Making them work for you
8/5/2015
17th Annual GPA Conference St. Louis, Missouri November 11-14, 2015
STATISTICS Making Them Work for You Rebecca Vermillion Shawver, MPA, GPC Director, Grant Administration Brazosport College 500 College Drive Lake Jackson, Texas 77566 Phone: 979.230.3313 Email: [email protected]
“The reality is that you can lie with statistics. Or you can make inadvertent errors. In either case, the mathematical precision attached to statistical analysis can dress up some serious nonsense.” Charles Wheelan, Author naked statistics – Stripping the Dread from the Data W.W. Norton & Company, 2013
Why should grant writers learn about statistics? To optimally document need To predict future outcomes To evaluate the effectiveness of specific strategies & programs To help college administrators make better decisions
1
8/5/2015
What is a mean? An average of more than one data set
What is a median? The middle number in a sequence of figures (aka midpoint)
Median versus Mean
There are 11 full-time fund raisers in a community. Their average annual salary is $72,295 with combined earnings of $795,250. However, two of the fund raisers work for very large national nonprofits and earned $200,000 and $165,000 respectively. Thus median annual salary is only $45,000 because the vast majority of the fund raisers make far less than the top two individuals. Median Calculation $45,000
$38,000
$39,200
$39,550
$41,750
$44,250
$45,000
$53,000
$64,500
$65,000
$165,000
$200,00
Mean Calculation $795,250 / 11 fund raisers = $72,295
Definitions What is median household income? Income of householder and all other individuals 15 years old and over in the household Don’t have to be related Divides the income distribution into two equal parts (middle point)
What is per capita income? The mean (average) money income received in the past 12 months computed for every man, woman, and child in a geographic area. Divides total income of all people 15 years old and over in a geographic area by the total population in that area
2
8/5/2015
US Census Data Brazoria County Texas $68,008 $51,563 Median household income Per capita income $29,042 $25,809 Persons per household 2.85 2.8 US Census, 2008-2012
USA $53,046 $28,051 2.61
An estimated mean household income can be calculated from available data: Per capita income times # persons/hshld = estimated mean income. Brazoria County formula: ($29.042) x (2.85 persons) = $82,770 Brazoria County median household income is $68,008 Brazoria County mean household income is $82,770
Typically, it is best to use your area’s median income to document poverty.
Measuring Change as a Percentage Gives Meaning to the Numbers RAW Numbers 125 students failed developmental math 125 students of how many? 130? 300?
Percentages 96.2% (125) of the 130 students failed 41.6% (125) of the 300 students failed
What is a standard deviation? A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion from the average
So what does it really mean? • A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the average. • A high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values. • 68% of all results should fall within 1 standard deviation • 95% of all results should fall within 2 standard deviations Source: Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation.
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8/5/2015
EXAMPLE At 41 weeks gestation, the average birth weight of a baby is 7.83 pounds with a standard deviation of 1.08 pounds.
That means that a baby weighing between 6.75 and 8.91 pounds is not considered abnormally small or large at birth.
Warning! Analyze data with an awareness of what you expect the data to document.
SURPRISES - If the data shows that an abnormally high number of clients are failing to successfully complete an outcome, you should go back and recheck the data to make certain that you analyzed the relevant figures. WHO & WHAT - Be mindful of what descriptors are being analyzed – the who and what. Is it different from the who and what being requested/described in the RFP?
Listen to Your Gut Instincts Use common sense. If your gut tells you the data is wrong, it probably is – so check it.
4
8/5/2015
Let’s Take a Closer Look Of the 300 minority students enrolled in developmental MA0408 courses in AY 2012/13, 41.6% (125) of them failed. However, an additional 56 (18.7%) dropped their class. Therefore, lack of math proficiency actually resulted in 181 (60.3%) minority students failing to transition into college level math courses required for graduation. Only 119 (39.7%) of the minority students transitioned into the college level MA1214 .
Points to Remember when Creating Data Tables
Clearly label each table List data in a logical order Use space effectively
Use bold type face to highlight important figures Use black, grey, and white only
Hands-On Handouts Time to review real life examples of what to do and what not to do!
5
8/5/2015
“It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s hard to tell the truth without them.” Andrejs Dunkels Swedish mathematician and writer
Presenter Information
Rebecca Vermillion Shawver, MPA, GPC Director, Grant Administration Brazosport College [email protected] Office Phone: 979.230.3313 Cell Phone: 317.409.0910
All rights to presentation materials and handouts are reserved by the author.
