POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS The following section provides a ...
POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS
The following section provides a population profile for the district with a breakdown by ward, age and ethnicity. This data allows for an insight into the demographics of Newark and Sherwood and helps in developing a greater understanding of the reasons why areas are different. The data will also help to identify how resources and efforts can be better directed to improve the areas of greatest need within the district. Therefore as the context for understanding people and places in Newark and Sherwood this information is of direct relevance to all the indicators that follow within this report. Population Estimates
The table below shows that Newark and Sherwood, based on midyear population estimates for 2007, has a population currently at 112,600 which is similar to the population levels found in the other Nottinghamshire districts. Local Authority Area Ashfield Bassetlaw Broxtowe Gedling Mansfield Newark & Sherwood Rushcliffe Nottinghamshire Nottingham
Population Estimate 115900 111700 110900 111700 100100 112600 109000 771900 288700
Based on mid-year population estimates for 2006 the following map looks more closely at the population of Newark and Sherwood by showing the percentage share of the district population living within each ward and the breakdown of ward populations by age groups. The map shows that the areas with the highest share of the district’s population are found to the west of the district and within the town of Newark-on-Trent. The ward with the highest share of the district’s population is Ollerton with 6.06% and Southwell East is the ward found to have the lowest proportion of the district’s population with 1.84%.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 30
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
1:180,000
Population Demographics (2006)
Percentage of District Population
Age groups by ward
1 to 2% 2 to 3%
0 to 14 15 to 24
3 to 4%
25 to 49
4 to 5%
50 to 64
5 to 7%
65 and over
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
0
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
1.5
3
6 Kilometers
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In terms of the age profile for Newark and Sherwood as a whole the population is divided as follows: Age Group 0 to 14 years 15 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 years and over
Percentage of District Total Population 17.66 11.36 25.88 27.41 17.69
This shows that the population of Newark and Sherwood is an ageing one, with people of retirement age making up nearly a fifth of the population. In considering age groups by ward there are several areas that are worthwhile noting, these are: Clipstone has the highest proportion of children with 22.07% and the second lowest proportion of older people of retirement age with 13.95%, while Castle has the lowest proportion of children with 14.42%; Southwell West has the highest proportion of young people aged between 15 and 24 with 13.99% and Collingham and Meering has the lowest with 7.91%; Lowdham has the highest proportion of working aged people between 25 and 64 with 57.85%, while Devon has the lowest with only 46.79% over 10% less than Lowdham. Southwell East has the highest proportion of older people over 65 with 25.98% and in contrast Bridge has the lowest with 13.37% nearly half the proportion found in Southwell East.
Population Projections
As well as producing population estimates, the Office for National Statistics has also produced a range of population projections based on modelling techniques applied to mid-year population estimates. Births, deaths and other factors such as migration are taken into account when the data is modelled. As the projections are based on models they should only be used as a guide for future population trends. Firstly, looking at population change up to 2007 the tables below show that Newark and Sherwood has seen one of the most significant changes in population within Nottinghamshire. This can be seen with short-term change in population between 2000 and 2007 estimated at 6.63% only marginally behind the highest growth in Nottinghamshire (Nottingham with 6.65%). In terms of long-term population change, Newark and Sherwood is estimated to have had an increase of 9.21% between 1991 and 2007, with only Rushcliffe estimated to have seen a larger increase in population with a growth of 10.66%. These figures clearly show that Newark and Sherwood is a growth region with short-term and long-term population change both well above the average for Nottinghamshire and Great Britain.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 32
Short-term change in resident population (2000-2007) District % National Rank Nottingham 6.65 68 Newark and Sherwood 6.63 70 Ashfield 5.27 120 Bassetlaw 4.59 142 Rushcliffe 4.01 172 Broxtowe 2.97 220 Mansfield 1.21 315 Gedling 0.18 361 Nottinghamshire: 4.38 Great Britain: 3.52
Long-term change in resident population (1991-2007) District % National Rank Rushcliffe 10.66 126 Newark and Sherwood 9.21 155 Bassetlaw 6.58 211 Ashfield 6.43 214 Nottingham 3.33 286 Broxtowe 2.5 298 Gedling 1.09 324 Mansfield -0.89 360 Nottinghamshire: 4.55 Great Britain: 6.06
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Looking at population projections for the future it is clear that Newark and Sherwood is likely to see further growth both in the short-term and longer-term. For the period between 2004 and 2013 it is estimated that there will be a 7.99% increase in Newark and Sherwood’s population, while for 2004 to 2029 it is predicted that Newark and Sherwood’s population will have grown by some 19.89%. As the tables below show, these projections are the highest in Nottinghamshire and are considerably higher than the average projections for England.
