Ju uly 26, 2011 2
INVE ESTMENT RESEARCH R
TE ECHNIC CAL ANA ALYSIS S GEN NERAL IND DEX: The MS SM 30 indexx closed 0.22 2% higher at 5,939 led by b gain ns in the finan ncial sector while w the indu ustry and servvices indices closed lowerr. Marrket turnover was higher than t in the prrevious sessiion at RO 3.7 78 million witth 7.22 2 million share res traded. Om mani and othe er investors were w net selle ers while GCC C and Arab investo ors were net buyers. b Regio onal markets closed mostlly lower led by b decllines in Abu Dhabi D and Saudi Arabia. US markets closed lowerr yesterday as a unce ertainty abou ut US debt ceiling and a possible ratings r down ngrade impacct inve estors’ sentim ment. The Dow w fell 0.70% and a the S&P 500 5 lost 0.56% on decline es in te elecom and healthcare h sttocks. Europe ean shares closed c lower after Moody’’s dow wngraded Gre eece to near default statu us. Asian ma arkets have opened o highe er toda ay with the Nikkei N trading g 0.66% high her. Crude is trading high her at $99.5 a barrrel while gold inched highe er to trade at $1,617 $ a troyy ounce.
GENERA AL INDEX
5,939
SMA 21 day
6,141
SMA 50 day
6,420
RSI (14 day)
35
Supportt/resistance
5,888/5,98 88
So ource: Ticker Ch hart
Th he Financial in ndex rose 1.0 05% led by OUIS O (7.81%, RO 0.069) an nd BKDB (7.0 01%, RO 0.59 95) Th he Industry index fell 0.14% % led by RCC CI (-2.60%, RO R 1.051) and d GECS (-0.7 73%, RO 0.410) Th he Services in ndex fell 0.29 9% led by SOM MS (-2.67%, RO 2.336) an nd OIFC (-1.7 70%, RO 0.17 74) MSM INVESTOR R PARTICIPATION – JULY 25 5, 2011 NATIONA ALITY OMAN NIS GCC C ARAB BS OTHER RS Source: MSM M
July 26, 2011
SELL
BUY
VOLU UME
VALU UE
VOLUME
VALUE
90.5 50% 3.65 5% 0.95 5% 4.89 9%
95.29 9% 0.92% % 0.38% % 3.42% %
85.21% % 10.33% % 0.85% % 3.60% %
89.51% 7.96% 0.54% 1.99%
TRANSGULF INVESTMENT HOLDING (TGII): The near term outlook for this stock is bullish and the stock is likely to move higher to around RO 0.080. The stock is currently trading significantly below our estimated fair value of RO 0.105 arrived by determining the net asset value of its holdings based on comparable market price of its holdings but adjusted down for holding company discount.
CMP (RO)
0.069
Medium term Outlook P/BV (MRQ)
0.6x
P/E one-yr forward ROE (TTM) (%)
7%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
1%
Cash Div Yield (%)
0%
Source: Ticker Chart
NATIONAL GAS (NGCI): The medium term outlook for this stock remains bullish as seen by its rising long term moving averages and MACD. The stock has been outperforming for the year with a year to date gain of 26%. NGCI reported a 94% YoY growth in net profit in Q2 2011 at RO 271K but lower sequentially by 28%. Sales increased 87% YoY and 24% QoQ at RO 5.18 million. The stock currently trades at 9.8x its 2011E EPS of RO 0.050. NGCI is a LPG distributor supplying in Oman and other GCC countries.
Source: Ticker Chart
July 26, 2011
CMP (RO)
0.490
Medium term Outlook P/E (TTM)
12.7x
P/E one-yr forward ROE (TTM) (%)
12%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
18%
Cash Div Yield (%)
6%
MAJAN COLLEGE (BACS): The medium term outlook for this stock is bullish with the stock recovering from a major support at RO 0.265 on rising volumes. Long term moving averages and momentum indicators are bullish for this stock. We expect this stock to continue to outperform the market in the medium term and is likely to move towards a major resistance at RO 0.325. BACS reported a 13.9% YoY increase in total income for the nine months ended May 31, 2011 at RO 2.57 million. Net profit after tax rose 18.8% YoY to RO 727K in 9M 2010-11 from RO 612K during 9M 2009-10. This stock carries one of the highest dividend yields in the MSM at 11%.
