Monthly Report
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 6,934.37 points, a 4.8% decrease MoM compared to September 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 66.58bn. Banks and Basic Materials sectors accounted for 59.9% of the total value traded. Utilities was the only sector to show an increase (1.5% MoM) during October, while REITs and Media were the worst performing sectors showing a decline of 13.2% and 10.9% MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During October
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,300
6.00
7,200
5.00
7,100 4.00
7,000
3.00
6,900 6,800
1-Oct-17
8-Oct-17
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
15-Oct-17
22-Oct-17
2.00
29-Oct-17
Closing Price - LHS
Sectors Performance
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
MoM Performance
Insurance
Real Estate
Utilities
REITs
Telecom
Diversified Financials Banks
Pharma & Bio Tech
Healthcare
Food & Staples
-25.0%
Retailing
Media
Food & Beverages
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables
Transportation
Materials
Energy
-5.0%
TASI
35.0%
Capital Goods
55.0%
Commercial Service
75.0%
15.0%
TASI started the month at 7,283.01 points and closed at 6,934.37 with an average daily value traded of SAR 2.89bn compared to 3.14bn in September.
On YTD basis, TASI declined 276.1 points (down 3.8%). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 56.9% and 15.3% respectively. On other hand, Pharma & Bio Tech and Transportation were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 26.7% and 24.6% respectively.
YTD
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Pharma & Bio Tech
Consumer Durables
Food & Staples
Utilities
Healthcare
Retailing
Telecom
Transportation
Commercial Service
Capital Goods
Energy
Consumer Services
REITs
Media
Real Estate
Food & Beverages
Insurance
© All rights reserved
Diversified Financials
1
Materials
0.0%
Banks
5.00%
Banks and Basic Materials were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 34.9% and 25.1%, respectively, of total value traded in October. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.1% and 0.4% respectively.
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
15.0%
On a Monthly basis, Dubai was the best performing index, rising 2.0%MoM. TASI was the worst performer recording a decline of 4.8%MoM.
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi (ADSMI)
Qatar
Kuwait
Monthly
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies (October 2017)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -1 0.0%
AL -MAATHER Saudi REIT German Dar Al Arkan
Malath
Insurance
Salama
Budget Saudi
SPPC
Etihad Etisalat
ZAIN KSA
MEPCO
-2 0.0% -3 0.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7.95
8.13
8.14
8.20
ARNB
7.71
BJAZ
7.00
7.01
7.43
Trade Union
8.00
Arabian Shield
10.00 9.00
8.56
8.95
9.08
9.12
9.12
9.14
9.20
9.22
United Cooperative Assurance had the lowest P/E of 7.01x by the end of October, followed by Buruj at 7.43x and ALBABTAIN at 7.71x.
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
Saudi Cement
Gulf Union
Solidarity
WALAA
ALJOUF
samba
saib
Zamil Indust
AL-BABTAIN
Buruj
UCA
5.00 4.00
On a monthly basis, Dar Al Arkan was the best performing stock recording an increase of 26.2%MoM followed by Malath Insurance which showed increase of 24.2%MoM. On the other hand, ZAIN KSA was the worst performing stock recording a 26.5% decline, followed by Etihad Etisalat which showed a decline of 20.9%MoM.
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
SAIBOR 3M
2.350
SAIBOR 6M
2.200 2.050
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.791% and 2.046% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR remained flat on a MoM basis.
1.900 1.750 1.600 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Inflation Rate
Oct-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
3.10% 2.60%
KSA’s inflation remained in the negative zone on September, standing at -0.1%.
2.10% 1.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% -0.40% -0.90%
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Deposits & loans
Sep-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
78%
Sep-13
-3.5%
Jun-13
80%
Mar-13
82%
-2.0%
Dec-12
84%
Sep-12
1.0% -0.5%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
3
© All rights reserved
Sep-17
Jul-17
Mar-17
May-17
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
May-16
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
-2.0%
Sep-14
-15.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 16.8bn (-1.0%MoM), while loans showed a decrease of SAR 9.5bn (-0.7%MoM) by end of September.
-5.0%
Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of (-1.5% YoY), the highest decline was for loans with maturity of 1-3 years which showed a decline of (-5.9% YoY), while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 3.0%YoY.
