Lifecycle Cost Analysis of Selected Light-Duty Vehicles Prepared ...
Lifecycle Cost Analysis of Selected Light-Duty Vehicles Prepared by Gustavo Collantes, Washington State Department of Commerce and David Boyle, Washington State Department of Enterprise Services
Nissan Sentra
Chevy Malibu
Impala
Chevy Sonic
Ford Focus
Fusion Hybrid
Civic Hybrid
Insight
Prius
ICE
ICE
ICE
ICE
ICE
HEV
HEV
HEV
HEV
Platform
Leaf (low EVSE Leaf (high EVSE Leaf (with tax cost) cost) incentive) EV
Contract Purchase Price $
17,670 $
16,800 $
18,144 $
15,468 $
16,345 $
26,346 $
23,988 $
20,688 $
22,403 $
Tax $
1,502 $
1,378 $
1,615 $
1,377 $
1,340 $
2,160 $
2,351 $
2,027 $
1,815 $
30
26
22
28
31
39
44
42
50
2012 MPG Miles/KWh
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
EV
34,940 $ -
34,940 $
$
N/A
N/A
EV
-
$
N/A 3.040
Volt
Escape 4 Cyl, FWD
EV
ICE
34,940 $
37,800 $
16,585
(7,500) $
3,100 $
1,360
N/A 3.040
37 3.040
2.200
23 N/A
Gas (2010 Average) $
9,900 $
11,423 $
13,500 $
10,607 $
9,581 $
8,758 $
7,763 $
8,132 $
6,831 $
-
$
-
$
-
$
3,692 $
14,850
Gas (2/12 Price) $
13,667 $
15,769 $
18,636 $
14,643 $
13,226 $
12,090 $
10,716 $
11,226 $
9,430 $
-
$
-
$
-
$
5,097 $
20,500
Gas (Future Price) $
14,167 $
16,346 $
19,318 $
15,179 $
13,710 $
12,532 $
11,108 $
11,637 $
9,775 $
-
$
-
$
-
Electricity $
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
5,284 $
21,250
$
3,405 $
3,405 $
3,405 $
2,823 $
-
Maintenance Est. (per mile) $
0.055 $
0.060 $
0.065 $
0.055 $
0.055 $
0.045 $
0.050 $
0.050 $
0.050 $
0.040 $
0.040 $
0.040 $
0.045 $
0.055
Maintenance $
5,500 $
6,000 $
6,500 $
5,500 $
5,500 $
5,175 $
5,750 $
5,750 $
5,750 $
4,600 $
4,600 $
4,600 $
5,175 $
6,325
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
3,534 $
3,360 $
3,629 $
3,094 $
3,269 $
6,587 $
5,997 $
5,172 $
5,601 $
8,735 $
8,735 $
8,735 $
9,450 $
Residual value as % of new Resale (Return) $ Charging Infrastructure $
-
$
1,500 $
6,000 $
1,500 $
1,500 $
-
1,409 $
1,336 $
1,452 $
1,238 $
1,300 $
2,095 $
1,936 $
1,669 $
1,780 $
2,568 $
2,568 $
2,017 $
3,006 $
1,319
Total, w/2010 fuel prices $
32,447 $
33,577 $
37,582 $
31,096 $
30,797 $
37,947 $
35,790 $
33,095 $
32,978 $
38,277 $
42,777 $
30,226 $
47,645 $
36,292
Order
0.324 $ 8
Total, w/current fuel prices $
Future cost per mile $ Order
37,923 $
0.287 $ 2
36,189 $
0.312 $ 2
0.372 $ 11
0.365 10
49,237 $
0.263 $ 1
41,942
0.427 $ 15
30,226 $
0.316 7
49,050 $
0.263 $ 1
42,777 $
0.333 $ 4
0.414 $ 16
30,226 $
0.372 $ 11
38,277 $
0.263 $ 1
42,777 $
0.333 $ 4
35,922 $
0.318 $ 3
0.372 $ 13
38,277 $
0.309 $ 2
36,600 $
0.340 $
0.333 $ 10
35,577 $
0.315 $ 3
39,135 $
5
-
0.288 $
0.337 $ 5
0.363 $
$
3
38,743 $
41,722 $
8
-
0.311 $
0.359 $ 8
0.349 $
$
6
41,280 $
34,926 $
6
-
0.330 $
0.344 $ 6
0.357 $ 7
$
9
34,442 $
35,668 $
0.434 $
-
0.308 $
0.351 $ 7
43,400 $
$
4
35,132 $
0.427 $
16
-
0.311 $
42,718 $
0.385 $ 12
$
5
16
38,500 $
-
0.376 $
0.379 $
0.367 $ 9
$
14
12
36,714 $
-
0.336 $
0.362 $ 9
Total, w/future fuel prices $
$
11
36,214 $
Current cost per mile $ Order
-
4,146
Financing Costs (Calculated) $
2010 fuel cost per mile $
$
25%
42,692
0.428 $ 13
0.371 10
Tailpipe carbon emissions [lbs/mile]
0.67
Total tailpipe carbon emissions [lbs]
0.77
66,667
Lifecycle carbon emissions [lbs]
76,923
? 667
Order
0.71
90,909
?