CMP (RO)
0.289
Medium term Outlook P/E (TTM)
9.6x
P/E one-yr forward ROE (TTM) (%)
16%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector Cash Div Yield (%)
10%
CMP (RO)
2.336
Source: Ticker Chart
SHELL OMAN MARKETING (SOMS): This stock saw a sharp increase in volume yesterday and fell 2.7%. It trades just above a major support at RO 2.300, a close below which would imply a bearish near term outlook with the stock likely to move lower to RO 2.200.
Medium term Outlook P/E (TTM)
16.1x
P/E one-yr forward
Source: Ticker Chart
July 26, 2011
ROE (TTM) (%)
48%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
32%
Cash Div Yield (%)
6%
MUSCAT SECURITIES MARKET AS ON MONDAY 25-7-2011 SNAPSHOT MARKET INDICES MSM INDICES
VALUATION MATRIX
CLOSE
CHANGE
YTD
MSM INDICES
PER
P/BV
DY%
MCAP (RO'MN)
GENERAL INDEX
5,939.45
0.22%
-12.07%
GENERAL INDEX
9.25
1.79
4.84%
5,497
FINANCIAL INDEX
6,522.46
1.05%
-21.60%
FINANCIAL INDEX
18.92
2.60
3.38%
5,530
SERVICES INDEX
2,499.69
-0.29%
-7.61%
SERVICES INDEX
9.61
2.22
7.07%
1,874
INDUSTRY INDEX
6,614.51
-0.14%
-9.47%
INDUSTRY INDEX
12.13
2.10
6.59%
665
CLOSE
PREVIOUS
CHANGE
0.092
0.084
9.52%
TOP GAINERS COMPANY UNITED FINANCE (UFCI ) TRANSGULF HOLDING (TGII )
TOP LOSERS
0.069
BANK DHOFAR (BKDB )
0.064
0.595
0.556
7.81% 7.01%
COMPANY SHELL OMAN MARKETING (SOMS ) RAYSUT CEMENT (RCCI ) NAT. BK. OF OMAN (NBOB )
CLOSE
PREVIOUS
CHANGE
2.336
2.400
-2.67%
1.051
1.079
-2.59%
0.323
0.331
-2.42% -1.69% -1.59%
OM. EMIRATES (OM) (OEIO )
0.106
0.101
4.95%
OMAN INV. & FIN. (OIFC )
0.174
0.177
DHOFAR CATTLEFEED (DCFI )
0.132
0.126
4.76%
NAT. MINERAL WATER (NMWI )
0.062
0.063
HIGHEST TRADED - VOLUMES
HIGHEST TRADED - TURNOVER
COMPANY
VOLUME
52 WK AVG VOL
CHANGE
COMPANY
TRANSGULF HOLDING (TGII )
1,353,442
20,190
6603.4%
VALUE
52 WK AVG VOL
CHANGE
1,999,925
13,934
14253.1%
245,635
951,858
-74.2%
SHELL OMAN MARKETING (SOMS ) UNITED FINANCE (UFCI )
895,100
30,374
2847.0%
SHELL OMAN MARKETING (SOMS ) BANK MUSCAT (BKMB )
577,127
13,364
4218.6%
BANK DHOFAR (BKDB )
213,242
132,389
61.1%
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
458,823
136,724
235.6%
DHOFAR INT. DEV. (DIDI )
168,208
136,260
23.4%
GULF INV. SER. (GISI )
425,540
28,280
1404.7%
NAWRAS (NWRS )
165,605
543,294
-69.5%
MARKET COMMENTARY: The MSM 30 index closed 0.22% higher in the last trading session led by gains in the financial sector which closed 1.05% higher while the industry and services sectors lost 0.14% and 0.29% respectively. Amongst regional markets, Abu Dhabi and Saudi fell 0.89% and 0.82% respectively. In US / Europe, the S&P 500 last closed 0.56% lower, the FTSE 100 closed 0.16% lower and the DAX 30 ended 0.25% higher. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite is trading 0.06% higher; the Nikkei is higher by 0.63%, while the BSE Sensex is trading 0.10% lower. Amongst commodities, crude oil is trading at $99.48 per barrel, gold is at $1,617 per troy ounce and copper in New York is at $4.37 per pound.
