Petroleum Developments in the World Market and Member Countries ...
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Key Indicators ¾ In February 2009, the OPEC Reference basket decreased slightly by 0.2% or $0.1/bbl to stand at $41.4/bbl. ¾ World Oil Demand increased in February 2009 by 1.2% or one million b/d to 84.9 million b/d. ¾ World oil supplies in February 2009 decreased by 100 tb/d to 84.8 million b/d. ¾ USA crude oil imports rose in January 2009 by 198 tb/d to 9.84 mb/d, and USA product imports increased by 149 tb/d to average 3.33 mb/d. ¾ OECD commercial inventories were up in January 2009 by 14 mn bbls to 2691 mn bbls. Total Commercial inventories were up by 35 mn bbls to 5143 mn bbls – a level that covered 70.4 days of forward consumption. ¾ The average spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub went down in February 2009 by 13.2% to stand at $4.6/m BTU. ¾ The Price of Japanese LNG imports was down in January 2009 to $12.7/m BTU, and Korean Price also decreased by $1.4/m to $15.1/m BTU. ¾ Arab LNG exports to Japan and Korea were up by 16% in January 2009 to 3.28 million tons (a share of 33.5% of total imports).
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Petroleum Developments in the World Market and Member Countries* I. Oil Market The 152nd Meeting of the Conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) convened in Vienna, Austria, on 15th March 2009, under the Chairmanship of its President, HE Minister of Petroleum of Angola and Head of its Delegation, and its Alternate President, HE Minister of Mines and Petroleum of Ecuador and Head of its Delegation. In its review of recent oil market developments, along with the Secretariat's supply/demand projections for 2009, the Conference was concerned to note that the world economy is in the midst of the worst global economic recession in decades, with the world economy forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2009, considerably lower than the forecast in December 2008, and downside risks dominating, especially in the OECD region. It also noted that while a necessary condition for economic recovery is a return of confidence in financial markets, and that systemic risks to the financial system have already been reduced, the degree of success of bank bailout plans and fiscal stimulus packages may only become evident later in the year, in addition to which equity markets remain bearish with the potential for further downward movement. The Conference also observed with concern the deep impact of the economic downturn on world oil demand, estimated to decline by 1.0 mb/d in 2009 to 84.6 mb/d. As a result of this, high stock levels, which are currently at 59 days of forward cover, will persist. At the same time the 1
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Conference noted that non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.4 mb/d in 2009, to 50.7 mb/d, resulting in a total call on OPEC production during 2009 of 29.1 mb/d, a reduction of 1.8 mb/d over 2008. The Conference, however, welcomed, some initial signs reported of a reversal in crude oil-stock trends, and a narrowing of the contango in the front price structure, indicating that the adjustment process instigated through OPEC measures vis-à-vis excess supply in the market is gradually helping to redress balance, and was also pleased to observe that following the decision taken by the 151st (Extraordinary) Meeting of the Conference in December 2008 to cut 4.2 mb/d from the actual September 2008 OPEC11 production level with effect from 1st January 2009, compliance for the month of February, according to secondary sources, was 79%, which has contributed to balancing the price of the OPEC Reference Basket at around US$40/b since the beginning of the year, despite the critical economic outlook. The Conference therefore emphasized its commitment to comply fully with its decision of December 2008, in order to further contribute to market stability. The Secretariat will monitor very closely developments in the market. Furthermore, the Conference will convene in Vienna, on Thursday 28th May 2009, to consider any further actions deemed necessary. The Conference also agreed that its next Ordinary Meeting will be convened in Vienna, on Wednesday 9th September 2009. At the same time the Conference reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the market, ensuring a regular supply of petroleum to consumers at price levels which are equitable not only for the world economy, for consumers but also to ensure adequate future supply.
2
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
1. Prices 1.1 Crude Oil Prices In February 2009, the Weekly average price of OPEC basket fluctuated between $39.5 and $42.7/bbl, to reach its highest level ($42.7/bbl ) in the second week of the month. As indicated in Figure (1). Figure 1 Weekly Average Spot Prices of the OPEC Basket of Crudes,2008-2009 ($\bb1)
140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Feb. Mar. 2008
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Feb.
On monthly basis, the average price of OPEC basket in February 2009 decreased slightly by 0.2% or $0.1/bbl from the previous month level to $41.4/bbl. This level was 54.3% or $49.2/bbl lower than a year ago. The relative stability in oil prices during the month of February 2009 was due to: - The measures taken by the Governments of the affected economies to confront the financial crisis and ease its impact. - OPEC’s efforts toward balance the market. Table (1) and figure (2) show the change in the price of the OPEC basket versus last month and the corresponding month of last year : 3
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table 1 Change in the Price of the OPEC Basket of Crudes, 2008-2009 ($/bbl) Feb. 2008
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan2009
Feb.
Monthly Change
2.1
8.4
6.2
14.2
8.9
2.9
-18.8
-15.6
-27.7
-19.4
-11.2
2.9
- 0.1
Month-onMonth Change from the Previous Year
36.0
40.4
41.6
54.9
61.4
59.3
43.7
22.7
-10.2
- 39.1
- 48.6
- 46.9
- 49.2
* Effective June 16,2005 OPEC replaced its seven-crude basket with one comprised of eleven crudes, one from each member country (weighted according to production and exports to major markets). Effective 1 January and mid of December 2007, Angola’s Girassol and Ecuadorian Oriente crudes have been incorporated to become the 12th and 13th crudes comprising the new Opec Basket. As of Jan.2009, the basket excludes the Indonesian crude. Figure 2 Change in the Price of the OPEC Basket of Crudes, 2008-2009 ($/bbl)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Monthly Change Month-on-Month Change from the Previous Year Feb. 2008
March April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Feb.