Projected change in Total Population (2004-2029) District % Newark and Sherwood 19.89 Rushcliffe 17.09 Bassetlaw 16.59 Ashfield 13.58 Broxtowe 8.28 Gedling 5.3 Nottingham 4.07 Mansfield 2.84 Nottinghamshire: 8.3 England: 11.91
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
National Rank 77 101 106 145 237 285 302 308
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Page 33
Projected change in Total Population (2004-2013) District % Newark and Sherwood 7.99 Rushcliffe 6.82 Bassetlaw 6.44 Ashfield 5.29 Broxtowe 2.94 Nottingham 1.34 Gedling 0.9 Mansfield 0.2 Nottinghamshire: 2.98 England: 4.49
National Rank 68 95 102 133 231 283 301 315
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Based on these projections it is apparent that in Newark and Sherwood there are likely to be changes in the composition of the community. The significant growth in population will therefore test the authority’s ability to meet the needs of a diversifying population, particularly in terms of services provision and infrastructure in new communities, but also in resourcing already established communities. As well as the need to consider the pace of population growth there is also a need to take into account the likely age distribution of an expanding population in Newark and Sherwood. As has already been stated the most recent age profile of Newark and Sherwood shows that the population is an ageing one, and based on the current picture future projections suggest that this trend is likely to continue. The following charts show the projected changes in the population of Newark and Sherwood and the rest of Nottinghamshire for several key age groups:
Projected % change in Total Population aged between 0 & 14 years old 0
% Change
-5 -10 Short-term 2004-2013 -15
Long-term 2004-2029
-20 -25
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
District
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
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% Change
Projected % change in Total Population aged between 15 & 64 years old 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
Short-term 2004-2013 Long-term 2004-2029
District
% Change
Projected % change in Total Population aged 65 years and over 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Short-term 2004-2013 Long-term 2004-2029
District
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STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
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% Change
Projected % change in Total Population aged 75 years and over 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Short-term 2004-2013 Long-term 2004-2029
District
In considering these charts Newark and Sherwood is expected to see the following changes: Nearly a 15% reduction in the total population aged between 0 and 14 years old by 2029; The highest decline in Nottinghamshire for the population aged between 15 and 64 years old, where by 2013 this age group is predicted to have declined by 2.71% and by 2029 there may be 9.65% fewer 15 to 64 year olds; In contrast, the population aged 65 years old and over is expected to grow by some 20% by 2013 and nearly 55% by 2029; To further emphasise the ageing nature of Newark and Sherwood’s population it is envisaged that the population aged 75 years old and over is to have grown by nearly 70% by 2029.
