Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Central Asian mountains
MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES
Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Central Asian mountains EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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This Outlook has been developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) in the context of the inter-regional project “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective” that is financially co-supported by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW). This Outlook builds on the main findings and results available through conducted projects and is based on available literature and latest national and regional documents, such as national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is based on the review of existing literature and information received during consultations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2–3 September 2015, and 19-20 December 2016 with the involvement of designated governmental experts from the Central Asia countries and representatives of the international organisations. The Outlook has also been supported by the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD) through its Decision 6, April 2014, Dushanbe, Tajikistan; Decision 7, June 2015, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan; Decision 2, May 2016, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
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Title in Russian: Адаптация к изменению климата в горных районах Центральной Азии Maps and graphics: Manana Kurtubadze Photo credits: 1 iStock/MisoKnitl; 5 iStock/AlexBrylov; 6 iStock/ Олег Елагин; 7 iStock/Knighterrant; 12 iStock/cartela 13 iStock/ AL-Travelpicture; 15 iStock/Anorthco; 16 iStock/MisoKnitl Front cover photo: Fedchenko glacier, Tajikistan Back cover photo: Tajikistan
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Zholdosheva, E., Rucevska, I., Semernya, L., Dairov, I., Kozhakhmetov, P., Barieva, A., Maskaev, A., Mitrofanenko, T., Alekseeva, N., 2017. Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Central Asian Mountains. Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series. UN Environment, GRID-Arendal, RMCCA. Nairobi, Vienna, Arendal, Bishkek. www.unep.org, www.grida.no.
UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. This publication is printed on fully recycled paper, FSC certified, post-consumer waste and chlorinefree. Inks are vegetable-based and coatings are waterbased. UNEP’s distribution policy aims to reduce its carbon footprint.
Foreword The five states of Central Asia are already being hit by climate change. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are experiencing detrimental changes in water distribution, extreme weather, natural hazards, and unique mountain biodiversity. This report highlights the risks to the region’s security and economy and recommends practical ways to increase resilience using ecosystembased adaptation measures. Mountain ecosystems enrich the lives of over half the world’s population. They provide essential goods and services like water, energy and agriculture. However, rising temperatures and changing weather patterns affect forests, grasslands and lakes. Pollution from mining and agriculture erode their ability to cope with the changes. Dependent populations are increasingly susceptible to the resulting damage, especially when they are isolated from other markets and services. Yet, despite such particular vulnerability to climate change, mountain areas rarely receive appropriate attention from policy makers.
Take the Vanj Valley. It‘s a remote, mountainous and sparsely populated region in the Western Pamir of Tajikistan. At 1,500–2,500 metres above sea level, local people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and forests for clean water and protection against erosion, flooding and mudflows. As temperatures increase so do the risks from glacier melt, dam bursts and drought, which can damage infrastructure and those vital forests. But Tajikistan has yet to develop a climate strategy and in such areas, limited access to services and institutional structures makes it difficult to adapt to change. The practical advice in this report is designed to help with exactly that kind of situation. For example, joint forest and ecosystem management is making the Vanj Valley more resilient to climate change and providing more sustainable natural resources to support livelihoods. A local NGO, CAMP Tabiat, and the German Corporation for International Development are working with government, scientists and the local community to protect and restore forests. They are using drought-resistant crops, microfinance and annual planning to manage the forests. Efforts in other
Erik Solheim Executive Director UN Environment
areas, like flood defences, have not yet been successful because of difficulties in engaging local communities. One of the lessons drawn from the project is that the topic of climate change needs to be carefully introduced and differentiated from non-climate risks. Otherwise it can distract people from existing problems or overload them with too many complex issues. That’s just one of many such examples, because this report is part of the Mountain Adaptation Outlook series for Central Asia, Eastern Africa, Southern Caucasus, (tropical) Andes and Western Balkans. The collection provides a unique and practical companion for local, regional and national policy makers seeking to protect fragile mountain ecosystems and the people who depend on them. The broad assessments by governments and experts are invaluable, but I would particularly like to thank GRID-Arendal and the Government of Austria for their additional support in bringing the reports to life. I hope the resulting benefits for people in the mountains of Central Asia will show how worthwhile an effort this is.
H.E. Andrä Rupprechter Austrian Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management 3
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Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
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Executive Summary Central Asia comprises a vast area stretching from the Western Siberian lowlands to the Tian Shan and Pamir mountain ranges and from the Altai to the Caspian Sea. Its topography is characterised by vast deserts and mountainous regions. In total, 20 per cent of the approximately four million square kilometres that make up Central Asia is covered by mountains. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are mountainous countries, with more than 90 per cent of their respective territories covered by mountains. The mountainous regions of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan make up between 5 and 20 per cent of their total territories.
to climate change, which manifests in a rising annual average temperature. Such raise in temperature will have a mainly negative impact on the region.
The region’s location in the centre of the Eurasian landmass, far from humid ocean currents, determines its arid climate and results in a rich diversity of landscapes, with more than twenty different ecosystems. Because of these specific features, the countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are among those most vulnerable
National and regional research conducted in Central Asia suggests that the region is experiencing an overall warming in climate, with a 0.5°C increase in the annual average temperature over the past 30 years. Precipitation records show greater disparities than temperature data, with significant variations across the region, including in mountainous areas.
According to the research conducted by the World Bank in 2009 in 28 countries in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have the highest degree of vulnerability to climate change. This is an alarming trend, highlighting the particular vulnerability of the mountain ecosystems of Central Asia to climate change in comparison to other mountainous regions of the Eurasian continent.
Global climate change influences glaciers and water resources in the region’s mountain areas. It presents an acute and urgent need to research and analyse the impact of climate change on humans, ecosystems and economies of countries in the region, and to consider what climate change related policies these countries should adopt.
Observed climat
Observed climate change and scenarios for Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed
Scenarios
Temperature
Temperature Extreme temperature (+)
Extreme temperature (+) Precipitation
Extreme precipitation
Precipitation Increasing trend
Decreasing trend
Mixed trend
No data
Extreme precipitation
Sources : National Communications: 3rd-6th of Kazakhstan, 2013; 2nd of Kyrgyzstan, 2009; 3rd of Tajikistan, 2014; 3rd of Turkmenistan, 2015; 2nd of Uzbekistan, 2008.
Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Moraine glacial lake, Kyrgyzstan
Increasing 5
Sources : National Communications: 3rd-6th of Kazakhsta
Purpose and methodology of the Outlook The Outlook focuses on the impacts of climate change on people, ecosystems and the economies of the Central Asian countries and proposes that a development of climate change policies in these countries is essential. The Outlook synthesizes the existing information on current trends and challenges in terms of climate change adaptation in mountain regions of Central Asia, based on the most recent
academic literature as well as on consultations with various governmental and non-governmental experts from the Central Asian region and beyond. It identifies gaps and concrete needs in terms of climate change adaptation and provides a set of recommendations for concrete policy action. The Outlook is intended for a broad audience of experts and specialists, civil society representatives and donor organisations as well as decision-makers
from various sectors. It seeks to encourage crosssectoral dialogue on climate change adaptation. The Outlook is the result of an extensive assessment process which included surveys and a broad literature review encompassing latest research and existing policy documents on the impact of climate change in Central Asia. The assessment was based on a ranking of current climate vulnerability and the potential impact of natural disasters (e.g. drought, flooding), which
Potential and current hydropower production and current energy demand GWh 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Tajikistan
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Potential hydroresource
Pamir mountains, Tajikistan
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No data for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
Energy Power generation consumption by HPP
Sources : State statistical services of Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan; www.cawater-info.net; www.effectenergy.eu; www.indexmundi.com; www.kegoc.kz; www.tajhydro.tj; UNDP 2011; Yasinskiy et al., 2013. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
could impede sustainable development, in particular when combating poverty, developing infrastructure, energy and agriculture and ensuring food security. The Outlook was discussed at two regional consultation meetings held in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in 2015 and 2016. The development of the Outlook was reviewed and acknowledged by the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD). The Outlook is one of the outcomes of the “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective” project, which is being implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) with support from the Government of Austria. This project seeks to support mountainous countries in five sub-regions (Central Asia, East Africa, South Caucasus, Tropical Andes and Western Balkans) to integrate climate change adaptation issues into their development strategies, plans and programmes. The partners of UN Environment in preparing the Outlook for Central Asia were: Regional Mountain Centre for Central Asia (RMCCA) and GRID-Arendal.
4%
Annual freshwater withdrawal by sectors in 2013 3%
5% 4%
3% 3%
7%
4%
93%
91%
94%
90%
3%
30%
66%
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Agriculture
Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Industry
Source: www.data.worldbank.org Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Domestic
Kyrgyzstan
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Key findings of the Outlook Consequences of climate change One of the consequences of climate change is that ecosystem zones (forests, pastures, etc.) move vertically upwards in mountainous regions. At the same time, there is displacement, and changes in composition, abundance and distribution of animal and plant species, which can impact agricultural
activity in mountain regions, resulting in changes in pasture and crop rotation practices. The increase in temperature and changes of precipitation patterns lead to changes in the hydrological regime and a reduction in water resources. The projected reduction in water resources is aggravated by rising demand due to population growth. The importance of mountain
ecosystems as ‘water towers’ in Central Asia is growing, particularly in the context of climate change. However, the decline in glacial and snow reserves is also taking its toll on the accessibility of water resources which are essential to energy production and agriculture. This significantly impacts not only mountain communities but also the ones downstream, on the plains - in the steppe semi-desert and desert areas.
Current and projected data for the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya Average water demand and unmet demand
Average flow m³/sec
Syr Darya
7,000
2001-2010
6,000
2014-2050
5,000
mln m³ 70,000 60,000 50,000
Syr Darya Basin Annual water demand Annual unmet demand
Inflow in 2001-2050
600 500
4,000
40,000
400
3,000
30,000
300
2,000
20,000
200
1,000
10,000
100
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
Toktogul Reservoir, Syr Darya Basin
m³/sec 700
0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
2001-2010 2041-2050
Base flow m³/sec
Amu Darya
7,000
2001-2010
6,000
2014-2050
5,000
60,000 50,000
Amu Darya Basin Annual water demand Annual unmet demand
400
3,000
30,000
300
2,000
20,000
200
1,000
10,000
100
Source : Asian Development Bank, 2014.
0
2001-2010 2041-2050
Snow melt
Rain
Nurek Reservoir, Amu Darya Basin
500
40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Glacier melt
600
4,000
0
8
mln m³ 70,000
m³/sec 700
0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Graphs by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Ecoregions of Central Asia 5 Petropavlovsk Kustanau
To
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Aktobe
Astana
Pavlodar
5 Oskemen
Lake Tengiz
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Oral
Irty
Lake Seletyteniz
ol
Lake Zaysan
Karaghandy
2
2
3
Emba
Atyrau
10
10
KAZAKHSTAN Lake Balkhash
2
Lake Alakol
ARAL SEA
9 1
7
1
Aktau
Kyzyl Orda
4 Kapchagay Reservoir
7 Almaty
1
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Bukhara
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Balkanabat
Da
TURKMENISTAN
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UZBEKISTAN
Samarkand
Turkmenabat
Karshi
Mary 0
200 km 2
Source: Central Asia Atlas of Natural Resources, ADB, 2010. Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Lake Aydarkul
4
Shymkent
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Bishkek
Lake 4 Issyk-Kul 9 KYRGYZSTAN Tashkent Jalalabad Ferghana Osh Kokand
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Dushanbe
7 Kurgan-Tyube Pa n
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Dashoguz Lake Sarygamysh
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Nukus
Turkmenbashi
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7 KaraBogaz-Gol
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Sy
CASPIAN SEA
Talas
12 TAJIKISTAN 11 Khorog
Karakol 9
1
Desert
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Semidesert
3
Semidesert and steppe
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Steppe
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Forest steppe
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Forest steppe and woodland
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Woodland
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Conifer forest
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Montane steppe and meadow
10
Alpine meadow and tundra
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Alpine desert and tundra
12
Glacier Salt lake
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populations, and have demonstrated commitment at the national level to address global climate Projected impact of climate change in key sectors of Central Asia change. All five countries are members of the United across different global warming levels* Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1°C (≈2010s) 1.5°C (≈2030s) 2°C (≈2040s) 3°C (≈2060s) 4°C (≈2080s) 5°C (UNFCCC), they have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and have signed the Paris Agreement. The latter, 1°C Heat Land area affected 15% 30% 70% 80% extremes however, has only been ratified and entered into force in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Heat Central Asian glacier mass loss Climate change is also a priority in the context L Glaciers 31% of Tien Shan extremes of other international legal mechanisms, such as glaciers mass loss 54-57% 31-66% 50-78% the Convention on Biological Diversity and the 41% drop in annual runoff Discharge reduction and runoff in Central Asia Convention to Combat Desertification, to which the decline in Central Asia Water countries of Central Asia are parties. The majority of 30-60 days peak shifts* Glaciers countries have undertaken commitments to mitigate in Syr Darya basin the consequences of climate change and adapt to Desertification threatens wheat yields in Kazakhstan them through the Intended Nationally Determined 20-57% yield Food loss in Uzbekistan Contributions (INDC) they have submitted to Heat stress threatens wheat 30% yield loss in Tajikistan yields in Kazakhstan the UNFCCC.
