PF
Company Update August 22, 2014
Property Perfect
Sell (TP Bt1.21)
2H14 to be boosted by land sales
Price Bt1.33
PF’s revised launch plan shows a new brand of CD called Metro Luxx, which now consists of four projects in different locations. The upside to our 2014 forecast could come from a higher-than-expected GPM of land sales. Regarding an update on its ski resort in Japan, PF is still in talks with potential buyers, partners and managers, and the management is considering launching low-rise CD on the resort’s empty land plot. Maintain Sell with the TP of Bt1.21, based on 0.65x 2015E PBV or +0.5SD over 2007-14E PBV. Planning to launch new condo brand PF has struggled with EIA approvals at some high-rise CD projects such as Metro Sky Paholyothin, Metro Sky Kaset and The Sky Ratchadapisek. Now, it plans to turn these projects into low-rise condos and re-launch them under the “Metro Luxx” brand. The number of projects to be launched under this brand is four (worth a combined Bt5.6bn), including a new project near Rama IV road; this is on top of the Bt3.9bn in CD projects already planned for launch this year. Three land plots might yield higher GPM than expected PF plans to sell three land plots at Sukhumvit-Bangna (selling price = Bt1.7bn), Chaengwattana (Bt500m) and Krungthep Kreetha (Bt870m). Yesterday, the company hinted that the GPM from selling these plots should be close to 40.0% while our forecast is only 35.0%. This implies 12.4% upside to our 2014E earnings. We will find out the reason behind the upward adjustment from its previous guidance before changing our forecast. The Sukhumvit plot will be realized as revenue first in 3Q14 while the other two should be sold within 4Q14. Might try launching residential projects in Japan When PF bought Kiroro Resort in Japan, it obtained two hotels (with a skiway) and a land plot. The management is considering launching low-rise condos on part of the 80-rai land plot. However, the firm hasn’t given out the timeline or details of this project. Maintain Sell with TP of Bt1.21 (0.65x 2015E PBV) PF’s operation continues to be dragged down by the ski resort in Japan, and the company’s profitability hinges on its ability to sell raw land to interested buyers and other assets to REIT. We would like to see the company get its core operation in order before considering it a sound long-term investment.
Stock Performance (%) 1M
3M
12M
Absolute
-7.64
41.48
49.43
Relative to SET
-8.09
26.61
22.88
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg Sector Paid-up Shares (m)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btm)
9,094
10,596
16,414
19,931
18,662
Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%)
258
83
981
1,023
465
0.05
0.01
0.15
0.14
0.06
-51.8
-70.8
926.2
-7.0
-54.5
Dividend (Bt)
0.03
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.02
BV (Bt)
1.60
1.51
1.99
1.86
1.88
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Norm. PER (x)
21.6
278.6
8.9
9.6
21.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.3
38.4
11.5
15.7
22.5
PBV (x)
0.83
0.88
0.67
0.71
0.71
Dividend yield (%)
2.48
0.00
3.50
3.65
1.66
ROE (%)
2.58
0.49
7.73
6.22
4.02
Net gearing (x)
1.74
2.02
0.94
0.98
1.00
5,782.93
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
8.00/241.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/17.98
52 week High / Low (Bt)
1.57/0.83
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
33,853.00
NVDR (%)
1.19
Estimated free float (%)
66.13
Beta
1.17
Major Shareholders (03/07/2014) Andaman Long Beach Resort Co., Ltd.
9.76 %
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking
7.09 %
Corporation Limited, Fund Services Department Japan Asia Group Limited
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
PF.BK/PF TB Property Development
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
6.59 % FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.117
0.097
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
28.2%
44.3%
Company Profile The Company and subsidiaries are mainly involved with the property development for sale. The projects involve the development of single detached houses, townhouses, and lowrise condominiums. The projects of the company and subsidiaries are located in Bangkok and peripheral aeras as well as potential provinces. CGR 2013
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624-6268 page 1 of 5
Figure 1: Revenue from project sales
Figure 2: Land sales
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: PF's earnings (consolidated with TPROP)
Figure 4: TPROP's earnings
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: Condominium projects under the new brand Original plan Project Value (Btm)
Sold
New plan
Transfer starts
Metro Sky Paholyothin
2,000
18%
2016
Metro Sky Kaset
