Ju une 13, 2 2011
Ju une 13, 2011 2
INVE ESTMENT RESEARCH R
TE ECHNIC CAL ANA ALYSIS S GEN NERAL IND DEX: The MS SM 30 indexx closed 0.28 8% higher at 6,033, in the prevvious trading session, sup pported by ga ains across alll the three market m sectorss. Marrket turnover was lower th han in the prrevious sessio on at RO 1.0 07 million witth 3.29 9 million shares traded. Omani O and other o investors were net buyers, whille GCC C and Arab in nvestors were e net sellers. Omani and foreign fo institutions were ne et buye ers while GC CC institution ns were net sellers. s Regiional markets s closed on a mixe ed note yestterday with Saudi S up 0.6 61% while Dubai D closed 0.32% lowerr. Asia an markets have h opened mostly lowerr tracking lossses in the US U markets on Frid day. Japan iss trading low wer after a surprise s 3.3% % monthly de ecline in corre macchinery orderrs for the mon nth of April. Gold is tradin ng at $1,530 0 a troy ounce while e crude is tra ading lower att $98 a barrell.
GENERA AL INDEX
6,033
SMA 21 day
6,376
SMA 50 day
6,456
RSI (14 day)
36
Supportt/resistance
6,009/6,04 44
So ource: Ticker Ch hart
Th he Banking & Investment in ndex rose 0.5 56% led by AAIT (2.00%, RO R 0.102) an nd OIFC (1.46 6%, RO 0.209 9) Th he Industry index rose 0.55 5% led by AA ACT (3.38%, RO R 0.275) an nd NAPI (1.88 8%, RO 0.380 0) Th he Services & Insurance in ndex rose 0.10% led by AJJSS (1.26%, RO R 0.161) an nd GECS (0.9 94%, RO 0.42 28) MSM INVESTOR R PARTICIPATION – JUNE 12 2, 2011 NATIONA ALITY OMAN NIS GCC C ARAB BS OTHER RS Source: MSM M
June 13, 2011
SELL
BUY
VOLU UME
VALU UE
VOLUME
VALUE
85.8 86% 7.26 6% 2.49 9% 4.40 0%
78.93 3% 12.28 8% 1.85% % 6.93% %
86.29% % 5.68% % 2.09% % 5.95% %
85.65% 5.37% 1.81% 7.16%
TRANSGULF INVESTMENT HOLDING (TGII): TGII has been trading above a key support at RO 0.055 over the past four months. The medium term outlook for the stock is likely to turn bullish if it manages to close above RO 0.070. Momentum indicators have already started to reverse their downtrend. TGII owns a 9% stake in Al Madina Real Estate (AMRE) (RO 2.35 million). AMRE in turn holds a 24% stake in Tilal Development Company which is the developer of Tilal Complex. TGII management has indicated that Tilal Development might seek listing while latest media reports suggest that AMRE would seek listing later this year. TGII currently trades at a 38% discount to our fair value of RO 0.105.
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook P/BV (MRQ) P/E one-yr forward
0.060 NEUTRAL 0.5x -
ROE (TTM) (%)
7%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
1%
Cash Div Yield (%)
0%
Source: Ticker Chart
OMINVEST (OMVS): The medium term outlook for this stock remains bullish with its long term moving averages and momentum indicators still rising. OMVS is likely to divest a part of its 51% stake in Oman Arab Bank later this year through an IPO. As we believe that the fair value of OAB is much higher than what is currently reflected in the stock price of OMVS, we expect OMVS to move higher to around RO 0.585. OMVS reported a consolidated net profit of RO 2.48 million in Q1 2011 as against RO 3.07 million in Q1 2010. Net interest income of its banking subsidiary increased 14.6% YoY but commission and other income declined 13% YoY. The parent company reported a 9% YoY increase in investment income mainly due to higher dividend payout from Oman Arab Bank. Operating expenses for the group increased significantly by 21% YoY mainly at its subsidiary. Net provision for loan impairment was positive as recoveries exceeded fresh provisions in Q1 2011.