Projec
Water
Tenfold increase in mudflow risk in Kazakhstan
Health Energy
2.58% increase in hydropower potential in Central Asia
* Warming levels are relative to pre-industrial temperatures. ** From the current spring/early summer towards a late winter/early spring runoff regime.
In addition, all five Central Asian countries are experiencing an increased number of extreme weather events and natural disasters affecting human safety and national economies. Every year these disasters inflict significant damage on settlements, agricultural land and infrastructure.
Source : Reyer et al., 2015.
Food Table by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
At the regional level, three Central Asian countries with alpine ecosystems – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – adopted the Bishkek Mountain Platform at the Bishkek Global Mountain Summit in 2002. The Platform provides a framework for further action towards strengthened management of mountain regions and creates an environment for resolving climate change related problems.
agroforestry, which may become more feasible in The pivotal moment was, however, the 2009 Summit certain areas due to shifts in climate zones or changes of the International Fund for saving the Aral Sea in amount of precipitation. Climate change can Health (IFAS). This is when the importance of climate change also play a catalysing role for the development of issues was recognized at the regional level. Prior to adaptation practices designed towards more effective 2010 the main focus of IFAS and its subsidiary bodies use of natural resources and improved management (the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination practices in various spheres of human activity. Energy [ICWC] and ICSD) was the use of water resources Opportunities associated with climate and environmental protection without taking into change Dealing with climate change at the account climate change issues. Today in Central Asia, political level the negative consequences of climate change have This Outlook that in some cases climate *recognizes Warming levels are relativ been recognised to affect the water sector, agriculture, change also creates new opportunities in certain The countries of Central Asia have recognised climate ** From the current spring/e human health, the health of natural ecosystems, economic sectors. One of the few examples is change as a significant threat to ecosystems and 10
Impact of climate change on wheat productivity at different sites in Central Asia
Petropavlovsk Kostanay
Lake Seletyteniz
ol
Tob
Agro-ecological zones
m
Ishi
Sites Rainfed
Semi-arid
Rainfed and irrigated
Sub-humid
Irrigated
Ur
r Tu
y
ys
Astana
Lake Tengiz
ga
al
Arid
Irt
Vozdvijhenka
Lake Zaysan
KAZAKHSTAN
No data
Lake Balkhash
Salt lake
Lake Alakol
ARAL SEA
Note: The names of sites (experimental stations) do not correspond to the names of settlements. KyrNIIZ - the experimental station of Kyrgyz Research Institute of Crop Husbandry; Uchkhoz - the experimental station of the Kyrgyz Agrarian Academy.
Sy rD
Change of wheat yield (%)
Kapchagay
Shieli
Lake Sarygamysh
Bishkek KyrNIIZ Lake Issyk-Kul KYRGYZSTAN
27%
Akaltyn Kushmanata
a
Ashgabat
Akkavak
Lake Aydarkul
ar y
TURKMENISTAN
4%
26%
Tashkent Spitamen
Kuva
0
21.2 19.8 19
22% 18% 14%
14%
5.9 7 5.2 4.5
5.1 6 4.4
7.1
6.5 5.6 4.9
7.6
7.6 6.5 5.6 4.9
8.5 7.7 6.9 6.3
8.7 7.7 7.1 6.2
8.1 7.1 6.4
9.2
10.3 9.3 8.4 7.8
11.3 10 8.9 8.1
4%
7.6 6.7
8.6
H I M L
H I M L
KyrNIIZ Zhany-Pakhta Uchkhoz
7.2
11.2 10.1 10.2 9 9% 8.59.1 8
11.6 10.5 9.7 8.9
Daniyar
H I M L
Khorasan
KYRGYZSTAN Sources : Bobojanov et al., 2014; Sommer et al., 2012, 2013.
H I M L
Bakht
H I M L
Spitamen
TAJIKISTAN -3%
H I M L
H I M L
H I M L
Shahristan Faizabad Kushmanata
22.3 20.9 19.9
24
H I M L
Akkavak
H I M L
Akaltyn
H I M L
UZBEKISTAN
Kuva
H I M L
Khorezm
22.9 21.6 20.8
24.3
10% 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.2
1% H I M L
22.7
15%
12.8 11.7 10.7 10
2.9
0% H I M L
200 km
Shahristan Dushanbe Faizabad TAJIKISTAN Khorasan Bakht 25%
24%
10%
Reservoir
Daniyar Uchkhoz
Khorezm
uD
Historic, 1961-1990 Immediate future, 2011-2040 Miedium-term future, 2041-2070 Long-term future, 2071-2100
a
UZBEKISTAN
Am
Average temperature during vegetative growth for four periods (t°C)
a ry
Zhany-Pakhta
CASPIAN SEA
KaraBogaz-Gol
H I M L
h
H I M L
5%
5%
H I M L
H I M L
H I M L
Shieli Petropavlovsk Vozdvizhenka Kostanay
KAZAKHSTAN Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
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Some animal species areas in Central Asia included in the IUCN Red List
KAZAKHSTAN
Snow leopard UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
Panthera uncia Endangered
KYRGYZSTAN
Extant Probably Extant
TAJIKISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
Argali
Ovis ammon Near Threatened UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
energy, transport and disaster risk management. However, over the last decade, increasing priority has been given to mitigation measures of climate change. This thematic focus continues to be reflected in the greater number of realised mitigation projects compared to adaptation initiatives.
