Minerals in the 21 Century
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Azurite & Malachite, Ely, NV (J. Scovil photo)
Round Mountain, NV (2007)
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Iron
~14X more production than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand is growing partly because world population is increasing, and partly because standards of living (measured by per capita consumption) are increasing.
Iron ~4X more population than 100 years ago
~14X more production than 100 years ago
~4X more per capita consumption than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Copper ~22X more production than 100 years ago
~6X more per capita consumption than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Gold ~same per capita consumption as 100 years ago ~4X more production than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Coal 80% higher production than 28 years ago 51% higher population than 28 years ago
19% higher per capita consumption than 28 years ago
Production statistics mostly from DOE/EIA
Slide courtesy of Scott Tinker, Texas Bureau of Economic Geology
World (marketed) energy use, by fuel type
Source: Energy Information Agency (2008)
U.S. energy use, by fuel type
Source: Energy Information Agency (2008)
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
China has been #1 in iron-ore production since 1992.
Iron
USA
CHINA USSR/RUSSIA Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
India is also emerging as an economic superpower, but not at the scale of China.
Iron
USA
CHINA
Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
INDIA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Much of the increase in iron-ore production in Australia and Brazil is also supplying the demand from China.
Iron
USA
CHINA
Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
BRAZIL AUSTRALIA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Although US consumption of iron ore approximately equals domestic production, iron ore from the US (Iron Mountain, Utah) will be shipped to China for steel production.
Iron
USA
CHINA
BRAZIL AUSTRALIA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Iron-ore production reflects historical events.
Iron
Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
WW II Great Depression
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
China has been #1 in coal production since 1985. Percentage of Annual Coal Production by Country, 1930-2008
CHINA
Coal USA
Production statistics mostly from DOE/EIA For 2008, world coal figures estimated to rise at the same percentage as China.
US coal production has increased in recent years, but China’s coal production has increased at a faster pace.
Coal
Annual Coal Production by Country, in millions of short tons, 1930-2008
CHINA
USA
Production statistics mostly from DOE/EIA For 2008, world coal figures estimated to rise at the same percentage as China.
China became #1 in gold production in 2007 and extended its lead in 2008.
Gold
SOUTH AFRICA
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
USA CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa’s production peaked at 1,000 metric tons of gold in 1970. USA CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
The South African mines on the Witwatersrand are getting deeper and more costly than before. Sample from the MackayStanford Ore Deposits Collection
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold
SOUTH AFRICA
China’s production peaked at ~295 metric tons of gold in 2008. USA CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold
Gold production from other countries peaked before last year.
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold Country Peak Year Tons South Africa 1970 1,000 USA 1998 366 Australia 1997 314 USSR 1956-59 311 China 2008 295 Peru 2005 208 Canada 1991 177 WORLD 2000 2,600
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Of 22 key mineral commodities in 2008, China is a significant producer (with >10% of world supply) of 16.
Commodity Aluminum Ore Manganese Rare Earths Barite Tin Tungsten Zinc Silver Gypsum Cement Phosphate Rock Iron Ore Gold Industrial Sand Molybdenum Diatomite Beryllium
% from China 16 20 97 57 45 75 28 12 27 50 30 35 13 ~0 28 22 11
% from US 0 0 0 8 0 10% of world supply) of 16, and the USA is a significant producer of six.
Commodity Aluminum Ore Manganese Rare Earths Barite Tin Tungsten Zinc Silver Gypsum Cement Phosphate Rock Iron Ore Gold Industrial Sand Molybdenum Diatomite Beryllium
% from China 16 20 97 57 45 75 28 12 27 50 30 35 13 ~0 28 22 11
% from US 0 0 0 8 0 10% of world supply) of 16, the USA is a significant producer of six, and neither country produces more than 10% of the world supply of five.
Commodity Platinum Potash Chromium Copper Nickel
% from China 0 6 0 6 5
For example, the leading producers of nickel are Russia (17% of 2008 mine production), Canada (16%), Indonesia (13%), and Australia (11%).
