PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT
FINAL
PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT
Buffalo Bill Cody Historical Home
July 6, 2010
July 6, 2010 FINAL
PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT Prepared for:
Forward Cody Wyoming, Inc. 1131 13th Street #106 Cody, WY 82414 307-587-3136
Prepared by:
Pedersen Planning Consultants
P. O. Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Tel: 307-327-5434 Email: [email protected] Website: www.pedersenplanning.com
PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT Final Report – July 6, 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter
Title
ONE 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4.1 1.4.2
INTRODUCTION PURPOSE SCOPE REPORT ORGANIZATION CONSULTATION Park County Housing Committee Other Sources of Information
1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-4 1-4 1-4
TWO 2.1 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.2 2.3 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.3.4 2.4 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS RECENT POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION Resident Population in April 2000 Recent Population Growth AGE CHARACTERISTICS FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS Number of Households Family Households Non-Family Households Average Household and Family Size WORKFORCE TRENDS Employed Workforce Unemployment Primary Sources of Employment
2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-3 2-3 2-3 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-5
2.5 2.5.1 2.5.2 2.5.3 2.5.4 2.5.5 2.6 2.6.1 2.6.2 2.6.3 2.7 2.7.1
INDUSTRY TRENDS Government Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Services Educational Services INCOME General Private Sector Public Sector FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH Alternate Approaches Used to Calculate Future Growth
2-7 2-7 2-8 2-10 2-10 2-11 2-11 2-11 2-13 2-13 2-13 2-13
2.4.3.1 2.4.3.2 2.4.3.3 2.4.3.4
Page No.
Government Retail Trade Accommodations and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Services
-i-
2-5 2-5 2-7 2-7
Chapter
Title
Page No.
2.7.1.1 2.7.1.2 2.7.1.3
Time Series Analysis Cohort Survival Method Employment-Based Analysis
2-14 2-14 2-14
2.7.2
Population Forecast
How Future Growth Was Calculated Anticipated Population Growth
2-15 2-15
THREE 3.1 3.2 3.2.1
COMMUNITY HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS INTRODUCTION SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF AVAILABLE HOUSING City of Cody
3-1 3-1 3-1 3-2
3.2.2
City of Powell
3-8
3.2.3
Town of Meeteetse
3-13
3.3 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.2.1 3.4.2.2 3.4.3
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS Types of Households Household Size Home Occupancy COST AND AVAILABILITY OF HOUSING Introduction Cody Residential Property Trends within the City of Cody Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Cody Powell
3-15 3-15 3-15 3-15 3-16 3-16 3-16 3-16 3-18 3-20
3.4.4
Town of Meeteetse
3.5 3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3
AVAILABILITY AND COST OF RENTAL HOUSING Size of Available Rental Inventory Cost of Rental Housing Rental Housing Market Trends
2.7.2.1 27.2.2.
3.2.1.1 3.2.1.2 3.2.1.3 3.2.1.4 3.2.1.5 3.2.2.1 3.2.2.2 3.2.2.3 3.2.2.4 3.2.2.5 3.2.3.1 3.2.3.2 3.2.3.3 3.2.3.4 3.2.3.5
3.4.3.1 3.4.3.2 3.4.4.1 3.4.4.2
Single-Family Homes Townhomes/Duplexes Residential Apartments Mobile Homes Recreational Vehicles Single-Family Homes Townhomes/Duplexes Residential Apartments Mobile Homes Recreational Vehicles
2-15
3-2 3-5 3-5 3-5 3-8
3-8 3-12 3-12 3-12 3-13
Single-Family Homes Townhomes/Duplexes Residential Apartments Mobile Homes Recreational Vehicles
3-13 3-13 3-13 3-13 3-15
Residential Property Trends in the City of Powell Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Powell
3-20 3-21
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Available Inventory
3-23 3-25
- ii -
3-23
3-25 3-25 3-25 3-26
Chapter
Title
FOUR 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3.1
HOUSING DEMANDS AND OTHER HOUSING NEEDS INTRODUCTION HOUSING DEMAND MODEL AND RELATED ASSUMPTIONS HOME SALES MARKET Housing Preferences
4-1 4-1 4-1 4-2 4-2
4.3.2
Demand for Home Purchase
4-2
RENTAL MARKET Market Preferences
4-7 4-7
4.3.1.1 4.3.1.2 4.3.1.3
Page No.
Detached Single-Family Homes Attached Single-Family Homes Mobile Homes
4.3.2.1 4.3.2.2 4.3.2.3 4.3.2.4
City of Cody City of Powell Town of Meeteetse Unincorporated Area of Park County
4.4.1.1 4.4.1.2 4.4.1.3
Single-Family Homes Apartments Mobile Homes
4.4 4.4.1
4.4.2
4-2 4-2 4-2
4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-8
Demand for Rental Housing
4-8
4.4.2.1 4.4.2.2 4.4.2.3 4.4.2.4
Cody Powell Meeteetse Unincorporated Area of Park County
4-8 4-9 4-9 4-10
4.5.2.1 4.5.2.2
Cody Powell
4-12 4-12
4.5 4.5.1 4.5.2
SENIOR HOUSING Potential Market Available Senior Housing Facilities
4-11 4-11 4-11
4.5.3
Senior Housing Demand
4.5.4 4.6 4.6.1 4.6.2 4.6.3 4.6.4
Senior Housing Needs HOUSING NEEDS FOR LOWER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS General Home Sales Market Rental Housing Demand Housing Needs for Lower Income Households
4-15 4-16 4-16 4-16 4-17 4-18
FIVE 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.3.3
RESIDENTIAL LENDING POLICIES AND HOME AFFORDABILITY INTRODUCTION SOURCES OF HOME FINANCING IN PARK COUNTY RESIDENTIAL LOAN POLICIES General Debt Ratios Credit Scores
5-1 5-1 5-1 5-2 5-2 5-2 5-2
4.5.3.1 4.5.3.2 4.5.3.3 4.5.3.4
4-13
Seniors Requiring No Care Independent Living Assisted Living Long Term Care
-iii-
4-13 4-14 4-14 4-15
Chapter
Title
5.3.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6.1 5.6.2
Interest Rates FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS BRIDGE LOANS AFFORDABILITY OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY Affordability of Home Purchases Affordability of Rental Housing
5-2 5-2 5-3 5-3 5-3 5-5
SIX 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.4 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.5 6.5.1 6.5.2 6.6 6.6.1 6.6.2 6.7 6.7.1 6.7.2 6.8
CONCLUSIONS AND HOUSING STRATEGIES INTRODUCTION FUTURE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT STRATEGIES DEMAND FOR HOUSING Conclusions Strategies AFFORDABLE HOUSING Conclusions Strategies SENIOR HOUSING Conclusions Strategies STUDENT HOUSING AT NORTHWEST COLLEGE Conclusions Strategies LAND USE REGULATIONS AND COMMUNITY GROWTH POLICIES Conclusions Strategies ADVOCACY OF COMMUNITY HOUSING ISSUES AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Conclusions
6-1 6-1 6-1 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-9 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-11 6-11 6-11 6-12
Strategies
6-15
6.8.1
6.8.1.1 6.8.1.2 6.8.2
Page No.
Need for a Community Housing Advocate Maintaining Awareness of Housing Issues and Opportunities
REFERENCES APPENDIX A
MATRIX EVALUATION SHEET AND PROCESS TO DETERMINE PRIORITY OF RECOMMENDED HOUSING OBJECTIVES
- iv -
6-13 6-13
6-13 6-14
LIST OF FIGURES Figure No.
Title
Page No.
1-1
Regional Location, Park County, Wyoming
1-2
2-1
Unemployment Trends in Park County January 2003 through December 2008
2-4
3-1
Wards 1-3, City of Cody
3-3
3-2
Residential Housing, Ward 1, City of Cody, December 2009
3-4
3-3
Residential Housing, Ward 2, City of Cody, December 2009
3-6
3-4
Residential Housing, Ward 3, City of Cody, December 2009
3-7
3-5
Wards 1-3, City of Powell
3-9
3-6
Residential Housing, Wards 1 and 3, City of Powell, December 2009
3-10
3-7
Residential Housing, Ward 2, City of Powell, December 2009
3-11
3-8
Residential Housing, Town of Meeteetse, December 2009
3-14
6-1
Potential Mobile Home Redevelopment Areas, Cody, Wyoming
6-8
-v-
LIST OF TABLES Table No.
Title
Page No.
2-1
Population Distribution Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
2-1
Population Growth Park County, Wyoming, May 2000 Through December 2008
2-1
Population by Selected Age Groups Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
2-2
Community Age Distribution, Selected Age Groups Within Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
2-3
Covered Average Monthly Employment in Park County By NAICS Industries First Quarter 2005 Through First Quarter 2009
2-6
Retail Sales Trends Park County, Wyoming, FY 2005 Through FY 2009
2-8
Retail Leakage by Merchandise Group Park County, Wyoming, 2009
2-9
Accommodation and Food Service Sales Park County, Wyoming, 2005 to 2009
2-10
Average Monthly Income Per Job in Park County Industries First Quarter 2009
2-12
Anticipated Population Growth Park County, Wyoming, 2010-2020
2-15
Type of Housing Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
3-1
Type and Distribution of Housing in Cody, Powell, and Meeteetse December 2009
3-2
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Cody, Wyoming, 2007-2009
3-17
Available Residential Units Cody, Wyoming, April 2010
3-17
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Vicinity of Cody, 2007-2009
3-18
Available Residential Units Vicinity of Cody, April 2010
3-19
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Powell, Wyoming, 2007-2009
3-20
Available Residential Units City of Powell, Wyoming, April 2010
3-21
2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5
2-6 2-7 2-8 2-9 2-10 3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-7 3-8
- vi -
Table No.
Title
Page No.
3-9
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Vicinity of Powell, 2007-2009
3-22
Available Residential Units Vicinity of Powell, April 2010
3-23
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Town of Meeteetse, Wyoming, 2007-2009
3-23
Available Residential Units Town of Meeteetse, April 2010
3-25
Average Rental Housing Costs in Park County Second Quarter 2000 Through Second Quarter 2009
3-26
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand City of Cody, 2010-2020
4-4
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand City of Powell, 2010-2020
4-5
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand Town of Meeteetse, 2010-2020
4-6
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand Unincorporated Park County, 2010-2020
4-7
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand City of Cody, 2010-2020
4-8
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand City of Powell, 2010-2020
4-9
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand Town of Meeteetse, 2010-2020
4-10
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand Unincorporated Park County, 2010-2020
4-10
Senior Housing Demands Park County, 2010-2020
4-14
Anticipated Sales Market Demand By Family Income Ranges, 2010-2020
4-17
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand By Family Income Ranges, 2010-2020
4-18
Income and Debt Levels Desired by Financial Institutions For Conventional Residential Loans
5-4
Affordability of Rental Housing to the Employed Workforce First Quarter 2009
5-6
Cumulative Housing Demands for Park County 2010-2020
6-2
3-10 3-11 3-12 3-13 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-9 4-10 4-11 5-1 5-2 6-1
-vii-
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1
PURPOSE
The intent of the Park County Housing Assessment is to provide insights concerning the availability of housing in the City of Cody, City of Powell, Town of Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County (Figure 1-1); determine potential housing needs in these areas; identify potential housing development opportunities; and outline strategies that can address anticipated housing demands and housing needs. It is envisioned that this information will be of particular interest to elected and community leaders, small business owners, other Park County residents, local and regional lending institutions, local utilities, residential housing developers, real estate developers, real estate brokers, and potential investors seeking to establish or relocate businesses in Park County. 1.2
SCOPE
The preparation of the Housing Assessment involved the completion of several tasks. These tasks generally included the following: • • • • • • • 1.3
Examine demographic and economic trends that are expected to influence the availability and development of housing in Park County. Inventory the type, location and characteristics of improved residential properties. Review and evaluate recent sales trends associated with housing markets in Cody, Powell, Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County. Forecast the type and amount of housing demand between 2010 and 2020. Assess the affordability of housing. Identify and evaluate future housing needs and potential opportunities for future residential development. Outline strategies that address anticipated housing demands and needs to the year 2020. REPORT ORGANIZATION
The Park County Housing Assessment report comprises several chapters. The general scope of each chapter, as well as the approach used to complete related tasks, are described in the following paragraphs. Chapter One presents the purpose and scope of the Park County Housing Assessment, as well as the general content of each chapter within the report. Pedersen Planning Consultants (PPC) also identified those individuals, agencies, and organizations that were consulted during completion of the Housing Assessment.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-1
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Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Riverton Ethete CDP Arapahoe CDP
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Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
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Regional Location Park County, WY
Figure 1-1
Chapter Two provides an overview of selected demographic and economic trends for Park County, as well as the City of Cody, City of Powell, and the Town of Meeteetse. These trends largely focused upon recent changes in population growth. The examination of economic trends considered sources of employment in the Park County economy, recent changes in the rate of unemployment, the growth associated with the primary industries in Park County, and potential sources of new employment in the coming decade. Based upon the evaluation of future employment opportunities in Park County, an employment-based population forecast to the year 2020 was developed for Park County and its three municipalities. The assessment of future employment opportunities relied, in part, upon data obtained from a survey of primary employers in Park County that was prepared by Pedersen Planning Consultants and distributed by Forward Cody in early 2010. The type and location of existing housing is presented and evaluated in Chapter Three. General community housing characteristics such as the type and amount of housing, home ownership and home occupancy, and home vacancy are presented on a community-wide basis. These characteristics and related trends were determined through a review of available data from the 2000 Census and the December 2009 housing inventory. Chapter Three also provides an overview of recent market trends associated with the sale of improved and unimproved residential properties in Park County. This assessment is based upon a review of sales data for 2007, 2008 and 2009 that was furnished by the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Chapter Four presents a forecast of future housing demand for Park County and its three municipalities. Pedersen Planning Consultants developed and applied a statistical model to determine overall market demands for single family multi-family housing. The statistical model incorporated the forecast of the anticipated resident population during the next decade, as well as consideration of the potential absorption of future housing inventories. The model also included other assumptions regarding housing market preferences of the regional housing market that reflected the insights of local financial institutions and selected real estate brokers. Anticipated housing demands for those persons seeking assisted-living and long term care were calculated independent of market-driven housing. These housing demands are generated by persons outside of employed labor force. Representatives from the senior housing industry were consulted to help determine reasonable assumptions concerning the demand for assisted-living and nursing home care. Chapter Five provides a general overview of local lending policies that influence the financing and purchase of residential property. These factors are used to estimate monthly income levels that are required for potential home purchases. Subsequently, Chapter Five considers the affordability of homes available for purchase and rent. Average home purchase prices and home rental rates in 2009 are correlated with average salary/wage levels of employees working in various industries in the Park County economy. Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-3
Chapter Six includes a series of overall conclusions and strategies that are based upon the information and previous analyses presented in Chapters Two through Five. The strategies seek to address the efforts of the private sector and non-profit organizations to meet anticipated housing needs generated from anticipated community growth, identify potential development opportunities, and encourage reasonable investments in future residential development. 1.4
CONSULTATION
1.4.1 Park County Housing Committee Preparation of the Park County Housing Assessment was guided by James Klessens, Executive Director of Forward Cody. He organized a project advisory group called the Park County Housing Committee in order that the housing assessment would reflect the insights of various companies and agencies associated with the marketing, development and financing of housing in Park County. Pedersen Planning Consultants consulted with members of the Park County Housing Committee both individually and collectively to gain their insights concerning a range of housing issues. The Park County Housing Committee ultimately made a critical review of recommended housing strategies that led to a substantive refinement of housing strategies. Kim Borer, Wells Fargo Mortgage, Cody, Wyoming Jan Brenner, Prudential Brokerage West, Cody, Wyoming Heather Christensey, Envisioneering, LLC, Cody, Wyoming Theresa Donley, Broker, The Donley Team, Cody, Wyoming James Klessens, CEO, Forward Cody, Cody, Wyoming Kenny Lee, Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity, Cody, Wyoming Tanya Lowham, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Cody, Wyoming William Petersen, Building Inspector, City of Powell, Powell, Wyoming Sandy Shearer, Prudential Brokerage West, Cody, Wyoming Mark Westerhold, Pinnacle Bank, Cody, Wyoming Andy Whiteman, City Administrator, City of Cody, Cody, Wyoming Jim Yockey, Councilman, Town of Meeteetse 1.4.2 Other Sources of Information Representatives of other small businesses, public agencies and non-profit organizations were also contacted during the course of the Housing Assessment process. These representatives included the following:
Financial Institutions Martha Bunn, Mortgage Lender, First National Bank and Trust Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-4
Northwest College, Powell, Wyoming Dee Havig, Director, Director of Residence and Campus Life, Powell, Wyoming
Oil and Gas Industry Matthew Vezza, Wyoming Asset Team Manager, Wyoming Operations, Marathon Oil Company, Cody, Wyoming
Real Estate Brokers and Appraisers Karl Butler, Broker, Prudential Brokerage West, Cody, Wyoming Day Drury, Broker, American West Realty, Cody, Wyoming Theresa Donley, Broker, The Donley Team, Cody, Wyoming Jake Fulkerson, Certified General Appraiser, QM Appraisal, Cody, Wyoming Wendy Evarts, Associate Broker, Peak to Prairie Realty, Cody, Wyoming Ed Higbie, Associate Broker, Western Real Estate, Cody, Wyoming Shane Shoopman, Metzler and Moore Realty, Powell, Wyoming
Real Estate Developers and Residential Contractors Hamilton Bryan, Cody, Wyoming Fred Huppert, Huppert Construction, Inc., Billings, Montana Ed Higbie, Associate Broker, Western Real Estate, Cody, Wyoming Harold Musser, Musser Bros. Auctions and Real Estate, Cody, Wyoming Jerry Thiel, Jerry Thiel and Sons, Cody, Wyoming
Senior Housing and Care Industry Janet Eldredge, Administrator, Absaroka Senior Living Community, Cody Jenny Kaiser, Administrator, West Park Long Term Care Center, Cody Diana Preuninger, Manager, Beehive Home of Cody
Public Agencies City of Cody
Stephen Payne, P.E., Public Works Director Jennifer Rosencranse, Administrative Services Director
City of Powell
Sean Christensen, P.E., City Engineer
Park County
Linda Gillette, Planning Coordinator, Planning and Zoning Department
Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-5
CHAPTER TWO DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS 2.1
RECENT POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION
2.1.1 Resident Population in April 2000 In April 2000, the U.S. Census Bureau documented a population of 25,786 persons in Park County (Table 2-1). Just over forty-three percent of this population resided in the unincorporated area of Park County. The remaining population lived in one of four incorporated communities which included the City of Cody (34.3 percent), the City of Powell (almost 20.8 percent), the Town of Meeteetse (1.4 percent) and the west side of the Town of Frannie (0.1 percent).
TABLE 2-1 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000
Location
Cody Frannie (western part of town) Meeteetse Powell Unincorporated Area Park County
8,838 29 351 5,373 11,195 25,786
34.3 0.1 1.4 20.8 43.4 100.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
2.1.2 Recent Population Growth Changes in resident population, or population growth, reflect natural growth (births less deaths), as well as migration. Population migration includes the number of persons that come into a community to become new residents (in-migration), as well as those persons that leave a community to become residents of another community (outmigration). Available natural growth and driver license surrender data provides some insight to more growth in resident population since the April 2000 Census. Available data suggests that the resident population of Park County has increased to, at least, 29,019 persons in 2008 (Table 2-2). However, driver license surrender data does not reflect the in and out migration of persons under 16 years of age. Consequently, the December 2008 population represents a conservative estimate. Park County Housing Assessment
Population
Proportion (%) of Total Population
TABLE 2-2 POPULATION GROWTH PARK COUNTY, WYOMING MAY 2000 THROUGH DECEMBER 2008 a)
Year
2000 b) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total
Natural Growth
45 39 29 13 23 75 85 97 87 493
Net Migration
152 209 259 329 224 330 401 485 351 2,740
Population
25,786 25,983 26,231 26,519 26,861 27,108 27,513 27,999 28,581 29,019
Notes: a) Population from April 2000 Census; b) 2000 natural growth data includes births and deaths from May through December 2000 in order to correlate the data with U.S. Census estimates of April 2000. Sources: Wyoming Department of Health, Rural and Frontier Health Division, Vital Statistics Services, 2009; Western Economic Services, LLC, 2009; Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-1
The U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, published an estimate of population in Wyoming towns and counties in July 2009. These estimates suggest a population of 27,574 residents of Park County in July 2008. This estimate suggests that the population of Park County has increased only 6.9 percent since the April 2000 Census. Since natural growth and migration are the two elements that increase or decrease a community population, an estimated resident population for Park County that is less than the number of residents reflected by available natural growth and migration information is questionable. Natural growth and migration between May 2000 and December 2008 more realistically demonstrate that the resident population of Park County grew to, at least, 29,019 persons, or almost 13 percent since the April 2000 Census. 2.2
AGE CHARACTERISTICS
While available data from the April 2000 Census is from a decade ago, it suggests an age distribution that is likely comparable to that found in 2010 (Table 2-3). In April 2000, the Park County population generally included: •
Children and younger adults ranging between 0 and 19 years of age who comprised about 28 percent of the total resident population.
•
Younger adults between 20 and 24 years of age, which generally exhibit considerable mobility as they often migrate away from the community for higher education, new jobs and places to live, or travel, included almost six percent of the resident population.
TABLE 2-3 POPULATION BY SELECTED AGE GROUPS PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000
Age Group Under 1 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over
Total
Population 7,245 1,398 10,626 6,517
25,786
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
•
The primary working age population, which generally includes persons between 25 and 54 years of age, represented approximately 10,626 residents, or about 41 percent of total resident population.
•
Residents over 55 years and older, who are nearing or in their retirement years, accounted for about 25 percent of Park County’s resident population.
The age distribution of Park County suggests that Park County residents represent a somewhat older population compared to most other Wyoming communities its size. Park County includes a higher proportion of persons nearing or in their retirement years. But within Park County, the age distribution of its three primary communities varies considerably (Table 2-4). For example, in April 2000, a much greater proportion of younger adults between 20 and 24 years of age resided in Powell where Northwest College is located. The City of Cody, the Town of Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County contained a greater proportion of residents in the working age population. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-2
Age Group Under 1 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over
TABLE 2-4 COMMUNITY AGE DISTRIBUTION SELECTED AGE GROUPS WITHIN PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000 City of City of Town of Cody Powell Meeteetse (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 27.5 28.9 26.8 4.6 10.8 3.4 41.3 33.7 41.3 26.6 26.6 28.5
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Unincorporated Area (Percent) 28.3 3.6 44.7 23.4
100.0
Notes: The age distribution of residents in the Town of Frannie is not presented since only the western part of the community is located within Park County. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
The proportion of residents nearing or in their retirement years was somewhat greater in the Town of Meeteetse. 2.3
FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
2.3.1 Number of Households In April 2000, there were 10,312 households in Park County. 2.3.2 Family Households Family households include one householder, as well as one or more persons living in the same household who are related by birth, marriage or adoption. Family households represented almost 69 percent of all households in Park County in April 2000. But only three of ten family households contained children under 18 years of age. Single mothers, with no husband present, represented seven percent of all households. Almost seven of ten of these households included children under the age of 18 years (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). 2.3.3 Non-Family Households Non-family households represent one householder living alone, or a householder living in the same home with other persons who are not related by birth, marriage or adoption. In April 2000, non-family households represented thirty-one percent of all households in Park County. Almost 84 percent of all non-family households included a householder that was living alone. Almost four of ten of these households included persons that were 65 years of age or older. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-3
2.3.4 Average Household and Family Size The average household size was 2.42 in April 2000. Family households contained a slightly higher average size of 2.92 persons per household (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). 2.4
WORKFORCE TRENDS
2.4.1 Employed Workforce In August 2008, the workforce in Park County included 15,869 residents who were 16 years of age or older. Approximately 15,440 were employed within or outside of the Park County economy. One year later, the size of the workforce declined to an estimated 15,588 persons in August 2009. The number of employed residents fell to about 14,851 persons (Wyoming Department of Employment, Research and Planning, 2009). The reduction in the size of the workforce and the number of employed residents demonstrates the influence of the ongoing national economic recession. 2.4.2 Unemployment From 2003 through 2008, the rate of employment in Park County has generally exhibited higher seasonal rates of unemployment during the first and fourth quarter of each year and lower unemployment rates during the late second and third quarters (Figure 2-1). This typical cycle reflects seasonal increases in employment that associated with retail trade, accommodations and food services, and, to a lesser extent, agriculture. FIGURE 2-1 UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN PARK COUNTY JANUARY 2003 THROUGH DECEMBER 2008
Unemployment Rate %
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-4
2.4.3 Primary Sources of Employment Park County is a service based economy. sources of employment which include: • • • •
This is evidenced, in part, by the primary
Government; Retail trade; Accommodations and food services; and, Health care and social assistance services.
On a cumulative basis, these four industries accounted for almost 62 percent of total full and part-time employment in First Quarter 2009.
2.4.3.1
Government
Available covered employment information indicates that jobs in the government sector represented approximately 26 percent of the total average monthly employment in Park County in First Quarter 2009 (Table 2-5). Local government jobs at Park County, City of Cody, City of Powell, and the Town of Meeteetse accounted for about three-fourths of government employment. Other government employment represented jobs at various federal and state agencies (Wyoming Department of Employment, Research and Planning and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009). During the past five years, government sector jobs have generally increased from about 3,000 jobs in First Quarter 2005 to over 3,400 jobs in the Second Quarter and Third Quarter 2008. More recently, the number of government jobs has declined to roughly 3,200 jobs in Third Quarter 2008 and First Quarter 2009. More recent declines probably reflect the loss of seasonal workers during the spring and summer months.
2.4.3.2
Retail Trade
In the past five years, retail trade employment has demonstrated a rather consistent cycle of higher employment during the fall, spring and summer and lower employment during the winter season. Otherwise, the number of jobs associated with retail trade has increased only slightly. Retail trade employment levels peaked with an average of over 2,400 retail trade jobs during Third Quarter 2008. Lower employment levels during the first quarter were typically closer to 1,600 jobs. For example, retail trade provided 1,629 full and part-time jobs in First Quarter 2009, or roughly 13 percent of total average monthly employment (Table 2-5). Cyclical, seasonal swings in retail trade employment in Park County demonstrate the importance of visitor expenditures to the Park County economy and the influence of those expenditures upon retail trade employment.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-5
22
23
31 - 33
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
324 10
1,480 278
53
54
55
56
61
62
71
72
81
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste Services
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
686 184 2,172
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government 2,203
199
858
3,260
281
2,218
299
1,123
7
233
342
141
400
208
246
1,896
238
580
1,086
404
336
10,135
13,395
2Q2005 AME
1,981
203
1,041
3,225
283
2,615
371
1,123
259
19
335
148
405
207
253
2,321
237
560
1,081
421
381
11,107
14,332
3Q2005 AME
2,201
196
737
3,134
284
1,573
287
1,108
11
193
335
153
395
213
253
1,818
218
550
974
423
270
9,147
12,281
4Q2005 AME
2,231
3,568
204
3,073
285
1,378
223
1,097
9
174
6
375
143
390
214
242
1,630
198
573
987
436
234
8,672
11,745
1Q2006 AME
2,231
191
651
3,242
295
2,111
296
1,150
8
224
12
386
151
394
209
276
1,931
223
590
1,142
436
332
10,242
13,484
2Q2006 AME
2,054
206
1,030
3,291
293
2,667
362
1,180
259
18
391
161
408
237
289
2,262
208
596
1,113
446
375
11,352
14,643
3Q2006 AME
2,231
194
711
3,137
276
1,607
277
1,174
196
13
377
147
403
222
259
1,807
186
583
1,016
457
280
9,369
12,506
4Q2006 AME
2,247
194
640
3,081
273
1,369
235
1,206
192
11
400
149
377
212
224
1,635
198
563
966
453
240
8,792
11,873
1Q2007 AME
2,329
205
800
3,334
287
2,190
297
1,263
239
20
413
168
379
221
234
1,949
225
548
1,099
510
319
10,445
13,779
2Q2007 AME
2,343
2,156
Park County Housing Assessment
Draft - May 15, 2010
2,364
194
629
3,187
255
1,378
242
1,289
20
202
10
427
158
390
195
229
1,683
204
497
1,082
74
526
250
9,112
12,299
1Q2008 AME
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages developed through a cooperative program between Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010.
199
706
3,247
280
1,646
286
1,289
19
217
19
409
158
388
205
240
1,813
209
500
1,081
73
530
290
9,654
12,901
4Q2007 AME
209
1,018
3,383
305
2,657
374
1,300
15
284
24
412
169
385
216
242
2,265
225
514
1,150
70
526
373
11,506
14,888
3Q2007 AME
Notes: a) Industry codes established by the North American Industry Classification System. b) Preliminary data subject to revision. AME=Average Monthly Employment
3,042
Total Government
216
1,062
8
186
137
396
52
Finance & Insurance
178
238
51
48 - 49
Transportation & Warehousing
1,594
214
589
930
76
382
205
8,504
11,546
1Q2005 AME
Information
44 - 45
Retail Trade
42
21
Mining
Wholesale Trade
11
11 - 99
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
Private Sector
Total, Park County
NAICS Code a
TABLE 2-5 COVERED AVERAGE MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT IN PARK COUNTY BY NAICS INDUSTRIES First Quarter 2005 Through First Quarter 2009
2,380
202
857
3,438
267
2,247
309
1,297
19
250
10
441
163
386
204
242
2,044
235
515
1,135
69
543
312
10,688
14,127
2Q2008 AME
2,188
200
1,014
3,402
288
2,750
364
1,319
62
292
17
438
168
391
200
254
2,423
234
516
1,117
72
538
342
11,784
15,186
3Q2008 AME
2,402
193
684
3,280
280
1,683
268
1,294
78
239
17
422
164
363
199
248
1,858
234
504
1,043
73
544
304
9,814
13,093
4Q2008 AME
Page 2-6
2,404
191
618
3,213
263
1,382
216
1,320
80
219
11
429
144
366
193
232
1,629
219
493
950
73
531
233
8,985
12,198
1Q2009 AME
2.4.3.3
Accommodations and Food Services
Accommodations and food services provided an average of 1,382 jobs per month during First Quarter 2009. This represented approximately 11 percent of total full and part-time employment. Similar to retail trade, jobs associated with accommodations and food services parallel the cyclical seasonal pattern of higher employment during the second and third quarter and lower employment during the first and fourth quarter of each year. The growth of jobs in this industry has also remained generally similar with the exception of a slight increase in the number of jobs in 2008. Since 2005, third quarter employment has ranged from an average of 2,615 jobs in Second Quarter 2005 to a peak of 2,750 jobs in Second Quarter 2008. In contrast, first quarter employment levels have ranged from 1,480 jobs in First Quarter 2005 to 1,369 jobs in First Quarter 2007.
2.4.3.4
Health Care and Social Assistance Services
Health care and social assistance services represented almost 11 percent of total full and part-time employment during First Quarter 2009. In the past five years, the number of jobs in this industry has generally increased from an average of 1,062 jobs in First Quarter 2005 to 1,320 jobs in First Quarter 2009. This industry serves the needs of both residents and visitors. with health care and social assistance services is primarily services to full-time residents. Consequently, the increase in these services can be attributed to the expansion of the demand for health care and social assistance services. 2.5
But employment associated derived from its delivery of employment associated with resident population and its
INDUSTRY TRENDS
During the next decade, housing demands in Park County will largely be generated from future increases and declines in employment in the Park County economy. In this context, it is important to examine and anticipate economic trends that will influence the primary sources of employment in the local economy, as well as other industries that are expected to experience a significant rise or fall in employment. 2.5.1 Government It is expected that the public economic sector of Park County economy may experience a nominal decline in the size of the government workforce in 2010 and 2011. This potential decline may be realized from an anticipated decrease in Wyoming mineral and sales tax revenues. The ongoing decline in these revenues would impact both state agencies, as well as county and municipal governments, that are located in Park County.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-7
It is anticipated that gradual increases in mineral production, e.g., crude oil, would initiate a gradual increase in government jobs in 2011 or 2012. The eventual expansion of mineral production in various parts of Wyoming is expected to sustain a gradual increase in state and local government employment through the remainder of the coming decade. 2.5.2 Retail Trade Since 2005, retail sale expenditures in Park County have increased only about 1.5 percent (Table 2-6). Expenditures rose from roughly $226.5 million in 2005 to almost $248.7 million in 2006, but then fell to roughly $217.3 million in 2007. Subsequently, retail expenditures gradually increased to almost $230 million through the second quarter of 2009. These trends suggest that the national recession did not significantly impact retail expenditures in Park County economy through Second Quarter 2009. Within the past five years, a rise in retail expenditures has been experienced by retail establishments providing building materials and garden supplies, liquor stores, auto dealers and part stores, miscellaneous retail establishments, clothing and shoe stores, and home furniture and furnishing stores, electronic and appliance stores, and department stores. The most significant increase was associated with the sale of building materials and garden supplies (Table 2-6). TABLE 2-6 RETAIL SALES TRENDS PARK COUNTY, WYOMING FY 2005 THROUGH FY 2009 Rate of Change 2005 to 2009 (Percent)
Total Retail Sales (dollars) Merchandise Group
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Auto Dealers and Parts
9,745,376
11,647,280
12,268,972
12,815,987
12,294,244
26
Gasoline Stations Home Furniture and Furnishings Electronic and Appliance Stores Building Material & Garden Supplies
8,430,527
9,648,287
8,678,903
7,655,190
8,356,579
-1
5,675,786
5,584,991
5,576,315
6,290,842
6,343,977
12
10,444,184
8,946,118
7,046,648
10,479,010
10,955,476
5
29,732,587
34,625,672
38,848,843
42,631,253
46,015,482
55
32,619,374
34,311,866
18,227,341
15,010,289
17,642,988
-46
Liquor Stores
4,376,270
4,900,996
5,240,213
5,329,751
5,622,681
28
Clothing and Shoe Stores
7,593,539
8,405,678
8,856,723
9,212,875
8,740,316
15
Department Stores
7,426,372
7,779,018
8,299,750
8,208,995
7,552,342
2
65,149,236
69,286,959
51,027,495
54,764,971
50,121,789
-23
45,344,759 226,538,010
53,541,240 248,678,104
53,214,816 217,286,017
55,931,955 228,331,117
56,332,720 229,978,592
24 1.52
Grocery and Food Stores
General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail
Total Retail Sales
Notes: Available data is for the State of Wyoming’s fiscal year which extends from July 1 through June 30. For example, FY 2009 represents the period from July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2009.
Sources: Wyoming Dept of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2009; Wyoming Dept of Revenue, 2009; Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-8
In contrast, other types of retail establishments have observed a decline in retail sales. These retail outlets included food and grocery stores, general merchandise stores, and gasoline stations. The greatest decline was experienced by food and grocery stores (Table 2-6). The decline in sales by these types of retail establishments is surprising since these stores typically provide items that American consumers consider more essential for daily living. PPC also completed a retail leakage analysis of the Park County economy. This analysis reveals that Park County residents made a significant amount (34 percent) of retail expenditures outside of Park County in 2009. Extensive leakage occurred in all retail merchandise groups, particularly gasoline stations, auto dealers, auto parts stores, department stores, as well as electronic and appliance stores. Consequently, the private sector has ample opportunity to capture a significantly greater volume of retail sales. At the same time, the financial viability of many local retail enterprises would be greatly strengthened by Park County residents making more retail expenditures in Park County. TABLE 2-7 RETAIL LEAKAGE BY MERCHANDISE GROUP PARK COUNTY, WYOMING 2009
Merchandise Group Auto Dealers and Parts Gasoline Stations Home Furniture and Furnishings Electronic and Appliance Stores Building Material and Garden Supplies Grocery and Food Stores Liquor Stores Clothing and Shoe Stores Department Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Total Retail Sales
Potential Sales ($)
Actual Sales ($)
Surplus or Leakage ($)
Surplus or Leakage (Proportion of Potential Sales)
32,520,870 32,042,982 10,131,632 20,392,727
12,294,244 8,356,579 6,343,977 10,955,476
-20,226,626 -23,686,403 -3,787,655 -9,437,252
-62.2 -73.9 -37.4 -46.3
70,363,940 14,799,836 7,239,335 11,251,767 14,538,128 67,211,850 70,696,610
46,015,482 17,642,988 5,622,681 8,740,316 7,552,342 50,121,789 56,332,720
-24,348,459 2,843,153 -1,616,655 -2,511,451 -6,985,786 -17,090,061 -14,363,891
-34.6 19.2 -22.3 -22.3 -48.1 -25.4 -20.3
351,189,678
229,978,592
-121,211,086
-34.5
Sources: Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2010; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2010; State of Wyoming Department of Revenue, 2010; and, Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
In the coming decade, retail sales in Park County are expected to near 2009 levels. Anticipated declines in employment in portions of the government and private sectors will likely reduce some types of retail expenditures in 2010 and 2011, or until the local county economy rebounds from the impact of the ongoing national recession and lack of mineral production in Wyoming. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-9
But potential short-term losses in employment in Park County will be offset by job gains in other industries of the economy, e.g., education services. New workers coming into Park County will bring new consumers into the local economy who will generate a wide range of retail expenditures. With the eventual return of expanded mineral production, e.g., oil and natural gas, in Wyoming, employment in retail trade is expected to increase. The increase will be derived from some nominal population growth in Park County. Seasonal swings in retail trade employment will continue until the Park County economy becomes more diversified and more jobs are established in other industries. 2.5.3 Accommodation and Food Services Since 2005, the sale of accommodation and food services has steadily increased. Accommodation sales increased 36 percent between 2005 and 2009 while the sale of food and beverage services increased 21 percent (Table 2-8). TABLE 2-8 ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE SALES PARK COUNTY, WYOMING 2005 TO 2009 Merchandise Group
Lodging Services Eating and Drinking Places Total Sales
Percent Change
Total Accommodation and Food Service Sales (dollars) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
31,160,328 40,215,878 71,376,207
34,423,757 43,602,729 78,026,485
36,628,115 45,363,539 81,991,653
39,736,065 47,557,145 87,293,209
42,316,206 48,763,295 91,079,501
36 21 28
Sources: Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2009; State of Wyoming Department of Revenue, 2009; and, Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009.