Tables (1) to (3) in the annex show spot prices for OPEC basket and other crudes for the period 2008-2009. 1.2 Spot Prices of Petroleum Products - US Gulf The spot prices of Premium gasoline, gas oil, and fuel oil, in January 2009 were up from their previous month levels, by 22.9% ($9.9/bbl) to $53.2/bbl for Premium gasoline, and by 6.6% ($3.7/bbl) to $59.6/bbl for
4
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
gas oil, and the prices of fuel oil increased by 23.4% ($8.6/bbl) to $45.3/bbl. Prices rose due to the lower refinery runs, along with the relatively tight situation for heavy crude and increasing demand for fuel oil due to its low prices in comparison with the natural gas. - Rotterdam The spot prices of the three products, in January 2009 rose by 16.6% ($6.6/bbl) for Premium gasoline , 16.6% ($9.5/bbl) for gas oil and 7.4% ($2.5/bbl) for fuel oil, to $46.3/bbl, $66.6/bbl, and $36.3/bbl respectively. ِIncreased export opportunities to the US, Asia and Australia, together with cold winter and demand increase for heating oil, have helped price increase in the European product market. - Mediterranean The spot prices of Premium gasoline, gas oil and fuel oil in January 2009 went up from their previous month levels by 23.0% ($9.4/bbl), 23.1% ($14.0/bbl), and 6.6% ($2.4/bbl) respectively, to $50.3/bbl for the Premium gasoline, $74.7/bbl for gas oil and $38.6/bbl for fuel oil. - Singapore The spot prices of Premium gasoline and fuel oil in January 2009 increased from the previous month by 27.0% ($11.1/bbl), 12.4% ($4.5/bbl) respectively, to $52.2/bbl for the Premium gasoline and $40.7/bbl for fuel oil.
5
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
By contrast, the spot prices for gas oil declined during January 2009, by 2.9% ($1.8/bbl) to $61.3/bbl. Figure (3) shows the price of Premium gasoline in all four markets from January 2008 to January 2009. Figure 3 Monthly Average Spot Prices of Premium Gasoline, 2008-2009 ($/bbl) 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 Jan. 2008
Singapore US Gulf
Feb. March April May
Rotterdam Mediterranean
June
July
Aug. Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Table (4) in the annex shows the average monthly spot prices of petroleum products, 2008-2009.
1.3 Crude Freight Rates In general, Freight rates for crude oil experienced decline during the month of January 2009. Freight rates for crude oil for tanker (230-280 thousand deadweight tons dwt ), leaving Middle Eastern ports to the East went down by 26.0% (20 points) to 57 points on the World Scale* (WS). Freight rates for crude oil for tanker size 270-285 thousand (dwt), leaving
6
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Middle Eastern ports to the West, also went down by 22.2% (12 points) to 42 points on the World Scale* (WS). Freight rates for inter- Mediterranean for small to medium sized tankers (80-85 thousand dwt) decreased sharply by 49.5% (101 points) to 103 points on the WS. Figure (4) shows the freight rates for crude oil to all three destinations from January 2008 to January 2009. Figure 4 Monthly Spot Crude Oil Tanker Freight Rates, 2008-2009 (World Scale)* 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Middle East/East Jan. 2008
Feb
March
April
Middle East/West May
June
July
Mediterranean/Mediterranean Aug.
Se pt.
O ct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
*World Scale is a method for calculating freight prices. One point for the WS means 1% of the standard price of freight in the direction in the WS book, which is published annually by the World Scale Association. The book contains a list of prices in the form of US dollar per ton, called “World Scale 100,” for all the major routes in the world.
1.4 Products Freight Rates In comparison with Freight rates for crude oil, Monthly spot freight rates for petroleum products were also declined during the month of January 2009. Freight rates for oil products for tanker size 30-35 thousand dwt, leaving Middle Eastern ports to the East went down by 41.5% (66 points) to 93 points on WS. Freight rates across Mediterranean and Med/North7
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
West Europe for tanker size 30-35 thousand dwt, declined by 94 points each (42.7% and 40.9%) to 126 points and 136 points on WS respectively. Figure (5) shows the freight rates for oil products to all three destinations from January 2008 to January 2009. Figure 5 Monthly Spot Product Tanker Freight Rates, 2008-2009 (World Scale)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
Middle East/East
0 Jan. 2008
Fe b
March
Mediterranean/Mediterranean April
May
June
July
Med/North-West Europe Aug.
Se pt.
O ct.
Nov.
De c.
Jan. 2009
Table (5) and (6) in the annex show crude and products Tankers Freight Rates, 2008-2009.
2. Supply and Demand Preliminary estimates of the world oil demand in February 2009 show increase by 1.2% or one million b/d from the previous month to 84.9 Million b/d - a decline by 3.5% or 3.1 million b/d from a year ago. Demand in OECD countries rose by 1.3% or 600 thousand b/d from the previous month to 47.3 million b/d – a level that is 2.3 million b/d lower than a year ago. Non-OECD countries demand for the month also
8
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
went up by 1.1% or 400 thousand b/d from the previous month to 37.6 million b/d – a level that is 700 thousand b/d lower than a year ago. On the supply side, estimates show that world oil supplies for February 2009 were slightly down by 0.1% or 100 thousand b/d from their previous month level to (84.8 million b/d ), a level that is 2.5 million b/d (2.9%) lower than a year ago. OPEC Crude Oil supplies for the month of February 2009, decreased by 0.7% or 200 thousand b/d from previous level, making OPEC total Crude Oil and NGLs/condensates supplies stands at 33.0 million b/d. By contrast, Preliminary estimates show that Non-OPEC supplies for the month were slightly up by 0.2% or 100 tb/d to 51.8 million b/d. Preliminary estimates of the supply and demand balance for February 2009 reveal a deficit of 0.1 mn b/d compared to a surplus of 0.9 mn b/d and
deficit
of
0.7 mn b/d in January 2009 and February 2008
respectively, as shown in table (2) and figure (6) : Table (2) World Supply and Demand February 2009 OECD Demand Rest of the World World Demand OPEC Supply : Crude Oil NGLs & Cond.
47.3 37.6 84.9 33.0 27.8 5.2
Non-OPEC Supply Processing Gain World Supply Balance
49.5 2.3 84.8 (0.1)
(Million b/d) January Change from 2009 January 2009 46.7 0.6 37.2 0.4 83.9 1.0 33.2 - 0.2 28.0 - 0.2 5.2 0.0 49.4 2.3 84.9 0.9
Source: Energy Intelligence Briefing Mar.04, 2009. 9
0.1 0.0 0.1
February 2008 49.6 38.3 88.0 36.7 31.7 5.0 48.5 2.1 87.3 (0.7)
Change from February 2008 - 2.3 - 0.7 - 3.1 - 3.7 - 3.9 0.2 1.0 0.2 - 2.5
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Figure 6 World Supply and Demand ( million b/d) 90
88
86 84 Stockbuild 82 Demand
80 Feb. 2008
Mar.
Apr.
May
Supply June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Tables (7) and (8) in the annex show World Oil Demand and Supply for the period 2008-2009.
3. Oil Trade USA US crude oil imports increased in January 2009, by 2.1% or 198 thousand b/d, averaging 9.84 mb/d, Where US product imports increased by 4.7% or 149 thousand b/d to 3.33 mb/d. On the export side, US product exports went up in January by 115 thousand b/d or 8.0% compared to the previous month averaging 1.48 10
Feb.