The following chart shows these changes in Newark and Sherwood’s population and clearly highlights the projected population peak in the older age groups that may place particular strain on local services as older people tend to have higher support needs than other age groups. Therefore, providing an adequate level of services for the older age groups is likely to be a key challenge in Newark and Sherwood in the future.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
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Projected % change in Total Population for Newark and Sherwood 70 60 50 % Change
40 30
Short-term 2004-2013
20
Long-term 2004-2029
10 0 -10 -20
Aged between 0 & 14 years old
Aged Aged 65 between 15 years and & 64 years over old Age Groups
Aged 75 years and over
As well as service provision there are other issues surrounding population change, these include: the challenge of providing a good quality mix of housing to cater for a changing population; the ability to provide the infrastructure for all age groups; the need for more local employment to stem the social, economic and environmental pressure created by commuting; the impact on the natural environment; the need to maintain a good quality of life for present and future residents of Newark and Sherwood. These issues will need to be considered when setting any future directions for the district.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 37
Ethnicity & Migration While there are concerns about how the district would cope with a growing population and changing demographic, there is also the need to recognise that increased population can also bring with it a more diverse community and more opportunities. In considering the ethnicity of Newark and Sherwood’s population, the 2001 census showed that just over 3% of the population originated from outside of the UK, a comparatively low level when compared to regional and national averages. The following map shows the district percentage of residents originating from outside of the UK by wards and the breakdown of non UK ethnic groups by wards for 2001. The map shows that the wards with the highest district percentage of residents that were not born in the UK were all found in the town of Newark-on-Trent, with the exception of Lowdham with 6.86% of the district’s non-UK population. The breakdown of non UK ethnic groups for the district as a whole showed that the main non UK groups were the Republic of Ireland, Western Europe, Other EU Countries and Asia. At the ward level, with such low numbers of non UK residents there were no discernible patterns of where different minority groups choose to settle and instead it was found that each ward had a small mix of minority ethnic groups. Although ethnic minority groups still remain relatively small in the district there have been some recent noticeable trends of international migration into the area that need to be measured and monitored in order to understand the impact on the local population and to address any change in the needs of local communities. International migration can have substantial impacts on population size and composition, on the labour market and on community cohesion. At the same time international migration can present challenges for the provision, funding and delivery of public services at the local level, where the resources to respond fully might not be available. Therefore, in Newark and Sherwood it is strategically important to accurately identify the level of international migration and to consider the issues and challenges surrounding a changing population. Although currently there is no single data source that provides comprehensive information on migration at national, regional and local levels, there are some sources that provide valuable insight into the current situation. The Office for National Statistics Total International Migration (TIM) estimates show that for the East Midlands in 2007 there was an inflow of 33,000 and an outflow of 19,000 giving an increase in population for the region of 14,000. An important source of migration data for Newark and Sherwood is the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) as it focuses on those citizens of the eight (‘A8’) Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) which became Member States of the EU in May 2004 who register to work as employees in the UK. WRS data is provided on a quarterly basis and is derived from the postcode of the employer and is therefore workplace based.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 38
³
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL District Percentage of Residents Originating from outside of the UK by Ward
1:180,000
Non UK Ethnic Groups
Republic of Ireland
Other Western Europe Other EU Countries Non EU Countries Eastern Europe Africa
Percentage Non UK by Ward
Asia
North America
South America Oceania Other
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
1 to 3% 3 to 5% 5 to 6% 6 to 8%
8 to 10%
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
0
1.25
2.5
5 Miles
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In Newark and Sherwood the WRS data shows that for the period of April 2006 to June 2008 there were 1,215 approved applications; the table1 and chart below show the nationality of applicants during this period and that the vast majority of A8 migrants in Newark and Sherwood originate from Poland. The data also shows that for the period between April 2006 and December 2007 the number of A8 nationals working as employees in the UK showed a general increase, whereas after December 2007 the number of worker registrations has tended to decline. It should be noted that the numbers recorded are likely to represent an under-estimate of total in-flows of A8 migrant workers because the self-employed and those who are working illegally are excluded.
WRS Approved Applications by Nationality (April 2006 to June 2008) in Newark and Sherwood Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia Rep Apr 06 – Jun 06 5 0 0 0 10 40 5 0 Jul 06 – Sep 06 0 0 0 10 20 115 0 0 Oct 06 – Dec 06 5 5 0 5 20 140 0 0 Jan 07 – Mar 07 0 0 5 0 10 100 5 0 Apr 07 – Jun 07 5 † † 10 25 120 † Jul 07 – Sep 07 † 5 20 155 5 Oct 07 – Dec 07 † 5 20 175 5 Jan 08 – Mar 08 5 10 90 † Apr 08 – Jun 08 † † 10 50 Grand Total
Total 55 145 175 125 165 180 200 110 60 1,215
The following are some of the benefits of this in-migration: Newark and Sherwood’s population is getting older, meaning that more working age people are needed to prop up the economy. As migrant workers are on average younger than UKborn people, they are less likely to need to claim a pension and will contribute to the economy for a longer period.
