Nordic H2 Energy Foresight
Nordic H2 Energy Foresight – Future Expectations to Hydrogen Energy Systems in the Nordic Countries Tiina Koljonen1, Esa Pursiheimo1, Birte Holst Jørgensen, Per Dannemand Andersen2, Annele Eerola1, Torsti Loikkanen1, E. Anders Erikson3 1 Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1606, FIN-02044 VTT, Finland 2 Risø National Laboratory, P.O. Box 49, DK-4000, Roskilde, Denmark 3 Swedish Defense Research Agency, SE-17290 Stockholm, Sweden
SUMMARY The paper presents the results from the Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight. The objective of the project was to illustrate the prospects of hydrogen energy technologies, applications and markets, and to analyse the implications in the Nordic context up to 2030. During the project, key hydrogen related technologies were prioritized by Nordic and international experts. The technologies considered for hydrogen production were reforming of natural gas, electrolysis with wind power and biomass gasification. The examination of transport applications focused on hydrogen city buses and new private cars. In stationary applications, fuel cell systems were considered the most feasible technology for centralized and decentralized heat and power production as well as for APS/UPS systems. The context for envisioning the introduction of hydrogen in the Nordic energy systems was set by three ambitious but realistic “big visions”. In these visions, the share of hydrogen in the Nordic energy system by 2030 was estimated to be 6-18% in transport sector and 3-9% in stationary applications. The consequences of realizing the visions were analysed using the linear programming method. A model of a potential Nordic hydrogen energy system was first constructed. The market sizes, investment costs and total costs of the assumed Nordic energy systems were then estimated with the help of the model.
1 Introduction Hydrogen as an energy carrier has been considered to contribute to the challenges of future energy system: security of supplies and climate change. The development of a hydrogen economy, with hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources, is a long term objective of the European research agenda. Its potential for turning renewable energy such as wind and solar power into storable energy commodity makes it attractive
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for the future energy system in Europe. To make the hydrogen economy a reality in the long run, various options and transition paths should be systematically analysed. A comprehensive systems analysis with the widely used “bottom-up” technical-economic model MARKAL is planned by the IEA Hydrogen Coordination Group to take place in 2005. In the integrated EU project HyWays (www.hyways.de), the European hydrogen energy roadmap will be developed and regional hydrogen supply options and energy scenarios are analysed with MARKAL as well. This paper gives an overview of the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight with a special emphasis on the systems analysis and assessment of technological alternatives of Nordic hydrogen energy system. The main part of the paper focuses on the model description and scenario calculations including implications of the envisioned future development in terms of costs and market sizes. The inputs of scenario calculations are reported including a short description of the existing Nordic energy system. Finally, the conclusions on the scenario calculations of Nordic hydrogen systems are discussed.
2 Objectives and design of the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight The Nordic H2 Energy Foresight exercise was launched January 2003 by 16 project partners from academia, industry, energy companies and associations from all five Nordic countries. The Nordic Energy Foresight has the following objectives: To develop socio-technical visions for a future hydrogen economy and explore pathways to commercialisation of hydrogen production, transport, storage and utilisation To contribute as decision support for companies, research institutes and public authorities in order to prioritise R&D and to develop effective framework policies. To develop and strengthen scientific and industrial networks. The project has centered on a sequence of four interactive workshops: Scenario Workshop, Vision Workshop, Roadmap Workshop and Action Workshop. Expert judgments and discussions in these workshops are assisted and challenged by formal quantitative systems analysis and technology assessment. The Scenario Workshop discussed the external conditions around the hydrogen society. General issues that cannot be affected by a hydrogen technology policy but are likely to affect introduction of H2 Energy in the Nordic system were considered. The scenario workshop produced three scenario sketches for Nordic H2 energy introduction (see Eriksson, 2003): B – Big Business is Back is a globalised economy dominated by US multinationals and US big business-oriented policy approaches. Major physical investments are not particularly helped by the prevailing quarter-to-quarter capitalism. There is very little interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are moderate. However, H2 energy is still believed to be a likely component in future energy systems. E – Energy Entrepreneurs and Smart Policies is a globalised economy dominated by entrepreneurs and venture capitalists, and with policy actors apt at harnessing the power
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of innovation for societal purposes. The energy sector is characterised by a tendency towards decentralisation. There is some interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are moderate. P – Primacy of Politics is a Europe-centric economy characterised by co-operation between governments and big business and with a great interest in large-scale investment in energy and transport systems. There is some interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are high due to security-of-supply problems and an important driver for energy sector change. Combining the above three first-period (2005-2015) scenarios with second-period (20152030) developments (1. “hydrocarbon security-of-supply problems”, 2. “undisputable CO2 problems”, 3. “a smooth path to the future”), we got 9 scenarios (see Figure 1). Scenarios B3, E1 and P2 were chosen to form the framework for the subsequent work.
Developments 2015-30
1. Hydrocarbon security-ofsupply problems
2. Undisputable CO2 problems
3. A smooth path to the future
External scenarios 2003-15 B – Big Business Is Back
E – Energy Entrepreneurs and Smart Policies
B3 Big vision 6% E1 Big vision 15%
P – Primacy of Politics
P2 Big vision 18%
The colour indicates the ease of Nordic H2 introduction: green – easy yellow – intermediate red – difficult “Big Vision” indicates hydrogen’s share of the total Nordic energy system in 2030, except for consumption in industrial sector.