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
mb/d. As a result, US net oil imports increased by 232 thousand b/d or 2.0% in January compared with the previous month to reach about 11.67 mb/d. Canada was the top US crude oil supplier with a share of 21.6%, followed by Saudi Arabia with 14.8%, Mexico and Venezuela came next with 12.0% and 10.9% respectively. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 54.1% of total US crude oil imports. For product imports, Canada was the top product supplier to the US with share of 17.8%, Russia came next with a share of 10.3%, followed by the Virgin Islands with 9.1%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 18.2% of US product imports.
Japan Japan’s crude oil imports in January 2009 went down by 8.9% or 370 thousand b/d to average 3.8 mb/d, where Japan’s Petroleum product imports declined by 25.1% or 278 thousand b/d averaging 0.832 million b/d. On the export side, Japan’s Petroleum products exports in January 2009 were down by 147 thousand b/d or 20% compared with the previous month, to average 585 thousand b/d. As a result, Japan net oil imports decreased by 500 thousand b/d in January, to reach about 4.040 mb/d. This is mainly due to the 370 thousand b/d decrease in net crude oil and the 130 thousand b/d decrease in net product imports. 11
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Saudi Arabia was Japan’s top crude oil supplier in January 2009 with a share of 29.9%, followed by UAE with share of 20.8%, Iran and Qatar came next with share of 13.5% and 10.6% respectively. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 86.4% of Japan’s crude oil imports. . For product imports, Saudi Arabia was the top product supplier to Japan in January 2009 with share of 14.8%, UAE came next with a share of 11.6%, and Kuwait with 10.3%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 47.3% of Japan product imports in January 2009.
China China’s crude oil imports in January 2009 decreased by 11% or 366 thousand
b/d to average 3.0 mb/d,
and China’s
Petroleum product
imports were down by 33% or 367 thousand b/d, to average 0.75 mb/d . On the export side, China’s crude oil exports in January 2009 were up by 7 thousand b/d to average 107 thousand b/d. As a result, China’s net oil imports decreased by 532 thousand b/d in January 2009, to reach about 3.37 mb/d. This is mainly due to the 371 thousand b/d decrease in net crude oil and the 165 thousand b/d decrease in net product imports. Saudi Arabia was China’s top crude oil supplier in January 2009 with a share of 24.5%, followed by Angola with share of 17.1%, Iran came next with share of 16.5%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 66.6% of China’s crude oil imports.
12
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table (3) shows change in crude and products net imports/(exports) in January 2009 versus the previous month: Table 3 USA, Japan, and China Crude and Product Net Imports/(Exports) ( million bbl/d)
Crude Oil
OECD of which : USA Japan China
Total Products
January 2009
December 2008
Change from Dec. 2008
9.816 3.796 2.926
9.618 4.166 3.297
0.198 - 0.370 - 0.371
January 2009
December 2008
Change from Dec. 2008
1.851 0.243 0.440
1.817 0.374 0.605
0.034 - 0.131 - 0.165
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 2009, various Issues.
4. Oil Inventories OECD commercial inventories in
January 2009 went up by 14
million barrels from the previous month to 2691 million barrels- a level higher by 69 million bbls than a year ago- from which were 990 million bbls crude and 1701 million bbls products. It worth mentioning that during the month crude inventories increased by 22 million bbls, where products inventories decreased by 8 million bbls. Inventories in North America increased by 23 million bbls, to 1331 million barrels, from which 496 million bbls crude and 834 million bbls products. Inventories in Europe also increased by 4 million bbls, to 967 million barrels of which 334 million barrels crude, and 632 million barrels petroleum products. By contrast, Pacific inventories went down by 12 million bbl to 394 million barrels of which 160 million bbls crude, and 235 million barrels petroleum products. 13
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
In the rest of the world, January inventories were up by 12 million bbls, to 1421 million barrels - a level that is 13 million bbls higher than a year ago. Inventories at sea rose by 4 million bbls from the previous month to 959 million barrels, and Caribbean inventories increased by 6 million barrels from the previous month to 72 million barrels in January 2009. Commercial inventories in January 2009 were up by 35 million bbls to 5143 million barrels – a level that is 109 million barrels higher than a year ago. Inventories covered 70.4 days of forward consumption. Strategic inventories in OECD-30, South Africa and China went up by 5 million bbls from the previous month to 1687 million barrels – a level that is 40 million bbls higher than a year ago. Total World inventories, at the end of January 2009 were at 6831 million barrels, representing an increase of 41 million bbls from the previous month, and 150 million bbls higher than a year ago. Usable commercial inventories were up by 36 million bbls to 1292 million barrels - covering 14.8 days of forward consumption. Table (9) in the annex and figure (7) show the changes in global inventories prevailing at the end of January 2009.
14
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Figure 7 Change in Global Inventories at the End of January 2009 (Million bbl)
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60
Change from December 2008
OECD
Rest of the World
Oil at Sea
Change from January 2008
Caribbean Storage
Total Commercial
Total Strategic
Total
II. The Natural Gas Market 1. Spot and future Prices of Natural Gas in US market The average spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub in February 2009 was down by 13.2% or $0.7/million British Thermal Units (BTU) compared with the previous month, to stand at $4.6 /million BTU. The comparison, shown in table (4), between natural gas prices and those for the WTI crude and low sulfur fuel oil reveals differential of $2.1/ million BTU in favor of WTI crude and $ 2.5/ million BTU in favor of low sulfur fuel oil, as indicated in table (4) 15
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table (4) Henry Hub Natural Gas, WTI Crude Average, and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Spot Prices, 2008-2009 ($/Million BTU1)
Natural Gas2 WTI Crude3 Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (0.3%)
Feb. 2008
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan2009
Feb.
8.4
9.4
10.3
11.2
12.6
11.4
8.3
7.6
6.7
6.6
5.8
5.3
4.6
16.4
18.2
19.4
21.6
23.1
23.0
20.1
16.7
13.2
8.4
7.1
7.2
6.7
12.8
13.5
14.4
15.5
18.7
19.6
17.5
15.5
11.0
7.8
6.5
7.1
7.1
1. British Thermal Unit. 2. Henry Hub spot price. 3. WTI – West Texas Intermediate Crude oil price, in dollars per barrel, is converted to dollar per million BTU using a conversion factor of 5.80 million BTU/bbl. Source: World Gas Intelligence March 4,2009 .