The increased sale of lodging services suggests a combination of possible factors such as a growing volume of overnight visitor stays, improved hotel and motel occupancies, and an upward trend in hotel and motel rates. A parallel increase in food and beverage sales is not surprising as any increase in overnight visits typically generates the demand for food and beverages offered by eating and drinking places. During the next decade, no significant increase in accommodation and food service sales is anticipated. Overnight visitor stays and related visitor expenditures are expected to generally level off until the national economy improves, the regional economy begins to realize expanded private investment and increased employment, and greater consumer confidence is accompanied by an increased in business and recreational travel expenditures. 2.5.4 Heath Care and Social Assistance Services Health care and social assistance services provided by the private sector can be expected to remain viable during the coming decade. These services will be sought by residents of Park County to sustain individual and family health. Some residents will also seek various types of available social assistance services to intervene unexpected circumstances or long-term disabilities. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-10
2.5.5 Educational Services Educational services in the private sector of the Park County economy, which employed approximately 80 persons in First Quarter 2009, could experience a significant expansion in the coming decade. Forward Cody submitted a $3 million grant application to the Wyoming Business Council in December 2009 for the acquisition of a four acre property in Cody and the related construction of a new office building. Potential approval of the grant application will be considered by the State Land and Investment Board in April 2010 (Billings Gazette, 2009). The planned office building would initially be owned and managed by Forward Cody, and leased to Eleutian Technology, an online language instruction company, for its corporate headquarters. However, it is anticipated that Eleutian Technology would eventually purchase the building from Forward Cody (Klessens, 2009). If the grant is approved, Eleutian Technology intends to employ 20 persons upon completion of a new 10,000 square foot building on the four acre site in 2010. The company anticipates adding another 20 jobs to its workforce by sometime in 2013. The average annual wage for company employees will be about $50,000 (Billings Gazette, 2009). 2.6
INCOME
The examination of average monthly incomes associated with jobs in specific industries, which comprise the Park County economy, provides baseline information necessary to determine how much residents are able to pay for housing. In Chapter Five this information is eventually correlated with the cost of fee simple and rental housing, as well as the lending policies of local residential mortgage lenders, to assess the capability of Park County residents to purchase and rent available housing. 2.6.1 General In First Quarter 2009, employed persons working in the Park County economy received an average monthly wage or salary of $2,936 (Table 2-9). Government wage and salaries ($3,260 per month) in First Quarter 2009 paid somewhat higher than jobs in the private sector ($2,823 per month). But within the private sector, the range of average wage and salaries varied considerably.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-11
TABLE 2-9 AVERAGE MONTHLY INCOME PER JOB IN PARK COUNTY INDUSTRIES FIRST QUARTER 2009 Average Average Monthly Monthly b NAICS Wagesb Employment Code a (Persons) (Dollars) Total, Park County Private Sector Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
11 - 99 11 21 22 23 31 - 33 42 44 - 45 48 - 49 51 52 53 54 55 56 61 62 71 72 81
Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government
12,198
$2,936
8,985 233 531 73 950 493 219 1,629 232 193 366 144 429 11 219 80 1,320 216 1,382 263
$2,823 $2,226 $9,405 $4,404 $2,892 $2,849 $3,689 $1,983 $2,892 $2,516 $3,507 $1,689 $3,546 $7,188 $1,736 $961 $3,027 $2,204 $1,178 $1,892
3,213 618 191 2,404
$3,260 $4,183 $3,776 $2,983
Notes: a Industry codes established by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). b Preliminary data subject to revision. Sources: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages developed through a cooperative program between Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-12
2.6.2 Private Sector Within the private sector, higher monthly incomes are obtained by those residents who work in the mining industry. In Park County, the mining industry primarily includes persons working in regional oil and gas exploration and production. In First Quarter 2009, mining industry workers in Park County earned an average monthly income of approximately $9,405. Persons involved in the management of companies and enterprises in Park County received an average salary of $7,188 per month while persons working in local utilities earned $4,404 per month. Employees working in these industries, as well as the mining industry, received incomes that exceeded the average wage and salaries for all government workers. Employees of health care and social services in Park County earned average wages and salaries of $3,027 per month. This average salary was somewhat less than the monthly earnings of those working in the government sector. In contrast, considerably lower incomes in the private sector were earned by those working in retail trade ($1,983 per month), accommodations and food services ($1,178 per month). In First Quarter 2009, the lowest monthly earnings in the private sector were received by those employed by private educational services ($961 per month). At the same time, it is likely that many of the jobs in retail trade, accommodations, and food services represent part-time job earnings. 2.6.3 Public Sector The average monthly wage or salary for government workers in First Quarter 2009 ranged between $2,983 for municipal and Park County workers, $3,776 per month for employees of the State of Wyoming, to $4,183 per month for federal employees of the U.S. Government. Local government workers represented 75 percent of all government employment during First Quarter 2009. 2.7
FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH
2.7.1 Alternate Approaches Used to Calculate Future Growth The development of a forecast for future population growth is necessary to help estimate the future demand for housing in Park County. A number of approaches are commonly used to forecast future population growth. Three of the more common approaches include: • • •
Time series analysis; Cohort survival method; and, Employment-based analyses.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-13
2.7.1.1
Time Series Analysis
Time series analysis relies upon past population growth trends and applies past trends to forecast future growth. Forecasts typically assume that factors influencing future growth, e.g., fertility, mortality and migration, will not change significantly. This is a relatively simple approach to forecasting future community populations. The time series approach, which is used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, is not a prudent methodology since Park County is periodically influenced by significant swings in regional mineral development, e.g., crude oil. This factor, in itself, can lead to unrealistic assumptions concerning future in and out-migration.
2.7.1.2
Cohort Survival Method
Forecasts made using the cohort survival method rely upon fertility and mortality rates, as well as net migration patterns, for various age and sex cohorts. Regional projections of mortality and fertility are applied to each age and sex cohort within a community to produce forecasts of change for each cohort. When combined, forecasts can be developed for a community, county, or larger regional area. While this approach considers basic factors that influence future population growth, this method is more successfully applied to communities where in and out-migration are more stable and have a negligible influence upon the size and composition of a community population (Isard, 1960). During the coming decade, oil and natural gas reserves in America’s Rocky Mountain region will likely be further explored and produced in a significant way to help meet increased energy demands in the United States. Such development may include the development of reserves in both Park County and neighboring Big Horn County. If realized, regional oil and gas development would generate highly variable changes in population migration. Consequently, this method was not considered appropriate for the preparation of a forecast for Park County.
2.7.1.3
Employment-Based Analysis
Employment-based analysis considers potential changes in community or regional employment, natural growth rates, and migration. Employment-based forecasts are typically do not extend beyond 10 years because future employment trends are often highly variable and influenced by numerous factors such as regional business climate, commercial lending rates, as well as the demand for products and services. Drivers’ license exchange/surrender data from the Wyoming Department of Transportation facilitates the estimation of in and out migration. However, available data does include information for persons under 16 years of age. Despite inherent limitations, this approach was considered to be a more reasonable approach and selected for calculation of a 10-year population forecast for Park County. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-14
2.7.2 Population Forecast
2.7.2.1
How Future Growth Was Calculated
Pedersen Planning Consultants prepared an employment-based forecast through its development of a statistical model and the related incorporation of various statistical inputs. These inputs were based upon various assumptions concerning the future rate of natural growth and migration, as well as future employment in all industries in the Park County economy. Industry trends (see Section 2.5), as well as data obtained from an employer survey, established the basis for assumptions concerning future employment. This information enabled Pedersen Planning Consultants to estimate the potential number of new or lost jobs in each industry for each year in the coming decade. Potential new jobs in various industries and their potential dependents represented anticipated in-migrants to Park County. Conversely, potential out-migrants represented jobs that are expected to be lost in one or more industries. Potential out-migration was estimated using a ratio derived from driver license exchange/surrender data for Park County between 2000 and 2008.
2.7.2.2
Anticipated Population Growth
During the next decade, the resident population of Park County is expected to experience some modest growth. By the year 2020, the Park County population is expected to increase to approximately 33,798 persons (Table 2-10). It is anticipated that Park County’s population will increase about 14 percent between 2010 and 2020. The annual rate of growth is expected to range from about 0.9 percent and 1.6 percent per year. TABLE 2-10 ANTICIPATED POPULATION GROWTH PARK COUNTY, WYOMING 2010-2020 Year End
Population
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
29,281 29,539 29,863 30,242 30,489 30,894 31,380 31,962 32,400 32,815 33,285 33,798
Births
Deaths
262 252 266 241 275 311 335 332 130 272 294
202 213 237 228 252 236 250 235 92 217 251
In Migration
Out Migration
402 649 777 958 757 1055 1229 1,404 1077 1,186 1,341
204 364 427 724 375 644 732 1063 700 771 871
Annual Population Growth
258 324 379 247 405 486 582 438 415 470 513
Annual Population Growth Rate
0.88% 1.10% 1.27% 0.82% 1.33% 1.57% 1.85% 1.37% 1.28% 1.43% 1.54%
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-15
Information gained from the Park County employer survey conducted in early 2010 suggests that most industries will add few jobs to the Park County between 2010 and 2012. Greater job creation and related population growth is anticipated with the realization of an improved national and regional business climate. The initial five years of the coming decade will primarily be influenced educational service workers entering Park County’s private sector. These represent employees of Eleutian Technology which has pledged to headquarters to the City of Cody if the company can lease a new office Forward Cody.
by 40 new workers will relocate its facility from
It is anticipated that some growth in the Park County’s mining industry employment will take place sometime beginning in 2010. Mining industry employment in Park County is primarily associated with crude oil exploration and production in nearby oil fields in the Big Horn Basin and other areas such as Spring Creek Field, Pitchfork, Byron-Garland and Hot Springs Grassfields (Vezza, 2010). It is also important to note that Marathon Oil recently established a Wyoming Asset Team that now manages corporate assets in the Big Horn Basin, the Power River Basin, Wind River Basin, and Greater Green River Basin. The hub of management activities for this regional area will be centered in Cody, Wyoming. Marathon’s management activities will continue to be supported by geotechnical and petroleum engineering personnel in Marathon’s corporate office (Vezza, 2010). The United States Government is expected to eventually establish policies that will encourage greater oil and natural gas production in the Rocky Mountain Region, particularly the development of active leases on federal land. While Park County will likely not be a primary area of exploration and production, the implementation of such a federal policy will likely generate some expansion of oil exploration and production in areas such as the Oregon Basin and gradually stimulate a continued expansion of the mining industry workforce in Park County. Between 2010 and 2020, it was assumed that the mining industry would add roughly 295 new jobs that would become based in Park County. The potential expansion of mining industry activity and employment would likely attract some investment in new residential construction, professional and technical services, as well as transportation services, supporting increased natural gas development. Such services would likely establish in the vicinity of Cody, Powell and, possibly, Meeteetse between 2014 and 2020. The potential surge in employment from an expansion of educational services, and the eventual growth of the mining industry workforce, would likely prompt greater investments and expenditures in retail trade, as well as accommodations and food services, sometime after 2014. A potential rise in resident and visitor expenditures for retail trade, as well as accommodations and food services, would also generate a rise in the number of persons employed in both industries beginning around 2015. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-16
Support services such as finance and insurance, real estate and leasing and other services will likely see some increase with the gradual emergence of an improved business climate after 2012. Similarly, new jobs in health care and social will likely take place. Any expansion of oil and natural gas exploration and production in northwest and north central Wyoming would likely increase government employment in Park County. The workforce of federal agencies such as the U.S. Bureau of Land Management would expand to support increased monitoring of natural resources, as well as natural gas exploration sites and production areas.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-17
CHAPTER THREE COMMUNITY HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS 3.1
INTRODUCTION
The development of meaningful housing improvement strategies is dependent, in part, upon an understanding of selected community housing characteristics and costs. In the absence of this information, faulty assumptions can be made about available housing, future housing demands, the affordability of available housing, and other housing issues. Faulty assumptions can lead to the preparation of strategies that fail to address primary housing issues and potential housing development opportunities. Chapter Three provides an overview of housing characteristics in Park County. Available data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census identifies past housing characteristics in April 2000. In addition, the U.S Bureau of Census, Population Division, has prepared more recent housing estimates for Park County. Pedersen Planning Consultants completed a more recent housing inventory of the City of Cody, City of Powell and Town of Meeteetse in December 2009 which enabled the determination of more recent changes in the type, number and location of housing units in these communities during the past decade. Housing units in the unincorporated area of Park County were excluded from the inventory due to project budget limitations. Forward Cody retained the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors to compile sales data for improved and unimproved residential properties in 2007, 2008, and 2009 to facilitate the analysis of housing market in Park County. This information was derived from more specific data maintained within the organization’s multiple listing service. Sales data provided considerable insights concerning recent demands for housing, as well as the cost for various types of residential properties. In Chapter Five, housing cost data was also correlated with wage and salary data associated with each industry in Park County to help evaluate the affordability of housing for local and prospective residents. 3.2
SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF AVAILABLE HOUSING
TABLE 3-1 TYPE OF HOUSING PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000
Type of Housing Single-family Attached1 Single-family Detached2 Townhome/Duplex Apts (3-9 Units) Apts (10 + Units ) Mobile Home Boat/RV Total
Number of Housing Units 376 8,679 279 791 236 1,497 11 11,869
Notes: 1. An attached single-family home is a home where the garage is physically attached to the housing unit. 2. A detached single-family home is a home where the garage is physically detached from the housing unit, but located on the same residential lot. Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, 2000.
The 2000 Census, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, documented 11,869 housing units in Park County in April, 2000 (Table 3-1). The Bureau of the Census, Population Division, estimated that there were 13,285 housing units in July 2008 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, 2009). This gain represented an 11.9 percent increase in the number of housing units since April 2000. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-1
The correlation of the July 2008 housing estimate with the data from the December 2009 housing inventory indicates that roughly 54 percent of all housing in Park County is located within the municipal boundaries of the City of Cody, City of Powell and the Town of Meeteetse. But, all remaining housing is located within the unincorporated area of Park County. 3.2.1 City of Cody In December 2009, there were approximately 4,571 housing units (Table 3-2) in the City of Cody (Figure 3-1). This compares to 4,140 housing units documented by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in April 2000. The size of Cody’s housing inventory expanded just over 10 percent during the past decade and proportionally grew more than any other Park County community. TABLE 3-2 TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING IN CODY, POWELL, AND MEETEETSE DECEMBER 2009 Ward 1
Cody Ward Ward 2 3
Total
Ward 1
Powell Ward Ward 2 3
Units
Structure Type
Meeteetse Total
Units
Total Inventory
Units
Single-family Attached1 Single-family Detached2
166
64
116
346
6
0
18
24
0
370
969
884
850
2,703
437
547
528
1512
163
4378
Townhome/Duplex
14
42
65
121
36
26
28
90
6
217
Apts (3-9 Units)
97
448
532
1,077
131
7
41
179
0
1256
Apts (10 + Units )
0
100
12
112
428
0
12
440
0
552
Mobile Home
35
11
157
203
0
0
161
161
9
373
Boat/RV
6
1
2
9
0
0
0
0
13
22
2,406
191
7,168
4,571
Notes: 1. An attached single-family home is a housing unit where the garage is physically attached to the housing unit. 2. A detached single-family home where the garage is physically detached from the housing unit, but located on the same residential lot.
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009.
3.2.1.1
Single-Family Homes
A detached or attached single-family home is the predominant type of housing found in the City of Cody. The U.S. Census considers an attached single-family home as a singlefamily home where the garage is attached to the residential structure. Conversely, an improved residential property with a single-family home and detached garage is considered a detached single-family home. In December 2009, detached and attached single-family homes accounted for almost 67 percent of all housing in the community. These homes are situated throughout the community, but most detached single-family homes are located in Ward 1 which comprises the west side of town (Figure 3-2). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-2
©
Legend
WARD 1 2 3 Cody Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Wards 1-3 City of Cody
Figure 3-1
© 120 U V
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 20
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV
WARD 1 2 US Highway State Highway
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 1 City of Cody December 2009 Figure 3-2
3.2.1.2
Townhomes/Duplexes
A duplex is another type of single-family residential unit that shares a common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Townhomes in Cody are residential structures where three to six single-family homes share one common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Duplexes and townhomes are scattered throughout the City of Cody. These residential buildings are more common in Central Estates 6-unit Townhomes the central (Ward 2) and eastern (Ward 3) parts of the community (Figure 3-3 and Figure 3-4).
3.2.1.3
Residential Apartments
There were approximately 1,189 residential apartment units in the City of Cody in December 2009. Residential apartment units represented 26 percent of total housing inventory. Most of the residential apartments were located in Wards 2 and 3. The majority of the residential apartment units were located in smaller residential apartment buildings that contained up to nine residential apartments.
3.2.1.4
Residential Apartments in Cody
Mobile Homes
A manufactured home is a transportable structure in one or more sections. In the traveling mode, a manufactured home is 8 or more feet wide and 40 feet or more in length. When erected on-site, a manufactured home contains 320 or more square feet. The structure is built on a permanent chassis and designed to be used as a dwelling with or without a permanent foundation. However, in order to become eligible for mortgage insurance offered by the U.S. Federal Housing Administration, all manufactured home must comply with the following criteria: • • •
Contains a floor area of not less than 400 square feet; the home is constructed after June 15, 1976, in conformance with federal manufactured home construction and safety standards which are evidenced by an affixed certification label; designed to be used as a dwelling with a permanent foundation built to criteria of the U.S. Federal Housing Administration;
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-5
© 120 U V
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 20
£ ¤ 16
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE
£ ¤ 20
Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV
WARD 1 2 3 US Highway State Highway Lakes
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 2 City of Cody December 2009 Figure 3.3
© £ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 20
£ ¤ 14
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV
WARD 2 3 US Highway State Highway Lake
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 3 City of Cody December 2009 Figure 3-4
• • •
built and remains on a permanent chassis; classified and subject to taxation as real estate; the finished grade elevation under the manufactured home or, if a basement is used, the lowest finished exterior grade adjacent to the perimeter enclosure, shall be at, or above, the 100-year return frequency flood elevation; and, any mortgage must cover the manufactured home and building site and shall have a loan term of not more than 30 years (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010).
For the purposes of this study, mobile homes were considered to be pre-fabricated residential structures that were situated on temporary foundations. During the December 2009 inventory, a pre-fabricated home which contained a visible hitch was documented as a mobile home. Since exterior skirting typically conceals building foundations and the hitch originally used to transport the building, the estimated number of mobile homes may be conservative. Mobile homes represented just over four percent of the total housing inventory in December 2009. A greater proportion of mobile homes were documented on the east side of the community (Ward 3), particularly north of U.S. Highway 14.
3.2.1.5
Recreational Vehicles
In December 2009, nine recreational vehicles were observed to be used for long-term residential purposes. Six of the nine recreational vehicles were discovered on the west side of Cody in Ward 1. 3.2.2
City of Powell
Approximately 2,406 housing units (Table 3-2) were documented in the City of Powell in December 2009 (Figure 3-5). This compares to 2,243 housing units reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in April 2000. Consequently, the housing inventory of Powell grew slightly more than seven percent during the past decade.
3.2.2.1
Single-Family Homes
A detached or attached single-family home is the predominant type of housing found in the City of Powell. The U.S. Census considers an attached single-family home as a single-family home where the garage is attached to the residential structure. Conversely, an improved residential property with a single-family home and detached garage is considered a detached single-family home.
Single-family Home in West Powell
In December 2009, detached and attached single-family homes accounted for almost 64 percent of all housing in the community. These homes are primarily situated south and west of Northwest College of Wyoming, as well as southwest of U.S. Highway 14 (Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-8
©
295 V U
£ ¤ 14
Legend Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 US Highway State Highway Powel Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Wards 1-3 City of Powell
Figure 3-5
©
£ ¤ 14
295 V U
Legend STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 US Highway State Highway Powel Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Wards 1 and 3 City of Powell December 2009 Figure 3-6
©
Legend
£ ¤ 14
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 US Highway State Highway Powel Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 2 City of Powell December 2009 Figure 3-7
3.2.2.2
Townhomes/Duplexes
A duplex is another type of single-family residential unit that shares a common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Townhomes in the City of Powell are residential structures where three to six single-family homes share one common wall with an adjoining single-family home.
Duplex in North Powell
Duplexes and townhomes, which are scattered throughout each of the three wards in Powell, represented less than four percent of the total housing inventory in December 2009. While these units comprise only a small segment of the total housing inventory, the number of duplexes and townhomes rose 23 percent during the past decade. In contrast, detached and attached single-family homes increased only 12 percent. This trend suggests that residential developers are increasingly incorporating this type of housing in newer residential subdivisions.
3.2.2.3
Residential Apartments
There were 619 residential apartment units in the City of Powell in December 2009. Residential apartment units represented 26 percent of total housing inventory. Most of the residential apartments were located in Ward 1. Many of the apartments were located on the Northwest College of Wyoming campus in Apartment Building on Sunlight Drive in Powell college dormitories. Secondarily, some residential apartment buildings are situated in Ward 3 near to the college campus. No residential apartments were located in Ward 2.
3.2.2.4
Mobile Homes
For the purposes of this study, mobile homes are considered pre-fabricated residential structures that are situated on temporary foundations. During the December 2009 inventory, a pre-fabricated home which contained a visible hitch was documented as a mobile home. Since exterior skirting typically conceals the building foundations and hitch, the estimated number of mobile homes may be conservative. Mobile homes comprised just under seven percent of Powell’s total housing inventory in December 2009. Mobile homes were found in designated mobile home parks that were located only in Ward 3.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-12
3.2.2.5
Recreational Vehicles
No recreational vehicles in the City of Powell were observed to be used for long-term residential purposes in December 2009. 3.2.3 Town of Meeteetse In December 2009, Pedersen Planning Consultants documented 191 housing units (Table 3-2) in the Town of Meeteetse (Figure 3-8). This compares to 192 housing units reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in April 2000. Consequently, the housing inventory of Meeteetse apparently lost one residential structure during the past decade.
3.2.3.1
Single-Family Homes
A detached or attached single-family home is the predominant type of housing found in the Town of Meeteetse. The U.S. Census considers an attached single-family home as a single-family home where the garage is attached to the residential structure. Conversely, an improved residential property with a single-family home and detached garage is considered a detached single-family home. In December 2009, 163 detached single-family homes accounted for 85 percent of all housing in the community. These homes are located throughout all residential areas in the community.
3.2.3.2
Townhomes/Duplexes
A duplex is another type of single-family residential unit that shares a common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Townhomes are residential structures where three to six single-family homes share one common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Six duplex units were observed during the December 2009 inventory. These units were located near the east end of Franklin Street. No townhome units were observed in the community.
3.2.3.3
Residential Apartments
No residential apartments were observed in the community in December 2009.
3.2.3.4
Mobile Homes
For the purposes of this study, mobile homes are considered pre-fabricated residential structures that are situated on temporary foundations. During the December 2009 inventory, a pre-fabricated home which contained a visible hitch was documented as a mobile home. Since exterior skirting typically conceals the building foundations and hitch, the estimated number of mobile homes may be conservative. Nine mobile homes comprised just under five percent of Meeteetse’s total housing inventory in December 2009. Four of these mobile homes were situated in a small mobile home park situated on the north side of Nevada Street.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-13
©
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV Vacant Residential US Highway State Highway River Meeteetse Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Town of Meeteetse December 2009
Figure 3-8
3.2.3.5
Recreational Vehicles
Thirteen recreational vehicles in the Town of Meeteetse were observed to be used for long-term residential purposes in December 2009. The recreational vehicles were located southeast of the Highland Avenue/State Highway 120 intersection, as well as near the east end of Fulton Street and Franklin Street. 3.3
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
3.3.1 Types of Households In April 2000, almost 69 percent of all households in Park County were family households. The number of married couples represented 86 percent of these households. Roughly four of 10 ten of all family households included children under 18 years of age. Non-family households comprised about 31 percent of all households in Park County. Householders living alone resided in eighty-four percent of these households. About one in three of the non-family householders were individuals who were 65 or more years of age. It is likely that family and household characteristics evident in April 2000 have not changed significantly in 2010. One exception may be non-family household characteristics which, on a national basis, have changed through the gradual emergence of new lifestyle preferences. 3.3.2 Household Size The average Park County household contained 2.42 persons in April 2000. The average family size included 2.92 persons (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000). 3.3.3 Home Occupancy In April 2000, the U.S. Census reported that about 71 percent of all occupied housing units in Park County were occupied by owners of their housing unit. The remaining 29 percent were occupied by persons leasing rental housing. The eventual availability of comparable data from the 2010 Census will enable the determination of what proportion of housing units are occupied by owners and renters. Pedersen Planning Consultants examined selected water and wastewater billing data from the City of Cody to ascertain if home occupancy characteristics in 2009 were comparable to home occupancy characteristics in 2000. A correlation of in situ and billing address information furnished by the City of Cody suggests that roughly 92 percent of all housing units the City of Cody were owner occupied in 2009. A significant reduction in the proportion of renter-occupied units is not likely. Many older single-family homes have, over the years, been partitioned into two dwelling units. For example, a home originally built at 409 Smith Street may have been renovated and now has two addresses, 409A and 409B Smith Street. The owner may be receiving one water and wastewater bill even though property contains two residential units. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-15
3.4
COST AND AVAILABILITY OF HOUSING
3.4.1 Introduction As stated earlier, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors compiled sales data for improved and unimproved residential properties located in Park County and its three primary communities. The data included sales for calendar years 2007, 2008, and 2009. Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors website to identify the type, location and listing prices for housing units available for purchase in April 2010. Insights were also gained from Jake Fulkerson of QM Appraisal in Cody, Wyoming who previously examined sales data for the 2007-2009 period. His analyses included an examination of housing market prices, as well as an estimated the length of time available housing inventory might be absorbed by the housing market. On a cumulative basis, Pedersen Planning Consultants used information gained from these sources, as well as its own analyses, to identify and evaluate recent trends associated with the cost and availability of housing. It is important to note that residential properties sold on the Northwest Board of Realtors MLS do not represent all residential sales that occurred between 2007 and 2009. For example, there may have been as many as 100 additional residential properties in Park County that were sold by property owners in 2009 (Lowham, 2010). 3.4.2 Cody
3.4.2.1
Residential Property Trends within the City of Cody
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Similar to other Wyoming communities, the purchasers of residential property between 2007 and 2009 demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. Between 2007 and 2009, 432 improved residential properties and 49 unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 3-3). Consequently, improved residential properties represented 90 percent of the market over the three year period. Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales within the municipal boundary of the City of Cody fell from 157 sales in 2007 to 127 sales in 2009. This represented a decline of about 19 percent. This decline is not surprising in view of the downturns in the national and regional economies. The size of homes sold during the three-year changed only modestly. The average home sold contained just over 2,000 square feet in 2007 and 2008. The size of the average home sold in Cody declined to just below 2,000 square feet in 2009. The price of the average home increased from roughly $197,000 to over $202,000 in 2008. However, average home prices subsequently declined to about $187,000 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices decreased only about five percent during the 20072009 period. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-16
TABLE 3-3 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS CODY, WYOMING 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
157 148 127
Average Sale Price
$ 196,962 $ 202,152 $ 186,865
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Number of Sales
2,043 2,037 1,944
22 19 8
Average Sale Price
$ 75,170 $ 65,104 $ 52,509
Average Lot Size (sq. ft.)
17,512 10,466 21,082
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010
When average sale prices are correlated with the average floor space, it becomes apparent that housing sales reflected a $96 to $99 per square foot range between 2007 and 2009. Higher sales per square foot occurring only during 2008. Viewed on a square foot basis, housing prices essentially remained the same except for a brief three percent rise in 2008. Despite some softening in overall demand for improved residential properties and buildable residential lots, it should be encouraging to property owners that sale prices have not slid. This contrasts with many other American communities which have experienced sale price reductions as a result of the ongoing economic recession. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 102 improved residential property listings within the City of Cody. The average list or asking price for these properties was $248,036. Eighty-six percent of the properties were priced under $300,000 (Table 3-4). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, recently correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the total number of improved residential property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent housing demand. This correlation suggested that available housing inventory in January 2010 could theoretically meet housing demands or through October 2010 (Fulkerson, 2010).
Park County Housing Assessment
TABLE 3-4 AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS CODY,WYOMING APRIL 2010 Selling Price
Number of Units Available
$50,000 - $100,000 2 $100,000 - $110,000 2 $110,000 - $120,000 3 $120,000 - $130,000 13 $130,000 - $140,000 6 $140,000 - $150,000 5 $150,000 - $160,000 3 $160,000 - $170,000 9 $170,000 - $180,000 5 $180,000 - $190,000 7 $190,000 - $200,000 2 $200,000 - $210,000 3 $210,000 - $220,000 4 $220,000 - $230,000 1 $230,000 - $240,000 7 $240,000 - $250,000 6 $250,000 - $260,000 4 $260,000 - $270,000 4 $270,000 - $280,000 7 $280,000 - $290,000 1 $290,000 - $300,000 3 $300,000 - $500,000 13 Over $500,000 3 Total 113 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-17
Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices for 113 properties ranged between $50,000 to over $500,000. But listing prices for 74 percent of all available properties within the City of Cody fell in the $120,000-$280,000 range.
3.4.2.2
Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Cody
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 In the unincorporated area in the vicinity of Cody, 268 residential properties listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS were sold between 2007 and 2009. Almost 67 percent of these were improved residential properties. The remaining 33 percent were unimproved residential lots where new homes could be built (Table 3-5). TABLE 3-5 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS VICINITY OF CODY 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Year
Number of Sales
Average Sale Price
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
80 56 43
$312,361 $381,993 $340,719
2,266 2,434 2,664
2007 2008 2009
46 28 15
Average Sale Price
$89,102 $118,283 $99,620
Average Lot Size (acres)
7 15 7
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
While total sales within the City of Cody were greater, more unimproved lot sales occurred in the unincorporated area near the City of Cody. A greater proportion of all buyers purchasing unimproved lots in the unincorporated area likely envisioned purchasing and developing a new residential lot. Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales in the unincorporated area, in the vicinity of the City of Cody, steadily declined from 80 sales in 2007 to 43 sales in 2009. This 46 percent decline differed from sales within the municipal boundary of Cody which fell only 19 percent during the three-year period. But this decline was, again, not surprising in view of the downturns in the national and regional economies. The size of homes sold between 2007 and 2009 increased. The average home sold contained about 2,266 square feet in 2007, 2,434 square feet in 2008, and 2,664 square feet in 2009. The price of the average home in the unincorporated area, in the vicinity of Cody, rose from about $312,361 in 2007 to almost $382,000 in 2008. However, average home prices subsequently fell to approximately $340,700 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices rose about nine percent over the three year period. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-18
But, since the size of sold homes increased somewhat between 2007 and 2009, it is useful to correlate average sale prices with average floor space in order to calculate and compare the price per square foot. The price per square foot of residential homes in the unincorporated area near Cody was $138 in 2007, rose to $157 per square foot in 2008, but then declined to $128 per square foot in 2009. Viewed on this basis, housing prices declined about seven percent between 2007 and 2009. The overall demand for both improved residential properties and buildable residential lots in the unincorporated area fell between 2007 and 2009. But, this decline was not accompanied by a significant decrease in property values. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 77 improved residential property listings in the vicinity of Cody. The average list or asking price for these properties was $571,636 and two-thirds of the available listings in the vicinity of Cody represented properties listed for under $500,000 (Fulkerson, 2010). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the TABLE 3-6 total number of improved residential AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS VICINITY OF CODY property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent APRIL 2010 housing demand. This correlation Number of Units suggested that available housing inventory Selling Price Available in January 2010 could theoretically meet $100,000 - $140,000 1 housing demands or through October $140,000 - $150,000 0 2011 (Fulkerson, 2010). $150,000 - $160,000 0 Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices ranged between $100,000 and $3.0 million. But listing prices for twothirds of all available properties in the vicinity of Cody fell in the $300,000-$1.0 million range (Table 3-6).
Park County Housing Assessment
$160,000 - $170,000 0 $170,000 - $180,000 2 $180,000 - $190,000 2 $190,000 - $200,000 2 $200,000 - $210,000 1 $210,000 - $220,000 0 $220,000 - $230,000 1 $230,000 - $240,000 1 $240,000 - $250,000 1 $250,000 - $260,000 2 $260,000 - $270,000 2 $270,000 - $280,000 2 $280,000 - $290,000 1 $290,000 - $300,000 7 $300,000 - $550,000 40 $550,000 – $750,000 9 $750,000 – $1,000,000 10 $1,000,000 – $1,250,000 1 $1.250,000 – $1,500,000 2 $1,500,000 – $3,000,000 2 Total 89 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors ®, 2010. Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-19
3.4.3 Powell
3.4.3.1
Residential Property Trends in the City of Powell
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Between 2007 and 2009, the purchasers of residential property in the City of Powell demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. During this period, 269 improved residential properties and 17 unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 3-7). Consequently, improved residential properties represented 94 percent of the market over the three year period. TABLE 3-7 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS POWELL, WYOMING 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES
Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
101 94 74
Average Sale Price
$156,985 $155,456 $146,562
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Number of Sales
2,089 1,647 1,584
11 4 2
Average Sale Price
$42,900 $37,000 $30,000
Average Lot Size (sq. ft.)
16,393 13,872 6,001
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors ®, 2010.
Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales within the City of Powell steadily declined from 101 sales in 2007 to 74 sales in 2009. This represented a decline of almost 27 percent. Similar to Cody, this decline likely reflected downturns in both the national and regional economies. The size of homes sold during the three-year changed considerably. The average home sold contained just over 2,089 square feet in 2007, declined to 1,647 square feet in 2008, and fell to 1,584 square feet in 2009. The 24 percent decline in average floor space may signal a gradual trend toward the construction and availability of smaller homes in the market. The price of the average home slid from almost $157,000 in 2007 to roughly $146,500 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices fell almost seven percent during the 2007-2009 period. The correlation of average sale prices with the average floor space of improved residential properties probably provides a more meaningful insight to the cost of property in Powell. In 2007, the cost per square foot for improved residential properties was approximately $75 per square foot. Subsequently, the cost per square foot rose to about $94 in 2008 and $93 in 2009. So, while average sales prices declined almost seven percent, the cost per square foot rose of improved residential properties increased about 25 percent. The significant rise in the cost per square foot probably reflects the increased cost of construction and sale of more new homes in the Powell market which previously included somewhat larger homes. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-20
Overall, recent reductions in the sale of residential property and average sales prices clearly demonstrate a buyers market. At the same time, the rising cost per square foot for housing may be discouraging to some consumers. While new residential construction typically often generates this trend, the overall market is improved as available inventory becomes more diversified and attractive to potential home buyers and companies seeking to establish or relocate a new business. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 77 improved residential property listings in the City of Powell. The average list or asking price for these properties was $189,597; 92 percent of the available listings in the City of Powell represented properties listed for under $300,000 (Fulkerson, 2010). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the total number of improved residential property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent housing demand. TABLE 3-8 This correlation suggested that available AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS housing inventory in January 2010 could CITY OF POWELL, WYOMING APRIL 2010 theoretically meet housing demands through Number of Units August 2010 (Fulkerson, 2010). Selling Price
Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices ranged between $50,000 and $500,000. But listing prices for almost 57 percent of all available properties in the City of Powell fell in the $50,000-$170,000 range (Table 3-8).
3.4.3.2 Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Powell Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Between 2007 and 2009, the purchasers of residential property in the vicinity of Powell demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. During this period, 56 Park County Housing Assessment
Available
$50,000 - $100,000 $100,000 - $110,000 $110,000 - $120,000 $120,000 - $130,000 $130,000 - $140,000 $140,000 - $150,000 $150,000 - $160,000 $160,000 - $170,000 $170,000 - $180,000 $180,000 - $190,000 $190,000 - $200,000 $200,000 - $210,000 $210,000 - $220,000 $220,000 - $230,000 $230,000 - $240,000 $240,000 - $250,000 $250,000 - $260,000 $260,000 - $270,000 $270,000 - $280,000 $280,000 - $290,000 $290,000 - $300,000 $300,000 - $500,000 Over $500,000 Total Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
7 4 4 3 4 5 7 5 2 3 2 1 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 0 2 4 0 69
Page 3-21
improved residential properties and 37 unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 3-9). Consequently, improved residential properties represented 60 percent of the market over the three year period. The sale of improved residential property declined of about 61 percent between 2007 and 2009. The number of improved residential property sales sold in the vicinity of Powell fell from 56 sales in 2007 to 24 sales in 2009. Similar to Cody, this decline likely reflected downturns in both the national and regional economies. TABLE 3-9 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS VICINITY OF POWELL 2007-2009
IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Year 2007 2008 2009
Number of sales
Average sale price
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
56 46 24
$213,386 $234,430 $205,538
1,570 2,100 2,157
BUILDABLE LOT SALES Number of sales
Average sale price
Average Lot Size (acres)
37 24 15
$128,232 $136,282 $88,517
34 55 29
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
The size of homes sold between 2007 and 2009 actually increased. The average home sold contained 1,570 square feet in 2007, expanded to 2,100 square feet in 2008, and rose to 2,157 square feet in 2009. The increase in average floor area may represent the sale of a greater proportion of older homes. The price of the average home fell from $213,386 in 2007 to $205,538 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices fell almost four percent during the 2007-2009 period. The correlation of average sale prices with the average floor space of improved residential properties probably provides a more meaningful insight to the cost of property in the vicinity of Powell. In 2007, the cost per square foot for improved residential properties was almost $136 per square foot. The cost per square foot fell to about $112 in 2008, and declined further to approximately $95 in 2009. This trend contrasts sharply with average floor space costs in the City of Powell where average floor space costs rose 25 percent between 2007 and 2009. Various factors influence average floor space costs. For example, variability in the age and size of housing sold during the 2007-2009 period could easily spike or decline sale prices in any given year. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 40 improved residential property listings in the vicinity of Powell. The average list or asking price for these properties was $286,290. List prices for ninety-five percent of the available improved residential properties near Powell were under $500,000 (Fulkerson, 2010). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the total number of improved residential Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-22
property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent housing demand. This correlation suggested that available housing inventory in January 2010 could theoretically meet housing demands or through August 2011 (Fulkerson, 2010). Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices for properties in the vicinity of Powell ranged between $140,000 and $1.0 million. But listing prices TABLE 3-10 for 50 percent of all available properties near AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS Powell fell in the $260,000-$550,000 range VICINITY OF POWELL (Table 3-10). APRIL 2010 Selling Price
3.4.4 Town of Meeteetse
3.4.4.1 Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Similar to Cody and Powell, the purchasers of residential property between 2007 and 2009 demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. Between 2007 and 2009, 15 improved residential properties and five unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 311). Improved residential properties represented 75 percent of the market over the three year period. But, in contrast to both Powell and Cody, the sale of buildable residential lots in Meeteetse represented a considerably larger portion of the market.