Tailpipe carbon emissions cost {$} Cost per mile including carbon [$/mile]
0.91
?
0.65
71,429 ?
769
909
0.51
64,516 ?
714
0.45
58,974 ?
645
0.48
52,273 ?
590
0.40
54,762
0.00
46,000
?
?
523
548
0.00
0.00
0.54
-
-
-
9,299.16
9,299.16
9,299.16
-
-
-
460
0.87
62,162 ?
100,000 ?
622
1,000
0.369
0.387
0.436
0.358
0.351
0.364
0.341
0.319
0.313
0.333
0.372
0.263
0.432
0.373
9
12
16
7
6
8
5
3
2
4
10
1
15
11
Gasoline prices [$/gal]
Assumptions
Low (assumed equal to 2010 WA average)
$
2.97 Future
Current (WA Average)
$
4.10 $
Break even cost Prius and Leaf
$
5.27
EPA ICE fuel economy estimates assume 100% gasoline, i.e. no ethanol blend 4.25
Leaf "fuel" economy estimated as EPA estimated range over battery capacity (73 miles/24kWh) State agencies will not qualify for the tax credit for EV's
Cost of Electricity [$/kWh]
Current DES Office of State Procurement contract pricing used
2010 WA average, residential
$
0.09
80% of maintenance costs for Prius assumed for Leaf
2010 WA average, commercial
$
0.08
Financing assumed at 7 yrs, 1.92% (http://www.tre.wa.gov/documents/lp_IntRatesEquip.pdf)
Useful life [miles] Gasoline ICE
100,000
Gasoline HEV and SUV's
115,000
Carbon emissions estimates
Electric
115,000
WA 2008 power generation WA 2008 CO2 emissions from electricity
Tax incentive needed for Leaf to breakeven w/Prius (current fuel prices)
$
2,701
Tax incentive needed for Volt to breakeven w/Prius (current fuel prices)
$
13,474
2008 WA power carbon intensity
Fuel CO2 price (hypothetical) Financing assumptions Years
7
Interest Rate
1.92%
110,828,451 13,622
MWh Thousand metric tons
0.00012
Metric ton/kWh
0.24582
Pounds/kWh
20
$/ton
0.01
$/lbs
Escape V6 (FFV), 4WD
Escape Hybrid 4WD
ICE
HEV
$
20,443 $
29,400
$
1,676 $
2,411
21
29
N/A
N/A
$
16,264 $
11,778
$
22,452 $
16,259
$
23,274 $
16,853
$
-
$
-
$
0.065 $
0.050
$
7,475 $
5,750
25% $
25%
5,111 $
$
-
7,350
$
-
$
1,626 $
2,338
$
42,373 $
44,326
$
0.368 $ 12
$
48,562 $
$
48,807
0.422 $ 13
$
0.385 15
49,383 $
$
0.424 14
49,402
0.429 $ 14
0.430 15
0.95 109,524 ?