Prices of gas futures at the London's ICE on March 9, 2009 were higher than those quoted at the NYMEX for the period April 2009 to January 2010, with maximum differential of $2.24/ million BTU in January 2010. These developments are shown in figure (8). Figure 8 Gas Futures March 9, 2009
10
($/Million BTU)
8
6
4
2
ICE
NYMEX
0 Apr. 2009
May
June
July
Aug.
Source: World Gas Intelligence March. 11 , 2009.
16
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2010
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
2. Asian LNG Markets In January 2009,
the price of Japanese LNG imports plunged by
$1.1/million BTU from the previous month to settle at $12.7/million BTU. The price of Korean LNG imports was also down by $1.4/million BTU, from the previous month to $15.1/million BTU, where the price of Chinese LNG imports went up by $0.8/million BTU, from the previous month to $3.9/million BTU. Total Japanese, Korean and Chinese LNG imports from various sources in January 2009 were up by 13.2% or 1.165 Million tons from the previous month to 10.008 million tons, this increase was mainly due to the rise in South Korea imports by 1.467 Million tons from the previous month levels. UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Algeria and Oman exports to Japan and Korea were up in January 2009 by 16% or 453 thousand tons to 3.280 million tons - a share of 33.5% of total Japanese and Korean LNG imports. This is mainly due to the increase in Qatari LNG exports to 1.537 million tons to Japan and Korea, and Oman exports to 1.028 million tons. Table (5) shows the prices and quantities of LNG imported by Japan South Korea and China in 2007-2009.
17
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table (5) LNG Prices and Imports: Korea, Japan and China, 2007-2009 Imports Average Import Price (thousand tons)
($/million BTU)
Japan
Korea
China
2007
66816
25577
2913
95306
7.7
9.5
4.0
2008
69628
26257
3336
99221
12.5
13.8
5.4
5869
1810
258
7937
15.0
16.6
3.1
November
5240
1810
270
7320
15.1
16.6
3.7
December
6206
2442
195
8843
13.8
16.5
3.1
5896
3909
203
10008
12.7
15.1
3.9
October 2008
January 2009
Total
Japan
Korea
China
Source: World Gas Intelligence March.11, 2009.
III. News of OAPEC Member and Other Countries Egypt The government has decided to create an independent agency whose primary goal is to liberalize and reorganize the oil and gas sector, as well as encourage a larger number of foreign companies to participate in upstream activities in the country. The Regulatory Agency for Gas and Oil Affairs will thus be responsible for making the market more competitive. The new agency will also be responsible for overseeing the marketing and distribution of oil and gas in Egypt and ensuring that there are no monopolies in the domestic market.
18
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Oman UAE's RAK Petroleum announced on 17 February the start of production from West Bukha field in Oman's Block 8 in the Strait of Hormuz. The initial flow rates are 10,000 b/d of 42 API gravity oil and 30 mn cfd of associated gas from two wells, produced through a six –slot unmanned platform in 90 ms of water. RAK Petroleum Chairman said: " This is the first offshore oil field to come on stream in the Sultanate of Oman. Oil and condensate will be exported, while gas will be delivered to industrial and commercial users in the emirate. The West Bukha development cost was $250mn. RAK Petroleum is operator of Block 8 with a 40% stake, while Korea's LG holds 50% and UK's Heritage Oil holds 10%.
Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco announced on 22 February that the QingLanShan crude oil terminal, built to service Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobile and China's Sinopec 240,000 b/d Fujian refinery project in southern China, started up on 16 February with the arrival of the first cargo of Saudi crude. The Fujian project, which involves expansion of the existing 80,000 b/d refinery by 160,000 b/d and construction of an integrated petrochemicals complex, is expected to be on stream during the first half of this year. The 2.2 mn tons/year petrochemicals plant includes an 800,000 t/y steam cracker, production of 800,000 t/y of polyethylene, 400,000 t/y of polypropylene, a 700,000 t/y aromatics complex and a 300,000 t/y benzene unit. The QingLanShan terminal will be able to handle very Large Crude carriers of up to 300,000 dwt capacity. Syria 19
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Two laws were issued on 24 February, which are intended to restructure the hydrocarbons sector in the country and separate the upstream and downstream activities in a more precise way. Essentially the new legislation established two state-owned organizations- the General Organization for Petroleum (GOP), which will be concerned with exploration, production, transportation of petroleum and gas processing, and the General Organization for Refining and Distribution of Petroleum Products (GORDPP), which as the name implies will be concerned with refining and distribution. The two organizations will enjoy financial and administrative autonomy and will report to the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. They will be headquartered in Damascus. UAE The Managing Director of the Port Authority of Fujairah was quoted as saying that the new marine terminal under construction in the Emirate of Fujairah will be able to accommodate the world's largest oil tankers. When completed, the terminal will be able to load and ship nearly 70% of Abu Dhabi's total crude oil exports, which would thus not have to pass through the Straits of Hormuz. The project is costing an estimated Dh 900 million ($ 245 million) and involves the construction of 17 quayside storage tanks for crude oil and the laying of pipelines for loading oil onto tankers. Four storage tanks are to be built in the first phase, which is expected to cost Dh 100 million and is scheduled for completion in 2010. Russia Russia has signed two massive loan agreements with China that give $25 billion to Russian state firms in exchange for long-term oil supplies. China Development Bank will lend $ 10 billion to state pipeline operator Transneft and $ 15 billion to state oil major Rosneft. The deal is 20
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
backed by oil supplies of 300,000 b/d over 20 years starting from 2011. Rosneft desperately needed the loan to refinance its heavy debts, which total $ 23 billion, with $ 9 billion due this year. Transneft needs the funds for construction of the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline, which is scheduled to begin bringing 600,000 b/d from East Siberia to Skovorodino, near the Chinese border, in late 2009. Vietnam State -owned Petrovietnam has started up the country's first-ever refinery, the 140,000 b/d Dung Quat facility. A crude distillation unit was brought on line in mid-February, and the plant's remaining 10 units will be started up over the next couple of months. The first products to reach the market have been kerosene, gas oil and naphtha, with production of gasoline scheduled to begin in the second half of April. The refinery will run on domestic Bach Ho crude and will focus sales on the domestic market. When fully operational, Dung Quat will produce 3 million tons/yr (62,200 b/d) of gas oil, 1.9 million tons/yr of gasoline (44,000 b/d), 400,000 tons/yr (9,000 b/d) of kerosene and jet fuel, 300,000 tons/yr (5,500 b/d) of fuel oil, 300,000 tons/yr of LPG and 150,000 tons/yr of propylene.