Mount Keith Ni mine, Western Australia: 323 million metric tons @ 0.56% Ni
% from US 2 3 ~2 8 0
Leading Producer South Africa Canada South Africa Chile Russia
Spinifex texture in serpentinite, Honeymoon Well nickel deposit, Western Australia - indicator of bladed crystals of olivine, from quenching of an ultramafic lava flow
2008 production statistics from USGS
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
China is not a major producer of copper. Copper
CHILE USA
Percentage of Annual Copper Production by Country, 1930-2008
CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
China is securing copper elsewhere. Copper Percentage of Annual Copper Production by Country, 1930-2008
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
China is securing copper elsewhere, particularly in South America and Africa. Copper Percentage of Annual Copper Production by Country, 1930-2008
CHILE USA
ZAMBIA
PERU CHINA Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
If resources continue to be major factors in global conflict, either militarily or economically, expect China and those countries that are endowed with resources to be major players (either aggressors or targets of aggression).
XX XX
X X XX XX XX
XX X X XX
X
XX XX
Watch for conflicts to arise in the regions of resource-rich Precambrian shields, which are major sources of iron, manganese, nickel, chromium, titanium, copper, cobalt, zinc, gold, and uranium. This includes parts of Africa, Australia, South America (particularly Brazil and Venezuela), Russia, and Canada.
X X
X X X X
X
XX XX
XXXX
X
X
Also watch for conflicts in the resource-rich current and past continental and islandarc settings that are major sources of copper, molybdenum, tungsten, gold, and silver. This includes the Pacific Rim of Fire, particularly the Cordillera of South and North America, Mongolia, and several other locations.
XX
X X XX X X X X X XXX X XX X X X X X X X X X X XX XX XX X
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Banded iron formation, South Africa
Annual global iron-ore production reached an all-time high of 2.2 billion metric tons in 2008. That equals approximately 0.4 km3 of ore, or at least 1 km3 of ore plus overburden and waste rock – one huge mine, per year.
Photo copyrighted by Michael Collier, from the AGI website, Rio Tinto/Kennecott Utah Copper mine; the remaining resource as of 16 May 2008 = 3.06 million metric tons of Cu
Global copper production in 2008 (15.7 million metric tons) nearly equaled over 100 years of production from the Bingham Canyon mine (16.4 million metric tons).
Barrick’s Betze pit, 2000
Newmont’s Carlin East pit and portal, 2000
Global gold production in 2008 (2,330 metric tons) approximately equaled the cumulative production from the Carlin trend (2,200 tons), one of world’s top regions.
The current boom (1981-2007) = 210M oz Au (mostly Carlin and other Nevada deposits = 146M oz) Goldfield (NV), Black Hills (SD), Cripple Creek (CO), porphyry Cu (AZ &UT) = 95M oz Au
’49ers = 29M oz Au
We are in the midst of the biggest gold-mining boom ever.
The World Has Changed For industry, the changes in the world are creating opportunities for: exploration (domestically and worldwide, particularly in areas with potential for large deposits), development and production (including new technologies for extracting metals from known deposits), and sustainability (including the future of the environment, local and national economies, social and governmental stability, recycling, and substitutions of other minerals and products). Round Mountain, NV (2007)
The World Has Changed For geological surveys and academia, the changes in the world are creating opportunities for: geologic mapping and interpretation of the 4D geologic framework,
geoscience sample and data preservation, and states and universities to work with the federal government on mineral-resource research, information, and policy.
Round Mountain, NV (2007)
There is a renewed interest in exploration for nearly every mineral commodity in the US. This translates to a renewed demand for geologic maps and 4D geologic framework – the hallmark of state, provincial, and national geological surveys.
New deposit types are still being found – e.g., Carlin gold (1961), Olympic Dam copper-iron-gold, South Australia (1975), HREE in kaolinite-rich laterite developed on granites in China (2000s) – and will be found in the future. We need to be thinking about ore-forming systems and future resources – USGS Professional Paper 820 (1973).