0.69 79,310 ?
1,095
793
0.432
0.431
14
13
Nissan Sentra
Chevy Malibu
Impala
Chevy Sonic
Ford Focus
Fusion Hybrid
Civic Hybrid
Insight
Prius
ICE
ICE
ICE
ICE
ICE
HEV
HEV
HEV
HEV
Platform
Leaf (low EVSE Leaf (high EVSE Leaf (with tax cost) cost) incentive) EV
Contract Purchase Price $
17,670 $
16,800 $
18,144 $
15,468 $
16,345 $
26,346 $
23,988 $
20,688 $
22,403 $
Tax $
1,502 $
1,378 $
1,615 $
1,377 $
1,340 $
2,160 $
2,351 $
2,027 $
1,815 $
30
26
22
28
31
39
44
42
50
2012 MPG Miles/KWh
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
EV
34,940 $ -
34,940 $
$
N/A
N/A
EV
-
$
N/A 3.040
Volt
Escape 4 Cyl, FWD
EV
ICE
34,940 $
37,800 $
16,585
(7,500) $
3,100 $
1,360
N/A 3.040
37 3.040
2.200
23 N/A
Gas (2010 Average) $
9,900 $
11,423 $
13,500 $
10,607 $
9,581 $
8,758 $
7,763 $
8,132 $
6,831 $
-
$
-
$
-
$
3,692 $
14,850
Gas (2/12 Price) $
13,667 $
15,769 $
18,636 $
14,643 $
13,226 $
12,090 $
10,716 $
11,226 $
9,430 $
-
$
-
$
-
$
5,097 $
20,500
Gas (Future Price) $
14,167 $
16,346 $
19,318 $
15,179 $
13,710 $
12,532 $
11,108 $
11,637 $
9,775 $
-
$
-
$
-
Electricity $
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
-
$
5,284 $
21,250
$
3,405 $
3,405 $
3,405 $
2,823 $
-
Maintenance Est. (per mile) $
0.055 $
0.060 $
0.065 $
0.055 $
0.055 $
0.045 $
0.050 $
0.050 $
0.050 $
0.040 $
0.040 $
0.040 $
0.045 $
0.055
Maintenance $
5,500 $
6,000 $
6,500 $
5,500 $
5,500 $
5,175 $
5,750 $
5,750 $
5,750 $
4,600 $
4,600 $
4,600 $
5,175 $
6,325
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
3,534 $
3,360 $
3,629 $
3,094 $
3,269 $
6,587 $
5,997 $
5,172 $
5,601 $
8,735 $
8,735 $
8,735 $
9,450 $
Residual value as % of new Resale (Return) $ Charging Infrastructure $
-
$
1,500 $
6,000 $
1,500 $
1,500 $
-
1,409 $
1,336 $
1,452 $
1,238 $
1,300 $
2,095 $
1,936 $
1,669 $
1,780 $
2,568 $
2,568 $
2,017 $
3,006 $
1,319
Total, w/2010 fuel prices $
32,447 $
33,577 $
37,582 $
31,096 $
30,797 $
37,947 $
35,790 $
33,095 $
32,978 $
38,277 $
42,777 $
30,226 $
47,645 $
36,292
Order
0.324 $ 8
Total, w/current fuel prices $
Future cost per mile $ Order
37,923 $
0.287 $ 2
36,189 $
0.312 $ 2
0.372 $ 11
0.365 10
49,237 $
0.263 $ 1
41,942
0.427 $ 15
30,226 $
0.316 7
49,050 $
0.263 $ 1
42,777 $
0.333 $ 4
0.414 $ 16
30,226 $
0.372 $ 11
38,277 $
0.263 $ 1
42,777 $
0.333 $ 4
35,922 $
0.318 $ 3
0.372 $ 13
38,277 $
0.309 $ 2
36,600 $
0.340 $
0.333 $ 10
35,577 $
0.315 $ 3
39,135 $
5
-
0.288 $
0.337 $ 5
0.363 $
$
3
38,743 $
41,722 $
8
-
0.311 $
0.359 $ 8
0.349 $
$
6
41,280 $
34,926 $
6
-
0.330 $
0.344 $ 6
0.357 $ 7
$
9
34,442 $
35,668 $
0.434 $
-
0.308 $
0.351 $ 7
43,400 $
$
4
35,132 $
0.427 $
16
-
0.311 $
42,718 $
0.385 $ 12
$
5
16
38,500 $
-
0.376 $
0.379 $
0.367 $ 9
$
14
12
36,714 $
-
0.336 $
0.362 $ 9
Total, w/future fuel prices $
$
11
36,214 $
Current cost per mile $ Order
-
4,146
Financing Costs (Calculated) $
2010 fuel cost per mile $
$
25%
42,692
0.428 $ 13
0.371 10
Tailpipe carbon emissions [lbs/mile]
0.67
Total tailpipe carbon emissions [lbs]
0.77
66,667
Lifecycle carbon emissions [lbs]
76,923
? 667
Order
0.71
90,909
?
