MSE
5. HERRING (Jun 21-23, 2016) #1
Dr. Rachel Feeney Council Staff
Council Meeting June 22, 2016 1
Outline 1. A8 goals/objective 2. A8 timeline 3. MSE workshop outcomes
4. Herring PDT/AP/CTE input 5. MSE next steps Discussion goal Approve objectives, performance metrics, and control rules to be evaluated in the current Management Strategy Evaluation. 2
Amendment 8 goals 1. To account for the role of Atlantic herring within the ecosystem, including its role as forage; 2. To stabilize the fishery at a level designed to achieve optimum yield; 3. To address localized depletion in inshore waters.
A8 objective 1. Develop and implement an Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) control rule that manages Atlantic herring within an ecosystem context and addresses the goals of Amendment 8. 3
Amendment 8 timeline
2016
Jan.
ABC control rule Council approved developing measures via MSE
Apr May
MSE workshop #1
June
AP/Cte/Council review and approve outcomes
2018
PDT tasking cont.
July Aug
AP/Cte review PDT work, develop measures
Nov Dec Jan TBD TBD
Develop measures
MSE technical work, updates at Sep-Oct Cte/Council mtgs
2017
Localized depletion Cte tasked PDT with background analyses Cte/Council approved problem statement
MSE workshop #2 Council approve range of alternatives MSE peer review; impacts analysis; public hearings; final action Implementation 4
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) • Council is developing alternatives via management strategy evaluation, involving: • Discussion about the objectives/desired outcomes of the control rule. • Technical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives.
5
MSE workshop goals 1. Improve understanding of MSE. 2. Develop Council recommendations: a. ABC control rule objectives. b. How control rule performance relative to objectives could be measured. c. Control rules/characteristics to test.
d. Improve understanding of the potentials and limitations of models that may affect simulation testing. Identify which uncertainties are most important to resolve. e. Provide an opportunity for stakeholders to provide greater input than typically possible at Council meetings. 6
MSE workshop participants Beyond the steering committee, facilitators, and staff, 69 people attended. 14% 7% 7% 9% 12% 4% 25% 22%
Herring Committee members Herring Advisory Panel members Herring Plan Development Team members Herring fishery Lobster fishery Environmental non-governmental organizations Other fishery (tuna, groundfish) Federal/state agencies, scientists, other 7
MSE workshop outcomes •
Workshop developed objectives, performance metrics, and ABC control rules that can be evaluated this summer with the current modeling capabilities.
•
Some interest in considering spatial scales smaller than the A. herring stock area (ME to NC). • Models are not yet advanced enough to consider spatial scales smaller than the stock area.
• Council currently addressing localized depletion concerns through other aspects of Amendment 8. • For Amendment 8, the Council is focused on considering control rules for the Atlantic herring ABC, which applies stock-wide. A sub-ACL control rule could 8 be developed through a future action.
MSE workshop outcomes Fundamental Objectives Maintain sufficient herring population for forage needs Prevent overfishing of herring Maximize yield for herring fleet Maximize profit for herring fleet Ensure herring catch temporal stability Maintain a herring population with normal size/age structure Maintain predator abundance/ condition
Means Objectives Ensure catch limits allow sufficient herring for predators Achieve MSY or OY Limit annual variation in quota Ensure appropriate fishing selectivity/ intensity Establish a forage setaside 9
MSE workshop outcomes Performance metrics (examples)
• Herring SSB, Btarget, M relative to BMSY, B0 • Herring ABC relative to catch when FMSY
• Herring surplus production • Herring ABC inter-annual fluctuation • Predator abundance/condition
• Revenue/profit 10
MSE workshop outcomes Control rules (examples) • Catch or F changing with biomass. • Set-aside (as unfished) 30% of SSB • Reduce catch (F) when SSB
Dr. Rachel Feeney Council Staff
Council Meeting June 22, 2016 1
Outline 1. A8 goals/objective 2. A8 timeline 3. MSE workshop outcomes
4. Herring PDT/AP/CTE input 5. MSE next steps Discussion goal Approve objectives, performance metrics, and control rules to be evaluated in the current Management Strategy Evaluation. 2
Amendment 8 goals 1. To account for the role of Atlantic herring within the ecosystem, including its role as forage; 2. To stabilize the fishery at a level designed to achieve optimum yield; 3. To address localized depletion in inshore waters.
A8 objective 1. Develop and implement an Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) control rule that manages Atlantic herring within an ecosystem context and addresses the goals of Amendment 8. 3
Amendment 8 timeline
2016
Jan.
ABC control rule Council approved developing measures via MSE
Apr May
MSE workshop #1
June
AP/Cte/Council review and approve outcomes
2018
PDT tasking cont.
July Aug
AP/Cte review PDT work, develop measures
Nov Dec Jan TBD TBD
Develop measures
MSE technical work, updates at Sep-Oct Cte/Council mtgs
2017
Localized depletion Cte tasked PDT with background analyses Cte/Council approved problem statement
MSE workshop #2 Council approve range of alternatives MSE peer review; impacts analysis; public hearings; final action Implementation 4
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) • Council is developing alternatives via management strategy evaluation, involving: • Discussion about the objectives/desired outcomes of the control rule. • Technical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives.
5
MSE workshop goals 1. Improve understanding of MSE. 2. Develop Council recommendations: a. ABC control rule objectives. b. How control rule performance relative to objectives could be measured. c. Control rules/characteristics to test.
d. Improve understanding of the potentials and limitations of models that may affect simulation testing. Identify which uncertainties are most important to resolve. e. Provide an opportunity for stakeholders to provide greater input than typically possible at Council meetings. 6
MSE workshop participants Beyond the steering committee, facilitators, and staff, 69 people attended. 14% 7% 7% 9% 12% 4% 25% 22%
Herring Committee members Herring Advisory Panel members Herring Plan Development Team members Herring fishery Lobster fishery Environmental non-governmental organizations Other fishery (tuna, groundfish) Federal/state agencies, scientists, other 7
MSE workshop outcomes •
Workshop developed objectives, performance metrics, and ABC control rules that can be evaluated this summer with the current modeling capabilities.
•
Some interest in considering spatial scales smaller than the A. herring stock area (ME to NC). • Models are not yet advanced enough to consider spatial scales smaller than the stock area.
• Council currently addressing localized depletion concerns through other aspects of Amendment 8. • For Amendment 8, the Council is focused on considering control rules for the Atlantic herring ABC, which applies stock-wide. A sub-ACL control rule could 8 be developed through a future action.
MSE workshop outcomes Fundamental Objectives Maintain sufficient herring population for forage needs Prevent overfishing of herring Maximize yield for herring fleet Maximize profit for herring fleet Ensure herring catch temporal stability Maintain a herring population with normal size/age structure Maintain predator abundance/ condition
Means Objectives Ensure catch limits allow sufficient herring for predators Achieve MSY or OY Limit annual variation in quota Ensure appropriate fishing selectivity/ intensity Establish a forage setaside 9
MSE workshop outcomes Performance metrics (examples)
• Herring SSB, Btarget, M relative to BMSY, B0 • Herring ABC relative to catch when FMSY
• Herring surplus production • Herring ABC inter-annual fluctuation • Predator abundance/condition
• Revenue/profit 10
MSE workshop outcomes Control rules (examples) • Catch or F changing with biomass. • Set-aside (as unfished) 30% of SSB • Reduce catch (F) when SSB