21
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
Statistical Tables Appendix
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
The Economic Department
Key Indicators ¾ In February 2009, the OPEC Reference basket decreased slightly by 0.2% or $0.1/bbl to stand at $41.4/bbl. ¾ World Oil Demand increased in February 2009 by 1.2% or one million b/d to 84.9 million b/d. ¾ World oil supplies in February 2009 decreased by 100 tb/d to 84.8 million b/d. ¾ USA crude oil imports rose in January 2009 by 198 tb/d to 9.84 mb/d, and USA product imports increased by 149 tb/d to average 3.33 mb/d. ¾ OECD commercial inventories were up in January 2009 by 14 mn bbls to 2691 mn bbls. Total Commercial inventories were up by 35 mn bbls to 5143 mn bbls – a level that covered 70.4 days of forward consumption. ¾ The average spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub went down in February 2009 by 13.2% to stand at $4.6/m BTU. ¾ The Price of Japanese LNG imports was down in January 2009 to $12.7/m BTU, and Korean Price also decreased by $1.4/m to $15.1/m BTU. ¾ Arab LNG exports to Japan and Korea were up by 16% in January 2009 to 3.28 million tons (a share of 33.5% of total imports).
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Petroleum Developments in the World Market and Member Countries* I. Oil Market The 152nd Meeting of the Conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) convened in Vienna, Austria, on 15th March 2009, under the Chairmanship of its President, HE Minister of Petroleum of Angola and Head of its Delegation, and its Alternate President, HE Minister of Mines and Petroleum of Ecuador and Head of its Delegation. In its review of recent oil market developments, along with the Secretariat's supply/demand projections for 2009, the Conference was concerned to note that the world economy is in the midst of the worst global economic recession in decades, with the world economy forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2009, considerably lower than the forecast in December 2008, and downside risks dominating, especially in the OECD region. It also noted that while a necessary condition for economic recovery is a return of confidence in financial markets, and that systemic risks to the financial system have already been reduced, the degree of success of bank bailout plans and fiscal stimulus packages may only become evident later in the year, in addition to which equity markets remain bearish with the potential for further downward movement. The Conference also observed with concern the deep impact of the economic downturn on world oil demand, estimated to decline by 1.0 mb/d in 2009 to 84.6 mb/d. As a result of this, high stock levels, which are currently at 59 days of forward cover, will persist. At the same time the 1
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Conference noted that non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.4 mb/d in 2009, to 50.7 mb/d, resulting in a total call on OPEC production during 2009 of 29.1 mb/d, a reduction of 1.8 mb/d over 2008. The Conference, however, welcomed, some initial signs reported of a reversal in crude oil-stock trends, and a narrowing of the contango in the front price structure, indicating that the adjustment process instigated through OPEC measures vis-à-vis excess supply in the market is gradually helping to redress balance, and was also pleased to observe that following the decision taken by the 151st (Extraordinary) Meeting of the Conference in December 2008 to cut 4.2 mb/d from the actual September 2008 OPEC11 production level with effect from 1st January 2009, compliance for the month of February, according to secondary sources, was 79%, which has contributed to balancing the price of the OPEC Reference Basket at around US$40/b since the beginning of the year, despite the critical economic outlook. The Conference therefore emphasized its commitment to comply fully with its decision of December 2008, in order to further contribute to market stability. The Secretariat will monitor very closely developments in the market. Furthermore, the Conference will convene in Vienna, on Thursday 28th May 2009, to consider any further actions deemed necessary. The Conference also agreed that its next Ordinary Meeting will be convened in Vienna, on Wednesday 9th September 2009. At the same time the Conference reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the market, ensuring a regular supply of petroleum to consumers at price levels which are equitable not only for the world economy, for consumers but also to ensure adequate future supply.
2
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
1. Prices 1.1 Crude Oil Prices In February 2009, the Weekly average price of OPEC basket fluctuated between $39.5 and $42.7/bbl, to reach its highest level ($42.7/bbl ) in the second week of the month. As indicated in Figure (1). Figure 1 Weekly Average Spot Prices of the OPEC Basket of Crudes,2008-2009 ($\bb1)
140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Feb. Mar. 2008
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Feb.
On monthly basis, the average price of OPEC basket in February 2009 decreased slightly by 0.2% or $0.1/bbl from the previous month level to $41.4/bbl. This level was 54.3% or $49.2/bbl lower than a year ago. The relative stability in oil prices during the month of February 2009 was due to: - The measures taken by the Governments of the affected economies to confront the financial crisis and ease its impact. - OPEC’s efforts toward balance the market. Table (1) and figure (2) show the change in the price of the OPEC basket versus last month and the corresponding month of last year : 3
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table 1 Change in the Price of the OPEC Basket of Crudes, 2008-2009 ($/bbl) Feb. 2008
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan2009
Feb.
Monthly Change
2.1
8.4
6.2
14.2
8.9
2.9
-18.8
-15.6
-27.7
-19.4
-11.2
2.9
- 0.1
Month-onMonth Change from the Previous Year
36.0
40.4
41.6
54.9
61.4
59.3
43.7
22.7
-10.2
- 39.1
- 48.6
- 46.9
- 49.2
* Effective June 16,2005 OPEC replaced its seven-crude basket with one comprised of eleven crudes, one from each member country (weighted according to production and exports to major markets). Effective 1 January and mid of December 2007, Angola’s Girassol and Ecuadorian Oriente crudes have been incorporated to become the 12th and 13th crudes comprising the new Opec Basket. As of Jan.2009, the basket excludes the Indonesian crude. Figure 2 Change in the Price of the OPEC Basket of Crudes, 2008-2009 ($/bbl)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Monthly Change Month-on-Month Change from the Previous Year Feb. 2008
March April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Feb.
Tables (1) to (3) in the annex show spot prices for OPEC basket and other crudes for the period 2008-2009. 1.2 Spot Prices of Petroleum Products - US Gulf The spot prices of Premium gasoline, gas oil, and fuel oil, in January 2009 were up from their previous month levels, by 22.9% ($9.9/bbl) to $53.2/bbl for Premium gasoline, and by 6.6% ($3.7/bbl) to $59.6/bbl for
4
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
gas oil, and the prices of fuel oil increased by 23.4% ($8.6/bbl) to $45.3/bbl. Prices rose due to the lower refinery runs, along with the relatively tight situation for heavy crude and increasing demand for fuel oil due to its low prices in comparison with the natural gas. - Rotterdam The spot prices of the three products, in January 2009 rose by 16.6% ($6.6/bbl) for Premium gasoline , 16.6% ($9.5/bbl) for gas oil and 7.4% ($2.5/bbl) for fuel oil, to $46.3/bbl, $66.6/bbl, and $36.3/bbl respectively. ِIncreased export opportunities to the US, Asia and Australia, together with cold winter and demand increase for heating oil, have helped price increase in the European product market. - Mediterranean The spot prices of Premium gasoline, gas oil and fuel oil in January 2009 went up from their previous month levels by 23.0% ($9.4/bbl), 23.1% ($14.0/bbl), and 6.6% ($2.4/bbl) respectively, to $50.3/bbl for the Premium gasoline, $74.7/bbl for gas oil and $38.6/bbl for fuel oil. - Singapore The spot prices of Premium gasoline and fuel oil in January 2009 increased from the previous month by 27.0% ($11.1/bbl), 12.4% ($4.5/bbl) respectively, to $52.2/bbl for the Premium gasoline and $40.7/bbl for fuel oil.