Tailpipe carbon emissions cost {$} Cost per mile including carbon [$/mile]
0.91
?
0.65
71,429 ?
769
909
0.51
64,516 ?
714
0.45
58,974 ?
645
0.48
52,273 ?
590
0.40
54,762
0.00
46,000
?
?
523
548
0.00
0.00
0.54
-
-
-
9,299.16
9,299.16
9,299.16
-
-
-
460
0.87
62,162 ?
100,000 ?
622
1,000
0.369
0.387
0.436
0.358
0.351
0.364
0.341
0.319
0.313
0.333
0.372
0.263
0.432
0.373
9
12
16
7
6
8
5
3
2
4
10
1
15
11
Gasoline prices [$/gal]
Assumptions
Low (assumed equal to 2010 WA average)
$
2.97 Future
Current (WA Average)
$
4.10 $
Break even cost Prius and Leaf
$
5.27
EPA ICE fuel economy estimates assume 100% gasoline, i.e. no ethanol blend 4.25
Leaf "fuel" economy estimated as EPA estimated range over battery capacity (73 miles/24kWh) State agencies will not qualify for the tax credit for EV's
Cost of Electricity [$/kWh]
Current DES Office of State Procurement contract pricing used
2010 WA average, residential
$
0.09
80% of maintenance costs for Prius assumed for Leaf
2010 WA average, commercial
$
0.08
Financing assumed at 7 yrs, 1.92% (http://www.tre.wa.gov/documents/lp_IntRatesEquip.pdf)
Useful life [miles] Gasoline ICE
100,000
Gasoline HEV and SUV's
115,000
Carbon emissions estimates
Electric
115,000
WA 2008 power generation WA 2008 CO2 emissions from electricity
Tax incentive needed for Leaf to breakeven w/Prius (current fuel prices)
$
2,701
Tax incentive needed for Volt to breakeven w/Prius (current fuel prices)
$
13,474
2008 WA power carbon intensity
Fuel CO2 price (hypothetical) Financing assumptions Years
7
Interest Rate
1.92%
110,828,451 13,622
MWh Thousand metric tons
0.00012
Metric ton/kWh
0.24582
Pounds/kWh
20
$/ton
0.01
$/lbs
Escape V6 (FFV), 4WD
Escape Hybrid 4WD
ICE
HEV
$
20,443 $
29,400
$
1,676 $
2,411
21
29
N/A
N/A
$
16,264 $
11,778
$
22,452 $
16,259
$
23,274 $
16,853
$
-
$
-
$
0.065 $
0.050
$
7,475 $
5,750
25% $
25%
5,111 $
$
-
7,350
$
-
$
1,626 $
2,338
$
42,373 $
44,326
$
0.368 $ 12
$
48,562 $
$
48,807
0.422 $ 13
$
0.385 15
49,383 $
$
0.424 14
49,402
0.429 $ 14
0.430 15
0.95 109,524 ?
0.69 79,310 ?
1,095
793
0.432
0.431
14
13