Number of Units Available
$140,000 - $150,000 2 $150,000 - $160,000 2 $160,000 - $170,000 0 $170,000 - $180,000 2 $180,000 - $190,000 4 $190,000 - $200,000 1 $200,000 - $210,000 1 $210,000 - $220,000 1 $220,000 - $230,000 1 $230,000 - $240,000 3 $240,000 - $250,000 2 $250,000 - $260,000 0 $260,000 - $270,000 3 $270,000 - $280,000 2 $280,000 - $290,000 1 $290,000 - $300,000 0 $300,000 - $550,000 15 $550,000 – $750,000 1 $750,000 – $1,000,000 1 Total 42 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
TABLE 3-11 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS TOWN OF MEETEETSE, WYOMING 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
9 4 2
Average Sale Price
$127,128 $ 50,775 $ 232,500
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Number of Sales
1,607 1,050 1,967
3 2 0
Average Sale Price
$102,544 $27,500 N/A
Average Lot Size (acres)
54 4 N/A
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-23
Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales within the municipal boundary of the Town of Meeteetse fell from nine sales in 2007 to two sales in 2009. This represented a decline of about 78 percent. The limited number of improved residential property sales in Meeteetse is primarily influenced by its more remote relocation and distance to jobs, commercial shopping areas, and public services. But similar to other Park County communities, the downturn in the national and regional economies clearly influenced this decline. The size of homes sold during the three-year increased about 22 percent between 2007 and 2009. The average home sold in 2007 contained 1,607 square feet in 2007. But the average size of homes sold in 2008 shrunk to 1,050 square feet and then increased to 1,967 square feet in 2009. The variability in the average size of housing units probably does not signify any significant trend as few new homes have recently been constructed in this community. The average size of the housing units for each year also reflects only several residential sales during the three-year period. The average price of improved residential property was also highly variable between 2007 and 2009. The price of the average home slid from $127,128 in 2007 to $50,775 in 2008, and then rose dramatically to $232,500 in 2009. This change initially suggests that average home prices increased almost 83 percent during the 2007-2009 period. However, a closer examination of these transactions indicates that the wide swing in sale prices reflects significantly different types of residential property. For example, two of the four sales transactions in 2008 included two single-wide mobile homes. The limited number of sales and high variability in average floor space provides a more effective means to examine housing costs. Viewed on a square foot basis, housing sales reflected a $48 to $118 per square foot range between 2007 and 2009. The cost per square foot in 2008 was only $48. The higher end of this range occurred in 2009. Again, a more detailed review of improved residential property sales data for Meeteetse indicates that two of the four housing sales in 2008 included the sale of two single-wide mobile homes. Overall, the market for improved residential properties was limited between 2007 and 2009. Available residential property sales data suggest that this community was impacted more significantly by the national recession than other Park County communities. But another factor constricting the market was the lack of available inventory and available properties that can accommodate future residential expansion. The sale of buildable lots in Meeteetse Trails Estates, now owned by Fred Huppert, president of Huppert Brothers Construction Inc. in Billings, Montana, is constrained by a lack of drainage improvements, collateral, and other related commitments that were outlined in a October 8, 2008 subdivision approval (Town of Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-24
Meeteetse, 2008). The Town of Meeteetse desires the landowner to construct some drainage facilities along existing subdivision roads, as well as related collateral to cover investments the Town made to construct water and sewer improvements within the subdivision (Yockey, 2010). In the absence of discussions with the present owner of the property, the Town of Meeteetse has been unable to discuss potential options with the landowner and various issues remain unresolved. In response, the Town is not issuing building permits for any new residential construction within the subdivision until outstanding issues are resolved. In July 2010, the landowner expressed his willingness to discuss potential options with the Town of Meeteetse (Pedersen, 2010).
3.4.4.2
Available Inventory
Pedersen Planning Consultants reviewed the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices ranged between $50,000 and over $500,000. Listing prices were highly variable given the limited inventory and differing property sizes. However, prices for one third of all available properties within the Town of Meeteetse were over $500,000 (Table 3-12). 3.5
AVAILABILITY AND COST OF RENTAL HOUSING
3.5.1 Size of Available Rental Inventory The U.S. Census Bureau documented 2,949 renter-occupied housing units in Park County in April 2000. The extent which available rental housing has expanded or decline during the past decade is not known at the time of this report. Data from the ongoing U.S. Census in 2010 will provide insights to this question as new data is collected and eventually compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. 3.5.2 Cost of Rental Housing
TABLE 3-12 AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOWN OF MEETEETSE APRIL 2010 Selling Price
Number of Units Available
$50,000 - $100,000 2 $100,000 - $110,000 0 $110,000 - $120,000 0 $120,000 - $130,000 1 $130,000 - $140,000 0 $140,000 - $150,000 0 $150,000 - $160,000 0 $160,000 - $170,000 1 $170,000 - $180,000 0 $180,000 - $190,000 1 $190,000 - $200,000 0 $200,000 - $210,000 1 $210,000 - $220,000 0 $220,000 - $230,000 0 $230,000 - $240,000 1 $240,000 - $250,000 0 $250,000 - $260,000 0 $260,000 - $270,000 0 $270,000 - $280,000 0 $280,000 - $290,000 0 $290,000 - $300,000 0 $300,000 - $500,000 0 Over $500,000 3 Total 10 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
A Wyoming Cost of Living Index, which is published by the Wyoming Housing Database Partnership, presents average costs for residential apartments, mobile home lots, singlefamily homes and mobile homes. Available data from Fourth Quarter 2000 through the Second Quarter 2009 provides some general insight concerning trends associated with the cost of rental housing (Table 3-13). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-25
TABLE 3-13 AVERAGE RENTAL HOUSING COSTS IN PARK COUNTY SECOND QUARTER 2000 THROUGH SECOND QUARTER 2009 Time Period
Second Quarter 2000 Fourth Quarter 2000 Second Quarter 2001 Fourth Quarter 2001 Second Quarter 2002 Fourth Quarter 2002 Second Quarter 2003 Fourth Quarter 2003 Second Quarter 2004 Fourth Quarter 2004 Second Quarter 2005 Fourth Quarter 2005 Second Quarter 2006 Fourth Quarter 2006 Second Quarter 2007 Fourth Quarter 2007 Second Quarter 2008 Fourth Quarter 2008 Second Quarter 2009
Apartments
$371 392 381 394 387 390 424 413 426 431 439 429 428 459 463 452 470 478 486
Mobile Home Lots $180 162 166 166 169 171 170 170 174 180 180 179 175 175 181 182 186 193 193
Detached Singlefamily Homes $456 498 487 506 509 534 528 558 578 615 574 563 588 581 647 667 690 674 673
Mobile Homes
$312 346 337 367 350 363 399 430 370 406 391 403 393 454 436 453 500 493 522
Source: Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010.
Between Second Quarter 2000 and Second Quarter 2009, the costs for residential apartments rose almost 31 percent, or about 3.4 percent per year. In contrast, the rental of detached single-family homes increased almost 46 percent or just over five percent per year. Mobile home rental costs increased about 67 percent between Second Quarter 2000 and Second Quarter 2009, or approximately seven percent per year. But the rental of mobile home lots rose only seven percent during this period, or just under one percent per year. 3.5.3 Rental Housing Market Trends Park County has a strong rental market. The strong summer/fall rental season generally extends from the months of April through October. The winter rental season occurs from November through March. The demand in the rental housing market is generated from a transitional workforce in selected industries of the Park County economy, seasonal residents and visitors, and a portion of the Northwest College student population in Powell who live off-campus during the school year (Drury, 2010; Evarts, 2010). Available data from the Wyoming Rental Vacancy Survey, which has been completed on a semi-annual basis during the past nine years, indicates that vacancies associated with recent home rentals varied from about one percent during the Q2 2007 to almost 3.5 percent in Q2 2009 (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-26
Discussions with selected property managers in Cody and Powell suggest that the demand for rentals slid somewhat during 2009, but consistently high demand remains from April through October. Consequently, seasonal visitor traffic and residencies in Park County strengthen the long-term marketing of rental properties and the financial viability of the rental housing market of Park County. A stronger rental market also has another consequence. The relocation of some residents to other communities typically re-supplies the local housing inventory when homeowners sell their property to reduce debt and/or apply equity for the purchase of a new home in another community. By exercising the option to rent their residential properties, homeowners in Park County have the opportunity to convert their home to a rental property or rent their property until the housing market becomes more favorable to sellers. As a result, there are, at least, two potential consequences: 1) the expansion of available home inventory probably does not occur to the extent that is experienced by other Wyoming communities; and, 2) home prices tend to hold or increase in value as homeowners, with viable property rental options, are often more able to wait for favorable market prices.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-27
CHAPTER FOUR HOUSING DEMANDS AND OTHER HOUSING NEEDS 4.1
INTRODUCTION
The identification of potential housing demands and needs provides a basis for the eventual determination of strategies that can be pursued by community leaders and potential investors to achieve a more balanced housing market. A balanced housing market is a market condition that is characterized by the following: • • •
The majority of residents in a community or regional area are able to own or rent a home that they can afford; The majority of residents live in a home that generally fulfills their criteria and preferences for a decent place to live and is not over crowded; and, Available housing inventories are generally in equilibrium.
Chapter Four presents a series of anticipated housing demands to the year 2020. The anticipated housing demands represent the amount of fee simple and rental housing that will be needed to support the housing needs of new in-migrants coming to Park County in the coming decade. The anticipated housing demands presented in Chapter Four are not a forecast of potential building activity. Rather, the potential demands represent the available housing inventory and total housing production that will be necessary to achieve a balanced housing market during the next decade. 4.2
HOUSING DEMAND MODEL AND RELATED ASSUMPTIONS
Pedersen Planning Consultants developed and applied a statistical model to estimate the potential resident population and housing demands during the coming decade, or between 2010 and 2020. Chapter Two presents the anticipated resident population for the 20102020 period, as well as various assumptions influencing future population growth in Park County during the coming decade. Forecasts of anticipated housing demand presented in Chapter Four consider the type and volume of housing that will be needed to support the housing needs and preferences for both the sales and rental housing markets. Housing forecasts are presented on an annual and cumulative basis to provide an indication of the potential housing units that are needed in each year of the coming decade. The statistical model reflects the use of a variety of assumptions concerning future market preferences. These assumptions were derived from the examination of recent sales data, the December 2009 housing inventory, building permit data, as well as discussions with real estate brokers, property managers, and local real estate developers. The specific assumptions related to the sales and rental housing markets, senior housing markets, as well as lower income households are presented in sections 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-1
4.3
HOME SALES MARKET
4.3.1 Housing Preferences
4.3.1.1
Detached Single-Family Homes
During the next decade, new jobs in various industries that make up the Park County economy will gradually expand the size of Park County’s workforce and resident population. These workers and their dependents will predominantly prefer to reside in a single-family home with a garage, as well as yard that can accommodate a play area for children, pets, gardens, and some storage area for household items and recreational equipment. Local real estate brokers point out that most first-time buyers new to the real estate market in Park County often possess a dream of owning residential property that has considerably more open space than where they relocated from.
4.3.1.2
Attached Single-Family Homes
A growing demand for attached single-family homes, e.g., townhomes and duplexes, is expected during the next decade. Attached single-family housing is somewhat less expensive to build as residential developers can achieve a greater housing density on a smaller lot, as well as construct common walls to that often help reduce construction costs. Attached single-family homes are expected to be particularly attractive to younger families seeking to afford a new home, as well as older residents desiring a residential property with less site maintenance responsibilities.
4.3.1.3
Mobile Homes
Existing mobile homes will comprise a limited segment of the future sales market. Some incoming workers and their dependents, which have poor credit or incomes that do not enable the purchase of other single-family homes in Park County, will seek the purchase of older mobile homes that are located in selected areas of Park County. For example, portions of east Cody and the south side of Powell contain pockets of older mobile homes. 4.3.2 Demand for Home Purchase Available residential sales data for 2007, 2008, and 2009 indicate that 80 percent of all residential sales in Park County included the purchase of improved residential property. During the next decade, the primary housing demand in Park County will continue to be for the purchase of improved residential properties containing an existing or new singlefamily home. The demand for single-family homes will continue to include a combination of detached and attached single-family housing, as well as mobile homes. The achievement of a balanced housing market is partially dependent upon bringing housing supply and demand in equilibrium. The future re-sale of existing homes represents an important part of that equation. Although, the strong rental market in Park County limits the replenishment of local housing inventories as some homeowners place Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-2
their vacated properties into the rental market until home values reach a desired price level in the home sale market. New home construction is needed to meet the demands and buyer preferences that are not met via the home re-sale market. New homes will primarily be built on residential lots within existing and future residential subdivisions. Secondarily, some older, deteriorating homes will need to be replaced with newly constructed homes on the same property. The extent of need for new home construction is somewhat predictable through the examination of anticipated population migration trends, building permit records, as well as home occupancy and housing age characteristics. During the next decade, the overall home sales market demand in Park County represents a need for about 4,081 housing units. The type and extent of demand for home purchases is expected to vary considerably between the City of Cody, City of Powell, Town of Meeteetse and the unincorporated area of Park County. The anticipated trends in these communities are discussed more fully in the following paragraphs.
4.3.2.1
City of Cody
The demand for new home purchases in Cody will primarily be generated by persons coming to new jobs in the vicinity of Cody. Secondarily, the community will also continue to attract persons who are nearing or in their retirement years. Cody is the economic, political, and commercial center of Park County. The community is characterized by a more diversified housing inventory and possesses a variety of recreational opportunities. For this reason, Cody will attract the largest share of the overall demand for home purchases. Most incoming workers will be seeking to purchase an improved residential property that contains an existing home or a residential lot where a new home can be constructed. Between 2010 and 2020, the overall demand for home purchases in the City of Cody is expected to include approximately 1,335 housing units (Table 4-1). It is anticipated that the home re-sale market will likely provide the housing necessary to support roughly 90 percent of the total demand for home purchases. The remaining 10 percent of housing demand is expected to be met through new home construction. This assumption is based, in part, upon a correlation of building permits for new residential construction with the number of existing homes sold between 2007 and 2009. Primary demand is anticipated for detached single-family homes and, secondarily, from attached family homes and mobile homes (Table 4-1). General observations of the housing stock during the December 2009 inventory and a review of housing age characteristics in April 2000 suggest that a limited housing demand will also be generated via the gradual, replacement of about of roughly 99 older homes in the community that presently are over 50 years in age.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-3
4.3.2.2 City of Powell The demand for new home purchases in Powell will primarily be derived from incoming workers that secure jobs in the vicinity of both Powell and Cody. Powell is expected secure a significant portion of the overall demand for home purchases since the community contains diversified commercial and public services and is the home of Northwest College. Perhaps more importantly, housing in Powell is typically 30 percent less than the values of homes in Cody. Consequently, Powell will likely draw a proportion of new incoming residents who are concerned with the affordability of housing or attracted to a smaller community. It is anticipated that the overall demand for housing purchases between 2010 and 2020 will include about 749 housing units in the City of Powell (Table 4-2). Home re-sales are expected to comprise about 90 percent of the home purchases needed to support future in-migration to the community. Available housing sales data and residential building permit information suggest that the remaining demand will need to be met through the construction of roughly 283 new homes in Powell.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-4
TABLE 4-2 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND CITY OF POWELL 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached SingleFamily Homes
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
16 26 30 36 28 40 46 53 41 45 52 415
Home Re-Sale Market Attached SinglePotential Family Home Mobile Homes 2 Homes Re-Sales
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 18
1 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 3 4 4 33
18 29 34 41 32 45 52 60 46 51 58 466
Detached SingleFamily Homes
5 7 9 10 8 11 13 15 12 13 15 118
New Home Market Attached Singlefamily Mobile Replacement Homes 2 Homes Homes 3
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 154
Total New Homes
Total Home Sales Demand
1
4
19 22 23 25 23 27 28 31 27 28 30 283
37 51 57 66 55 72 80 91 73 79 88 749
Notes: 1) Total home sales market includes anticipated homes sought by incoming workers, as well as home replacement needs. 2) Attached single-family homes include two adjoining single-family homes with a common wall. 3) Replacement homes are older homes over 50 years of age that are deteriorating and not suitable for rehabilitation. 4) Total home sales demand includes potential resale homes and new home sales. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
The primary demand will be for the purchase of detached single-family homes. At the same time, rising home construction costs will eventually lead to the development of a greater number of attached housing units even though community preferences will likely remain for a detached single-family home. The sale and purchase of mobile homes will also comprise a smaller segment of the home purchase market which cannot afford the purchase of an existing stick-built home in the community. Observations from the December 2009 housing inventory and available housing age information from the 2000 Census indicate that additional home purchase demand will be generated from the gradual replacement of a portion of the homes over 50 years of age. This demand is expected to include the construction of roughly 154 new housing units during the coming decade.
4.3.2.3 Town of Meeteetse The Town of Meeteetse will also experience some demand for home purchases in the coming decade. The demand will primarily come from incoming workers and their dependents who will be seeking a smaller community away from the larger communities of Cody and Powell. These potential homebuyers will more likely be working for the oil or transportation industries. The overall demand for home purchases between 2010 and 2020 is expected to include approximately 78 housing units in the Town of Meeteetse (Table 4-3). The re-sale of existing homes will probably meet about 90 percent of this demand. The remaining demand for home purchases will likely be derived from new home construction. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-5
TABLE 4-3 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND TOWN OF MEETEETSE 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units) Home Re-Sale Market
Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
New Home Market
Detached Attached Detached Attached Single Single ReplaceTotal Potential Single Single Family Family ment New Family Mobile Home Re- Family Mobile Homes 2 Homes Homes 3 Homes Homes 2 Homes Homes Homes Sales 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 1 0 0 2 3 5 0 1 6 1 0 0 2 3 4 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 1 0 0 2 3 5 0 1 6 1 0 0 2 3
43
0
8
51
5
0
0
22
27
1
Total Home Sales Demand 4
4 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 78
Notes: 1. Total home sales market includes anticipated homes sought by incoming workers, as well as home replacement needs. 2. Attached single family homes includes two adjoining single family homes with a common wall. 3. Replacement homes are older homes over 50 years of age that are deteriorating and not suitable for rehabilitation. 4.Total home sales demand includes potential resale homes and new home sales. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
The demand for new home construction will also be generated by the need to replace various older homes in the community. Observations from the December 2009 housing inventory and available housing age information suggest that housing replacement needs may include, at least, 22 homes between 2010 and 2020.
4.3.2.4 Unincorporated Area of Park County The demand for home purchases in the unincorporated area of Park County will be led by more affluent workers desiring to live in a more rural setting in the vicinity of Cody and Powell. Second home buyers seeking a seasonal residence in Park County will also continue to generate considerable demand for home purchases in the unincorporated area. Rural residential housing near Clark
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-6
During the next decade, it is anticipated that the overall demand for home purchases in the unincorporated area of Park County will include roughly 1,919 housing units (Table 44). The resale of existing homes is expected to comprise about 90 percent of this demand. New home construction will address the remainder of this demand. It is estimated that some 55 homes will need replacement due to age or other facility deterioration. This is only an estimate as the December 2009 inventory did not include the documentation of housing in the unincorporated area. TABLE 4-4 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND UNINCORPORATED PARK COUNTY 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units) Home Re-Sale Market
Year
Detached Single Family Homes
Attached Single Family Homes 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
55 88 105 125 99 139 161 184 141 155 175 1,425
7 10 12 15 12 16 19 22 17 18 21 169
New Home Market
Mobile Homes
Potential Home Re-Sales
Detached Single Family Homes
Attached Single Family Homes 2
Mobile Homes
Replacement Homes 3
3 6 6 7 5 8 9 10 8 9 10 83
65 104 123 147 116 163 189 216 166 182 206 1,677
6 10 12 14 11 15 18 20 16 17 19 158
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 19
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 55
Total New Homes
12 17 19 21 18 23 26 29 23 25 28 242
1
Total Home Sales Demand
4
77 121 142 168 134 186 215 245 189 207 234 1,919
Notes: 1) Total home sales market includes anticipated homes sought by incoming workers, as well as home replacement needs. 2) Attached single family homes includes two adjoining single family homes with a common wall.3) Replacement homes are older homes over 50 years of age that are deteriorating and not suitable for rehabilitation. 4) Total home sales demand includes potential resale homes and new home sales. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
4.4
RENTAL MARKET
4.4.1 Market Preferences
4.4.1.1
Single-Family Homes
Detached and attached single-family homes will likely continue to provide a significant proportion of homes in the rental market. Property management representatives indicate that few vacancies are available from April through October as the rental market accommodates a combination of short-term professionals and technical personnel such as doctors and nurses, seasonal residents, Northwest College students, and lower income workers. Aside from a healthy demand, detached single-family homes and townhomes draw higher rental revenues that other types of available rental housing in Park County. In Second Quarter 2009, the average rental for a single-family home in Park County was about $673 per month (Western Economic Services, 2008). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-7
4.4.1.2
Apartments
Residential apartments will also continue to be an attractive housing option for the same range of individuals preferring single-family homes. Seasonal residents represent one exception; they typically prefer and can afford a more costly single-family home rental. Residential apartments offer the convenience of no site maintenance. However, laundry facilities are sometimes provided only in common space areas rather than each housing unit. Somewhat less convenience and privacy associated with an apartment rental is usually offset by a lower rental cost. In Second Quarter 2009, the average apartment rental cost approximately $486 per month (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010).
4.4.1.3 Mobile Homes Mobile homes are a desirable option to many households with lower incomes. While these homes are not necessarily a preference, they are often the only realistic option given the rental costs associated with single-family rental housing and the availability of apartment rental units. Otherwise, the average mobile home rental in Second Quarter 2009 was $522 (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). 4.4.2
Demand for Rental Housing
4.4.2.1 Cody During the coming decade, about 24 percent of the total housing demand in Cody is expected to be for rental housing. This translates into a demand for approximately 411 rental housing units (Table 45). It is anticipated that single-family homes will capture roughly 45 percent of Cody’s rental housing market. A similar proportion of the market will likely be served by residential apartments. Mobile homes and mobile home lots will probably provide housing opportunities for approximately 10 percent of Cody’s rental housing market.
Park County Housing Assessment
TABLE 4-5 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND CITY OF CODY 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached Single Family Homes
Apartments
Townhomes
Mobile Home
Total Rental Housing Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
5 8 9 11 8 12 14 16 12 14 15 124
6 10 12 14 11 16 18 21 16 18 20 162
2 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 43
3 5 6 7 6 8 9 11 8 9 10 82
16 26 30 36 28 40 46 53 40 46 50 411
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-8
The rental housing market is expected to remain strong during the next 10 years. The market will continue to be driven by seasonal visitors between April and October, professional and technical personnel working in the vicinity of Cody during short and medium term assignments, as well as personnel working in lower income jobs associated with accommodations and food services, eating and drinking establishments, and retail trade. New incoming workers to Cody will also be seeking short-term rentals as they initially relocate from other communities and begin their search for a desirable home purchase. One property manager working in Cody indicates that there is considerable demand for larger single-family homes containing, at least, three bedrooms. Much of the rental housing inventory includes one and two-bedroom units.
4.4.2.2
Powell
Between 2010 and 2020, rental housing is expected to represent approximately 35 percent of the total housing demand for Powell, or about 398 housing units (Table 4-6). Students at Northwest College will represent the primary rental market. It is anticipated that students residing in Northwest College dormitories and privately owned single-family homes and apartments will capture roughly 75 percent of Powell’s rental housing market. Retirees and lower income residents will probably represent the remaining rental housing market.
4.4.2.3
Meeteetse
TABLE 4-6 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND CITY OF POWELL 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached SingleFamily Homes
Apartments
Townhomes
Mobile Homes
Total Rental Housing Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
2 2 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 41
11 17 20 25 20 27 32 36 27 30 34 279
2 4 4 5 4 6 7 8 6 6 7 59
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 19
16 24 28 36 28 39 46 52 39 42 48 398
The demand for rental housing in Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010. Meeteetse expected to include about eight rental housing units during the coming decade (Table 4-7)). Rental housing demands are likely to represent not more than nine percent of Meeteetse’s total housing demand. The primary market is expected to be for lower income residents and some retirees. Rental housing opportunities will probably be limited to the continued availability of several mobile homes and mobile home lots, as well as a few single-family home rentals.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-9
Some additional rental demand might be generated from seasonal residents if some form of rental housing were to be developed in the community. The potential development of a smaller Detached Total condominium complex within a portion Single Rental of the Meeteetse Trails Estates could ApartFamily TownMobile Housing Year ments Homes homes Homes Demand possibly attract some seasonal rentals 2010 0 0 0 0 0 within the community if the former 2011 0 0 0 0 0 golf course and related site 2012 1 0 0 0 1 improvements were completed by the 2013 1 0 0 0 1 developer and approved by the Town 2014 0 0 0 0 0 2015 1 0 0 0 1 of Meeteetse. Outstanding financial 2016 1 0 0 0 1 issues plaguing this subdivision project 2017 1 0 0 0 1 hamper the prospects for the 2018 1 0 0 0 1 development of a condominium 2019 1 0 0 0 1 complex or single-family homes in this 2020 1 0 0 0 1 subdivision. In the absence of an Total 8 0 0 0 8 onsite amenity such as a golf course, Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010. Meeteetse’s distance to other commercial shopping areas, public services, and recreational amenities would not attract a second home market. TABLE 4-7 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND TOWN OF MEETEETSE 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
4.4.2.4
Unincorporated Area of Park County
Demands for rental housing in the unincorporated area of Park County are expected to include about 99 rental housing units, or roughly five percent of the total housing demand for the unincorporated area (Table 4-8). The primary rental market is expected to include seasonal residents who predominantly will live in Park County from April through October. Other persons renting homes in the unincorporated area will likely include employed and retired residents desiring a more rural lifestyle. Employed residents will likely work in the vicinity of Cody and Powell or operate homebased businesses.
Park County Housing Assessment
TABLE 4-8 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND UNINCORPORATED PARK COUNTY 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached Single Family Homes
Apartments
Townhomes
Mobile Homes
Total Rental Housing Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
3 5 6 8 6 8 9 11 9 9 10 84
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10
3 6 7 9 7 9 11 13 11 11 12 99
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-10
It is anticipated that seasonal residents will primarily seek single-family homes. These homes are expected to include a combination of both detached single-family dwellings and townhomes. 4.5
SENIOR HOUSING
4.5.1 Potential Market The potential market for senior housing generally includes persons 65 years of age and older. In April 2000, this age group included 3,740 residents, or about 14.5 percent of Park County’s total population (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). Assuming an estimated 2009 Park County population of 29,548 residents in 2010 and that 14.5 percent of the total county population was 65 years of age or older, the 65 year and older population included about 4,284 persons in 2010. But, managers of local independent living, assisted living, and long term care facilities in Powell and Cody report that most seniors entering these facilities are typically between 75 and 80 years of age. Housing needs for seniors are highly variable. Many persons 65 years and older live independently and enjoy very active and productive lives, often well into their 80s and 90s. In contrast, others with disabilities or health issues require assisted living or long term care. For this reason, housing needs for seniors generally include a range of housing alternatives: • • • • 4.5.2
Owner or renter-occupied housing for persons requiring no care; Independent living units that provide limited food service; Assisted living for persons requiring some care; and, Long term or nursing home care. Available Senior Housing Facilities
Aside from privately-owned homes, there are several senior housing facilities in Park County. These housing facilities are situated in both Powell and Cody.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-11
4.5.2.1
Cody
In Cody, there are two assisted living facilities and one long term care facility. •
Absaroka Senior Living Community has 46 apartments and is licensed to serve 51 persons. About 40 percent of the residents come from other communities outside of Wyoming and are relatives of persons who live in Cody. Another 40 percent were already residents of Cody when they entered the facility. And roughly 20 percent of Absaroka’s residents came from other communities in Park County or Wyoming (Eldredge, 2010).
Absaroka Senior Living Community typically has an occupancy rate of about 85 percent. Residents entering Absaroka are in their early, mid, and late 80’s. Only a couple of residents are in their 70s. •
Beehive Home of Cody that has 11 living units and can serve up to 12 residents. The age of residents in this facility range between 84 and 98 years of age. Most residents are from Cody. Two residents are from outside of Wyoming and have relatives in Cody. This facility is usually fully occupied (Preuninger, 2010).
•
West Park Long Term Care Center provides long-term care and is licensed to serve 128 residents. However, the facility closed its intermediate and skilled care facilities when Absaroka Senior Living Community was established a few years ago. West Park is presently staffed to serve up to 90 residents. West Park Long Term Care Center typically houses about 80 residents who range between 60 and 100 years of age although most residents are 75 years and older (Kaiser, 2010).
4.5.2.2
Powell
In Powell, senior housing facilities are available for independent living, assisted living, and long term care.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-12
•
Rocky Mountain Manor is a 56 unit independent living facility. Most residents are in their 80s. The rental of these housing units is subsidized by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
•
The Heartland is an assisted living facility that is licensed to serve up to 24 persons. This facility is owned and operated by Powell Valley Health Care, Inc. The age of residents generally includes persons who are in their 80s and 90s. The occupancy of this facility is approximately 95 to 100 percent.
•
Powell Valley Care Center, which is also owned and operated by Powell Valley Health Care, Inc., is a 100-bed, long-term care facility. This facility maintains an occupancy of roughly 95 percent.
4.5.3
4.5.3.1
Senior Housing Demand
Seniors Requiring No Care
In April 2010, there were roughly 310 persons residing in some form of senior housing in Park County (Table 4-9). Assuming that the 65 years and older age group represented about 4,284 persons in 2010, it can be reasonably estimated that just over seven percent of the 65+ age group in Park County, or one percent of the total county population, are residing in local senior housing facilities. Conversely, this indicates that roughly 93 percent of the 65+ population is living independently in owner-occupied homes or rental housing. During the next decade, it is believed that 93 percent of the future senior population will continue to live in owner-occupied or rental housing. These seniors will, in part, be supported and cared for by other family members.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-13
TABLE 4-9 SENIOR HOUSING DEMANDS PARK COUNTY 2010 – 2020 Housing Demands (Housing Units)
Year
Anticipated Population
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
29,548 29,883 30,273 30,520 30,925 31,411 31,993 32,431 32,846 33,316 33,829
Anticipated 65 + Population
Seniors Requiring No Care
4,284 4,333 4,390 4,425 4,484 4,555 4,639 4,702 4,763 4,831 4,905
3,974 4,019 4,072 4,105 4,159 4,225 4,303 4,362 4,418 4,481 4,550
Independent Living
56 57 58 58 59 60 61 62 62 63 64
Assisted Living
80 81 82 82 83 85 86 88 89 90 91
Long Term Care
174 176 179 180 182 185 189 191 194 197 200
Total Housing Demand
310 314 318 320 325 330 336 341 345 350 355
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
4.5.3.2
Independent Living
Independent living facilities are typically residential apartment buildings or housing complexes that provide a one bedroom apartment for its residents. Each day, one or more meals are served to residents of the facility. In some cases, other support services are also provided. In 2010, almost 0.2 percent of the total county population resided in independent living facilities in Park County. During the next decade, the demand for independent living facilities is expected to represent the same proportion of the total county population.
4.5.3.3
Assisted Living
Assisted living facilities generally provide a number of separate, living units within a larger complex. Common space areas include, at least, dining facilities and general activity areas for facility residents. Various types of intermediate care are provided to residents on an as-needed basis. When necessary, prescribed medicines are also distributed to facility residents. Assisted living facilities in Park County served about 80 residents in 2010, or about 0.2 percent of the total resident population (Table 4-9). It is anticipated that a similar proportion of residents will need or desire assisted living facilities during the next decade. A greater demand for assisted living facilities probably exists. While private pay assisted living facilities are available in both Powell and Cody, the cost for these living facilities is prohibitive to many seniors. The present use of assisted living facilities is further Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-14
constrained by the fact that Medicare will typically cover qualified health care costs for a senior residing in an assisted living facility, but does not cover the housing cost of seniors residing within an assisted living facility.
4.5.3.4
Long Term Care
Long term care for seniors represents residency in a skilled nursing facility that typically provides living accommodations in private or semi-private rooms. Residents receive skilled and intermediate care. Rehabilitation services, hospice care, and other related services often supplement skilled and intermediate care that is provided by the facility. The two long-term care facilities in Park County served about 175 residents in 2010 (Table 4-9). This represents almost 0.6 percent of the total county population. The same proportion of residents is expected to require long term care in the coming decade. The demand for long-term care may be overstated in one sense because some seniors obtaining long-term care actually need only some limited supervision and assistance. Since Medicare does not cover the cost of seniors residing in assisted living facilities, some seniors with limited incomes often request Medicaid assistance for long term care even though they only require limited supervision and assistance (Kaiser, 2010). Because the cost of accommodations associated with long term care are subsidized jointly by the State of Wyoming and the U.S. Government, seniors with limited incomes are then able to obtain intermediate care. 4.5.4 Senior Housing Needs Senior housing needs are generally influenced by the health of this segment of the population, available support from other family members, lifestyle preferences, and opportunities for social interaction. The relatively high proportion of persons requiring no care suggests that the health of seniors in Park County is generally good and that many seniors are probably supported, to some extent, by younger members of their extended family. In some cases, seniors may also be residing with children and providing some child support for their grandchildren as their parents work. The preceding estimation of senior housing demands presented in section 4.5.3 assumes that the present proportions of demand for independent, assisted living and long term care will generally remain constant. Using this assumption, the future need for senior housing will simply expand with the anticipated increase in resident population. By the year 2020, it is anticipated that demands for senior housing will rise to about 355 housing units (Table 4-9). Existing assisted living and long term care facilities are expected to be able to meet this demand because some additional facility capacity is available, particularly for long term care in Cody. West Park Long Term Care Center in Cody which is licensed to serve up to 128 persons but presently serves an average population of about 80 persons. In contrast, the demand for independent living units will be somewhat greater than what is available at the Rocky Mountain Manor in Powell. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-15
While the capacity of existing assisted living and long term care facilities appear adequate to serve anticipated senior housing demands in the coming decade, there appears to be a need for another senior living complex. In other states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin, senior housing complexes in rural communities often comprise a combination of independent living, assisted living and long term care facilities in one location or complex. As people age, the desire to relocate and re-establish residency in a new place usually diminishes. The maintenance of associations with various family members and health care providers becomes increasingly important. The potential loss of these associations and/or changes in their living environment, e.g., where they live, can be disruptive to both their mental and physical well being. The availability of a housing complex in Park County that enables seniors to conveniently transition from independent to assisted living and, ultimately, to skilled long term care could provide a more attractive setting for those nearing or in their retirement years. 4.6
HOUSING NEEDS FOR LOWER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
4.6.1 General An important consideration associated with housing needs is the future capability of homeowners and renters to obtain housing. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development regards incomes lower income households as those households which earn less than 80 percent of median family income in any given year. Lower income households are further defined into three general categories:
Extremely low income homeowners or renter who earn less than 31 percent of median family income; Very low income homeowners or renters who earn between 31 and 50 percent of median family income; and, Low income homeowners or renters who earn between 51 and 80 percent of median family income.
In order to examine future housing needs of lower income households, Pedersen Planning Consultants correlated its Park County housing demand forecasts for the next decade with the proportional family income estimates published by Western Economic Services for the Wyoming Housing Database Partnership in February 2010. 4.6.2 Home Sales Market In FY 2009, Park County’s median family income was $57,900 (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010). Extremely low income households earned up to $19,100 per year while very low income homeowners had a total annual household income of not more than $29,950. Low income households had earnings not greater than $46,320 per year. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-16
Segregation of the anticipated market demand for home sales in Park County by annual family income ranges (Table 4-10) enables a determination of roughly what proportion of the future market will represent lower income households. In 2010, for example, extremely low income homeowners, which will earn less than 30 percent of median family income, are expected to comprise about 14 homeowners, or about eight percent of the total home sales market. Very low income homeowners, earning between 31 and 50 percent of Park County’s median family income, will probably represent about 12 percent of the home sales market. Another 17 percent of the total home sales market demand is expected to include low income households earning between 51 and 80 percent of median family income. TABLE 4-10 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND BY FAMILY INCOME RANGES 2010 TO 2020
Year
Homeowners by Range of Median Family Income 0-30 % 31-50% 51-80% 81-95% 96+%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
14 39 25 30 24 33 37 43 33 36 41 356
21 57 37 44 35 48 55 62 49 53 60 521
30 80 53 62 50 68 77 88 69 75 85 736
15 41 27 32 26 35 40 46 36 39 44 381
93 248 163 192 155 210 240 273 214 233 263 2,284
Total 174 465 306 360 291 393 450 512 401 436 492 4,278
Notes: 1. < 31% Median Family Income (MFI) represents extremely low income homeowners or renters. 2. 31-50% Median Family Income (MFI) represents very low income homeowners or renters. 3. 51-80% Median Family Income (MFI) comprises low income homeowners or renters. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
On a cumulative basis, it is anticipated that extremely low income, very low income, and low income homeowners will comprise roughly 37 percent of the home sales market. Consequently, the bulk of the market for home sales will include homeowners earning greater than 80 percent of median family income. 4.6.3 Rental Housing Demand In contrast to home buyers, households securing rental housing are expected to comprise a significantly greater proportion of lower income households during the next decade. It is anticipated that extremely low income households will account for about 23 percent of the total rental market demand. Very low income households are expected to comprise approximately 18 percent of the rental market. Almost 24 percent of the rental market will include low income households. On a cumulative basis, lower income households are expected to represent about 65 of the total rental housing market (Table 4-11). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-17
TABLE 4-11 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMANDS BY FAMILY INCOME RANGES 2010 TO 2020
Renters by Range of Median Family Income Year
0-30 %
31-50%
51-80%
81-95%
96+%
Total
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
8 13 15 19 15 21 24 28 21 23 26
6 10 12 15 12 16 19 22 17 18 20
8 13 16 20 15 21 25 28 22 24 27
3 4 5 6 5 7 8 9 7 8 9
9 15 18 22 17 24 28 32 24 27 30
35 56 66 82 63 89 104 119 91 100 111
Total
212
168
219
72
244
916
Notes: 1. < 31% Median Family Income (MFI) represents extremely low income homeowners or renters. 2. 31-50% Median Family Income (MFI) represents very low income homeowners or renters. 3. 51-80% Median Family Income (MFI) comprises low income homeowners or renters. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
4.6.4 Housing Needs for Lower Income Households Housing needs for lower income households boil down to the availability of affordable housing. The purchase of a home in Park County will remain the preferred option for all new incoming residents. But, the availability of affordable rental housing is also essential as lower income households are expected to represent roughly two-thirds of the rental market. It is important to remember that lower income households include persons who are the backbone of various industries in the Park County economy. Many of these workers support industries such as accommodations and food services, construction, retail trade, as well as eating and drinking establishments. Their presence in the community is essential to long-term stability and growth of the Park County workforce. The availability of skilled workforce is a key consideration to companies considering the establishment of a new business, as well as the expansion or relocation of an existing business operation in Park County. In the absence of affordable housing options, some local employers will be required or encouraged to retain workers from countries outside of the United States on a seasonal basis and provide housing for their workers in order to keep their business establishments viable. This workforce option is sometimes important to sustain the profitability of selected businesses. But, unfortunately, incoming transient workforces typically do not build and expand skill levels of the local workforce. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-18
CHAPTER FIVE RESIDENTIAL LENDING POLICIES AND HOME AFFORDABILITY 5.1
INTRODUCTION
Many Rocky Mountain communities frequently identify the lack of affordable housing as an important housing issue. Unfortunately, the term “affordable” is relative and specific to the housing market under consideration. For example, the price for a home regarded as affordable in Jackson, Wyoming is very different from a comparable home considered affordable in Cody. The difference in affordability reflects significant differences in average household incomes and the price of available housing inventory. Despite regional differences in what constitutes affordable housing, the issue is significant to future business investments because the workforce and their dependents, who support business relocations and expansions, will always require a place to live. Further, if the price of local housing is far beyond the capability of employees to purchase or rent housing, incoming workers will soon be looking for another place to live and work. For this reason, Chapter Five more closely examines the issue of home affordability in Park County. This issue is initially evaluated in the context of general residential lending policies of three local banks in Park County that offer residential mortgages. Loan policies were used to calculate income and debt levels that are generally necessary to qualify for various sizes of residential loans, potential minimum monthly loan amortization payments, and the minimum monthly income that would be required to service the residential loan debt. Subsequently, loan amortization amounts are correlated with the price of existing homes in April 2010 and average monthly income to gain some insight concerning how affordable available housing is to the anticipated residential market.
