Mississippi Emergency Management Agency
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) Operational Update – 1000 hrs. 08.26.2016 Good morning all, This update is provided to give each of you an idea of where we are today at the SEOC in relation to the Invest 99L storm now located north and east of Cuba. The EOC status is Level 4 (Normal Operations). We currently have an enhanced level of awareness for Invest 99L but do not have plans to change our normal operational schedule or status through Sunday, 28 August, 2016. Be advised however, that this could change at any time based on the development of the storm. Invest 99L is garnering a lot of attention for a storm that hasn’t even reached tropical depression status yet. However, the potential is there for a major development in this storm’s strength. Our colleagues at NWS Mobile sent out a message this morning that pretty much sums up where we are today in regards to Invest 99L. Here is an extract: “The wave (99L) is even less organized this morning compared to yesterday. As a result, the probabilities of it developing into at least a tropical storm now stand at 60% (versus 80% the past few days). *NOTE - the chance of formation is now 20% for the next 48 hours which means the system has an 80% chance of remaining poorly disorganized through Sunday morning - and that is consistent with everything we are seeing here. It now appears eminent we won't know anything about short-term development until the wave enters the southeast Gulf of Mexico - as it is forecast to do. Until that time, you will continue to see the models all over the place and uncertainty is as about as high as I've ever seen (very frustrating I know, but this all stems from there not being a definite center from which the models can better represent the initial time and thus create a much better forecast). So, it is REALLY watch and wait over the weekend due to the 20% chance of development during the next two days. I do want to say one thing. Unlike earlier this week, we are not dealing with a Florida east coast landfall and then a re-emergence into the Gulf of Mexico. Now it appears the wave will enter the Gulf of Mexico without a Florida Peninsula landfall. The vertical wind shear relaxes over the weekend and the water is VERY warm. It is kind like a loaded gun and things can change at the drop of a hat but until we see some evidence of thunderstorms forming near the center it will keep moving westward and would potentially remain poorly defined. So, for that reason, we will just have to endure this period of high uncertainty and be prepared to take action should things rapidly change.”
1
Here at the SEOC, we continue to review the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP), associated Emergency Support Function (ESF) Annexes, and our internal Standard Operating Procedures and Guidelines. We encourage all of our ESF partners to do the same, and we stand by to assist as needed. If you have any informational requirements or requests, feel free to contact me or an Operations Officer here at MEMA at any time. The CEMP and associated Annexes can be located at: http://www.msema.org/emergency-plans/state-cemp/ For real-time updates on the status of Invest 99L, I recommend the National Hurricane Center at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Reminder: If you haven’t exercised your access to WebEOC recently – Please Do So! https://venus.mema.ms.gov/start.html For assistance with WebEOC login/password issues, please contact Tina Reed at: [email protected] In review, we are in a holding pattern watching for what this storm may do. Be advised, although the storm doesn’t show much strength right now, it could rapidly develop once it hits the Gulf of Mexico. If it does, our reaction time could be significantly reduced from what we have on our Hurricane Timeline plan. We currently hope to be able to plan 120+ hours out – this could be significantly reduced down to the 72-96 hour range depending on the severity of the buildup and speed. Therefore, we will keep an eye on this storm and its potential development. More updates to follow as the situation warrants. Thank you! Matthew G.C. Hewings Interim Director, Operations Bureau [email protected] Office: 601-933-6716 Cell: 601-941-7178
Click Logos Below to Stay Connected with Us:
“Preparing for Tomorrow’s Disasters Today”
2
1
Here at the SEOC, we continue to review the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP), associated Emergency Support Function (ESF) Annexes, and our internal Standard Operating Procedures and Guidelines. We encourage all of our ESF partners to do the same, and we stand by to assist as needed. If you have any informational requirements or requests, feel free to contact me or an Operations Officer here at MEMA at any time. The CEMP and associated Annexes can be located at: http://www.msema.org/emergency-plans/state-cemp/ For real-time updates on the status of Invest 99L, I recommend the National Hurricane Center at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Reminder: If you haven’t exercised your access to WebEOC recently – Please Do So! https://venus.mema.ms.gov/start.html For assistance with WebEOC login/password issues, please contact Tina Reed at: [email protected] In review, we are in a holding pattern watching for what this storm may do. Be advised, although the storm doesn’t show much strength right now, it could rapidly develop once it hits the Gulf of Mexico. If it does, our reaction time could be significantly reduced from what we have on our Hurricane Timeline plan. We currently hope to be able to plan 120+ hours out – this could be significantly reduced down to the 72-96 hour range depending on the severity of the buildup and speed. Therefore, we will keep an eye on this storm and its potential development. More updates to follow as the situation warrants. Thank you! Matthew G.C. Hewings Interim Director, Operations Bureau [email protected] Office: 601-933-6716 Cell: 601-941-7178
Click Logos Below to Stay Connected with Us:
“Preparing for Tomorrow’s Disasters Today”
2