Arrowhead clipart from www.firstpeople.us
Two 2007 NRC reports highlight the issues: “Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the U.S. Economy” and “Managing Materials for the 21st Century Military.”
Arrowhead clipart from www.firstpeople.us
Critical and strategic minerals will change with time. 1) What is the global demand likely to be? 2) What is the US supply likely to be? 3) What are the limits and obstacles to US production? a) land access b) permitting speed 4) What needs to be done to convert marginal resources into reserves? 6) What are the new types of deposits and ore-forming systems of the future?
Tynagh mine, Ireland (in reclamation)
diamond drill core
rotary drill cuttings
Geoscience data preservation (both physical samples from deep drilling, paleontological collections, etc. and electronic copies of paper records) is more important today than ever before.
The National Research Council highlighted the problem in its 2002 report on Geoscience Collections and Data: National Resources in Peril. - available through: http://www.nap.edu/
Core shed at the Greenwood Shaft, Pioche, NV
15 January 2009
GREAT BASIN SCIENCE SAMPLE AND RECORDS LIBRARY GREAT BASIN SCIENCE SAMPLE AND RECORDS LIBRARY Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology University of Nevada, Reno University of Nevada, Reno On the Campus of the Desert Research Institute On the Campus of the Desert Research Institute
Gold on windows – reflects heat but transmits visible light, and therefore saves energy for both heating and air conditioning.
[26 windows x (4 ft x 6 ft)/window + 20 ft x 20 ft for vestibule] x (1 m/3.2808 ft)2 x [1.73 x 10-8 m thick gold coating] x 19.3 metric tons/m3 x 3.21507 x 104 troy ounces/metric ton = 1.02 troy ounces of gold on these windows.
15 January 2009
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Thank you!
Azurite & Malachite, Ely, NV (J. Scovil photo)
Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Azurite & Malachite, Ely, NV (J. Scovil photo)
Round Mountain, NV (2007)
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Iron
~14X more production than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand is growing partly because world population is increasing, and partly because standards of living (measured by per capita consumption) are increasing.
Iron ~4X more population than 100 years ago
~14X more production than 100 years ago
~4X more per capita consumption than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Copper ~22X more production than 100 years ago
~6X more per capita consumption than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Gold ~same per capita consumption as 100 years ago ~4X more production than 100 years ago
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Demand for nearly every mineral (and energy) commodity is high.
Coal 80% higher production than 28 years ago 51% higher population than 28 years ago
19% higher per capita consumption than 28 years ago
Production statistics mostly from DOE/EIA
Slide courtesy of Scott Tinker, Texas Bureau of Economic Geology
World (marketed) energy use, by fuel type
Source: Energy Information Agency (2008)
U.S. energy use, by fuel type
Source: Energy Information Agency (2008)
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
China has been #1 in iron-ore production since 1992.
Iron
USA
CHINA USSR/RUSSIA Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
India is also emerging as an economic superpower, but not at the scale of China.
Iron
USA
CHINA
Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
INDIA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Much of the increase in iron-ore production in Australia and Brazil is also supplying the demand from China.
Iron
USA
CHINA
Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
BRAZIL AUSTRALIA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Although US consumption of iron ore approximately equals domestic production, iron ore from the US (Iron Mountain, Utah) will be shipped to China for steel production.
Iron
USA
CHINA
BRAZIL AUSTRALIA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Iron-ore production reflects historical events.
Iron
Percentage of Annual Iron-Ore Production by Country, 1930-2008
WW II Great Depression
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
China has been #1 in coal production since 1985. Percentage of Annual Coal Production by Country, 1930-2008
CHINA
Coal USA
Production statistics mostly from DOE/EIA For 2008, world coal figures estimated to rise at the same percentage as China.
US coal production has increased in recent years, but China’s coal production has increased at a faster pace.
Coal
Annual Coal Production by Country, in millions of short tons, 1930-2008
CHINA
USA
Production statistics mostly from DOE/EIA For 2008, world coal figures estimated to rise at the same percentage as China.
