MyHome.ie Property Barometer Q1 2011
MyHome.ie Property Barometer Q1 2011 Measuring the Irish Property Market Analysis by Annette Hughes, DKM Economic Consultants
03 Introduction + Key Highlights
04 Market Analysis
08 County by County Analysis: Market Index
10 Leinster Spotlight
11 Dublin Spotlight
12 Connaught, Munster and Ulster Spotlight
Contents
14 Special Report: Vacant Housing Stock
16 Indices & Methodology
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 2
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Angela Keegan,
MyHome.ie Managing Director
Introduction ...downward trend in asking prices has continued into Q1 2011...
The latest edition of the MyHome.ie Property Barometer reports that the downward trend in asking prices experienced in 2010 has continued into Q1 2011. While activity in the main is fuelled by First Time Buyers, the recent Stamp Duty changes as announced in the December budget are attracting trader uppers back into the market.
Key Highlights
1 2 3 4 5
In Q1 2011 average mix adjusted asking prices fell by 4.1% nationally and 3.8% in Dublin
The average mix-adjusted asking price for a property in Dublin now stands at €301,984 as against €259,745 nationally
Mix-adjusted house prices in Dublin declined at their lowest annual rate since Q4 2008 at 15.1%
The average time for a property to go sale agreed is now 3 months in Dublin 5 months in Leinster, 7 months in Munster and 13 months in Connaught/ Ulster
Median asking price for 3-bed semis around the country continues to improve at €179,000
6
Counties Longford and Westmeath recorded the lowest asking price for a 3-bed semi during the quarter at €149,000
7
Wicklow, excluding Dublin, had the most expensive median asking price for a 4 bed semi at €360,000 in Leinster
8 9 10
Prices for 1-bed apartments have been falling by approximately €5,000 per quarter
Four of the top five counties with the highest vacant stock are located in the Border / West regions
During the boom years houses tended to sell above the asking price. The trend for the last few years has been for sales to close below the asking price. This gap should narrow as the demand/supply balance is amended
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 3
...The recent roller coaster ride has slowed down somewhat... While still contracting, the intensity of the fall in economic output has been much more moderate in 2010. Expectations for 2011 are suggesting that the rate of growth may be lower than expected some months ago. GNP fell by 2.1% in 2010 and GDP declined by 1%. Despite the continued weak year-on-year performance, some tentative green shoots have begun to show: over the last quarter of 2010, GNP increased by a respectable 2%, while GDP fell by 1.6% over the same period. Indeed, with the exception of Q1, GNP expanded in three of the four quarters of 2010 - this is the first time there has been three consecutive quarters of GNP growth since Q1 2008. The decline in Building and Construction output has shown the first signs of abating: while output fell by a massive 33.1% in 2010, by the last quarter of 2010 it had moderated to -3.1%. Personal consumption (-1.2%), Government expenditure (-2.2%) and Gross fixed capital formation (-27.8%) all remained weak in 2010. Exports alone grew by 9.4% in 2010, driven by strong performances from multinational companies in the pharmaceutical, computer and services sectors. It remains to be seen if the recent bank recapitalisation measures restore credibility to the Irish banking system and ultimately get credit flowing again.
85% of job losses in the year to Q4 were in the 20-34 age groups As the number of people in employment continues to fall, the key age groups for the First Time Buyer market are hit the hardest. The largest employment losses in the year to Q4 2010 occurred for the 20-24 year age group (-28,400) while a broadly similar decrease was recorded for those aged 25-34 (-26,100). These two age groups combined accounted for close to 85% of the total fall in employment -64,500) over the year. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 13.7% to 14.7% in the quarter to Q4 2010. Q1 2011 figures from the Live Register suggest that the rate stabilised at 14.7% in the first three months. Although the rate of decline in employment has slowed down somewhat, an increased participation in education and emigration have contributed to a steady decline in the labour force.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has signalled an interest rate increase in April, amid concerns about inflation in the Euro zone. Irish annual inflation stood at 2.2% in February 2011, at its highest since November 2008. Any increase in ECB rates (at 1% since May 2009) will affect all mortgage holders, including those with tracker products, and will
Consumer sentiment still shaky The KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index improved slightly in February. Consumers are still very cautious, particularly with respect to the current economic conditions. The opportunity to participate in the democratic process may have lifted spirits somewhat, notwithstanding the ever mounting requirements for bank funding, looming debt burdens and interest rate hikes. It is however doubtful whether this slight improvement in outlook will translate into property transactions. Loss of job security and earnings and continued difficulties with accessing credit plus impending interest rate hikes are likely to keep the housing market depressed for quite some time yet.
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cause further hardship for those already struggling to keep up their repayments.
Consumers are still very cautious, particularly with respect to the current economic conditions.
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Interest rate rise is imminent
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 4
Market Analysis
Annual rate of decline nationally highest since Q4 2009
The most recent trends in asking prices, based on mix-adjusted data, are perhaps not surprising, given conditions in the domestic economy. Further house price reductions have been recorded in Q1 2011 both in quarterly and annual terms. The annual rate of decline nationally accelerated to 13.8%, up from 13.1% in Q4 2010 and 12% in Q1 2010. This was the highest annual rate of decline since Q4 2009. The average asking price was €259,745 in Q1 2011, just 63% of where it was at the peak. Although there is limited economic data published to date for Q1, key factors continuing to dampen activity levels in the housing market comprise 1) the weakness in employment, 2) the fall in incomes, 3) increases in the cost of living and the difficulties accessing credit. With consumers focusing on reducing their debt levels and faced with the prospect of higher mortgage rates, further price reductions are likely over the course of 2011.
Average price Q1 2011
Summary of mix-adjusted asking price changes Q1 2011
% Change Q1 2011
Annual % change
% Change since peak
National
€259,745
- 4.1%
- 13.8%
- 37.3%
Dublin
€301,984
- 3.8%
- 15.1%
- 43.5%
New
€236,780
- 3.8%
- 12.8%
- 35.9%
Second Hand
€263,127
- 4.1%
- 13.9%
- 37.8%
New versus second hand Average mix-adjusted new house prices fell by 3.8% in the quarter and by 12.8%
Pace of decline: Dublin versus national
in the year to €236,780 in Q1 2011. The corresponding decline for second-hand properties was 4.1% and 13.9% respectively, generating a mix-adjusted house price of €263,127. Both new and second-hand prices are now 35.9% and 37.8% below where they were at during the peak.
Lowest rate of annual decline in Dublin since Q4 2008 Conversely in Dublin, average mix-adjusted asking prices were 15.1% lower in year-on-year terms in Q1 2011. Although a higher decline than the national average, it represented the lowest annual rate of decline in Dublin since Q4 2008. While the annual rate of decline remains in double digit territory, the moderating pace is a welcome development. The average mix-adjusted asking price in Dublin was €301,984 in Q1 2011, almost 57% of where it was at the peak.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 5
Asking prices nationally are down 37.3% since the peak
Mix-adjusted asking price index: Dublin versus national
Comparisons with the peak in house prices show that average mix-adjusted asking house prices were down by 37.3% nationally in Q1 2011. This figure compares with 38.3% based on transactions prices reported by the permanent-tsb/esri house price index up to Q4 2010. The corresponding figures for Dublin were 43.5% using mix-adjusted asking prices and almost 45% using transactions prices up to Q4 2010.