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
Sep-17
Jan-17
Sep-16
May-17
Other Deposits (LHS)
May-16
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
May-15
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Jan-16
700,000
Sep-15
-60,000
Jan-15
900,000
Sep-14
-35,000
May-14
1,100,000
Jan-14
-10,000
Sep-13
1,300,000
May-13
15,000
Jan-13
1,500,000
Sep-12
40,000
SAR (Million)
1,700,000
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
20.0
64.0
18.0
54.0
SAR (Million)
44.0
14.0
34.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
© All rights reserved
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
12.0
24.0
SAR ('000)
16.0
10.0
Demand deposits showed a decrease of SAR 11.4bn (-1.2%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed a decrease of SAR 14.0bn (-2.9%MoM). On the other hand, government deposits showed a decline of (-1.4% MoM).
Point of Sales showed a decline of (-10.6% MoM) and stood at SAR 15.1bn, with total number of transactions standing at 56.3mn (down 10.3%).
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital 7
63
6
58
5 4
53
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 6.7%MoM and 5.2%MoM respectively, and closed at $61.37 and $54.38 respectively.
3
48
2 43
1
38 Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Spread(RHS)
May-17
Jun-17
Brent(LHS)
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
0
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Oct-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
50
Apr-13
55
-15.0%
Jan-13
60
Oct-12
-5.0% -10.0%
Gold and Silver showed a decline of -0.6%MoM and an increase of 0.4%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1271.4 and $16.7.
G/S Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4 3.2
Copper showed an increase of 4.9%MoM and ended the month at 3.101 USD/lb.
3
USD/Ib
2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Steel **
Aug-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
650
Steel showed an increase of 1.0%MoM and ended the month at 605.0 USD/ton.
USD/Ton
600
550
500
450 Oct-16
5
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
* December 2017 contract for Brent, November 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed an increase of 1.6%MoM by the end of October and stood at 94.55 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
EUR/USD
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.230
Euro depreciated against the Dollar by 1.4%MoM and stood at 1.165EUR/USD.
1.190
1.150
1.110
1.070
1.030
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
USD/YUAN
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6.95 6.85
YUAN appreciated by 0.3%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.635YUAN/USD.
6.75 6.65 6.55 6.45
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
USD/YEN
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
119
YEN depreciated by 1.0%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 113.64YEN/USD.
116 113 110 107 104 101
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
© All rights reserved
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 6,934.37 points, a 4.8% decrease MoM compared to September 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 66.58bn. Banks and Basic Materials sectors accounted for 59.9% of the total value traded. Utilities was the only sector to show an increase (1.5% MoM) during October, while REITs and Media were the worst performing sectors showing a decline of 13.2% and 10.9% MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During October
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,300
6.00
7,200
5.00
7,100 4.00
7,000
3.00
6,900 6,800
1-Oct-17
8-Oct-17
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
15-Oct-17
22-Oct-17
2.00
29-Oct-17
Closing Price - LHS
Sectors Performance
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
MoM Performance
Insurance
Real Estate
Utilities
REITs
Telecom
Diversified Financials Banks
Pharma & Bio Tech
Healthcare
Food & Staples
-25.0%
Retailing
Media
Food & Beverages
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables
Transportation
Materials
Energy
-5.0%
TASI
35.0%
Capital Goods
55.0%
Commercial Service
75.0%
15.0%
TASI started the month at 7,283.01 points and closed at 6,934.37 with an average daily value traded of SAR 2.89bn compared to 3.14bn in September.
On YTD basis, TASI declined 276.1 points (down 3.8%). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 56.9% and 15.3% respectively. On other hand, Pharma & Bio Tech and Transportation were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 26.7% and 24.6% respectively.
YTD
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Pharma & Bio Tech
Consumer Durables
Food & Staples
Utilities
Healthcare
Retailing
Telecom
Transportation
Commercial Service
Capital Goods
Energy
Consumer Services
REITs
Media
Real Estate
Food & Beverages
Insurance
© All rights reserved
Diversified Financials
1
Materials
0.0%
Banks
5.00%
Banks and Basic Materials were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 34.9% and 25.1%, respectively, of total value traded in October. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.1% and 0.4% respectively.
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
15.0%
On a Monthly basis, Dubai was the best performing index, rising 2.0%MoM. TASI was the worst performer recording a decline of 4.8%MoM.