Source: Ticker Chart
June 13, 2011
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook P/BV (MRQ) P/E one-yr forward
0.490 BULLISH 1.3x -
ROE (TTM) (%)
13%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
1%
Cash Div Yield (%)
2%
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS): AJSS has lost nearly 17% in the current month after its Board decided to liquidate its entire available for sale portfolio valued at RO 2 million as on June 1, 2011. Fair value losses on this portfolio amount to RO 1.86 million. The fair value loss is already reflected in its net assets per share which will not change post liquidation. It needs to be seen how the management would use these proceeds going forward. One option would be to acquire an additional stake in AACT especially given that the latter secured gas supply for its fourth production line.
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook P/E (TTM) P/E one-yr forward
0.161 BEARISH 6.7x -
ROE (TTM) (%)
17%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
16%
Cash Div Yield (%)
12%
Source: Ticker Chart
AL MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS): The medium term outlook of MAHS remains bullish as seen by rising long term moving averages and momentum indicators. A close below RO 10.700 would however signal a bearish trend reversal. MHAS reported a 26% YoY growth in sales in Q1 2011 owing to higher sales from retail, commercial and aviation fuel segments. However gross margins declined significantly to 8.62% in Q1 2011 from 10.9% in Q1 2010 which shows intense margin pressure in its core business. Higher lease income and lower technical fees offset a part of the gross margin shrinkage. Overall net profit margin declined slightly by 20 bps YoY to 3.3%. Sales volume was strong owing to opening for four new retail fuel sites and higher aviation and commercial fuel volumes. Margin pressure in its core business is expected to continue going forward which can limit earnings growth. The stock currently trades at around 9.8x its 2011E EPS of RO 1.150.
Source: Ticker Chart
June 13, 2011
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook
11.230 BULLISH
P/E (TTM)
11.0x
P/E one-yr forward
9.8x
ROE (TTM) (%)
22%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
32%
Cash Div Yield (%)
6%
MUSCAT SECURITIES MARKET AS ON SUNDAY 12-6-2011 SNAPSHOT MARKET INDICES MSM INDICES
VALUATION MATRIX
CLOSE
CHANGE
YTD
MSM INDICES
PER*
P/BV
DY%
MCAP (RO'MN)
GENERAL INDEX
6,033.24
0.28%
-10.68%
GENERAL INDEX
11.81
2.28
4.61%
5,234
BANKING /INVESTMENT INDEX
6,478.56
0.56%
-22.13%
BANKING /INVESTMENT INDEX
12.65
1.52
3.40%
3,032
SERVICES & INSURANCE INDEX
2,522.67
0.10%
-6.77%
SERVICES & INSURANCE INDEX
9.15
1.88
7.17%
1,462
INDUSTRY INDEX
6,701.76
0.55%
-8.28%
INDUSTRY INDEX
10.90
1.81
6.08%
741
CLOSE
PREVIOUS
CHANGE
0.398
0.378
5.29%
TOP GAINERS COMPANY OMAN TEXTILE HOLDING (OTHI ) AL ANWAR CERAMIC (AACT )
TOP LOSERS
0.275
0.266
3.38%
AHLI BANK (ABOB )
0.279
0.272
2.57%
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT )
0.102
0.100
2.00%
NATIONAL ALUMINUIM (NAPI )
0.380
0.373
1.88%
COMPANY
CLOSE
PREVIOUS
CHANGE
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS )
11.230
11.284
-0.48%
0.257
0.258
-0.39%
0.564
0.565
-0.18%
OMAN INT. BK. (OIBB ) OMAN CEMENT (OCOI )
HIGHEST TRADED - TURNOVER
HIGHEST TRADED - VOLUMES COMPANY
VOLUME
52 WK AVG VOL
CHANGE
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
1,016,971
125,642
709.4%
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS )
245,886
58,327
OMINVEST (OMVS )
235,854
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT ) NAWRAS (NWRS )
COMPANY
VALUE
52 WK AVG VOL
CHANGE
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
146,128
637,459
-77.1%
321.6%
NAWRAS (NWRS )
128,896
494,052
-73.9%
109,489
115.4%
RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS )
125,762
590,213
-78.7%
229,760
50,569
354.3%
OMINVEST (OMVS )
115,567
208,833
-44.7%
193,004
372,629
-48.2%
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS )
81,418