Challenges at the institutional level Adaptation to climate change is not only of concern to ecologists, it touches upon all aspects of human activity and will therefore have an impact on every economic sector in the region. This report highlights the close interrelationship between ecosystems and sectors of the economy (energy, agriculture, mining, tourism) which are vulnerable to climate change, as well as health issues in the context of the impact of climate change.
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
Siberian ibex
Capra sibirica Least concern
UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
Tolai hare
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
Lepus tolai Least concern
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
Source : IUCN Red List. Maps by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
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Altai marmot
Marmota baibacina Least concern
Grape field in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Some countries in the region are attempting to develop sectoral programmes and action plans to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The implementation of such programmes and plans however, remains at an early stage. Specific strategies and programmes with concrete recommendations and practical measures for adaptation have emerged only in the last few years. However, they still face the problem of integration into national and sectoral development programmes. Moreover, some Central Asian countries do not have effective cross-sectoral coordinating bodies to provide general guiding principles for policy, determine the priority areas for action, allocate sufficient resources and monitor the coordinated and systematic implementation of policies,
programmes and investment as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation work. Moreover, the low coordination and synergy between existing institutional structures pose a serious challenge for national and regional cooperation in the area of climate change adaptation. Although climate change issues concern a wide range of relevant ministries and agencies of the Central Asian countries, decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation most often fall under the remit and responsibility of state environmental protection authorities. Taking into account the limited influence that these authorities have on overall development policy compared with other state bodies, climate change issues do not receive sufficient attention from decision-makers involved
in development matters. Another important issue identified in the Outlook is the lack of specialised climate change laws in environmental legislation and the failure of bylaws to cover climate change issues, particularly those concerning adaptation.
Challenges for climate change adaptation at the local level This Outlook reveals a low level of awareness among local communities and farmers with regards to both climate change and adaptation. Awareness raising initiatives often prove insufficient to convey fully to rural communities the significance of climate change issues and the need to introduce agricultural practices which are better adapted to a changing climate, particularly in mountain regions.
The report also points out the inadequate attention paid by governments to supporting rural populations in adapting to climate change. Rural communities need new methods, technologies and investment to have access to agricultural crops suited to local conditions and capable of increasing returns even when water supply is less dependable and consistent. In addition, mechanisms for crop insurance are needed to protect farmers from the devastating economic losses caused by adverse climate conditions. The main burden of maintaining households in rural areas most often falls on women. This is due to the outmigration of the working population, primarily men, in order to earn money in other cities and countries. Consequently, rural women in the region have to take on an active role as smallholder farmers. This role helps to ensure food security for their households. As a rule, however, these women do not have the right to a voice in the decision-making process. At this point, it is essential to recognise, support and increase women’s role in decisionmaking, and include them when defining the priorities for agricultural research and development.
Challenges with monitoring, data collection and scientific research
Hissar Range, Uzbekistan
A substantial amount of information about the environment is being collected in Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, there is no single, coordinated database to facilitate access to accurate environmental data, particularly on the impact of climate change in mountain ecosystems. The Outlook also notes the lack of extensive scientific research and monitoring of surface and ground water, or the impact of climate change on water management and agriculture. This speaks to the need to develop tools for assessing climate change vulnerability, with a focus on evaluating economic losses. 13
Recommended measures for adaptation in the mountain regions of Central Asia The proposed recommendations aim to strengthen adaptation to climate change in various sectors of the economy and include issues related to the policy and legislation frameworks, and institutional organisation. The development and strengthening of climate change adaptation measures in both mountain and plain regions will contribute to the sustainable development of Central Asia, provided there is coordination at local, national and regional levels.
Institutional framework
Policy and legislation
Strengthen institutional capacity to support or create a well-functioning structure for adaptation to climate change, notably through consolidating existing bodies, or creating new bodies in the field of climate change and by supporting cross-sectoral integration of climate change adaptation at the national level;
Introduce long-term, cross-sectoral policies (involving civil society in its development process), taking into account climate change trends and the prevention of key risks as well as ensure the development, integration and proper implementation of a legal and regulatory framework related to climate change adaptation;
Establish specialized cross-sectoral bodies (for example, commissions, working groups) that will facilitate increased coordination of activities and synergies between various institutions.
Promote implementation of climate change adaptation policy and develop climate change adaptation measures, with special focus on Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA), including within mountain ecosystems, and targeting the most vulnerable society groups; Develop or integrate mechanisms for policy assessments into the monitoring process (integration of targeted policies, evaluation indicators, etc.).
14
Awareness raising and capacity building Provide access to information at the local community level and to the general public, to increase public awareness; Develop measures to build capacity at various levels and for various partners to ensure that they have the up to date information and research results, and use communication tools to reach out to a wider audience.
Regional level Promote a regional approach for climate change adaptation, coordinated with other environmental frameworks and development processes, including the exchange of data and information, methodologies for assessments, climate monitoring, and coordination of actions on the ground in Central Asian countries; Support in particular the EbA approach to climate change adaptation, informed by the outcomes and successes of other relevant initiatives and projects; Improve the institutional capacity of regional bodies on climate change adaptation issues.