5.2
SOURCES OF HOME FINANCING IN PARK COUNTY
There are, at least, three financial institutions in Park County that provide and service residential loan mortgages. Various banks in Park County regularly make residential loans to qualified buyers. PPC discussed general residential policies with representatives of three local banks to gain a better understanding of residential loan opportunities and related residential lending policies. These banks included First National Bank and Trust, Pinnacle Bank, and Wells Fargo.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 5-1
5.3
RESIDENTIAL LOAN POLICIES
5.3.1 General Local banks in Park County primarily make conventional residential loans. Most of the conventional loans made by local banks ultimately are sold on the secondary home market. Loan qualification requirements vary somewhat between local banks. But, as always, loan qualification is dependent upon various considerations such as the desired length of loan amortization, the size of the down payment, the debt the potential borrower is already carrying and will carry with the new loan, income of the borrower, and their credit score. 5.3.2 Debt Ratios Acceptable debt ratios used by local banks vary. Local banks want to see that anticipated housing expenses will not exceed more than 29 percent of an applicant’s monthly income. Overall loan obligation ratios typically range between 41 and 45 percent (Westerhold, 2010). For conventional loans, these ratios vary somewhat from bank to bank, but more significant variations in lending criteria lie in the lending guidelines associated with various home loan programs that are offered by each bank. 5.3.3 Credit Scores Local bank representatives indicate that residential loan applicants need a credit score of about 720-740 for conventional loans that will include a five percent down payment (Westerhold, 2010). In contrast, a credit score of 620 will suffice for FHA, USDA Rural Development, and VA loan programs (Bunn, 2010). 5.3.4 Interest Rates In March 2010, local banks in Park County were offering 30-year, conventional loans at a rate of approximately five percent. But, local bank representatives expect that home mortgage interest rates will likely rise to, at least, six percent by the end of 2010 (Bunn, 2010). 5.4
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
Many persons seeking residential mortgages in Park County are first time home buyers. In March 2010, first time homebuyers, or persons who have not owned a home during the past three years, could obtain 100 percent financing at an interest rate of 4.75 percent. This lending opportunity is available from local banks via a first time home buyer program offered by the Wyoming Community Development Agency (WCDA). The price of an existing or new home cannot exceed $236,000 (Bunn, 2010). Eligible borrowers can earn up to $63,900 for one and two person households and $73,400 for households comprising three or more persons (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 5-2
Other lending opportunities for first time homebuyers include U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development loans, and Veterans Administration (VA) loans. Each of these programs offers 100 percent financing to first time homebuyers. 5.5
BRIDGE LOANS
At least one local bank in Park County formerly provided bridge loans to new, incoming residents who had out-of-state home on the market and wanted to purchase a new home in Park County. The out-of-state properties were used as collateral for the new loan. But, First National Bank and Trust in Cody no longer provides this type of financing due to uncertainties of property values in other regional markets in the United States (Bunn, 2010). 5.6 5.6.1
AFFORDABILITY OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY Affordability of Home Purchases
As stated earlier, financial institutions such as banks regularly review residential loan applications using various lending criteria (see Section 5.3). These and other criteria influence the ability of consumers to purchase a new home. The application of these criteria to potential residential loan amounts also enables the determination of monthly income and debt levels that financial institutions may require for various sizes of residential loans (Table 5-1). When this information is correlated with available industry income data and the price of available housing inventory, the capability of local residents to purchase residential property becomes clearer. For example, the average price of home in the City of Powell in 2009 was $189,597. When viewed in the context of debt and income levels desired by banks and other financial institutions, a conventional mortgage for a Powell home valued at roughly $190,000 would require a borrower to have a monthly income of roughly $4,776 (Table 51), or annual income of about $57,312. This assumes a 30-year loan amortization period at a loan rate of 6.0 percent, as well as a five percent down payment. The average price of a home in the City of Cody was $248,036 in 2009. A conventional mortgage for a $250,000 home would require a borrower to have a monthly income of roughly $6,284 (Table 5-1), or an annual income of about $75,408. In First Quarter 2009, the average monthly wage in Park County economy was $2,936 which equates to annual income of about $35,232. The only industries exceeding or nearing the monthly income of $4,776 for a $189,000 loan included persons working in mining ($9,405), utilities ($4,404) and federal government ($4,183). Only persons working in the mining industry earn an average income that exceeds the monthly income requirement of $6,284 for a $250,000 home. The average monthly wage of workers in all other industries was considerably under the monthly income of roughly $4,776. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 5-3
Consequently, higher income workers and two earner income households will likely continue to be the segments of the housing market that can qualify for the purchase of a home in either Powell or Cody. Available data from the 2000 Census indicates that two earner income households represented about 55 percent of all married couple families in Park County, or about 38 percent of all households in Park County. If this statistic remains relatively close to employment trends in 2010, it suggests that about 38 percent of all households in Park County would likely qualify for a new home if they had a favorable credit rating and funds available to support down payment requirements. TABLE 5-1 INCOME AND DEBT LEVELS DESIRED BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR CONVENTIONAL RESIDENTIAL LOANS
Selling Price
$100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 $170,000 $180,000 $190,000 $200,000 $210,000 $220,000 $230,000 $240,000 $250,000 $260,000 $270,000 $280,000 $290,000 $300,000
Down Payment
$5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 $9,500 $10,000 $10,500 $11,000 $11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000
Loan Amount
$95,000 $104,500 $114,000 $123,500 $133,000 $142,500 $152,000 $161,500 $171,000 $180,500 $190,000 $199,500 $209,000 $218,500 $228,000 $237,500 $247,000 $256,500 $266,000 $275,500 $285,000
Principal & Interest
$570 $627 $683 $740 $797 $854 $911 $968 $1,025 $1,082 $1,139 $1,196 $1,253 $1,310 $1,367 $1,424 $1,481 $1,538 $1,595 $1,652 $1,709
Monthly Taxes
Monthly Hazard Insurance
$58 $64 $70 $76 $82 $88 $93 $99 $105 $111 $117 $123 $128 $134 $140 $146 $152 $158 $163 $169 $175
$35 $39 $42 $46 $49 $53 $56 $60 $63 $67 $70 $74 $77 $81 $84 $88 $91 $95 $98 $102 $105
Monthly Mortgage Insurance
$66 $73 $79 $86 $92 $99 $106 $112 $119 $126 $132 $139 $145 $152 $159 $165 $172 $178 $185 $192 $198
Total Monthly Mortgage Payment
$729 $802 $875 $948 $1,021 $1,093 $1,166 $1,239 $1,312 $1,385 $1,458 $1,531 $1,604 $1,677 $1,750 $1,822 $1,895 $1,968 $2,041 $2,114 $2,187
Minimum Monthly Income to Service Debt
$2,514 $2,765 $3,016 $3,268 $3,519 $3,771 $4,022 $4,273 $4,525 $4,776 $5,027 $5,279 $5,530 $5,782 $6,033 $6,284 $6,536 $6,787 $7,038 $7,290 $7,541
Note: In the development of these estimates, Pedersen Planning Consultants assumed that a prospective borrowers with good credit would apply for a conventional 30-year loan at an average of 6 percent interest with an average of 5 percent down payment. A total debt expense ratio of 29 percent were assumed for the calculation of each loan amount. Local banks and financial institutions offer a wide variety of loan options and consider many other factors during their evaluation of residential loans. Consequently, these estimates do not necessarily reflect specific loan opportunities that may be available from local financial institutions in Park County. Source: www.Mortgage101.com, 2010; and Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
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5.6.2 Affordability of Rental Housing The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development also views the affordability in the context of a consumer’s ability to pay. More specifically, the ability to pay is considered in the context of a maximum proportion of household income. “The generally accepted definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than
30 percent of its annual income on housing. Families who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing area considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2007). The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development uses this criteria to determine eligibility standards for various federal housing programs associated with the purchase, rehabilitation, and rental of housing units. If the 30 percent criteria is applied to Park County’s average monthly wage of $2,936 in First Quarter 2009, affordable home rentals would desirably not exceed $881 per month. Average monthly rental housing costs in Second Quarter 2009 ranged from $673 for detached single-family homes, $522 for mobile homes, $486 for apartments, and $193 for mobile home lots (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). Consequently, rental housing appears to be affordable to most of the employed workforce in Park County. A closer examination of the First Quarter 2009 monthly wage and employment data (Table 5-2) indicates that persons employed in several industries in the Park County economy could afford some form of rental housing, but there choices become more limited as they theoretically cannot afford the average rental price for a detached single-family home. These industries include the following: • • • • • • • •
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting Retail Trade Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Administrative and Waste Services Educational Services Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
These industries account for about one-third of the employed labor force in the First Quarter 2009. Although it is important to note that not all employees working in these industries earned incomes which were equal to or less than the average monthly income. More significantly, those employed in educational services, as well as accommodations and food services, can only afford the rental of a mobile home lot. Those working in these industries have very limited rental housing opportunities unless they reside in a two earner income household. Park County Housing Assessment
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TABLE 5-2 AFFORDABILITY OF RENTAL HOUSING TO THE EMPLOYED WORKFORCE FIRST QUARTER 2009
Total: Park County
Average Monthly Employment 12,198
Average Monthly Wages $2,936
30% of Monthly Wages $881
Private Sector Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
8,985 233 531 73 950 493 219 1,629 232 193 366 144 429 11 219 80 1,320 216 1,382 263
$2,823 $2,226 $9,405 $4,404 $2,892 $2,849 $3,689 $1,983 $2,892 $2,516 $3,507 $1,689 $3,546 $7,188 $1,736 $961 $3,027 $2,204 $1,178 $1,892
$847 $668 $2,822 $1,321 $868 $855 $1,107 $595 $868 $755 $752 $507 $1,064 $2,156 $521 $288 $908 $661 $353 $568
Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government
3,213 618 191 2,404
$3,260 $4,183 $3,776 $2,983
$978 $1,255 $1,133 $895
Notes: 1.
2.
30% of monthly wages is based upon housing affordability criteria established by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development for various federal housing programs associated with the purchase, rehabilitation, and rental of housing units. Average monthly income levels highlighted in red signify industries where employees cannot afford the rental of a detached single-family home.
Sources: Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning, 2010; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010; Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
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CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND HOUSING STRATEGIES 6.1
INTRODUCTION
The conclusions and housing strategies presented in Chapter Six are a reflection of what was learned concerning relevant demographic and economic trends (Chapter Two), existing housing characteristics (Chapter Three), housing demands and needs (Chapter Four), the affordability of housing (Chapter Five), as well as housing issues and development opportunities. As stated earlier, local real estate brokers, residential mortgage lenders, developers, non-profit housing organizations, and appropriate municipal government representatives provided considerable insights to these analyses. In Chapter Six, conclusions are accompanied with one or more strategies and related tasks that can be pursued to address existing housing issues and potential housing development opportunities. Each strategy assigns the responsibility for implementation to specific nonprofit organizations and public agencies that are associated with the financing, development, sale, and rental of housing in Park County. The strategies presented in Chapter Six represent a starting point for addressing housing issues and development opportunities. It is envisioned that these strategies would be refined and expanded on an annual basis to keep the community focused upon the sustaining the availability of a more balanced housing market. 6.2
FUTURE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT STRATEGIES
Forward Cody represents an attractive entity to coordinate and promote the implementation of these strategies in light of its focus to stimulate and expand private investment, job creation, and related economic development in Park County. The availability of housing is an essential component of community development that is necessary to attract and sustain a skilled workforce and encourage future private investments. A matrix evaluation sheet is presented in Appendix A. It is recommended that the Park County Housing Committee use this planning tool to conveniently assign priorities for future implementation of the recommended housing strategies presented in Chapter Six. PPC has successfully applied this method of prioritization to a wide variety of projects where a “blue ribbon committee” is available to help guide the prioritization of recommended strategies. Specific instructions concerning how to carry out the matrix evaluation process are presented in Appendix A. An important facet of the evaluation process is the individual rating of housing objectives by each member of the Housing Committee. This approach enables a diversified decision-making body to effectively arrive at a representative consensus of the group. Conversely, the process essentially eliminates long discussions concerning priorities with one or more persons attempting to convince other members of the decision-making group. Park County Housing Assessment
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6.3
DEMAND FOR HOUSING
6.3.1 Conclusions During the next decade, Park County is expected to experience some nominal economic expansion that will continue to generate a reasonable demand. The demand will primarily be derived from: • •
incoming employees of existing and new businesses and their dependents; and, persons seeking a permanent home for retirement.
On a cumulative basis, it is anticipated that there will be demand for roughly 4,997 housing units (Table 6-1). Most of the demand during the next decade will be for the purchase of an existing or new home. The greatest demand will be for homes in the unincorporated area because of a strong market preference for open space and other rural values. TABLE 6-1 CUMULATIVE HOUSING DEMANDS FOR PARK COUNTY 2010-2020 Type of Demand
Home Purchase Rental Total
City of Cody
1,335 411 1,746
City of Powell
749 398 1,147
Town of Meeteetse
Unincorporated Area
78 8 86
1,919 99 2,018
Total
4,081 916 4,997
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
But, significant portions of the overall demand for home purchases will also be evident in the City of Cody and City of Powell. Both of these communities contain concentrated commercial and light industrial areas, public facilities, privately-owned community facilities, a diversified housing inventory, and established residential neighborhoods. These communities will particularly be attractive to those in the employed workforce, and those households with children. Rental housing demands will predominantly be for rental housing in the City of Cody and City of Powell where most of the employed workforce resides and where most jobs in the Park County economy are based. Real estate brokerages in Park County will continue to be the primary agent for the marketing and sale of improved residential properties. Local residential developers and home building contractors can be expected to meet the demand for new homes through the development of new residential subdivisions, the sale of residential lots, and the related construction of new home structures. The normal ebb and flow of births and deaths, personal and business relocations, and retirement will continue to generate an inventory of existing homes in Park County’s real estate market. Available inventory in an attractive living environment such as Park County, as well as related sales and commission opportunities, will sustain the interest and commitment of a cadre of professional real estate brokers to facilitate the sale of existing and new homes, as well as unimproved residential lots. Park County Housing Assessment
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Perhaps more problematic, however, is the interest of real estate developers to develop new residential subdivisions where new homes can be developed and marketed. Residential developers are typically pleased to pursue new residential development projects where there is an opportunity to develop and market an attractive project and obtain a reasonable return-on-investment. However, discussions with several local real estate developers indicate that there is frustration with municipal governmental representatives who review and approve land development applications. Whether or not the frustrations of local real estate developers are justified, their past experiences with some local governmental officials represent a potential deterrent to future investment. Their participation in future residential subdivision development is essential as anticipated housing demands for new homes are not likely to draw significant interest from larger residential developer companies based in other regional areas of Wyoming and Montana. The Town of Meeteetse has an opportunity to accommodate some future residential expansion. This opportunity is the development of the Meeteetse Trails Estates subdivision and related golf course project that was to be built on the southeast side of Meeteetse. The original developer of this project failed to meet his commitment for various infrastructure improvements that were tied to subdivision approval. This forced the Town of Meeteetse to deny building permit applications from those who had purchased some lots in the subdivision. Huppert Brothers Construction, Inc., which had completed significant site improvements for the original developer, eventually gained ownership of the subdivision property since the contractor had not been paid for previous work completed on the subdivision project. This fate of this project is uncertain since the Town of Meeteetse desires to have infrastructure improvements completed. Meanwhile, the new owner of the property is left with little motivation as it faces additional costs to complete development of the original subdivision project. The resolution of the issue will require some constructive negotiations and concessions between the new property owner and the Meeteetse Town Council. 6.3.2
Strategies
Objective 1: Encourage Real Estate Developers to Invest In Future Residential Development Projects Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 1A: Local real estate developers, building contractors, real estate brokers, and mortgage lenders will be invited to attend a presentation concerning the findings of the Park County Housing Assessment. During the meeting, housing demands outlined in the Park County Housing Assessment will be identified along with recommended strategies for addressing housing issues and development opportunities. Responsibility for Implementation:
Park County Housing Assessment
Forward Cody
Final – July 6, 2010
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Objective 2: Expand Residential Expansion Opportunities in Meeteetse Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 2A: Organize a meeting with the present owner of the Meeteetse Trails subdivision who inherited the property from the original subdivision developer. An experienced professional familiar with zoning and subdivision regulations and real estate development will be retained to facilitate this meeting. The facilitator, which should have no ties to either the property owner or the Town of Meeteetse, will initially identify the purpose of the project and review the history of the subdivision project. This presentation will be based upon separate discussions with both the owner of the subdivision and appropriate municipal officials. Subsequently, the facilitator will lead a discussion concerning how the subdivision project might be completed and residential lots sold. This discussion will, in part, focus upon the resolution of infrastructure improvements with the present owner of the subdivision, as well as potential concessions that might be given by the Town of Meeteetse to provide the owner with some motivation to complete and market the project. Both the Town of Meeteetse and the developer will be requested to come to the meeting with an open mind to explore and determine feasible options for resolving the needs of both parties. Responsibility for Implementation: Forward Cody, owner of the Meeteetse Trails subdivision, Meeteetse Town Council, Meeteetse Public Works director, and facilitator retained by Forward Cody 6.4
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
6.4.1 Conclusions Home Purchases Home sales prices in Park County are generally affordable to married couple households where both husband and wife work. These two-income earner households comprise approximately 55 percent of all married couple families or about 38 percent of all households in Park County (see Chapter Five). Single wage earner households unless have a considerably tougher time affording the purchase of an existing or new home in Park County unless they earn a considerably higher income from their place of employment. Single wage earners able to qualify for home loans are more likely to be employed in the mining or utility industries, or by the federal government. The affordability of homes in the home sale market is difficult to assess for over half of Park County’s households. The capability of these households to purchase housing is highly variable as some unmarried couple households may share living expenses and be Park County Housing Assessment
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able to qualify for a home loan. Other non-family households may have earnings that are more than sufficient to purchase or rent housing. But average wage data suggests that two income earner households are the more likely candidates for a home purchase in Park County. Rental Housing In contrast, rental housing appears to be affordable to most of the employed workforce in Park County. The correlation of average wages and average rental rates for residential apartments, detached single-family homes, mobile homes and mobile lots indicate that most employed persons can afford one of these four rental options. But single earner households working in several industries in the Park County economy cannot afford the average rental price for a detached single-family home. These industries include: •
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
•
Retail Trade
•
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
•
Administrative and Waste Services
•
Educational Services
•
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
•
Accommodation & Food Services
•
Other Services, except Public Administration
These industries account for about one-third of the employed labor force in the First Quarter 2009. Although it is important to note that not all employees working in these industries earned incomes which were equal to or less than the average monthly income. Single person wage earners employed in educational services, as well as accommodations and food services, face a greater affordability challenge. The average wage in these industries can only afford the rental of a mobile home lot. Efforts of the Private Sector to Provide More Affordable Housing Beyond the data, local real estate developers, contractors, real estate brokers, and bankers already recognize the need for more affordable housing in Park County. Available home inventories already include attached single-family homes and condominiums that are priced significantly less than average home prices in both Cody and Powell. But, somewhat surprisingly, real estate developers and real estate brokers reported that the market has not yet responded strongly to these more affordable home opportunities (Bryan, 2010; Thiel, 2010; and Donley, 2010). The lack of response to the opportunities for more affordable housing is likely due to recent economic downturn and related consumer uncertainties that have slowed consumer motivations for home purchases.
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Page 6-5
Despite the slowdown in home sales in 2009, there is a need for more affordable types of housing that can be purchased by a larger proportion of the potential home sales market. For example, Jerry Thiel and Sons Construction, Inc. in Cody recently completed the Heart Mountain Condominium complex in Cody, which contains 12 attractive two-bedroom, twobath units. In April 2010, prices for these condominium units ranged from approximately $125,800 for a third floor condo to about $129,800 for a ground floor unit. The purchase of a $130,000 condo would require a buyer to have an income of, at least, $3,268 per month (Table 5-1). This income level is approximately 11 percent higher than Park County’s average monthly wage of $2,936 in First Quarter 2009.
Heart Mountain Condominiums, two separate kitchen views
The inventory of homes in any real estate market needs to include, in part, a proportion of homes that the average working person can afford. The average monthly wage in the local economy represents a reasonable target for the price of an affordable home purchase. This target can be used by real estate developers and building contractors for the planning of future housing projects. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity and Opportunities for Development of More Self-Help Housing Lower income households in Park County also have the opportunity to pursue the development of a new home via a self-help housing program that is offered by Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity. In the past three years, this program has completed two to three self-help housing projects per year with volunteer crews (Lee, 2010). Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity already has about 30 local organizations supporting their construction efforts. About 500 people have volunteered in the past two years. Applicants to the program must, in part, demonstrate a need, e.g., homelessness or overcrowding in the applicant’s present home. They must live and work in Park County Park County Housing Assessment
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for, at least, six months, be willing to participate in home construction, and have the ability to pay for a new home (Lee, 2010). For example, single-family homes recently completed by Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity are 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath homes containing about 1,050 square feet of floor space. Applicants must be capable of paying 30-year amortization payments for a loan of approximately $100,000 at 0 percent interest, or a monthly payment of about $450 which includes principal, interest, taxes, and insurance. This approach essentially forgives the second mortgage debt over the life of the first mortgage. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity establishes a second mortgage on the property and defers these payments unless the homeowner does not remain in the home. The household income of each applicant must range between 20 and 60 percent of the median income in Park County (Lee, 2010). The median family income for Park County in FY 2009 was $57,900 (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010). Mountain Spirit Subdivision in Cody contains 26 lots. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity has 18 lots left to build on. But, the program needs to construct additional infrastructure and extend New Hope Drive to support the construction of new homes in the subdivision. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity plans to apply for a federal infrastructure grant to complete these improvements. Infrastructure improvement costs are estimated to be around $250,000. Because of Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity’s experience with self-help housing in Park County, this organization is a logical entity to help package, supervise, and promote construction loans for the U.S. Department of Agriculture Section 502 and 523 Mutual SelfHelp Housing Programs. Under the 523 program, low-income borrowers typically work together under the guidance of a nonprofit public housing entity, e.g., Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity, to build each others’ homes. Under the guidance of an onsite construction supervisor, home building groups perform at least 65 percent of the construction work required to build their homes. In most cases, the grantee also manages the construction loans, develops the building site, provides homeownership training, offers building plans, qualifies the borrower for his/her mortgage and markets the program in the service area (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development Program, 2010). Under USDA’s 502 Mutual Self-Help Housing Loan program, applicants desiring to participate in a self-help housing project must have very low or low incomes as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. As stated earlier, very low income is defined as below 50 percent of the area median income. Low income is between 50 and 80 percent of the area median income. In addition, families applying for these loans must be without adequate housing, able to afford monthly mortgage payments, and unable to obtain financing from other sources. Opportunities for the Redevelopment of Some Mobile Home Rental Areas Some of the mobile home rental areas in Cody and Powell contain older mobile homes that need replacement due to age and/or deterioration. In Cody, for example, there are several mobile home areas that range between two and eight acres in size (Figure 6-1). Given the lack of affordable housing for lower income households, there is a need to Park County Housing Assessment
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© £ ¤ 14
120 U V
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 16
£ ¤
£ ¤
20
14
Legend 8 Acres or More 2 to 8 Acres 1 to 2 Acres 1 Acre or Less 120 Railroad US Highway State Highway Municipal Street and Road Cody Municipal Boundary
V U
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Potential Mobile Home Redevelopment Areas Cody, Wyoming
Figure 6-1
improve and redevelop selected mobile home rental areas to sustain and expand rental housing opportunities. Since the occupancy of these areas remains high, there is little motivation for owners to consider the replacement of existing, older mobile homes. Owners of mobile home rental areas need to be provided with some incentives to pursue the redevelopment of their rental housing areas with new rental housing. At the present time, the potential redevelopment of some mobile home rental areas is more complex since any redevelopment project would involve changes in municipal zoning and revisions to existing subdivisions. Such projects may need to be reviewed as part of a planned unit development process and a simplified subdivision approval process to encourage future private investment. 6.4.2 Strategies Objective 3: Encourage Development of More Affordable Housing Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 3A: Identify concentrated mobile home rental housing areas in Cody and Powell. Informally discuss potential incentives with landowners of selected mobile home rental housing areas. Subsequently, prepare a set of incentives for consideration by the City of Cody and City of Powell that attempt to encourage the replacement of older mobile home rentals with the development of new residential apartments, the installation of new manufactured homes, and/or the construction of new self-help housing. Relaxed subdivision requirements and revised zoning ordinance provisions should be incorporated into the incentives to facilitate the process for project approvals. Responsibility for Implementation: Cody City Council and Planning and Zoning Commission; Powell City Council and Planning and Zoning Commission; Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity Task 3B: Seek opportunities for participation in the U.S. Department of Agriculture Section 502 and 523 Mutual Self-Help Housing Programs and establish Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity as a local grantee for Park County, the City of Cody and the City of Powell. Clarify and discuss program responsibilities and opportunities with representatives of USDA, Rural Development and Rural Community Assistance Corporation which provides technical assistance to program grantees in the western United States. Responsibility for Implementation: City Council; Powell City Council
Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity; Cody
Task 3C: Prepare and sponsor infrastructure grant requests for the construction of additional infrastructure and the extension of New Hope Drive in the Mountain Spirit Subdivision.
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Final – July 6, 2010
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Responsibility for Implementation: Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity; Cody City Council 6.5
SENIOR HOUSING
6.5.1 Conclusions During the next decade, anticipated demands for senior housing appear to be met if the present rates of demand for independent living, assisted living and long term care continue. However, should demands begin to exceed the capacity of existing senior housing and care facilities, potential investors should be encouraged to develop a new senior housing complex that offers a combination of independent, assisted living, and long term care. 6.5.2 Strategies Objective 4: Encourage Future Private Investments For Senior Housing. Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 4A: Monitor senior independent living, assisted living, and long term care facilities on an annual basis. Compare senior housing occupancies with the capacities available at each facility in Powell and Cody. In the event that facility capacities demonstrate saturation, potential investors should be encouraged to develop a new senior housing complex in either Cody or Powell where supporting medical services are readily available and accessible. Responsibility for Implementation: Forward Cody 6.6 6.6.1
STUDENT HOUSING AT NORTHWEST COLLEGE Conclusions
In 2010, fall enrollment at Northwest College included about 1,100 full-time and 800+ part-time students. Northwest College presently accommodates over 50 percent of its total enrollment in on-campus student housing. In both 2008 and 2009, all student housing was leased during the fall semester, but occupancy declined to 75-80 percent in the spring semester. In 2007, student housing occupancy was about 95 percent of total facility capacity. Between 2010 and 2020, it is anticipated that Powell’s rental housing market will include a demand for an additional 398 housing units (Table 4-6). Students residing in Northwest College dormitories and privately owned single-family homes and apartments are expected Park County Housing Assessment
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to capture roughly 75 percent of Powell’s rental housing market. Retirees and lower income residents will probably represent the remaining rental housing market. Northwest College envisions no new campus housing projects at this time. However, some consideration is being given to the potential doubling of some existing housing facilities (Havig, 2010). But, in the face of rising student enrollments, it is likely that Northwest College will need to give serious consideration to the expansion of on-campus student housing during the coming decade. Bridger Hall, a former student housing facility at Northwest College, was lost to fire a few years ago. This site remains vacant and could accommodate a new dorm facility. Instead of attempting to raise capital for new construction via bonds or other financial instruments, Northwest College could privatize future student housing by providing a site for a new dormitory or other type of housing facility to private residential developers. Residential developers would obtain financing for the construction of a new student housing facility, as well as manage the student housing for Northwest College on a contractual basis. This is an option increasingly used by many colleges and universities in the United States. 6.6.2 Strategies Objective 5: Privatize Future Student Housing Facilities at Northwest College Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 5A: Continue to monitor student enrollment trends and the future demand for student housing at Northwest College. When anticipated enrollments begin to suggest the need for additional student housing, prepare a request for proposals to local and regional student housing developers for the financing, construction, operation and maintenance of new student housing facility on the Northwest College campus. Negotiate contractual terms and conditions for facility development, management, operation and maintenance with the selected student housing developer. Monitor and inspect construction work completed. Responsibility for Implementation: Northwest College Registrar’s Office, Director of Residence and Campus Life, and Board of Trustees 6.7
LAND USE REGULATIONS AND COMMUNITY GROWTH POLICIES
6.7.1 Conclusions The regulation of residential development projects is an important tool to help ensure that future residential development maintains public health and safety, and provides a quality living environment. It is equally essential that land use regulations are reasonable and cost-effective to construct, and, ultimately do not discourage private investment. In the absence of balanced land management, limited new residential construction can increase the cost of existing housing as available inventory decreases. Park County Housing Assessment
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Page 6-11
Most local real estate developers in any community are more than cognizant of potential areas for future residential expansion, as well as the preferences of local government concerning where future land use expansion should take place. But local government should not assume that all real estate developers are aware of the preferences and plans of local government and the status of planned infrastructure improvements. Consequently, these issues and potential development opportunities should be openly shared to encourage the future development of housing. Zoning and subdivision regulations occasionally pose an unnecessary constraint to investments by real estate developers. The concerns of real estate developers need to be heard and discussed informally with municipal governmental officials to clarify the planning objectives of local government, discuss potential regulatory options, and provide expanded opportunities for housing development. To help heal past disagreements and encourage the investment of local real estate developers in future residential development projects, planning, public works, and building officials from the City of Cody, City of Powell, Town of Meeteetse, and Park County need to work more closely with local real estate developers and eliminate adversarial or strained relationships. Local government needs to more constructively share and communicate with real estate developers the preferences of local government concerning the type and location of future residential expansion. Planning, public works and building officials should also review existing zoning and subdivision regulations with local real estate developers to identify potential revisions that might facilitate more cost-effective development and enable more residential development options without sacrificing the safety, quality, and market appeal of future residential developments. In turn, real estate developers and contractors need to share cost realities associated with their compliance with existing regulations and point out constructive alternatives for accomplishing desired design and construction objectives. 6.7.2 Strategies Objective 6: Remove Unnecessary Regulatory Barriers to Future Real Estate Development Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 6A: Organize and hold a series of meetings between municipal planning, public works, and building officials, and local real estate developers. Separate meetings will be organized for the City of Cody and the City of Powell. Municipal planning and public works officials for the City of Cody and City of Powell will identify preferred areas for future land use expansion, as well as the type of land use expansion envisioned for planned expansion areas. Government officials will also identify planned road, water and sewer improvements envisioned to support future land use expansion and the present schedule for planned improvements. Park County Housing Assessment
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A second phase of the meetings in each community will focus upon the improvement of both zoning and subdivision regulations. Real estate developers and governmental officials will bring desired changes to local zoning ordinances and subdivision regulations for discussion. Revisions will consider, in part, how to make present regulations more cost effective to help reduce the cost of subdivision development without compromising the safety, quality and market appeal of subdivisions. Ultimately, meeting participants will seek consensus on desired revisions and subsequently present the recommended revisions to municipal planning and zoning commissions and city councils for their consideration. Responsibility for Implementation: Forward Cody, City of Cody Public Works Director, City of Cody Planner (when this position is filled), City of Powell Engineer, City of Powell Building Inspector and local real estate developers. Task 6B: Zoning regulations adopted by the City of Powell should incorporate a new mixed residential commercial and residential zoning district that would be applicable to Powell’s downtown area. Under this potential zoning district, landowners would be provided with the opportunity to develop residential housing on the second floor of commercial buildings in its downtown area. This would enable landowners to potentially derive additional income from a small upstairs apartment, as well as ground floor retail. In other situations, an upstairs apartment might also provide housing for lessees or employees of ground floor commercial uses. Ultimately, the incorporation of upstairs housing would help keep commercial investments in the downtown area more financially viable for landowners. Responsibility for Implementation: City of Powell Public Works Director, City of Powell Building Inspector and Powell City Council. 6.8
ADVOCACY OF COMMUNITY HOUSING ISSUES AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
6.8.1
6.8.1.1
Conclusions
Need for a Community Housing Advocate
Future housing needs can, for the most part, be addressed by the constructive efforts of real estate brokers selling existing homes, real estate developers developing new residential subdivisions, contractors building new homes, and local banks financing construction loans for real estate developers and contractors, as well as loans for new home mortgages. But, there are often issues, e.g., land use regulations, that constrain investments that cannot be resolved by actions the local housing industry. The development of affordable housing in Park County is an important issue as a significant proportion of the employed workforce is unable to purchase housing. And in some cases, persons in employed in some industries are hard pressed to locate affordable rental housing. Partnerships of the private sector and public agencies can be used effectively to stimulate private investments for the development of more affordable housing. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 6-13
The establishment of a local housing advocate agency, or community development authority, is needed to spearhead efforts of local government and the private sector to maintain an awareness of housing issues, keep abreast of housing demands, identify potential housing development opportunities, and facilitate the resolution of potential constraints to residential development. If federal funds are eventually sought to support future housing initiatives, federal agencies such as the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, desire local government to have a non-profit or public agency whose focus is, in part, upon the development of housing.
6.8.1.2
Maintaining Awareness of Housing Issues and Opportunities
As community housing assessments are completed, it is tempting to assume that forecasts of anticipated housing demands will remain close to the original forecasts. But many everchanging factors continually influence the demand for housing. For this reason, it is important that relevant data is collected and analyzed, and quantifiable housing demand forecasts are periodically revised. Important information to monitor includes, at least, the following: • • • • • •
Annual housing sales and price trends. Available rental housing and related rental housing costs. The number of annual building permits for new residential construction in Cody, Powell, Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County. Household income and industry employment data. Anticipated new jobs and jobs lost in the Park County economy. Location of all housing units in Park County.
Relevant information that is presently compiled by several public agencies and non-profit organizations should be collected and reviewed on an annual basis. For example, annual housing sales data is already collected by the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors. Rental housing cost trends are periodically obtained by Western Economic Services for the Wyoming Housing Data Partnership. Building permit data is already documented by the City of Cody Building Official and the City of Powell Building Inspector. Forward Cody regularly tracks the number of potential new jobs that may be established by existing businesses in Park County and investors considering potential business relocations. Pedersen Planning Consultants completed the December 2009 housing inventory for the Park County Assessment. The type and location of all housing in Cody, Powell and Meeteetse was mapped using ArcGIS software. This information should be regularly updated by municipal and county public works departments as authorized new homes are completed. This database would ideally be expanded to include all housing within the unincorporated area of Park County. The annual collection and evaluation of relevant housing information should be used to revise earlier assumptions associated with the Park County housing demand model and update housing demand forecasts. Subsequently, new information should be shared with local appraisers, real estate developers, real estate brokers, building contractors, as well as municipal and county government officials. Even though home financing, housing Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 6-14
development, and home sales are competitive in nature, it is important that the local housing industry in Park County has a more comprehensive understanding of local housing needs and potential development opportunities. Using this approach, the community can move forward to address future housing needs in a more timely, cooperative, and costeffective manner. 6.8.2
Strategies
Objective 7: Establish a Community Housing Advocate Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 7A: Establish and organize a community housing agency, which operates either as a non-profit organization or a joint powers board, to spearhead housing initiatives in Park County, as well as the City of Cody, City of Powell, and Town of Meeteetse. Responsibility for Implementation: Park County Board of Commissioners, Cody City Council, Powell City Council, and Meeteetse Town Council Objective 8: Remain Aware of Housing Trends, Demands, and Opportunities Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 8A: Compile relevant housing data on an annual basis. Obtain available data from, at least, Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors, City of Cody Building Official and Director of Public Works, City of Powell Building Inspector and Director of Public Works, American West Realty; and Wyoming Community Development Authority. Use available data to update assumptions associated with the Park County housing demand model and prepare revised housing demand forecasts. Share revised housing demand forecasts with local residential mortgage lenders, appraisers, real estate brokers, and real estate developers to encourage future housing development. Update housing inventory data files developed by Pedersen Planning Consultants for Cody, Powell and Meeteetse using ArcGIS software and available building permit records. Inventory housing in the unincorporated area of Park County and expand database. Monitor the location and number of available residential lots in existing subdivisions that could be developed for new housing. Update the Park County Assessment every three years. Share and discuss housing development trends, constraints and opportunities with representatives of local home mortgage lenders, real estate brokers, appraisers, and real estate developers. Responsibility for Implementation: New Community Housing Authority in cooperation with the City of Powell Building Inspector, Meeteetse Town Clerk, Park County Planning and Zoning Department, City of Cody Building Official, and Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 6-15
APPENDIX A
MATRIX EVALUATION SHEET AND PROCESS TO DETERMINE PRIORITY OF RECOMMENDED HOUSING OBJECTIVES
Process to Determine Priority of Recommended Housing Objectives As discussed in Chapter Six, it is important that priorities be established for the implementation of the recommended housing objectives and related strategies that are presented in Chapter Six. The Park County Housing Committee is a logical group to determine priorities for the future implementation of recommended housing strategies in light of its diversified professional experience in the housing industry, as well as its participation in the Park County Housing Assessment project. The following matrix evaluation sheet is a planning tool that can be used to determine the priority for implementation of each of the recommended housing objectives. To accomplish this, PPC recommends that each Housing Committee member individually rate the importance of each of the housing objectives without prior discussion. This approach enables Committee members to determine a consensus without going through an endless discussion of each housing objective. Each member will be provided with a copy of the matrix evaluation sheet to numerically rate the importance of each housing objective. Each member will assign their numerical scores without discussion with other members of the Housing Committee. Each housing objective will be assigned a score ranging between 0 and 10. A score of 1 suggests a very low priority; conversely, a score of 10 would indicate a very high priority. After all of the matrix evaluation sheets are completed and returned to Forward Cody, cumulative scores will be calculated for each objective. The cumulative score for each objective will be divided by number of persons rating the housing objectives to determine an average score of the Housing Committee. Higher scored planning objectives will indicate greater priority; conversely, lower scored objectives will indicate a lower priority. This convenient process will enable the Housing Committee to establish its own priorities for the implementation of all housing strategies. With the identification of overall priorities, the Housing Committee can use the priority rankings as a basis for determining a more specific schedule for the completion of the strategies and related tasks associated with each housing objective.
MATRIX EVALUATION SCORE SHEET PRIORITY RANKING OF HOUSING OBJECTIVES PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT JULY 2010 Objective No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Housing Objective
Encourage real estate developes to invest in future residential development projects Expand residential expansion opportunities in Meeteetse Encourage development of more affordable housing Encourage future private investments for senior housing Privatize future student housing facilities at Northwest College Remove unnecessary regulatory barriers to future real estate development Establish a Community Housing Advocate Remain aware of housing trends, demands, and opportunities
Score (1 low, 10 high)
PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT
Buffalo Bill Cody Historical Home
July 6, 2010
July 6, 2010 FINAL
PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT Prepared for:
Forward Cody Wyoming, Inc. 1131 13th Street #106 Cody, WY 82414 307-587-3136
Prepared by:
Pedersen Planning Consultants
P. O. Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Tel: 307-327-5434 Email: [email protected] Website: www.pedersenplanning.com
PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT Final Report – July 6, 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter
Title
ONE 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4.1 1.4.2
INTRODUCTION PURPOSE SCOPE REPORT ORGANIZATION CONSULTATION Park County Housing Committee Other Sources of Information
1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-4 1-4 1-4
TWO 2.1 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.2 2.3 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.3.4 2.4 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS RECENT POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION Resident Population in April 2000 Recent Population Growth AGE CHARACTERISTICS FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS Number of Households Family Households Non-Family Households Average Household and Family Size WORKFORCE TRENDS Employed Workforce Unemployment Primary Sources of Employment
2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-3 2-3 2-3 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-5
2.5 2.5.1 2.5.2 2.5.3 2.5.4 2.5.5 2.6 2.6.1 2.6.2 2.6.3 2.7 2.7.1
INDUSTRY TRENDS Government Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Services Educational Services INCOME General Private Sector Public Sector FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH Alternate Approaches Used to Calculate Future Growth
2-7 2-7 2-8 2-10 2-10 2-11 2-11 2-11 2-13 2-13 2-13 2-13
2.4.3.1 2.4.3.2 2.4.3.3 2.4.3.4
Page No.