An analysis of median house prices by type nationally showed little difference between the price of a 2-bed apartment (€195,000) and a 3-bed terraced house (€190,000) in Q1 2011. The median prices for 1-bed apartments, at €160,000 nationally and €175,000 in Dublin, at around 4.5 to 5 times average earnings, have been falling by around €5,000 per quarter. The median price for a 4-bed semi detached property was almost 100% higher in Dublin than the State as a whole.
Summary of median house prices: Dublin versus national
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Prices for 1-bed apartments have been falling by around €5,000 per quarter
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House prices by type
Dublin
National
1 Bed Apt
€175,000
€160,000
Dublin Vs. National % difference + 9.4%
2 Bed Apt
€231,000
€195,000
+18.5%
3 Bed Terrace
€249,250
€190,000
+31.2%
3 Bed Semi
€285,000
€205,000
+39.0%
4 Bed Detached
€590,000
€300,000
+96.7%
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 6
Market Analysis
Price of 3-bed semis around 5 times average earnings The affordability of 3-bed semi-detached properties around the country has continued to improve. Based on median house prices, the data shows the national median asking price of a 3-bed semi was €179,000 in Q1 2011. This price is equivalent to around 5 times average earnings and compares with an earnings multiple of 5.7 one year previously. The biggest price falls in year-on-year terms were recorded in Westmeath (-24.7%), Meath (-22%) and Carlow (-18.5%) while prices in Cavan (-2.2%) and Roscommon (-4.4%), were less than 5% below their prices one year earlier. Prices in Cavan, Galway, Limerick and Roscommon were unchanged on the previous quarter, while median prices in Waterford were 1.5% higher in the quarter. The median asking price ranged from €149,500 in Longford
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to €285,000 in Dublin.
3 bed semi: Median asking prices by county Q1 2011
Affordability of 3 bed semi detached properties around the country has continued to improve
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Asking prices versus transactions prices
During the boom period when prices (and incomes) were rising and the number of buyers exceeded the number of sellers, transactions prices would have been significantly higher than asking prices, whereas now in recessionary times, asking prices are typically what vendors aspire to. As the market has adjusted downwards over the past four years and transactions have plummeted, asking prices have also had to adjust downwards. In today’s market characterised by oversupply in some locations and a lack of mortgage finance, transactions prices tend to be below asking prices as what buyers are willing to pay or can afford is much lower now than during the boom years. The gap should narrow, however, as sellers become more realistic and as the demand/supply balance is addressed.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 7
Market index prepared by Graham Neary, Technical Analyst 4 Bed Semi Median Price Q1 2011
% Change Q1 2011
Annual % Change
Dublin
€395,000
-4.82%
-12.22%
Meath
€235,000
-7.84%
-20.34%
Kildare
€268,000
-0.74%
-10.37%
Wicklow
€340,000
-4.23%
-14.89%
Longford
€175,000
-2.78%
-5.41%
Offaly
€225,000
-4.26%
-10.00%
Westmeath
€184,975
-5.13%
-20.27%
Laois
€192,500
-1.28%
-8.11%
Louth
€240,000
-9.43%
-14.29%
Carlow
€199,975
-6.99%
-21.58%
Kilkenny
€215,000
-12.24%
-15.69%
Wexford
€197,000
1.03%
-16.17%
Waterford
€235,000
-1.26%
-8.91%
Kerry
€230,000
-7.63%
-34.29%
Cork
€256,500
-5.00%
-13.93%
Clare
€185,000
-8.19%
-11.90%
Limerick
€220,000
1.38%
-15.38%
Tipperary
€185,000
-2.49%
- 5.13%
Galway
€246,250
-1.50%
-5.29%
Mayo
€188,750
-3.21%
-10.12%
Roscommon
€180,000
-2.70%
-9.99%
Sligo
€190,000
-1.30%
-13.64%
Leitrim
€180,000
-2.70%
-5.26%
Donegal
€169,000
0.00%
-47.60%
Cavan
€195,000
0.00%
-4.88%
Monaghan
€187,500
1.35%
-12.79%
Leinster
Munster
Connaught & Ulster
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 8
County Analysis 3 Bed Semi Index
% change in asking prices Q1 2011 Our county by county analysis of 3 bedroom semi detached properties shows the median changes in asking prices in each county. The median is the “middle” price. It can be thought of as the price of the house which is more expensive than exactly half of the other houses. We find that it is superior to the average in estimating the price of a typical house.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 9
Leinster Spotlight
Leinster Many of the counties of Leinster would have experienced rapid house price inflation during the housing boom in response to strong employment growth in the commuter towns and transport corridors radiating from Dublin.
Properties that went Sale Agreed in Q1 2011
As housing in Dublin became more unaffordable, significant investment in housing and other infrastructure took place in the surrounding counties of Kildare, Meath and Wicklow to accommodate the increase in housing demand. With the publication of the National Spatial Strategy in 2002 and in order to achieve more balanced regional development, the pattern of housing development spread to the outer Leinster counties of Louth, Longford, Offaly, Laois and Wexford where housing was less expensive than in the main urban areas. Many
Dublin South 4 Bed Semi Detached 5 Rossmore Avenue, Templeogue, Dublin 6
households chose to commute long distances to their place of work in Dublin just to get onto the housing ladder at a time when it seemed like the opportunity to own their own homes was moving out of their reach, as house prices in the main urban areas moved more and more into unaffordable territory.
Asking Price: €450,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 10 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/433187
Four years on since the market peaked, house prices in Leinster have fallen more or less in line with the rest of the country: by around 35% since the peak compared with a fall of 37.3% across the State as a whole. The most recent data on the price of 3-bed semi-detached houses in Q1 2011 shows a median asking price of €192,000 across the 12 counties of Leinster or €189,000 excluding Dublin. The corresponding median prices for 4-bed semidetached houses are €220,000 across Leinster or €215,000 excluding Dublin. There will be differences, however, across and within the individual counties. Looking at median prices across the individual counties in Q1 2011: Excluding Dublin, Wicklow had the most expensive 3-bed and 4-bed semi-detached properties at
Dublin North 3 Bed Semi Detached 2 Coolgreena Road, Beaumont, Dublin 9 Asking Price: €240,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 9 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/431989
€260,000 and €340,000 respectively. The lowest asking prices for 3-bed semi-detached properties were in Longford (€149,500) and Westmeath (€149,950). 9 of the 12 counties had prices below €200,000. 5 counties had asking prices for 4-bed semi-detached properties below €200,000, with the lowest price recorded in Longford (€175,000). The annual rate of decline in house prices remains very much in double digit territory, with Westmeath and Meath recording declines for 3-bed and 4-bed semis in excess of 20% in Q1 2011. In
Dublin North 4 Bed Semi Detached 33 Brian Avenue, Marino,Dublin 3 Asking Price: €250,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 2 Weeks View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/437477
respect of 4-bed semis, Carlow recorded the highest decline of 21.6%.