China became #1 in gold production in 2007 and extended its lead in 2008.
Gold
SOUTH AFRICA
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
USA CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa’s production peaked at 1,000 metric tons of gold in 1970. USA CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
The South African mines on the Witwatersrand are getting deeper and more costly than before. Sample from the MackayStanford Ore Deposits Collection
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold
SOUTH AFRICA
China’s production peaked at ~295 metric tons of gold in 2008. USA CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold
Gold production from other countries peaked before last year.
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Percentage of Annual Gold Production by Country, 1930-2008
Gold Country Peak Year Tons South Africa 1970 1,000 USA 1998 366 Australia 1997 314 USSR 1956-59 311 China 2008 295 Peru 2005 208 Canada 1991 177 WORLD 2000 2,600
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
Of 22 key mineral commodities in 2008, China is a significant producer (with >10% of world supply) of 16.
Commodity Aluminum Ore Manganese Rare Earths Barite Tin Tungsten Zinc Silver Gypsum Cement Phosphate Rock Iron Ore Gold Industrial Sand Molybdenum Diatomite Beryllium
% from China 16 20 97 57 45 75 28 12 27 50 30 35 13 ~0 28 22 11
% from US 0 0 0 8 0 10% of world supply) of 16, and the USA is a significant producer of six.
Commodity Aluminum Ore Manganese Rare Earths Barite Tin Tungsten Zinc Silver Gypsum Cement Phosphate Rock Iron Ore Gold Industrial Sand Molybdenum Diatomite Beryllium
% from China 16 20 97 57 45 75 28 12 27 50 30 35 13 ~0 28 22 11
% from US 0 0 0 8 0 10% of world supply) of 16, the USA is a significant producer of six, and neither country produces more than 10% of the world supply of five.
Commodity Platinum Potash Chromium Copper Nickel
% from China 0 6 0 6 5
For example, the leading producers of nickel are Russia (17% of 2008 mine production), Canada (16%), Indonesia (13%), and Australia (11%).
Mount Keith Ni mine, Western Australia: 323 million metric tons @ 0.56% Ni
% from US 2 3 ~2 8 0
Leading Producer South Africa Canada South Africa Chile Russia
Spinifex texture in serpentinite, Honeymoon Well nickel deposit, Western Australia - indicator of bladed crystals of olivine, from quenching of an ultramafic lava flow
2008 production statistics from USGS
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
China is not a major producer of copper. Copper
CHILE USA
Percentage of Annual Copper Production by Country, 1930-2008
CHINA
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
China is securing copper elsewhere. Copper Percentage of Annual Copper Production by Country, 1930-2008
Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
China is securing copper elsewhere, particularly in South America and Africa. Copper Percentage of Annual Copper Production by Country, 1930-2008
CHILE USA
ZAMBIA
PERU CHINA Production statistics mostly from USGS/USBM
If resources continue to be major factors in global conflict, either militarily or economically, expect China and those countries that are endowed with resources to be major players (either aggressors or targets of aggression).
XX XX
X X XX XX XX
XX X X XX
X
XX XX
Watch for conflicts to arise in the regions of resource-rich Precambrian shields, which are major sources of iron, manganese, nickel, chromium, titanium, copper, cobalt, zinc, gold, and uranium. This includes parts of Africa, Australia, South America (particularly Brazil and Venezuela), Russia, and Canada.
X X
X X X X
X
XX XX
XXXX
X
X
Also watch for conflicts in the resource-rich current and past continental and islandarc settings that are major sources of copper, molybdenum, tungsten, gold, and silver. This includes the Pacific Rim of Fire, particularly the Cordillera of South and North America, Mongolia, and several other locations.
XX
X X XX X X X X X XXX X XX X X X X X X X X X X XX XX XX X
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Banded iron formation, South Africa
Annual global iron-ore production reached an all-time high of 2.2 billion metric tons in 2008. That equals approximately 0.4 km3 of ore, or at least 1 km3 of ore plus overburden and waste rock – one huge mine, per year.