6
17th Annual GPA Conference St. Louis, Missouri November 11-14, 2015
STATISTICS Making Them Work for You Rebecca Vermillion Shawver, MPA, GPC Director, Grant Administration Brazosport College 500 College Drive Lake Jackson, Texas 77566 Phone: 979.230.3313 Email: [email protected]
“The reality is that you can lie with statistics. Or you can make inadvertent errors. In either case, the mathematical precision attached to statistical analysis can dress up some serious nonsense.” Charles Wheelan, Author naked statistics – Stripping the Dread from the Data W.W. Norton & Company, 2013
Why should grant writers learn about statistics? To optimally document need To predict future outcomes To evaluate the effectiveness of specific strategies & programs To help college administrators make better decisions
1
8/5/2015
What is a mean? An average of more than one data set
What is a median? The middle number in a sequence of figures (aka midpoint)
Median versus Mean
There are 11 full-time fund raisers in a community. Their average annual salary is $72,295 with combined earnings of $795,250. However, two of the fund raisers work for very large national nonprofits and earned $200,000 and $165,000 respectively. Thus median annual salary is only $45,000 because the vast majority of the fund raisers make far less than the top two individuals. Median Calculation $45,000
$38,000
$39,200
$39,550
$41,750
$44,250
$45,000
$53,000
$64,500
$65,000
$165,000
$200,00
Mean Calculation $795,250 / 11 fund raisers = $72,295
Definitions What is median household income? Income of householder and all other individuals 15 years old and over in the household Don’t have to be related Divides the income distribution into two equal parts (middle point)
What is per capita income? The mean (average) money income received in the past 12 months computed for every man, woman, and child in a geographic area. Divides total income of all people 15 years old and over in a geographic area by the total population in that area
2
8/5/2015
US Census Data Brazoria County Texas $68,008 $51,563 Median household income Per capita income $29,042 $25,809 Persons per household 2.85 2.8 US Census, 2008-2012
USA $53,046 $28,051 2.61
An estimated mean household income can be calculated from available data: Per capita income times # persons/hshld = estimated mean income. Brazoria County formula: ($29.042) x (2.85 persons) = $82,770 Brazoria County median household income is $68,008 Brazoria County mean household income is $82,770
Typically, it is best to use your area’s median income to document poverty.
Measuring Change as a Percentage Gives Meaning to the Numbers RAW Numbers 125 students failed developmental math 125 students of how many? 130? 300?
Percentages 96.2% (125) of the 130 students failed 41.6% (125) of the 300 students failed
What is a standard deviation? A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion from the average
So what does it really mean? • A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the average. • A high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values. • 68% of all results should fall within 1 standard deviation • 95% of all results should fall within 2 standard deviations Source: Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation.
3
8/5/2015
EXAMPLE At 41 weeks gestation, the average birth weight of a baby is 7.83 pounds with a standard deviation of 1.08 pounds.
That means that a baby weighing between 6.75 and 8.91 pounds is not considered abnormally small or large at birth.
Warning! Analyze data with an awareness of what you expect the data to document.
SURPRISES - If the data shows that an abnormally high number of clients are failing to successfully complete an outcome, you should go back and recheck the data to make certain that you analyzed the relevant figures. WHO & WHAT - Be mindful of what descriptors are being analyzed – the who and what. Is it different from the who and what being requested/described in the RFP?
Listen to Your Gut Instincts Use common sense. If your gut tells you the data is wrong, it probably is – so check it.
4
8/5/2015
Let’s Take a Closer Look Of the 300 minority students enrolled in developmental MA0408 courses in AY 2012/13, 41.6% (125) of them failed. However, an additional 56 (18.7%) dropped their class. Therefore, lack of math proficiency actually resulted in 181 (60.3%) minority students failing to transition into college level math courses required for graduation. Only 119 (39.7%) of the minority students transitioned into the college level MA1214 .
Points to Remember when Creating Data Tables
Clearly label each table List data in a logical order Use space effectively
Use bold type face to highlight important figures Use black, grey, and white only
Hands-On Handouts Time to review real life examples of what to do and what not to do!
5
8/5/2015
“It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s hard to tell the truth without them.” Andrejs Dunkels Swedish mathematician and writer
Presenter Information
Rebecca Vermillion Shawver, MPA, GPC Director, Grant Administration Brazosport College [email protected] Office Phone: 979.230.3313 Cell Phone: 317.409.0910
All rights to presentation materials and handouts are reserved by the author.
6