Kilkenny
On The Market
3 Bed Semi Detached 18 Hawthorn Avenue, Ardnore, Kilkennny City
Dublin
Asking Price: €145,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 2 Weeks
1 Bed Bungalow Bremore lodge, Balbriggan, Dublin Asking Price: €99,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/183149
Kildare 3 Bed Semi Detached 17 Moneen View, Athy, Co. Kildare Asking Price: €99,950 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/344574
Wicklow
Properties for under €100,000
Wexford 4 Bed End of Terrace 15 Beachview, Duncannon, Co. Wexford Asking Price: €169,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 2 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1272559
1 Bed Apartment The Mill, Baltinglass, Wicklow Asking Price: €68,500 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/183223
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 10
Dublin Spotlight
Around The Country: What’s happening in your area?
Dublin: Second hand residential stock available for sale is 7,100 North County Dublin
The seventh consecutive quarterly decline for this locality brought the asking price down by nearly €12,000 to €265,000. The total fall from the peak in Q4 2006 (€455,000) to current levels is 41.8%, a slightly bigger percentage drop
Dublin North City
than the other main subdivisions of Dublin.
Prices in this location recorded the highest quarterly decline of 6.8% in the latest quarter, reaching the lowest median asking price (€172,500) across all our urban locations. The annual decline was 25%, while the total decline since the peak is 56.3%, generating the most dramatic fall under each measure amongst our urban spotlights.
West County Dublin Like Dublin South, Dublin West also saw a marginal decline of just €1,000 in the median asking price to €229,000. With an annual drop of 8.4%, it also has the third lowest percentage decline over that time period. Prices have been declining for 15 consecutive quarters.
South County Dublin Dublin South recorded just a marginal decline in the latest quarter from €350,000 to €349,000. The percentage fall for the last four quarters is 7.9%, the mildest decline over that time period of all our city spotlight locations. Median prices in this locality are almost 40% below their peak in Q3 2006.
Dublin South City
Surprisingly, this location registered an increase in the median asking price in Q1 2011 of 2.8% to €241,500, the first quarterly increase for any urban spotlight location since Q4 2009. The percentage decline since the peak (€425,000, Q1 2006) is now 43.2%.
Median Price Q1 2011
% Change Q1 2011
Annual % change
% Change since peak
North
€265,000
- 4.2%
- 11.4%
- 41.8%
South
€349,000
- 0.3%
- 7.9%
- 39.8%
West
€229,000
- 0.4%
- 8.4 %
- 37.9%
City North
€172,500
- 6.8%
- 25.0 %
- 56.3%
City South
€241,500
2.8%
- 11.4 %
- 43.2%
Dublin Summary of median asking price changes Q1 2011
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 11
Connaught, Munster and Ulster When looking at one house type, the median prices across the individual counties often tend to be
Properties that went Sale Agreed in Q1 2011
less volatile than for the full basket of properties including all house types. While acknowledging that the annual rate of decline across all house types remains in double digit territory, the annual rate of change for three and four bedroom semi-detached properties in some counties is in single digits. The median price of 3 bed semi-detached properties in Tipperary declined by 7.7% over the year to
Cork West 5 Bed Detached Templemartin, Bandon, Cork West
just €180,000. The corresponding price for 4-bed semi-detached properties was marginally higher at €185,000, following a decline of just 5.1% over the year. Other counties reporting an annual decline in single digits for 3-bed semis include Cavan (-2.2%), Roscommon (-4.4%), Monaghan (-5.5%) and Leitrim (-7.4%).
Asking Price: €375,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 6 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1245183
After Cork, Waterford had the highest median price for 3 and 4 bed semi-detached properties at €198,000 and €235,000 respectively.
Waterford
Median prices in Connaught varied from €162,500 in Roscommon to €210,000 in Galway for 3 bed
4 Bed Detached Kilbree East, Cappoquin, Co. Waterford
semis, with the range for 4-bed semis between €180,000 in Leitrim and Roscommon and €246,250 in Galway. In respect of the Ulster counties, Donegal had the lowest prices for 3 and 4 bed semi-detached properties at €155,000 and €169,000 respectively. Prices for 3-bed semis were unchanged at €175,000
Asking Price: €295,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 5 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1255940
in Cavan, despite the fact that sales (and lettings) in the Border counties, notably Cavan, have been affected by concerns about job security in the Quinn Insurance Group.
Galway 4 Bed Terrace Main Street Ballygar, Co. Galway Asking Price: €100,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 11 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1020905
On The Market
Sligo
Mayo
3 Bed Semi Detached 225 Rusheen Crescent, Caltragh, Sligo
2 Bed Terrace 8 Esker Pines, Ballyhaunis, Co. Mayo Asking Price: €59,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/428050
Roscommon 3 Bed Semi Detached 14 Coillte Bo, Loughglynn, Roscommon Asking Price: €85,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/419354
Donegal 2 Bed Detached Baile Na Carraige, Tooban, Co. Donegal Asking Price: €90,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/284741
Asking Price: €149,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 6 Weeks
Properties for under €100,000
Clare 3 Bed Semi Detached 12 Station View, Ennis, Co. Clare Asking Price: €155,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 7 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1243812
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 12
Connaught, Munster and Ulster Spotlight
Around The Country: What’s happening in your area?
Galway City The median asking price for Galway City decreased by €10,000 to €239,000. The peak price was €450,000 in Q2 2006, the highest outside of Dublin North and Dublin South. After Dublin North Galway City has had the second highest rate of decline since the peak at almost 47%, amongst all our urban spotlights.
Galway City Median Price Q1 2011
€239,000
% Change Q1 2011
-4.0%
Annual % Change Q1 2011
-13.1%
% Change since peak
-46.9%
Average time to
Limerick City
go Sale Agreed in
After dropping by €15,000 in Q4 2010, median asking
Connaught & Ulster
prices for Limerick City have fallen by €5,000 in the latest
is now at 13 months
quarter to €195,000 and are now the second lowest prices across our urban spotlights. The total percentage decline of 31.6% from peak to current levels is also the lowest rate of decline across all our urban locations.
Limerick City Median Price Q1 2011
€195,000
% Change Q1 2011
-2.5%
Annual % Change Q1 2011
-18.7%
% Change since peak
-31.6%
Cork City Cork City experienced a fall of 2%, taking the median asking price down from €250,000 to €245,000. This is the lowest rate of decline since Q4 2009. Median asking prices in this location have not seen a quarterly increase since Q3 2006 and have fallen by 35.5% since that peak.