Figure 1. The external scenarios produced on the basis of the scenario workshop. At the Vision Workshop, the experts discussed hydrogen technology visions in the Nordic context and issues that can be affected by Nordic actors. Preliminary focusing was made on the most important issues – those with the highest feasibility today and the largest future Nordic market potential. Based on the assessment, the most interesting of the 66 hydrogen technology visions were selected (see Figure 2). For hydrogen production, the main energy source was believed to be natural gas over the next 25 years – especially in the B3 scenario. In the other two scenarios, natural gas might play a smaller but still important role. Renewable energy sources available for hydrogen production in the Nordic countries over the next 25 years are wind power, biomass, geothermal and hydro power. Most of the Nordic countries’ hydro resources are exploited by now, and only remote Iceland and Greenland have non exploited feasible resources. Only Iceland has geothermal resources. Nuclear energy is expected to play an important role in Finland, which could be used for hydrogen production as well. In the Vision Workshop, the energy sources for hydrogen production by 2030 in the three scenarios were settled by 2030 to: Scenario B3: Scenarios E1 & P2:
Natural gas: 70%; Renewable (and nuclear): 30% Natural gas: 50%; Renewable (and nuclear): 50%
The participating experts were also asked to assess an ambitious but realistic “big vision” for hydrogen by 2030. Hence, hydrogen’s share of the total Nordic energy system by 2030 was assessed as follows:
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Scenario B3: Scenario E1: Scenario P2:
6%-7% 14%-16% 16%-19%
6% 15% 18%
5 118
Techncal feasibility today (2003)
112 4
3 215 2
111322 202 201323 324 205 204 306 301 206 212 119 320 307 314 312 209 311 319 315 214 302 102 308 317 114 203 313 207210 123116 104 115 318 325 110 309 122 326 321 101 303 304 310 120 113 107 305103 213 105106 108 109 211 316 117 208
1
0 0
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Nordic Market Potentials 2030
4
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111: Wind power for H2 112: H2 from reform of natural gas 118: Energy production from RE 119: Gasification of biomass 202: H2 driven FC/electric city buses 203: H2 FC/electric drives in new private cars 204: H2 FC/electric drives for small special vehicles (fork-lifters, golf cars) 205: Pressurised tanks for H2 in transport 206: Storage of H2 as methane or methanol for transport 209: Methane driven FC/electric engines for ships 216: FC in fleets/public transport/taxi 301: Natural gas driven FC for domestic heat & power 310: ICT-based flexible controlling 322: Decentralised CHP plants 323: Power sources for mobile communication 324: Market opportunities for portable electronics
Figure 2. Ranking of hydrogen technology visions in average over scenarios – based on the vision workshop. The Roadmap Workshop outlined the sequence of implementation and mutual interdependence of the hydrogen technology visions from today until 2030. The experts discussed the business opportunities for Nordic equipment industry and energy market opportunities for the energy companies in the Nordic countries. This was carried out for each of the three areas (see Dannemand Andersen 2004): 1. Production and production related transmission/distribution of hydrogen; 2. Hydrogen used in the transport sector (including related distribution and retail); and 3. Stationary use of hydrogen (including related distribution and retail) The Action Workshop discussed the actions needed to overcome barriers and to realize the Nordic hydrogen energy visions and roadmaps. Focus was on the above listed three development areas. In addition, generic cross-cutting issues and conditions as well as possibilities utilizing new business opportunities were discussed (see Eerola, 2004). The Systems Analysis was carried out to analyse technological and economical feasibility of different hydrogen technologies in different scenarios. The method for scenario calculations and the main results are discussed in the following sections. A web-site – www.h2foresight.info – informs on ongoing hydrogen related activities, both in the Nordic countries and elsewhere and publishes results generated during and after the foresight process. The entire Foresight process has been described in more detail in earlier project reports and conference papers (Dannemand Andersen et al, 2005; Eerola et al, 2004). Finally, an evaluation of the foresight will be made on July 2005 by the end of the project.
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3 The systems analysis of the Nordic H2 Energy 3.1 The Nordic Hydrogen Energy Model During the project, a simplified technology based hydrogen energy model was created with linear programming method to analyse different hydrogen energy scenarios and pathways in the Nordic environment. The model includes hydrogen based technologies only, which makes it easy to use. The markets (i.e. H2 demand, market prices of fuels and electricity, CO2-tax, etc.) are specified by the user. The created model is a representation of the flows of energy (energy carriers) and technological alternatives in the hydrogen energy system. With the help of the model the analysis of least-cost strategies for achieving hydrogen energy and policy targets may be carried out. Annual costs are accumulated into the milestone years by linearisation and discounting, and the total cost (i.e. real cost) is minimised by using the linear programming method. The total cost includes all the investment and operating costs from the present to the final year of the scenario specified by the user. The energy and hydrogen balances of the model ensure that the demands of electricity, heat and transportation fuel will be covered. The necessary plant capacity to maintain these balances is obtained by investments to a new capacity. The representation of the Nordic hydrogen energy model is shown in the Figure 3. The input of the model for different milestone years includes: • Hydrogen energy demand for electricity, heat and transportation energy (% of the total demand) • Division of the hydrogen demand between centralized and decentralized demands • Market prices for fuels and electricity • Cost data (investment, operating) • Technical data (efficiencies, loss factors, life times, availability) • Economical data (discount rate) • Policy measures (investment subsides, CO2-tax).
Large Scale Natural Gas Pipeline
Renewable Electricity Production EL
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Decentralized H2 Fuel Demand
Decentralized Heat Demand
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Decentralized Natural Gas Pipeline Connected
Figure 3. Representation of the Nordic hydrogen energy systems model.
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3.2 Description of the Nordic energy system and its future perspectives The Nordic countries have a wide diversity of primary energy sources, which is shown in Figure 4. In electricity production, the share of hydropower is more than 55%. The share of wind power is about 2%, which is mainly produced in Denmark. In addition to renewable energy sources, Norway and Denmark have a considerable production of oil and natural gas. International electricity grids are well developed in the Nordic countries and allow for transmission over long distances. Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden form a common electricity market area with the Nord Pool power exchange. Connections of electricity also exist to Germany, Russia and Poland. The natural gas network is well developed only in Denmark. In Finland and Sweden, the network covers the southern part of the country. In Norway, onshore natural gas grid practically does not exist. In the Nordic countries, industrial energy consumption is large due to high energy intensity in, for example, pulp and paper and metal industries. Because of cold climate, the share of space heating is high in overall energy consumption. However, the overall efficiency in energy production is high, since more than 80% of thermal power is produced in combined heat and power plants (CHP). Since 1990, total electricity consumption has risen by an average 1.2% annually (Swedish Energy Agency, 2003). The total energy demand in the Nordic region was estimated to grow about 7% from 2002 until 2030 in the Nordic region (Eurelectric 2002, EU 2004) as shown in the Figure 5. The highest increases were assumed in consumption of electricity (18%) and transportation fuels (12%) (Koljonen & Pursiheimo, 2004). 2500
6000 Total energy consumption, PJ
Total energy consumption, PJ
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0 Denmark Oils total Peat
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Coal & coke Hydro power
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2025
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Figure 4. Total energy consumption and primary Figure 5. Estimated energy consumpenergy sources in the Nordic area in 2002. tion in the Nordic area until 2030.