Agriculture, Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan
15
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16
Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Central Asian mountains EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
This Outlook has been developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) in the context of the inter-regional project “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective” that is financially co-supported by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW). This Outlook builds on the main findings and results available through conducted projects and is based on available literature and latest national and regional documents, such as national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is based on the review of existing literature and information received during consultations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2–3 September 2015, and 19-20 December 2016 with the involvement of designated governmental experts from the Central Asia countries and representatives of the international organisations. The Outlook has also been supported by the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD) through its Decision 6, April 2014, Dushanbe, Tajikistan; Decision 7, June 2015, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan; Decision 2, May 2016, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Disclaimer The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of UN Environment, donor organizations or any governmental authority or institution with which authors or contributors are affiliated and neither do they imply any endorsement. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct and properly referenced, UN Environment does not bear any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned through the use of the contents of this publication. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UN Environment or the donor organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Title in Russian: Адаптация к изменению климата в горных районах Центральной Азии Maps and graphics: Manana Kurtubadze Photo credits: 1 iStock/MisoKnitl; 5 iStock/AlexBrylov; 6 iStock/ Олег Елагин; 7 iStock/Knighterrant; 12 iStock/cartela 13 iStock/ AL-Travelpicture; 15 iStock/Anorthco; 16 iStock/MisoKnitl Front cover photo: Fedchenko glacier, Tajikistan Back cover photo: Tajikistan
Mention of a commercial company or product in this publication does not imply endorsement by UN Environment. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UN Environment would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.
2
Zholdosheva, E., Rucevska, I., Semernya, L., Dairov, I., Kozhakhmetov, P., Barieva, A., Maskaev, A., Mitrofanenko, T., Alekseeva, N., 2017. Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Central Asian Mountains. Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series. UN Environment, GRID-Arendal, RMCCA. Nairobi, Vienna, Arendal, Bishkek. www.unep.org, www.grida.no.
UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. This publication is printed on fully recycled paper, FSC certified, post-consumer waste and chlorinefree. Inks are vegetable-based and coatings are waterbased. UNEP’s distribution policy aims to reduce its carbon footprint.
Foreword The five states of Central Asia are already being hit by climate change. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are experiencing detrimental changes in water distribution, extreme weather, natural hazards, and unique mountain biodiversity. This report highlights the risks to the region’s security and economy and recommends practical ways to increase resilience using ecosystembased adaptation measures. Mountain ecosystems enrich the lives of over half the world’s population. They provide essential goods and services like water, energy and agriculture. However, rising temperatures and changing weather patterns affect forests, grasslands and lakes. Pollution from mining and agriculture erode their ability to cope with the changes. Dependent populations are increasingly susceptible to the resulting damage, especially when they are isolated from other markets and services. Yet, despite such particular vulnerability to climate change, mountain areas rarely receive appropriate attention from policy makers.
Take the Vanj Valley. It‘s a remote, mountainous and sparsely populated region in the Western Pamir of Tajikistan. At 1,500–2,500 metres above sea level, local people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and forests for clean water and protection against erosion, flooding and mudflows. As temperatures increase so do the risks from glacier melt, dam bursts and drought, which can damage infrastructure and those vital forests. But Tajikistan has yet to develop a climate strategy and in such areas, limited access to services and institutional structures makes it difficult to adapt to change. The practical advice in this report is designed to help with exactly that kind of situation. For example, joint forest and ecosystem management is making the Vanj Valley more resilient to climate change and providing more sustainable natural resources to support livelihoods. A local NGO, CAMP Tabiat, and the German Corporation for International Development are working with government, scientists and the local community to protect and restore forests. They are using drought-resistant crops, microfinance and annual planning to manage the forests. Efforts in other
Erik Solheim Executive Director UN Environment
areas, like flood defences, have not yet been successful because of difficulties in engaging local communities. One of the lessons drawn from the project is that the topic of climate change needs to be carefully introduced and differentiated from non-climate risks. Otherwise it can distract people from existing problems or overload them with too many complex issues. That’s just one of many such examples, because this report is part of the Mountain Adaptation Outlook series for Central Asia, Eastern Africa, Southern Caucasus, (tropical) Andes and Western Balkans. The collection provides a unique and practical companion for local, regional and national policy makers seeking to protect fragile mountain ecosystems and the people who depend on them. The broad assessments by governments and experts are invaluable, but I would particularly like to thank GRID-Arendal and the Government of Austria for their additional support in bringing the reports to life. I hope the resulting benefits for people in the mountains of Central Asia will show how worthwhile an effort this is.
H.E. Andrä Rupprechter Austrian Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management 3
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Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
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Physical map of Central Asia
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7134 Avicenna Peak, m Depression, m -132
Executive Summary Central Asia comprises a vast area stretching from the Western Siberian lowlands to the Tian Shan and Pamir mountain ranges and from the Altai to the Caspian Sea. Its topography is characterised by vast deserts and mountainous regions. In total, 20 per cent of the approximately four million square kilometres that make up Central Asia is covered by mountains. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are mountainous countries, with more than 90 per cent of their respective territories covered by mountains. The mountainous regions of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan make up between 5 and 20 per cent of their total territories.
to climate change, which manifests in a rising annual average temperature. Such raise in temperature will have a mainly negative impact on the region.
The region’s location in the centre of the Eurasian landmass, far from humid ocean currents, determines its arid climate and results in a rich diversity of landscapes, with more than twenty different ecosystems. Because of these specific features, the countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are among those most vulnerable
National and regional research conducted in Central Asia suggests that the region is experiencing an overall warming in climate, with a 0.5°C increase in the annual average temperature over the past 30 years. Precipitation records show greater disparities than temperature data, with significant variations across the region, including in mountainous areas.
According to the research conducted by the World Bank in 2009 in 28 countries in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have the highest degree of vulnerability to climate change. This is an alarming trend, highlighting the particular vulnerability of the mountain ecosystems of Central Asia to climate change in comparison to other mountainous regions of the Eurasian continent.
Global climate change influences glaciers and water resources in the region’s mountain areas. It presents an acute and urgent need to research and analyse the impact of climate change on humans, ecosystems and economies of countries in the region, and to consider what climate change related policies these countries should adopt.
