Ocean Acidification and warming
An integrated assessment model to help the US Atlantic Sea Scallop industry plan for ocean acidification and warming Jennie E. Rheuban1 Sarah R. Cooley2, Deborah R. Hart3, Victoria Luu4, David M. Glover1, Jonathan A. Hare5, and Scott C. Doney1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA The Ocean Concervancy, Washington ,DC NEFSC, Woods Hole, MA Boston College NEFSC, Narragansett, RI
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2010)
Atmosphere 47%
+
~10 billion tons carbon per year
Land 27% Oceans 26%
LeQuere et al. Nature Geosciences 2009; Global Carbon Project 2011
Changing Seawater Chemistry carbon dioxide pH
IPCC 2014 WG1, Chapter 3 Doney et al. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2009 Dore et al. PNAS 2009
Ocean Acidification CO2 + H2O
pH
2HCO3 pH
CO2− 3
2000 30% acidity 16% [CO32−]
8.0 7.9 7.8 1800
CO2(aq) 1900
[CO2] [CO2− 3 ]
2100 100−150% 50% 2000
Year Wolf-Gladrow et al. 1999
50
300
40
240
30
180
20
120
10
60
0 2100
0
μmol kg−1
8.1
HCO3
-
CO2 + CO328.2
-
H+ + CO32-
H+ + HCO-3
Calcium Carbonate Saturation State Ca2++ CO32-
CaCO3 (solid)
Saturation State = [Ca2+][CO32-] / Ksp >1 saturated landings?
Scallop size classes
Mid-Atlantic
Georges Bank
Biomass, Revenue, Landings
Atmospheric CO2 (IPCC RCP pathways) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
Simple future projection
2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2005 2000
Next Steps: Future climate scenarios Temperature (CMIP5 models)
Atmospheric CO2 (IPCC RCP pathways) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2005 2000
US PCDI (2011$) (RCP IAMs)
Fuel Tax ($/gallon) (RCP IAMs)
120000 12
110000 100000
10
90000 8
80000 70000
6
60000 4
50000 40000
2
30000 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
0 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA The Ocean Concervancy, Washington ,DC NEFSC, Woods Hole, MA Boston College NEFSC, Narragansett, RI
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2010)
Atmosphere 47%
+
~10 billion tons carbon per year
Land 27% Oceans 26%
LeQuere et al. Nature Geosciences 2009; Global Carbon Project 2011
Changing Seawater Chemistry carbon dioxide pH
IPCC 2014 WG1, Chapter 3 Doney et al. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2009 Dore et al. PNAS 2009
Ocean Acidification CO2 + H2O
pH
2HCO3 pH
CO2− 3
2000 30% acidity 16% [CO32−]
8.0 7.9 7.8 1800
CO2(aq) 1900
[CO2] [CO2− 3 ]
2100 100−150% 50% 2000
Year Wolf-Gladrow et al. 1999
50
300
40
240
30
180
20
120
10
60
0 2100
0
μmol kg−1
8.1
HCO3
-
CO2 + CO328.2
-
H+ + CO32-
H+ + HCO-3
Calcium Carbonate Saturation State Ca2++ CO32-
CaCO3 (solid)
Saturation State = [Ca2+][CO32-] / Ksp >1 saturated landings?
Scallop size classes
Mid-Atlantic
Georges Bank
Biomass, Revenue, Landings
Atmospheric CO2 (IPCC RCP pathways) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
Simple future projection
2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2005 2000
Next Steps: Future climate scenarios Temperature (CMIP5 models)
Atmospheric CO2 (IPCC RCP pathways) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2005 2000
US PCDI (2011$) (RCP IAMs)
Fuel Tax ($/gallon) (RCP IAMs)
120000 12
110000 100000
10
90000 8
80000 70000
6
60000 4
50000 40000
2
30000 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
0 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