Average time to go Sale Agreed in Munster is now at 7 months
Cork City Median Price Q1 2011
€245,000
% Change Q1 2011
-2.0%
Annual % Change Q1 2011
-15.4%
% Change since peak
-35.5%
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 13
Vacant completed dwellings Longford and Leitrim have over three times the number of vacant completed dwellings per 1,000 of the population than in the State as a whole
Among the many factors influencing the housing market, the vacant stock issue across the State is likely to be a key factor influencing property prices in the medium-term. Locations with relatively high vacant stock levels are likely to take longer to recover than other locations where the vacant stock is more modest. The Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government’s survey of new vacant dwellings carried out in October 2010 concluded that there were 121,248 dwellings at different levels of completion. The largest group within this total comprised the number of new completed but vacant dwellings at 23,250, almost one-fifth of the total.
In an interesting analysis of the number of new completed dwellings that were vacant across the provinces, Leinster accounted for 54% of the total, which is in line with its share of the population in 2006. Munster’s share of the total completed and vacant dwellings (25%) was less than it’s population share (28%) while in Connaught and the three counties of Ulster, their respective shares were higher than their population shares.
The Provinces: Stock of vacant completed dwellings versus the population
Dwellings per 1,000 of population
Share of vacant completed dwellings
Share of population 2006
Leinster
5.48
54%
54%
Munster
4.86
25%
28%
Connaught
6.36
14%
12%
Ulster (part)
6.60
8%
6%
State
5.48
100%
100%
Connaught & Ulster above State average
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 14
Special Report Vacant Housing Stock
some interesting trends, notably: The number of completed dwellings that are vacant per 1,000 of the population ranges from just 1.8 in Waterford to 18.2 in Longford, compared with the State average of 5.48 dwellings. Longford and Leitrim have over three times the number of vacant completed dwellings per 1,000 of the population than in the State as a whole. Four of the top five counties with the highest vacant stock per 1,000 of the population are located in the Border/West regions: Leitrim, Cavan, Sligo and Roscommon.
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Four of the top five counties with the highest vacant stock are located in the Border / West regions
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However looking in more detail at the individual counties reveals
14 counties have stock levels per 1,000 of the population which are below the State average, with levels in Waterford, Limerick, Wicklow and Kildare at or below 3 dwellings, implying little or no major oversupply problem in these counties.
In Dublin, the average is 5.74 vacant dwellings but a further breakdown across the individual local authority areas shows that the completed but vacant stock levels in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown and Fingal were 7.61 and 6.32 per 1,000 of the population respectively.
Number of vacant completed dwellings per 1,000 of population across the 26 counties
These figures provide an indication of the relative position of each county just in terms of the completed and vacant stock alone. Before this stock can be disposed of and translated into actual property transactions, the market will need to see a restoration of confidence, mortgage credit and stability in house prices, i.e. a return to a more normal market.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 15
Next MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q2 July 2011
INDICES
Q3 2005 Q1 2006
National
113.31
124.99
Q2 2006 132.89
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 136.58 137.57 138.16 136.82 138.57
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
136.30
134.35
132.29
138.80
136.50
134.64
132.90
130.23
Dublin
115.96
132.28
138.13
139.62
139.24
138.89
New
112.37
121.19
127.04
133.92
134.67
135.91
137.85
137.37
136.16
134.13
131.68
139.23
138.60
137.59
136.59
136.43
134.50
132.50
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
133.91
137.28
Q2 2006 6.32%
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 -0.72% -0.43% -0.30% 2.96% 1.28%
-0.21%
-1.43%
-1.53%
4.42%
1.08%
-0.28%
-0.25%
-0.06%
-1.66%
-1.36%
-1.29%
-2.01%
5.19%
4.82%
5.42%
0.56%
0.92%
1.43%
-0.35%
-0.88%
-1.49%
-1.83%
7.04%
6.48%
2.52%
1.42%
-0.46%
-0.73%
-0.73%
-0.12%
-1.42%
-1.48%
Q2 2006
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 411373 408420 413133 409124 414374
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
397368
407565
401739
395597
506046
528415
534124
532642
531320
530979
522157
515053
508397
498194
324615
340272
358721
360714
364039
369248
367959
364713
359268
352707
382034
406803
417065
422990
421055
418002
414966
414468
408598
402545
125.75
2nd Hand
113.60
% Change
Q3 2005 Q1 2006
National
4.93%
7.04%
Dublin
4.79%
9.34%
New
4.14%
2nd Hand
5.08%
Standard Price
Q3 2005 Q1 2006
National
338827
373743
Dublin
443617
New
300978
2nd Hand
345114
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 16
About the Report
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: The Method The trends presented in this report are based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie with comparisons by quarter over the last six years. This represents the majority of properties for sale in Ireland from leading estate agents nationwide. The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniques. Our data is collected from quarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie. Our main National and Dublin indices have been constructed with a widely-used regression technique which adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each quarter. Since the supply of property in each quarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured. Our method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix. For detailed statistics at the local level, we also provide a selection of median asking prices broken down by county or by urban location.
INDICES
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009
National
125.80
122.08
114.59
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 100.81 104.25 97.41 112.90 108.08
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Dublin
123.81
118.40
109.58
107.03
100.90
96.76
92.97
88.77
93.63
90.59
86.86
84.95
82.07
78.94
New
128.00
124.59
114.83
114.14
110.07
105.95
101.34
2nd Hand
125.60
121.84
114.50
112.69
107.74
104.02
100.65
97.01
95.15
91.88
88.40
97.32
93.28
90.33
86.61
% Change
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
-3.88%
-3.24%
-4.11%
National
-4.91%
-2.96%
-6.13%
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 -3.30% -3.54% -3.37% -1.48% -4.27%
Dublin
-4.93%
-4.37%
-7.44%
-2.33%
New
-2.79%
-2.66%
-7.83%
2nd Hand
-5.21%
-3.00%
-6.02%
Standard Price Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 National 376180 365057 342666 Dublin 473612 452921 419205 New 342850 333730 307590 2nd Hand
381578
370139
347857
-5.73%
-4.11%
-3.91%
-4.52%
-4.30%
-3.39%
-3.82%
-0.61%
-3.56%
-3.74%
-4.35%
-4.27%
-1.91%
-3.44%
-3.79%
-1.59%
-4.39%
-3.45%
-3.24%
-3.31%
-4.15%
-3.16%
-4.12%
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
279970
270886
259745 301984
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 337603 323180 311727 301449 291278 409448
385993
370137
355657
305716
294835
283795
271437
316019
305767
342343
327321
339598
324985
313965
259845
254871
246108
236780
283395
274429
263127
295657
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 17
Economic Analysis Annette Hughes [email protected]
Data Analysis Graham Neary [email protected]
Layout & Design Claire Hickey [email protected]
Copyright © MyHome.ie
03 Introduction + Key Highlights
04 Market Analysis
08 County by County Analysis: Market Index
10 Leinster Spotlight
11 Dublin Spotlight
12 Connaught, Munster and Ulster Spotlight
Contents
14 Special Report: Vacant Housing Stock
16 Indices & Methodology
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 2
“
“
Angela Keegan,
MyHome.ie Managing Director
Introduction ...downward trend in asking prices has continued into Q1 2011...
