Petroleum watch for May 8, 2009
STATE OF CALIFORNIA — THE RESOURCES AGENCY
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 1516 Ninth Street Sacramento, California 95814 WEBSITES Main website: www.energy.ca.gov Children's website: www.energyquest.ca.gov Consumer Information: www.ConsumerEnergyCenter.org
Petroleum Watch
May 8, 2009
Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices on May 4 •
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The average California retail price for regular-grade gasoline increased 2 cents from last week to $2.36 per gallon. California prices are $2.23 below their peak from June 16, 2008, at $4.59. Prices are 5 cents higher than a month ago but $1.55 lower than the same time last year.i The difference between California and U.S. retail gasoline prices increased 1 cent from a month ago to 28 cents per gallon. U.S. gasoline prices continue to rise, increasing 4 cents since last month to $2.08, but are $1.54 less than this time last year.
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The average California retail diesel price decreased 2 cents since last month to $2.32 per gallon. The U.S. retail diesel price fell 4 cents from a month ago to $2.19 per gallon.
Wholesale Gasoline, Diesel, and Blendstock Prices on May 5 •
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Wholesale gasoline and diesel prices have remained relatively flat for the past month due to no wide price swings in the crude oil market. Refiners are emerging from the maintenance season without problems, which has also helped stabilize prices. California spot wholesale gasoline prices for regular-grade reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) rose to $1.70, 11 cents per gallon more than a month ago but $1.44 less than the same time last year. Spot prices for RBOB in Los Angeles are 11 cents per gallon more than New York Harbor and 15 cents more than the Gulf Coast. California spot wholesale ultra-low-sulfur diesel prices have remained at $1.43, increasing a fraction of a cent since last month but are $2.08 lower than the same time last year. California wholesale ultra-low-sulfur diesel prices are 3 cents more than the Gulf Coast and 2 cents more than New York Harbor. Ethanol prices have been steady over the past month. Estimated California spot wholesale prices for fuel ethanol rose to $1.27 per gallon.ii
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The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report for the week ending May 1 shows that U.S. gasoline demand decreased 2.5 percent, and distillate demand increased 0.1 percent from the previous week. The four-week average demand for gasoline is 9.04 million barrels per day, 2.4 percent less than the four-week average at the same time last year. The four-week average for U.S. distillate demand is 3.53 million barrels per day, 15.8 percent less than the same period last year.
Refinery Production and Inventories •
Reformulated gasoline production in California for the week ending May 1 increased 9.3 percent from the previous week to 7.0 million barrels, rising above the five-year range and 6.3 percent higher than a year ago.iii
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California reformulated gasoline inventories increased by 10.2 percent last week while gasoline blendstock inventories decreased 1.7 percent. Combined inventories of reformulated gasoline and gasoline blendstocks in the state increased by 3.4 percent to 11.1 million barrels but remain near the bottom of the five-year range.
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U.S. gasoline inventories as of May 1 decreased to 212.4 million barrels, 167,000 barrels less than the previous week. Inventories decreased on the West Coast but increased on the Gulf and East Coasts. California ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel production during the week ending on May 1, including both California diesel and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) diesel, increased to 2.6 million barrels, 5.6 percent greater than the previous week.
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Combined ultra-low-sulfur diesel inventories in California increased 0.1 percent from the previous week to 3.2 million barrels and remain in the upper half of the fiveyear range. Total U.S. distillate inventories as of May 1 rose to 146.5 million barrels, 2.43 million barrels more than the previous week. Inventories decreased on the Gulf and West Coasts but increased on the East Coast.
Crude Oil Prices and Inventories •
West Coast prices for Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil, an important refinery feedstock for California, reached a record high of $144.59 per barrel on July 3 but then plunged $118.78 to a price of $25.81 on December 22. Prices have since increased to $54.59 as of May 6 but are still $67.25 lower than a year ago.iv Lower than expected inventory increases last week, a weakening U.S. dollar, optimistic economic data, and a rally in equities have helped support oil prices. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a recent testimony to the Joint Economic Committee, told lawmakers that he expects the economy to start growing again later this year. However, last month the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for 2009, projecting global oil demand to decline by 2.4 million barrels a day. In another indication of lower demand, the U.S. Department of Energy reported the highest crude oil inventories in 18 years.
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i
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories as of May 1 rose by 605,000 barrels from the previous week to 375.3 million barrels. Crude oil stocks are 49.7 million barrels more than this time last year and 46.6 million barrels more than the five-year average for this date. California crude oil stocks rose 2.8 percent from the previous week to 15.6 million barrels and are 4.0 percent more than last year.
Spot wholesale and retail gasoline and diesel prices and U.S. crude oil and product inventory estimates are from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. ii Ethanol railcar prices are from Platts Oilgram and are average prices for prompt Southern California shipments minus a 45¢/gal federal excise tax credit for 2009 prices and a 51¢/gal federal excise tax credit for prices before 2009. California alkylate prices are also calculated from Platts Oilgram and include a 20¢/gal transportation and distribution cost from Gulf Coast to California. Spot wholesale prices for regular-grade California reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (CARBOB) are from Oil Price Information Service. iii California refinery production and inventory information is from the Petroleum Industry Information Reporting Act (PIIRA) database maintained by the California Energy Commission. iv ANS crude oil prices are from The Wall Street Journal.