1,700
36%
Sept-15
The Sky Ratchadapisek
2,000
57%
2016
Re-launched as low-rise CD => Newly-launched at Rama IV =>
Project Value (Btm)
Transfer starts
750
3Q15-4Q15
1,500
3Q15-4Q15
1,815
3Q15-4Q15
1,500
3Q15-4Q15
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 5
Figure 6: Project launches 2014
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research Figure 7: Timeline of the merger deal
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)
2012 9,094 (5,820) 3,273 (2,507) 1,091 324 767 (527) 171 410 (113) (95) 0 (55) 258 0.05 0.04 319 0.06 0.03
2013 10,596 (7,033) 3,563 (3,059) 655 151 503 (706) 232 29 (58) (13) 70 (42) 83 0.01 0.01 27 0.00 0.00
2014E 16,414 (11,007) 5,407 (3,676) 1,930 198 1,732 (804) 193 1,121 (276) 0 83 (53) 981 0.15 0.17 981 0.15 0.05
2015E 19,931 (13,602) 6,329 (5,071) 1,487 229 1,258 (791) 207 673 (244) 0 459 (48) 1,023 0.14 0.14 1,023 0.14 0.05
2016E 18,662 (12,779) 5,883 (5,084) 1,063 263 800 (791) 207 215 (162) 0 510 184 465 0.06 0.05 465 0.06 0.02
BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2012 960 161 13,421 1,095 10,234 25,872 5,419 10,028 17,567 5,641 8,305 25,872
2013 1,235 400 16,961 1,048 11,024 30,668 5,824 12,834 22,022 5,783 8,646 30,668
2014E 6,810 1,252 16,802 4,516 15,575 44,955 1,667 19,566 29,742 7,380 15,358 45,100
2015E 1,662 735 16,513 4,584 14,050 37,544 1,667 15,716 21,684 7,380 15,989 37,673
2016E 1,145 742 16,928 4,820 14,209 37,845 1,667 15,716 21,755 7,380 16,280 38,035
CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash
2012 258 22 324 118 722 (1,177) (3,203) (4,380) 2,848 862 (189) (10) 3,511 (146)
2013 83 (1,220) 151 (937) (1,032) (129) (1,450) (1,579) 2,908 165 (188) 0 2,886 275
2014E 981 0 198 2,483 3,662 (285) (4,894) (5,179) 2,575 0 0 2,266 4,841 3,323
2015E 1,023 0 229 (1,743) (492) (328) (87) (415) (3,850) 0 (343) (48) (4,242) (5,148)
2016E 465 0 263 (346) 383 (378) (348) (726) 0 0 (358) 184 (174) (517)
Free cash flow
(3,662)
(2,657)
(1,517)
(905)
(341)
(0.71)
(0.47)
(0.23)
(0.12)
(0.05)
2012 12.5 8.9 (51.8) 36.0 12.0 8.4 2.8 3.5 (35.8)
2013 16.5 (40.0) (70.8) 33.6 6.2 4.8 0.8 0.3 (58.2)
2014E 54.9 194.8 926.2 32.9 11.8 10.5 6.0 6.0 (22.9)
2015E 21.4 (23.0) (7.0) 31.8 7.5 6.3 5.1 5.1 (20.0)
2016E (6.4) (28.5) (54.5) 31.5 5.7 4.3 2.5 2.5 (20.0)
FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 5
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 5 of 5
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Property Perfect
Sell (TP Bt1.21)
2H14 to be boosted by land sales
Price Bt1.33
PF’s revised launch plan shows a new brand of CD called Metro Luxx, which now consists of four projects in different locations. The upside to our 2014 forecast could come from a higher-than-expected GPM of land sales. Regarding an update on its ski resort in Japan, PF is still in talks with potential buyers, partners and managers, and the management is considering launching low-rise CD on the resort’s empty land plot. Maintain Sell with the TP of Bt1.21, based on 0.65x 2015E PBV or +0.5SD over 2007-14E PBV. Planning to launch new condo brand PF has struggled with EIA approvals at some high-rise CD projects such as Metro Sky Paholyothin, Metro Sky Kaset and The Sky Ratchadapisek. Now, it plans to turn these projects into low-rise condos and re-launch them under the “Metro Luxx” brand. The number of projects to be launched under this brand is four (worth a combined Bt5.6bn), including a new project near Rama IV road; this is on top of the Bt3.9bn in CD projects already planned for launch this year. Three land plots might yield higher GPM than expected PF plans to sell three land plots at Sukhumvit-Bangna (selling price = Bt1.7bn), Chaengwattana (Bt500m) and Krungthep Kreetha (Bt870m). Yesterday, the company hinted that the GPM from selling these plots should be close to 40.0% while our forecast is only 35.0%. This implies 12.4% upside to our 2014E earnings. We will find out the reason behind the upward adjustment from its previous guidance before changing our forecast. The Sukhumvit plot will be realized as revenue first in 3Q14 while the other two should be sold within 4Q14. Might try launching residential projects in Japan When PF bought Kiroro Resort in Japan, it obtained two hotels (with a skiway) and a land plot. The management is considering launching low-rise condos on part of the 80-rai land plot. However, the firm hasn’t given out the timeline or details of this project. Maintain Sell with TP of Bt1.21 (0.65x 2015E PBV) PF’s operation continues to be dragged down by the ski resort in Japan, and the company’s profitability hinges on its ability to sell raw land to interested buyers and other assets to REIT. We would like to see the company get its core operation in order before considering it a sound long-term investment.