Government Retail Trade Accommodations and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Services
-i-
2-5 2-5 2-7 2-7
Chapter
Title
Page No.
2.7.1.1 2.7.1.2 2.7.1.3
Time Series Analysis Cohort Survival Method Employment-Based Analysis
2-14 2-14 2-14
2.7.2
Population Forecast
How Future Growth Was Calculated Anticipated Population Growth
2-15 2-15
THREE 3.1 3.2 3.2.1
COMMUNITY HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS INTRODUCTION SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF AVAILABLE HOUSING City of Cody
3-1 3-1 3-1 3-2
3.2.2
City of Powell
3-8
3.2.3
Town of Meeteetse
3-13
3.3 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.2.1 3.4.2.2 3.4.3
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS Types of Households Household Size Home Occupancy COST AND AVAILABILITY OF HOUSING Introduction Cody Residential Property Trends within the City of Cody Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Cody Powell
3-15 3-15 3-15 3-15 3-16 3-16 3-16 3-16 3-18 3-20
3.4.4
Town of Meeteetse
3.5 3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3
AVAILABILITY AND COST OF RENTAL HOUSING Size of Available Rental Inventory Cost of Rental Housing Rental Housing Market Trends
2.7.2.1 27.2.2.
3.2.1.1 3.2.1.2 3.2.1.3 3.2.1.4 3.2.1.5 3.2.2.1 3.2.2.2 3.2.2.3 3.2.2.4 3.2.2.5 3.2.3.1 3.2.3.2 3.2.3.3 3.2.3.4 3.2.3.5
3.4.3.1 3.4.3.2 3.4.4.1 3.4.4.2
Single-Family Homes Townhomes/Duplexes Residential Apartments Mobile Homes Recreational Vehicles Single-Family Homes Townhomes/Duplexes Residential Apartments Mobile Homes Recreational Vehicles
2-15
3-2 3-5 3-5 3-5 3-8
3-8 3-12 3-12 3-12 3-13
Single-Family Homes Townhomes/Duplexes Residential Apartments Mobile Homes Recreational Vehicles
3-13 3-13 3-13 3-13 3-15
Residential Property Trends in the City of Powell Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Powell
3-20 3-21
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Available Inventory
3-23 3-25
- ii -
3-23
3-25 3-25 3-25 3-26
Chapter
Title
FOUR 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3.1
HOUSING DEMANDS AND OTHER HOUSING NEEDS INTRODUCTION HOUSING DEMAND MODEL AND RELATED ASSUMPTIONS HOME SALES MARKET Housing Preferences
4-1 4-1 4-1 4-2 4-2
4.3.2
Demand for Home Purchase
4-2
RENTAL MARKET Market Preferences
4-7 4-7
4.3.1.1 4.3.1.2 4.3.1.3
Page No.
Detached Single-Family Homes Attached Single-Family Homes Mobile Homes
4.3.2.1 4.3.2.2 4.3.2.3 4.3.2.4
City of Cody City of Powell Town of Meeteetse Unincorporated Area of Park County
4.4.1.1 4.4.1.2 4.4.1.3
Single-Family Homes Apartments Mobile Homes
4.4 4.4.1
4.4.2
4-2 4-2 4-2
4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-8
Demand for Rental Housing
4-8
4.4.2.1 4.4.2.2 4.4.2.3 4.4.2.4
Cody Powell Meeteetse Unincorporated Area of Park County
4-8 4-9 4-9 4-10
4.5.2.1 4.5.2.2
Cody Powell
4-12 4-12
4.5 4.5.1 4.5.2
SENIOR HOUSING Potential Market Available Senior Housing Facilities
4-11 4-11 4-11
4.5.3
Senior Housing Demand
4.5.4 4.6 4.6.1 4.6.2 4.6.3 4.6.4
Senior Housing Needs HOUSING NEEDS FOR LOWER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS General Home Sales Market Rental Housing Demand Housing Needs for Lower Income Households
4-15 4-16 4-16 4-16 4-17 4-18
FIVE 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.3.3
RESIDENTIAL LENDING POLICIES AND HOME AFFORDABILITY INTRODUCTION SOURCES OF HOME FINANCING IN PARK COUNTY RESIDENTIAL LOAN POLICIES General Debt Ratios Credit Scores
5-1 5-1 5-1 5-2 5-2 5-2 5-2
4.5.3.1 4.5.3.2 4.5.3.3 4.5.3.4
4-13
Seniors Requiring No Care Independent Living Assisted Living Long Term Care
-iii-
4-13 4-14 4-14 4-15
Chapter
Title
5.3.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6.1 5.6.2
Interest Rates FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS BRIDGE LOANS AFFORDABILITY OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY Affordability of Home Purchases Affordability of Rental Housing
5-2 5-2 5-3 5-3 5-3 5-5
SIX 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.4 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.5 6.5.1 6.5.2 6.6 6.6.1 6.6.2 6.7 6.7.1 6.7.2 6.8
CONCLUSIONS AND HOUSING STRATEGIES INTRODUCTION FUTURE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT STRATEGIES DEMAND FOR HOUSING Conclusions Strategies AFFORDABLE HOUSING Conclusions Strategies SENIOR HOUSING Conclusions Strategies STUDENT HOUSING AT NORTHWEST COLLEGE Conclusions Strategies LAND USE REGULATIONS AND COMMUNITY GROWTH POLICIES Conclusions Strategies ADVOCACY OF COMMUNITY HOUSING ISSUES AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Conclusions
6-1 6-1 6-1 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-9 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-10 6-11 6-11 6-11 6-12
Strategies
6-15
6.8.1
6.8.1.1 6.8.1.2 6.8.2
Page No.
Need for a Community Housing Advocate Maintaining Awareness of Housing Issues and Opportunities
REFERENCES APPENDIX A
MATRIX EVALUATION SHEET AND PROCESS TO DETERMINE PRIORITY OF RECOMMENDED HOUSING OBJECTIVES
- iv -
6-13 6-13
6-13 6-14
LIST OF FIGURES Figure No.
Title
Page No.
1-1
Regional Location, Park County, Wyoming
1-2
2-1
Unemployment Trends in Park County January 2003 through December 2008
2-4
3-1
Wards 1-3, City of Cody
3-3
3-2
Residential Housing, Ward 1, City of Cody, December 2009
3-4
3-3
Residential Housing, Ward 2, City of Cody, December 2009
3-6
3-4
Residential Housing, Ward 3, City of Cody, December 2009
3-7
3-5
Wards 1-3, City of Powell
3-9
3-6
Residential Housing, Wards 1 and 3, City of Powell, December 2009
3-10
3-7
Residential Housing, Ward 2, City of Powell, December 2009
3-11
3-8
Residential Housing, Town of Meeteetse, December 2009
3-14
6-1
Potential Mobile Home Redevelopment Areas, Cody, Wyoming
6-8
-v-
LIST OF TABLES Table No.
Title
Page No.
2-1
Population Distribution Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
2-1
Population Growth Park County, Wyoming, May 2000 Through December 2008
2-1
Population by Selected Age Groups Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
2-2
Community Age Distribution, Selected Age Groups Within Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
2-3
Covered Average Monthly Employment in Park County By NAICS Industries First Quarter 2005 Through First Quarter 2009
2-6
Retail Sales Trends Park County, Wyoming, FY 2005 Through FY 2009
2-8
Retail Leakage by Merchandise Group Park County, Wyoming, 2009
2-9
Accommodation and Food Service Sales Park County, Wyoming, 2005 to 2009
2-10
Average Monthly Income Per Job in Park County Industries First Quarter 2009
2-12
Anticipated Population Growth Park County, Wyoming, 2010-2020
2-15
Type of Housing Park County, Wyoming, April 2000
3-1
Type and Distribution of Housing in Cody, Powell, and Meeteetse December 2009
3-2
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Cody, Wyoming, 2007-2009
3-17
Available Residential Units Cody, Wyoming, April 2010
3-17
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Vicinity of Cody, 2007-2009
3-18
Available Residential Units Vicinity of Cody, April 2010
3-19
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Powell, Wyoming, 2007-2009
3-20
Available Residential Units City of Powell, Wyoming, April 2010
3-21
2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5
2-6 2-7 2-8 2-9 2-10 3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-7 3-8
- vi -
Table No.
Title
Page No.
3-9
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Vicinity of Powell, 2007-2009
3-22
Available Residential Units Vicinity of Powell, April 2010
3-23
Sales of Improved Residential Property and Residential Lots Town of Meeteetse, Wyoming, 2007-2009
3-23
Available Residential Units Town of Meeteetse, April 2010
3-25
Average Rental Housing Costs in Park County Second Quarter 2000 Through Second Quarter 2009
3-26
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand City of Cody, 2010-2020
4-4
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand City of Powell, 2010-2020
4-5
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand Town of Meeteetse, 2010-2020
4-6
Anticipated Home Sales Market Demand Unincorporated Park County, 2010-2020
4-7
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand City of Cody, 2010-2020
4-8
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand City of Powell, 2010-2020
4-9
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand Town of Meeteetse, 2010-2020
4-10
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand Unincorporated Park County, 2010-2020
4-10
Senior Housing Demands Park County, 2010-2020
4-14
Anticipated Sales Market Demand By Family Income Ranges, 2010-2020
4-17
Anticipated Rental Housing Demand By Family Income Ranges, 2010-2020
4-18
Income and Debt Levels Desired by Financial Institutions For Conventional Residential Loans
5-4
Affordability of Rental Housing to the Employed Workforce First Quarter 2009
5-6
Cumulative Housing Demands for Park County 2010-2020
6-2
3-10 3-11 3-12 3-13 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-9 4-10 4-11 5-1 5-2 6-1
-vii-
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1
PURPOSE
The intent of the Park County Housing Assessment is to provide insights concerning the availability of housing in the City of Cody, City of Powell, Town of Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County (Figure 1-1); determine potential housing needs in these areas; identify potential housing development opportunities; and outline strategies that can address anticipated housing demands and housing needs. It is envisioned that this information will be of particular interest to elected and community leaders, small business owners, other Park County residents, local and regional lending institutions, local utilities, residential housing developers, real estate developers, real estate brokers, and potential investors seeking to establish or relocate businesses in Park County. 1.2
SCOPE
The preparation of the Housing Assessment involved the completion of several tasks. These tasks generally included the following: • • • • • • • 1.3
Examine demographic and economic trends that are expected to influence the availability and development of housing in Park County. Inventory the type, location and characteristics of improved residential properties. Review and evaluate recent sales trends associated with housing markets in Cody, Powell, Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County. Forecast the type and amount of housing demand between 2010 and 2020. Assess the affordability of housing. Identify and evaluate future housing needs and potential opportunities for future residential development. Outline strategies that address anticipated housing demands and needs to the year 2020. REPORT ORGANIZATION
The Park County Housing Assessment report comprises several chapters. The general scope of each chapter, as well as the approach used to complete related tasks, are described in the following paragraphs. Chapter One presents the purpose and scope of the Park County Housing Assessment, as well as the general content of each chapter within the report. Pedersen Planning Consultants (PPC) also identified those individuals, agencies, and organizations that were consulted during completion of the Housing Assessment.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-1
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Frannie
£ ¤ 212
296 U V
£ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 16
20
£ ¤ 20
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V U 292 U V 294 U V 120 V U 120 V U 297
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£ ¤ 14
Deaver
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Cowley Lovell Byron
114
Powell
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295 U V
Cody 291 U V
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Burlington
14
30 U V
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Meeteetse 290 V U
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120 U V
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Teton County 174 170 V U V U
£ ¤ £ ¤ 26
Hot Springs County
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22 U V
390 V U
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Jackson Rafter J Ranch CDP
Fremont County
Thayne
Lincoln County
Alpine
£ ¤
Fort Washakie CDP
£ ¤
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Riverton Ethete CDP Arapahoe CDP
287
Pinedale
Hudson Lander
353 V U
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
352 V U
Sublette County
238 U V Afton 241 V U
134 V U
133 U V 132 V U
189
354 V U 191 £ ¤
Pavillion
131 U V 789 V U
£ ¤ 789
Regional Location Park County, WY
Figure 1-1
Chapter Two provides an overview of selected demographic and economic trends for Park County, as well as the City of Cody, City of Powell, and the Town of Meeteetse. These trends largely focused upon recent changes in population growth. The examination of economic trends considered sources of employment in the Park County economy, recent changes in the rate of unemployment, the growth associated with the primary industries in Park County, and potential sources of new employment in the coming decade. Based upon the evaluation of future employment opportunities in Park County, an employment-based population forecast to the year 2020 was developed for Park County and its three municipalities. The assessment of future employment opportunities relied, in part, upon data obtained from a survey of primary employers in Park County that was prepared by Pedersen Planning Consultants and distributed by Forward Cody in early 2010. The type and location of existing housing is presented and evaluated in Chapter Three. General community housing characteristics such as the type and amount of housing, home ownership and home occupancy, and home vacancy are presented on a community-wide basis. These characteristics and related trends were determined through a review of available data from the 2000 Census and the December 2009 housing inventory. Chapter Three also provides an overview of recent market trends associated with the sale of improved and unimproved residential properties in Park County. This assessment is based upon a review of sales data for 2007, 2008 and 2009 that was furnished by the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Chapter Four presents a forecast of future housing demand for Park County and its three municipalities. Pedersen Planning Consultants developed and applied a statistical model to determine overall market demands for single family multi-family housing. The statistical model incorporated the forecast of the anticipated resident population during the next decade, as well as consideration of the potential absorption of future housing inventories. The model also included other assumptions regarding housing market preferences of the regional housing market that reflected the insights of local financial institutions and selected real estate brokers. Anticipated housing demands for those persons seeking assisted-living and long term care were calculated independent of market-driven housing. These housing demands are generated by persons outside of employed labor force. Representatives from the senior housing industry were consulted to help determine reasonable assumptions concerning the demand for assisted-living and nursing home care. Chapter Five provides a general overview of local lending policies that influence the financing and purchase of residential property. These factors are used to estimate monthly income levels that are required for potential home purchases. Subsequently, Chapter Five considers the affordability of homes available for purchase and rent. Average home purchase prices and home rental rates in 2009 are correlated with average salary/wage levels of employees working in various industries in the Park County economy. Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-3
Chapter Six includes a series of overall conclusions and strategies that are based upon the information and previous analyses presented in Chapters Two through Five. The strategies seek to address the efforts of the private sector and non-profit organizations to meet anticipated housing needs generated from anticipated community growth, identify potential development opportunities, and encourage reasonable investments in future residential development. 1.4
CONSULTATION
1.4.1 Park County Housing Committee Preparation of the Park County Housing Assessment was guided by James Klessens, Executive Director of Forward Cody. He organized a project advisory group called the Park County Housing Committee in order that the housing assessment would reflect the insights of various companies and agencies associated with the marketing, development and financing of housing in Park County. Pedersen Planning Consultants consulted with members of the Park County Housing Committee both individually and collectively to gain their insights concerning a range of housing issues. The Park County Housing Committee ultimately made a critical review of recommended housing strategies that led to a substantive refinement of housing strategies. Kim Borer, Wells Fargo Mortgage, Cody, Wyoming Jan Brenner, Prudential Brokerage West, Cody, Wyoming Heather Christensey, Envisioneering, LLC, Cody, Wyoming Theresa Donley, Broker, The Donley Team, Cody, Wyoming James Klessens, CEO, Forward Cody, Cody, Wyoming Kenny Lee, Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity, Cody, Wyoming Tanya Lowham, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Cody, Wyoming William Petersen, Building Inspector, City of Powell, Powell, Wyoming Sandy Shearer, Prudential Brokerage West, Cody, Wyoming Mark Westerhold, Pinnacle Bank, Cody, Wyoming Andy Whiteman, City Administrator, City of Cody, Cody, Wyoming Jim Yockey, Councilman, Town of Meeteetse 1.4.2 Other Sources of Information Representatives of other small businesses, public agencies and non-profit organizations were also contacted during the course of the Housing Assessment process. These representatives included the following:
Financial Institutions Martha Bunn, Mortgage Lender, First National Bank and Trust Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-4
Northwest College, Powell, Wyoming Dee Havig, Director, Director of Residence and Campus Life, Powell, Wyoming
Oil and Gas Industry Matthew Vezza, Wyoming Asset Team Manager, Wyoming Operations, Marathon Oil Company, Cody, Wyoming
Real Estate Brokers and Appraisers Karl Butler, Broker, Prudential Brokerage West, Cody, Wyoming Day Drury, Broker, American West Realty, Cody, Wyoming Theresa Donley, Broker, The Donley Team, Cody, Wyoming Jake Fulkerson, Certified General Appraiser, QM Appraisal, Cody, Wyoming Wendy Evarts, Associate Broker, Peak to Prairie Realty, Cody, Wyoming Ed Higbie, Associate Broker, Western Real Estate, Cody, Wyoming Shane Shoopman, Metzler and Moore Realty, Powell, Wyoming
Real Estate Developers and Residential Contractors Hamilton Bryan, Cody, Wyoming Fred Huppert, Huppert Construction, Inc., Billings, Montana Ed Higbie, Associate Broker, Western Real Estate, Cody, Wyoming Harold Musser, Musser Bros. Auctions and Real Estate, Cody, Wyoming Jerry Thiel, Jerry Thiel and Sons, Cody, Wyoming
Senior Housing and Care Industry Janet Eldredge, Administrator, Absaroka Senior Living Community, Cody Jenny Kaiser, Administrator, West Park Long Term Care Center, Cody Diana Preuninger, Manager, Beehive Home of Cody
Public Agencies City of Cody
Stephen Payne, P.E., Public Works Director Jennifer Rosencranse, Administrative Services Director
City of Powell
Sean Christensen, P.E., City Engineer
Park County
Linda Gillette, Planning Coordinator, Planning and Zoning Department
Park County Housing Assessment
Final Report – July 6, 2010
Page 1-5
CHAPTER TWO DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS 2.1
RECENT POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION
2.1.1 Resident Population in April 2000 In April 2000, the U.S. Census Bureau documented a population of 25,786 persons in Park County (Table 2-1). Just over forty-three percent of this population resided in the unincorporated area of Park County. The remaining population lived in one of four incorporated communities which included the City of Cody (34.3 percent), the City of Powell (almost 20.8 percent), the Town of Meeteetse (1.4 percent) and the west side of the Town of Frannie (0.1 percent).
TABLE 2-1 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000
Location
Cody Frannie (western part of town) Meeteetse Powell Unincorporated Area Park County
8,838 29 351 5,373 11,195 25,786
34.3 0.1 1.4 20.8 43.4 100.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
2.1.2 Recent Population Growth Changes in resident population, or population growth, reflect natural growth (births less deaths), as well as migration. Population migration includes the number of persons that come into a community to become new residents (in-migration), as well as those persons that leave a community to become residents of another community (outmigration). Available natural growth and driver license surrender data provides some insight to more growth in resident population since the April 2000 Census. Available data suggests that the resident population of Park County has increased to, at least, 29,019 persons in 2008 (Table 2-2). However, driver license surrender data does not reflect the in and out migration of persons under 16 years of age. Consequently, the December 2008 population represents a conservative estimate. Park County Housing Assessment
Population
Proportion (%) of Total Population
TABLE 2-2 POPULATION GROWTH PARK COUNTY, WYOMING MAY 2000 THROUGH DECEMBER 2008 a)
Year
2000 b) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total
Natural Growth
45 39 29 13 23 75 85 97 87 493
Net Migration
152 209 259 329 224 330 401 485 351 2,740
Population
25,786 25,983 26,231 26,519 26,861 27,108 27,513 27,999 28,581 29,019
Notes: a) Population from April 2000 Census; b) 2000 natural growth data includes births and deaths from May through December 2000 in order to correlate the data with U.S. Census estimates of April 2000. Sources: Wyoming Department of Health, Rural and Frontier Health Division, Vital Statistics Services, 2009; Western Economic Services, LLC, 2009; Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-1
The U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, published an estimate of population in Wyoming towns and counties in July 2009. These estimates suggest a population of 27,574 residents of Park County in July 2008. This estimate suggests that the population of Park County has increased only 6.9 percent since the April 2000 Census. Since natural growth and migration are the two elements that increase or decrease a community population, an estimated resident population for Park County that is less than the number of residents reflected by available natural growth and migration information is questionable. Natural growth and migration between May 2000 and December 2008 more realistically demonstrate that the resident population of Park County grew to, at least, 29,019 persons, or almost 13 percent since the April 2000 Census. 2.2
AGE CHARACTERISTICS
While available data from the April 2000 Census is from a decade ago, it suggests an age distribution that is likely comparable to that found in 2010 (Table 2-3). In April 2000, the Park County population generally included: •
Children and younger adults ranging between 0 and 19 years of age who comprised about 28 percent of the total resident population.
•
Younger adults between 20 and 24 years of age, which generally exhibit considerable mobility as they often migrate away from the community for higher education, new jobs and places to live, or travel, included almost six percent of the resident population.
TABLE 2-3 POPULATION BY SELECTED AGE GROUPS PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000
Age Group Under 1 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over
Total
Population 7,245 1,398 10,626 6,517
25,786
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
•
The primary working age population, which generally includes persons between 25 and 54 years of age, represented approximately 10,626 residents, or about 41 percent of total resident population.
•
Residents over 55 years and older, who are nearing or in their retirement years, accounted for about 25 percent of Park County’s resident population.
The age distribution of Park County suggests that Park County residents represent a somewhat older population compared to most other Wyoming communities its size. Park County includes a higher proportion of persons nearing or in their retirement years. But within Park County, the age distribution of its three primary communities varies considerably (Table 2-4). For example, in April 2000, a much greater proportion of younger adults between 20 and 24 years of age resided in Powell where Northwest College is located. The City of Cody, the Town of Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County contained a greater proportion of residents in the working age population. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-2
Age Group Under 1 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over
TABLE 2-4 COMMUNITY AGE DISTRIBUTION SELECTED AGE GROUPS WITHIN PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000 City of City of Town of Cody Powell Meeteetse (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 27.5 28.9 26.8 4.6 10.8 3.4 41.3 33.7 41.3 26.6 26.6 28.5
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Unincorporated Area (Percent) 28.3 3.6 44.7 23.4
100.0
Notes: The age distribution of residents in the Town of Frannie is not presented since only the western part of the community is located within Park County. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
The proportion of residents nearing or in their retirement years was somewhat greater in the Town of Meeteetse. 2.3
FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
2.3.1 Number of Households In April 2000, there were 10,312 households in Park County. 2.3.2 Family Households Family households include one householder, as well as one or more persons living in the same household who are related by birth, marriage or adoption. Family households represented almost 69 percent of all households in Park County in April 2000. But only three of ten family households contained children under 18 years of age. Single mothers, with no husband present, represented seven percent of all households. Almost seven of ten of these households included children under the age of 18 years (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). 2.3.3 Non-Family Households Non-family households represent one householder living alone, or a householder living in the same home with other persons who are not related by birth, marriage or adoption. In April 2000, non-family households represented thirty-one percent of all households in Park County. Almost 84 percent of all non-family households included a householder that was living alone. Almost four of ten of these households included persons that were 65 years of age or older. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-3
2.3.4 Average Household and Family Size The average household size was 2.42 in April 2000. Family households contained a slightly higher average size of 2.92 persons per household (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). 2.4
WORKFORCE TRENDS
2.4.1 Employed Workforce In August 2008, the workforce in Park County included 15,869 residents who were 16 years of age or older. Approximately 15,440 were employed within or outside of the Park County economy. One year later, the size of the workforce declined to an estimated 15,588 persons in August 2009. The number of employed residents fell to about 14,851 persons (Wyoming Department of Employment, Research and Planning, 2009). The reduction in the size of the workforce and the number of employed residents demonstrates the influence of the ongoing national economic recession. 2.4.2 Unemployment From 2003 through 2008, the rate of employment in Park County has generally exhibited higher seasonal rates of unemployment during the first and fourth quarter of each year and lower unemployment rates during the late second and third quarters (Figure 2-1). This typical cycle reflects seasonal increases in employment that associated with retail trade, accommodations and food services, and, to a lesser extent, agriculture. FIGURE 2-1 UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN PARK COUNTY JANUARY 2003 THROUGH DECEMBER 2008
Unemployment Rate %
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-4
2.4.3 Primary Sources of Employment Park County is a service based economy. sources of employment which include: • • • •
This is evidenced, in part, by the primary
Government; Retail trade; Accommodations and food services; and, Health care and social assistance services.
On a cumulative basis, these four industries accounted for almost 62 percent of total full and part-time employment in First Quarter 2009.
2.4.3.1
Government
Available covered employment information indicates that jobs in the government sector represented approximately 26 percent of the total average monthly employment in Park County in First Quarter 2009 (Table 2-5). Local government jobs at Park County, City of Cody, City of Powell, and the Town of Meeteetse accounted for about three-fourths of government employment. Other government employment represented jobs at various federal and state agencies (Wyoming Department of Employment, Research and Planning and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009). During the past five years, government sector jobs have generally increased from about 3,000 jobs in First Quarter 2005 to over 3,400 jobs in the Second Quarter and Third Quarter 2008. More recently, the number of government jobs has declined to roughly 3,200 jobs in Third Quarter 2008 and First Quarter 2009. More recent declines probably reflect the loss of seasonal workers during the spring and summer months.
2.4.3.2
Retail Trade
In the past five years, retail trade employment has demonstrated a rather consistent cycle of higher employment during the fall, spring and summer and lower employment during the winter season. Otherwise, the number of jobs associated with retail trade has increased only slightly. Retail trade employment levels peaked with an average of over 2,400 retail trade jobs during Third Quarter 2008. Lower employment levels during the first quarter were typically closer to 1,600 jobs. For example, retail trade provided 1,629 full and part-time jobs in First Quarter 2009, or roughly 13 percent of total average monthly employment (Table 2-5). Cyclical, seasonal swings in retail trade employment in Park County demonstrate the importance of visitor expenditures to the Park County economy and the influence of those expenditures upon retail trade employment.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-5
22
23
31 - 33
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
324 10
1,480 278
53
54
55
56
61
62
71
72
81
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste Services
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
686 184 2,172
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government 2,203
199
858
3,260
281
2,218
299
1,123
7
233
342
141
400
208
246
1,896
238
580
1,086
404
336
10,135
13,395
2Q2005 AME
1,981
203
1,041
3,225
283
2,615
371
1,123
259
19
335
148
405
207
253
2,321
237
560
1,081
421
381
11,107
14,332
3Q2005 AME
2,201
196
737
3,134
284
1,573
287
1,108
11
193
335
153
395
213
253
1,818
218
550
974
423
270
9,147
12,281
4Q2005 AME
2,231
3,568
204
3,073
285
1,378
223
1,097
9
174
6
375
143
390
214
242
1,630
198
573
987
436
234
8,672
11,745
1Q2006 AME
2,231
191
651
3,242
295
2,111
296
1,150
8
224
12
386
151
394
209
276
1,931
223
590
1,142
436
332
10,242
13,484
2Q2006 AME
2,054
206
1,030
3,291
293
2,667
362
1,180
259
18
391
161
408
237
289
2,262
208
596
1,113
446
375
11,352
14,643
3Q2006 AME
2,231
194
711
3,137
276
1,607
277
1,174
196
13
377
147
403
222
259
1,807
186
583
1,016
457
280
9,369
12,506
4Q2006 AME
2,247
194
640
3,081
273
1,369
235
1,206
192
11
400
149
377
212
224
1,635
198
563
966
453
240
8,792
11,873
1Q2007 AME
2,329
205
800
3,334
287
2,190
297
1,263
239
20
413
168
379
221
234
1,949
225
548
1,099
510
319
10,445
13,779
2Q2007 AME
2,343
2,156
Park County Housing Assessment
Draft - May 15, 2010
2,364
194
629
3,187
255
1,378
242
1,289
20
202
10
427
158
390
195
229
1,683
204
497
1,082
74
526
250
9,112
12,299
1Q2008 AME
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages developed through a cooperative program between Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010.
199
706
3,247
280
1,646
286
1,289
19
217
19
409
158
388
205
240
1,813
209
500
1,081
73
530
290
9,654
12,901
4Q2007 AME
209
1,018
3,383
305
2,657
374
1,300
15
284
24
412
169
385
216
242
2,265
225
514
1,150
70
526
373
11,506
14,888
3Q2007 AME
Notes: a) Industry codes established by the North American Industry Classification System. b) Preliminary data subject to revision. AME=Average Monthly Employment
3,042
Total Government
216
1,062
8
186
137
396
52
Finance & Insurance
178
238
51
48 - 49
Transportation & Warehousing
1,594
214
589
930
76
382
205
8,504
11,546
1Q2005 AME
Information
44 - 45
Retail Trade
42
21
Mining
Wholesale Trade
11
11 - 99
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
Private Sector
Total, Park County
NAICS Code a
TABLE 2-5 COVERED AVERAGE MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT IN PARK COUNTY BY NAICS INDUSTRIES First Quarter 2005 Through First Quarter 2009
2,380
202
857
3,438
267
2,247
309
1,297
19
250
10
441
163
386
204
242
2,044
235
515
1,135
69
543
312
10,688
14,127
2Q2008 AME
2,188
200
1,014
3,402
288
2,750
364
1,319
62
292
17
438
168
391
200
254
2,423
234
516
1,117
72
538
342
11,784
15,186
3Q2008 AME
2,402
193
684
3,280
280
1,683
268
1,294
78
239
17
422
164
363
199
248
1,858
234
504
1,043
73
544
304
9,814
13,093
4Q2008 AME
Page 2-6
2,404
191
618
3,213
263
1,382
216
1,320
80
219
11
429
144
366
193
232
1,629
219
493
950
73
531
233
8,985
12,198
1Q2009 AME
2.4.3.3
Accommodations and Food Services
Accommodations and food services provided an average of 1,382 jobs per month during First Quarter 2009. This represented approximately 11 percent of total full and part-time employment. Similar to retail trade, jobs associated with accommodations and food services parallel the cyclical seasonal pattern of higher employment during the second and third quarter and lower employment during the first and fourth quarter of each year. The growth of jobs in this industry has also remained generally similar with the exception of a slight increase in the number of jobs in 2008. Since 2005, third quarter employment has ranged from an average of 2,615 jobs in Second Quarter 2005 to a peak of 2,750 jobs in Second Quarter 2008. In contrast, first quarter employment levels have ranged from 1,480 jobs in First Quarter 2005 to 1,369 jobs in First Quarter 2007.
2.4.3.4
Health Care and Social Assistance Services
Health care and social assistance services represented almost 11 percent of total full and part-time employment during First Quarter 2009. In the past five years, the number of jobs in this industry has generally increased from an average of 1,062 jobs in First Quarter 2005 to 1,320 jobs in First Quarter 2009. This industry serves the needs of both residents and visitors. with health care and social assistance services is primarily services to full-time residents. Consequently, the increase in these services can be attributed to the expansion of the demand for health care and social assistance services. 2.5
But employment associated derived from its delivery of employment associated with resident population and its
INDUSTRY TRENDS
During the next decade, housing demands in Park County will largely be generated from future increases and declines in employment in the Park County economy. In this context, it is important to examine and anticipate economic trends that will influence the primary sources of employment in the local economy, as well as other industries that are expected to experience a significant rise or fall in employment. 2.5.1 Government It is expected that the public economic sector of Park County economy may experience a nominal decline in the size of the government workforce in 2010 and 2011. This potential decline may be realized from an anticipated decrease in Wyoming mineral and sales tax revenues. The ongoing decline in these revenues would impact both state agencies, as well as county and municipal governments, that are located in Park County.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-7
It is anticipated that gradual increases in mineral production, e.g., crude oil, would initiate a gradual increase in government jobs in 2011 or 2012. The eventual expansion of mineral production in various parts of Wyoming is expected to sustain a gradual increase in state and local government employment through the remainder of the coming decade. 2.5.2 Retail Trade Since 2005, retail sale expenditures in Park County have increased only about 1.5 percent (Table 2-6). Expenditures rose from roughly $226.5 million in 2005 to almost $248.7 million in 2006, but then fell to roughly $217.3 million in 2007. Subsequently, retail expenditures gradually increased to almost $230 million through the second quarter of 2009. These trends suggest that the national recession did not significantly impact retail expenditures in Park County economy through Second Quarter 2009. Within the past five years, a rise in retail expenditures has been experienced by retail establishments providing building materials and garden supplies, liquor stores, auto dealers and part stores, miscellaneous retail establishments, clothing and shoe stores, and home furniture and furnishing stores, electronic and appliance stores, and department stores. The most significant increase was associated with the sale of building materials and garden supplies (Table 2-6). TABLE 2-6 RETAIL SALES TRENDS PARK COUNTY, WYOMING FY 2005 THROUGH FY 2009 Rate of Change 2005 to 2009 (Percent)
Total Retail Sales (dollars) Merchandise Group
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Auto Dealers and Parts
9,745,376
11,647,280
12,268,972
12,815,987
12,294,244
26
Gasoline Stations Home Furniture and Furnishings Electronic and Appliance Stores Building Material & Garden Supplies
8,430,527
9,648,287
8,678,903
7,655,190
8,356,579
-1
5,675,786
5,584,991
5,576,315
6,290,842
6,343,977
12
10,444,184
8,946,118
7,046,648
10,479,010
10,955,476
5
29,732,587
34,625,672
38,848,843
42,631,253
46,015,482
55
32,619,374
34,311,866
18,227,341
15,010,289
17,642,988
-46
Liquor Stores
4,376,270
4,900,996
5,240,213
5,329,751
5,622,681
28
Clothing and Shoe Stores
7,593,539
8,405,678
8,856,723
9,212,875
8,740,316
15
Department Stores
7,426,372
7,779,018
8,299,750
8,208,995
7,552,342
2
65,149,236
69,286,959
51,027,495
54,764,971
50,121,789
-23
45,344,759 226,538,010
53,541,240 248,678,104
53,214,816 217,286,017
55,931,955 228,331,117
56,332,720 229,978,592
24 1.52
Grocery and Food Stores
General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail
Total Retail Sales
Notes: Available data is for the State of Wyoming’s fiscal year which extends from July 1 through June 30. For example, FY 2009 represents the period from July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2009.
Sources: Wyoming Dept of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2009; Wyoming Dept of Revenue, 2009; Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-8
In contrast, other types of retail establishments have observed a decline in retail sales. These retail outlets included food and grocery stores, general merchandise stores, and gasoline stations. The greatest decline was experienced by food and grocery stores (Table 2-6). The decline in sales by these types of retail establishments is surprising since these stores typically provide items that American consumers consider more essential for daily living. PPC also completed a retail leakage analysis of the Park County economy. This analysis reveals that Park County residents made a significant amount (34 percent) of retail expenditures outside of Park County in 2009. Extensive leakage occurred in all retail merchandise groups, particularly gasoline stations, auto dealers, auto parts stores, department stores, as well as electronic and appliance stores. Consequently, the private sector has ample opportunity to capture a significantly greater volume of retail sales. At the same time, the financial viability of many local retail enterprises would be greatly strengthened by Park County residents making more retail expenditures in Park County. TABLE 2-7 RETAIL LEAKAGE BY MERCHANDISE GROUP PARK COUNTY, WYOMING 2009
Merchandise Group Auto Dealers and Parts Gasoline Stations Home Furniture and Furnishings Electronic and Appliance Stores Building Material and Garden Supplies Grocery and Food Stores Liquor Stores Clothing and Shoe Stores Department Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Total Retail Sales
Potential Sales ($)
Actual Sales ($)
Surplus or Leakage ($)
Surplus or Leakage (Proportion of Potential Sales)
32,520,870 32,042,982 10,131,632 20,392,727
12,294,244 8,356,579 6,343,977 10,955,476
-20,226,626 -23,686,403 -3,787,655 -9,437,252
-62.2 -73.9 -37.4 -46.3
70,363,940 14,799,836 7,239,335 11,251,767 14,538,128 67,211,850 70,696,610
46,015,482 17,642,988 5,622,681 8,740,316 7,552,342 50,121,789 56,332,720
-24,348,459 2,843,153 -1,616,655 -2,511,451 -6,985,786 -17,090,061 -14,363,891
-34.6 19.2 -22.3 -22.3 -48.1 -25.4 -20.3
351,189,678
229,978,592
-121,211,086
-34.5
Sources: Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2010; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2010; State of Wyoming Department of Revenue, 2010; and, Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
In the coming decade, retail sales in Park County are expected to near 2009 levels. Anticipated declines in employment in portions of the government and private sectors will likely reduce some types of retail expenditures in 2010 and 2011, or until the local county economy rebounds from the impact of the ongoing national recession and lack of mineral production in Wyoming. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-9
But potential short-term losses in employment in Park County will be offset by job gains in other industries of the economy, e.g., education services. New workers coming into Park County will bring new consumers into the local economy who will generate a wide range of retail expenditures. With the eventual return of expanded mineral production, e.g., oil and natural gas, in Wyoming, employment in retail trade is expected to increase. The increase will be derived from some nominal population growth in Park County. Seasonal swings in retail trade employment will continue until the Park County economy becomes more diversified and more jobs are established in other industries. 2.5.3 Accommodation and Food Services Since 2005, the sale of accommodation and food services has steadily increased. Accommodation sales increased 36 percent between 2005 and 2009 while the sale of food and beverage services increased 21 percent (Table 2-8). TABLE 2-8 ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE SALES PARK COUNTY, WYOMING 2005 TO 2009 Merchandise Group
Lodging Services Eating and Drinking Places Total Sales
Percent Change
Total Accommodation and Food Service Sales (dollars) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
31,160,328 40,215,878 71,376,207
34,423,757 43,602,729 78,026,485
36,628,115 45,363,539 81,991,653
39,736,065 47,557,145 87,293,209
42,316,206 48,763,295 91,079,501
36 21 28
Sources: Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2009; State of Wyoming Department of Revenue, 2009; and, Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009.