3.3 Input values for the scenario calculations In energy production, the changes in the existing systems are very slow due to long life times of generating plants. Also, hydrogen as an energy carrier would compete with other sustainable energy systems. In the assessment of external scenarios, it is assumed that the role of hydrogen as an energy carrier would be minor in industry. Therefore, future hydrogen demand in the Nordic area is only divided into electricity generation, space heating and transport use. The share of hydrogen in transportation sector is assessed as in “big visions” by 2030. In the other two sectors, i.e. in stationary applications, it is assumed to be approximately half of the “big visions”. It is important to emphasize that the aim of these ambitious Nordic hydrogen visions is to set out
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challenges and not to predict what may likely happen. The technologies included in the scenario calculations were selected according to the result of the roadmap exercise. In the model, the H2 demand is also divided into centralized and decentralized hydrogen demands (see figure 3). The shares in 2005-2030 were set according to the expert judgments to 60%-70% for centralized demand, 10%15% for decentralized demand along natural gas pipeline and 20%-25% for decentralized demand without natural gas pipeline. The energy sources for hydrogen production were settled in the Vision Workshop, as discussed in chapter 2. The detailed description of the technical and economical data including investment costs, operating costs, efficiencies, life times and availabilities are given in the final report of systems analysis (Koljonen et al. 2005). For the ‘base case’ calculations we have selected the discount ratio of 5%. All the cost data is based on 2003 euros. The investment costs of fuel cells and electrolysis were assumed to be subsided in the scenarios E1 and P2. Renewable energy sources were also favoured in these scenarios due to fuel tax for natural gas. Natural gas price level follows the price forecast by International Energy Agency (IEA, 2002). The biomass prices are based on the estimates for forest residues in Finland including transportation cost for 100 km. It should be noted, that biomass is a local energy source and the price level may vary a lot between Nordic countries. For electricity, two price levels were assumed; spot market price and higher price level for electricity produced from renewable energy sources. The market price estimates of electricity are based on VTT’s calculations with stochastic dynamic market price model of the Nordic market area (Koljonen & Savolainen, 2004). Renewable electricity prices are based on the production cost expectations of off-shore wind power. Table 1. Assumed fuel and electricity prices, investment supports and fuel taxes for the milestone years 2005, 2015 and 2030. Scenario B3
Scenario E1
Scenario P2
Natural gas (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
14,0/13,5/15,0
14,0/12,5/13,51)
14,0/16,0/19,5
Biomass (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
10/14/20
10/14/20
10/14/20
Electricity (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
23/29/50
23/29/50
23/29/50
Renewable electricity (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
46/39/32
46/39/32
46/39/32
Investment subsidy (2005/2015/2030), %
0/0/0
50/40/0
50/40/0
Fuel tax (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
8/0/0
8/9/10
8/9/10
1)
IEA price forecast (IEA 2002)
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3.4 Scenario results of the Nordic hydrogen energy system Figure 6 shows the total costs for the three scenarios and the hydrogen shares assumed for transportation sector. For stationary applications, the hydrogen share is half of the shares presented in figure 6. Figure 7 shows the investment costs for hydrogen production, hydrogen infrastructure and for heat and power production. It should be noted that the selection of discount ratio has a remarkable effect on the total costs. For example, the decrease in discount ratio to 3% increased the total costs about 35% in 2020 and 60% in 2030. With the model assumptions, the investments in the hydrogen infrastructure seem to be the highest.
16000 14000
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45000
Figure 6. Total costs (in million €) and hydro- Figure 7. Investment costs (in million €) gen shares for the transportation sector. in energy production, hydrogen production and hydrogen distribution. Table 2 shows the shares of steam reforming, steam reforming with carbon capture, electrolysis and biomass gasification. According to the result of the roadmap exercise, carbon capture would not be available before 2010. Table 2 shows also the shares of fuel cells and gas engines for combined heat and power production (CHP) and fuel cells for electricity production only. Table 2. Hydrogen production (MW) and energy production (MW) with different technologies for the milestone years 2005, 2015 and 2030 for the scenarios B3, E1 and P2. Scenario B3
Scenario E1
Scenario P2
Steam reforming (2005/2015/2030), MW
20/300/800
40/500/2000
40/1800/2200
Steam reforming with CO2 capture (2005/2015/2030), MW
0/100/400
0/1000/7200
0/300/9300
Electrolysis, MW
5/100/400
5/200/1100
5/300/1300
Biomass gasification, MW
30/400/1300
30/1400/4900
30/2100/4400
CHP fuel cell, MW
10/300/2100
10/700/5100
10/1200/6100
CHP gas engine, MW
4/90/0
4/60/200
4/80/200
Fuel cell, MW
3/90/200
3/60/500
3/90/600
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To fulfil the “big visions” energy demand for hydrogen energy in the Nordic transport sector, about 0.5-2 million hydrogen vehicles would be needed in 2020 and about 1-4 million hydrogen vehicles in 2030. The number fuelling stations needed in 2020 is estimated to 500-2000 and in 2030 to 1000-4000, respectively. These scenarios for hydrogen supply per station are based on the assumption that 50% of the vehicles are ICE-powered and 50% are equipped with a fuel cell drive train (HyNet 2004). The number of passenger cars totaled 8.2 million in 2002 in the Nordic countries (Eurostat 2004) and the total number of road vehicles was 9.6 million, respectively. According to EU scenario (EU 2004), the annual percentual change in passenger and freight transport activity could be approximately 1-2%. This means that it is very unlikely that the number of hydrogen vehicles would reach our “big visions”.