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 1516 Ninth Street Sacramento, California 95814 WEBSITES Main website: www.energy.ca.gov Children's website: www.energyquest.ca.gov Consumer Information: www.ConsumerEnergyCenter.org
Petroleum Watch
May 8, 2009
Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices on May 4 •
•
The average California retail price for regular-grade gasoline increased 2 cents from last week to $2.36 per gallon. California prices are $2.23 below their peak from June 16, 2008, at $4.59. Prices are 5 cents higher than a month ago but $1.55 lower than the same time last year.i The difference between California and U.S. retail gasoline prices increased 1 cent from a month ago to 28 cents per gallon. U.S. gasoline prices continue to rise, increasing 4 cents since last month to $2.08, but are $1.54 less than this time last year.
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The average California retail diesel price decreased 2 cents since last month to $2.32 per gallon. The U.S. retail diesel price fell 4 cents from a month ago to $2.19 per gallon.
Wholesale Gasoline, Diesel, and Blendstock Prices on May 5 •
• • • • •
Wholesale gasoline and diesel prices have remained relatively flat for the past month due to no wide price swings in the crude oil market. Refiners are emerging from the maintenance season without problems, which has also helped stabilize prices. California spot wholesale gasoline prices for regular-grade reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) rose to $1.70, 11 cents per gallon more than a month ago but $1.44 less than the same time last year. Spot prices for RBOB in Los Angeles are 11 cents per gallon more than New York Harbor and 15 cents more than the Gulf Coast. California spot wholesale ultra-low-sulfur diesel prices have remained at $1.43, increasing a fraction of a cent since last month but are $2.08 lower than the same time last year. California wholesale ultra-low-sulfur diesel prices are 3 cents more than the Gulf Coast and 2 cents more than New York Harbor. Ethanol prices have been steady over the past month. Estimated California spot wholesale prices for fuel ethanol rose to $1.27 per gallon.ii
•
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report for the week ending May 1 shows that U.S. gasoline demand decreased 2.5 percent, and distillate demand increased 0.1 percent from the previous week. The four-week average demand for gasoline is 9.04 million barrels per day, 2.4 percent less than the four-week average at the same time last year. The four-week average for U.S. distillate demand is 3.53 million barrels per day, 15.8 percent less than the same period last year.
Refinery Production and Inventories •
Reformulated gasoline production in California for the week ending May 1 increased 9.3 percent from the previous week to 7.0 million barrels, rising above the five-year range and 6.3 percent higher than a year ago.iii
•
California reformulated gasoline inventories increased by 10.2 percent last week while gasoline blendstock inventories decreased 1.7 percent. Combined inventories of reformulated gasoline and gasoline blendstocks in the state increased by 3.4 percent to 11.1 million barrels but remain near the bottom of the five-year range.
• •
U.S. gasoline inventories as of May 1 decreased to 212.4 million barrels, 167,000 barrels less than the previous week. Inventories decreased on the West Coast but increased on the Gulf and East Coasts. California ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel production during the week ending on May 1, including both California diesel and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) diesel, increased to 2.6 million barrels, 5.6 percent greater than the previous week.
•
Combined ultra-low-sulfur diesel inventories in California increased 0.1 percent from the previous week to 3.2 million barrels and remain in the upper half of the fiveyear range. Total U.S. distillate inventories as of May 1 rose to 146.5 million barrels, 2.43 million barrels more than the previous week. Inventories decreased on the Gulf and West Coasts but increased on the East Coast.
Crude Oil Prices and Inventories •
West Coast prices for Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil, an important refinery feedstock for California, reached a record high of $144.59 per barrel on July 3 but then plunged $118.78 to a price of $25.81 on December 22. Prices have since increased to $54.59 as of May 6 but are still $67.25 lower than a year ago.iv Lower than expected inventory increases last week, a weakening U.S. dollar, optimistic economic data, and a rally in equities have helped support oil prices. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a recent testimony to the Joint Economic Committee, told lawmakers that he expects the economy to start growing again later this year. However, last month the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for 2009, projecting global oil demand to decline by 2.4 million barrels a day. In another indication of lower demand, the U.S. Department of Energy reported the highest crude oil inventories in 18 years.
•
i
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories as of May 1 rose by 605,000 barrels from the previous week to 375.3 million barrels. Crude oil stocks are 49.7 million barrels more than this time last year and 46.6 million barrels more than the five-year average for this date. California crude oil stocks rose 2.8 percent from the previous week to 15.6 million barrels and are 4.0 percent more than last year.
Spot wholesale and retail gasoline and diesel prices and U.S. crude oil and product inventory estimates are from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. ii Ethanol railcar prices are from Platts Oilgram and are average prices for prompt Southern California shipments minus a 45¢/gal federal excise tax credit for 2009 prices and a 51¢/gal federal excise tax credit for prices before 2009. California alkylate prices are also calculated from Platts Oilgram and include a 20¢/gal transportation and distribution cost from Gulf Coast to California. Spot wholesale prices for regular-grade California reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (CARBOB) are from Oil Price Information Service. iii California refinery production and inventory information is from the Petroleum Industry Information Reporting Act (PIIRA) database maintained by the California Energy Commission. iv ANS crude oil prices are from The Wall Street Journal.