4,480
1717.4%
MARKET COMMENTARY: The MSM 30 index closed 0.28% higher in the last trading session with the banking/investment sector gaining 0.56%, the industry sector gaining 0.55% and the services/insurance sector gaining 0.10%. Amongst regional markets, Saudi and Qatar gained 0.61% and 0.12% respectively. In US / Europe, the S&P 500 last closed 1.40% lower, the FTSE 100 closed 1.55% lower, while the DAX 30 ended 1.25% lower. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite is trading 1.11% lower; the Nikkei is trading 0.24% higher, while the BSE Sensex trades 0.60% lower. Amongst commodities, crude oil traded at $98.85 per barrel, gold is at $1,531 per troy ounce and copper in New York is at $4.06 per pound. *PER for the MSM general index as well as the sector indices have been calculated excluding companies which have a negative EPS (TTM)
June 13, 2011
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS US MARKETS
GCC MARKETS
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
11,951.91
-172.45
-1.42%
S&P 500
1,270.98
-18.02
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
2,643.73
-41.14
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
US FUTURES
VALUE
% CHANGE
P/E (TTM)
YTD
SSE – SAUDI ARABIA
6,549.42
0.61%
14.01
-1.08%
-1.40%
DFM – DUBAI
1,551.67
-0.32%
10.76
-4.84%
-1.53%
ADSM – ABU DHABI
2,700.84
-0.09%
10.51
-0.70%
KSE – KUWAIT
6,306.00
-0.01%
15.05
-9.34%
QSE – DOHA
8,286.08
0.12%
14.17
-4.56%
BSE – BAHRAIN
1,348.78
0.08%
10.79
-5.83%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
11,883.00
10.00
0.08%
S&P 500
1,264.70
0.20
0.02%
NASDAQ 100
2,220.00
2.25
0.10%
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
EUROPEAN MARKETS
COMMODITY MARKETS CHANGE
% CHANGE
$98.86
(0.43)
-0.43%
$1,531.50
2.30
0.15%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
FTSE 100
5,765.80
-90.50
-1.55%
GOLD – $/troy oz
DAX 30
7,069.90
-89.76
-1.25%
NATURAL GAS $/ MMbtu
$4.76
0.00
0.02%
CAC 40
3,805.09
-73.56
-1.90%
COPPER - cents/lb
406.00
(1.55)
-0.38%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
NIKKEI 225
9,514.44
47.29
0.50%
HANG SENG
22,420.37
-51.80
-0.23%
2,705.14
1.79
0.07%
18,268.54
-116.36
-0.63%
ASIAN MARKETS
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BSE SENSEX 30
June 13, 2011
OIL – WTI $/bbl
VALUE
MUSCAT SECURITIES MARKET DAILY TRADE BULLETIN COMPANY
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
P/E TTM
P/BV MRQ
DY%
TURNOVER (RO)
A SAFFA FOODS (SPFI )
0.387
0.380
0.384
0.52
12.63
2.87
2.6%
2,749
ACWA POWER BARKA (APBS )
1.291
1.291
1.291
0.00
5.22
1.27
7.4%
3,891
AHLI BANK (ABOB )
0.280
0.272
0.279
2.57
14.92
2.11
0.0%
1,673
AL ANWAR CERAMIC (AACT )
0.275
0.265
0.275
3.38
9.90
2.18
1.8%
22,875
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT )
0.103
0.100
0.102
2.00
(11.99)
0.66
5.9%
23,470
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS )
0.164
0.159
0.161
1.26
6.71
1.12
12.4%
39,573
BANK MUSCAT (BKMB )
0.750
0.748
0.748
0.00
11.03
1.48
3.3%
30,201
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
0.144
0.143
0.144
0.70
13.79
1.28
4.2%
146,128
CONSTRUC. MAT. IND. (CMII )
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.00
49.08
0.48
0.0%
2,325
DHOFAR CATTLEFEED (DCFI )
0.115
0.114
0.115
0.88
(15.45)
0.22
0.0%
1,328
DHOFAR INT. DEV. (DIDI )
0.470
0.460
0.468
0.00
5.25
1.23
8.5%
1,103
DHOFAR POWER (DHPS )
2.000
2.000
2.000
0.00
14.78
1.29
0.0%
2,514
GALFAR ENGINEERING (GECS )
0.431
0.424
0.428
0.94
17.22
1.69
2.3%
56,900
GLOBAL INVESTMENT (GFIC )
0.050
0.050
0.050
0.00
(13.97)
0.43
0.0%
3,232
GULF INT. CHEMICALS (GICI )
0.189
0.189
0.189
0.00
5.62
1.38
7.9%
378
GULF INV. SER. (GISI )
0.058
0.058
0.058
0.00
(34.24)
0.55
8.6%
1,083
JAZEERA STEEL PRODCT (ATMI )
0.273
0.268
0.270
0.37
14.30
1.08
3.3%
7,554
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS )
11.230
11.230
11.230
(0.48)
11.05
2.59
6.2%
81,418
NAT. BK. OF OMAN (NBOB )
0.321
0.320
0.321
0.00
12.25
1.36
4.7%
40,124
NATIONAL ALUMINUIM (NAPI )
0.380
0.380
0.380
1.88
6.51
1.67
10.5%
67,393
NAWRAS (NWRS )