The increased sale of lodging services suggests a combination of possible factors such as a growing volume of overnight visitor stays, improved hotel and motel occupancies, and an upward trend in hotel and motel rates. A parallel increase in food and beverage sales is not surprising as any increase in overnight visits typically generates the demand for food and beverages offered by eating and drinking places. During the next decade, no significant increase in accommodation and food service sales is anticipated. Overnight visitor stays and related visitor expenditures are expected to generally level off until the national economy improves, the regional economy begins to realize expanded private investment and increased employment, and greater consumer confidence is accompanied by an increased in business and recreational travel expenditures. 2.5.4 Heath Care and Social Assistance Services Health care and social assistance services provided by the private sector can be expected to remain viable during the coming decade. These services will be sought by residents of Park County to sustain individual and family health. Some residents will also seek various types of available social assistance services to intervene unexpected circumstances or long-term disabilities. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-10
2.5.5 Educational Services Educational services in the private sector of the Park County economy, which employed approximately 80 persons in First Quarter 2009, could experience a significant expansion in the coming decade. Forward Cody submitted a $3 million grant application to the Wyoming Business Council in December 2009 for the acquisition of a four acre property in Cody and the related construction of a new office building. Potential approval of the grant application will be considered by the State Land and Investment Board in April 2010 (Billings Gazette, 2009). The planned office building would initially be owned and managed by Forward Cody, and leased to Eleutian Technology, an online language instruction company, for its corporate headquarters. However, it is anticipated that Eleutian Technology would eventually purchase the building from Forward Cody (Klessens, 2009). If the grant is approved, Eleutian Technology intends to employ 20 persons upon completion of a new 10,000 square foot building on the four acre site in 2010. The company anticipates adding another 20 jobs to its workforce by sometime in 2013. The average annual wage for company employees will be about $50,000 (Billings Gazette, 2009). 2.6
INCOME
The examination of average monthly incomes associated with jobs in specific industries, which comprise the Park County economy, provides baseline information necessary to determine how much residents are able to pay for housing. In Chapter Five this information is eventually correlated with the cost of fee simple and rental housing, as well as the lending policies of local residential mortgage lenders, to assess the capability of Park County residents to purchase and rent available housing. 2.6.1 General In First Quarter 2009, employed persons working in the Park County economy received an average monthly wage or salary of $2,936 (Table 2-9). Government wage and salaries ($3,260 per month) in First Quarter 2009 paid somewhat higher than jobs in the private sector ($2,823 per month). But within the private sector, the range of average wage and salaries varied considerably.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-11
TABLE 2-9 AVERAGE MONTHLY INCOME PER JOB IN PARK COUNTY INDUSTRIES FIRST QUARTER 2009 Average Average Monthly Monthly b NAICS Wagesb Employment Code a (Persons) (Dollars) Total, Park County Private Sector Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
11 - 99 11 21 22 23 31 - 33 42 44 - 45 48 - 49 51 52 53 54 55 56 61 62 71 72 81
Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government
12,198
$2,936
8,985 233 531 73 950 493 219 1,629 232 193 366 144 429 11 219 80 1,320 216 1,382 263
$2,823 $2,226 $9,405 $4,404 $2,892 $2,849 $3,689 $1,983 $2,892 $2,516 $3,507 $1,689 $3,546 $7,188 $1,736 $961 $3,027 $2,204 $1,178 $1,892
3,213 618 191 2,404
$3,260 $4,183 $3,776 $2,983
Notes: a Industry codes established by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). b Preliminary data subject to revision. Sources: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages developed through a cooperative program between Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-12
2.6.2 Private Sector Within the private sector, higher monthly incomes are obtained by those residents who work in the mining industry. In Park County, the mining industry primarily includes persons working in regional oil and gas exploration and production. In First Quarter 2009, mining industry workers in Park County earned an average monthly income of approximately $9,405. Persons involved in the management of companies and enterprises in Park County received an average salary of $7,188 per month while persons working in local utilities earned $4,404 per month. Employees working in these industries, as well as the mining industry, received incomes that exceeded the average wage and salaries for all government workers. Employees of health care and social services in Park County earned average wages and salaries of $3,027 per month. This average salary was somewhat less than the monthly earnings of those working in the government sector. In contrast, considerably lower incomes in the private sector were earned by those working in retail trade ($1,983 per month), accommodations and food services ($1,178 per month). In First Quarter 2009, the lowest monthly earnings in the private sector were received by those employed by private educational services ($961 per month). At the same time, it is likely that many of the jobs in retail trade, accommodations, and food services represent part-time job earnings. 2.6.3 Public Sector The average monthly wage or salary for government workers in First Quarter 2009 ranged between $2,983 for municipal and Park County workers, $3,776 per month for employees of the State of Wyoming, to $4,183 per month for federal employees of the U.S. Government. Local government workers represented 75 percent of all government employment during First Quarter 2009. 2.7
FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH
2.7.1 Alternate Approaches Used to Calculate Future Growth The development of a forecast for future population growth is necessary to help estimate the future demand for housing in Park County. A number of approaches are commonly used to forecast future population growth. Three of the more common approaches include: • • •
Time series analysis; Cohort survival method; and, Employment-based analyses.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-13
2.7.1.1
Time Series Analysis
Time series analysis relies upon past population growth trends and applies past trends to forecast future growth. Forecasts typically assume that factors influencing future growth, e.g., fertility, mortality and migration, will not change significantly. This is a relatively simple approach to forecasting future community populations. The time series approach, which is used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, is not a prudent methodology since Park County is periodically influenced by significant swings in regional mineral development, e.g., crude oil. This factor, in itself, can lead to unrealistic assumptions concerning future in and out-migration.
2.7.1.2
Cohort Survival Method
Forecasts made using the cohort survival method rely upon fertility and mortality rates, as well as net migration patterns, for various age and sex cohorts. Regional projections of mortality and fertility are applied to each age and sex cohort within a community to produce forecasts of change for each cohort. When combined, forecasts can be developed for a community, county, or larger regional area. While this approach considers basic factors that influence future population growth, this method is more successfully applied to communities where in and out-migration are more stable and have a negligible influence upon the size and composition of a community population (Isard, 1960). During the coming decade, oil and natural gas reserves in America’s Rocky Mountain region will likely be further explored and produced in a significant way to help meet increased energy demands in the United States. Such development may include the development of reserves in both Park County and neighboring Big Horn County. If realized, regional oil and gas development would generate highly variable changes in population migration. Consequently, this method was not considered appropriate for the preparation of a forecast for Park County.
2.7.1.3
Employment-Based Analysis
Employment-based analysis considers potential changes in community or regional employment, natural growth rates, and migration. Employment-based forecasts are typically do not extend beyond 10 years because future employment trends are often highly variable and influenced by numerous factors such as regional business climate, commercial lending rates, as well as the demand for products and services. Drivers’ license exchange/surrender data from the Wyoming Department of Transportation facilitates the estimation of in and out migration. However, available data does include information for persons under 16 years of age. Despite inherent limitations, this approach was considered to be a more reasonable approach and selected for calculation of a 10-year population forecast for Park County. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-14
2.7.2 Population Forecast
2.7.2.1
How Future Growth Was Calculated
Pedersen Planning Consultants prepared an employment-based forecast through its development of a statistical model and the related incorporation of various statistical inputs. These inputs were based upon various assumptions concerning the future rate of natural growth and migration, as well as future employment in all industries in the Park County economy. Industry trends (see Section 2.5), as well as data obtained from an employer survey, established the basis for assumptions concerning future employment. This information enabled Pedersen Planning Consultants to estimate the potential number of new or lost jobs in each industry for each year in the coming decade. Potential new jobs in various industries and their potential dependents represented anticipated in-migrants to Park County. Conversely, potential out-migrants represented jobs that are expected to be lost in one or more industries. Potential out-migration was estimated using a ratio derived from driver license exchange/surrender data for Park County between 2000 and 2008.
2.7.2.2
Anticipated Population Growth
During the next decade, the resident population of Park County is expected to experience some modest growth. By the year 2020, the Park County population is expected to increase to approximately 33,798 persons (Table 2-10). It is anticipated that Park County’s population will increase about 14 percent between 2010 and 2020. The annual rate of growth is expected to range from about 0.9 percent and 1.6 percent per year. TABLE 2-10 ANTICIPATED POPULATION GROWTH PARK COUNTY, WYOMING 2010-2020 Year End
Population
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
29,281 29,539 29,863 30,242 30,489 30,894 31,380 31,962 32,400 32,815 33,285 33,798
Births
Deaths
262 252 266 241 275 311 335 332 130 272 294
202 213 237 228 252 236 250 235 92 217 251
In Migration
Out Migration
402 649 777 958 757 1055 1229 1,404 1077 1,186 1,341
204 364 427 724 375 644 732 1063 700 771 871
Annual Population Growth
258 324 379 247 405 486 582 438 415 470 513
Annual Population Growth Rate
0.88% 1.10% 1.27% 0.82% 1.33% 1.57% 1.85% 1.37% 1.28% 1.43% 1.54%
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-15
Information gained from the Park County employer survey conducted in early 2010 suggests that most industries will add few jobs to the Park County between 2010 and 2012. Greater job creation and related population growth is anticipated with the realization of an improved national and regional business climate. The initial five years of the coming decade will primarily be influenced educational service workers entering Park County’s private sector. These represent employees of Eleutian Technology which has pledged to headquarters to the City of Cody if the company can lease a new office Forward Cody.
by 40 new workers will relocate its facility from
It is anticipated that some growth in the Park County’s mining industry employment will take place sometime beginning in 2010. Mining industry employment in Park County is primarily associated with crude oil exploration and production in nearby oil fields in the Big Horn Basin and other areas such as Spring Creek Field, Pitchfork, Byron-Garland and Hot Springs Grassfields (Vezza, 2010). It is also important to note that Marathon Oil recently established a Wyoming Asset Team that now manages corporate assets in the Big Horn Basin, the Power River Basin, Wind River Basin, and Greater Green River Basin. The hub of management activities for this regional area will be centered in Cody, Wyoming. Marathon’s management activities will continue to be supported by geotechnical and petroleum engineering personnel in Marathon’s corporate office (Vezza, 2010). The United States Government is expected to eventually establish policies that will encourage greater oil and natural gas production in the Rocky Mountain Region, particularly the development of active leases on federal land. While Park County will likely not be a primary area of exploration and production, the implementation of such a federal policy will likely generate some expansion of oil exploration and production in areas such as the Oregon Basin and gradually stimulate a continued expansion of the mining industry workforce in Park County. Between 2010 and 2020, it was assumed that the mining industry would add roughly 295 new jobs that would become based in Park County. The potential expansion of mining industry activity and employment would likely attract some investment in new residential construction, professional and technical services, as well as transportation services, supporting increased natural gas development. Such services would likely establish in the vicinity of Cody, Powell and, possibly, Meeteetse between 2014 and 2020. The potential surge in employment from an expansion of educational services, and the eventual growth of the mining industry workforce, would likely prompt greater investments and expenditures in retail trade, as well as accommodations and food services, sometime after 2014. A potential rise in resident and visitor expenditures for retail trade, as well as accommodations and food services, would also generate a rise in the number of persons employed in both industries beginning around 2015. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-16
Support services such as finance and insurance, real estate and leasing and other services will likely see some increase with the gradual emergence of an improved business climate after 2012. Similarly, new jobs in health care and social will likely take place. Any expansion of oil and natural gas exploration and production in northwest and north central Wyoming would likely increase government employment in Park County. The workforce of federal agencies such as the U.S. Bureau of Land Management would expand to support increased monitoring of natural resources, as well as natural gas exploration sites and production areas.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 2-17
CHAPTER THREE COMMUNITY HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS 3.1
INTRODUCTION
The development of meaningful housing improvement strategies is dependent, in part, upon an understanding of selected community housing characteristics and costs. In the absence of this information, faulty assumptions can be made about available housing, future housing demands, the affordability of available housing, and other housing issues. Faulty assumptions can lead to the preparation of strategies that fail to address primary housing issues and potential housing development opportunities. Chapter Three provides an overview of housing characteristics in Park County. Available data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census identifies past housing characteristics in April 2000. In addition, the U.S Bureau of Census, Population Division, has prepared more recent housing estimates for Park County. Pedersen Planning Consultants completed a more recent housing inventory of the City of Cody, City of Powell and Town of Meeteetse in December 2009 which enabled the determination of more recent changes in the type, number and location of housing units in these communities during the past decade. Housing units in the unincorporated area of Park County were excluded from the inventory due to project budget limitations. Forward Cody retained the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors to compile sales data for improved and unimproved residential properties in 2007, 2008, and 2009 to facilitate the analysis of housing market in Park County. This information was derived from more specific data maintained within the organization’s multiple listing service. Sales data provided considerable insights concerning recent demands for housing, as well as the cost for various types of residential properties. In Chapter Five, housing cost data was also correlated with wage and salary data associated with each industry in Park County to help evaluate the affordability of housing for local and prospective residents. 3.2
SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF AVAILABLE HOUSING
TABLE 3-1 TYPE OF HOUSING PARK COUNTY, WYOMING APRIL 2000
Type of Housing Single-family Attached1 Single-family Detached2 Townhome/Duplex Apts (3-9 Units) Apts (10 + Units ) Mobile Home Boat/RV Total
Number of Housing Units 376 8,679 279 791 236 1,497 11 11,869
Notes: 1. An attached single-family home is a home where the garage is physically attached to the housing unit. 2. A detached single-family home is a home where the garage is physically detached from the housing unit, but located on the same residential lot. Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, 2000.
The 2000 Census, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, documented 11,869 housing units in Park County in April, 2000 (Table 3-1). The Bureau of the Census, Population Division, estimated that there were 13,285 housing units in July 2008 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, 2009). This gain represented an 11.9 percent increase in the number of housing units since April 2000. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-1
The correlation of the July 2008 housing estimate with the data from the December 2009 housing inventory indicates that roughly 54 percent of all housing in Park County is located within the municipal boundaries of the City of Cody, City of Powell and the Town of Meeteetse. But, all remaining housing is located within the unincorporated area of Park County. 3.2.1 City of Cody In December 2009, there were approximately 4,571 housing units (Table 3-2) in the City of Cody (Figure 3-1). This compares to 4,140 housing units documented by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in April 2000. The size of Cody’s housing inventory expanded just over 10 percent during the past decade and proportionally grew more than any other Park County community. TABLE 3-2 TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING IN CODY, POWELL, AND MEETEETSE DECEMBER 2009 Ward 1
Cody Ward Ward 2 3
Total
Ward 1
Powell Ward Ward 2 3
Units
Structure Type
Meeteetse Total
Units
Total Inventory
Units
Single-family Attached1 Single-family Detached2
166
64
116
346
6
0
18
24
0
370
969
884
850
2,703
437
547
528
1512
163
4378
Townhome/Duplex
14
42
65
121
36
26
28
90
6
217
Apts (3-9 Units)
97
448
532
1,077
131
7
41
179
0
1256
Apts (10 + Units )
0
100
12
112
428
0
12
440
0
552
Mobile Home
35
11
157
203
0
0
161
161
9
373
Boat/RV
6
1
2
9
0
0
0
0
13
22
2,406
191
7,168
4,571
Notes: 1. An attached single-family home is a housing unit where the garage is physically attached to the housing unit. 2. A detached single-family home where the garage is physically detached from the housing unit, but located on the same residential lot.
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2009.
3.2.1.1
Single-Family Homes
A detached or attached single-family home is the predominant type of housing found in the City of Cody. The U.S. Census considers an attached single-family home as a singlefamily home where the garage is attached to the residential structure. Conversely, an improved residential property with a single-family home and detached garage is considered a detached single-family home. In December 2009, detached and attached single-family homes accounted for almost 67 percent of all housing in the community. These homes are situated throughout the community, but most detached single-family homes are located in Ward 1 which comprises the west side of town (Figure 3-2). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-2
©
Legend
WARD 1 2 3 Cody Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Wards 1-3 City of Cody
Figure 3-1
© 120 U V
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 20
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV
WARD 1 2 US Highway State Highway
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 1 City of Cody December 2009 Figure 3-2
3.2.1.2
Townhomes/Duplexes
A duplex is another type of single-family residential unit that shares a common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Townhomes in Cody are residential structures where three to six single-family homes share one common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Duplexes and townhomes are scattered throughout the City of Cody. These residential buildings are more common in Central Estates 6-unit Townhomes the central (Ward 2) and eastern (Ward 3) parts of the community (Figure 3-3 and Figure 3-4).
3.2.1.3
Residential Apartments
There were approximately 1,189 residential apartment units in the City of Cody in December 2009. Residential apartment units represented 26 percent of total housing inventory. Most of the residential apartments were located in Wards 2 and 3. The majority of the residential apartment units were located in smaller residential apartment buildings that contained up to nine residential apartments.
3.2.1.4
Residential Apartments in Cody
Mobile Homes
A manufactured home is a transportable structure in one or more sections. In the traveling mode, a manufactured home is 8 or more feet wide and 40 feet or more in length. When erected on-site, a manufactured home contains 320 or more square feet. The structure is built on a permanent chassis and designed to be used as a dwelling with or without a permanent foundation. However, in order to become eligible for mortgage insurance offered by the U.S. Federal Housing Administration, all manufactured home must comply with the following criteria: • • •
Contains a floor area of not less than 400 square feet; the home is constructed after June 15, 1976, in conformance with federal manufactured home construction and safety standards which are evidenced by an affixed certification label; designed to be used as a dwelling with a permanent foundation built to criteria of the U.S. Federal Housing Administration;
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-5
© 120 U V
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 20
£ ¤ 16
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE
£ ¤ 20
Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV
WARD 1 2 3 US Highway State Highway Lakes
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 2 City of Cody December 2009 Figure 3.3
© £ ¤ 14
£ ¤ 20
£ ¤ 14
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV
WARD 2 3 US Highway State Highway Lake
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 3 City of Cody December 2009 Figure 3-4
• • •
built and remains on a permanent chassis; classified and subject to taxation as real estate; the finished grade elevation under the manufactured home or, if a basement is used, the lowest finished exterior grade adjacent to the perimeter enclosure, shall be at, or above, the 100-year return frequency flood elevation; and, any mortgage must cover the manufactured home and building site and shall have a loan term of not more than 30 years (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010).
For the purposes of this study, mobile homes were considered to be pre-fabricated residential structures that were situated on temporary foundations. During the December 2009 inventory, a pre-fabricated home which contained a visible hitch was documented as a mobile home. Since exterior skirting typically conceals building foundations and the hitch originally used to transport the building, the estimated number of mobile homes may be conservative. Mobile homes represented just over four percent of the total housing inventory in December 2009. A greater proportion of mobile homes were documented on the east side of the community (Ward 3), particularly north of U.S. Highway 14.
3.2.1.5
Recreational Vehicles
In December 2009, nine recreational vehicles were observed to be used for long-term residential purposes. Six of the nine recreational vehicles were discovered on the west side of Cody in Ward 1. 3.2.2
City of Powell
Approximately 2,406 housing units (Table 3-2) were documented in the City of Powell in December 2009 (Figure 3-5). This compares to 2,243 housing units reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in April 2000. Consequently, the housing inventory of Powell grew slightly more than seven percent during the past decade.
3.2.2.1
Single-Family Homes
A detached or attached single-family home is the predominant type of housing found in the City of Powell. The U.S. Census considers an attached single-family home as a single-family home where the garage is attached to the residential structure. Conversely, an improved residential property with a single-family home and detached garage is considered a detached single-family home.
Single-family Home in West Powell
In December 2009, detached and attached single-family homes accounted for almost 64 percent of all housing in the community. These homes are primarily situated south and west of Northwest College of Wyoming, as well as southwest of U.S. Highway 14 (Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-8
©
295 V U
£ ¤ 14
Legend Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 US Highway State Highway Powel Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Wards 1-3 City of Powell
Figure 3-5
©
£ ¤ 14
295 V U
Legend STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 US Highway State Highway Powel Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Wards 1 and 3 City of Powell December 2009 Figure 3-6
©
Legend
£ ¤ 14
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 US Highway State Highway Powel Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessment Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Ward 2 City of Powell December 2009 Figure 3-7
3.2.2.2
Townhomes/Duplexes
A duplex is another type of single-family residential unit that shares a common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Townhomes in the City of Powell are residential structures where three to six single-family homes share one common wall with an adjoining single-family home.
Duplex in North Powell
Duplexes and townhomes, which are scattered throughout each of the three wards in Powell, represented less than four percent of the total housing inventory in December 2009. While these units comprise only a small segment of the total housing inventory, the number of duplexes and townhomes rose 23 percent during the past decade. In contrast, detached and attached single-family homes increased only 12 percent. This trend suggests that residential developers are increasingly incorporating this type of housing in newer residential subdivisions.
3.2.2.3
Residential Apartments
There were 619 residential apartment units in the City of Powell in December 2009. Residential apartment units represented 26 percent of total housing inventory. Most of the residential apartments were located in Ward 1. Many of the apartments were located on the Northwest College of Wyoming campus in Apartment Building on Sunlight Drive in Powell college dormitories. Secondarily, some residential apartment buildings are situated in Ward 3 near to the college campus. No residential apartments were located in Ward 2.
3.2.2.4
Mobile Homes
For the purposes of this study, mobile homes are considered pre-fabricated residential structures that are situated on temporary foundations. During the December 2009 inventory, a pre-fabricated home which contained a visible hitch was documented as a mobile home. Since exterior skirting typically conceals the building foundations and hitch, the estimated number of mobile homes may be conservative. Mobile homes comprised just under seven percent of Powell’s total housing inventory in December 2009. Mobile homes were found in designated mobile home parks that were located only in Ward 3.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-12
3.2.2.5
Recreational Vehicles
No recreational vehicles in the City of Powell were observed to be used for long-term residential purposes in December 2009. 3.2.3 Town of Meeteetse In December 2009, Pedersen Planning Consultants documented 191 housing units (Table 3-2) in the Town of Meeteetse (Figure 3-8). This compares to 192 housing units reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in April 2000. Consequently, the housing inventory of Meeteetse apparently lost one residential structure during the past decade.
3.2.3.1
Single-Family Homes
A detached or attached single-family home is the predominant type of housing found in the Town of Meeteetse. The U.S. Census considers an attached single-family home as a single-family home where the garage is attached to the residential structure. Conversely, an improved residential property with a single-family home and detached garage is considered a detached single-family home. In December 2009, 163 detached single-family homes accounted for 85 percent of all housing in the community. These homes are located throughout all residential areas in the community.
3.2.3.2
Townhomes/Duplexes
A duplex is another type of single-family residential unit that shares a common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Townhomes are residential structures where three to six single-family homes share one common wall with an adjoining single-family home. Six duplex units were observed during the December 2009 inventory. These units were located near the east end of Franklin Street. No townhome units were observed in the community.
3.2.3.3
Residential Apartments
No residential apartments were observed in the community in December 2009.
3.2.3.4
Mobile Homes
For the purposes of this study, mobile homes are considered pre-fabricated residential structures that are situated on temporary foundations. During the December 2009 inventory, a pre-fabricated home which contained a visible hitch was documented as a mobile home. Since exterior skirting typically conceals the building foundations and hitch, the estimated number of mobile homes may be conservative. Nine mobile homes comprised just under five percent of Meeteetse’s total housing inventory in December 2009. Four of these mobile homes were situated in a small mobile home park situated on the north side of Nevada Street.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-13
©
Legend
STRUCTURE TYPE Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Condo Apts Mobile Home Boat/RV Vacant Residential US Highway State Highway River Meeteetse Municipal Boundary
Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Residential Housing Town of Meeteetse December 2009
Figure 3-8
3.2.3.5
Recreational Vehicles
Thirteen recreational vehicles in the Town of Meeteetse were observed to be used for long-term residential purposes in December 2009. The recreational vehicles were located southeast of the Highland Avenue/State Highway 120 intersection, as well as near the east end of Fulton Street and Franklin Street. 3.3
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
3.3.1 Types of Households In April 2000, almost 69 percent of all households in Park County were family households. The number of married couples represented 86 percent of these households. Roughly four of 10 ten of all family households included children under 18 years of age. Non-family households comprised about 31 percent of all households in Park County. Householders living alone resided in eighty-four percent of these households. About one in three of the non-family householders were individuals who were 65 or more years of age. It is likely that family and household characteristics evident in April 2000 have not changed significantly in 2010. One exception may be non-family household characteristics which, on a national basis, have changed through the gradual emergence of new lifestyle preferences. 3.3.2 Household Size The average Park County household contained 2.42 persons in April 2000. The average family size included 2.92 persons (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000). 3.3.3 Home Occupancy In April 2000, the U.S. Census reported that about 71 percent of all occupied housing units in Park County were occupied by owners of their housing unit. The remaining 29 percent were occupied by persons leasing rental housing. The eventual availability of comparable data from the 2010 Census will enable the determination of what proportion of housing units are occupied by owners and renters. Pedersen Planning Consultants examined selected water and wastewater billing data from the City of Cody to ascertain if home occupancy characteristics in 2009 were comparable to home occupancy characteristics in 2000. A correlation of in situ and billing address information furnished by the City of Cody suggests that roughly 92 percent of all housing units the City of Cody were owner occupied in 2009. A significant reduction in the proportion of renter-occupied units is not likely. Many older single-family homes have, over the years, been partitioned into two dwelling units. For example, a home originally built at 409 Smith Street may have been renovated and now has two addresses, 409A and 409B Smith Street. The owner may be receiving one water and wastewater bill even though property contains two residential units. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-15
3.4
COST AND AVAILABILITY OF HOUSING
3.4.1 Introduction As stated earlier, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors compiled sales data for improved and unimproved residential properties located in Park County and its three primary communities. The data included sales for calendar years 2007, 2008, and 2009. Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors website to identify the type, location and listing prices for housing units available for purchase in April 2010. Insights were also gained from Jake Fulkerson of QM Appraisal in Cody, Wyoming who previously examined sales data for the 2007-2009 period. His analyses included an examination of housing market prices, as well as an estimated the length of time available housing inventory might be absorbed by the housing market. On a cumulative basis, Pedersen Planning Consultants used information gained from these sources, as well as its own analyses, to identify and evaluate recent trends associated with the cost and availability of housing. It is important to note that residential properties sold on the Northwest Board of Realtors MLS do not represent all residential sales that occurred between 2007 and 2009. For example, there may have been as many as 100 additional residential properties in Park County that were sold by property owners in 2009 (Lowham, 2010). 3.4.2 Cody
3.4.2.1
Residential Property Trends within the City of Cody
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Similar to other Wyoming communities, the purchasers of residential property between 2007 and 2009 demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. Between 2007 and 2009, 432 improved residential properties and 49 unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 3-3). Consequently, improved residential properties represented 90 percent of the market over the three year period. Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales within the municipal boundary of the City of Cody fell from 157 sales in 2007 to 127 sales in 2009. This represented a decline of about 19 percent. This decline is not surprising in view of the downturns in the national and regional economies. The size of homes sold during the three-year changed only modestly. The average home sold contained just over 2,000 square feet in 2007 and 2008. The size of the average home sold in Cody declined to just below 2,000 square feet in 2009. The price of the average home increased from roughly $197,000 to over $202,000 in 2008. However, average home prices subsequently declined to about $187,000 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices decreased only about five percent during the 20072009 period. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-16
TABLE 3-3 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS CODY, WYOMING 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
157 148 127
Average Sale Price
$ 196,962 $ 202,152 $ 186,865
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Number of Sales
2,043 2,037 1,944
22 19 8
Average Sale Price
$ 75,170 $ 65,104 $ 52,509
Average Lot Size (sq. ft.)
17,512 10,466 21,082
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010
When average sale prices are correlated with the average floor space, it becomes apparent that housing sales reflected a $96 to $99 per square foot range between 2007 and 2009. Higher sales per square foot occurring only during 2008. Viewed on a square foot basis, housing prices essentially remained the same except for a brief three percent rise in 2008. Despite some softening in overall demand for improved residential properties and buildable residential lots, it should be encouraging to property owners that sale prices have not slid. This contrasts with many other American communities which have experienced sale price reductions as a result of the ongoing economic recession. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 102 improved residential property listings within the City of Cody. The average list or asking price for these properties was $248,036. Eighty-six percent of the properties were priced under $300,000 (Table 3-4). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, recently correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the total number of improved residential property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent housing demand. This correlation suggested that available housing inventory in January 2010 could theoretically meet housing demands or through October 2010 (Fulkerson, 2010).
Park County Housing Assessment
TABLE 3-4 AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS CODY,WYOMING APRIL 2010 Selling Price
Number of Units Available
$50,000 - $100,000 2 $100,000 - $110,000 2 $110,000 - $120,000 3 $120,000 - $130,000 13 $130,000 - $140,000 6 $140,000 - $150,000 5 $150,000 - $160,000 3 $160,000 - $170,000 9 $170,000 - $180,000 5 $180,000 - $190,000 7 $190,000 - $200,000 2 $200,000 - $210,000 3 $210,000 - $220,000 4 $220,000 - $230,000 1 $230,000 - $240,000 7 $240,000 - $250,000 6 $250,000 - $260,000 4 $260,000 - $270,000 4 $270,000 - $280,000 7 $280,000 - $290,000 1 $290,000 - $300,000 3 $300,000 - $500,000 13 Over $500,000 3 Total 113 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-17
Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices for 113 properties ranged between $50,000 to over $500,000. But listing prices for 74 percent of all available properties within the City of Cody fell in the $120,000-$280,000 range.
3.4.2.2
Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Cody
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 In the unincorporated area in the vicinity of Cody, 268 residential properties listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS were sold between 2007 and 2009. Almost 67 percent of these were improved residential properties. The remaining 33 percent were unimproved residential lots where new homes could be built (Table 3-5). TABLE 3-5 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS VICINITY OF CODY 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Year
Number of Sales
Average Sale Price
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
80 56 43
$312,361 $381,993 $340,719
2,266 2,434 2,664
2007 2008 2009
46 28 15
Average Sale Price
$89,102 $118,283 $99,620
Average Lot Size (acres)
7 15 7
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
While total sales within the City of Cody were greater, more unimproved lot sales occurred in the unincorporated area near the City of Cody. A greater proportion of all buyers purchasing unimproved lots in the unincorporated area likely envisioned purchasing and developing a new residential lot. Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales in the unincorporated area, in the vicinity of the City of Cody, steadily declined from 80 sales in 2007 to 43 sales in 2009. This 46 percent decline differed from sales within the municipal boundary of Cody which fell only 19 percent during the three-year period. But this decline was, again, not surprising in view of the downturns in the national and regional economies. The size of homes sold between 2007 and 2009 increased. The average home sold contained about 2,266 square feet in 2007, 2,434 square feet in 2008, and 2,664 square feet in 2009. The price of the average home in the unincorporated area, in the vicinity of Cody, rose from about $312,361 in 2007 to almost $382,000 in 2008. However, average home prices subsequently fell to approximately $340,700 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices rose about nine percent over the three year period. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-18
But, since the size of sold homes increased somewhat between 2007 and 2009, it is useful to correlate average sale prices with average floor space in order to calculate and compare the price per square foot. The price per square foot of residential homes in the unincorporated area near Cody was $138 in 2007, rose to $157 per square foot in 2008, but then declined to $128 per square foot in 2009. Viewed on this basis, housing prices declined about seven percent between 2007 and 2009. The overall demand for both improved residential properties and buildable residential lots in the unincorporated area fell between 2007 and 2009. But, this decline was not accompanied by a significant decrease in property values. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 77 improved residential property listings in the vicinity of Cody. The average list or asking price for these properties was $571,636 and two-thirds of the available listings in the vicinity of Cody represented properties listed for under $500,000 (Fulkerson, 2010). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the TABLE 3-6 total number of improved residential AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS VICINITY OF CODY property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent APRIL 2010 housing demand. This correlation Number of Units suggested that available housing inventory Selling Price Available in January 2010 could theoretically meet $100,000 - $140,000 1 housing demands or through October $140,000 - $150,000 0 2011 (Fulkerson, 2010). $150,000 - $160,000 0 Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices ranged between $100,000 and $3.0 million. But listing prices for twothirds of all available properties in the vicinity of Cody fell in the $300,000-$1.0 million range (Table 3-6).
Park County Housing Assessment
$160,000 - $170,000 0 $170,000 - $180,000 2 $180,000 - $190,000 2 $190,000 - $200,000 2 $200,000 - $210,000 1 $210,000 - $220,000 0 $220,000 - $230,000 1 $230,000 - $240,000 1 $240,000 - $250,000 1 $250,000 - $260,000 2 $260,000 - $270,000 2 $270,000 - $280,000 2 $280,000 - $290,000 1 $290,000 - $300,000 7 $300,000 - $550,000 40 $550,000 – $750,000 9 $750,000 – $1,000,000 10 $1,000,000 – $1,250,000 1 $1.250,000 – $1,500,000 2 $1,500,000 – $3,000,000 2 Total 89 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors ®, 2010. Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-19
3.4.3 Powell
3.4.3.1
Residential Property Trends in the City of Powell
Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Between 2007 and 2009, the purchasers of residential property in the City of Powell demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. During this period, 269 improved residential properties and 17 unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 3-7). Consequently, improved residential properties represented 94 percent of the market over the three year period. TABLE 3-7 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS POWELL, WYOMING 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES
Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
101 94 74
Average Sale Price
$156,985 $155,456 $146,562
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Number of Sales
2,089 1,647 1,584
11 4 2
Average Sale Price
$42,900 $37,000 $30,000
Average Lot Size (sq. ft.)
16,393 13,872 6,001
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors ®, 2010.
Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales within the City of Powell steadily declined from 101 sales in 2007 to 74 sales in 2009. This represented a decline of almost 27 percent. Similar to Cody, this decline likely reflected downturns in both the national and regional economies. The size of homes sold during the three-year changed considerably. The average home sold contained just over 2,089 square feet in 2007, declined to 1,647 square feet in 2008, and fell to 1,584 square feet in 2009. The 24 percent decline in average floor space may signal a gradual trend toward the construction and availability of smaller homes in the market. The price of the average home slid from almost $157,000 in 2007 to roughly $146,500 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices fell almost seven percent during the 2007-2009 period. The correlation of average sale prices with the average floor space of improved residential properties probably provides a more meaningful insight to the cost of property in Powell. In 2007, the cost per square foot for improved residential properties was approximately $75 per square foot. Subsequently, the cost per square foot rose to about $94 in 2008 and $93 in 2009. So, while average sales prices declined almost seven percent, the cost per square foot rose of improved residential properties increased about 25 percent. The significant rise in the cost per square foot probably reflects the increased cost of construction and sale of more new homes in the Powell market which previously included somewhat larger homes. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-20
Overall, recent reductions in the sale of residential property and average sales prices clearly demonstrate a buyers market. At the same time, the rising cost per square foot for housing may be discouraging to some consumers. While new residential construction typically often generates this trend, the overall market is improved as available inventory becomes more diversified and attractive to potential home buyers and companies seeking to establish or relocate a new business. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 77 improved residential property listings in the City of Powell. The average list or asking price for these properties was $189,597; 92 percent of the available listings in the City of Powell represented properties listed for under $300,000 (Fulkerson, 2010). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the total number of improved residential property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent housing demand. TABLE 3-8 This correlation suggested that available AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS housing inventory in January 2010 could CITY OF POWELL, WYOMING APRIL 2010 theoretically meet housing demands through Number of Units August 2010 (Fulkerson, 2010). Selling Price
Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices ranged between $50,000 and $500,000. But listing prices for almost 57 percent of all available properties in the City of Powell fell in the $50,000-$170,000 range (Table 3-8).
3.4.3.2 Residential Property Trends in the Vicinity of Powell Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Between 2007 and 2009, the purchasers of residential property in the vicinity of Powell demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. During this period, 56 Park County Housing Assessment
Available
$50,000 - $100,000 $100,000 - $110,000 $110,000 - $120,000 $120,000 - $130,000 $130,000 - $140,000 $140,000 - $150,000 $150,000 - $160,000 $160,000 - $170,000 $170,000 - $180,000 $180,000 - $190,000 $190,000 - $200,000 $200,000 - $210,000 $210,000 - $220,000 $220,000 - $230,000 $230,000 - $240,000 $240,000 - $250,000 $250,000 - $260,000 $260,000 - $270,000 $270,000 - $280,000 $280,000 - $290,000 $290,000 - $300,000 $300,000 - $500,000 Over $500,000 Total Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
7 4 4 3 4 5 7 5 2 3 2 1 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 0 2 4 0 69
Page 3-21
improved residential properties and 37 unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 3-9). Consequently, improved residential properties represented 60 percent of the market over the three year period. The sale of improved residential property declined of about 61 percent between 2007 and 2009. The number of improved residential property sales sold in the vicinity of Powell fell from 56 sales in 2007 to 24 sales in 2009. Similar to Cody, this decline likely reflected downturns in both the national and regional economies. TABLE 3-9 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS VICINITY OF POWELL 2007-2009
IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Year 2007 2008 2009
Number of sales
Average sale price
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
56 46 24
$213,386 $234,430 $205,538
1,570 2,100 2,157
BUILDABLE LOT SALES Number of sales
Average sale price
Average Lot Size (acres)
37 24 15
$128,232 $136,282 $88,517
34 55 29
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
The size of homes sold between 2007 and 2009 actually increased. The average home sold contained 1,570 square feet in 2007, expanded to 2,100 square feet in 2008, and rose to 2,157 square feet in 2009. The increase in average floor area may represent the sale of a greater proportion of older homes. The price of the average home fell from $213,386 in 2007 to $205,538 in 2009. Consequently, average home prices fell almost four percent during the 2007-2009 period. The correlation of average sale prices with the average floor space of improved residential properties probably provides a more meaningful insight to the cost of property in the vicinity of Powell. In 2007, the cost per square foot for improved residential properties was almost $136 per square foot. The cost per square foot fell to about $112 in 2008, and declined further to approximately $95 in 2009. This trend contrasts sharply with average floor space costs in the City of Powell where average floor space costs rose 25 percent between 2007 and 2009. Various factors influence average floor space costs. For example, variability in the age and size of housing sold during the 2007-2009 period could easily spike or decline sale prices in any given year. Available Inventory On January 1, 2010, the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service included 40 improved residential property listings in the vicinity of Powell. The average list or asking price for these properties was $286,290. List prices for ninety-five percent of the available improved residential properties near Powell were under $500,000 (Fulkerson, 2010). QM Appraisal, based in Cody, Wyoming, correlated the number of available improved property listings in January 2010 with the total number of improved residential Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-22
property sales in 2009 to evaluate recent housing demand. This correlation suggested that available housing inventory in January 2010 could theoretically meet housing demands or through August 2011 (Fulkerson, 2010). Pedersen Planning Consultants also examined the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices for properties in the vicinity of Powell ranged between $140,000 and $1.0 million. But listing prices TABLE 3-10 for 50 percent of all available properties near AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS Powell fell in the $260,000-$550,000 range VICINITY OF POWELL (Table 3-10). APRIL 2010 Selling Price
3.4.4 Town of Meeteetse
3.4.4.1 Residential Sales and Home Prices Between 2007 and 2009 Similar to Cody and Powell, the purchasers of residential property between 2007 and 2009 demonstrated a dominant preference for improved residential properties (those properties including a home) rather than unimproved residential lots where a new home could be built. Between 2007 and 2009, 15 improved residential properties and five unimproved residential lots were sold (Table 311). Improved residential properties represented 75 percent of the market over the three year period. But, in contrast to both Powell and Cody, the sale of buildable residential lots in Meeteetse represented a considerably larger portion of the market.
Number of Units Available
$140,000 - $150,000 2 $150,000 - $160,000 2 $160,000 - $170,000 0 $170,000 - $180,000 2 $180,000 - $190,000 4 $190,000 - $200,000 1 $200,000 - $210,000 1 $210,000 - $220,000 1 $220,000 - $230,000 1 $230,000 - $240,000 3 $240,000 - $250,000 2 $250,000 - $260,000 0 $260,000 - $270,000 3 $270,000 - $280,000 2 $280,000 - $290,000 1 $290,000 - $300,000 0 $300,000 - $550,000 15 $550,000 – $750,000 1 $750,000 – $1,000,000 1 Total 42 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
TABLE 3-11 SALES OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOTS TOWN OF MEETEETSE, WYOMING 2007-2009 IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Year
Number of Sales
2007 2008 2009
9 4 2
Average Sale Price
$127,128 $ 50,775 $ 232,500
BUILDABLE LOT SALES
Average Floor Space (sq. ft.)
