Natural Resources and Climate C Natural Resources
Natural Resources and Climate C Natural Resources and Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary: Change C in the Delaware Estuary: Assessing Vulnerability aand Fostering Adaptation Danielle K Kreeger
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary and Drexel University y
June 7 7, 2012
2007 2010 2011 2012
Recognize Problem
Assess Vulnerability & Prioritize Solutions
Translate & Engage E Track Change
3 case studies
http://www.delawareestuary.org/ scien nce_projects_climate_ready_products.asp
Questions How will climaate change here? How will chan nges impact resources? What are our options for making these reso these reso ources more resilient? ources more resilient? How do we prrioritize tactics? What if we do on’t take action? ( i (since every d dollar is precious) ll i i )
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
2025
2060
2100
as per Dr. Ray Najjar
Climate Momentum Mitigation – critically important for the long‐term ( (grandkids) dkid ) Difference between a rise of 2 veersus 4 degrees centigrade translates into a difference betw l d ff b ween local versus mass extinction l l
Adaptation – critically impo ortant for the short‐term (Kids) No amount of mitigation will stem m the 1 degree centigrade rise in temperatures expected over the next 25 years temperatures expected over the next 25 years – we must adapt we must adapt
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events More heavy events
Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events
Sea Level 0.6 ‐ 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) l l t local rates >> global l b l
Salinityy
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More in winter than in summer More heavy events
Sea Level 0.6 ‐ 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global
Salinity Storms ? Growing Season
Drinking Water • >16 million peop ple • Philadelphia – 1.4 million 1 • New York City New York City • Anticipated popu ulation growth of 83% by 2100 • 95% used for pow wer generation and industry • Increasing deman Increasing deman nds for industry e g shale drilling nds for industry, e.g. shale drilling
Drinking Water – Vulnerrability Drinking Water • Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise • Saltwater Intrusion • Storms and Flooding
Flooding / Storm Surge
Precipitation Changes
Salinity Rise
Drought
• Infrastructure Erosion • Degraded Sourcewater d d
Se ea Level Ri Rise
Drinking Water V l Vulnerabilities biliti
Wild Fires / Li ht i Lightening
Drinking Water – Adaptaation Options • Infrastructure protection and u p upgrades pg • New treatment & distribution system • Storm water control • Source water protection Wastewater disinfection • Wastewater disinfection • Protect river flow to offset salttwater
Drinking Water Tough Que estions • How can we maintain low sa alinity in the upper estuary?
• Will more reservoirs be neeeded and where? • Where should infrastructur h h ld i f e be protected? b d?
Coastal Wetlands Abundant Diverse Benefits: Flood Protection ood otect on Water Quality Fish and Wildlifee Natural Areas Carbon Capture
2012 State of th he Estuary Report Rapid loss of acreage an nd degraded wetland health
Coastal Wetland Vu ulnerability Freshwater TTidal Marshes • Salinity Rise • Barriers to Landward Migration • Tidal Range Tid l R
Salt Marshess Salt Marshes • Sea Level Risee • Storms and W Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration
Coastal Wetlan nds ‐‐ Future nds >25% 25% L Loss off tid d l wetlands dal tl d • Conversion of >40,000 acrres Uplands to Wetlands • Conversion of >100,000 ac Conversion of >100,000 accres Wetlands to Water cres Wetlands to Water • Loss of Benefits >> Acreagge Losses
2000 2000
2100
Coastal Wetlands – Adap ptation Options • Living shorelines • Buffers • Sediment management Structure Setbacks • Structure Setbacks
Wetland Tough Choices • Where will they be converted Where will they be converted to open water? • Where can we save them ? Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the best option?
• Strategic Retreat • Protect river flow to offset salttwater
Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation
Example: Delaware Estuary Living Shoreline Initiative
Kree eger
19
Bivalve Shellfish (oysteers, mussels, clams) 60 Species 60 Species Diverse
No mussels
8 adult mussels
Benefits: Water Quality ate Qua ty Fish and Wildlifee Stabilize Erosion Commercial Fish hery
Slides from Dick Neves, VA Tech
Nature’s s Benefits Bivalve Sh hellfish are “Ecosystem Ecosystem m Engineers Engineers”
M lB d Mussel Beds
DK 6/23/10
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Oyster Reefs Oyster Reefs
Kreeger
Shellfish Vulnerability
Imperiled
Freshwater Mussels
Marine Mussels
Losing Habitat
DRBC
Oysters
Salt water
Shellfish – Adaptation Op ptions Prop pagate Mussels Shellplanting for Oysters Shellplanting for Oysters
Living Shorelines
Monitoring & Monitoring & Research
Watter Quality & Flow w Management Riparian Restoration • Fish P Fish P Passage Passage Resto oration
Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation Headwaters to Sea 1. Non-tidal 2. Intertidal 3. Subtidal
Kree eger
24
Climate Change e + Other Changes •Marcellus Shale •Dredging g g
•Ecological Flows •Spills
Added Complexity Co
•Withdrawals
•Land Use Change •Development •Emerging Pollutan nts
Take Home Messages • Not all changes will be bad, but m many more losers than winners • Need Need a Paradigm Shift: a Paradigm Shift: “restore” restore” for the future rather than the past, for the future rather than the past and expect dynamic rather than static conditions • Adaptation requires investment Adaptation requires investment to protect lives and livelihoods t protect lives and livelihoods to • Proactive investment today will ssave money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services compounding of ecosystem services • Adaptation is underway but hampered by funding, especially here