4 Conclusions In our work, the technical and economical potential of hydrogen society in the Nordic countries as well as the competitiveness of the hydrogen based systems were analysed with the help of the linear optimization method. Because hydrogen technology is a rapidly developing area, the most challenging task in the modelling work was assessing and gathering the data. Despite of huge amount of information found from the literature, many of the inputs have a great uncertainty, especially in the longer term. The scenario calculations indicate that the highest uncertainty is related to the energy losses of the whole hydrogen energy system. The selection of discount ratio has a remarkable effect on the total costs. Compared to the investments in the hydrogen production and stationary applications for energy production, the investments in the hydrogen infrastructure seem to be the highest. However, the investment costs of hydrogen infrastructure have high uncertainty also. In our scenario calculations, biomass gasification and steam reforming seem to be the most competitive technologies for hydrogen production. The competitiveness of biomass gasification is greatly affected by biomass fuel price, which is a local energy source. Electrolysis seems to be competitive in decentralized systems, if the electricity price is low enough. In our scenario calculations, CHP fuel cells seem to be the most competitive in the long term for energy production. With the scenario assumptions, the approximated Nordic market sizes in 2030 for the base three basic scenarios varied from 1000 M€ to 3000 M€ for hydrogen production, from 1000 to 4000 M€ for stationary applications and from 4000 M€ to 12 000 M€ for hydrogen transmission. In 2020, about 0.5-2 million hydrogen vehicles and in 2030 about 1-4 million hydrogen vehicles would be needed to fulfil the “big visions” for hydrogen energy in the Nordic transport sector. The number fuelling stations needed in 2020 was estimated to 500-2000 and in 2030 to 1000-4000 respectively. The analysis of competitiveness of hydrogen systems in the Nordic environment compared to other sustainable energy applications would need more detailed and comprehensive systems analysis. This could be done with larger bottom-up systems models, like MARKAL or TIMES. However, these models need detailed regional information of the existing energy systems, which makes the input database very large. Also, the type of technical and economical data on hydrogen based technologies that were used in this study should be defined for the other competing future energy systems too. Compiling detailed technology roadmaps and systems analysis are challenging tasks for a technological area that is undergoing rapid development, especially when there is
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an additional regulatory uncertainty caused by unpredictable political decisions. The foresight process offered good opportunities in identifying and validating data to the modelling work. This process can be further optimised by more detailed and comprehensive studies and analysis, which again should be validated by the key stakeholders.
5 REFERENCES Dannemand Andersen, P., Holst-Jørgensen, B., Eerola, A., Koljonen, T., Loikkanen, T. & Eriksson, E.A. (2005): Building the Nordic Research and Innovation Area in Hydrogen - Summary Report, January 2005. ISBN 87-550-3401-2. Available on website www.h2foresight.info (ISBN 87-550-3402-0). Eerola, A. (2004). Nordic Action Report - November 2004. ISBN 87-550-3437-3. Available on website www.h2foresight.info. Eerola, A., Loikkanen, T., Holst Jørgensen, B., Dannemand Andersen, P. & Eriksson, E.A. (2004). Nordic H2 Energy Foresight – Complementary Contribution of Expert Views and Formal Analyses. A paper presented in the EU-US Scientific Seminar “New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods”, Seville, May 1314, 2004. Available on website www.h2foresight.info EU (2004). European energy and transport http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/index_en.html
–
Trends
to
2030.
Eurelectric (2002). EURPROG Network of Experts. 2002. Statistics and prospects for the European Electricity sector (1980 – 1990, 2000 – 2020). 30th edition, Eurelectric, July 2002. Report n:o 2002-030-0354. Eurostat (2004). European Union. Energy & Transport in Figures 2004. Available on website http://europa.eu.int/comm/dgs/energy_transport/ Holst Jørgensen, B. (2003). H2 R&D Activities in the Nordic Countries – October 2003. ISBN 87-550-3432-2. Available on website www.h2foresight.info HyNet (2004). Towards a European hydrogen Energy Roadmap. Available on www.hynet.info IEA 2002. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2002. OECD/IEA, Paris, France. ISBN 92-64-19835-0. Koljonen, T., Pursiheimo, E. Gether, K. & Jørgensen K. (2005). Systems Analysis and Assessment of Technological Alternatives for H2 Energy Foresight – January 2005. ISBN 87-550-3434-9. Available on website www.h2foresight.info Koljonen, T. & Pursiheimo, E (2004). Nordic Energy Basics – January 2004. ISBN 87550-3435-7. Available on website www.h2foresight.info Koljonen, T. & Savolainen, I. The impact of the EU emissions trading directive on energy and steel industries in Finland. In: E.S.Rubin, D.W.Keith and C.F.Gilboy (Eds.), Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme, Cheltenham, UK, 2004. www.ghgt7.ca Swedish Energy Agency (2003) The Electricity market 2003. Available on website www.stem.se
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SUMMARY The paper presents the results from the Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight. The objective of the project was to illustrate the prospects of hydrogen energy technologies, applications and markets, and to analyse the implications in the Nordic context up to 2030. During the project, key hydrogen related technologies were prioritized by Nordic and international experts. The technologies considered for hydrogen production were reforming of natural gas, electrolysis with wind power and biomass gasification. The examination of transport applications focused on hydrogen city buses and new private cars. In stationary applications, fuel cell systems were considered the most feasible technology for centralized and decentralized heat and power production as well as for APS/UPS systems. The context for envisioning the introduction of hydrogen in the Nordic energy systems was set by three ambitious but realistic “big visions”. In these visions, the share of hydrogen in the Nordic energy system by 2030 was estimated to be 6-18% in transport sector and 3-9% in stationary applications. The consequences of realizing the visions were analysed using the linear programming method. A model of a potential Nordic hydrogen energy system was first constructed. The market sizes, investment costs and total costs of the assumed Nordic energy systems were then estimated with the help of the model.