Observed climat
Observed climate change and scenarios for Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed Scenarios
Observed
Scenarios
Temperature
Temperature Extreme temperature (+)
Extreme temperature (+) Precipitation
Extreme precipitation
Precipitation Increasing trend
Decreasing trend
Mixed trend
No data
Extreme precipitation
Sources : National Communications: 3rd-6th of Kazakhstan, 2013; 2nd of Kyrgyzstan, 2009; 3rd of Tajikistan, 2014; 3rd of Turkmenistan, 2015; 2nd of Uzbekistan, 2008.
Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Moraine glacial lake, Kyrgyzstan
Increasing 5
Sources : National Communications: 3rd-6th of Kazakhsta
Purpose and methodology of the Outlook The Outlook focuses on the impacts of climate change on people, ecosystems and the economies of the Central Asian countries and proposes that a development of climate change policies in these countries is essential. The Outlook synthesizes the existing information on current trends and challenges in terms of climate change adaptation in mountain regions of Central Asia, based on the most recent
academic literature as well as on consultations with various governmental and non-governmental experts from the Central Asian region and beyond. It identifies gaps and concrete needs in terms of climate change adaptation and provides a set of recommendations for concrete policy action. The Outlook is intended for a broad audience of experts and specialists, civil society representatives and donor organisations as well as decision-makers
from various sectors. It seeks to encourage crosssectoral dialogue on climate change adaptation. The Outlook is the result of an extensive assessment process which included surveys and a broad literature review encompassing latest research and existing policy documents on the impact of climate change in Central Asia. The assessment was based on a ranking of current climate vulnerability and the potential impact of natural disasters (e.g. drought, flooding), which
Potential and current hydropower production and current energy demand GWh 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Tajikistan
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Potential hydroresource
Pamir mountains, Tajikistan
6
No data for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
Energy Power generation consumption by HPP
Sources : State statistical services of Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan; www.cawater-info.net; www.effectenergy.eu; www.indexmundi.com; www.kegoc.kz; www.tajhydro.tj; UNDP 2011; Yasinskiy et al., 2013. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
could impede sustainable development, in particular when combating poverty, developing infrastructure, energy and agriculture and ensuring food security. The Outlook was discussed at two regional consultation meetings held in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in 2015 and 2016. The development of the Outlook was reviewed and acknowledged by the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD). The Outlook is one of the outcomes of the “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective” project, which is being implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) with support from the Government of Austria. This project seeks to support mountainous countries in five sub-regions (Central Asia, East Africa, South Caucasus, Tropical Andes and Western Balkans) to integrate climate change adaptation issues into their development strategies, plans and programmes. The partners of UN Environment in preparing the Outlook for Central Asia were: Regional Mountain Centre for Central Asia (RMCCA) and GRID-Arendal.
4%
Annual freshwater withdrawal by sectors in 2013 3%
5% 4%
3% 3%
7%
4%
93%
91%
94%
90%
3%
30%
66%
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Agriculture
Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Industry
Source: www.data.worldbank.org Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Domestic
Kyrgyzstan
7
Key findings of the Outlook Consequences of climate change One of the consequences of climate change is that ecosystem zones (forests, pastures, etc.) move vertically upwards in mountainous regions. At the same time, there is displacement, and changes in composition, abundance and distribution of animal and plant species, which can impact agricultural
activity in mountain regions, resulting in changes in pasture and crop rotation practices. The increase in temperature and changes of precipitation patterns lead to changes in the hydrological regime and a reduction in water resources. The projected reduction in water resources is aggravated by rising demand due to population growth. The importance of mountain
ecosystems as ‘water towers’ in Central Asia is growing, particularly in the context of climate change. However, the decline in glacial and snow reserves is also taking its toll on the accessibility of water resources which are essential to energy production and agriculture. This significantly impacts not only mountain communities but also the ones downstream, on the plains - in the steppe semi-desert and desert areas.
Current and projected data for the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya Average water demand and unmet demand
Average flow m³/sec
Syr Darya
7,000
2001-2010
6,000
2014-2050
5,000
mln m³ 70,000 60,000 50,000
Syr Darya Basin Annual water demand Annual unmet demand
Inflow in 2001-2050
600 500
4,000
40,000
400
3,000
30,000
300
2,000
20,000
200
1,000
10,000
100
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
Toktogul Reservoir, Syr Darya Basin
m³/sec 700
0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
2001-2010 2041-2050
Base flow m³/sec
Amu Darya
7,000
2001-2010
6,000
2014-2050
5,000
60,000 50,000
Amu Darya Basin Annual water demand Annual unmet demand
400
3,000
30,000
300
2,000
20,000
200
1,000
10,000
100
Source : Asian Development Bank, 2014.