Photo copyrighted by Michael Collier, from the AGI website, Rio Tinto/Kennecott Utah Copper mine; the remaining resource as of 16 May 2008 = 3.06 million metric tons of Cu
Global copper production in 2008 (15.7 million metric tons) nearly equaled over 100 years of production from the Bingham Canyon mine (16.4 million metric tons).
Barrick’s Betze pit, 2000
Newmont’s Carlin East pit and portal, 2000
Global gold production in 2008 (2,330 metric tons) approximately equaled the cumulative production from the Carlin trend (2,200 tons), one of world’s top regions.
The current boom (1981-2007) = 210M oz Au (mostly Carlin and other Nevada deposits = 146M oz) Goldfield (NV), Black Hills (SD), Cripple Creek (CO), porphyry Cu (AZ &UT) = 95M oz Au
’49ers = 29M oz Au
We are in the midst of the biggest gold-mining boom ever.
The World Has Changed For industry, the changes in the world are creating opportunities for: exploration (domestically and worldwide, particularly in areas with potential for large deposits), development and production (including new technologies for extracting metals from known deposits), and sustainability (including the future of the environment, local and national economies, social and governmental stability, recycling, and substitutions of other minerals and products). Round Mountain, NV (2007)
The World Has Changed For geological surveys and academia, the changes in the world are creating opportunities for: geologic mapping and interpretation of the 4D geologic framework,
geoscience sample and data preservation, and states and universities to work with the federal government on mineral-resource research, information, and policy.
Round Mountain, NV (2007)
There is a renewed interest in exploration for nearly every mineral commodity in the US. This translates to a renewed demand for geologic maps and 4D geologic framework – the hallmark of state, provincial, and national geological surveys.
New deposit types are still being found – e.g., Carlin gold (1961), Olympic Dam copper-iron-gold, South Australia (1975), HREE in kaolinite-rich laterite developed on granites in China (2000s) – and will be found in the future. We need to be thinking about ore-forming systems and future resources – USGS Professional Paper 820 (1973).
Arrowhead clipart from www.firstpeople.us
Two 2007 NRC reports highlight the issues: “Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the U.S. Economy” and “Managing Materials for the 21st Century Military.”
Arrowhead clipart from www.firstpeople.us
Critical and strategic minerals will change with time. 1) What is the global demand likely to be? 2) What is the US supply likely to be? 3) What are the limits and obstacles to US production? a) land access b) permitting speed 4) What needs to be done to convert marginal resources into reserves? 6) What are the new types of deposits and ore-forming systems of the future?
Tynagh mine, Ireland (in reclamation)
diamond drill core
rotary drill cuttings
Geoscience data preservation (both physical samples from deep drilling, paleontological collections, etc. and electronic copies of paper records) is more important today than ever before.
The National Research Council highlighted the problem in its 2002 report on Geoscience Collections and Data: National Resources in Peril. - available through: http://www.nap.edu/
Core shed at the Greenwood Shaft, Pioche, NV
15 January 2009
GREAT BASIN SCIENCE SAMPLE AND RECORDS LIBRARY GREAT BASIN SCIENCE SAMPLE AND RECORDS LIBRARY Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology University of Nevada, Reno University of Nevada, Reno On the Campus of the Desert Research Institute On the Campus of the Desert Research Institute
Gold on windows – reflects heat but transmits visible light, and therefore saves energy for both heating and air conditioning.
[26 windows x (4 ft x 6 ft)/window + 20 ft x 20 ft for vestibule] x (1 m/3.2808 ft)2 x [1.73 x 10-8 m thick gold coating] x 19.3 metric tons/m3 x 3.21507 x 104 troy ounces/metric ton = 1.02 troy ounces of gold on these windows.
15 January 2009
The World Has Changed: Minerals in the 21st Century Jon Price Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
Demand is high. China is #1. Expect conflicts over resources. Change brings opportunities. Round Mountain, NV (2007)
Thank you!
Azurite & Malachite, Ely, NV (J. Scovil photo)
Round Mountain, NV (2007)
