Oil & Gas Key Facts
Deepwater Brazil Congress 2010: Brazilian Offshore E&P Investment Perspectives
Deloitte – Petroleum Services 1
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Key Facts
Reserves Proved Petroleum Reserves by Geographic Regions*
142,2 70,9
754,1
42
125,6
123,3
North America
South America
Africa
Middle East
Russia & CIS
Asia Pacific
Fonte: ANP 3
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Oil & Gas Key Facts Reserves, Production & Consumption Statistics
•Currently 59% of world oil reserves belong to five countries: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. •Natural Gas situation is even more critical, with the 53% of the world reserves being held by only three countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar •In Brazil 92,8% of oil reserves and 82,1% of gas reserves are offshore •In 2009, Brazil was the 16th world ranking as to proven oil reserves, with the pre salt reserves…fifth, tenth on ranking?
4
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Oil & Gas Key Facts Reserves, Production & Consumption Statistics • Currently 43% of total oil production come from Russia, Saudi Arabia, US, Iran and China, • Natural gas production is also more concentrated: US, Russia, Canada, Iran and Norway produce 51% of World total natural gas.
5
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Oil & Gas Key Facts Reserves, Production & Consumption Statistics •Total Petroleum production in Brazil come from 8.560 wells that produce, 44 types of oils with API average 24 API •91% of oil production and 72% of gas production come from offshore wells •Last august Brazil reached a production peak of 2,078 M bbl/d
6
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Key Basins & Hot Spots
Regulatory Framework Bidding Rounds History
Constitutional Amendment No. 9 of 10 November 1995
1995
ANP is Established; Round Zero 397 Contracts signed
1997
1998
Changes in PEM and Local Content regulation
CNPE starts to define Energy Policy Round
1999-2002
2003
2004
2005
Round 9 blocks adjacent to the pre-salt cluster withdrawn
2006
2007
2008
1998
Law 9478/97 (Petroleum Law) Creates ANP & CNPE
8
Bidding Rounds ANP responding for all steps from Round 1 to 4.
Round 6 was approved by MME as referedum of CNPE
Round 8 Suspended by a Legal Injunction
Round 10 with only onshore areas
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
9
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
10
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
11
Pre salt discoveries have not been declared commercial yet.
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Brazil: Oil & Gas Development Drilling Activity •In 2009, 854 wells were driled, 70% of them were exploratory wells. •This represents a slight increase in the drilling activity from 2008: 3,4%. •In 2009, offshore success rate was of 56%: 19 discoveries offshore.
12
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Hot Spots Brazilian Basins/ Campos Basins
(million of bbl/d)
Oil Production 2.50 2.00 1.50
1.00 0.50 2005 13
2006 Brazil
2007 Campos Basin
2008
2009 © 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Hot Spots Brazilian Basins/ Campos Basins
• Petrobras has 50% of Exploratory blocks in Campos Basin; •For all blocks in Brazil 62% are consortiuns, 67% of partnerships are with Petrobras. •In Campos only 26% consortions, 76% with Petrobras; on these operators are Maersk, Anadarko, Devon (inc. Polvo). •OGX 15 discoveries •Anadarko pre-salt Wahoo Discovery in deepwater Brazil, •Statoil´s Peregrino will start production frist quarter/2011
14
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Regulatory Framework Pre-Salt Milestones Round 9 blocks adjacent to the pre-salt cluster withdrawn
May/2009 First Oil n Santos Pre Salt Cluster in Tupi
Four bills proposed for regulatory change.
Tupi pilot production 100,000 b/d and 4 MM m3
Tupi discovery
2005
2007 1998 BM-S-11 Tupi BM-S-10 Parati BM-S-9 Carioca BM-S-12 Tupi Sul BM-S-21 Caramba BM-S-8 Bem te Vi BM-S-22 Jupiter
15
2008
2009
2010
Wells Spud Date BM-S-9 Guará BM-S-11 Iara BM-S-22 Azulão
BM-S-9 Iguacu BM-S-11 Iracema BM-S-22 Guarani BM-S-9 Abara Oeste BM-S-11 Tupi Nordeste
BM-S-11 Tupi Alto
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Regulatory Framework New Regime •Recent investments in the oil sector led to the discoveries the pre-salt Santos Basin, considered at first of minor interest; •Currently Brazil is the best opportunity of the exploratory world (or at least one of the best); Since the first discovery in Nov/2007: • Pre-salt opens many opportunities not only for E&P companies but for services companies; • Pre-salt will be Operated by Petrobras with 30% min participation in Production 16 Sharing Agreements.
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Future Perspectives Investments •For 50 billion barrels USD 600 billions •Total E&P investments of USD 100 Billion next 5 years (i) US$ 25 billion from other companies + (ii) USD 75 billion from Petrobras •Pre salt investments of USD 45 Billion next 5 years (i) USD 12 billion from other companies + (ii) USD 33 billion from Petrobras. Petrobras Business Plan 2010 – 2014 Investiments: US$ 212,2 billions 1%
1%
2%
8%
1998
51%
37%
17
E&P
Abastecimento
G&E
Distribuição
PBio
Corporativo © 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Future Perspectives Investments
Pre Salt: USD 33,0 Billions
3%
Post Salt: USD 75,2 Billions
18%
15%
13%
84% 67%
Exploration
18
Development
Infrastructure
Source: Plano de negócios da Petrobras
Exploration
Development
Infrastructure
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL. This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. © 2010 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 3000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7583 1198. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
19
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Deloitte – Petroleum Services 1
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Key Facts
Reserves Proved Petroleum Reserves by Geographic Regions*
142,2 70,9
754,1
42
125,6
123,3
North America
South America
Africa
Middle East
Russia & CIS
Asia Pacific
Fonte: ANP 3
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Oil & Gas Key Facts Reserves, Production & Consumption Statistics
•Currently 59% of world oil reserves belong to five countries: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. •Natural Gas situation is even more critical, with the 53% of the world reserves being held by only three countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar •In Brazil 92,8% of oil reserves and 82,1% of gas reserves are offshore •In 2009, Brazil was the 16th world ranking as to proven oil reserves, with the pre salt reserves…fifth, tenth on ranking?