1 Introduction Hydrogen as an energy carrier has been considered to contribute to the challenges of future energy system: security of supplies and climate change. The development of a hydrogen economy, with hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources, is a long term objective of the European research agenda. Its potential for turning renewable energy such as wind and solar power into storable energy commodity makes it attractive
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for the future energy system in Europe. To make the hydrogen economy a reality in the long run, various options and transition paths should be systematically analysed. A comprehensive systems analysis with the widely used “bottom-up” technical-economic model MARKAL is planned by the IEA Hydrogen Coordination Group to take place in 2005. In the integrated EU project HyWays (www.hyways.de), the European hydrogen energy roadmap will be developed and regional hydrogen supply options and energy scenarios are analysed with MARKAL as well. This paper gives an overview of the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight with a special emphasis on the systems analysis and assessment of technological alternatives of Nordic hydrogen energy system. The main part of the paper focuses on the model description and scenario calculations including implications of the envisioned future development in terms of costs and market sizes. The inputs of scenario calculations are reported including a short description of the existing Nordic energy system. Finally, the conclusions on the scenario calculations of Nordic hydrogen systems are discussed.
2 Objectives and design of the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight The Nordic H2 Energy Foresight exercise was launched January 2003 by 16 project partners from academia, industry, energy companies and associations from all five Nordic countries. The Nordic Energy Foresight has the following objectives: To develop socio-technical visions for a future hydrogen economy and explore pathways to commercialisation of hydrogen production, transport, storage and utilisation To contribute as decision support for companies, research institutes and public authorities in order to prioritise R&D and to develop effective framework policies. To develop and strengthen scientific and industrial networks. The project has centered on a sequence of four interactive workshops: Scenario Workshop, Vision Workshop, Roadmap Workshop and Action Workshop. Expert judgments and discussions in these workshops are assisted and challenged by formal quantitative systems analysis and technology assessment. The Scenario Workshop discussed the external conditions around the hydrogen society. General issues that cannot be affected by a hydrogen technology policy but are likely to affect introduction of H2 Energy in the Nordic system were considered. The scenario workshop produced three scenario sketches for Nordic H2 energy introduction (see Eriksson, 2003): B – Big Business is Back is a globalised economy dominated by US multinationals and US big business-oriented policy approaches. Major physical investments are not particularly helped by the prevailing quarter-to-quarter capitalism. There is very little interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are moderate. However, H2 energy is still believed to be a likely component in future energy systems. E – Energy Entrepreneurs and Smart Policies is a globalised economy dominated by entrepreneurs and venture capitalists, and with policy actors apt at harnessing the power
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of innovation for societal purposes. The energy sector is characterised by a tendency towards decentralisation. There is some interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are moderate. P – Primacy of Politics is a Europe-centric economy characterised by co-operation between governments and big business and with a great interest in large-scale investment in energy and transport systems. There is some interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are high due to security-of-supply problems and an important driver for energy sector change. Combining the above three first-period (2005-2015) scenarios with second-period (20152030) developments (1. “hydrocarbon security-of-supply problems”, 2. “undisputable CO2 problems”, 3. “a smooth path to the future”), we got 9 scenarios (see Figure 1). Scenarios B3, E1 and P2 were chosen to form the framework for the subsequent work.
Developments 2015-30
1. Hydrocarbon security-ofsupply problems
2. Undisputable CO2 problems
3. A smooth path to the future
External scenarios 2003-15 B – Big Business Is Back
E – Energy Entrepreneurs and Smart Policies
B3 Big vision 6% E1 Big vision 15%
P – Primacy of Politics
P2 Big vision 18%
The colour indicates the ease of Nordic H2 introduction: green – easy yellow – intermediate red – difficult “Big Vision” indicates hydrogen’s share of the total Nordic energy system in 2030, except for consumption in industrial sector.
Figure 1. The external scenarios produced on the basis of the scenario workshop. At the Vision Workshop, the experts discussed hydrogen technology visions in the Nordic context and issues that can be affected by Nordic actors. Preliminary focusing was made on the most important issues – those with the highest feasibility today and the largest future Nordic market potential. Based on the assessment, the most interesting of the 66 hydrogen technology visions were selected (see Figure 2). For hydrogen production, the main energy source was believed to be natural gas over the next 25 years – especially in the B3 scenario. In the other two scenarios, natural gas might play a smaller but still important role. Renewable energy sources available for hydrogen production in the Nordic countries over the next 25 years are wind power, biomass, geothermal and hydro power. Most of the Nordic countries’ hydro resources are exploited by now, and only remote Iceland and Greenland have non exploited feasible resources. Only Iceland has geothermal resources. Nuclear energy is expected to play an important role in Finland, which could be used for hydrogen production as well. In the Vision Workshop, the energy sources for hydrogen production by 2030 in the three scenarios were settled by 2030 to: Scenario B3: Scenarios E1 & P2:
Natural gas: 70%; Renewable (and nuclear): 30% Natural gas: 50%; Renewable (and nuclear): 50%
The participating experts were also asked to assess an ambitious but realistic “big vision” for hydrogen by 2030. Hence, hydrogen’s share of the total Nordic energy system by 2030 was assessed as follows:
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Scenario B3: Scenario E1: Scenario P2:
6%-7% 14%-16% 16%-19%
6% 15% 18%
5 118
Techncal feasibility today (2003)
112 4
3 215 2
111322 202 201323 324 205 204 306 301 206 212 119 320 307 314 312 209 311 319 315 214 302 102 308 317 114 203 313 207210 123116 104 115 318 325 110 309 122 326 321 101 303 304 310 120 113 107 305103 213 105106 108 109 211 316 117 208
1
0 0
1
2
3
Nordic Market Potentials 2030
4
5
111: Wind power for H2 112: H2 from reform of natural gas 118: Energy production from RE 119: Gasification of biomass 202: H2 driven FC/electric city buses 203: H2 FC/electric drives in new private cars 204: H2 FC/electric drives for small special vehicles (fork-lifters, golf cars) 205: Pressurised tanks for H2 in transport 206: Storage of H2 as methane or methanol for transport 209: Methane driven FC/electric engines for ships 216: FC in fleets/public transport/taxi 301: Natural gas driven FC for domestic heat & power 310: ICT-based flexible controlling 322: Decentralised CHP plants 323: Power sources for mobile communication 324: Market opportunities for portable electronics
Figure 2. Ranking of hydrogen technology visions in average over scenarios – based on the vision workshop. The Roadmap Workshop outlined the sequence of implementation and mutual interdependence of the hydrogen technology visions from today until 2030. The experts discussed the business opportunities for Nordic equipment industry and energy market opportunities for the energy companies in the Nordic countries. This was carried out for each of the three areas (see Dannemand Andersen 2004): 1. Production and production related transmission/distribution of hydrogen; 2. Hydrogen used in the transport sector (including related distribution and retail); and 3. Stationary use of hydrogen (including related distribution and retail) The Action Workshop discussed the actions needed to overcome barriers and to realize the Nordic hydrogen energy visions and roadmaps. Focus was on the above listed three development areas. In addition, generic cross-cutting issues and conditions as well as possibilities utilizing new business opportunities were discussed (see Eerola, 2004). The Systems Analysis was carried out to analyse technological and economical feasibility of different hydrogen technologies in different scenarios. The method for scenario calculations and the main results are discussed in the following sections. A web-site – www.h2foresight.info – informs on ongoing hydrogen related activities, both in the Nordic countries and elsewhere and publishes results generated during and after the foresight process. The entire Foresight process has been described in more detail in earlier project reports and conference papers (Dannemand Andersen et al, 2005; Eerola et al, 2004). Finally, an evaluation of the foresight will be made on July 2005 by the end of the project.
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3 The systems analysis of the Nordic H2 Energy 3.1 The Nordic Hydrogen Energy Model During the project, a simplified technology based hydrogen energy model was created with linear programming method to analyse different hydrogen energy scenarios and pathways in the Nordic environment. The model includes hydrogen based technologies only, which makes it easy to use. The markets (i.e. H2 demand, market prices of fuels and electricity, CO2-tax, etc.) are specified by the user. The created model is a representation of the flows of energy (energy carriers) and technological alternatives in the hydrogen energy system. With the help of the model the analysis of least-cost strategies for achieving hydrogen energy and policy targets may be carried out. Annual costs are accumulated into the milestone years by linearisation and discounting, and the total cost (i.e. real cost) is minimised by using the linear programming method. The total cost includes all the investment and operating costs from the present to the final year of the scenario specified by the user. The energy and hydrogen balances of the model ensure that the demands of electricity, heat and transportation fuel will be covered. The necessary plant capacity to maintain these balances is obtained by investments to a new capacity. The representation of the Nordic hydrogen energy model is shown in the Figure 3. The input of the model for different milestone years includes: • Hydrogen energy demand for electricity, heat and transportation energy (% of the total demand) • Division of the hydrogen demand between centralized and decentralized demands • Market prices for fuels and electricity • Cost data (investment, operating) • Technical data (efficiencies, loss factors, life times, availability) • Economical data (discount rate) • Policy measures (investment subsides, CO2-tax).
Large Scale Natural Gas Pipeline
Renewable Electricity Production EL
Biomass
Market Electricity
BIO
EL
NG
Electrolyzing
Centralized Biomass Gasification
Centralized Steam Reforming
Compressor
Compressor
Compressor
Centralized
Renewable Electricity Production
Biomass BIO
EL
Electrolyzing
Decentralized Biomass Gasification
Compressor
Compressor
Compressor
Decentralized
H2
Liquefaction Plant
H2 H2
Mobile LH2 Transmission H2
NG
Decentralized Steam Reforming
H2
H2 Large Scale H2 Pipeline
H2
H2
LH2
H2
H2
LH2
H2
H2
H2
H2
H2
H2
Dispenser
Dispenser
Dispenser
Dispenser
Dispenser
Dispenser
H2 Storage
H2 Storage
H2 Storage
H2 Storage
H2 Storage
H2 Storage
H2 Fuel Station
CHP Fuel Cell
H2 Fuel Station
CHP Fuel Cell
H2 Fuel Station
CHP Fuel Cell
H2
Centralized H2 Fuel Demand
HE
Centralized Heat Demand
EL
Centralized Electricity Demand
Centralized H2 and Natural Gas Pipeline Connected
H2
Decentralized H2 Fuel Demand
HE
Decentralized Heat Demand
EL
H2
Decentralized Electricity Demand
HE
Decentralized H2 Fuel Demand
Decentralized Heat Demand
EL
Decentralized Electricity Demand
Decentralized Natural Gas Pipeline Connected
Figure 3. Representation of the Nordic hydrogen energy systems model.