July 26, 2011
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS US MARKETS
GCC MARKETS
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
12,592.80
-88.36
-0.70%
S&P 500
1,337.43
-7.59
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
2,842.80
-16.03
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
US FUTURES
VALUE
% CHANGE
P/E (TTM)
YTD
SSE – SAUDI ARABIA
6,472.03
-0.82%
13.50
-2.25%
-0.56%
DFM – DUBAI
1,510.58
-0.65%
10.52
-7.36%
-0.56%
ADSM – ABU DHABI
2,663.13
-0.89%
10.50
-2.09%
KSE – KUWAIT
6,065.30
-0.25%
14.62
-12.80%
QSE – DOHA
8,399.80
-0.04%
13.98
-3.25%
BSE – BAHRAIN
1,298.95
0.05%
10.29
-9.31%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
12,575.00
25.00
0.20%
S&P 500
1,336.10
2.60
0.19%
NASDAQ 100
2,427.75
4.25
0.18%
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
EUROPEAN MARKETS
COMMODITY MARKETS CHANGE
% CHANGE
$99.48
0.28
0.28%
$1,617.40
3.00
0.19%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
FTSE 100
5,925.26
-9.76
-0.16%
GOLD – $/troy oz
DAX 30
7,344.54
18.15
0.25%
NATURAL GAS $/ MMbtu
$4.37
-0.02
-0.36%
CAC 40
3,812.97
-29.73
-0.77%
COPPER - cents/lb
443.70
3.05
0.69%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
NIKKEI 225
10,113.80
63.80
0.63%
HANG SENG
22,502.70
209.36
0.94%
2,690.33
1.58
0.06%
18,853.00
-18.30
-0.10%
ASIAN MARKETS
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BSE SENSEX 30
July 26, 2011
OIL – WTI $/bbl
VALUE
MUSCAT SECURITIES MARKET DAILY TRADE BULLETIN COMPANY
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
P/E TTM
P/BV MRQ
DY%
TURNOVER (RO)
A SAFFA FOODS (SPFI )
0.405
0.400
0.402
(0.50)
12.20
3.00
2.5%
5,798
AL ANWAR CERAMIC (AACT )
0.284
0.284
0.284
0.00
10.07
2.25
1.8%
9,372
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT )
0.102
0.100
0.101
1.00
(11.87)
0.66
5.9%
2,932
AL BATNA DEV. & INV. (DBIH )
0.044
0.044
0.044
2.33
(2.22)
0.56
11.6%
352
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS )
0.164
0.159
0.162
(0.61)
6.76
1.13
12.3%
842
AL SHARQIA INV. (SIHC )
0.091
0.091
0.100
0.00
13.44
0.57
7.1%
18
BANK DHOFAR (BKDB )
0.610
0.590
0.595
7.01
16.10
2.42
2.1%
213,242
BANK MUSCAT (BKMB )
0.744
0.738
0.740
0.00
10.25
1.46
3.4%
245,635
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
0.146
0.144
0.145
0.00
13.05
1.25
4.1%
66,366
CONSTRUC. MAT. IND. (CMII )
0.048
0.048
0.048
2.13
(60.01)
0.47
0.0%
480
DHOFAR CATTLEFEED (DCFI )
0.134
0.126
0.132
4.76
(17.74)
0.25
0.0%
9,339
DHOFAR INT. DEV. (DIDI )
0.465
0.445
0.451
1.35
5.06
1.19
8.9%
168,208
GALFAR ENGINEERING (GECS )
0.413
0.403
0.410
(0.73)
16.49
1.62
2.4%
25,924
GLOBAL INVESTMENT (GFIC )
0.052
0.051
0.052
1.96
(14.53)
0.45
0.0%
1,448
GULF INT. CHEMICALS (GICI )
0.194
0.194
0.194
0.52
5.76
1.41
7.7%
11,058
GULF INV. SER. (GISI )
0.063
0.061
0.062
1.64
6.69
0.58
8.1%
26,381
JAZEERA STEEL PRODCT (ATMI )
0.290
0.288
0.288
(0.35)
15.25
1.15
3.1%
43,766
MAJAN COLLEGE (BACS )
0.295
0.280
0.289
4.33
9.59
1.53
10.4%
21,113
NAT. BK. OF OMAN (NBOB )
0.325
0.320
0.323
(2.42)
11.77
1.37
4.6%
118,448
NAT. MINERAL WATER (NMWI )
0.062
0.062
0.062
(1.59)
(1.62)
0.88
0.0%
775
NATIONAL ALUMINUIM (NAPI )
0.432
0.420
0.429
3.37
8.21
1.89
9.3%
101,844
NAWRAS (NWRS )
0.696
0.690
0.694
(0.29)
9.40
3.45
5.5%
165,605
OM. EMIRATES (OEIO )
0.110
0.105
0.106
4.95
(2.77)
0.83
0.0%
44,710
OMAN CABLE INDUSTRY (OCAI )
0.892
0.892
0.895
0.00
10.72
1.83
4.5%
1,338
OMAN CEMENT (OCOI )
0.555
0.555
0.555
(0.72)
8.32
1.31
6.7%
74,727
OMAN FISHERIES (OFCI )
0.098
0.097
0.098
0.00
12.16
0.73
7.1%
1,857
OMAN FLOUR MILLS (OFMI )
0.500
0.500
0.505
0.00
15.37
1.67
5.0%
1,059
OMAN HOL. INT. (OHII )
0.220
0.208
0.217
3.33
3.19
0.53
6.9%
2,486
OMAN INV. & FIN. (OIFC )
0.176