0.671
0.665
0.668
1.37
9.05
3.32
5.7%
128,896
OMAN CEMENT (OCOI )
0.568
0.563
0.564
(0.18)
8.46
1.33
6.6%
28,297
OMAN FILTERS IND. (OFII )
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.00
0.12
0.06
0.0%
306
OMAN FISHERIES (OFCI )
0.114
0.114
0.114
0.00
14.15
0.85
0.0%
12,581
OMAN HOL. INT. (OHII )
0.250
0.250
0.252
0.00
3.70
0.62
6.0%
1,250
OMAN INT. BK. (OIBB )
0.258
0.255
0.257
(0.39)
15.20
1.57
5.8%
19,168
OMAN INV. & FIN. (OIFC )
0.210
0.208
0.209
1.46
9.01
1.37
3.8%
6,030
OMAN REFRESHMENT (ORCI )
1.000
1.000
0.967
0.00
14.17
4.43
10.3%
1,000
OMAN TEXTILE HOLDING (OTHI )
0.398
0.398
0.398
5.29
0.54
0.22
39.7%
796
OMAN UNITED INS. (OUIS )
0.124
0.122
0.123
0.00
5.83
0.64
12.2%
7,377
June 13, 2011
COMPANY
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
P/E TTM
P/BV MRQ
DY%
TURNOVER (RO)
OMANTEL (OTEL )
1.100
1.093
1.095
0.18
7.78
2.00
9.1%
75,849
OMINVEST (OMVS )
0.490
0.488
0.490
0.00
10.91
1.34
2.0%
115,567
ONIC. HOLDING (ONIC )
0.244
0.233
0.234
1.30
3.89
0.85
10.7%
10,672
RAYSUT CEMENT (RCCI )
1.088
1.061
1.087
0.37
11.51
2.35
9.2%
5,589
RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS )
0.860
0.855
0.856
0.23
9.58
1.35
1.4%
125,762
SOHAR POWER (SHPS )
1.576
1.576
1.576
0.00
9.41
1.37
5.1%
723
VOLTAMP ENERGY (VOES )
0.531
0.530
0.540
0.00
12.85
1.85
6.5%
1,092
June 13, 2011
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Anil Kumar, CFA
(+968) 24816655 Ext: 340
[email protected]
Gaurav Ramaiya Mable C Pereira
(+968) 24816655 Ext: 320 (+968) 24816655 Ext: 323
[email protected] [email protected]
BROKERAGE
CONTACT DETAILS Deena Omeir Mohammed Al Ghalayini Halima Al Mahrooqi Riyadh Al Badwi
(+968) 24822300 Ext: 335 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 333 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 305 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 337
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Disclaimer
The research team of The Financial Corporation, SAOG (hereto referred as FINCORP) has prepared the information, analysis and expressed its opinion on the subject matter of this report. The information contained has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but which may not be verified independently. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, FINCORP makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, whether express or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness of the data, being provided. All investment information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The investor will indemnify FINCORP and its directors, officers, and employees against any loss or damage or other liabilities (including costs), which they may suffer as a result of reliance on this report. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Also, not all customers may receive the material at the same time. This document is for private circulation and information purposes only. It does not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. FINCORP will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof, and the investors are expected to use the information contained herein at their own risk. FINCORP and its affiliates or their officers, directors and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. FINCORP and its affiliates may act as market makers or underwrite securities of companies discussed herein (or investments related thereto), and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. Authors or contributors of this report could have direct interest in the capital market or in the securities mentioned herein. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position, and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments, to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. This document is strictly for the use of recipients only. None of the material provided herein may be reproduced, rewritten, rehashed, published, resold or distributed in any manner whatsoever without the prior and explicit written permission of FINCORP.