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3.2 Description of the Nordic energy system and its future perspectives The Nordic countries have a wide diversity of primary energy sources, which is shown in Figure 4. In electricity production, the share of hydropower is more than 55%. The share of wind power is about 2%, which is mainly produced in Denmark. In addition to renewable energy sources, Norway and Denmark have a considerable production of oil and natural gas. International electricity grids are well developed in the Nordic countries and allow for transmission over long distances. Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden form a common electricity market area with the Nord Pool power exchange. Connections of electricity also exist to Germany, Russia and Poland. The natural gas network is well developed only in Denmark. In Finland and Sweden, the network covers the southern part of the country. In Norway, onshore natural gas grid practically does not exist. In the Nordic countries, industrial energy consumption is large due to high energy intensity in, for example, pulp and paper and metal industries. Because of cold climate, the share of space heating is high in overall energy consumption. However, the overall efficiency in energy production is high, since more than 80% of thermal power is produced in combined heat and power plants (CHP). Since 1990, total electricity consumption has risen by an average 1.2% annually (Swedish Energy Agency, 2003). The total energy demand in the Nordic region was estimated to grow about 7% from 2002 until 2030 in the Nordic region (Eurelectric 2002, EU 2004) as shown in the Figure 5. The highest increases were assumed in consumption of electricity (18%) and transportation fuels (12%) (Koljonen & Pursiheimo, 2004). 2500
6000 Total energy consumption, PJ
Total energy consumption, PJ
7000 2000
1500
1000
500
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
0 Denmark Oils total Peat
Finland
Island
Natural gas Biomass & wind
Norway
Coal & coke Hydro power
Sweden Nuclear fuel Geothermal
2002
2005 Electricity
2010
2015
Transport
2020
Space heating
2025
2030
Others
Figure 4. Total energy consumption and primary Figure 5. Estimated energy consumpenergy sources in the Nordic area in 2002. tion in the Nordic area until 2030.
3.3 Input values for the scenario calculations In energy production, the changes in the existing systems are very slow due to long life times of generating plants. Also, hydrogen as an energy carrier would compete with other sustainable energy systems. In the assessment of external scenarios, it is assumed that the role of hydrogen as an energy carrier would be minor in industry. Therefore, future hydrogen demand in the Nordic area is only divided into electricity generation, space heating and transport use. The share of hydrogen in transportation sector is assessed as in “big visions” by 2030. In the other two sectors, i.e. in stationary applications, it is assumed to be approximately half of the “big visions”. It is important to emphasize that the aim of these ambitious Nordic hydrogen visions is to set out
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challenges and not to predict what may likely happen. The technologies included in the scenario calculations were selected according to the result of the roadmap exercise. In the model, the H2 demand is also divided into centralized and decentralized hydrogen demands (see figure 3). The shares in 2005-2030 were set according to the expert judgments to 60%-70% for centralized demand, 10%15% for decentralized demand along natural gas pipeline and 20%-25% for decentralized demand without natural gas pipeline. The energy sources for hydrogen production were settled in the Vision Workshop, as discussed in chapter 2. The detailed description of the technical and economical data including investment costs, operating costs, efficiencies, life times and availabilities are given in the final report of systems analysis (Koljonen et al. 2005). For the ‘base case’ calculations we have selected the discount ratio of 5%. All the cost data is based on 2003 euros. The investment costs of fuel cells and electrolysis were assumed to be subsided in the scenarios E1 and P2. Renewable energy sources were also favoured in these scenarios due to fuel tax for natural gas. Natural gas price level follows the price forecast by International Energy Agency (IEA, 2002). The biomass prices are based on the estimates for forest residues in Finland including transportation cost for 100 km. It should be noted, that biomass is a local energy source and the price level may vary a lot between Nordic countries. For electricity, two price levels were assumed; spot market price and higher price level for electricity produced from renewable energy sources. The market price estimates of electricity are based on VTT’s calculations with stochastic dynamic market price model of the Nordic market area (Koljonen & Savolainen, 2004). Renewable electricity prices are based on the production cost expectations of off-shore wind power. Table 1. Assumed fuel and electricity prices, investment supports and fuel taxes for the milestone years 2005, 2015 and 2030. Scenario B3
Scenario E1
Scenario P2
Natural gas (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
14,0/13,5/15,0
14,0/12,5/13,51)
14,0/16,0/19,5
Biomass (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
10/14/20
10/14/20
10/14/20
Electricity (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
23/29/50
23/29/50
23/29/50
Renewable electricity (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
46/39/32
46/39/32
46/39/32
Investment subsidy (2005/2015/2030), %
0/0/0
50/40/0
50/40/0
Fuel tax (2005/2015/2030), €/MWh
8/0/0
8/9/10
8/9/10
1)
IEA price forecast (IEA 2002)
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3.4 Scenario results of the Nordic hydrogen energy system Figure 6 shows the total costs for the three scenarios and the hydrogen shares assumed for transportation sector. For stationary applications, the hydrogen share is half of the shares presented in figure 6. Figure 7 shows the investment costs for hydrogen production, hydrogen infrastructure and for heat and power production. It should be noted that the selection of discount ratio has a remarkable effect on the total costs. For example, the decrease in discount ratio to 3% increased the total costs about 35% in 2020 and 60% in 2030. With the model assumptions, the investments in the hydrogen infrastructure seem to be the highest.
16000 14000
Hydrogen Production
12000
Energy Production
16 % 14 %
8%
8000
6%
6000
10000
4%
4000
5000
2%
0
0% P2
E1
0 B3
2030
P2
2020
E1
2015
B3
2010
P2
2005
2030
2000
E1
15000
2020
10000
B3
10 % 20000
2015
P2
12 %
2010
Hydrogen Distribution
E1
25000
2005 18000
B3
30000
18 %
P2
35000
Cost B3 Cost E1 Cost P2 H2 Share B3 H2 Share E1 H2 Share P2
E1
40000
B3
20 %
45000
Figure 6. Total costs (in million €) and hydro- Figure 7. Investment costs (in million €) gen shares for the transportation sector. in energy production, hydrogen production and hydrogen distribution. Table 2 shows the shares of steam reforming, steam reforming with carbon capture, electrolysis and biomass gasification. According to the result of the roadmap exercise, carbon capture would not be available before 2010. Table 2 shows also the shares of fuel cells and gas engines for combined heat and power production (CHP) and fuel cells for electricity production only. Table 2. Hydrogen production (MW) and energy production (MW) with different technologies for the milestone years 2005, 2015 and 2030 for the scenarios B3, E1 and P2. Scenario B3
Scenario E1
Scenario P2
Steam reforming (2005/2015/2030), MW
20/300/800
40/500/2000
40/1800/2200
Steam reforming with CO2 capture (2005/2015/2030), MW
0/100/400
0/1000/7200
0/300/9300
Electrolysis, MW
5/100/400
5/200/1100
5/300/1300
Biomass gasification, MW
30/400/1300
30/1400/4900
30/2100/4400
CHP fuel cell, MW
10/300/2100
10/700/5100
10/1200/6100
CHP gas engine, MW
4/90/0
4/60/200
4/80/200
Fuel cell, MW
3/90/200
3/60/500
3/90/600
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To fulfil the “big visions” energy demand for hydrogen energy in the Nordic transport sector, about 0.5-2 million hydrogen vehicles would be needed in 2020 and about 1-4 million hydrogen vehicles in 2030. The number fuelling stations needed in 2020 is estimated to 500-2000 and in 2030 to 1000-4000, respectively. These scenarios for hydrogen supply per station are based on the assumption that 50% of the vehicles are ICE-powered and 50% are equipped with a fuel cell drive train (HyNet 2004). The number of passenger cars totaled 8.2 million in 2002 in the Nordic countries (Eurostat 2004) and the total number of road vehicles was 9.6 million, respectively. According to EU scenario (EU 2004), the annual percentual change in passenger and freight transport activity could be approximately 1-2%. This means that it is very unlikely that the number of hydrogen vehicles would reach our “big visions”.