4
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Oil & Gas Key Facts Reserves, Production & Consumption Statistics • Currently 43% of total oil production come from Russia, Saudi Arabia, US, Iran and China, • Natural gas production is also more concentrated: US, Russia, Canada, Iran and Norway produce 51% of World total natural gas.
5
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Oil & Gas Key Facts Reserves, Production & Consumption Statistics •Total Petroleum production in Brazil come from 8.560 wells that produce, 44 types of oils with API average 24 API •91% of oil production and 72% of gas production come from offshore wells •Last august Brazil reached a production peak of 2,078 M bbl/d
6
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Key Basins & Hot Spots
Regulatory Framework Bidding Rounds History
Constitutional Amendment No. 9 of 10 November 1995
1995
ANP is Established; Round Zero 397 Contracts signed
1997
1998
Changes in PEM and Local Content regulation
CNPE starts to define Energy Policy Round
1999-2002
2003
2004
2005
Round 9 blocks adjacent to the pre-salt cluster withdrawn
2006
2007
2008
1998
Law 9478/97 (Petroleum Law) Creates ANP & CNPE
8
Bidding Rounds ANP responding for all steps from Round 1 to 4.
Round 6 was approved by MME as referedum of CNPE
Round 8 Suspended by a Legal Injunction
Round 10 with only onshore areas
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
9
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
10
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
11
Pre salt discoveries have not been declared commercial yet.
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Brazil: Oil & Gas Development Drilling Activity •In 2009, 854 wells were driled, 70% of them were exploratory wells. •This represents a slight increase in the drilling activity from 2008: 3,4%. •In 2009, offshore success rate was of 56%: 19 discoveries offshore.
12
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Hot Spots Brazilian Basins/ Campos Basins
(million of bbl/d)
Oil Production 2.50 2.00 1.50
1.00 0.50 2005 13
2006 Brazil
2007 Campos Basin
2008
2009 © 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Hot Spots Brazilian Basins/ Campos Basins
• Petrobras has 50% of Exploratory blocks in Campos Basin; •For all blocks in Brazil 62% are consortiuns, 67% of partnerships are with Petrobras. •In Campos only 26% consortions, 76% with Petrobras; on these operators are Maersk, Anadarko, Devon (inc. Polvo). •OGX 15 discoveries •Anadarko pre-salt Wahoo Discovery in deepwater Brazil, •Statoil´s Peregrino will start production frist quarter/2011
14
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Regulatory Framework Pre-Salt Milestones Round 9 blocks adjacent to the pre-salt cluster withdrawn
May/2009 First Oil n Santos Pre Salt Cluster in Tupi
Four bills proposed for regulatory change.
Tupi pilot production 100,000 b/d and 4 MM m3
Tupi discovery
2005
2007 1998 BM-S-11 Tupi BM-S-10 Parati BM-S-9 Carioca BM-S-12 Tupi Sul BM-S-21 Caramba BM-S-8 Bem te Vi BM-S-22 Jupiter
15
2008
2009
2010
Wells Spud Date BM-S-9 Guará BM-S-11 Iara BM-S-22 Azulão
BM-S-9 Iguacu BM-S-11 Iracema BM-S-22 Guarani BM-S-9 Abara Oeste BM-S-11 Tupi Nordeste
BM-S-11 Tupi Alto
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Regulatory Framework New Regime •Recent investments in the oil sector led to the discoveries the pre-salt Santos Basin, considered at first of minor interest; •Currently Brazil is the best opportunity of the exploratory world (or at least one of the best); Since the first discovery in Nov/2007: • Pre-salt opens many opportunities not only for E&P companies but for services companies; • Pre-salt will be Operated by Petrobras with 30% min participation in Production 16 Sharing Agreements.
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Future Perspectives Investments •For 50 billion barrels USD 600 billions •Total E&P investments of USD 100 Billion next 5 years (i) US$ 25 billion from other companies + (ii) USD 75 billion from Petrobras •Pre salt investments of USD 45 Billion next 5 years (i) USD 12 billion from other companies + (ii) USD 33 billion from Petrobras. Petrobras Business Plan 2010 – 2014 Investiments: US$ 212,2 billions 1%
1%
2%
8%
1998
51%
37%
17
E&P
Abastecimento
G&E
Distribuição
PBio
Corporativo © 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Future Perspectives Investments
Pre Salt: USD 33,0 Billions
3%
Post Salt: USD 75,2 Billions
18%
15%
13%
84% 67%
Exploration
18
Development
Infrastructure
Source: Plano de negócios da Petrobras
Exploration
Development
Infrastructure
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL. This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. © 2010 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 3000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7583 1198. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
19
© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