Number of Sales
1,607 1,050 1,967
3 2 0
Average Sale Price
$102,544 $27,500 N/A
Average Lot Size (acres)
54 4 N/A
Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-23
Between 2007 and 2009, the number of improved residential property sales within the municipal boundary of the Town of Meeteetse fell from nine sales in 2007 to two sales in 2009. This represented a decline of about 78 percent. The limited number of improved residential property sales in Meeteetse is primarily influenced by its more remote relocation and distance to jobs, commercial shopping areas, and public services. But similar to other Park County communities, the downturn in the national and regional economies clearly influenced this decline. The size of homes sold during the three-year increased about 22 percent between 2007 and 2009. The average home sold in 2007 contained 1,607 square feet in 2007. But the average size of homes sold in 2008 shrunk to 1,050 square feet and then increased to 1,967 square feet in 2009. The variability in the average size of housing units probably does not signify any significant trend as few new homes have recently been constructed in this community. The average size of the housing units for each year also reflects only several residential sales during the three-year period. The average price of improved residential property was also highly variable between 2007 and 2009. The price of the average home slid from $127,128 in 2007 to $50,775 in 2008, and then rose dramatically to $232,500 in 2009. This change initially suggests that average home prices increased almost 83 percent during the 2007-2009 period. However, a closer examination of these transactions indicates that the wide swing in sale prices reflects significantly different types of residential property. For example, two of the four sales transactions in 2008 included two single-wide mobile homes. The limited number of sales and high variability in average floor space provides a more effective means to examine housing costs. Viewed on a square foot basis, housing sales reflected a $48 to $118 per square foot range between 2007 and 2009. The cost per square foot in 2008 was only $48. The higher end of this range occurred in 2009. Again, a more detailed review of improved residential property sales data for Meeteetse indicates that two of the four housing sales in 2008 included the sale of two single-wide mobile homes. Overall, the market for improved residential properties was limited between 2007 and 2009. Available residential property sales data suggest that this community was impacted more significantly by the national recession than other Park County communities. But another factor constricting the market was the lack of available inventory and available properties that can accommodate future residential expansion. The sale of buildable lots in Meeteetse Trails Estates, now owned by Fred Huppert, president of Huppert Brothers Construction Inc. in Billings, Montana, is constrained by a lack of drainage improvements, collateral, and other related commitments that were outlined in a October 8, 2008 subdivision approval (Town of Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-24
Meeteetse, 2008). The Town of Meeteetse desires the landowner to construct some drainage facilities along existing subdivision roads, as well as related collateral to cover investments the Town made to construct water and sewer improvements within the subdivision (Yockey, 2010). In the absence of discussions with the present owner of the property, the Town of Meeteetse has been unable to discuss potential options with the landowner and various issues remain unresolved. In response, the Town is not issuing building permits for any new residential construction within the subdivision until outstanding issues are resolved. In July 2010, the landowner expressed his willingness to discuss potential options with the Town of Meeteetse (Pedersen, 2010).
3.4.4.2
Available Inventory
Pedersen Planning Consultants reviewed the available inventory of improved residential properties in April 2010 to determine the price range of improved residential properties that were listed on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors MLS. This analysis indicated that list prices ranged between $50,000 and over $500,000. Listing prices were highly variable given the limited inventory and differing property sizes. However, prices for one third of all available properties within the Town of Meeteetse were over $500,000 (Table 3-12). 3.5
AVAILABILITY AND COST OF RENTAL HOUSING
3.5.1 Size of Available Rental Inventory The U.S. Census Bureau documented 2,949 renter-occupied housing units in Park County in April 2000. The extent which available rental housing has expanded or decline during the past decade is not known at the time of this report. Data from the ongoing U.S. Census in 2010 will provide insights to this question as new data is collected and eventually compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. 3.5.2 Cost of Rental Housing
TABLE 3-12 AVAILABLE RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOWN OF MEETEETSE APRIL 2010 Selling Price
Number of Units Available
$50,000 - $100,000 2 $100,000 - $110,000 0 $110,000 - $120,000 0 $120,000 - $130,000 1 $130,000 - $140,000 0 $140,000 - $150,000 0 $150,000 - $160,000 0 $160,000 - $170,000 1 $170,000 - $180,000 0 $180,000 - $190,000 1 $190,000 - $200,000 0 $200,000 - $210,000 1 $210,000 - $220,000 0 $220,000 - $230,000 0 $230,000 - $240,000 1 $240,000 - $250,000 0 $250,000 - $260,000 0 $260,000 - $270,000 0 $270,000 - $280,000 0 $280,000 - $290,000 0 $290,000 - $300,000 0 $300,000 - $500,000 0 Over $500,000 3 Total 10 Source: Northwest Wyoming Board of REALTORS®, 2010.
A Wyoming Cost of Living Index, which is published by the Wyoming Housing Database Partnership, presents average costs for residential apartments, mobile home lots, singlefamily homes and mobile homes. Available data from Fourth Quarter 2000 through the Second Quarter 2009 provides some general insight concerning trends associated with the cost of rental housing (Table 3-13). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-25
TABLE 3-13 AVERAGE RENTAL HOUSING COSTS IN PARK COUNTY SECOND QUARTER 2000 THROUGH SECOND QUARTER 2009 Time Period
Second Quarter 2000 Fourth Quarter 2000 Second Quarter 2001 Fourth Quarter 2001 Second Quarter 2002 Fourth Quarter 2002 Second Quarter 2003 Fourth Quarter 2003 Second Quarter 2004 Fourth Quarter 2004 Second Quarter 2005 Fourth Quarter 2005 Second Quarter 2006 Fourth Quarter 2006 Second Quarter 2007 Fourth Quarter 2007 Second Quarter 2008 Fourth Quarter 2008 Second Quarter 2009
Apartments
$371 392 381 394 387 390 424 413 426 431 439 429 428 459 463 452 470 478 486
Mobile Home Lots $180 162 166 166 169 171 170 170 174 180 180 179 175 175 181 182 186 193 193
Detached Singlefamily Homes $456 498 487 506 509 534 528 558 578 615 574 563 588 581 647 667 690 674 673
Mobile Homes
$312 346 337 367 350 363 399 430 370 406 391 403 393 454 436 453 500 493 522
Source: Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010.
Between Second Quarter 2000 and Second Quarter 2009, the costs for residential apartments rose almost 31 percent, or about 3.4 percent per year. In contrast, the rental of detached single-family homes increased almost 46 percent or just over five percent per year. Mobile home rental costs increased about 67 percent between Second Quarter 2000 and Second Quarter 2009, or approximately seven percent per year. But the rental of mobile home lots rose only seven percent during this period, or just under one percent per year. 3.5.3 Rental Housing Market Trends Park County has a strong rental market. The strong summer/fall rental season generally extends from the months of April through October. The winter rental season occurs from November through March. The demand in the rental housing market is generated from a transitional workforce in selected industries of the Park County economy, seasonal residents and visitors, and a portion of the Northwest College student population in Powell who live off-campus during the school year (Drury, 2010; Evarts, 2010). Available data from the Wyoming Rental Vacancy Survey, which has been completed on a semi-annual basis during the past nine years, indicates that vacancies associated with recent home rentals varied from about one percent during the Q2 2007 to almost 3.5 percent in Q2 2009 (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-26
Discussions with selected property managers in Cody and Powell suggest that the demand for rentals slid somewhat during 2009, but consistently high demand remains from April through October. Consequently, seasonal visitor traffic and residencies in Park County strengthen the long-term marketing of rental properties and the financial viability of the rental housing market of Park County. A stronger rental market also has another consequence. The relocation of some residents to other communities typically re-supplies the local housing inventory when homeowners sell their property to reduce debt and/or apply equity for the purchase of a new home in another community. By exercising the option to rent their residential properties, homeowners in Park County have the opportunity to convert their home to a rental property or rent their property until the housing market becomes more favorable to sellers. As a result, there are, at least, two potential consequences: 1) the expansion of available home inventory probably does not occur to the extent that is experienced by other Wyoming communities; and, 2) home prices tend to hold or increase in value as homeowners, with viable property rental options, are often more able to wait for favorable market prices.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 3-27
CHAPTER FOUR HOUSING DEMANDS AND OTHER HOUSING NEEDS 4.1
INTRODUCTION
The identification of potential housing demands and needs provides a basis for the eventual determination of strategies that can be pursued by community leaders and potential investors to achieve a more balanced housing market. A balanced housing market is a market condition that is characterized by the following: • • •
The majority of residents in a community or regional area are able to own or rent a home that they can afford; The majority of residents live in a home that generally fulfills their criteria and preferences for a decent place to live and is not over crowded; and, Available housing inventories are generally in equilibrium.
Chapter Four presents a series of anticipated housing demands to the year 2020. The anticipated housing demands represent the amount of fee simple and rental housing that will be needed to support the housing needs of new in-migrants coming to Park County in the coming decade. The anticipated housing demands presented in Chapter Four are not a forecast of potential building activity. Rather, the potential demands represent the available housing inventory and total housing production that will be necessary to achieve a balanced housing market during the next decade. 4.2
HOUSING DEMAND MODEL AND RELATED ASSUMPTIONS
Pedersen Planning Consultants developed and applied a statistical model to estimate the potential resident population and housing demands during the coming decade, or between 2010 and 2020. Chapter Two presents the anticipated resident population for the 20102020 period, as well as various assumptions influencing future population growth in Park County during the coming decade. Forecasts of anticipated housing demand presented in Chapter Four consider the type and volume of housing that will be needed to support the housing needs and preferences for both the sales and rental housing markets. Housing forecasts are presented on an annual and cumulative basis to provide an indication of the potential housing units that are needed in each year of the coming decade. The statistical model reflects the use of a variety of assumptions concerning future market preferences. These assumptions were derived from the examination of recent sales data, the December 2009 housing inventory, building permit data, as well as discussions with real estate brokers, property managers, and local real estate developers. The specific assumptions related to the sales and rental housing markets, senior housing markets, as well as lower income households are presented in sections 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-1
4.3
HOME SALES MARKET
4.3.1 Housing Preferences
4.3.1.1
Detached Single-Family Homes
During the next decade, new jobs in various industries that make up the Park County economy will gradually expand the size of Park County’s workforce and resident population. These workers and their dependents will predominantly prefer to reside in a single-family home with a garage, as well as yard that can accommodate a play area for children, pets, gardens, and some storage area for household items and recreational equipment. Local real estate brokers point out that most first-time buyers new to the real estate market in Park County often possess a dream of owning residential property that has considerably more open space than where they relocated from.
4.3.1.2
Attached Single-Family Homes
A growing demand for attached single-family homes, e.g., townhomes and duplexes, is expected during the next decade. Attached single-family housing is somewhat less expensive to build as residential developers can achieve a greater housing density on a smaller lot, as well as construct common walls to that often help reduce construction costs. Attached single-family homes are expected to be particularly attractive to younger families seeking to afford a new home, as well as older residents desiring a residential property with less site maintenance responsibilities.
4.3.1.3
Mobile Homes
Existing mobile homes will comprise a limited segment of the future sales market. Some incoming workers and their dependents, which have poor credit or incomes that do not enable the purchase of other single-family homes in Park County, will seek the purchase of older mobile homes that are located in selected areas of Park County. For example, portions of east Cody and the south side of Powell contain pockets of older mobile homes. 4.3.2 Demand for Home Purchase Available residential sales data for 2007, 2008, and 2009 indicate that 80 percent of all residential sales in Park County included the purchase of improved residential property. During the next decade, the primary housing demand in Park County will continue to be for the purchase of improved residential properties containing an existing or new singlefamily home. The demand for single-family homes will continue to include a combination of detached and attached single-family housing, as well as mobile homes. The achievement of a balanced housing market is partially dependent upon bringing housing supply and demand in equilibrium. The future re-sale of existing homes represents an important part of that equation. Although, the strong rental market in Park County limits the replenishment of local housing inventories as some homeowners place Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-2
their vacated properties into the rental market until home values reach a desired price level in the home sale market. New home construction is needed to meet the demands and buyer preferences that are not met via the home re-sale market. New homes will primarily be built on residential lots within existing and future residential subdivisions. Secondarily, some older, deteriorating homes will need to be replaced with newly constructed homes on the same property. The extent of need for new home construction is somewhat predictable through the examination of anticipated population migration trends, building permit records, as well as home occupancy and housing age characteristics. During the next decade, the overall home sales market demand in Park County represents a need for about 4,081 housing units. The type and extent of demand for home purchases is expected to vary considerably between the City of Cody, City of Powell, Town of Meeteetse and the unincorporated area of Park County. The anticipated trends in these communities are discussed more fully in the following paragraphs.
4.3.2.1
City of Cody
The demand for new home purchases in Cody will primarily be generated by persons coming to new jobs in the vicinity of Cody. Secondarily, the community will also continue to attract persons who are nearing or in their retirement years. Cody is the economic, political, and commercial center of Park County. The community is characterized by a more diversified housing inventory and possesses a variety of recreational opportunities. For this reason, Cody will attract the largest share of the overall demand for home purchases. Most incoming workers will be seeking to purchase an improved residential property that contains an existing home or a residential lot where a new home can be constructed. Between 2010 and 2020, the overall demand for home purchases in the City of Cody is expected to include approximately 1,335 housing units (Table 4-1). It is anticipated that the home re-sale market will likely provide the housing necessary to support roughly 90 percent of the total demand for home purchases. The remaining 10 percent of housing demand is expected to be met through new home construction. This assumption is based, in part, upon a correlation of building permits for new residential construction with the number of existing homes sold between 2007 and 2009. Primary demand is anticipated for detached single-family homes and, secondarily, from attached family homes and mobile homes (Table 4-1). General observations of the housing stock during the December 2009 inventory and a review of housing age characteristics in April 2000 suggest that a limited housing demand will also be generated via the gradual, replacement of about of roughly 99 older homes in the community that presently are over 50 years in age.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-3
4.3.2.2 City of Powell The demand for new home purchases in Powell will primarily be derived from incoming workers that secure jobs in the vicinity of both Powell and Cody. Powell is expected secure a significant portion of the overall demand for home purchases since the community contains diversified commercial and public services and is the home of Northwest College. Perhaps more importantly, housing in Powell is typically 30 percent less than the values of homes in Cody. Consequently, Powell will likely draw a proportion of new incoming residents who are concerned with the affordability of housing or attracted to a smaller community. It is anticipated that the overall demand for housing purchases between 2010 and 2020 will include about 749 housing units in the City of Powell (Table 4-2). Home re-sales are expected to comprise about 90 percent of the home purchases needed to support future in-migration to the community. Available housing sales data and residential building permit information suggest that the remaining demand will need to be met through the construction of roughly 283 new homes in Powell.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-4
TABLE 4-2 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND CITY OF POWELL 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached SingleFamily Homes
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
16 26 30 36 28 40 46 53 41 45 52 415
Home Re-Sale Market Attached SinglePotential Family Home Mobile Homes 2 Homes Re-Sales
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 18
1 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 3 4 4 33
18 29 34 41 32 45 52 60 46 51 58 466
Detached SingleFamily Homes
5 7 9 10 8 11 13 15 12 13 15 118
New Home Market Attached Singlefamily Mobile Replacement Homes 2 Homes Homes 3
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 154
Total New Homes
Total Home Sales Demand
1
4
19 22 23 25 23 27 28 31 27 28 30 283
37 51 57 66 55 72 80 91 73 79 88 749
Notes: 1) Total home sales market includes anticipated homes sought by incoming workers, as well as home replacement needs. 2) Attached single-family homes include two adjoining single-family homes with a common wall. 3) Replacement homes are older homes over 50 years of age that are deteriorating and not suitable for rehabilitation. 4) Total home sales demand includes potential resale homes and new home sales. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
The primary demand will be for the purchase of detached single-family homes. At the same time, rising home construction costs will eventually lead to the development of a greater number of attached housing units even though community preferences will likely remain for a detached single-family home. The sale and purchase of mobile homes will also comprise a smaller segment of the home purchase market which cannot afford the purchase of an existing stick-built home in the community. Observations from the December 2009 housing inventory and available housing age information from the 2000 Census indicate that additional home purchase demand will be generated from the gradual replacement of a portion of the homes over 50 years of age. This demand is expected to include the construction of roughly 154 new housing units during the coming decade.
4.3.2.3 Town of Meeteetse The Town of Meeteetse will also experience some demand for home purchases in the coming decade. The demand will primarily come from incoming workers and their dependents who will be seeking a smaller community away from the larger communities of Cody and Powell. These potential homebuyers will more likely be working for the oil or transportation industries. The overall demand for home purchases between 2010 and 2020 is expected to include approximately 78 housing units in the Town of Meeteetse (Table 4-3). The re-sale of existing homes will probably meet about 90 percent of this demand. The remaining demand for home purchases will likely be derived from new home construction. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-5
TABLE 4-3 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND TOWN OF MEETEETSE 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units) Home Re-Sale Market
Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
New Home Market
Detached Attached Detached Attached Single Single ReplaceTotal Potential Single Single Family Family ment New Family Mobile Home Re- Family Mobile Homes 2 Homes Homes 3 Homes Homes 2 Homes Homes Homes Sales 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 1 0 0 2 3 5 0 1 6 1 0 0 2 3 4 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 5 1 0 0 2 3 5 0 1 6 1 0 0 2 3
43
0
8
51
5
0
0
22
27
1
Total Home Sales Demand 4
4 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 78
Notes: 1. Total home sales market includes anticipated homes sought by incoming workers, as well as home replacement needs. 2. Attached single family homes includes two adjoining single family homes with a common wall. 3. Replacement homes are older homes over 50 years of age that are deteriorating and not suitable for rehabilitation. 4.Total home sales demand includes potential resale homes and new home sales. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
The demand for new home construction will also be generated by the need to replace various older homes in the community. Observations from the December 2009 housing inventory and available housing age information suggest that housing replacement needs may include, at least, 22 homes between 2010 and 2020.
4.3.2.4 Unincorporated Area of Park County The demand for home purchases in the unincorporated area of Park County will be led by more affluent workers desiring to live in a more rural setting in the vicinity of Cody and Powell. Second home buyers seeking a seasonal residence in Park County will also continue to generate considerable demand for home purchases in the unincorporated area. Rural residential housing near Clark
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-6
During the next decade, it is anticipated that the overall demand for home purchases in the unincorporated area of Park County will include roughly 1,919 housing units (Table 44). The resale of existing homes is expected to comprise about 90 percent of this demand. New home construction will address the remainder of this demand. It is estimated that some 55 homes will need replacement due to age or other facility deterioration. This is only an estimate as the December 2009 inventory did not include the documentation of housing in the unincorporated area. TABLE 4-4 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND UNINCORPORATED PARK COUNTY 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units) Home Re-Sale Market
Year
Detached Single Family Homes
Attached Single Family Homes 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
55 88 105 125 99 139 161 184 141 155 175 1,425
7 10 12 15 12 16 19 22 17 18 21 169
New Home Market
Mobile Homes
Potential Home Re-Sales
Detached Single Family Homes
Attached Single Family Homes 2
Mobile Homes
Replacement Homes 3
3 6 6 7 5 8 9 10 8 9 10 83
65 104 123 147 116 163 189 216 166 182 206 1,677
6 10 12 14 11 15 18 20 16 17 19 158
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 19
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 55
Total New Homes
12 17 19 21 18 23 26 29 23 25 28 242
1
Total Home Sales Demand
4
77 121 142 168 134 186 215 245 189 207 234 1,919
Notes: 1) Total home sales market includes anticipated homes sought by incoming workers, as well as home replacement needs. 2) Attached single family homes includes two adjoining single family homes with a common wall.3) Replacement homes are older homes over 50 years of age that are deteriorating and not suitable for rehabilitation. 4) Total home sales demand includes potential resale homes and new home sales. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
4.4
RENTAL MARKET
4.4.1 Market Preferences
4.4.1.1
Single-Family Homes
Detached and attached single-family homes will likely continue to provide a significant proportion of homes in the rental market. Property management representatives indicate that few vacancies are available from April through October as the rental market accommodates a combination of short-term professionals and technical personnel such as doctors and nurses, seasonal residents, Northwest College students, and lower income workers. Aside from a healthy demand, detached single-family homes and townhomes draw higher rental revenues that other types of available rental housing in Park County. In Second Quarter 2009, the average rental for a single-family home in Park County was about $673 per month (Western Economic Services, 2008). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-7
4.4.1.2
Apartments
Residential apartments will also continue to be an attractive housing option for the same range of individuals preferring single-family homes. Seasonal residents represent one exception; they typically prefer and can afford a more costly single-family home rental. Residential apartments offer the convenience of no site maintenance. However, laundry facilities are sometimes provided only in common space areas rather than each housing unit. Somewhat less convenience and privacy associated with an apartment rental is usually offset by a lower rental cost. In Second Quarter 2009, the average apartment rental cost approximately $486 per month (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010).
4.4.1.3 Mobile Homes Mobile homes are a desirable option to many households with lower incomes. While these homes are not necessarily a preference, they are often the only realistic option given the rental costs associated with single-family rental housing and the availability of apartment rental units. Otherwise, the average mobile home rental in Second Quarter 2009 was $522 (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). 4.4.2
Demand for Rental Housing
4.4.2.1 Cody During the coming decade, about 24 percent of the total housing demand in Cody is expected to be for rental housing. This translates into a demand for approximately 411 rental housing units (Table 45). It is anticipated that single-family homes will capture roughly 45 percent of Cody’s rental housing market. A similar proportion of the market will likely be served by residential apartments. Mobile homes and mobile home lots will probably provide housing opportunities for approximately 10 percent of Cody’s rental housing market.
Park County Housing Assessment
TABLE 4-5 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND CITY OF CODY 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached Single Family Homes
Apartments
Townhomes
Mobile Home
Total Rental Housing Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
5 8 9 11 8 12 14 16 12 14 15 124
6 10 12 14 11 16 18 21 16 18 20 162
2 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 43
3 5 6 7 6 8 9 11 8 9 10 82
16 26 30 36 28 40 46 53 40 46 50 411
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-8
The rental housing market is expected to remain strong during the next 10 years. The market will continue to be driven by seasonal visitors between April and October, professional and technical personnel working in the vicinity of Cody during short and medium term assignments, as well as personnel working in lower income jobs associated with accommodations and food services, eating and drinking establishments, and retail trade. New incoming workers to Cody will also be seeking short-term rentals as they initially relocate from other communities and begin their search for a desirable home purchase. One property manager working in Cody indicates that there is considerable demand for larger single-family homes containing, at least, three bedrooms. Much of the rental housing inventory includes one and two-bedroom units.
4.4.2.2
Powell
Between 2010 and 2020, rental housing is expected to represent approximately 35 percent of the total housing demand for Powell, or about 398 housing units (Table 4-6). Students at Northwest College will represent the primary rental market. It is anticipated that students residing in Northwest College dormitories and privately owned single-family homes and apartments will capture roughly 75 percent of Powell’s rental housing market. Retirees and lower income residents will probably represent the remaining rental housing market.
4.4.2.3
Meeteetse
TABLE 4-6 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND CITY OF POWELL 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached SingleFamily Homes
Apartments
Townhomes
Mobile Homes
Total Rental Housing Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
2 2 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 41
11 17 20 25 20 27 32 36 27 30 34 279
2 4 4 5 4 6 7 8 6 6 7 59
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 19
16 24 28 36 28 39 46 52 39 42 48 398
The demand for rental housing in Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010. Meeteetse expected to include about eight rental housing units during the coming decade (Table 4-7)). Rental housing demands are likely to represent not more than nine percent of Meeteetse’s total housing demand. The primary market is expected to be for lower income residents and some retirees. Rental housing opportunities will probably be limited to the continued availability of several mobile homes and mobile home lots, as well as a few single-family home rentals.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-9
Some additional rental demand might be generated from seasonal residents if some form of rental housing were to be developed in the community. The potential development of a smaller Detached Total condominium complex within a portion Single Rental of the Meeteetse Trails Estates could ApartFamily TownMobile Housing Year ments Homes homes Homes Demand possibly attract some seasonal rentals 2010 0 0 0 0 0 within the community if the former 2011 0 0 0 0 0 golf course and related site 2012 1 0 0 0 1 improvements were completed by the 2013 1 0 0 0 1 developer and approved by the Town 2014 0 0 0 0 0 2015 1 0 0 0 1 of Meeteetse. Outstanding financial 2016 1 0 0 0 1 issues plaguing this subdivision project 2017 1 0 0 0 1 hamper the prospects for the 2018 1 0 0 0 1 development of a condominium 2019 1 0 0 0 1 complex or single-family homes in this 2020 1 0 0 0 1 subdivision. In the absence of an Total 8 0 0 0 8 onsite amenity such as a golf course, Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010. Meeteetse’s distance to other commercial shopping areas, public services, and recreational amenities would not attract a second home market. TABLE 4-7 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND TOWN OF MEETEETSE 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
4.4.2.4
Unincorporated Area of Park County
Demands for rental housing in the unincorporated area of Park County are expected to include about 99 rental housing units, or roughly five percent of the total housing demand for the unincorporated area (Table 4-8). The primary rental market is expected to include seasonal residents who predominantly will live in Park County from April through October. Other persons renting homes in the unincorporated area will likely include employed and retired residents desiring a more rural lifestyle. Employed residents will likely work in the vicinity of Cody and Powell or operate homebased businesses.
Park County Housing Assessment
TABLE 4-8 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND UNINCORPORATED PARK COUNTY 2010 - 2020 (Number of Housing Units)
Year
Detached Single Family Homes
Apartments
Townhomes
Mobile Homes
Total Rental Housing Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
3 5 6 8 6 8 9 11 9 9 10 84
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10
3 6 7 9 7 9 11 13 11 11 12 99
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-10
It is anticipated that seasonal residents will primarily seek single-family homes. These homes are expected to include a combination of both detached single-family dwellings and townhomes. 4.5
SENIOR HOUSING
4.5.1 Potential Market The potential market for senior housing generally includes persons 65 years of age and older. In April 2000, this age group included 3,740 residents, or about 14.5 percent of Park County’s total population (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). Assuming an estimated 2009 Park County population of 29,548 residents in 2010 and that 14.5 percent of the total county population was 65 years of age or older, the 65 year and older population included about 4,284 persons in 2010. But, managers of local independent living, assisted living, and long term care facilities in Powell and Cody report that most seniors entering these facilities are typically between 75 and 80 years of age. Housing needs for seniors are highly variable. Many persons 65 years and older live independently and enjoy very active and productive lives, often well into their 80s and 90s. In contrast, others with disabilities or health issues require assisted living or long term care. For this reason, housing needs for seniors generally include a range of housing alternatives: • • • • 4.5.2
Owner or renter-occupied housing for persons requiring no care; Independent living units that provide limited food service; Assisted living for persons requiring some care; and, Long term or nursing home care. Available Senior Housing Facilities
Aside from privately-owned homes, there are several senior housing facilities in Park County. These housing facilities are situated in both Powell and Cody.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-11
4.5.2.1
Cody
In Cody, there are two assisted living facilities and one long term care facility. •
Absaroka Senior Living Community has 46 apartments and is licensed to serve 51 persons. About 40 percent of the residents come from other communities outside of Wyoming and are relatives of persons who live in Cody. Another 40 percent were already residents of Cody when they entered the facility. And roughly 20 percent of Absaroka’s residents came from other communities in Park County or Wyoming (Eldredge, 2010).
Absaroka Senior Living Community typically has an occupancy rate of about 85 percent. Residents entering Absaroka are in their early, mid, and late 80’s. Only a couple of residents are in their 70s. •
Beehive Home of Cody that has 11 living units and can serve up to 12 residents. The age of residents in this facility range between 84 and 98 years of age. Most residents are from Cody. Two residents are from outside of Wyoming and have relatives in Cody. This facility is usually fully occupied (Preuninger, 2010).
•
West Park Long Term Care Center provides long-term care and is licensed to serve 128 residents. However, the facility closed its intermediate and skilled care facilities when Absaroka Senior Living Community was established a few years ago. West Park is presently staffed to serve up to 90 residents. West Park Long Term Care Center typically houses about 80 residents who range between 60 and 100 years of age although most residents are 75 years and older (Kaiser, 2010).
4.5.2.2
Powell
In Powell, senior housing facilities are available for independent living, assisted living, and long term care.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-12
•
Rocky Mountain Manor is a 56 unit independent living facility. Most residents are in their 80s. The rental of these housing units is subsidized by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
•
The Heartland is an assisted living facility that is licensed to serve up to 24 persons. This facility is owned and operated by Powell Valley Health Care, Inc. The age of residents generally includes persons who are in their 80s and 90s. The occupancy of this facility is approximately 95 to 100 percent.
•
Powell Valley Care Center, which is also owned and operated by Powell Valley Health Care, Inc., is a 100-bed, long-term care facility. This facility maintains an occupancy of roughly 95 percent.
4.5.3
4.5.3.1
Senior Housing Demand
Seniors Requiring No Care
In April 2010, there were roughly 310 persons residing in some form of senior housing in Park County (Table 4-9). Assuming that the 65 years and older age group represented about 4,284 persons in 2010, it can be reasonably estimated that just over seven percent of the 65+ age group in Park County, or one percent of the total county population, are residing in local senior housing facilities. Conversely, this indicates that roughly 93 percent of the 65+ population is living independently in owner-occupied homes or rental housing. During the next decade, it is believed that 93 percent of the future senior population will continue to live in owner-occupied or rental housing. These seniors will, in part, be supported and cared for by other family members.
Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-13
TABLE 4-9 SENIOR HOUSING DEMANDS PARK COUNTY 2010 – 2020 Housing Demands (Housing Units)
Year
Anticipated Population
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
29,548 29,883 30,273 30,520 30,925 31,411 31,993 32,431 32,846 33,316 33,829
Anticipated 65 + Population
Seniors Requiring No Care
4,284 4,333 4,390 4,425 4,484 4,555 4,639 4,702 4,763 4,831 4,905
3,974 4,019 4,072 4,105 4,159 4,225 4,303 4,362 4,418 4,481 4,550
Independent Living
56 57 58 58 59 60 61 62 62 63 64
Assisted Living
80 81 82 82 83 85 86 88 89 90 91
Long Term Care
174 176 179 180 182 185 189 191 194 197 200
Total Housing Demand
310 314 318 320 325 330 336 341 345 350 355
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
4.5.3.2
Independent Living
Independent living facilities are typically residential apartment buildings or housing complexes that provide a one bedroom apartment for its residents. Each day, one or more meals are served to residents of the facility. In some cases, other support services are also provided. In 2010, almost 0.2 percent of the total county population resided in independent living facilities in Park County. During the next decade, the demand for independent living facilities is expected to represent the same proportion of the total county population.
4.5.3.3
Assisted Living
Assisted living facilities generally provide a number of separate, living units within a larger complex. Common space areas include, at least, dining facilities and general activity areas for facility residents. Various types of intermediate care are provided to residents on an as-needed basis. When necessary, prescribed medicines are also distributed to facility residents. Assisted living facilities in Park County served about 80 residents in 2010, or about 0.2 percent of the total resident population (Table 4-9). It is anticipated that a similar proportion of residents will need or desire assisted living facilities during the next decade. A greater demand for assisted living facilities probably exists. While private pay assisted living facilities are available in both Powell and Cody, the cost for these living facilities is prohibitive to many seniors. The present use of assisted living facilities is further Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-14
constrained by the fact that Medicare will typically cover qualified health care costs for a senior residing in an assisted living facility, but does not cover the housing cost of seniors residing within an assisted living facility.
4.5.3.4
Long Term Care
Long term care for seniors represents residency in a skilled nursing facility that typically provides living accommodations in private or semi-private rooms. Residents receive skilled and intermediate care. Rehabilitation services, hospice care, and other related services often supplement skilled and intermediate care that is provided by the facility. The two long-term care facilities in Park County served about 175 residents in 2010 (Table 4-9). This represents almost 0.6 percent of the total county population. The same proportion of residents is expected to require long term care in the coming decade. The demand for long-term care may be overstated in one sense because some seniors obtaining long-term care actually need only some limited supervision and assistance. Since Medicare does not cover the cost of seniors residing in assisted living facilities, some seniors with limited incomes often request Medicaid assistance for long term care even though they only require limited supervision and assistance (Kaiser, 2010). Because the cost of accommodations associated with long term care are subsidized jointly by the State of Wyoming and the U.S. Government, seniors with limited incomes are then able to obtain intermediate care. 4.5.4 Senior Housing Needs Senior housing needs are generally influenced by the health of this segment of the population, available support from other family members, lifestyle preferences, and opportunities for social interaction. The relatively high proportion of persons requiring no care suggests that the health of seniors in Park County is generally good and that many seniors are probably supported, to some extent, by younger members of their extended family. In some cases, seniors may also be residing with children and providing some child support for their grandchildren as their parents work. The preceding estimation of senior housing demands presented in section 4.5.3 assumes that the present proportions of demand for independent, assisted living and long term care will generally remain constant. Using this assumption, the future need for senior housing will simply expand with the anticipated increase in resident population. By the year 2020, it is anticipated that demands for senior housing will rise to about 355 housing units (Table 4-9). Existing assisted living and long term care facilities are expected to be able to meet this demand because some additional facility capacity is available, particularly for long term care in Cody. West Park Long Term Care Center in Cody which is licensed to serve up to 128 persons but presently serves an average population of about 80 persons. In contrast, the demand for independent living units will be somewhat greater than what is available at the Rocky Mountain Manor in Powell. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-15
While the capacity of existing assisted living and long term care facilities appear adequate to serve anticipated senior housing demands in the coming decade, there appears to be a need for another senior living complex. In other states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin, senior housing complexes in rural communities often comprise a combination of independent living, assisted living and long term care facilities in one location or complex. As people age, the desire to relocate and re-establish residency in a new place usually diminishes. The maintenance of associations with various family members and health care providers becomes increasingly important. The potential loss of these associations and/or changes in their living environment, e.g., where they live, can be disruptive to both their mental and physical well being. The availability of a housing complex in Park County that enables seniors to conveniently transition from independent to assisted living and, ultimately, to skilled long term care could provide a more attractive setting for those nearing or in their retirement years. 4.6
HOUSING NEEDS FOR LOWER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
4.6.1 General An important consideration associated with housing needs is the future capability of homeowners and renters to obtain housing. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development regards incomes lower income households as those households which earn less than 80 percent of median family income in any given year. Lower income households are further defined into three general categories:
Extremely low income homeowners or renter who earn less than 31 percent of median family income; Very low income homeowners or renters who earn between 31 and 50 percent of median family income; and, Low income homeowners or renters who earn between 51 and 80 percent of median family income.
In order to examine future housing needs of lower income households, Pedersen Planning Consultants correlated its Park County housing demand forecasts for the next decade with the proportional family income estimates published by Western Economic Services for the Wyoming Housing Database Partnership in February 2010. 4.6.2 Home Sales Market In FY 2009, Park County’s median family income was $57,900 (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010). Extremely low income households earned up to $19,100 per year while very low income homeowners had a total annual household income of not more than $29,950. Low income households had earnings not greater than $46,320 per year. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-16
Segregation of the anticipated market demand for home sales in Park County by annual family income ranges (Table 4-10) enables a determination of roughly what proportion of the future market will represent lower income households. In 2010, for example, extremely low income homeowners, which will earn less than 30 percent of median family income, are expected to comprise about 14 homeowners, or about eight percent of the total home sales market. Very low income homeowners, earning between 31 and 50 percent of Park County’s median family income, will probably represent about 12 percent of the home sales market. Another 17 percent of the total home sales market demand is expected to include low income households earning between 51 and 80 percent of median family income. TABLE 4-10 ANTICIPATED HOME SALES MARKET DEMAND BY FAMILY INCOME RANGES 2010 TO 2020
Year
Homeowners by Range of Median Family Income 0-30 % 31-50% 51-80% 81-95% 96+%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
14 39 25 30 24 33 37 43 33 36 41 356
21 57 37 44 35 48 55 62 49 53 60 521
30 80 53 62 50 68 77 88 69 75 85 736
15 41 27 32 26 35 40 46 36 39 44 381
93 248 163 192 155 210 240 273 214 233 263 2,284
Total 174 465 306 360 291 393 450 512 401 436 492 4,278
Notes: 1. < 31% Median Family Income (MFI) represents extremely low income homeowners or renters. 2. 31-50% Median Family Income (MFI) represents very low income homeowners or renters. 3. 51-80% Median Family Income (MFI) comprises low income homeowners or renters. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
On a cumulative basis, it is anticipated that extremely low income, very low income, and low income homeowners will comprise roughly 37 percent of the home sales market. Consequently, the bulk of the market for home sales will include homeowners earning greater than 80 percent of median family income. 4.6.3 Rental Housing Demand In contrast to home buyers, households securing rental housing are expected to comprise a significantly greater proportion of lower income households during the next decade. It is anticipated that extremely low income households will account for about 23 percent of the total rental market demand. Very low income households are expected to comprise approximately 18 percent of the rental market. Almost 24 percent of the rental market will include low income households. On a cumulative basis, lower income households are expected to represent about 65 of the total rental housing market (Table 4-11). Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-17
TABLE 4-11 ANTICIPATED RENTAL HOUSING DEMANDS BY FAMILY INCOME RANGES 2010 TO 2020
Renters by Range of Median Family Income Year
0-30 %
31-50%
51-80%
81-95%
96+%
Total
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
8 13 15 19 15 21 24 28 21 23 26
6 10 12 15 12 16 19 22 17 18 20
8 13 16 20 15 21 25 28 22 24 27
3 4 5 6 5 7 8 9 7 8 9
9 15 18 22 17 24 28 32 24 27 30
35 56 66 82 63 89 104 119 91 100 111
Total
212
168
219
72
244
916
Notes: 1. < 31% Median Family Income (MFI) represents extremely low income homeowners or renters. 2. 31-50% Median Family Income (MFI) represents very low income homeowners or renters. 3. 51-80% Median Family Income (MFI) comprises low income homeowners or renters. Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
4.6.4 Housing Needs for Lower Income Households Housing needs for lower income households boil down to the availability of affordable housing. The purchase of a home in Park County will remain the preferred option for all new incoming residents. But, the availability of affordable rental housing is also essential as lower income households are expected to represent roughly two-thirds of the rental market. It is important to remember that lower income households include persons who are the backbone of various industries in the Park County economy. Many of these workers support industries such as accommodations and food services, construction, retail trade, as well as eating and drinking establishments. Their presence in the community is essential to long-term stability and growth of the Park County workforce. The availability of skilled workforce is a key consideration to companies considering the establishment of a new business, as well as the expansion or relocation of an existing business operation in Park County. In the absence of affordable housing options, some local employers will be required or encouraged to retain workers from countries outside of the United States on a seasonal basis and provide housing for their workers in order to keep their business establishments viable. This workforce option is sometimes important to sustain the profitability of selected businesses. But, unfortunately, incoming transient workforces typically do not build and expand skill levels of the local workforce. Park County Housing Assessment
Final – July 6, 2010
Page 4-18
CHAPTER FIVE RESIDENTIAL LENDING POLICIES AND HOME AFFORDABILITY 5.1
INTRODUCTION
Many Rocky Mountain communities frequently identify the lack of affordable housing as an important housing issue. Unfortunately, the term “affordable” is relative and specific to the housing market under consideration. For example, the price for a home regarded as affordable in Jackson, Wyoming is very different from a comparable home considered affordable in Cody. The difference in affordability reflects significant differences in average household incomes and the price of available housing inventory. Despite regional differences in what constitutes affordable housing, the issue is significant to future business investments because the workforce and their dependents, who support business relocations and expansions, will always require a place to live. Further, if the price of local housing is far beyond the capability of employees to purchase or rent housing, incoming workers will soon be looking for another place to live and work. For this reason, Chapter Five more closely examines the issue of home affordability in Park County. This issue is initially evaluated in the context of general residential lending policies of three local banks in Park County that offer residential mortgages. Loan policies were used to calculate income and debt levels that are generally necessary to qualify for various sizes of residential loans, potential minimum monthly loan amortization payments, and the minimum monthly income that would be required to service the residential loan debt. Subsequently, loan amortization amounts are correlated with the price of existing homes in April 2010 and average monthly income to gain some insight concerning how affordable available housing is to the anticipated residential market.
