Making the future happen
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Agenda for today
Welcome by Mrs. Manon Janssen, CEO Ecofys
Introduction by Ecofys
Presentation by Mr. Tijs Breukink, Member of Executive Board, Wageningen UR
Presentation by Mrs. Anne Bliek-de Jong, Deputy Queen Commissioner, Province of Flevoland
Official opening Test Site Lelystad
Drinks
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Did you know that… … over 95% of the useful energy content of fossil fuels is wasted … in just one hour, the sun provides us with more energy than the world consumes in an entire year … if action is not taken to curb global carbon emissions, climate change could cost up to 20 % of the annual global GDP …. renewable energy sources provide 20 % of the world’s total energy supply already today
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Ecofys mission, vision and values Mission Sustainable energy for everyone
Vision We are a leading knowledge company that creates sustainable energy solutions that impact people’s everyday environment. With our deep knowhow of energy-efficiency, renewable energy and climate change we develop smart policies and concepts and bring them to life. We know that, if we act now, the 2050’s global energy system can be sustainable, secure, affordable and fully based on renewable sources. Together with our ambitious clients we are committed to achieve our mission.
Values
Dedicated
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Original
Impact
Trust
Now, what’s the issue?
a. growing demand for energy From 2010 to 2050:
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Population
10
GDP
120
8 6
80
4
40
2 0
0 2000
4
160
2020
GDP (tn EUR) .
Population (bn)
14
2040
Population +33% World economy (GDP): +200% Demand for energy services (industry, buildings, transportation) roughly in line with GDP growth
What’s the issue?
b. fossil fuel supplies tight
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010
⇒ Strong price increases to be expected 5
What’s the issue?
c. CO2-emissions must be reduced Scenarios that give the world a chance to stay below 2°C have: • Emissions peak before 2020 • Emissions 60-70% lower than now by 2050
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So, what’s the solution?
a. strong energy efficiency to reduce energy use … 400
Source: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010
Other
350
Final energy (EJ/a)
300 250
Industry
200 150
Buildings
100 50
Transport
Source: Ecofys
0 2000
7
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
What’s the solution?
b. … plus strong ramp-up of renewable energy sources 400
Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011
Bio: Algae
350
Bio: Crops Bio: Comp.Fell.*
300 Final energy (EJ/a)
Non-renewable
Bio: Traditional Bio: Res.&Waste
250
Geo: Heat Solar thermal
200
Conc.Sol.:Heat
150
Hydropower
100
Conc.Sol.:Power
Geo: Electricity Photovoltaic solar Wave & Tidal
50
Wind: Off-shore
0 2000 8
Wind: On-shore
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
So, what’s the solution?
c. electrification is key to high share of renewables 400
Source: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2011
350 Heat and Fuels
Final energy (EJ/a)
300 250 200 150 100
Electricity
50 0 2000
9
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Wind energy can play a big role … Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011
Global deployment potential of wind power
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… in a mix of options Renewable electricity abundant: options will compete against each other well before 2050 Supply-driven renewable sources have grid limitations Other sources will provide demand-driven electricity 140
Oth(N): Nuclear Electricity Oth(O): Electricity Oil
Final energy (EJ/a)
120
Oth(G): Electricity Gas Oth(C): Electricity Coal
100
Bio(C): Electricity Bio: Crops Bio(F): Electricity Bio: Comp.Fellings
80
Bio(R): Electricity Bio: Resid. & Waste Geo: Electricity Geothermal
60 40
Hydro Hydropower CS: CSP Power
20
PV PV Wave & Tidal Tidal Wave &
Source: Ecofys
0 2000
*CSP=Concentrated Solar Power
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2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Wind: Off-shore Wind: Off-shore Wind: On-shore Wind: On-shore
Electricity
Enormous growth required Wind now (end-2010): Global capacity 194,400 MW, up 22 % from year ago Estimated production 400 billion kWh, 2% of total
Wind 2050 (The Energy Report) Global capacity 3,600,000 MW, a factor of 18 ! Production 9,000 billion kWh, 25 % of total
Source 2010 capacity: GWEC
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The wind energy sector Annual wind capacity Expected installed Ideal location of offshore the Netherlands in Europe [MW]capacity in the Europe [MW] among most important EWEA reference scenario offshore wind countries Expected commissioning before 2015 74,500
35,000
12,000 1,100 2007
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3,500 2010
2015
2020
2025
Why are we here To meet a growing demand in wind turbine test sites across Europe and beyond To provide a platform for innovation Larger, more capacity Increased efficiency Reduced sound emission Prolonged operational lifetime
To deliver top quality measurement services required for research and accreditation
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Test Site Lelystad
Participants:
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11 - 12
Zeshoek
What do we do Management services Site management and coordination Success roads and health & safety coordination Data infrastructure, quality and reporting
Measurement services Site assessment Meteorological mast Power performance & quality Mechanical loads Sound emission Grid code certification 16
Thank you, for making this possible Wageningen UR, Mr. Tijs Breukink Eneco: Mr. Jeroen de Haas City of Lelystad: Mrs. Margreet Horselenberg Province of Flevoland: Mrs. Anne Bliek-de Jong windtest grevenbroich gmbh: Mrs. Monika Krämer
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