1
The data in this publication are based on Management Information, are provisional and may be subject to change. The data are not National Statistics. This table shows registered workers rather than the number of applications made. The figures are for initial applications only (not multiple applications, where an individual is doing more than one job simultaneously, nor re-registrations, where an individual has changed employers). Currently 94% of approved applications have an accurate post code. Applications where post codes could not be matched to the Office of National Statistics database are excluded from this dataset One person of another nationality was recorded as being approved on the Worker Registration Scheme between May 2004 and March 2006 Figures based on Employers address and the date the application is approved, rather than the date on the application form as used and published in the Accession Monitoring Report. Figures are rounded to nearest 5 "†" Indicates 1 or 2 "-" Indicates Nil Because of rounding, figures may not add up to totals shown
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 40
There is a current shortage of highly-skilled people in key sectors such as the NHS, public services and the IT industry which is being met by new migrants. As Newark and Sherwood’s population becomes more highly skilled and educated, there may be more jobs that people chose not to do because they are viewed as less attractive. All of these factors have come together to create demand for migrant labour.
WRS Approved Applications by Nationality (April 2006 to June 2008) in Newark and Sherwood 200 180
No. of Migrants
160 Apr 06 - Jun 06
140
Jul 06 - Sep 06
120
Oct 06 - Dec 06
100
Jan 07 - Mar07
80
Apr 07 - Jun 07
60
Jul 07 - Sep 07
40
Oct 07 - Dec 07
20
Jan 08 - Mar 08
0 Czech Rep
Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia
Apr 08 - Jun 08
Nationality
At the same time, as Newark and Sherwood’s population size and composition continues to change there is a need to be aware that community identity and cohesion can be threatened by more diversity in the population if new residents are not effectively welcomed into the area and allowed to form part of the new fabric of the community. Therefore there is a need to encourage social inclusion by enabling different groups of people to feel valued, have equality of opportunity and ensure they get on well together. An aspect of this process of inclusion is providing the necessary infrastructure and services need by new residents for a good quality of life. Overall there is the need to monitor the impacts of population growth that has already occurred in order to prevent some of the negative effects of future growth. Emphasis should be placed on holistic planning with local communities in Newark and Sherwood in order to efficiently and effectively address the social, economic, environmental and infrastructure needs of the present and future population.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 41
The following section provides a population profile for the district with a breakdown by ward, age and ethnicity. This data allows for an insight into the demographics of Newark and Sherwood and helps in developing a greater understanding of the reasons why areas are different. The data will also help to identify how resources and efforts can be better directed to improve the areas of greatest need within the district. Therefore as the context for understanding people and places in Newark and Sherwood this information is of direct relevance to all the indicators that follow within this report. Population Estimates
The table below shows that Newark and Sherwood, based on midyear population estimates for 2007, has a population currently at 112,600 which is similar to the population levels found in the other Nottinghamshire districts. Local Authority Area Ashfield Bassetlaw Broxtowe Gedling Mansfield Newark & Sherwood Rushcliffe Nottinghamshire Nottingham
Population Estimate 115900 111700 110900 111700 100100 112600 109000 771900 288700
Based on mid-year population estimates for 2006 the following map looks more closely at the population of Newark and Sherwood by showing the percentage share of the district population living within each ward and the breakdown of ward populations by age groups. The map shows that the areas with the highest share of the district’s population are found to the west of the district and within the town of Newark-on-Trent. The ward with the highest share of the district’s population is Ollerton with 6.06% and Southwell East is the ward found to have the lowest proportion of the district’s population with 1.84%.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 30
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
1:180,000
Population Demographics (2006)
Percentage of District Population
Age groups by ward
1 to 2% 2 to 3%
0 to 14 15 to 24
3 to 4%
25 to 49
4 to 5%
50 to 64
5 to 7%
65 and over
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
0
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
1.5
3
6 Kilometers
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In terms of the age profile for Newark and Sherwood as a whole the population is divided as follows: Age Group 0 to 14 years 15 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 years and over
Percentage of District Total Population 17.66 11.36 25.88 27.41 17.69
This shows that the population of Newark and Sherwood is an ageing one, with people of retirement age making up nearly a fifth of the population. In considering age groups by ward there are several areas that are worthwhile noting, these are: Clipstone has the highest proportion of children with 22.07% and the second lowest proportion of older people of retirement age with 13.95%, while Castle has the lowest proportion of children with 14.42%; Southwell West has the highest proportion of young people aged between 15 and 24 with 13.99% and Collingham and Meering has the lowest with 7.91%; Lowdham has the highest proportion of working aged people between 25 and 64 with 57.85%, while Devon has the lowest with only 46.79% over 10% less than Lowdham. Southwell East has the highest proportion of older people over 65 with 25.98% and in contrast Bridge has the lowest with 13.37% nearly half the proportion found in Southwell East.
Population Projections
As well as producing population estimates, the Office for National Statistics has also produced a range of population projections based on modelling techniques applied to mid-year population estimates. Births, deaths and other factors such as migration are taken into account when the data is modelled. As the projections are based on models they should only be used as a guide for future population trends. Firstly, looking at population change up to 2007 the tables below show that Newark and Sherwood has seen one of the most significant changes in population within Nottinghamshire. This can be seen with short-term change in population between 2000 and 2007 estimated at 6.63% only marginally behind the highest growth in Nottinghamshire (Nottingham with 6.65%). In terms of long-term population change, Newark and Sherwood is estimated to have had an increase of 9.21% between 1991 and 2007, with only Rushcliffe estimated to have seen a larger increase in population with a growth of 10.66%. These figures clearly show that Newark and Sherwood is a growth region with short-term and long-term population change both well above the average for Nottinghamshire and Great Britain.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
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Short-term change in resident population (2000-2007) District % National Rank Nottingham 6.65 68 Newark and Sherwood 6.63 70 Ashfield 5.27 120 Bassetlaw 4.59 142 Rushcliffe 4.01 172 Broxtowe 2.97 220 Mansfield 1.21 315 Gedling 0.18 361 Nottinghamshire: 4.38 Great Britain: 3.52
Long-term change in resident population (1991-2007) District % National Rank Rushcliffe 10.66 126 Newark and Sherwood 9.21 155 Bassetlaw 6.58 211 Ashfield 6.43 214 Nottingham 3.33 286 Broxtowe 2.5 298 Gedling 1.09 324 Mansfield -0.89 360 Nottinghamshire: 4.55 Great Britain: 6.06
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Looking at population projections for the future it is clear that Newark and Sherwood is likely to see further growth both in the short-term and longer-term. For the period between 2004 and 2013 it is estimated that there will be a 7.99% increase in Newark and Sherwood’s population, while for 2004 to 2029 it is predicted that Newark and Sherwood’s population will have grown by some 19.89%. As the tables below show, these projections are the highest in Nottinghamshire and are considerably higher than the average projections for England.
Projected change in Total Population (2004-2029) District % Newark and Sherwood 19.89 Rushcliffe 17.09 Bassetlaw 16.59 Ashfield 13.58 Broxtowe 8.28 Gedling 5.3 Nottingham 4.07 Mansfield 2.84 Nottinghamshire: 8.3 England: 11.91
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
National Rank 77 101 106 145 237 285 302 308
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Page 33
Projected change in Total Population (2004-2013) District % Newark and Sherwood 7.99 Rushcliffe 6.82 Bassetlaw 6.44 Ashfield 5.29 Broxtowe 2.94 Nottingham 1.34 Gedling 0.9 Mansfield 0.2 Nottinghamshire: 2.98 England: 4.49
National Rank 68 95 102 133 231 283 301 315
Nottinghamshire Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Based on these projections it is apparent that in Newark and Sherwood there are likely to be changes in the composition of the community. The significant growth in population will therefore test the authority’s ability to meet the needs of a diversifying population, particularly in terms of services provision and infrastructure in new communities, but also in resourcing already established communities. As well as the need to consider the pace of population growth there is also a need to take into account the likely age distribution of an expanding population in Newark and Sherwood. As has already been stated the most recent age profile of Newark and Sherwood shows that the population is an ageing one, and based on the current picture future projections suggest that this trend is likely to continue. The following charts show the projected changes in the population of Newark and Sherwood and the rest of Nottinghamshire for several key age groups:
Projected % change in Total Population aged between 0 & 14 years old 0
% Change
-5 -10 Short-term 2004-2013 -15
Long-term 2004-2029
-20 -25
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
District
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 34
% Change
Projected % change in Total Population aged between 15 & 64 years old 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
Short-term 2004-2013 Long-term 2004-2029
District
% Change
Projected % change in Total Population aged 65 years and over 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Short-term 2004-2013 Long-term 2004-2029
District
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STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
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% Change
Projected % change in Total Population aged 75 years and over 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Short-term 2004-2013 Long-term 2004-2029
District
In considering these charts Newark and Sherwood is expected to see the following changes: Nearly a 15% reduction in the total population aged between 0 and 14 years old by 2029; The highest decline in Nottinghamshire for the population aged between 15 and 64 years old, where by 2013 this age group is predicted to have declined by 2.71% and by 2029 there may be 9.65% fewer 15 to 64 year olds; In contrast, the population aged 65 years old and over is expected to grow by some 20% by 2013 and nearly 55% by 2029; To further emphasise the ageing nature of Newark and Sherwood’s population it is envisaged that the population aged 75 years old and over is to have grown by nearly 70% by 2029.
The following chart shows these changes in Newark and Sherwood’s population and clearly highlights the projected population peak in the older age groups that may place particular strain on local services as older people tend to have higher support needs than other age groups. Therefore, providing an adequate level of services for the older age groups is likely to be a key challenge in Newark and Sherwood in the future.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 36
Projected % change in Total Population for Newark and Sherwood 70 60 50 % Change
40 30
Short-term 2004-2013
20
Long-term 2004-2029
10 0 -10 -20
Aged between 0 & 14 years old
Aged Aged 65 between 15 years and & 64 years over old Age Groups
Aged 75 years and over
As well as service provision there are other issues surrounding population change, these include: the challenge of providing a good quality mix of housing to cater for a changing population; the ability to provide the infrastructure for all age groups; the need for more local employment to stem the social, economic and environmental pressure created by commuting; the impact on the natural environment; the need to maintain a good quality of life for present and future residents of Newark and Sherwood. These issues will need to be considered when setting any future directions for the district.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 37
Ethnicity & Migration While there are concerns about how the district would cope with a growing population and changing demographic, there is also the need to recognise that increased population can also bring with it a more diverse community and more opportunities. In considering the ethnicity of Newark and Sherwood’s population, the 2001 census showed that just over 3% of the population originated from outside of the UK, a comparatively low level when compared to regional and national averages. The following map shows the district percentage of residents originating from outside of the UK by wards and the breakdown of non UK ethnic groups by wards for 2001. The map shows that the wards with the highest district percentage of residents that were not born in the UK were all found in the town of Newark-on-Trent, with the exception of Lowdham with 6.86% of the district’s non-UK population. The breakdown of non UK ethnic groups for the district as a whole showed that the main non UK groups were the Republic of Ireland, Western Europe, Other EU Countries and Asia. At the ward level, with such low numbers of non UK residents there were no discernible patterns of where different minority groups choose to settle and instead it was found that each ward had a small mix of minority ethnic groups. Although ethnic minority groups still remain relatively small in the district there have been some recent noticeable trends of international migration into the area that need to be measured and monitored in order to understand the impact on the local population and to address any change in the needs of local communities. International migration can have substantial impacts on population size and composition, on the labour market and on community cohesion. At the same time international migration can present challenges for the provision, funding and delivery of public services at the local level, where the resources to respond fully might not be available. Therefore, in Newark and Sherwood it is strategically important to accurately identify the level of international migration and to consider the issues and challenges surrounding a changing population. Although currently there is no single data source that provides comprehensive information on migration at national, regional and local levels, there are some sources that provide valuable insight into the current situation. The Office for National Statistics Total International Migration (TIM) estimates show that for the East Midlands in 2007 there was an inflow of 33,000 and an outflow of 19,000 giving an increase in population for the region of 14,000. An important source of migration data for Newark and Sherwood is the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) as it focuses on those citizens of the eight (‘A8’) Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) which became Member States of the EU in May 2004 who register to work as employees in the UK. WRS data is provided on a quarterly basis and is derived from the postcode of the employer and is therefore workplace based.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 38
³
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL District Percentage of Residents Originating from outside of the UK by Ward
1:180,000
Non UK Ethnic Groups
Republic of Ireland
Other Western Europe Other EU Countries Non EU Countries Eastern Europe Africa
Percentage Non UK by Ward
Asia
North America
South America Oceania Other
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
1 to 3% 3 to 5% 5 to 6% 6 to 8%
8 to 10%
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
0
1.25
2.5
5 Miles
Page 39
In Newark and Sherwood the WRS data shows that for the period of April 2006 to June 2008 there were 1,215 approved applications; the table1 and chart below show the nationality of applicants during this period and that the vast majority of A8 migrants in Newark and Sherwood originate from Poland. The data also shows that for the period between April 2006 and December 2007 the number of A8 nationals working as employees in the UK showed a general increase, whereas after December 2007 the number of worker registrations has tended to decline. It should be noted that the numbers recorded are likely to represent an under-estimate of total in-flows of A8 migrant workers because the self-employed and those who are working illegally are excluded.
WRS Approved Applications by Nationality (April 2006 to June 2008) in Newark and Sherwood Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia Rep Apr 06 – Jun 06 5 0 0 0 10 40 5 0 Jul 06 – Sep 06 0 0 0 10 20 115 0 0 Oct 06 – Dec 06 5 5 0 5 20 140 0 0 Jan 07 – Mar 07 0 0 5 0 10 100 5 0 Apr 07 – Jun 07 5 † † 10 25 120 † Jul 07 – Sep 07 † 5 20 155 5 Oct 07 – Dec 07 † 5 20 175 5 Jan 08 – Mar 08 5 10 90 † Apr 08 – Jun 08 † † 10 50 Grand Total
Total 55 145 175 125 165 180 200 110 60 1,215
The following are some of the benefits of this in-migration: Newark and Sherwood’s population is getting older, meaning that more working age people are needed to prop up the economy. As migrant workers are on average younger than UKborn people, they are less likely to need to claim a pension and will contribute to the economy for a longer period.
1
The data in this publication are based on Management Information, are provisional and may be subject to change. The data are not National Statistics. This table shows registered workers rather than the number of applications made. The figures are for initial applications only (not multiple applications, where an individual is doing more than one job simultaneously, nor re-registrations, where an individual has changed employers). Currently 94% of approved applications have an accurate post code. Applications where post codes could not be matched to the Office of National Statistics database are excluded from this dataset One person of another nationality was recorded as being approved on the Worker Registration Scheme between May 2004 and March 2006 Figures based on Employers address and the date the application is approved, rather than the date on the application form as used and published in the Accession Monitoring Report. Figures are rounded to nearest 5 "†" Indicates 1 or 2 "-" Indicates Nil Because of rounding, figures may not add up to totals shown
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 40
There is a current shortage of highly-skilled people in key sectors such as the NHS, public services and the IT industry which is being met by new migrants. As Newark and Sherwood’s population becomes more highly skilled and educated, there may be more jobs that people chose not to do because they are viewed as less attractive. All of these factors have come together to create demand for migrant labour.
WRS Approved Applications by Nationality (April 2006 to June 2008) in Newark and Sherwood 200 180
No. of Migrants
160 Apr 06 - Jun 06
140
Jul 06 - Sep 06
120
Oct 06 - Dec 06
100
Jan 07 - Mar07
80
Apr 07 - Jun 07
60
Jul 07 - Sep 07
40
Oct 07 - Dec 07
20
Jan 08 - Mar 08
0 Czech Rep
Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia
Apr 08 - Jun 08
Nationality
At the same time, as Newark and Sherwood’s population size and composition continues to change there is a need to be aware that community identity and cohesion can be threatened by more diversity in the population if new residents are not effectively welcomed into the area and allowed to form part of the new fabric of the community. Therefore there is a need to encourage social inclusion by enabling different groups of people to feel valued, have equality of opportunity and ensure they get on well together. An aspect of this process of inclusion is providing the necessary infrastructure and services need by new residents for a good quality of life. Overall there is the need to monitor the impacts of population growth that has already occurred in order to prevent some of the negative effects of future growth. Emphasis should be placed on holistic planning with local communities in Newark and Sherwood in order to efficiently and effectively address the social, economic, environmental and infrastructure needs of the present and future population.
NEWARK & SHERWOOD DISTRICT COUNCIL
STATE OF THE DISTRICT 2009
Page 41