Stock Performance (%) 1M
3M
12M
Absolute
-7.64
41.48
49.43
Relative to SET
-8.09
26.61
22.88
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg Sector Paid-up Shares (m)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btm)
9,094
10,596
16,414
19,931
18,662
Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%)
258
83
981
1,023
465
0.05
0.01
0.15
0.14
0.06
-51.8
-70.8
926.2
-7.0
-54.5
Dividend (Bt)
0.03
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.02
BV (Bt)
1.60
1.51
1.99
1.86
1.88
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Norm. PER (x)
21.6
278.6
8.9
9.6
21.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.3
38.4
11.5
15.7
22.5
PBV (x)
0.83
0.88
0.67
0.71
0.71
Dividend yield (%)
2.48
0.00
3.50
3.65
1.66
ROE (%)
2.58
0.49
7.73
6.22
4.02
Net gearing (x)
1.74
2.02
0.94
0.98
1.00
5,782.93
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
8.00/241.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/17.98
52 week High / Low (Bt)
1.57/0.83
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
33,853.00
NVDR (%)
1.19
Estimated free float (%)
66.13
Beta
1.17
Major Shareholders (03/07/2014) Andaman Long Beach Resort Co., Ltd.
9.76 %
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking
7.09 %
Corporation Limited, Fund Services Department Japan Asia Group Limited
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
PF.BK/PF TB Property Development
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
6.59 % FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.117
0.097
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
28.2%
44.3%
Company Profile The Company and subsidiaries are mainly involved with the property development for sale. The projects involve the development of single detached houses, townhouses, and lowrise condominiums. The projects of the company and subsidiaries are located in Bangkok and peripheral aeras as well as potential provinces. CGR 2013
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624-6268 page 1 of 5
Figure 1: Revenue from project sales
Figure 2: Land sales
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: PF's earnings (consolidated with TPROP)
Figure 4: TPROP's earnings
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: Condominium projects under the new brand Original plan Project Value (Btm)
Sold
New plan
Transfer starts
Metro Sky Paholyothin
2,000
18%
2016
Metro Sky Kaset
1,700
36%
Sept-15
The Sky Ratchadapisek
2,000
57%
2016
Re-launched as low-rise CD => Newly-launched at Rama IV =>
Project Value (Btm)
Transfer starts
750
3Q15-4Q15
1,500
3Q15-4Q15
1,815
3Q15-4Q15
1,500
3Q15-4Q15
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 5
Figure 6: Project launches 2014
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research Figure 7: Timeline of the merger deal
Source: PF, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)
2012 9,094 (5,820) 3,273 (2,507) 1,091 324 767 (527) 171 410 (113) (95) 0 (55) 258 0.05 0.04 319 0.06 0.03
2013 10,596 (7,033) 3,563 (3,059) 655 151 503 (706) 232 29 (58) (13) 70 (42) 83 0.01 0.01 27 0.00 0.00
2014E 16,414 (11,007) 5,407 (3,676) 1,930 198 1,732 (804) 193 1,121 (276) 0 83 (53) 981 0.15 0.17 981 0.15 0.05
2015E 19,931 (13,602) 6,329 (5,071) 1,487 229 1,258 (791) 207 673 (244) 0 459 (48) 1,023 0.14 0.14 1,023 0.14 0.05
2016E 18,662 (12,779) 5,883 (5,084) 1,063 263 800 (791) 207 215 (162) 0 510 184 465 0.06 0.05 465 0.06 0.02
BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2012 960 161 13,421 1,095 10,234 25,872 5,419 10,028 17,567 5,641 8,305 25,872
2013 1,235 400 16,961 1,048 11,024 30,668 5,824 12,834 22,022 5,783 8,646 30,668
2014E 6,810 1,252 16,802 4,516 15,575 44,955 1,667 19,566 29,742 7,380 15,358 45,100
2015E 1,662 735 16,513 4,584 14,050 37,544 1,667 15,716 21,684 7,380 15,989 37,673
2016E 1,145 742 16,928 4,820 14,209 37,845 1,667 15,716 21,755 7,380 16,280 38,035
CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash
2012 258 22 324 118 722 (1,177) (3,203) (4,380) 2,848 862 (189) (10) 3,511 (146)
2013 83 (1,220) 151 (937) (1,032) (129) (1,450) (1,579) 2,908 165 (188) 0 2,886 275
2014E 981 0 198 2,483 3,662 (285) (4,894) (5,179) 2,575 0 0 2,266 4,841 3,323
2015E 1,023 0 229 (1,743) (492) (328) (87) (415) (3,850) 0 (343) (48) (4,242) (5,148)
2016E 465 0 263 (346) 383 (378) (348) (726) 0 0 (358) 184 (174) (517)
Free cash flow
(3,662)
(2,657)
(1,517)
(905)
(341)
(0.71)
(0.47)
(0.23)
(0.12)
(0.05)
2012 12.5 8.9 (51.8) 36.0 12.0 8.4 2.8 3.5 (35.8)
2013 16.5 (40.0) (70.8) 33.6 6.2 4.8 0.8 0.3 (58.2)
2014E 54.9 194.8 926.2 32.9 11.8 10.5 6.0 6.0 (22.9)
2015E 21.4 (23.0) (7.0) 31.8 7.5 6.3 5.1 5.1 (20.0)
2016E (6.4) (28.5) (54.5) 31.5 5.7 4.3 2.5 2.5 (20.0)
FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 5
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
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8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