June 13, 2011
INVE ESTMENT RESEARCH R
TE ECHNIC CAL ANA ALYSIS S GEN NERAL IND DEX: The MS SM 30 indexx closed 0.28 8% higher at 6,033, in the prevvious trading session, sup pported by ga ains across alll the three market m sectorss. Marrket turnover was lower th han in the prrevious sessio on at RO 1.0 07 million witth 3.29 9 million shares traded. Omani O and other o investors were net buyers, whille GCC C and Arab in nvestors were e net sellers. Omani and foreign fo institutions were ne et buye ers while GC CC institution ns were net sellers. s Regiional markets s closed on a mixe ed note yestterday with Saudi S up 0.6 61% while Dubai D closed 0.32% lowerr. Asia an markets have h opened mostly lowerr tracking lossses in the US U markets on Frid day. Japan iss trading low wer after a surprise s 3.3% % monthly de ecline in corre macchinery orderrs for the mon nth of April. Gold is tradin ng at $1,530 0 a troy ounce while e crude is tra ading lower att $98 a barrell.
GENERA AL INDEX
6,033
SMA 21 day
6,376
SMA 50 day
6,456
RSI (14 day)
36
Supportt/resistance
6,009/6,04 44
So ource: Ticker Ch hart
Th he Banking & Investment in ndex rose 0.5 56% led by AAIT (2.00%, RO R 0.102) an nd OIFC (1.46 6%, RO 0.209 9) Th he Industry index rose 0.55 5% led by AA ACT (3.38%, RO R 0.275) an nd NAPI (1.88 8%, RO 0.380 0) Th he Services & Insurance in ndex rose 0.10% led by AJJSS (1.26%, RO R 0.161) an nd GECS (0.9 94%, RO 0.42 28) MSM INVESTOR R PARTICIPATION – JUNE 12 2, 2011 NATIONA ALITY OMAN NIS GCC C ARAB BS OTHER RS Source: MSM M
June 13, 2011
SELL
BUY
VOLU UME
VALU UE
VOLUME
VALUE
85.8 86% 7.26 6% 2.49 9% 4.40 0%
78.93 3% 12.28 8% 1.85% % 6.93% %
86.29% % 5.68% % 2.09% % 5.95% %
85.65% 5.37% 1.81% 7.16%
TRANSGULF INVESTMENT HOLDING (TGII): TGII has been trading above a key support at RO 0.055 over the past four months. The medium term outlook for the stock is likely to turn bullish if it manages to close above RO 0.070. Momentum indicators have already started to reverse their downtrend. TGII owns a 9% stake in Al Madina Real Estate (AMRE) (RO 2.35 million). AMRE in turn holds a 24% stake in Tilal Development Company which is the developer of Tilal Complex. TGII management has indicated that Tilal Development might seek listing while latest media reports suggest that AMRE would seek listing later this year. TGII currently trades at a 38% discount to our fair value of RO 0.105.
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook P/BV (MRQ) P/E one-yr forward
0.060 NEUTRAL 0.5x -
ROE (TTM) (%)
7%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
1%
Cash Div Yield (%)
0%
Source: Ticker Chart
OMINVEST (OMVS): The medium term outlook for this stock remains bullish with its long term moving averages and momentum indicators still rising. OMVS is likely to divest a part of its 51% stake in Oman Arab Bank later this year through an IPO. As we believe that the fair value of OAB is much higher than what is currently reflected in the stock price of OMVS, we expect OMVS to move higher to around RO 0.585. OMVS reported a consolidated net profit of RO 2.48 million in Q1 2011 as against RO 3.07 million in Q1 2010. Net interest income of its banking subsidiary increased 14.6% YoY but commission and other income declined 13% YoY. The parent company reported a 9% YoY increase in investment income mainly due to higher dividend payout from Oman Arab Bank. Operating expenses for the group increased significantly by 21% YoY mainly at its subsidiary. Net provision for loan impairment was positive as recoveries exceeded fresh provisions in Q1 2011.
Source: Ticker Chart
June 13, 2011
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook P/BV (MRQ) P/E one-yr forward
0.490 BULLISH 1.3x -
ROE (TTM) (%)
13%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
1%
Cash Div Yield (%)
2%
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS): AJSS has lost nearly 17% in the current month after its Board decided to liquidate its entire available for sale portfolio valued at RO 2 million as on June 1, 2011. Fair value losses on this portfolio amount to RO 1.86 million. The fair value loss is already reflected in its net assets per share which will not change post liquidation. It needs to be seen how the management would use these proceeds going forward. One option would be to acquire an additional stake in AACT especially given that the latter secured gas supply for its fourth production line.