0
2001-2010 2041-2050
Snow melt
Rain
Nurek Reservoir, Amu Darya Basin
500
40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Glacier melt
600
4,000
0
8
mln m³ 70,000
m³/sec 700
0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Graphs by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Ecoregions of Central Asia 5 Petropavlovsk Kustanau
To
5
Ishim
Aktobe
Astana
Pavlodar
5 Oskemen
Lake Tengiz
l
4
Ura
4
sh
b
Oral
Irty
Lake Seletyteniz
ol
Lake Zaysan
Karaghandy
2
2
3
Emba
Atyrau
10
10
KAZAKHSTAN Lake Balkhash
2
Lake Alakol
ARAL SEA
9 1
7
1
Aktau
Kyzyl Orda
4 Kapchagay Reservoir
7 Almaty
1
6
Ashgabat
Bukhara
r ya
Balkanabat
Da
TURKMENISTAN
Urganch
u Am
6
UZBEKISTAN
Samarkand
Turkmenabat
Karshi
Mary 0
200 km 2
Source: Central Asia Atlas of Natural Resources, ADB, 2010. Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
Lake Aydarkul
4
Shymkent
8
Bishkek
Lake 4 Issyk-Kul 9 KYRGYZSTAN Tashkent Jalalabad Ferghana Osh Kokand
11
Dushanbe
7 Kurgan-Tyube Pa n
8
9
7
j
Dashoguz Lake Sarygamysh
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Nukus
Turkmenbashi
2
ar rD
7 KaraBogaz-Gol
4
Sy
CASPIAN SEA
Talas
12 TAJIKISTAN 11 Khorog
Karakol 9
1
Desert
2
Semidesert
3
Semidesert and steppe
4
Steppe
5
Forest steppe
6
Forest steppe and woodland
7
Woodland
8
Conifer forest
9
Montane steppe and meadow
10
Alpine meadow and tundra
11
Alpine desert and tundra
12
Glacier Salt lake
9
populations, and have demonstrated commitment at the national level to address global climate Projected impact of climate change in key sectors of Central Asia change. All five countries are members of the United across different global warming levels* Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1°C (≈2010s) 1.5°C (≈2030s) 2°C (≈2040s) 3°C (≈2060s) 4°C (≈2080s) 5°C (UNFCCC), they have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and have signed the Paris Agreement. The latter, 1°C Heat Land area affected 15% 30% 70% 80% extremes however, has only been ratified and entered into force in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Heat Central Asian glacier mass loss Climate change is also a priority in the context L Glaciers 31% of Tien Shan extremes of other international legal mechanisms, such as glaciers mass loss 54-57% 31-66% 50-78% the Convention on Biological Diversity and the 41% drop in annual runoff Discharge reduction and runoff in Central Asia Convention to Combat Desertification, to which the decline in Central Asia Water countries of Central Asia are parties. The majority of 30-60 days peak shifts* Glaciers countries have undertaken commitments to mitigate in Syr Darya basin the consequences of climate change and adapt to Desertification threatens wheat yields in Kazakhstan them through the Intended Nationally Determined 20-57% yield Food loss in Uzbekistan Contributions (INDC) they have submitted to Heat stress threatens wheat 30% yield loss in Tajikistan yields in Kazakhstan the UNFCCC.
Projec
Water
Tenfold increase in mudflow risk in Kazakhstan
Health Energy
2.58% increase in hydropower potential in Central Asia
* Warming levels are relative to pre-industrial temperatures. ** From the current spring/early summer towards a late winter/early spring runoff regime.
In addition, all five Central Asian countries are experiencing an increased number of extreme weather events and natural disasters affecting human safety and national economies. Every year these disasters inflict significant damage on settlements, agricultural land and infrastructure.
Source : Reyer et al., 2015.
Food Table by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
At the regional level, three Central Asian countries with alpine ecosystems – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – adopted the Bishkek Mountain Platform at the Bishkek Global Mountain Summit in 2002. The Platform provides a framework for further action towards strengthened management of mountain regions and creates an environment for resolving climate change related problems.
agroforestry, which may become more feasible in The pivotal moment was, however, the 2009 Summit certain areas due to shifts in climate zones or changes of the International Fund for saving the Aral Sea in amount of precipitation. Climate change can Health (IFAS). This is when the importance of climate change also play a catalysing role for the development of issues was recognized at the regional level. Prior to adaptation practices designed towards more effective 2010 the main focus of IFAS and its subsidiary bodies use of natural resources and improved management (the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination practices in various spheres of human activity. Energy [ICWC] and ICSD) was the use of water resources Opportunities associated with climate and environmental protection without taking into change Dealing with climate change at the account climate change issues. Today in Central Asia, political level the negative consequences of climate change have This Outlook that in some cases climate *recognizes Warming levels are relativ been recognised to affect the water sector, agriculture, change also creates new opportunities in certain The countries of Central Asia have recognised climate ** From the current spring/e human health, the health of natural ecosystems, economic sectors. One of the few examples is change as a significant threat to ecosystems and 10
Impact of climate change on wheat productivity at different sites in Central Asia
Petropavlovsk Kostanay
Lake Seletyteniz
ol
Tob
Agro-ecological zones
m
Ishi
Sites Rainfed
Semi-arid
Rainfed and irrigated
Sub-humid
Irrigated
Ur
r Tu
y
ys
Astana
Lake Tengiz
ga
al
Arid
Irt
Vozdvijhenka
Lake Zaysan
KAZAKHSTAN
No data
Lake Balkhash
Salt lake
Lake Alakol
ARAL SEA
Note: The names of sites (experimental stations) do not correspond to the names of settlements. KyrNIIZ - the experimental station of Kyrgyz Research Institute of Crop Husbandry; Uchkhoz - the experimental station of the Kyrgyz Agrarian Academy.
Sy rD
Change of wheat yield (%)
Kapchagay
Shieli
Lake Sarygamysh
Bishkek KyrNIIZ Lake Issyk-Kul KYRGYZSTAN
27%
Akaltyn Kushmanata
a
Ashgabat
Akkavak
Lake Aydarkul
ar y
TURKMENISTAN
4%
26%
Tashkent Spitamen
Kuva
0
21.2 19.8 19
22% 18% 14%
14%
5.9 7 5.2 4.5
5.1 6 4.4
7.1
6.5 5.6 4.9
7.6
7.6 6.5 5.6 4.9
8.5 7.7 6.9 6.3
8.7 7.7 7.1 6.2
8.1 7.1 6.4
9.2
10.3 9.3 8.4 7.8
11.3 10 8.9 8.1
4%
7.6 6.7
8.6
H I M L
H I M L
KyrNIIZ Zhany-Pakhta Uchkhoz
7.2
11.2 10.1 10.2 9 9% 8.59.1 8
11.6 10.5 9.7 8.9
Daniyar
H I M L
Khorasan
KYRGYZSTAN Sources : Bobojanov et al., 2014; Sommer et al., 2012, 2013.