Delaware Estuary Pilot
www Delaw www.Delaw wareEstuary org wareEstuary.org
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary and Drexel University y
June 7 7, 2012
2007 2010 2011 2012
Recognize Problem
Assess Vulnerability & Prioritize Solutions
Translate & Engage E Track Change
3 case studies
http://www.delawareestuary.org/ scien nce_projects_climate_ready_products.asp
Questions How will climaate change here? How will chan nges impact resources? What are our options for making these reso these reso ources more resilient? ources more resilient? How do we prrioritize tactics? What if we do on’t take action? ( i (since every d dollar is precious) ll i i )
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
2025
2060
2100
as per Dr. Ray Najjar
Climate Momentum Mitigation – critically important for the long‐term ( (grandkids) dkid ) Difference between a rise of 2 veersus 4 degrees centigrade translates into a difference betw l d ff b ween local versus mass extinction l l
Adaptation – critically impo ortant for the short‐term (Kids) No amount of mitigation will stem m the 1 degree centigrade rise in temperatures expected over the next 25 years temperatures expected over the next 25 years – we must adapt we must adapt
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events More heavy events
Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events
Sea Level 0.6 ‐ 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) l l t local rates >> global l b l
Salinityy
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More in winter than in summer More heavy events
Sea Level 0.6 ‐ 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global
Salinity Storms ? Growing Season
Drinking Water • >16 million peop ple • Philadelphia – 1.4 million 1 • New York City New York City • Anticipated popu ulation growth of 83% by 2100 • 95% used for pow wer generation and industry • Increasing deman Increasing deman nds for industry e g shale drilling nds for industry, e.g. shale drilling
Drinking Water – Vulnerrability Drinking Water • Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise • Saltwater Intrusion • Storms and Flooding
Flooding / Storm Surge
Precipitation Changes
Salinity Rise
Drought
• Infrastructure Erosion • Degraded Sourcewater d d
Se ea Level Ri Rise
Drinking Water V l Vulnerabilities biliti
Wild Fires / Li ht i Lightening
Drinking Water – Adaptaation Options • Infrastructure protection and u p upgrades pg • New treatment & distribution system • Storm water control • Source water protection Wastewater disinfection • Wastewater disinfection • Protect river flow to offset salttwater
Drinking Water Tough Que estions • How can we maintain low sa alinity in the upper estuary?
• Will more reservoirs be neeeded and where? • Where should infrastructur h h ld i f e be protected? b d?
Coastal Wetlands Abundant Diverse Benefits: Flood Protection ood otect on Water Quality Fish and Wildlifee Natural Areas Carbon Capture
2012 State of th he Estuary Report Rapid loss of acreage an nd degraded wetland health
Coastal Wetland Vu ulnerability Freshwater TTidal Marshes • Salinity Rise • Barriers to Landward Migration • Tidal Range Tid l R
Salt Marshess Salt Marshes • Sea Level Risee • Storms and W Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration
Coastal Wetlan nds ‐‐ Future nds >25% 25% L Loss off tid d l wetlands dal tl d • Conversion of >40,000 acrres Uplands to Wetlands • Conversion of >100,000 ac Conversion of >100,000 accres Wetlands to Water cres Wetlands to Water • Loss of Benefits >> Acreagge Losses
2000 2000
2100
Coastal Wetlands – Adap ptation Options • Living shorelines • Buffers • Sediment management Structure Setbacks • Structure Setbacks
Wetland Tough Choices • Where will they be converted Where will they be converted to open water? • Where can we save them ? Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the best option?
• Strategic Retreat • Protect river flow to offset salttwater
Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation
Example: Delaware Estuary Living Shoreline Initiative
Kree eger
19
Bivalve Shellfish (oysteers, mussels, clams) 60 Species 60 Species Diverse
No mussels
8 adult mussels
Benefits: Water Quality ate Qua ty Fish and Wildlifee Stabilize Erosion Commercial Fish hery
Slides from Dick Neves, VA Tech
Nature’s s Benefits Bivalve Sh hellfish are “Ecosystem Ecosystem m Engineers Engineers”
M lB d Mussel Beds
DK 6/23/10
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Oyster Reefs Oyster Reefs
Kreeger
Shellfish Vulnerability
Imperiled
Freshwater Mussels
Marine Mussels
Losing Habitat
DRBC
Oysters
Salt water
Shellfish – Adaptation Op ptions Prop pagate Mussels Shellplanting for Oysters Shellplanting for Oysters
Living Shorelines
Monitoring & Monitoring & Research
Watter Quality & Flow w Management Riparian Restoration • Fish P Fish P Passage Passage Resto oration
Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation Headwaters to Sea 1. Non-tidal 2. Intertidal 3. Subtidal
Kree eger
24
Climate Change e + Other Changes •Marcellus Shale •Dredging g g
•Ecological Flows •Spills
Added Complexity Co
•Withdrawals
•Land Use Change •Development •Emerging Pollutan nts
Take Home Messages • Not all changes will be bad, but m many more losers than winners • Need Need a Paradigm Shift: a Paradigm Shift: “restore” restore” for the future rather than the past, for the future rather than the past and expect dynamic rather than static conditions • Adaptation requires investment Adaptation requires investment to protect lives and livelihoods t protect lives and livelihoods to • Proactive investment today will ssave money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services compounding of ecosystem services • Adaptation is underway but hampered by funding, especially here
Delaware Estuary Pilot
www Delaw www.Delaw wareEstuary org wareEstuary.org
