Natural Gas: A Comparative Energy Review
Natural Gas: A Comparative Energy Review
J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC POC March 31, 2010
Between 2000 and 2009 the Commission approved 15,000 miles of interstate pipeline
NorthernStar (1,300)
Tuscarora (96)
11. CIG (85,133,105) 12. TransColorado (250) 13. WIC (120,675,350,556) 14. Entrega (1,500) 15. Rockies Express West (1,800)
02) tar (1 s e u Q r ive R ) rn 86 Ke 35,8 (1
Northern Border (544,130)
Northern WBI Natural (80) (374) 14 Trailblazer 15 (324) 13
Northwest (191) 8
12
1. Islander East (285) 2. Iroquois (100,200) 3. Columbia (135) 4. Transcontinental (130,142) 5. Transcontinental (100) 6. Maritimes (418) 7. Tennessee (500) 8. Tennessee (136) 9. Texas Eastern (900) 10. Algonquin (325)
Guardian (750, 537)
ANR (194,220) TETCO (150) Vector (245,105)
Cheyenne Rockies Express Plains (560) East (1,800)
11
8
Dominion (700) 7
6 10
5 4
9 3 Columbia (172)
Midcontinent (1,500)
2
1
East Tennessee (510) East Tennessee (170) Transco (204,236,323) El Paso (502) CenterPoint (132) Southern/Magnolia (82) CenterPoint (132) Gulf South(1,700, 560) Elba Express (1,175) North El Paso (230,320,15 Trunkline (510) 0) Gulf Crossing (1,732) SCG Pipeline (190) Baja Center Point (1,237, 280) Cypress (500) Southeast Supply(1,140,175) Southern (500, (336,330) Natural (200) 2,700) Port Arthur (3,000) Florida Gas (270) Golden Pass (2,500) Southern Trails (120) Texas Gas (1,609) Transwestern (500)
TETCO (197)
Gulfstream (1,130, 155)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
76 storage projects totaling 850 Bcf of working gas
14.7 Bcfd capacity in the USA
4.8 Bcfd under construction in USA
Recoverable Natural Gas from Shale
New Natural Gas Fired Generation 1997 – 2007 268,860 MW
Fuel Sources for Power Generation 2008 • • • • •
Nuclear ‐ 20% Coal ‐ 48% Renewable (Wind/Solar) ‐ 1% Renewable (Hydroelectric) ‐ 6% Natural Gas ‐ 21%
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
No New Nuclear Generation Sites Between 2000 and 2007
Nuclear Time and Money • The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to complete. • The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW. • The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year 2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no long term storage.
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
New Coal Fired Generation 1997 – 2007 4,782 MW
Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) • S is the problem. • CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to humans in a concentration of 10‐11%. • To sequestrate CO2 – Many miles of pipe are needed. • Up to 23,000 miles of CO2 pipeline will be needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL) – Permanent, non‐cycling storage sites must be found. • Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent domain March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
New Renewable Generation 1997 – 2007 15,165 MW
Wind and Solar Energy Transmission and Land Use • Renewable sources are not near the market • Current regulatory regimes for siting electric transmission are poor • S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009 • Land use: 500 MW facility – Wind: 30,000 acres – Solar: 3,500 acres • DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW • 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn March 31, 2010
JME Energy Infra, LLC
Since 2000, 9 High Voltage (≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines have been built totaling 682 miles.
Transmission Projects
765 kV 345 kV DC Sources: FERC
Natural Gas Generation has dominated U.S. expansion of generation capacity
In the U.S., over 294,000 MW of new generation capacity has come online since 2000; 91% of which is natural gas fired.