H I M L
Bakht
H I M L
Spitamen
TAJIKISTAN -3%
H I M L
H I M L
H I M L
Shahristan Faizabad Kushmanata
22.3 20.9 19.9
24
H I M L
Akkavak
H I M L
Akaltyn
H I M L
UZBEKISTAN
Kuva
H I M L
Khorezm
22.9 21.6 20.8
24.3
10% 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.2
1% H I M L
22.7
15%
12.8 11.7 10.7 10
2.9
0% H I M L
200 km
Shahristan Dushanbe Faizabad TAJIKISTAN Khorasan Bakht 25%
24%
10%
Reservoir
Daniyar Uchkhoz
Khorezm
uD
Historic, 1961-1990 Immediate future, 2011-2040 Miedium-term future, 2041-2070 Long-term future, 2071-2100
a
UZBEKISTAN
Am
Average temperature during vegetative growth for four periods (t°C)
a ry
Zhany-Pakhta
CASPIAN SEA
KaraBogaz-Gol
H I M L
h
H I M L
5%
5%
H I M L
H I M L
H I M L
Shieli Petropavlovsk Vozdvizhenka Kostanay
KAZAKHSTAN Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
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Some animal species areas in Central Asia included in the IUCN Red List
KAZAKHSTAN
Snow leopard UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
Panthera uncia Endangered
KYRGYZSTAN
Extant Probably Extant
TAJIKISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
Argali
Ovis ammon Near Threatened UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
energy, transport and disaster risk management. However, over the last decade, increasing priority has been given to mitigation measures of climate change. This thematic focus continues to be reflected in the greater number of realised mitigation projects compared to adaptation initiatives.
Challenges at the institutional level Adaptation to climate change is not only of concern to ecologists, it touches upon all aspects of human activity and will therefore have an impact on every economic sector in the region. This report highlights the close interrelationship between ecosystems and sectors of the economy (energy, agriculture, mining, tourism) which are vulnerable to climate change, as well as health issues in the context of the impact of climate change.
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
Siberian ibex
Capra sibirica Least concern
UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
Tolai hare
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN
Lepus tolai Least concern
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
Source : IUCN Red List. Maps by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.
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Altai marmot
Marmota baibacina Least concern
Grape field in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Some countries in the region are attempting to develop sectoral programmes and action plans to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The implementation of such programmes and plans however, remains at an early stage. Specific strategies and programmes with concrete recommendations and practical measures for adaptation have emerged only in the last few years. However, they still face the problem of integration into national and sectoral development programmes. Moreover, some Central Asian countries do not have effective cross-sectoral coordinating bodies to provide general guiding principles for policy, determine the priority areas for action, allocate sufficient resources and monitor the coordinated and systematic implementation of policies,
programmes and investment as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation work. Moreover, the low coordination and synergy between existing institutional structures pose a serious challenge for national and regional cooperation in the area of climate change adaptation. Although climate change issues concern a wide range of relevant ministries and agencies of the Central Asian countries, decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation most often fall under the remit and responsibility of state environmental protection authorities. Taking into account the limited influence that these authorities have on overall development policy compared with other state bodies, climate change issues do not receive sufficient attention from decision-makers involved
in development matters. Another important issue identified in the Outlook is the lack of specialised climate change laws in environmental legislation and the failure of bylaws to cover climate change issues, particularly those concerning adaptation.
Challenges for climate change adaptation at the local level This Outlook reveals a low level of awareness among local communities and farmers with regards to both climate change and adaptation. Awareness raising initiatives often prove insufficient to convey fully to rural communities the significance of climate change issues and the need to introduce agricultural practices which are better adapted to a changing climate, particularly in mountain regions.
The report also points out the inadequate attention paid by governments to supporting rural populations in adapting to climate change. Rural communities need new methods, technologies and investment to have access to agricultural crops suited to local conditions and capable of increasing returns even when water supply is less dependable and consistent. In addition, mechanisms for crop insurance are needed to protect farmers from the devastating economic losses caused by adverse climate conditions. The main burden of maintaining households in rural areas most often falls on women. This is due to the outmigration of the working population, primarily men, in order to earn money in other cities and countries. Consequently, rural women in the region have to take on an active role as smallholder farmers. This role helps to ensure food security for their households. As a rule, however, these women do not have the right to a voice in the decision-making process. At this point, it is essential to recognise, support and increase women’s role in decisionmaking, and include them when defining the priorities for agricultural research and development.
Challenges with monitoring, data collection and scientific research
Hissar Range, Uzbekistan
A substantial amount of information about the environment is being collected in Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, there is no single, coordinated database to facilitate access to accurate environmental data, particularly on the impact of climate change in mountain ecosystems. The Outlook also notes the lack of extensive scientific research and monitoring of surface and ground water, or the impact of climate change on water management and agriculture. This speaks to the need to develop tools for assessing climate change vulnerability, with a focus on evaluating economic losses. 13
Recommended measures for adaptation in the mountain regions of Central Asia The proposed recommendations aim to strengthen adaptation to climate change in various sectors of the economy and include issues related to the policy and legislation frameworks, and institutional organisation. The development and strengthening of climate change adaptation measures in both mountain and plain regions will contribute to the sustainable development of Central Asia, provided there is coordination at local, national and regional levels.
Institutional framework
Policy and legislation
Strengthen institutional capacity to support or create a well-functioning structure for adaptation to climate change, notably through consolidating existing bodies, or creating new bodies in the field of climate change and by supporting cross-sectoral integration of climate change adaptation at the national level;
Introduce long-term, cross-sectoral policies (involving civil society in its development process), taking into account climate change trends and the prevention of key risks as well as ensure the development, integration and proper implementation of a legal and regulatory framework related to climate change adaptation;
Establish specialized cross-sectoral bodies (for example, commissions, working groups) that will facilitate increased coordination of activities and synergies between various institutions.
Promote implementation of climate change adaptation policy and develop climate change adaptation measures, with special focus on Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA), including within mountain ecosystems, and targeting the most vulnerable society groups; Develop or integrate mechanisms for policy assessments into the monitoring process (integration of targeted policies, evaluation indicators, etc.).
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Awareness raising and capacity building Provide access to information at the local community level and to the general public, to increase public awareness; Develop measures to build capacity at various levels and for various partners to ensure that they have the up to date information and research results, and use communication tools to reach out to a wider audience.
Regional level Promote a regional approach for climate change adaptation, coordinated with other environmental frameworks and development processes, including the exchange of data and information, methodologies for assessments, climate monitoring, and coordination of actions on the ground in Central Asian countries; Support in particular the EbA approach to climate change adaptation, informed by the outcomes and successes of other relevant initiatives and projects; Improve the institutional capacity of regional bodies on climate change adaptation issues.
Agriculture, Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan
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