The latest edition of the MyHome.ie Property Barometer reports that the downward trend in asking prices experienced in 2010 has continued into Q1 2011. While activity in the main is fuelled by First Time Buyers, the recent Stamp Duty changes as announced in the December budget are attracting trader uppers back into the market.
Key Highlights
1 2 3 4 5
In Q1 2011 average mix adjusted asking prices fell by 4.1% nationally and 3.8% in Dublin
The average mix-adjusted asking price for a property in Dublin now stands at €301,984 as against €259,745 nationally
Mix-adjusted house prices in Dublin declined at their lowest annual rate since Q4 2008 at 15.1%
The average time for a property to go sale agreed is now 3 months in Dublin 5 months in Leinster, 7 months in Munster and 13 months in Connaught/ Ulster
Median asking price for 3-bed semis around the country continues to improve at €179,000
6
Counties Longford and Westmeath recorded the lowest asking price for a 3-bed semi during the quarter at €149,000
7
Wicklow, excluding Dublin, had the most expensive median asking price for a 4 bed semi at €360,000 in Leinster
8 9 10
Prices for 1-bed apartments have been falling by approximately €5,000 per quarter
Four of the top five counties with the highest vacant stock are located in the Border / West regions
During the boom years houses tended to sell above the asking price. The trend for the last few years has been for sales to close below the asking price. This gap should narrow as the demand/supply balance is amended
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 3
...The recent roller coaster ride has slowed down somewhat... While still contracting, the intensity of the fall in economic output has been much more moderate in 2010. Expectations for 2011 are suggesting that the rate of growth may be lower than expected some months ago. GNP fell by 2.1% in 2010 and GDP declined by 1%. Despite the continued weak year-on-year performance, some tentative green shoots have begun to show: over the last quarter of 2010, GNP increased by a respectable 2%, while GDP fell by 1.6% over the same period. Indeed, with the exception of Q1, GNP expanded in three of the four quarters of 2010 - this is the first time there has been three consecutive quarters of GNP growth since Q1 2008. The decline in Building and Construction output has shown the first signs of abating: while output fell by a massive 33.1% in 2010, by the last quarter of 2010 it had moderated to -3.1%. Personal consumption (-1.2%), Government expenditure (-2.2%) and Gross fixed capital formation (-27.8%) all remained weak in 2010. Exports alone grew by 9.4% in 2010, driven by strong performances from multinational companies in the pharmaceutical, computer and services sectors. It remains to be seen if the recent bank recapitalisation measures restore credibility to the Irish banking system and ultimately get credit flowing again.
85% of job losses in the year to Q4 were in the 20-34 age groups As the number of people in employment continues to fall, the key age groups for the First Time Buyer market are hit the hardest. The largest employment losses in the year to Q4 2010 occurred for the 20-24 year age group (-28,400) while a broadly similar decrease was recorded for those aged 25-34 (-26,100). These two age groups combined accounted for close to 85% of the total fall in employment -64,500) over the year. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 13.7% to 14.7% in the quarter to Q4 2010. Q1 2011 figures from the Live Register suggest that the rate stabilised at 14.7% in the first three months. Although the rate of decline in employment has slowed down somewhat, an increased participation in education and emigration have contributed to a steady decline in the labour force.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has signalled an interest rate increase in April, amid concerns about inflation in the Euro zone. Irish annual inflation stood at 2.2% in February 2011, at its highest since November 2008. Any increase in ECB rates (at 1% since May 2009) will affect all mortgage holders, including those with tracker products, and will
Consumer sentiment still shaky The KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index improved slightly in February. Consumers are still very cautious, particularly with respect to the current economic conditions. The opportunity to participate in the democratic process may have lifted spirits somewhat, notwithstanding the ever mounting requirements for bank funding, looming debt burdens and interest rate hikes. It is however doubtful whether this slight improvement in outlook will translate into property transactions. Loss of job security and earnings and continued difficulties with accessing credit plus impending interest rate hikes are likely to keep the housing market depressed for quite some time yet.
“
cause further hardship for those already struggling to keep up their repayments.
Consumers are still very cautious, particularly with respect to the current economic conditions.
“
Interest rate rise is imminent
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 4
Market Analysis
Annual rate of decline nationally highest since Q4 2009
The most recent trends in asking prices, based on mix-adjusted data, are perhaps not surprising, given conditions in the domestic economy. Further house price reductions have been recorded in Q1 2011 both in quarterly and annual terms. The annual rate of decline nationally accelerated to 13.8%, up from 13.1% in Q4 2010 and 12% in Q1 2010. This was the highest annual rate of decline since Q4 2009. The average asking price was €259,745 in Q1 2011, just 63% of where it was at the peak. Although there is limited economic data published to date for Q1, key factors continuing to dampen activity levels in the housing market comprise 1) the weakness in employment, 2) the fall in incomes, 3) increases in the cost of living and the difficulties accessing credit. With consumers focusing on reducing their debt levels and faced with the prospect of higher mortgage rates, further price reductions are likely over the course of 2011.
Average price Q1 2011
Summary of mix-adjusted asking price changes Q1 2011
% Change Q1 2011
Annual % change
% Change since peak
National
€259,745
- 4.1%
- 13.8%
- 37.3%
Dublin
€301,984
- 3.8%
- 15.1%
- 43.5%
New
€236,780
- 3.8%
- 12.8%
- 35.9%
Second Hand
€263,127
- 4.1%
- 13.9%
- 37.8%
New versus second hand Average mix-adjusted new house prices fell by 3.8% in the quarter and by 12.8%
Pace of decline: Dublin versus national
in the year to €236,780 in Q1 2011. The corresponding decline for second-hand properties was 4.1% and 13.9% respectively, generating a mix-adjusted house price of €263,127. Both new and second-hand prices are now 35.9% and 37.8% below where they were at during the peak.
Lowest rate of annual decline in Dublin since Q4 2008 Conversely in Dublin, average mix-adjusted asking prices were 15.1% lower in year-on-year terms in Q1 2011. Although a higher decline than the national average, it represented the lowest annual rate of decline in Dublin since Q4 2008. While the annual rate of decline remains in double digit territory, the moderating pace is a welcome development. The average mix-adjusted asking price in Dublin was €301,984 in Q1 2011, almost 57% of where it was at the peak.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 5
Asking prices nationally are down 37.3% since the peak
Mix-adjusted asking price index: Dublin versus national
Comparisons with the peak in house prices show that average mix-adjusted asking house prices were down by 37.3% nationally in Q1 2011. This figure compares with 38.3% based on transactions prices reported by the permanent-tsb/esri house price index up to Q4 2010. The corresponding figures for Dublin were 43.5% using mix-adjusted asking prices and almost 45% using transactions prices up to Q4 2010.