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook P/E (TTM) P/E one-yr forward
0.161 BEARISH 6.7x -
ROE (TTM) (%)
17%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
16%
Cash Div Yield (%)
12%
Source: Ticker Chart
AL MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS): The medium term outlook of MAHS remains bullish as seen by rising long term moving averages and momentum indicators. A close below RO 10.700 would however signal a bearish trend reversal. MHAS reported a 26% YoY growth in sales in Q1 2011 owing to higher sales from retail, commercial and aviation fuel segments. However gross margins declined significantly to 8.62% in Q1 2011 from 10.9% in Q1 2010 which shows intense margin pressure in its core business. Higher lease income and lower technical fees offset a part of the gross margin shrinkage. Overall net profit margin declined slightly by 20 bps YoY to 3.3%. Sales volume was strong owing to opening for four new retail fuel sites and higher aviation and commercial fuel volumes. Margin pressure in its core business is expected to continue going forward which can limit earnings growth. The stock currently trades at around 9.8x its 2011E EPS of RO 1.150.
Source: Ticker Chart
June 13, 2011
CMP (RO) Medium term Outlook
11.230 BULLISH
P/E (TTM)
11.0x
P/E one-yr forward
9.8x
ROE (TTM) (%)
22%
Avg ROE (TTM )Sector
32%
Cash Div Yield (%)
6%
MUSCAT SECURITIES MARKET AS ON SUNDAY 12-6-2011 SNAPSHOT MARKET INDICES MSM INDICES
VALUATION MATRIX
CLOSE
CHANGE
YTD
MSM INDICES
PER*
P/BV
DY%
MCAP (RO'MN)
GENERAL INDEX
6,033.24
0.28%
-10.68%
GENERAL INDEX
11.81
2.28
4.61%
5,234
BANKING /INVESTMENT INDEX
6,478.56
0.56%
-22.13%
BANKING /INVESTMENT INDEX
12.65
1.52
3.40%
3,032
SERVICES & INSURANCE INDEX
2,522.67
0.10%
-6.77%
SERVICES & INSURANCE INDEX
9.15
1.88
7.17%
1,462
INDUSTRY INDEX
6,701.76
0.55%
-8.28%
INDUSTRY INDEX
10.90
1.81
6.08%
741
CLOSE
PREVIOUS
CHANGE
0.398
0.378
5.29%
TOP GAINERS COMPANY OMAN TEXTILE HOLDING (OTHI ) AL ANWAR CERAMIC (AACT )
TOP LOSERS
0.275
0.266
3.38%
AHLI BANK (ABOB )
0.279
0.272
2.57%
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT )
0.102
0.100
2.00%
NATIONAL ALUMINUIM (NAPI )
0.380
0.373
1.88%
COMPANY
CLOSE
PREVIOUS
CHANGE
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS )
11.230
11.284
-0.48%
0.257
0.258
-0.39%
0.564
0.565
-0.18%
OMAN INT. BK. (OIBB ) OMAN CEMENT (OCOI )
HIGHEST TRADED - TURNOVER
HIGHEST TRADED - VOLUMES COMPANY
VOLUME
52 WK AVG VOL
CHANGE
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
1,016,971
125,642
709.4%
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS )
245,886
58,327
OMINVEST (OMVS )
235,854
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT ) NAWRAS (NWRS )
COMPANY
VALUE
52 WK AVG VOL
CHANGE
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
146,128
637,459
-77.1%
321.6%
NAWRAS (NWRS )
128,896
494,052
-73.9%
109,489
115.4%
RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS )
125,762
590,213
-78.7%
229,760
50,569
354.3%
OMINVEST (OMVS )
115,567
208,833
-44.7%
193,004
372,629
-48.2%
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS )
81,418
4,480
1717.4%
MARKET COMMENTARY: The MSM 30 index closed 0.28% higher in the last trading session with the banking/investment sector gaining 0.56%, the industry sector gaining 0.55% and the services/insurance sector gaining 0.10%. Amongst regional markets, Saudi and Qatar gained 0.61% and 0.12% respectively. In US / Europe, the S&P 500 last closed 1.40% lower, the FTSE 100 closed 1.55% lower, while the DAX 30 ended 1.25% lower. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite is trading 1.11% lower; the Nikkei is trading 0.24% higher, while the BSE Sensex trades 0.60% lower. Amongst commodities, crude oil traded at $98.85 per barrel, gold is at $1,531 per troy ounce and copper in New York is at $4.06 per pound. *PER for the MSM general index as well as the sector indices have been calculated excluding companies which have a negative EPS (TTM)