5.2
SOURCES OF HOME FINANCING IN PARK COUNTY
There are, at least, three financial institutions in Park County that provide and service residential loan mortgages. Various banks in Park County regularly make residential loans to qualified buyers. PPC discussed general residential policies with representatives of three local banks to gain a better understanding of residential loan opportunities and related residential lending policies. These banks included First National Bank and Trust, Pinnacle Bank, and Wells Fargo.
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5.3
RESIDENTIAL LOAN POLICIES
5.3.1 General Local banks in Park County primarily make conventional residential loans. Most of the conventional loans made by local banks ultimately are sold on the secondary home market. Loan qualification requirements vary somewhat between local banks. But, as always, loan qualification is dependent upon various considerations such as the desired length of loan amortization, the size of the down payment, the debt the potential borrower is already carrying and will carry with the new loan, income of the borrower, and their credit score. 5.3.2 Debt Ratios Acceptable debt ratios used by local banks vary. Local banks want to see that anticipated housing expenses will not exceed more than 29 percent of an applicant’s monthly income. Overall loan obligation ratios typically range between 41 and 45 percent (Westerhold, 2010). For conventional loans, these ratios vary somewhat from bank to bank, but more significant variations in lending criteria lie in the lending guidelines associated with various home loan programs that are offered by each bank. 5.3.3 Credit Scores Local bank representatives indicate that residential loan applicants need a credit score of about 720-740 for conventional loans that will include a five percent down payment (Westerhold, 2010). In contrast, a credit score of 620 will suffice for FHA, USDA Rural Development, and VA loan programs (Bunn, 2010). 5.3.4 Interest Rates In March 2010, local banks in Park County were offering 30-year, conventional loans at a rate of approximately five percent. But, local bank representatives expect that home mortgage interest rates will likely rise to, at least, six percent by the end of 2010 (Bunn, 2010). 5.4
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
Many persons seeking residential mortgages in Park County are first time home buyers. In March 2010, first time homebuyers, or persons who have not owned a home during the past three years, could obtain 100 percent financing at an interest rate of 4.75 percent. This lending opportunity is available from local banks via a first time home buyer program offered by the Wyoming Community Development Agency (WCDA). The price of an existing or new home cannot exceed $236,000 (Bunn, 2010). Eligible borrowers can earn up to $63,900 for one and two person households and $73,400 for households comprising three or more persons (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). Park County Housing Assessment
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Other lending opportunities for first time homebuyers include U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development loans, and Veterans Administration (VA) loans. Each of these programs offers 100 percent financing to first time homebuyers. 5.5
BRIDGE LOANS
At least one local bank in Park County formerly provided bridge loans to new, incoming residents who had out-of-state home on the market and wanted to purchase a new home in Park County. The out-of-state properties were used as collateral for the new loan. But, First National Bank and Trust in Cody no longer provides this type of financing due to uncertainties of property values in other regional markets in the United States (Bunn, 2010). 5.6 5.6.1
AFFORDABILITY OF IMPROVED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY Affordability of Home Purchases
As stated earlier, financial institutions such as banks regularly review residential loan applications using various lending criteria (see Section 5.3). These and other criteria influence the ability of consumers to purchase a new home. The application of these criteria to potential residential loan amounts also enables the determination of monthly income and debt levels that financial institutions may require for various sizes of residential loans (Table 5-1). When this information is correlated with available industry income data and the price of available housing inventory, the capability of local residents to purchase residential property becomes clearer. For example, the average price of home in the City of Powell in 2009 was $189,597. When viewed in the context of debt and income levels desired by banks and other financial institutions, a conventional mortgage for a Powell home valued at roughly $190,000 would require a borrower to have a monthly income of roughly $4,776 (Table 51), or annual income of about $57,312. This assumes a 30-year loan amortization period at a loan rate of 6.0 percent, as well as a five percent down payment. The average price of a home in the City of Cody was $248,036 in 2009. A conventional mortgage for a $250,000 home would require a borrower to have a monthly income of roughly $6,284 (Table 5-1), or an annual income of about $75,408. In First Quarter 2009, the average monthly wage in Park County economy was $2,936 which equates to annual income of about $35,232. The only industries exceeding or nearing the monthly income of $4,776 for a $189,000 loan included persons working in mining ($9,405), utilities ($4,404) and federal government ($4,183). Only persons working in the mining industry earn an average income that exceeds the monthly income requirement of $6,284 for a $250,000 home. The average monthly wage of workers in all other industries was considerably under the monthly income of roughly $4,776. Park County Housing Assessment
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Consequently, higher income workers and two earner income households will likely continue to be the segments of the housing market that can qualify for the purchase of a home in either Powell or Cody. Available data from the 2000 Census indicates that two earner income households represented about 55 percent of all married couple families in Park County, or about 38 percent of all households in Park County. If this statistic remains relatively close to employment trends in 2010, it suggests that about 38 percent of all households in Park County would likely qualify for a new home if they had a favorable credit rating and funds available to support down payment requirements. TABLE 5-1 INCOME AND DEBT LEVELS DESIRED BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR CONVENTIONAL RESIDENTIAL LOANS
Selling Price
$100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 $170,000 $180,000 $190,000 $200,000 $210,000 $220,000 $230,000 $240,000 $250,000 $260,000 $270,000 $280,000 $290,000 $300,000
Down Payment
$5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 $9,500 $10,000 $10,500 $11,000 $11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000
Loan Amount
$95,000 $104,500 $114,000 $123,500 $133,000 $142,500 $152,000 $161,500 $171,000 $180,500 $190,000 $199,500 $209,000 $218,500 $228,000 $237,500 $247,000 $256,500 $266,000 $275,500 $285,000
Principal & Interest
$570 $627 $683 $740 $797 $854 $911 $968 $1,025 $1,082 $1,139 $1,196 $1,253 $1,310 $1,367 $1,424 $1,481 $1,538 $1,595 $1,652 $1,709
Monthly Taxes
Monthly Hazard Insurance
$58 $64 $70 $76 $82 $88 $93 $99 $105 $111 $117 $123 $128 $134 $140 $146 $152 $158 $163 $169 $175
$35 $39 $42 $46 $49 $53 $56 $60 $63 $67 $70 $74 $77 $81 $84 $88 $91 $95 $98 $102 $105
Monthly Mortgage Insurance
$66 $73 $79 $86 $92 $99 $106 $112 $119 $126 $132 $139 $145 $152 $159 $165 $172 $178 $185 $192 $198
Total Monthly Mortgage Payment
$729 $802 $875 $948 $1,021 $1,093 $1,166 $1,239 $1,312 $1,385 $1,458 $1,531 $1,604 $1,677 $1,750 $1,822 $1,895 $1,968 $2,041 $2,114 $2,187
Minimum Monthly Income to Service Debt
$2,514 $2,765 $3,016 $3,268 $3,519 $3,771 $4,022 $4,273 $4,525 $4,776 $5,027 $5,279 $5,530 $5,782 $6,033 $6,284 $6,536 $6,787 $7,038 $7,290 $7,541
Note: In the development of these estimates, Pedersen Planning Consultants assumed that a prospective borrowers with good credit would apply for a conventional 30-year loan at an average of 6 percent interest with an average of 5 percent down payment. A total debt expense ratio of 29 percent were assumed for the calculation of each loan amount. Local banks and financial institutions offer a wide variety of loan options and consider many other factors during their evaluation of residential loans. Consequently, these estimates do not necessarily reflect specific loan opportunities that may be available from local financial institutions in Park County. Source: www.Mortgage101.com, 2010; and Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
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5.6.2 Affordability of Rental Housing The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development also views the affordability in the context of a consumer’s ability to pay. More specifically, the ability to pay is considered in the context of a maximum proportion of household income. “The generally accepted definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than
30 percent of its annual income on housing. Families who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing area considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2007). The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development uses this criteria to determine eligibility standards for various federal housing programs associated with the purchase, rehabilitation, and rental of housing units. If the 30 percent criteria is applied to Park County’s average monthly wage of $2,936 in First Quarter 2009, affordable home rentals would desirably not exceed $881 per month. Average monthly rental housing costs in Second Quarter 2009 ranged from $673 for detached single-family homes, $522 for mobile homes, $486 for apartments, and $193 for mobile home lots (Wyoming Community Development Authority, 2010). Consequently, rental housing appears to be affordable to most of the employed workforce in Park County. A closer examination of the First Quarter 2009 monthly wage and employment data (Table 5-2) indicates that persons employed in several industries in the Park County economy could afford some form of rental housing, but there choices become more limited as they theoretically cannot afford the average rental price for a detached single-family home. These industries include the following: • • • • • • • •
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting Retail Trade Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Administrative and Waste Services Educational Services Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
These industries account for about one-third of the employed labor force in the First Quarter 2009. Although it is important to note that not all employees working in these industries earned incomes which were equal to or less than the average monthly income. More significantly, those employed in educational services, as well as accommodations and food services, can only afford the rental of a mobile home lot. Those working in these industries have very limited rental housing opportunities unless they reside in a two earner income household. Park County Housing Assessment
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TABLE 5-2 AFFORDABILITY OF RENTAL HOUSING TO THE EMPLOYED WORKFORCE FIRST QUARTER 2009
Total: Park County
Average Monthly Employment 12,198
Average Monthly Wages $2,936
30% of Monthly Wages $881
Private Sector Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Administrative & Waste Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration
8,985 233 531 73 950 493 219 1,629 232 193 366 144 429 11 219 80 1,320 216 1,382 263
$2,823 $2,226 $9,405 $4,404 $2,892 $2,849 $3,689 $1,983 $2,892 $2,516 $3,507 $1,689 $3,546 $7,188 $1,736 $961 $3,027 $2,204 $1,178 $1,892
$847 $668 $2,822 $1,321 $868 $855 $1,107 $595 $868 $755 $752 $507 $1,064 $2,156 $521 $288 $908 $661 $353 $568
Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government
3,213 618 191 2,404
$3,260 $4,183 $3,776 $2,983
$978 $1,255 $1,133 $895
Notes: 1.
2.
30% of monthly wages is based upon housing affordability criteria established by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development for various federal housing programs associated with the purchase, rehabilitation, and rental of housing units. Average monthly income levels highlighted in red signify industries where employees cannot afford the rental of a detached single-family home.
Sources: Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning, 2010; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010; Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
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CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND HOUSING STRATEGIES 6.1
INTRODUCTION
The conclusions and housing strategies presented in Chapter Six are a reflection of what was learned concerning relevant demographic and economic trends (Chapter Two), existing housing characteristics (Chapter Three), housing demands and needs (Chapter Four), the affordability of housing (Chapter Five), as well as housing issues and development opportunities. As stated earlier, local real estate brokers, residential mortgage lenders, developers, non-profit housing organizations, and appropriate municipal government representatives provided considerable insights to these analyses. In Chapter Six, conclusions are accompanied with one or more strategies and related tasks that can be pursued to address existing housing issues and potential housing development opportunities. Each strategy assigns the responsibility for implementation to specific nonprofit organizations and public agencies that are associated with the financing, development, sale, and rental of housing in Park County. The strategies presented in Chapter Six represent a starting point for addressing housing issues and development opportunities. It is envisioned that these strategies would be refined and expanded on an annual basis to keep the community focused upon the sustaining the availability of a more balanced housing market. 6.2
FUTURE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT STRATEGIES
Forward Cody represents an attractive entity to coordinate and promote the implementation of these strategies in light of its focus to stimulate and expand private investment, job creation, and related economic development in Park County. The availability of housing is an essential component of community development that is necessary to attract and sustain a skilled workforce and encourage future private investments. A matrix evaluation sheet is presented in Appendix A. It is recommended that the Park County Housing Committee use this planning tool to conveniently assign priorities for future implementation of the recommended housing strategies presented in Chapter Six. PPC has successfully applied this method of prioritization to a wide variety of projects where a “blue ribbon committee” is available to help guide the prioritization of recommended strategies. Specific instructions concerning how to carry out the matrix evaluation process are presented in Appendix A. An important facet of the evaluation process is the individual rating of housing objectives by each member of the Housing Committee. This approach enables a diversified decision-making body to effectively arrive at a representative consensus of the group. Conversely, the process essentially eliminates long discussions concerning priorities with one or more persons attempting to convince other members of the decision-making group. Park County Housing Assessment
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6.3
DEMAND FOR HOUSING
6.3.1 Conclusions During the next decade, Park County is expected to experience some nominal economic expansion that will continue to generate a reasonable demand. The demand will primarily be derived from: • •
incoming employees of existing and new businesses and their dependents; and, persons seeking a permanent home for retirement.
On a cumulative basis, it is anticipated that there will be demand for roughly 4,997 housing units (Table 6-1). Most of the demand during the next decade will be for the purchase of an existing or new home. The greatest demand will be for homes in the unincorporated area because of a strong market preference for open space and other rural values. TABLE 6-1 CUMULATIVE HOUSING DEMANDS FOR PARK COUNTY 2010-2020 Type of Demand
Home Purchase Rental Total
City of Cody
1,335 411 1,746
City of Powell
749 398 1,147
Town of Meeteetse
Unincorporated Area
78 8 86
1,919 99 2,018
Total
4,081 916 4,997
Source: Pedersen Planning Consultants, 2010.
But, significant portions of the overall demand for home purchases will also be evident in the City of Cody and City of Powell. Both of these communities contain concentrated commercial and light industrial areas, public facilities, privately-owned community facilities, a diversified housing inventory, and established residential neighborhoods. These communities will particularly be attractive to those in the employed workforce, and those households with children. Rental housing demands will predominantly be for rental housing in the City of Cody and City of Powell where most of the employed workforce resides and where most jobs in the Park County economy are based. Real estate brokerages in Park County will continue to be the primary agent for the marketing and sale of improved residential properties. Local residential developers and home building contractors can be expected to meet the demand for new homes through the development of new residential subdivisions, the sale of residential lots, and the related construction of new home structures. The normal ebb and flow of births and deaths, personal and business relocations, and retirement will continue to generate an inventory of existing homes in Park County’s real estate market. Available inventory in an attractive living environment such as Park County, as well as related sales and commission opportunities, will sustain the interest and commitment of a cadre of professional real estate brokers to facilitate the sale of existing and new homes, as well as unimproved residential lots. Park County Housing Assessment
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Perhaps more problematic, however, is the interest of real estate developers to develop new residential subdivisions where new homes can be developed and marketed. Residential developers are typically pleased to pursue new residential development projects where there is an opportunity to develop and market an attractive project and obtain a reasonable return-on-investment. However, discussions with several local real estate developers indicate that there is frustration with municipal governmental representatives who review and approve land development applications. Whether or not the frustrations of local real estate developers are justified, their past experiences with some local governmental officials represent a potential deterrent to future investment. Their participation in future residential subdivision development is essential as anticipated housing demands for new homes are not likely to draw significant interest from larger residential developer companies based in other regional areas of Wyoming and Montana. The Town of Meeteetse has an opportunity to accommodate some future residential expansion. This opportunity is the development of the Meeteetse Trails Estates subdivision and related golf course project that was to be built on the southeast side of Meeteetse. The original developer of this project failed to meet his commitment for various infrastructure improvements that were tied to subdivision approval. This forced the Town of Meeteetse to deny building permit applications from those who had purchased some lots in the subdivision. Huppert Brothers Construction, Inc., which had completed significant site improvements for the original developer, eventually gained ownership of the subdivision property since the contractor had not been paid for previous work completed on the subdivision project. This fate of this project is uncertain since the Town of Meeteetse desires to have infrastructure improvements completed. Meanwhile, the new owner of the property is left with little motivation as it faces additional costs to complete development of the original subdivision project. The resolution of the issue will require some constructive negotiations and concessions between the new property owner and the Meeteetse Town Council. 6.3.2
Strategies
Objective 1: Encourage Real Estate Developers to Invest In Future Residential Development Projects Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 1A: Local real estate developers, building contractors, real estate brokers, and mortgage lenders will be invited to attend a presentation concerning the findings of the Park County Housing Assessment. During the meeting, housing demands outlined in the Park County Housing Assessment will be identified along with recommended strategies for addressing housing issues and development opportunities. Responsibility for Implementation:
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Objective 2: Expand Residential Expansion Opportunities in Meeteetse Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 2A: Organize a meeting with the present owner of the Meeteetse Trails subdivision who inherited the property from the original subdivision developer. An experienced professional familiar with zoning and subdivision regulations and real estate development will be retained to facilitate this meeting. The facilitator, which should have no ties to either the property owner or the Town of Meeteetse, will initially identify the purpose of the project and review the history of the subdivision project. This presentation will be based upon separate discussions with both the owner of the subdivision and appropriate municipal officials. Subsequently, the facilitator will lead a discussion concerning how the subdivision project might be completed and residential lots sold. This discussion will, in part, focus upon the resolution of infrastructure improvements with the present owner of the subdivision, as well as potential concessions that might be given by the Town of Meeteetse to provide the owner with some motivation to complete and market the project. Both the Town of Meeteetse and the developer will be requested to come to the meeting with an open mind to explore and determine feasible options for resolving the needs of both parties. Responsibility for Implementation: Forward Cody, owner of the Meeteetse Trails subdivision, Meeteetse Town Council, Meeteetse Public Works director, and facilitator retained by Forward Cody 6.4
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
6.4.1 Conclusions Home Purchases Home sales prices in Park County are generally affordable to married couple households where both husband and wife work. These two-income earner households comprise approximately 55 percent of all married couple families or about 38 percent of all households in Park County (see Chapter Five). Single wage earner households unless have a considerably tougher time affording the purchase of an existing or new home in Park County unless they earn a considerably higher income from their place of employment. Single wage earners able to qualify for home loans are more likely to be employed in the mining or utility industries, or by the federal government. The affordability of homes in the home sale market is difficult to assess for over half of Park County’s households. The capability of these households to purchase housing is highly variable as some unmarried couple households may share living expenses and be Park County Housing Assessment
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able to qualify for a home loan. Other non-family households may have earnings that are more than sufficient to purchase or rent housing. But average wage data suggests that two income earner households are the more likely candidates for a home purchase in Park County. Rental Housing In contrast, rental housing appears to be affordable to most of the employed workforce in Park County. The correlation of average wages and average rental rates for residential apartments, detached single-family homes, mobile homes and mobile lots indicate that most employed persons can afford one of these four rental options. But single earner households working in several industries in the Park County economy cannot afford the average rental price for a detached single-family home. These industries include: •
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
•
Retail Trade
•
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
•
Administrative and Waste Services
•
Educational Services
•
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
•
Accommodation & Food Services
•
Other Services, except Public Administration
These industries account for about one-third of the employed labor force in the First Quarter 2009. Although it is important to note that not all employees working in these industries earned incomes which were equal to or less than the average monthly income. Single person wage earners employed in educational services, as well as accommodations and food services, face a greater affordability challenge. The average wage in these industries can only afford the rental of a mobile home lot. Efforts of the Private Sector to Provide More Affordable Housing Beyond the data, local real estate developers, contractors, real estate brokers, and bankers already recognize the need for more affordable housing in Park County. Available home inventories already include attached single-family homes and condominiums that are priced significantly less than average home prices in both Cody and Powell. But, somewhat surprisingly, real estate developers and real estate brokers reported that the market has not yet responded strongly to these more affordable home opportunities (Bryan, 2010; Thiel, 2010; and Donley, 2010). The lack of response to the opportunities for more affordable housing is likely due to recent economic downturn and related consumer uncertainties that have slowed consumer motivations for home purchases.
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Despite the slowdown in home sales in 2009, there is a need for more affordable types of housing that can be purchased by a larger proportion of the potential home sales market. For example, Jerry Thiel and Sons Construction, Inc. in Cody recently completed the Heart Mountain Condominium complex in Cody, which contains 12 attractive two-bedroom, twobath units. In April 2010, prices for these condominium units ranged from approximately $125,800 for a third floor condo to about $129,800 for a ground floor unit. The purchase of a $130,000 condo would require a buyer to have an income of, at least, $3,268 per month (Table 5-1). This income level is approximately 11 percent higher than Park County’s average monthly wage of $2,936 in First Quarter 2009.
Heart Mountain Condominiums, two separate kitchen views
The inventory of homes in any real estate market needs to include, in part, a proportion of homes that the average working person can afford. The average monthly wage in the local economy represents a reasonable target for the price of an affordable home purchase. This target can be used by real estate developers and building contractors for the planning of future housing projects. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity and Opportunities for Development of More Self-Help Housing Lower income households in Park County also have the opportunity to pursue the development of a new home via a self-help housing program that is offered by Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity. In the past three years, this program has completed two to three self-help housing projects per year with volunteer crews (Lee, 2010). Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity already has about 30 local organizations supporting their construction efforts. About 500 people have volunteered in the past two years. Applicants to the program must, in part, demonstrate a need, e.g., homelessness or overcrowding in the applicant’s present home. They must live and work in Park County Park County Housing Assessment
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for, at least, six months, be willing to participate in home construction, and have the ability to pay for a new home (Lee, 2010). For example, single-family homes recently completed by Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity are 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath homes containing about 1,050 square feet of floor space. Applicants must be capable of paying 30-year amortization payments for a loan of approximately $100,000 at 0 percent interest, or a monthly payment of about $450 which includes principal, interest, taxes, and insurance. This approach essentially forgives the second mortgage debt over the life of the first mortgage. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity establishes a second mortgage on the property and defers these payments unless the homeowner does not remain in the home. The household income of each applicant must range between 20 and 60 percent of the median income in Park County (Lee, 2010). The median family income for Park County in FY 2009 was $57,900 (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010). Mountain Spirit Subdivision in Cody contains 26 lots. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity has 18 lots left to build on. But, the program needs to construct additional infrastructure and extend New Hope Drive to support the construction of new homes in the subdivision. Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity plans to apply for a federal infrastructure grant to complete these improvements. Infrastructure improvement costs are estimated to be around $250,000. Because of Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity’s experience with self-help housing in Park County, this organization is a logical entity to help package, supervise, and promote construction loans for the U.S. Department of Agriculture Section 502 and 523 Mutual SelfHelp Housing Programs. Under the 523 program, low-income borrowers typically work together under the guidance of a nonprofit public housing entity, e.g., Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity, to build each others’ homes. Under the guidance of an onsite construction supervisor, home building groups perform at least 65 percent of the construction work required to build their homes. In most cases, the grantee also manages the construction loans, develops the building site, provides homeownership training, offers building plans, qualifies the borrower for his/her mortgage and markets the program in the service area (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development Program, 2010). Under USDA’s 502 Mutual Self-Help Housing Loan program, applicants desiring to participate in a self-help housing project must have very low or low incomes as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. As stated earlier, very low income is defined as below 50 percent of the area median income. Low income is between 50 and 80 percent of the area median income. In addition, families applying for these loans must be without adequate housing, able to afford monthly mortgage payments, and unable to obtain financing from other sources. Opportunities for the Redevelopment of Some Mobile Home Rental Areas Some of the mobile home rental areas in Cody and Powell contain older mobile homes that need replacement due to age and/or deterioration. In Cody, for example, there are several mobile home areas that range between two and eight acres in size (Figure 6-1). Given the lack of affordable housing for lower income households, there is a need to Park County Housing Assessment
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© £ ¤ 14
120 U V
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Legend 8 Acres or More 2 to 8 Acres 1 to 2 Acres 1 Acre or Less 120 Railroad US Highway State Highway Municipal Street and Road Cody Municipal Boundary
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Park County Housing Assessement Prepared By:
Pedersen Planning Consultants P O Box 66 Encampment, WY 82325 Phone: 307-327-5434 Web: www.pedersenplanning.com
Potential Mobile Home Redevelopment Areas Cody, Wyoming
Figure 6-1
improve and redevelop selected mobile home rental areas to sustain and expand rental housing opportunities. Since the occupancy of these areas remains high, there is little motivation for owners to consider the replacement of existing, older mobile homes. Owners of mobile home rental areas need to be provided with some incentives to pursue the redevelopment of their rental housing areas with new rental housing. At the present time, the potential redevelopment of some mobile home rental areas is more complex since any redevelopment project would involve changes in municipal zoning and revisions to existing subdivisions. Such projects may need to be reviewed as part of a planned unit development process and a simplified subdivision approval process to encourage future private investment. 6.4.2 Strategies Objective 3: Encourage Development of More Affordable Housing Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 3A: Identify concentrated mobile home rental housing areas in Cody and Powell. Informally discuss potential incentives with landowners of selected mobile home rental housing areas. Subsequently, prepare a set of incentives for consideration by the City of Cody and City of Powell that attempt to encourage the replacement of older mobile home rentals with the development of new residential apartments, the installation of new manufactured homes, and/or the construction of new self-help housing. Relaxed subdivision requirements and revised zoning ordinance provisions should be incorporated into the incentives to facilitate the process for project approvals. Responsibility for Implementation: Cody City Council and Planning and Zoning Commission; Powell City Council and Planning and Zoning Commission; Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity Task 3B: Seek opportunities for participation in the U.S. Department of Agriculture Section 502 and 523 Mutual Self-Help Housing Programs and establish Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity as a local grantee for Park County, the City of Cody and the City of Powell. Clarify and discuss program responsibilities and opportunities with representatives of USDA, Rural Development and Rural Community Assistance Corporation which provides technical assistance to program grantees in the western United States. Responsibility for Implementation: City Council; Powell City Council
Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity; Cody
Task 3C: Prepare and sponsor infrastructure grant requests for the construction of additional infrastructure and the extension of New Hope Drive in the Mountain Spirit Subdivision.
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Responsibility for Implementation: Mountain Spirit Habitat for Humanity; Cody City Council 6.5
SENIOR HOUSING
6.5.1 Conclusions During the next decade, anticipated demands for senior housing appear to be met if the present rates of demand for independent living, assisted living and long term care continue. However, should demands begin to exceed the capacity of existing senior housing and care facilities, potential investors should be encouraged to develop a new senior housing complex that offers a combination of independent, assisted living, and long term care. 6.5.2 Strategies Objective 4: Encourage Future Private Investments For Senior Housing. Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 4A: Monitor senior independent living, assisted living, and long term care facilities on an annual basis. Compare senior housing occupancies with the capacities available at each facility in Powell and Cody. In the event that facility capacities demonstrate saturation, potential investors should be encouraged to develop a new senior housing complex in either Cody or Powell where supporting medical services are readily available and accessible. Responsibility for Implementation: Forward Cody 6.6 6.6.1
STUDENT HOUSING AT NORTHWEST COLLEGE Conclusions
In 2010, fall enrollment at Northwest College included about 1,100 full-time and 800+ part-time students. Northwest College presently accommodates over 50 percent of its total enrollment in on-campus student housing. In both 2008 and 2009, all student housing was leased during the fall semester, but occupancy declined to 75-80 percent in the spring semester. In 2007, student housing occupancy was about 95 percent of total facility capacity. Between 2010 and 2020, it is anticipated that Powell’s rental housing market will include a demand for an additional 398 housing units (Table 4-6). Students residing in Northwest College dormitories and privately owned single-family homes and apartments are expected Park County Housing Assessment
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to capture roughly 75 percent of Powell’s rental housing market. Retirees and lower income residents will probably represent the remaining rental housing market. Northwest College envisions no new campus housing projects at this time. However, some consideration is being given to the potential doubling of some existing housing facilities (Havig, 2010). But, in the face of rising student enrollments, it is likely that Northwest College will need to give serious consideration to the expansion of on-campus student housing during the coming decade. Bridger Hall, a former student housing facility at Northwest College, was lost to fire a few years ago. This site remains vacant and could accommodate a new dorm facility. Instead of attempting to raise capital for new construction via bonds or other financial instruments, Northwest College could privatize future student housing by providing a site for a new dormitory or other type of housing facility to private residential developers. Residential developers would obtain financing for the construction of a new student housing facility, as well as manage the student housing for Northwest College on a contractual basis. This is an option increasingly used by many colleges and universities in the United States. 6.6.2 Strategies Objective 5: Privatize Future Student Housing Facilities at Northwest College Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 5A: Continue to monitor student enrollment trends and the future demand for student housing at Northwest College. When anticipated enrollments begin to suggest the need for additional student housing, prepare a request for proposals to local and regional student housing developers for the financing, construction, operation and maintenance of new student housing facility on the Northwest College campus. Negotiate contractual terms and conditions for facility development, management, operation and maintenance with the selected student housing developer. Monitor and inspect construction work completed. Responsibility for Implementation: Northwest College Registrar’s Office, Director of Residence and Campus Life, and Board of Trustees 6.7
LAND USE REGULATIONS AND COMMUNITY GROWTH POLICIES
6.7.1 Conclusions The regulation of residential development projects is an important tool to help ensure that future residential development maintains public health and safety, and provides a quality living environment. It is equally essential that land use regulations are reasonable and cost-effective to construct, and, ultimately do not discourage private investment. In the absence of balanced land management, limited new residential construction can increase the cost of existing housing as available inventory decreases. Park County Housing Assessment
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Most local real estate developers in any community are more than cognizant of potential areas for future residential expansion, as well as the preferences of local government concerning where future land use expansion should take place. But local government should not assume that all real estate developers are aware of the preferences and plans of local government and the status of planned infrastructure improvements. Consequently, these issues and potential development opportunities should be openly shared to encourage the future development of housing. Zoning and subdivision regulations occasionally pose an unnecessary constraint to investments by real estate developers. The concerns of real estate developers need to be heard and discussed informally with municipal governmental officials to clarify the planning objectives of local government, discuss potential regulatory options, and provide expanded opportunities for housing development. To help heal past disagreements and encourage the investment of local real estate developers in future residential development projects, planning, public works, and building officials from the City of Cody, City of Powell, Town of Meeteetse, and Park County need to work more closely with local real estate developers and eliminate adversarial or strained relationships. Local government needs to more constructively share and communicate with real estate developers the preferences of local government concerning the type and location of future residential expansion. Planning, public works and building officials should also review existing zoning and subdivision regulations with local real estate developers to identify potential revisions that might facilitate more cost-effective development and enable more residential development options without sacrificing the safety, quality, and market appeal of future residential developments. In turn, real estate developers and contractors need to share cost realities associated with their compliance with existing regulations and point out constructive alternatives for accomplishing desired design and construction objectives. 6.7.2 Strategies Objective 6: Remove Unnecessary Regulatory Barriers to Future Real Estate Development Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 6A: Organize and hold a series of meetings between municipal planning, public works, and building officials, and local real estate developers. Separate meetings will be organized for the City of Cody and the City of Powell. Municipal planning and public works officials for the City of Cody and City of Powell will identify preferred areas for future land use expansion, as well as the type of land use expansion envisioned for planned expansion areas. Government officials will also identify planned road, water and sewer improvements envisioned to support future land use expansion and the present schedule for planned improvements. Park County Housing Assessment
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A second phase of the meetings in each community will focus upon the improvement of both zoning and subdivision regulations. Real estate developers and governmental officials will bring desired changes to local zoning ordinances and subdivision regulations for discussion. Revisions will consider, in part, how to make present regulations more cost effective to help reduce the cost of subdivision development without compromising the safety, quality and market appeal of subdivisions. Ultimately, meeting participants will seek consensus on desired revisions and subsequently present the recommended revisions to municipal planning and zoning commissions and city councils for their consideration. Responsibility for Implementation: Forward Cody, City of Cody Public Works Director, City of Cody Planner (when this position is filled), City of Powell Engineer, City of Powell Building Inspector and local real estate developers. Task 6B: Zoning regulations adopted by the City of Powell should incorporate a new mixed residential commercial and residential zoning district that would be applicable to Powell’s downtown area. Under this potential zoning district, landowners would be provided with the opportunity to develop residential housing on the second floor of commercial buildings in its downtown area. This would enable landowners to potentially derive additional income from a small upstairs apartment, as well as ground floor retail. In other situations, an upstairs apartment might also provide housing for lessees or employees of ground floor commercial uses. Ultimately, the incorporation of upstairs housing would help keep commercial investments in the downtown area more financially viable for landowners. Responsibility for Implementation: City of Powell Public Works Director, City of Powell Building Inspector and Powell City Council. 6.8
ADVOCACY OF COMMUNITY HOUSING ISSUES AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
6.8.1
6.8.1.1
Conclusions
Need for a Community Housing Advocate
Future housing needs can, for the most part, be addressed by the constructive efforts of real estate brokers selling existing homes, real estate developers developing new residential subdivisions, contractors building new homes, and local banks financing construction loans for real estate developers and contractors, as well as loans for new home mortgages. But, there are often issues, e.g., land use regulations, that constrain investments that cannot be resolved by actions the local housing industry. The development of affordable housing in Park County is an important issue as a significant proportion of the employed workforce is unable to purchase housing. And in some cases, persons in employed in some industries are hard pressed to locate affordable rental housing. Partnerships of the private sector and public agencies can be used effectively to stimulate private investments for the development of more affordable housing. Park County Housing Assessment
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The establishment of a local housing advocate agency, or community development authority, is needed to spearhead efforts of local government and the private sector to maintain an awareness of housing issues, keep abreast of housing demands, identify potential housing development opportunities, and facilitate the resolution of potential constraints to residential development. If federal funds are eventually sought to support future housing initiatives, federal agencies such as the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, desire local government to have a non-profit or public agency whose focus is, in part, upon the development of housing.
6.8.1.2
Maintaining Awareness of Housing Issues and Opportunities
As community housing assessments are completed, it is tempting to assume that forecasts of anticipated housing demands will remain close to the original forecasts. But many everchanging factors continually influence the demand for housing. For this reason, it is important that relevant data is collected and analyzed, and quantifiable housing demand forecasts are periodically revised. Important information to monitor includes, at least, the following: • • • • • •
Annual housing sales and price trends. Available rental housing and related rental housing costs. The number of annual building permits for new residential construction in Cody, Powell, Meeteetse, and the unincorporated area of Park County. Household income and industry employment data. Anticipated new jobs and jobs lost in the Park County economy. Location of all housing units in Park County.
Relevant information that is presently compiled by several public agencies and non-profit organizations should be collected and reviewed on an annual basis. For example, annual housing sales data is already collected by the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors. Rental housing cost trends are periodically obtained by Western Economic Services for the Wyoming Housing Data Partnership. Building permit data is already documented by the City of Cody Building Official and the City of Powell Building Inspector. Forward Cody regularly tracks the number of potential new jobs that may be established by existing businesses in Park County and investors considering potential business relocations. Pedersen Planning Consultants completed the December 2009 housing inventory for the Park County Assessment. The type and location of all housing in Cody, Powell and Meeteetse was mapped using ArcGIS software. This information should be regularly updated by municipal and county public works departments as authorized new homes are completed. This database would ideally be expanded to include all housing within the unincorporated area of Park County. The annual collection and evaluation of relevant housing information should be used to revise earlier assumptions associated with the Park County housing demand model and update housing demand forecasts. Subsequently, new information should be shared with local appraisers, real estate developers, real estate brokers, building contractors, as well as municipal and county government officials. Even though home financing, housing Park County Housing Assessment
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development, and home sales are competitive in nature, it is important that the local housing industry in Park County has a more comprehensive understanding of local housing needs and potential development opportunities. Using this approach, the community can move forward to address future housing needs in a more timely, cooperative, and costeffective manner. 6.8.2
Strategies
Objective 7: Establish a Community Housing Advocate Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 7A: Establish and organize a community housing agency, which operates either as a non-profit organization or a joint powers board, to spearhead housing initiatives in Park County, as well as the City of Cody, City of Powell, and Town of Meeteetse. Responsibility for Implementation: Park County Board of Commissioners, Cody City Council, Powell City Council, and Meeteetse Town Council Objective 8: Remain Aware of Housing Trends, Demands, and Opportunities Priority _________ (to be determined) Task 8A: Compile relevant housing data on an annual basis. Obtain available data from, at least, Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors, City of Cody Building Official and Director of Public Works, City of Powell Building Inspector and Director of Public Works, American West Realty; and Wyoming Community Development Authority. Use available data to update assumptions associated with the Park County housing demand model and prepare revised housing demand forecasts. Share revised housing demand forecasts with local residential mortgage lenders, appraisers, real estate brokers, and real estate developers to encourage future housing development. Update housing inventory data files developed by Pedersen Planning Consultants for Cody, Powell and Meeteetse using ArcGIS software and available building permit records. Inventory housing in the unincorporated area of Park County and expand database. Monitor the location and number of available residential lots in existing subdivisions that could be developed for new housing. Update the Park County Assessment every three years. Share and discuss housing development trends, constraints and opportunities with representatives of local home mortgage lenders, real estate brokers, appraisers, and real estate developers. Responsibility for Implementation: New Community Housing Authority in cooperation with the City of Powell Building Inspector, Meeteetse Town Clerk, Park County Planning and Zoning Department, City of Cody Building Official, and Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors. Park County Housing Assessment
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APPENDIX A
MATRIX EVALUATION SHEET AND PROCESS TO DETERMINE PRIORITY OF RECOMMENDED HOUSING OBJECTIVES
Process to Determine Priority of Recommended Housing Objectives As discussed in Chapter Six, it is important that priorities be established for the implementation of the recommended housing objectives and related strategies that are presented in Chapter Six. The Park County Housing Committee is a logical group to determine priorities for the future implementation of recommended housing strategies in light of its diversified professional experience in the housing industry, as well as its participation in the Park County Housing Assessment project. The following matrix evaluation sheet is a planning tool that can be used to determine the priority for implementation of each of the recommended housing objectives. To accomplish this, PPC recommends that each Housing Committee member individually rate the importance of each of the housing objectives without prior discussion. This approach enables Committee members to determine a consensus without going through an endless discussion of each housing objective. Each member will be provided with a copy of the matrix evaluation sheet to numerically rate the importance of each housing objective. Each member will assign their numerical scores without discussion with other members of the Housing Committee. Each housing objective will be assigned a score ranging between 0 and 10. A score of 1 suggests a very low priority; conversely, a score of 10 would indicate a very high priority. After all of the matrix evaluation sheets are completed and returned to Forward Cody, cumulative scores will be calculated for each objective. The cumulative score for each objective will be divided by number of persons rating the housing objectives to determine an average score of the Housing Committee. Higher scored planning objectives will indicate greater priority; conversely, lower scored objectives will indicate a lower priority. This convenient process will enable the Housing Committee to establish its own priorities for the implementation of all housing strategies. With the identification of overall priorities, the Housing Committee can use the priority rankings as a basis for determining a more specific schedule for the completion of the strategies and related tasks associated with each housing objective.
MATRIX EVALUATION SCORE SHEET PRIORITY RANKING OF HOUSING OBJECTIVES PARK COUNTY HOUSING ASSESSMENT JULY 2010 Objective No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Housing Objective
Encourage real estate developes to invest in future residential development projects Expand residential expansion opportunities in Meeteetse Encourage development of more affordable housing Encourage future private investments for senior housing Privatize future student housing facilities at Northwest College Remove unnecessary regulatory barriers to future real estate development Establish a Community Housing Advocate Remain aware of housing trends, demands, and opportunities
Score (1 low, 10 high)