An analysis of median house prices by type nationally showed little difference between the price of a 2-bed apartment (€195,000) and a 3-bed terraced house (€190,000) in Q1 2011. The median prices for 1-bed apartments, at €160,000 nationally and €175,000 in Dublin, at around 4.5 to 5 times average earnings, have been falling by around €5,000 per quarter. The median price for a 4-bed semi detached property was almost 100% higher in Dublin than the State as a whole.
Summary of median house prices: Dublin versus national
“
Prices for 1-bed apartments have been falling by around €5,000 per quarter
“
House prices by type
Dublin
National
1 Bed Apt
€175,000
€160,000
Dublin Vs. National % difference + 9.4%
2 Bed Apt
€231,000
€195,000
+18.5%
3 Bed Terrace
€249,250
€190,000
+31.2%
3 Bed Semi
€285,000
€205,000
+39.0%
4 Bed Detached
€590,000
€300,000
+96.7%
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 6
Market Analysis
Price of 3-bed semis around 5 times average earnings The affordability of 3-bed semi-detached properties around the country has continued to improve. Based on median house prices, the data shows the national median asking price of a 3-bed semi was €179,000 in Q1 2011. This price is equivalent to around 5 times average earnings and compares with an earnings multiple of 5.7 one year previously. The biggest price falls in year-on-year terms were recorded in Westmeath (-24.7%), Meath (-22%) and Carlow (-18.5%) while prices in Cavan (-2.2%) and Roscommon (-4.4%), were less than 5% below their prices one year earlier. Prices in Cavan, Galway, Limerick and Roscommon were unchanged on the previous quarter, while median prices in Waterford were 1.5% higher in the quarter. The median asking price ranged from €149,500 in Longford
“
to €285,000 in Dublin.
3 bed semi: Median asking prices by county Q1 2011
Affordability of 3 bed semi detached properties around the country has continued to improve
“
Asking prices versus transactions prices
During the boom period when prices (and incomes) were rising and the number of buyers exceeded the number of sellers, transactions prices would have been significantly higher than asking prices, whereas now in recessionary times, asking prices are typically what vendors aspire to. As the market has adjusted downwards over the past four years and transactions have plummeted, asking prices have also had to adjust downwards. In today’s market characterised by oversupply in some locations and a lack of mortgage finance, transactions prices tend to be below asking prices as what buyers are willing to pay or can afford is much lower now than during the boom years. The gap should narrow, however, as sellers become more realistic and as the demand/supply balance is addressed.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 7
Market index prepared by Graham Neary, Technical Analyst 4 Bed Semi Median Price Q1 2011
% Change Q1 2011
Annual % Change
Dublin
€395,000
-4.82%
-12.22%
Meath
€235,000
-7.84%
-20.34%
Kildare
€268,000
-0.74%
-10.37%
Wicklow
€340,000
-4.23%
-14.89%
Longford
€175,000
-2.78%
-5.41%
Offaly
€225,000
-4.26%
-10.00%
Westmeath
€184,975
-5.13%
-20.27%
Laois
€192,500
-1.28%
-8.11%
Louth
€240,000
-9.43%
-14.29%
Carlow
€199,975
-6.99%
-21.58%
Kilkenny
€215,000
-12.24%
-15.69%
Wexford
€197,000
1.03%
-16.17%
Waterford
€235,000
-1.26%
-8.91%
Kerry
€230,000
-7.63%
-34.29%
Cork
€256,500
-5.00%
-13.93%
Clare
€185,000
-8.19%
-11.90%
Limerick
€220,000
1.38%
-15.38%
Tipperary
€185,000
-2.49%
- 5.13%
Galway
€246,250
-1.50%
-5.29%
Mayo
€188,750
-3.21%
-10.12%
Roscommon
€180,000
-2.70%
-9.99%
Sligo
€190,000
-1.30%
-13.64%
Leitrim
€180,000
-2.70%
-5.26%
Donegal
€169,000
0.00%
-47.60%
Cavan
€195,000
0.00%
-4.88%
Monaghan
€187,500
1.35%
-12.79%
Leinster
Munster
Connaught & Ulster
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 8
County Analysis 3 Bed Semi Index
% change in asking prices Q1 2011 Our county by county analysis of 3 bedroom semi detached properties shows the median changes in asking prices in each county. The median is the “middle” price. It can be thought of as the price of the house which is more expensive than exactly half of the other houses. We find that it is superior to the average in estimating the price of a typical house.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 9
Leinster Spotlight
Leinster Many of the counties of Leinster would have experienced rapid house price inflation during the housing boom in response to strong employment growth in the commuter towns and transport corridors radiating from Dublin.
Properties that went Sale Agreed in Q1 2011
As housing in Dublin became more unaffordable, significant investment in housing and other infrastructure took place in the surrounding counties of Kildare, Meath and Wicklow to accommodate the increase in housing demand. With the publication of the National Spatial Strategy in 2002 and in order to achieve more balanced regional development, the pattern of housing development spread to the outer Leinster counties of Louth, Longford, Offaly, Laois and Wexford where housing was less expensive than in the main urban areas. Many
Dublin South 4 Bed Semi Detached 5 Rossmore Avenue, Templeogue, Dublin 6
households chose to commute long distances to their place of work in Dublin just to get onto the housing ladder at a time when it seemed like the opportunity to own their own homes was moving out of their reach, as house prices in the main urban areas moved more and more into unaffordable territory.
Asking Price: €450,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 10 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/433187
Four years on since the market peaked, house prices in Leinster have fallen more or less in line with the rest of the country: by around 35% since the peak compared with a fall of 37.3% across the State as a whole. The most recent data on the price of 3-bed semi-detached houses in Q1 2011 shows a median asking price of €192,000 across the 12 counties of Leinster or €189,000 excluding Dublin. The corresponding median prices for 4-bed semidetached houses are €220,000 across Leinster or €215,000 excluding Dublin. There will be differences, however, across and within the individual counties. Looking at median prices across the individual counties in Q1 2011: Excluding Dublin, Wicklow had the most expensive 3-bed and 4-bed semi-detached properties at
Dublin North 3 Bed Semi Detached 2 Coolgreena Road, Beaumont, Dublin 9 Asking Price: €240,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 9 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/431989
€260,000 and €340,000 respectively. The lowest asking prices for 3-bed semi-detached properties were in Longford (€149,500) and Westmeath (€149,950). 9 of the 12 counties had prices below €200,000. 5 counties had asking prices for 4-bed semi-detached properties below €200,000, with the lowest price recorded in Longford (€175,000). The annual rate of decline in house prices remains very much in double digit territory, with Westmeath and Meath recording declines for 3-bed and 4-bed semis in excess of 20% in Q1 2011. In
Dublin North 4 Bed Semi Detached 33 Brian Avenue, Marino,Dublin 3 Asking Price: €250,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 2 Weeks View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/437477
respect of 4-bed semis, Carlow recorded the highest decline of 21.6%.