June 13, 2011
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS US MARKETS
GCC MARKETS
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
11,951.91
-172.45
-1.42%
S&P 500
1,270.98
-18.02
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
2,643.73
-41.14
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
US FUTURES
VALUE
% CHANGE
P/E (TTM)
YTD
SSE – SAUDI ARABIA
6,549.42
0.61%
14.01
-1.08%
-1.40%
DFM – DUBAI
1,551.67
-0.32%
10.76
-4.84%
-1.53%
ADSM – ABU DHABI
2,700.84
-0.09%
10.51
-0.70%
KSE – KUWAIT
6,306.00
-0.01%
15.05
-9.34%
QSE – DOHA
8,286.08
0.12%
14.17
-4.56%
BSE – BAHRAIN
1,348.78
0.08%
10.79
-5.83%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
11,883.00
10.00
0.08%
S&P 500
1,264.70
0.20
0.02%
NASDAQ 100
2,220.00
2.25
0.10%
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
EUROPEAN MARKETS
COMMODITY MARKETS CHANGE
% CHANGE
$98.86
(0.43)
-0.43%
$1,531.50
2.30
0.15%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
FTSE 100
5,765.80
-90.50
-1.55%
GOLD – $/troy oz
DAX 30
7,069.90
-89.76
-1.25%
NATURAL GAS $/ MMbtu
$4.76
0.00
0.02%
CAC 40
3,805.09
-73.56
-1.90%
COPPER - cents/lb
406.00
(1.55)
-0.38%
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
NIKKEI 225
9,514.44
47.29
0.50%
HANG SENG
22,420.37
-51.80
-0.23%
2,705.14
1.79
0.07%
18,268.54
-116.36
-0.63%
ASIAN MARKETS
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BSE SENSEX 30
June 13, 2011
OIL – WTI $/bbl
VALUE
MUSCAT SECURITIES MARKET DAILY TRADE BULLETIN COMPANY
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
P/E TTM
P/BV MRQ
DY%
TURNOVER (RO)
A SAFFA FOODS (SPFI )
0.387
0.380
0.384
0.52
12.63
2.87
2.6%
2,749
ACWA POWER BARKA (APBS )
1.291
1.291
1.291
0.00
5.22
1.27
7.4%
3,891
AHLI BANK (ABOB )
0.280
0.272
0.279
2.57
14.92
2.11
0.0%
1,673
AL ANWAR CERAMIC (AACT )
0.275
0.265
0.275
3.38
9.90
2.18
1.8%
22,875
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT )
0.103
0.100
0.102
2.00
(11.99)
0.66
5.9%
23,470
AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS )
0.164
0.159
0.161
1.26
6.71
1.12
12.4%
39,573
BANK MUSCAT (BKMB )
0.750
0.748
0.748
0.00
11.03
1.48
3.3%
30,201
BANK SOHAR (BKSB )
0.144
0.143
0.144
0.70
13.79
1.28
4.2%
146,128
CONSTRUC. MAT. IND. (CMII )
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.00
49.08
0.48
0.0%
2,325
DHOFAR CATTLEFEED (DCFI )
0.115
0.114
0.115
0.88
(15.45)
0.22
0.0%
1,328
DHOFAR INT. DEV. (DIDI )
0.470
0.460
0.468
0.00
5.25
1.23
8.5%
1,103
DHOFAR POWER (DHPS )
2.000
2.000
2.000
0.00
14.78
1.29
0.0%
2,514
GALFAR ENGINEERING (GECS )
0.431
0.424
0.428
0.94
17.22
1.69
2.3%
56,900
GLOBAL INVESTMENT (GFIC )
0.050
0.050
0.050
0.00
(13.97)
0.43
0.0%
3,232
GULF INT. CHEMICALS (GICI )
0.189
0.189
0.189
0.00
5.62
1.38
7.9%
378
GULF INV. SER. (GISI )
0.058
0.058
0.058
0.00
(34.24)
0.55
8.6%
1,083
JAZEERA STEEL PRODCT (ATMI )
0.273
0.268
0.270
0.37
14.30
1.08
3.3%
7,554
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS )
11.230
11.230
11.230
(0.48)
11.05
2.59
6.2%
81,418
NAT. BK. OF OMAN (NBOB )
0.321
0.320
0.321
0.00
12.25
1.36
4.7%
40,124
NATIONAL ALUMINUIM (NAPI )
0.380
0.380
0.380
1.88
6.51
1.67
10.5%
67,393
NAWRAS (NWRS )
0.671
0.665
0.668
1.37
9.05
3.32
5.7%
128,896
OMAN CEMENT (OCOI )
0.568
0.563
0.564
(0.18)
8.46
1.33
6.6%
28,297
OMAN FILTERS IND. (OFII )
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.00
0.12
0.06
0.0%
306
OMAN FISHERIES (OFCI )
0.114
0.114
0.114
0.00
14.15
0.85
0.0%
12,581
OMAN HOL. INT. (OHII )
