Precious Shipping Buy (15E TP Bt26.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt14.00
Transport & Logistics February 2, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/in line
Net loss to continue in 1Q15E Maintain BUY for long term investment We maintain our BUY call for PSL with a TP of Bt26 (based on 1.6x P/BV, historical average) as we believe the share price currently trading at P/BV of 0.9x (‐1.0SD) has limited downside risk. Meanwhile, we believe the BDI will rebound in 2015E on the balancing of demand and supply.
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.555
0.546
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐71.2%
‐4.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
Weaker‐than‐expected 2014 result PSL reported a net loss of Bt80mn in 2014, lower than our expected net profit of Bt20mn The weaker‐than‐expected result was due mainly to the TC rate per day of US$8,096 being 4.9% below our expectation of US$8,510. Accordingly, the average BDI at 1,105 points (‐8% YoY) in 2014 was also lower than our estimate as the dry bulk industry continued to be pressured by the global economic slowdown, especially with regard to demand from China, which accounts for around 40‐50% of bulk ship demand. PSL’s fleet stood at 44 vessels as of Dec‐14, with six vessels having been received in 2014.
PSL.BK/PSL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,039.52
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
15.00/445.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/42.72
52 week High / Low (Bt)
29.75/13.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
2,350.00 6.39
Estimated free float (%)
39.17
Beta
1.02
URL
www.preciousshipping.com
CGR
Note: An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a member of PSL’s board.
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Earnings in 4Q14 improved qoq PSL’s earnings in 4Q14 improved qoq to a net loss of Bt20mn, vs. a net loss of Bt147mn in 3Q14, owing to the seasonal pattern. In 4Q14, PSL’s TC rate per day stood at US$8,032, ‐5% YoY +22% QoQ, in line with the average BDI, which stood at 1,120 points, ‐40% YoY, +18% QoQ. Expect another net loss in 1Q15E, but should report net profit in 2Q15E We believe PSL is likely to report another net loss in 1Q15E as BDI in 1Q15 QTD stands at 725 points, ‐47% YoY and ‐35% QoQ. The BDI is likely to weaken until the Chinese New Year (long holidays) and subsequently rebound, peaking in May after industrial activities in China resume. Maintain net profit estimates in 2015‐16E We maintain our estimated earnings turnaround of PSL in 2015‐16E with net profit of Bt168mn and Bt544mn, respectively. In our view, we believe the BDI will rebound in 2015E but the rebound may not be significant (+5% YoY in our assumption to 1,160 points). Based on PSL’s data, dry bulk supply increased by 4.8% in 2014 and it is expected to grow around 4‐5% in 2015‐16E, respectively. Meanwhile, the World Bank expects the global economy to grow by 3‐3.3% in 2015‐16E with global demand for dry bulk growing around 2x global GDP based on historical data. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 3,499 141 0.14 (159) (0.15) n.m. 0.40 13.93 2012 n.m. 18.41 1.00 2.86 (1.07) 49.48
2013 3,869 528 0.51 (421) (0.40) n.m. 0.40 15.03 2013 n.m. 18.04 0.93 2.86 (2.80) 40.53
2014 4,585 (80) (0.08) (76) (0.07) n.m. 0.20 14.70 2014 n.m. 16.17 0.95 1.43 (0.49) 74.44
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2015E 5,350 168 0.16 168 0.16 n.m. 0.20 14.75 2015E 86.40 14.25 0.95 1.43 1.10 127.56
2016E 6,705 544 0.52 544 0.52 223.19 0.37 14.91 2016E 26.73 10.77 0.94 2.62 3.53 111.43
Figure 1: Freight forward agreement Capesize Current 10,930 1Q15 11,400 2Q15 12,800 3Q15 n.a. 4Q15 13,500 Note* As of 2/2/15
Panamax n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Supramax 7,600 7,000 7,600 7,550 8,500
Figure 2: PSL’s historical P/BV Band Handysize 5,900 5,700 6,400 6,300 6,975
Source: Bloomberg Figure 3: 4Q14 Earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit SG&A expenses EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Forex gain (loss) Other extra items Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q13 1,165 184 (79) 401 (108) 5 7 69 70 (6) 0.07
3Q14 1,096 (18) (64) 243 (107) 0 1 40 (147) (187) (0.14)
4Q14 1,254 129 (46) 427 (109) 1 5 0 (20) (25) (0.02)
% YoY 7.6 (29.9) (41.8) 6.3 0.5 (76.6) (25.6) (100.0) (129.1) 329.3 (129.1)
% QoQ 14.4 (823.6) (27.5) 75.9 1.6 675.2 370.3 (99.9) (86.2) (86.5) (86.2)
2013 3,869 341 (330) 1,149 (459) 11 13 935 528 (421) 0.51
2014 4,585 590 (254) 1,603 (425) 5 4 (8) (80) (76) (0.08)
% YoY 18.5 72.9 (22.8) 39.6 (7.3) (52.1) (67.6) (100.8) (115.1) (81.9) (115.1)
15.8 34.4 (0.5) 5.1 1.0 0.6 15.0 (0.2)
(1.6) 22.1 (17.1) 1.5 (0.8) 0.8 14.5 (4.9)
10.3 34.0 (2.0) 0.9 0.8 0.8 14.7 (0.7)
8.8 29.9 (10.9) 5.1 0.0 0.6 15.0 (2.8)
12.9 35.0 (1.7) 0.9 0.8 0.8 14.7 (0.5)
Source: PSL, KT ZMICO Research Figure 4: PSL’s TC rate vs. market Handysize
Supramax
Source: PSL REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 5: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Seasonality
Source: PSL
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.