Kilkenny
On The Market
3 Bed Semi Detached 18 Hawthorn Avenue, Ardnore, Kilkennny City
Dublin
Asking Price: €145,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 2 Weeks
1 Bed Bungalow Bremore lodge, Balbriggan, Dublin Asking Price: €99,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/183149
Kildare 3 Bed Semi Detached 17 Moneen View, Athy, Co. Kildare Asking Price: €99,950 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/344574
Wicklow
Properties for under €100,000
Wexford 4 Bed End of Terrace 15 Beachview, Duncannon, Co. Wexford Asking Price: €169,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 2 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1272559
1 Bed Apartment The Mill, Baltinglass, Wicklow Asking Price: €68,500 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/183223
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 10
Dublin Spotlight
Around The Country: What’s happening in your area?
Dublin: Second hand residential stock available for sale is 7,100 North County Dublin
The seventh consecutive quarterly decline for this locality brought the asking price down by nearly €12,000 to €265,000. The total fall from the peak in Q4 2006 (€455,000) to current levels is 41.8%, a slightly bigger percentage drop
Dublin North City
than the other main subdivisions of Dublin.
Prices in this location recorded the highest quarterly decline of 6.8% in the latest quarter, reaching the lowest median asking price (€172,500) across all our urban locations. The annual decline was 25%, while the total decline since the peak is 56.3%, generating the most dramatic fall under each measure amongst our urban spotlights.
West County Dublin Like Dublin South, Dublin West also saw a marginal decline of just €1,000 in the median asking price to €229,000. With an annual drop of 8.4%, it also has the third lowest percentage decline over that time period. Prices have been declining for 15 consecutive quarters.
South County Dublin Dublin South recorded just a marginal decline in the latest quarter from €350,000 to €349,000. The percentage fall for the last four quarters is 7.9%, the mildest decline over that time period of all our city spotlight locations. Median prices in this locality are almost 40% below their peak in Q3 2006.
Dublin South City
Surprisingly, this location registered an increase in the median asking price in Q1 2011 of 2.8% to €241,500, the first quarterly increase for any urban spotlight location since Q4 2009. The percentage decline since the peak (€425,000, Q1 2006) is now 43.2%.
Median Price Q1 2011
% Change Q1 2011
Annual % change
% Change since peak
North
€265,000
- 4.2%
- 11.4%
- 41.8%
South
€349,000
- 0.3%
- 7.9%
- 39.8%
West
€229,000
- 0.4%
- 8.4 %
- 37.9%
City North
€172,500
- 6.8%
- 25.0 %
- 56.3%
City South
€241,500
2.8%
- 11.4 %
- 43.2%
Dublin Summary of median asking price changes Q1 2011
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 11
Connaught, Munster and Ulster When looking at one house type, the median prices across the individual counties often tend to be
Properties that went Sale Agreed in Q1 2011
less volatile than for the full basket of properties including all house types. While acknowledging that the annual rate of decline across all house types remains in double digit territory, the annual rate of change for three and four bedroom semi-detached properties in some counties is in single digits. The median price of 3 bed semi-detached properties in Tipperary declined by 7.7% over the year to
Cork West 5 Bed Detached Templemartin, Bandon, Cork West
just €180,000. The corresponding price for 4-bed semi-detached properties was marginally higher at €185,000, following a decline of just 5.1% over the year. Other counties reporting an annual decline in single digits for 3-bed semis include Cavan (-2.2%), Roscommon (-4.4%), Monaghan (-5.5%) and Leitrim (-7.4%).
Asking Price: €375,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 6 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1245183
After Cork, Waterford had the highest median price for 3 and 4 bed semi-detached properties at €198,000 and €235,000 respectively.
Waterford
Median prices in Connaught varied from €162,500 in Roscommon to €210,000 in Galway for 3 bed
4 Bed Detached Kilbree East, Cappoquin, Co. Waterford
semis, with the range for 4-bed semis between €180,000 in Leitrim and Roscommon and €246,250 in Galway. In respect of the Ulster counties, Donegal had the lowest prices for 3 and 4 bed semi-detached properties at €155,000 and €169,000 respectively. Prices for 3-bed semis were unchanged at €175,000
Asking Price: €295,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 5 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1255940
in Cavan, despite the fact that sales (and lettings) in the Border counties, notably Cavan, have been affected by concerns about job security in the Quinn Insurance Group.
Galway 4 Bed Terrace Main Street Ballygar, Co. Galway Asking Price: €100,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 11 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1020905
On The Market
Sligo
Mayo
3 Bed Semi Detached 225 Rusheen Crescent, Caltragh, Sligo
2 Bed Terrace 8 Esker Pines, Ballyhaunis, Co. Mayo Asking Price: €59,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/428050
Roscommon 3 Bed Semi Detached 14 Coillte Bo, Loughglynn, Roscommon Asking Price: €85,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/419354
Donegal 2 Bed Detached Baile Na Carraige, Tooban, Co. Donegal Asking Price: €90,000 View it at:http://www.myhome.ie/284741
Asking Price: €149,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 6 Weeks
Properties for under €100,000
Clare 3 Bed Semi Detached 12 Station View, Ennis, Co. Clare Asking Price: €155,000 Time to go Sale Agreed: 7 Weeks View it at: http://www.myhome.ie/1243812
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 12
Connaught, Munster and Ulster Spotlight
Around The Country: What’s happening in your area?
Galway City The median asking price for Galway City decreased by €10,000 to €239,000. The peak price was €450,000 in Q2 2006, the highest outside of Dublin North and Dublin South. After Dublin North Galway City has had the second highest rate of decline since the peak at almost 47%, amongst all our urban spotlights.
Galway City Median Price Q1 2011
€239,000
% Change Q1 2011
-4.0%
Annual % Change Q1 2011
-13.1%
% Change since peak
-46.9%
Average time to
Limerick City
go Sale Agreed in
After dropping by €15,000 in Q4 2010, median asking
Connaught & Ulster
prices for Limerick City have fallen by €5,000 in the latest
is now at 13 months
quarter to €195,000 and are now the second lowest prices across our urban spotlights. The total percentage decline of 31.6% from peak to current levels is also the lowest rate of decline across all our urban locations.
Limerick City Median Price Q1 2011
€195,000
% Change Q1 2011
-2.5%
Annual % Change Q1 2011
-18.7%
% Change since peak
-31.6%
Cork City Cork City experienced a fall of 2%, taking the median asking price down from €250,000 to €245,000. This is the lowest rate of decline since Q4 2009. Median asking prices in this location have not seen a quarterly increase since Q3 2006 and have fallen by 35.5% since that peak.