5
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
By contrast, the spot prices for gas oil declined during January 2009, by 2.9% ($1.8/bbl) to $61.3/bbl. Figure (3) shows the price of Premium gasoline in all four markets from January 2008 to January 2009. Figure 3 Monthly Average Spot Prices of Premium Gasoline, 2008-2009 ($/bbl) 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 Jan. 2008
Singapore US Gulf
Feb. March April May
Rotterdam Mediterranean
June
July
Aug. Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Table (4) in the annex shows the average monthly spot prices of petroleum products, 2008-2009.
1.3 Crude Freight Rates In general, Freight rates for crude oil experienced decline during the month of January 2009. Freight rates for crude oil for tanker (230-280 thousand deadweight tons dwt ), leaving Middle Eastern ports to the East went down by 26.0% (20 points) to 57 points on the World Scale* (WS). Freight rates for crude oil for tanker size 270-285 thousand (dwt), leaving
6
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Middle Eastern ports to the West, also went down by 22.2% (12 points) to 42 points on the World Scale* (WS). Freight rates for inter- Mediterranean for small to medium sized tankers (80-85 thousand dwt) decreased sharply by 49.5% (101 points) to 103 points on the WS. Figure (4) shows the freight rates for crude oil to all three destinations from January 2008 to January 2009. Figure 4 Monthly Spot Crude Oil Tanker Freight Rates, 2008-2009 (World Scale)* 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Middle East/East Jan. 2008
Feb
March
April
Middle East/West May
June
July
Mediterranean/Mediterranean Aug.
Se pt.
O ct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
*World Scale is a method for calculating freight prices. One point for the WS means 1% of the standard price of freight in the direction in the WS book, which is published annually by the World Scale Association. The book contains a list of prices in the form of US dollar per ton, called “World Scale 100,” for all the major routes in the world.
1.4 Products Freight Rates In comparison with Freight rates for crude oil, Monthly spot freight rates for petroleum products were also declined during the month of January 2009. Freight rates for oil products for tanker size 30-35 thousand dwt, leaving Middle Eastern ports to the East went down by 41.5% (66 points) to 93 points on WS. Freight rates across Mediterranean and Med/North7
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
West Europe for tanker size 30-35 thousand dwt, declined by 94 points each (42.7% and 40.9%) to 126 points and 136 points on WS respectively. Figure (5) shows the freight rates for oil products to all three destinations from January 2008 to January 2009. Figure 5 Monthly Spot Product Tanker Freight Rates, 2008-2009 (World Scale)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
Middle East/East
0 Jan. 2008
Fe b
March
Mediterranean/Mediterranean April
May
June
July
Med/North-West Europe Aug.
Se pt.
O ct.
Nov.
De c.
Jan. 2009
Table (5) and (6) in the annex show crude and products Tankers Freight Rates, 2008-2009.
2. Supply and Demand Preliminary estimates of the world oil demand in February 2009 show increase by 1.2% or one million b/d from the previous month to 84.9 Million b/d - a decline by 3.5% or 3.1 million b/d from a year ago. Demand in OECD countries rose by 1.3% or 600 thousand b/d from the previous month to 47.3 million b/d – a level that is 2.3 million b/d lower than a year ago. Non-OECD countries demand for the month also
8
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
went up by 1.1% or 400 thousand b/d from the previous month to 37.6 million b/d – a level that is 700 thousand b/d lower than a year ago. On the supply side, estimates show that world oil supplies for February 2009 were slightly down by 0.1% or 100 thousand b/d from their previous month level to (84.8 million b/d ), a level that is 2.5 million b/d (2.9%) lower than a year ago. OPEC Crude Oil supplies for the month of February 2009, decreased by 0.7% or 200 thousand b/d from previous level, making OPEC total Crude Oil and NGLs/condensates supplies stands at 33.0 million b/d. By contrast, Preliminary estimates show that Non-OPEC supplies for the month were slightly up by 0.2% or 100 tb/d to 51.8 million b/d. Preliminary estimates of the supply and demand balance for February 2009 reveal a deficit of 0.1 mn b/d compared to a surplus of 0.9 mn b/d and
deficit
of
0.7 mn b/d in January 2009 and February 2008
respectively, as shown in table (2) and figure (6) : Table (2) World Supply and Demand February 2009 OECD Demand Rest of the World World Demand OPEC Supply : Crude Oil NGLs & Cond.
47.3 37.6 84.9 33.0 27.8 5.2
Non-OPEC Supply Processing Gain World Supply Balance
49.5 2.3 84.8 (0.1)
(Million b/d) January Change from 2009 January 2009 46.7 0.6 37.2 0.4 83.9 1.0 33.2 - 0.2 28.0 - 0.2 5.2 0.0 49.4 2.3 84.9 0.9
Source: Energy Intelligence Briefing Mar.04, 2009. 9
0.1 0.0 0.1
February 2008 49.6 38.3 88.0 36.7 31.7 5.0 48.5 2.1 87.3 (0.7)
Change from February 2008 - 2.3 - 0.7 - 3.1 - 3.7 - 3.9 0.2 1.0 0.2 - 2.5
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Figure 6 World Supply and Demand ( million b/d) 90
88
86 84 Stockbuild 82 Demand
80 Feb. 2008
Mar.
Apr.
May
Supply June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2009
Tables (7) and (8) in the annex show World Oil Demand and Supply for the period 2008-2009.
3. Oil Trade USA US crude oil imports increased in January 2009, by 2.1% or 198 thousand b/d, averaging 9.84 mb/d, Where US product imports increased by 4.7% or 149 thousand b/d to 3.33 mb/d. On the export side, US product exports went up in January by 115 thousand b/d or 8.0% compared to the previous month averaging 1.48 10
Feb.
