata-title space. Should these proposed new centers meet their completion schedules, total supply within Jakarta will reach 3,588,000 sq.m by the end of the year.
(QoQ) or 2.9% (YoY) for specialty shop units on the ground floor within premium locations. Service charges ranged between US$10.00 and US$14.50 per sq.m per month (Rp.72,500 to Rp.130,500). The concessionary exchange rates ranged between Rp.7,000 and Rp.9,000 per US$1.00.
OUTLOOK Leasing transactions are expected to remain active and new retailers are expected to continue making pre-commitments, especially in the under-construction centers. Improving general buying power, as reflected in high GDP growth and positive macro economic indicators, has allured foreign retailers to open their outlets in Indonesia, especially in Jakarta. Leasing transaction are mix between F&B and other retailers, such as super/hypermarket, fashion, electronics, tools and hardware, etc.
Some retail centers slightly increased their concessionary exchange rates or service charges during the reviewed quarter.
Jakarta retail market will experience moderate growth of supply of below 10% per annum for the next 2 years. Less new launched retail projects was observed during 2011. The Governor’s plan to issue mall moratorium of new permit for retail centers bigger than 5,000 sm will further decelerate the growth of retail supply in the city.
As of September 2011, average base rentals were recorded at Rp.615,000 per sq.m per month or an increase of 2.1%
Increase of concessionary exchange rate and service charge in some centers are anticipated in the following quarters.
RENTAL GROWTH
JAKARTA RETAIL SUPPLY BY DISTRICT
4,000,000
100.0%
3,500,000
87.5%
3,000,000
75.0%
2,500,000
62.5%
2,000,000
50.0%
1,500,000
37.5%
1,000,000
25.0%
500,000
12.5%
-
CBD 21.1%
0.0% 2006
2007
Cumulative Supply
2008
2009
Cumulative Demand
2010
Central 12.6%
Occupancy Rate
Cummulative Supply and Demand (sm)
SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND OCCUPANCY RATE
3Q11
North 21.1% West 17.7%
East 8.5%
South 18.9%
Occupancy Rate
FOR INDUSTRIAL-LEADING INTELLIGENCE TO SUPPORT YOUR REAL ESTATE AND BUSINESS DECICIONS, GO TO CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD’S KNOWLEDGE CENTER AT: www.cusmanwakefield.com/knowledge
This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman & Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. ©2011 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. Please consider your environmental responsibility before printing this report.
PT. Cushman & Wakefield Indonesia. Indonesia Stock Exchange Building Tw.2, 15th fl. Jakarta, Indonesia +62 21 2550 9500
ECONOMY As of end September 2011, the Indonesia’s economy remained strong with the current GDP figure of 6.6%, surpassing the target of 6.5% by the government. This strong figure is well supported by the strong domestic consumption, investment as well as healthy export. In the last month of the third quarter, Rupiah experienced significant depreciation against the USD at the rate of Rp8,940/USD by the end of Q3, reflecting a QoQ change of -3.8%. During the 3rd quarter, prices have increased by 0.93% making the YoY inflation figure to 4.79%. Year-to-date FDI realization totaled USD 9,180 million, while the 9 month’s SBI rate during the quarter averaged at 6.28%.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS NATIONAL
GDP Growth
2010
2011
2012F
6.0%
6.6%
6.7%
CPI Growth
6.0%
7.0%
7.0%
Central Bank-Rate
6.5%
6.75%
7.0%
Source: Government data (BPS, BI, Ministry of Finance) and CEIC; 2010-2011 forecasts by IMA Asia
SIGNIFICANT Q3 LEASING TRANSACTIONS
OVERVIEW LE ASING ACTIVI TI ES
LOCATION
TENANT
SQUAR E METER
KELAPA GADING MALL
NORTH JAKARTA
PONG’S HOME CENTER
4,000
MAL TAMAN ANGGREK
WEST JAKARTA
PONG’S HOME CENTER
1,500
CBD JAKARTA
ALEGRO KARAOKE
1,000
SOUTH JAKARTA
FARMERS MARKET
2,600
PROPERTY
With no new retail center completed in the 3rd quarter 2011, moderate leasing transaction was observed during the review quarter. New opening stores were recorded in the existing centers, especially to capture the moment of Ramadhan month and Idul Fitri celebration in August 2011. A new big tenant, Pongs Home Center (Do It Best), opened its first branches in Jakarta, two are located in the retail centers, i.e. Kelapa Gading Mall and Mal Taman Anggrek. Other anchor / big tenants which opened new branches during the review period included Farmers Market in Kalibata City Square and Alegro Karaoke in Epicentrum Walk.
EPICENTRUM WALK KALIBATA CITY SQUARE
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTY
LOCATION
SQUARE METER
COMPLETION DATE
KUNINGAN CITY
CBD JAKARTA
55,000
2011
DEM AND
CIPUTRA WORLD
CBD JAKARTA
77,000
2012
As of September 2011, the average occupancy rate of the Jakarta retail market increased by 0.8% over the previous quarter’s figure to 81.7%, leaving approximately 637,000 sq.m of vacant retail space.
KOTA KASABLANKA
SOUTH JAKARTA
110,000
2012
KEMANG VILLAGE
SOUTH JAKARTA
55,000
2012
By sub-sector, the occupancy rate of the existing rental retail centers in Jakarta increased by 0.5% and stood at 88.9% at the end of the quarter, whilst the strata-title centers saw its occupancy at 66.6%, an increase of 1.2% from the last quarter’s figure.
PRIME RETAIL BASE RENTS – MALLS LOCAL CURRENCY (RP/SQ.M/MONTH)
The increase of occupancy rate in strata-title centers, was especially recorded with the opening of new kiosks in Tanah Abang Blok B, the latest completed strata-title center (in 3Q 2010), which is located in the established commercial area in Central Jakarta of Tanah Abang. rd
With no new retail center completed during the 3 quarter 2011, the net take-up of Jakarta retail space was recorded relatively low at 26,500 sq.m, a decrease of 38.4% from the previous quarter’s figure.
1 | JAKARTA RETAIL REPORT 3Q11
LOCATION
Overall Jakarta - Primary Location - Secondary Location
Q310
Q211
Q311
EURO US$ 12 MONTH SQ.M/YR SQ FT./YR OUTLOOK
597,900 602,500
615,000
609.2
76.7
Stable
834,000 834,000
854,000
845.9
106.5
Stable
499,600 506,000
515,400
510.5
64.3
Stable
JAKARTA RETAIL REPORT 3Q 2011
SUPPLY As of September 2011, with no new retail center completed, the total retail supply in Jakarta was recorded at 3,487,300 sq.m, comprising 2,366,000 sq.m (67.8%) within retail centers for lease and 1,121,300 sq.m (32.2%) in strata-title retail centers. Change in retail stock was especially due to minor additional and/or reduction of retail space in some existing centers. CBD and North Jakarta continue to contribute the largest portions of supply at 737,200 sq.m (21.1%) and 737,000 sq.m (21.1%), respectively. South and West Jakarta follow at 658,900 sq.m (18.9%) and 618,400 sq.m (17.7%) of space respectively, whilst Central and East Jakarta comprise 439,900 sq.m (12.6%), and 295,900 sq.m (8.5%) of the total supply. Through to the end of 2011, a further 100,700 sq.m of retail space is expected to enter the market. Almost all (96.0%) of this future supply will be centers for lease, with only 4.0% of strata-title space. Should these proposed new centers meet their completion schedules, total supply within Jakarta will reach 3,588,000 sq.m by the end of the year.
(QoQ) or 2.9% (YoY) for specialty shop units on the ground floor within premium locations. Service charges ranged between US$10.00 and US$14.50 per sq.m per month (Rp.72,500 to Rp.130,500). The concessionary exchange rates ranged between Rp.7,000 and Rp.9,000 per US$1.00.
OUTLOOK Leasing transactions are expected to remain active and new retailers are expected to continue making pre-commitments, especially in the under-construction centers. Improving general buying power, as reflected in high GDP growth and positive macro economic indicators, has allured foreign retailers to open their outlets in Indonesia, especially in Jakarta. Leasing transaction are mix between F&B and other retailers, such as super/hypermarket, fashion, electronics, tools and hardware, etc.
Some retail centers slightly increased their concessionary exchange rates or service charges during the reviewed quarter.
Jakarta retail market will experience moderate growth of supply of below 10% per annum for the next 2 years. Less new launched retail projects was observed during 2011. The Governor’s plan to issue mall moratorium of new permit for retail centers bigger than 5,000 sm will further decelerate the growth of retail supply in the city.
As of September 2011, average base rentals were recorded at Rp.615,000 per sq.m per month or an increase of 2.1%
Increase of concessionary exchange rate and service charge in some centers are anticipated in the following quarters.
RENTAL GROWTH
JAKARTA RETAIL SUPPLY BY DISTRICT
4,000,000
100.0%
3,500,000
87.5%
3,000,000
75.0%
2,500,000
62.5%
2,000,000
50.0%
1,500,000
37.5%
1,000,000
25.0%
500,000
12.5%
-
CBD 21.1%
0.0% 2006
2007
Cumulative Supply
2008
2009
Cumulative Demand
2010
Central 12.6%
Occupancy Rate
Cummulative Supply and Demand (sm)
SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND OCCUPANCY RATE
3Q11
North 21.1% West 17.7%
East 8.5%
South 18.9%
Occupancy Rate
FOR INDUSTRIAL-LEADING INTELLIGENCE TO SUPPORT YOUR REAL ESTATE AND BUSINESS DECICIONS, GO TO CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD’S KNOWLEDGE CENTER AT: www.cusmanwakefield.com/knowledge
This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman & Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. ©2011 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. Please consider your environmental responsibility before printing this report.
PT. Cushman & Wakefield Indonesia. Indonesia Stock Exchange Building Tw.2, 15th fl. Jakarta, Indonesia +62 21 2550 9500