Average time to go Sale Agreed in Munster is now at 7 months
Cork City Median Price Q1 2011
€245,000
% Change Q1 2011
-2.0%
Annual % Change Q1 2011
-15.4%
% Change since peak
-35.5%
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 13
Vacant completed dwellings Longford and Leitrim have over three times the number of vacant completed dwellings per 1,000 of the population than in the State as a whole
Among the many factors influencing the housing market, the vacant stock issue across the State is likely to be a key factor influencing property prices in the medium-term. Locations with relatively high vacant stock levels are likely to take longer to recover than other locations where the vacant stock is more modest. The Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government’s survey of new vacant dwellings carried out in October 2010 concluded that there were 121,248 dwellings at different levels of completion. The largest group within this total comprised the number of new completed but vacant dwellings at 23,250, almost one-fifth of the total.
In an interesting analysis of the number of new completed dwellings that were vacant across the provinces, Leinster accounted for 54% of the total, which is in line with its share of the population in 2006. Munster’s share of the total completed and vacant dwellings (25%) was less than it’s population share (28%) while in Connaught and the three counties of Ulster, their respective shares were higher than their population shares.
The Provinces: Stock of vacant completed dwellings versus the population
Dwellings per 1,000 of population
Share of vacant completed dwellings
Share of population 2006
Leinster
5.48
54%
54%
Munster
4.86
25%
28%
Connaught
6.36
14%
12%
Ulster (part)
6.60
8%
6%
State
5.48
100%
100%
Connaught & Ulster above State average
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 14
Special Report Vacant Housing Stock
some interesting trends, notably: The number of completed dwellings that are vacant per 1,000 of the population ranges from just 1.8 in Waterford to 18.2 in Longford, compared with the State average of 5.48 dwellings. Longford and Leitrim have over three times the number of vacant completed dwellings per 1,000 of the population than in the State as a whole. Four of the top five counties with the highest vacant stock per 1,000 of the population are located in the Border/West regions: Leitrim, Cavan, Sligo and Roscommon.
“
Four of the top five counties with the highest vacant stock are located in the Border / West regions
“
However looking in more detail at the individual counties reveals
14 counties have stock levels per 1,000 of the population which are below the State average, with levels in Waterford, Limerick, Wicklow and Kildare at or below 3 dwellings, implying little or no major oversupply problem in these counties.
In Dublin, the average is 5.74 vacant dwellings but a further breakdown across the individual local authority areas shows that the completed but vacant stock levels in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown and Fingal were 7.61 and 6.32 per 1,000 of the population respectively.
Number of vacant completed dwellings per 1,000 of population across the 26 counties
These figures provide an indication of the relative position of each county just in terms of the completed and vacant stock alone. Before this stock can be disposed of and translated into actual property transactions, the market will need to see a restoration of confidence, mortgage credit and stability in house prices, i.e. a return to a more normal market.
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 15
Next MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q2 July 2011
INDICES
Q3 2005 Q1 2006
National
113.31
124.99
Q2 2006 132.89
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 136.58 137.57 138.16 136.82 138.57
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
136.30
134.35
132.29
138.80
136.50
134.64
132.90
130.23
Dublin
115.96
132.28
138.13
139.62
139.24
138.89
New
112.37
121.19
127.04
133.92
134.67
135.91
137.85
137.37
136.16
134.13
131.68
139.23
138.60
137.59
136.59
136.43
134.50
132.50
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
133.91
137.28
Q2 2006 6.32%
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 -0.72% -0.43% -0.30% 2.96% 1.28%
-0.21%
-1.43%
-1.53%
4.42%
1.08%
-0.28%
-0.25%
-0.06%
-1.66%
-1.36%
-1.29%
-2.01%
5.19%
4.82%
5.42%
0.56%
0.92%
1.43%
-0.35%
-0.88%
-1.49%
-1.83%
7.04%
6.48%
2.52%
1.42%
-0.46%
-0.73%
-0.73%
-0.12%
-1.42%
-1.48%
Q2 2006
Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 411373 408420 413133 409124 414374
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
397368
407565
401739
395597
506046
528415
534124
532642
531320
530979
522157
515053
508397
498194
324615
340272
358721
360714
364039
369248
367959
364713
359268
352707
382034
406803
417065
422990
421055
418002
414966
414468
408598
402545
125.75
2nd Hand
113.60
% Change
Q3 2005 Q1 2006
National
4.93%
7.04%
Dublin
4.79%
9.34%
New
4.14%
2nd Hand
5.08%
Standard Price
Q3 2005 Q1 2006
National
338827
373743
Dublin
443617
New
300978
2nd Hand
345114
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 16
About the Report
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: The Method The trends presented in this report are based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie with comparisons by quarter over the last six years. This represents the majority of properties for sale in Ireland from leading estate agents nationwide. The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniques. Our data is collected from quarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie. Our main National and Dublin indices have been constructed with a widely-used regression technique which adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each quarter. Since the supply of property in each quarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured. Our method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix. For detailed statistics at the local level, we also provide a selection of median asking prices broken down by county or by urban location.
INDICES
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009
National
125.80
122.08
114.59
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 100.81 104.25 97.41 112.90 108.08
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Dublin
123.81
118.40
109.58
107.03
100.90
96.76
92.97
88.77
93.63
90.59
86.86
84.95
82.07
78.94
New
128.00
124.59
114.83
114.14
110.07
105.95
101.34
2nd Hand
125.60
121.84
114.50
112.69
107.74
104.02
100.65
97.01
95.15
91.88
88.40
97.32
93.28
90.33
86.61
% Change
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
-3.88%
-3.24%
-4.11%
National
-4.91%
-2.96%
-6.13%
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 -3.30% -3.54% -3.37% -1.48% -4.27%
Dublin
-4.93%
-4.37%
-7.44%
-2.33%
New
-2.79%
-2.66%
-7.83%
2nd Hand
-5.21%
-3.00%
-6.02%
Standard Price Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 National 376180 365057 342666 Dublin 473612 452921 419205 New 342850 333730 307590 2nd Hand
381578
370139
347857
-5.73%
-4.11%
-3.91%
-4.52%
-4.30%
-3.39%
-3.82%
-0.61%
-3.56%
-3.74%
-4.35%
-4.27%
-1.91%
-3.44%
-3.79%
-1.59%
-4.39%
-3.45%
-3.24%
-3.31%
-4.15%
-3.16%
-4.12%
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
279970
270886
259745 301984
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 337603 323180 311727 301449 291278 409448
385993
370137
355657
305716
294835
283795
271437
316019
305767
342343
327321
339598
324985
313965
259845
254871
246108
236780
283395
274429
263127
295657
MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2011 | 17
Economic Analysis Annette Hughes [email protected]
Data Analysis Graham Neary [email protected]
Layout & Design Claire Hickey [email protected]
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