Source: FERC
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
Gordon Gekko Moment: Uncertainty is Good • When it comes to Natural Gas ‐ legislative/regulatory uncertainty works to its advantage • Climate Bill unlikely to pass ‐ no carbon pricing • EPA Endangerment Finding under attack by both parties (Murkowski/Rockefeller) • Continued migration from coal to natural gas • 19 Bcfd to 35 Bcfd by 2035 March 31, 2010
Just the New Coal? • With new supply volumes available, how do you grow demand? • Transportation Sector offers the greatest potential • Every gallon of gasoline replaced ‐ 120 cubic feet of natural gas consumed • USA annual gasoline consumption ‐ 140 billion gallons March 31, 2010
10 by 30 • Need a target to measure progress – 10 Tcf for transportation by the year 2030 • 10 Tcf consumed for transportation would provide a market for new supplies • Would replace 60 percent of today’s gasoline demand • Reduce imports and carbon emissions March 31, 2010
Issues • Growing bias against fossil fuel including Natural Gas • Infrastructure fatigue – Oregon – Pennsylvania • Legislation introduced – Specter Bill (S. 3733) would require FERC to hold at least 1 public hearing before issuance of a permit affecting public or private land use in a locality – Bishop, et al., Bill (H.R. 6720) would establish a Commission to study what natural gas infrastructure is to be built and where March 31,2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
Opportunities • Infrastructure and supply ‐ cheapest Natural Gas of any non‐exporting country in the world • Uncertainty is Good • Transportation Sector is the next market • 10 by 30
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC POC March 31, 2010
Between 2000 and 2009 the Commission approved 15,000 miles of interstate pipeline
NorthernStar (1,300)
Tuscarora (96)
11. CIG (85,133,105) 12. TransColorado (250) 13. WIC (120,675,350,556) 14. Entrega (1,500) 15. Rockies Express West (1,800)
02) tar (1 s e u Q r ive R ) rn 86 Ke 35,8 (1
Northern Border (544,130)
Northern WBI Natural (80) (374) 14 Trailblazer 15 (324) 13
Northwest (191) 8
12
1. Islander East (285) 2. Iroquois (100,200) 3. Columbia (135) 4. Transcontinental (130,142) 5. Transcontinental (100) 6. Maritimes (418) 7. Tennessee (500) 8. Tennessee (136) 9. Texas Eastern (900) 10. Algonquin (325)
Guardian (750, 537)
ANR (194,220) TETCO (150) Vector (245,105)
Cheyenne Rockies Express Plains (560) East (1,800)
11
8
Dominion (700) 7
6 10
5 4
9 3 Columbia (172)
Midcontinent (1,500)
2
1
East Tennessee (510) East Tennessee (170) Transco (204,236,323) El Paso (502) CenterPoint (132) Southern/Magnolia (82) CenterPoint (132) Gulf South(1,700, 560) Elba Express (1,175) North El Paso (230,320,15 Trunkline (510) 0) Gulf Crossing (1,732) SCG Pipeline (190) Baja Center Point (1,237, 280) Cypress (500) Southeast Supply(1,140,175) Southern (500, (336,330) Natural (200) 2,700) Port Arthur (3,000) Florida Gas (270) Golden Pass (2,500) Southern Trails (120) Texas Gas (1,609) Transwestern (500)
TETCO (197)
Gulfstream (1,130, 155)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
76 storage projects totaling 850 Bcf of working gas
14.7 Bcfd capacity in the USA
4.8 Bcfd under construction in USA
Recoverable Natural Gas from Shale
New Natural Gas Fired Generation 1997 – 2007 268,860 MW
Fuel Sources for Power Generation 2008 • • • • •
Nuclear ‐ 20% Coal ‐ 48% Renewable (Wind/Solar) ‐ 1% Renewable (Hydroelectric) ‐ 6% Natural Gas ‐ 21%
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
No New Nuclear Generation Sites Between 2000 and 2007
Nuclear Time and Money • The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to complete. • The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW. • The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year 2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no long term storage.
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
New Coal Fired Generation 1997 – 2007 4,782 MW
Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) • S is the problem. • CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to humans in a concentration of 10‐11%. • To sequestrate CO2 – Many miles of pipe are needed. • Up to 23,000 miles of CO2 pipeline will be needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL) – Permanent, non‐cycling storage sites must be found. • Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent domain March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
New Renewable Generation 1997 – 2007 15,165 MW
Wind and Solar Energy Transmission and Land Use • Renewable sources are not near the market • Current regulatory regimes for siting electric transmission are poor • S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009 • Land use: 500 MW facility – Wind: 30,000 acres – Solar: 3,500 acres • DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW • 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn March 31, 2010
JME Energy Infra, LLC
Since 2000, 9 High Voltage (≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines have been built totaling 682 miles.
Transmission Projects
765 kV 345 kV DC Sources: FERC
Natural Gas Generation has dominated U.S. expansion of generation capacity
In the U.S., over 294,000 MW of new generation capacity has come online since 2000; 91% of which is natural gas fired.
Source: FERC
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
Gordon Gekko Moment: Uncertainty is Good • When it comes to Natural Gas ‐ legislative/regulatory uncertainty works to its advantage • Climate Bill unlikely to pass ‐ no carbon pricing • EPA Endangerment Finding under attack by both parties (Murkowski/Rockefeller) • Continued migration from coal to natural gas • 19 Bcfd to 35 Bcfd by 2035 March 31, 2010
Just the New Coal? • With new supply volumes available, how do you grow demand? • Transportation Sector offers the greatest potential • Every gallon of gasoline replaced ‐ 120 cubic feet of natural gas consumed • USA annual gasoline consumption ‐ 140 billion gallons March 31, 2010
10 by 30 • Need a target to measure progress – 10 Tcf for transportation by the year 2030 • 10 Tcf consumed for transportation would provide a market for new supplies • Would replace 60 percent of today’s gasoline demand • Reduce imports and carbon emissions March 31, 2010
Issues • Growing bias against fossil fuel including Natural Gas • Infrastructure fatigue – Oregon – Pennsylvania • Legislation introduced – Specter Bill (S. 3733) would require FERC to hold at least 1 public hearing before issuance of a permit affecting public or private land use in a locality – Bishop, et al., Bill (H.R. 6720) would establish a Commission to study what natural gas infrastructure is to be built and where March 31,2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
Opportunities • Infrastructure and supply ‐ cheapest Natural Gas of any non‐exporting country in the world • Uncertainty is Good • Transportation Sector is the next market • 10 by 30
March 31, 2010
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