4 Conclusions In our work, the technical and economical potential of hydrogen society in the Nordic countries as well as the competitiveness of the hydrogen based systems were analysed with the help of the linear optimization method. Because hydrogen technology is a rapidly developing area, the most challenging task in the modelling work was assessing and gathering the data. Despite of huge amount of information found from the literature, many of the inputs have a great uncertainty, especially in the longer term. The scenario calculations indicate that the highest uncertainty is related to the energy losses of the whole hydrogen energy system. The selection of discount ratio has a remarkable effect on the total costs. Compared to the investments in the hydrogen production and stationary applications for energy production, the investments in the hydrogen infrastructure seem to be the highest. However, the investment costs of hydrogen infrastructure have high uncertainty also. In our scenario calculations, biomass gasification and steam reforming seem to be the most competitive technologies for hydrogen production. The competitiveness of biomass gasification is greatly affected by biomass fuel price, which is a local energy source. Electrolysis seems to be competitive in decentralized systems, if the electricity price is low enough. In our scenario calculations, CHP fuel cells seem to be the most competitive in the long term for energy production. With the scenario assumptions, the approximated Nordic market sizes in 2030 for the base three basic scenarios varied from 1000 M€ to 3000 M€ for hydrogen production, from 1000 to 4000 M€ for stationary applications and from 4000 M€ to 12 000 M€ for hydrogen transmission. In 2020, about 0.5-2 million hydrogen vehicles and in 2030 about 1-4 million hydrogen vehicles would be needed to fulfil the “big visions” for hydrogen energy in the Nordic transport sector. The number fuelling stations needed in 2020 was estimated to 500-2000 and in 2030 to 1000-4000 respectively. The analysis of competitiveness of hydrogen systems in the Nordic environment compared to other sustainable energy applications would need more detailed and comprehensive systems analysis. This could be done with larger bottom-up systems models, like MARKAL or TIMES. However, these models need detailed regional information of the existing energy systems, which makes the input database very large. Also, the type of technical and economical data on hydrogen based technologies that were used in this study should be defined for the other competing future energy systems too. Compiling detailed technology roadmaps and systems analysis are challenging tasks for a technological area that is undergoing rapid development, especially when there is
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an additional regulatory uncertainty caused by unpredictable political decisions. The foresight process offered good opportunities in identifying and validating data to the modelling work. This process can be further optimised by more detailed and comprehensive studies and analysis, which again should be validated by the key stakeholders.
5 REFERENCES Dannemand Andersen, P., Holst-Jørgensen, B., Eerola, A., Koljonen, T., Loikkanen, T. & Eriksson, E.A. (2005): Building the Nordic Research and Innovation Area in Hydrogen - Summary Report, January 2005. ISBN 87-550-3401-2. Available on website www.h2foresight.info (ISBN 87-550-3402-0). Eerola, A. (2004). Nordic Action Report - November 2004. ISBN 87-550-3437-3. Available on website www.h2foresight.info. Eerola, A., Loikkanen, T., Holst Jørgensen, B., Dannemand Andersen, P. & Eriksson, E.A. (2004). Nordic H2 Energy Foresight – Complementary Contribution of Expert Views and Formal Analyses. A paper presented in the EU-US Scientific Seminar “New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods”, Seville, May 1314, 2004. Available on website www.h2foresight.info EU (2004). European energy and transport http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/index_en.html
–
Trends
to
2030.
Eurelectric (2002). EURPROG Network of Experts. 2002. Statistics and prospects for the European Electricity sector (1980 – 1990, 2000 – 2020). 30th edition, Eurelectric, July 2002. Report n:o 2002-030-0354. Eurostat (2004). European Union. Energy & Transport in Figures 2004. Available on website http://europa.eu.int/comm/dgs/energy_transport/ Holst Jørgensen, B. (2003). H2 R&D Activities in the Nordic Countries – October 2003. ISBN 87-550-3432-2. Available on website www.h2foresight.info HyNet (2004). Towards a European hydrogen Energy Roadmap. Available on www.hynet.info IEA 2002. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2002. OECD/IEA, Paris, France. ISBN 92-64-19835-0. Koljonen, T., Pursiheimo, E. Gether, K. & Jørgensen K. (2005). Systems Analysis and Assessment of Technological Alternatives for H2 Energy Foresight – January 2005. ISBN 87-550-3434-9. Available on website www.h2foresight.info Koljonen, T. & Pursiheimo, E (2004). Nordic Energy Basics – January 2004. ISBN 87550-3435-7. Available on website www.h2foresight.info Koljonen, T. & Savolainen, I. The impact of the EU emissions trading directive on energy and steel industries in Finland. In: E.S.Rubin, D.W.Keith and C.F.Gilboy (Eds.), Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme, Cheltenham, UK, 2004. www.ghgt7.ca Swedish Energy Agency (2003) The Electricity market 2003. Available on website www.stem.se
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