0.250
0.250
0.252
0.00
3.70
0.62
6.0%
1,250
OMAN INT. BK. (OIBB )
0.258
0.255
0.257
(0.39)
15.20
1.57
5.8%
19,168
OMAN INV. & FIN. (OIFC )
0.210
0.208
0.209
1.46
9.01
1.37
3.8%
6,030
OMAN REFRESHMENT (ORCI )
1.000
1.000
0.967
0.00
14.17
4.43
10.3%
1,000
OMAN TEXTILE HOLDING (OTHI )
0.398
0.398
0.398
5.29
0.54
0.22
39.7%
796
OMAN UNITED INS. (OUIS )
0.124
0.122
0.123
0.00
5.83
0.64
12.2%
7,377
June 13, 2011
COMPANY
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
P/E TTM
P/BV MRQ
DY%
TURNOVER (RO)
OMANTEL (OTEL )
1.100
1.093
1.095
0.18
7.78
2.00
9.1%
75,849
OMINVEST (OMVS )
0.490
0.488
0.490
0.00
10.91
1.34
2.0%
115,567
ONIC. HOLDING (ONIC )
0.244
0.233
0.234
1.30
3.89
0.85
10.7%
10,672
RAYSUT CEMENT (RCCI )
1.088
1.061
1.087
0.37
11.51
2.35
9.2%
5,589
RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS )
0.860
0.855
0.856
0.23
9.58
1.35
1.4%
125,762
SOHAR POWER (SHPS )
1.576
1.576
1.576
0.00
9.41
1.37
5.1%
723
VOLTAMP ENERGY (VOES )
0.531
0.530
0.540
0.00
12.85
1.85
6.5%
1,092
June 13, 2011
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Anil Kumar, CFA
(+968) 24816655 Ext: 340
[email protected]
Gaurav Ramaiya Mable C Pereira
(+968) 24816655 Ext: 320 (+968) 24816655 Ext: 323
[email protected] [email protected]
BROKERAGE
CONTACT DETAILS Deena Omeir Mohammed Al Ghalayini Halima Al Mahrooqi Riyadh Al Badwi
(+968) 24822300 Ext: 335 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 333 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 305 (+968) 24822300 Ext: 337
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Disclaimer
The research team of The Financial Corporation, SAOG (hereto referred as FINCORP) has prepared the information, analysis and expressed its opinion on the subject matter of this report. The information contained has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but which may not be verified independently. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, FINCORP makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, whether express or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness of the data, being provided. All investment information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The investor will indemnify FINCORP and its directors, officers, and employees against any loss or damage or other liabilities (including costs), which they may suffer as a result of reliance on this report. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Also, not all customers may receive the material at the same time. This document is for private circulation and information purposes only. It does not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. FINCORP will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof, and the investors are expected to use the information contained herein at their own risk. FINCORP and its affiliates or their officers, directors and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. FINCORP and its affiliates may act as market makers or underwrite securities of companies discussed herein (or investments related thereto), and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. Authors or contributors of this report could have direct interest in the capital market or in the securities mentioned herein. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position, and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments, to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. This document is strictly for the use of recipients only. None of the material provided herein may be reproduced, rewritten, rehashed, published, resold or distributed in any manner whatsoever without the prior and explicit written permission of FINCORP.
June 13, 2011