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
mb/d. As a result, US net oil imports increased by 232 thousand b/d or 2.0% in January compared with the previous month to reach about 11.67 mb/d. Canada was the top US crude oil supplier with a share of 21.6%, followed by Saudi Arabia with 14.8%, Mexico and Venezuela came next with 12.0% and 10.9% respectively. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 54.1% of total US crude oil imports. For product imports, Canada was the top product supplier to the US with share of 17.8%, Russia came next with a share of 10.3%, followed by the Virgin Islands with 9.1%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 18.2% of US product imports.
Japan Japan’s crude oil imports in January 2009 went down by 8.9% or 370 thousand b/d to average 3.8 mb/d, where Japan’s Petroleum product imports declined by 25.1% or 278 thousand b/d averaging 0.832 million b/d. On the export side, Japan’s Petroleum products exports in January 2009 were down by 147 thousand b/d or 20% compared with the previous month, to average 585 thousand b/d. As a result, Japan net oil imports decreased by 500 thousand b/d in January, to reach about 4.040 mb/d. This is mainly due to the 370 thousand b/d decrease in net crude oil and the 130 thousand b/d decrease in net product imports. 11
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Saudi Arabia was Japan’s top crude oil supplier in January 2009 with a share of 29.9%, followed by UAE with share of 20.8%, Iran and Qatar came next with share of 13.5% and 10.6% respectively. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 86.4% of Japan’s crude oil imports. . For product imports, Saudi Arabia was the top product supplier to Japan in January 2009 with share of 14.8%, UAE came next with a share of 11.6%, and Kuwait with 10.3%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 47.3% of Japan product imports in January 2009.
China China’s crude oil imports in January 2009 decreased by 11% or 366 thousand
b/d to average 3.0 mb/d,
and China’s
Petroleum product
imports were down by 33% or 367 thousand b/d, to average 0.75 mb/d . On the export side, China’s crude oil exports in January 2009 were up by 7 thousand b/d to average 107 thousand b/d. As a result, China’s net oil imports decreased by 532 thousand b/d in January 2009, to reach about 3.37 mb/d. This is mainly due to the 371 thousand b/d decrease in net crude oil and the 165 thousand b/d decrease in net product imports. Saudi Arabia was China’s top crude oil supplier in January 2009 with a share of 24.5%, followed by Angola with share of 17.1%, Iran came next with share of 16.5%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 66.6% of China’s crude oil imports.
12
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table (3) shows change in crude and products net imports/(exports) in January 2009 versus the previous month: Table 3 USA, Japan, and China Crude and Product Net Imports/(Exports) ( million bbl/d)
Crude Oil
OECD of which : USA Japan China
Total Products
January 2009
December 2008
Change from Dec. 2008
9.816 3.796 2.926
9.618 4.166 3.297
0.198 - 0.370 - 0.371
January 2009
December 2008
Change from Dec. 2008
1.851 0.243 0.440
1.817 0.374 0.605
0.034 - 0.131 - 0.165
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 2009, various Issues.
4. Oil Inventories OECD commercial inventories in
January 2009 went up by 14
million barrels from the previous month to 2691 million barrels- a level higher by 69 million bbls than a year ago- from which were 990 million bbls crude and 1701 million bbls products. It worth mentioning that during the month crude inventories increased by 22 million bbls, where products inventories decreased by 8 million bbls. Inventories in North America increased by 23 million bbls, to 1331 million barrels, from which 496 million bbls crude and 834 million bbls products. Inventories in Europe also increased by 4 million bbls, to 967 million barrels of which 334 million barrels crude, and 632 million barrels petroleum products. By contrast, Pacific inventories went down by 12 million bbl to 394 million barrels of which 160 million bbls crude, and 235 million barrels petroleum products. 13
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
In the rest of the world, January inventories were up by 12 million bbls, to 1421 million barrels - a level that is 13 million bbls higher than a year ago. Inventories at sea rose by 4 million bbls from the previous month to 959 million barrels, and Caribbean inventories increased by 6 million barrels from the previous month to 72 million barrels in January 2009. Commercial inventories in January 2009 were up by 35 million bbls to 5143 million barrels – a level that is 109 million barrels higher than a year ago. Inventories covered 70.4 days of forward consumption. Strategic inventories in OECD-30, South Africa and China went up by 5 million bbls from the previous month to 1687 million barrels – a level that is 40 million bbls higher than a year ago. Total World inventories, at the end of January 2009 were at 6831 million barrels, representing an increase of 41 million bbls from the previous month, and 150 million bbls higher than a year ago. Usable commercial inventories were up by 36 million bbls to 1292 million barrels - covering 14.8 days of forward consumption. Table (9) in the annex and figure (7) show the changes in global inventories prevailing at the end of January 2009.
14
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Figure 7 Change in Global Inventories at the End of January 2009 (Million bbl)
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60
Change from December 2008
OECD
Rest of the World
Oil at Sea
Change from January 2008
Caribbean Storage
Total Commercial
Total Strategic
Total
II. The Natural Gas Market 1. Spot and future Prices of Natural Gas in US market The average spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub in February 2009 was down by 13.2% or $0.7/million British Thermal Units (BTU) compared with the previous month, to stand at $4.6 /million BTU. The comparison, shown in table (4), between natural gas prices and those for the WTI crude and low sulfur fuel oil reveals differential of $2.1/ million BTU in favor of WTI crude and $ 2.5/ million BTU in favor of low sulfur fuel oil, as indicated in table (4) 15
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table (4) Henry Hub Natural Gas, WTI Crude Average, and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Spot Prices, 2008-2009 ($/Million BTU1)
Natural Gas2 WTI Crude3 Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (0.3%)
Feb. 2008
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan2009
Feb.
8.4
9.4
10.3
11.2
12.6
11.4
8.3
7.6
6.7
6.6
5.8
5.3
4.6
16.4
18.2
19.4
21.6
23.1
23.0
20.1
16.7
13.2
8.4
7.1
7.2
6.7
12.8
13.5
14.4
15.5
18.7
19.6
17.5
15.5
11.0
7.8
6.5
7.1
7.1
1. British Thermal Unit. 2. Henry Hub spot price. 3. WTI – West Texas Intermediate Crude oil price, in dollars per barrel, is converted to dollar per million BTU using a conversion factor of 5.80 million BTU/bbl. Source: World Gas Intelligence March 4,2009 .
Prices of gas futures at the London's ICE on March 9, 2009 were higher than those quoted at the NYMEX for the period April 2009 to January 2010, with maximum differential of $2.24/ million BTU in January 2010. These developments are shown in figure (8). Figure 8 Gas Futures March 9, 2009
10
($/Million BTU)
8
6
4
2
ICE
NYMEX
0 Apr. 2009
May
June
July
Aug.