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi (ADSMI)
Qatar
Kuwait
Monthly
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies (October 2017)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -1 0.0%
AL -MAATHER Saudi REIT German Dar Al Arkan
Malath
Insurance
Salama
Budget Saudi
SPPC
Etihad Etisalat
ZAIN KSA
MEPCO
-2 0.0% -3 0.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7.95
8.13
8.14
8.20
ARNB
7.71
BJAZ
7.00
7.01
7.43
Trade Union
8.00
Arabian Shield
10.00 9.00
8.56
8.95
9.08
9.12
9.12
9.14
9.20
9.22
United Cooperative Assurance had the lowest P/E of 7.01x by the end of October, followed by Buruj at 7.43x and ALBABTAIN at 7.71x.
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
Saudi Cement
Gulf Union
Solidarity
WALAA
ALJOUF
samba
saib
Zamil Indust
AL-BABTAIN
Buruj
UCA
5.00 4.00
On a monthly basis, Dar Al Arkan was the best performing stock recording an increase of 26.2%MoM followed by Malath Insurance which showed increase of 24.2%MoM. On the other hand, ZAIN KSA was the worst performing stock recording a 26.5% decline, followed by Etihad Etisalat which showed a decline of 20.9%MoM.
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
SAIBOR 3M
2.350
SAIBOR 6M
2.200 2.050
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.791% and 2.046% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR remained flat on a MoM basis.
1.900 1.750 1.600 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Inflation Rate
Oct-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
3.10% 2.60%
KSA’s inflation remained in the negative zone on September, standing at -0.1%.
2.10% 1.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% -0.40% -0.90%
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Deposits & loans
Sep-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
78%
Sep-13
-3.5%
Jun-13
80%
Mar-13
82%
-2.0%
Dec-12
84%
Sep-12
1.0% -0.5%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
3
© All rights reserved
Sep-17
Jul-17
Mar-17
May-17
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
May-16
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
-2.0%
Sep-14
-15.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 16.8bn (-1.0%MoM), while loans showed a decrease of SAR 9.5bn (-0.7%MoM) by end of September.
-5.0%
Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of (-1.5% YoY), the highest decline was for loans with maturity of 1-3 years which showed a decline of (-5.9% YoY), while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 3.0%YoY.
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
Sep-17
Jan-17
Sep-16
May-17
Other Deposits (LHS)
May-16
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
May-15
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Jan-16
700,000
Sep-15
-60,000
Jan-15
900,000
Sep-14
-35,000
May-14
1,100,000
Jan-14
-10,000
Sep-13
1,300,000
May-13
15,000
Jan-13
1,500,000
Sep-12
40,000
SAR (Million)
1,700,000
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
20.0
64.0
18.0
54.0
SAR (Million)
44.0
14.0
34.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
© All rights reserved
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
12.0
24.0
SAR ('000)
16.0
10.0
Demand deposits showed a decrease of SAR 11.4bn (-1.2%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed a decrease of SAR 14.0bn (-2.9%MoM). On the other hand, government deposits showed a decline of (-1.4% MoM).
Point of Sales showed a decline of (-10.6% MoM) and stood at SAR 15.1bn, with total number of transactions standing at 56.3mn (down 10.3%).
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital 7
63
6
58
5 4
53
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 6.7%MoM and 5.2%MoM respectively, and closed at $61.37 and $54.38 respectively.
3
48
2 43
1
38 Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Spread(RHS)
May-17
Jun-17
Brent(LHS)
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
0
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Oct-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
50
Apr-13
55
-15.0%
Jan-13
60
Oct-12
-5.0% -10.0%
Gold and Silver showed a decline of -0.6%MoM and an increase of 0.4%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1271.4 and $16.7.
G/S Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4 3.2
Copper showed an increase of 4.9%MoM and ended the month at 3.101 USD/lb.
3
USD/Ib
2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Steel **
Aug-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
650
Steel showed an increase of 1.0%MoM and ended the month at 605.0 USD/ton.
USD/Ton
600
550
500
450 Oct-16
5
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
* December 2017 contract for Brent, November 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
November 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | October 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed an increase of 1.6%MoM by the end of October and stood at 94.55 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
EUR/USD
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.230
Euro depreciated against the Dollar by 1.4%MoM and stood at 1.165EUR/USD.
1.190
1.150
1.110
1.070
1.030
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
USD/YUAN
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6.95 6.85
YUAN appreciated by 0.3%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.635YUAN/USD.
6.75 6.65 6.55 6.45
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
USD/YEN
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
119
YEN depreciated by 1.0%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 113.64YEN/USD.
116 113 110 107 104 101
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
© All rights reserved
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Oct-17
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