0.173
0.174
(1.70)
7.50
1.14
11.5%
28,940
OMAN TEXTILE HOLDING (OTHI )
0.465
0.465
0.460
0.00
0.66
0.26
32.6%
47
July 26, 2011
COMPANY
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
P/E TTM
P/BV MRQ
DY%
TURNOVER (RO)
OMAN UNITED INS. (OUIS )
0.124
0.122
0.123
1.65
4.51
0.64
12.2%
5,665
OMANTEL (OTEL )
1.076
1.070
1.070
0.00
7.60
1.96
9.3%
138,180
ONIC. HOLDING (ONIC )
0.225
0.222
0.225
1.81
3.74
0.81
11.1%
2,932
PORT SERVICE CORP. (PSCS )
0.479
0.478
0.478
(0.42)
8.42
1.49
11.5%
3,652
RAYSUT CEMENT (RCCI )
1.069
1.020
1.051
(2.60)
13.16
2.18
9.5%
53,143
RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS )
0.870
0.861
0.869
0.00
9.73
1.37
1.4%
33,017
SHELL OMAN MARKETING (SOMS )
2.350
2.300
2.336
(2.67)
16.13
10.94
5.6%
1,999,925
SOHAR POWER (SHPS )
1.613
1.606
1.610
0.00
9.62
1.40
5.0%
1,148
TRANSGULF HOLDING (TGII )
0.070
0.065
0.069
7.81
8.17
0.57
0.0%
93,575
UNITED FINANCE (UFCI )
0.092
0.089
0.092
9.52
13.03
0.69
0.0%
52,909
VOLTAMP ENERGY (VOES )
0.527
0.525
0.525
0.00
12.50
1.79
6.7%
2,235
July 26, 2011
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Gaurav Ramaiya Mable C Pereira
(+968) 24816655 Ext: 320 (+968) 24816655 Ext: 323
BROKERAGE
CONTACT DETAILS Deena Omeir Mohammed Al Ghalayini Halima Al Mahrooqi Riyadh Al Badwi
(+968) 24822300 Ext: 335 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 333 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 305 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 337
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Disclaimer
The research team of The Financial Corporation, SAOG (hereto referred as FINCORP) has prepared the information, analysis and expressed its opinion on the subject matter of this report. The information contained has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but which may not be verified independently. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, FINCORP makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, whether express or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness of the data, being provided. All investment information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The investor will indemnify FINCORP and its directors, officers, and employees against any loss or damage or other liabilities (including costs), which they may suffer as a result of reliance on this report. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Also, not all customers may receive the material at the same time. This document is for private circulation and information purposes only. It does not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. FINCORP will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof, and the investors are expected to use the information contained herein at their own risk. FINCORP and its affiliates or their officers, directors and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. FINCORP and its affiliates may act as market makers or underwrite securities of companies discussed herein (or investments related thereto), and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. Authors or contributors of this report could have direct interest in the capital market or in the securities mentioned herein. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position, and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments, to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. This document is strictly for the use of recipients only. None of the material provided herein may be reproduced, rewritten, rehashed, published, resold or distributed in any manner whatsoever without the prior and explicit written permission of FINCORP.
July 26, 2011