Source: World Gas Intelligence March. 11 , 2009.
16
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan. 2010
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
2. Asian LNG Markets In January 2009,
the price of Japanese LNG imports plunged by
$1.1/million BTU from the previous month to settle at $12.7/million BTU. The price of Korean LNG imports was also down by $1.4/million BTU, from the previous month to $15.1/million BTU, where the price of Chinese LNG imports went up by $0.8/million BTU, from the previous month to $3.9/million BTU. Total Japanese, Korean and Chinese LNG imports from various sources in January 2009 were up by 13.2% or 1.165 Million tons from the previous month to 10.008 million tons, this increase was mainly due to the rise in South Korea imports by 1.467 Million tons from the previous month levels. UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Algeria and Oman exports to Japan and Korea were up in January 2009 by 16% or 453 thousand tons to 3.280 million tons - a share of 33.5% of total Japanese and Korean LNG imports. This is mainly due to the increase in Qatari LNG exports to 1.537 million tons to Japan and Korea, and Oman exports to 1.028 million tons. Table (5) shows the prices and quantities of LNG imported by Japan South Korea and China in 2007-2009.
17
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Table (5) LNG Prices and Imports: Korea, Japan and China, 2007-2009 Imports Average Import Price (thousand tons)
($/million BTU)
Japan
Korea
China
2007
66816
25577
2913
95306
7.7
9.5
4.0
2008
69628
26257
3336
99221
12.5
13.8
5.4
5869
1810
258
7937
15.0
16.6
3.1
November
5240
1810
270
7320
15.1
16.6
3.7
December
6206
2442
195
8843
13.8
16.5
3.1
5896
3909
203
10008
12.7
15.1
3.9
October 2008
January 2009
Total
Japan
Korea
China
Source: World Gas Intelligence March.11, 2009.
III. News of OAPEC Member and Other Countries Egypt The government has decided to create an independent agency whose primary goal is to liberalize and reorganize the oil and gas sector, as well as encourage a larger number of foreign companies to participate in upstream activities in the country. The Regulatory Agency for Gas and Oil Affairs will thus be responsible for making the market more competitive. The new agency will also be responsible for overseeing the marketing and distribution of oil and gas in Egypt and ensuring that there are no monopolies in the domestic market.
18
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Oman UAE's RAK Petroleum announced on 17 February the start of production from West Bukha field in Oman's Block 8 in the Strait of Hormuz. The initial flow rates are 10,000 b/d of 42 API gravity oil and 30 mn cfd of associated gas from two wells, produced through a six –slot unmanned platform in 90 ms of water. RAK Petroleum Chairman said: " This is the first offshore oil field to come on stream in the Sultanate of Oman. Oil and condensate will be exported, while gas will be delivered to industrial and commercial users in the emirate. The West Bukha development cost was $250mn. RAK Petroleum is operator of Block 8 with a 40% stake, while Korea's LG holds 50% and UK's Heritage Oil holds 10%.
Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco announced on 22 February that the QingLanShan crude oil terminal, built to service Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobile and China's Sinopec 240,000 b/d Fujian refinery project in southern China, started up on 16 February with the arrival of the first cargo of Saudi crude. The Fujian project, which involves expansion of the existing 80,000 b/d refinery by 160,000 b/d and construction of an integrated petrochemicals complex, is expected to be on stream during the first half of this year. The 2.2 mn tons/year petrochemicals plant includes an 800,000 t/y steam cracker, production of 800,000 t/y of polyethylene, 400,000 t/y of polypropylene, a 700,000 t/y aromatics complex and a 300,000 t/y benzene unit. The QingLanShan terminal will be able to handle very Large Crude carriers of up to 300,000 dwt capacity. Syria 19
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
Two laws were issued on 24 February, which are intended to restructure the hydrocarbons sector in the country and separate the upstream and downstream activities in a more precise way. Essentially the new legislation established two state-owned organizations- the General Organization for Petroleum (GOP), which will be concerned with exploration, production, transportation of petroleum and gas processing, and the General Organization for Refining and Distribution of Petroleum Products (GORDPP), which as the name implies will be concerned with refining and distribution. The two organizations will enjoy financial and administrative autonomy and will report to the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. They will be headquartered in Damascus. UAE The Managing Director of the Port Authority of Fujairah was quoted as saying that the new marine terminal under construction in the Emirate of Fujairah will be able to accommodate the world's largest oil tankers. When completed, the terminal will be able to load and ship nearly 70% of Abu Dhabi's total crude oil exports, which would thus not have to pass through the Straits of Hormuz. The project is costing an estimated Dh 900 million ($ 245 million) and involves the construction of 17 quayside storage tanks for crude oil and the laying of pipelines for loading oil onto tankers. Four storage tanks are to be built in the first phase, which is expected to cost Dh 100 million and is scheduled for completion in 2010. Russia Russia has signed two massive loan agreements with China that give $25 billion to Russian state firms in exchange for long-term oil supplies. China Development Bank will lend $ 10 billion to state pipeline operator Transneft and $ 15 billion to state oil major Rosneft. The deal is 20
Petroleum developments in the world markets and member countries
The Economic Department
backed by oil supplies of 300,000 b/d over 20 years starting from 2011. Rosneft desperately needed the loan to refinance its heavy debts, which total $ 23 billion, with $ 9 billion due this year. Transneft needs the funds for construction of the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline, which is scheduled to begin bringing 600,000 b/d from East Siberia to Skovorodino, near the Chinese border, in late 2009. Vietnam State -owned Petrovietnam has started up the country's first-ever refinery, the 140,000 b/d Dung Quat facility. A crude distillation unit was brought on line in mid-February, and the plant's remaining 10 units will be started up over the next couple of months. The first products to reach the market have been kerosene, gas oil and naphtha, with production of gasoline scheduled to begin in the second half of April. The refinery will run on domestic Bach Ho crude and will focus sales on the domestic market. When fully operational, Dung Quat will produce 3 million tons/yr (62,200 b/d) of gas oil, 1.9 million tons/yr of gasoline (44,000 b/d), 400,000 tons/yr (9,000 b/d) of kerosene and jet fuel, 300,000 tons/yr (5,500 b/d) of fuel oil, 300,000 tons/yr of LPG and 150,000 tons/yr of propylene.
21
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
Statistical Tables Appendix
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ واﻷﻗﻄﺎر اﻷﻋﻀﺎء
اﻹدارة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ
