Presentation (PDF) - Northwestern University Transportation Center
AN OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH A M E R I C A N R A I L C A R F L E E T: T H E R I S E … T H E FA L L … T H E ? ? ? Presented by Richard Kloster to the Northwestern University Transportation Center Sandhouse Gang January 26, 2010
Contents Recent Fleet Performance Today’s Fleet
Box Car
Covered Hopper
Open Top Hopper
Gondola
Flat Car
Tank Car
Looking Ahead
Recent Fleet Performance
US Freight Market 7.0
Rail
Pipeline
Water
CAGR
Truck
6.0
‘92- ’02- ’09’01 ‘08 ‘11 Truck
4.0
PipeWater line
Trillion Ton-miles
5.0
3.0 2.0
Rail
1.0
Source: FTR, AAR, DOT, BTS, DOC
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0.0
5.0% 1.5% -0.9%
-3.1%-1.8%-2.5%
0.2% -1.0% 0.1%
4.1% 2.2% -3.2%
US Rail Car Market 2,000 Box
CH
OTH
Gon
Flat
‘92’01
Tank
1,600
’09‘11
3.3% 2.9% -0.1% 4.7% 2.8% -3.1%
600
Gon
800
9.2% 2.4% -2.2%
OTH
1,000
2.9% 1.9% -2.8%
CH
1,200
2.4% 3.0% -1.8%
Box
Billion Ton-miles
1,400
Flat Tank
1,800
CAGR ’02‘08
0.3% -1.8%-4.6%
400
200 0
Source: FTR, AAR
North American Rail Car Fleet 100
1,800
1,600 50
1,400 1,200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 * 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 * 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
1,000 800
-50 600 400
-100
New Cars -150
Source: FTR, ARCI, AAR
Retirements
Fleet Size
200 0
* 1997 Canada added & 2002 Mexico added
Economically Derived Demand vs. Rail Car Deliveries EDD 3 Year Wt Avg.
Rail Car Deliveries
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 ’96-’99 (38,000)
20,000 0
’01-’03 32,000
'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ’90-’93
-20,000 -40,000 -60,000 -80,000
Source: FTR
(106,000)
’08-’10 (144,000)
Today’s Fleet
Fleet Segmentation Total = 1.7M
2008 Railcars in service
Heavy Duty
80
Pneumatic
0.2
0.2
Mechanical
RBL/RB B
GP small
Pressure
Other
Other
Covered Gons
Coal
CH
Source: ARES, Inc., AAR
C/E
Mill Gons
Tank
Box
Gondola
C-Beams
GP cap/medium
Bulkheads
Gen Service & Other Flatcars
Gravilty
0
0.1
Tri-level
Steel Coal Gondolas
40
20
0.2
Open Top Hoppers
Flat
IM Conventional
GP large
F/G
60
0.2
Other
IM Low Profile
Specialty
0.3
IM Double Stack
0.5
Pressure differential
Bi-level
100%
Intermodal
2009 North American Rail Car Fleet, 1.6 million cars
Box Car Fleet
Box Car Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
B, 50' C/E, 50', 100t Class 1 39%
C/E, 50', 70t
Class 2/3 11%
C/E, 60', 100t F/G, 50', 100t F/G, 60', 100t F/G, 86' Other Mechanical Refer
Shipper 2%
RBL/RB 0
207,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
100,000
Lessor 48%
Box Car Traffic Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Packaging Paper Printing Paper Auto Parts Wood Panels Pulp Beverages Scrap Paper Canned Goods Aluminum Appliances Other
Forest Products 58%
Other 11%
Transpor tation 13%
Food & Ag 18%
400
200
0
1,600,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Box Car Fleet Age Distribution 90,000 80,000
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000
30,000 20,000
Average Fleet Age B, 50' C/E, 50', 100t
C/E, 50', 70t C/E, 60', 100t F/G, 50', 100t F/G, 60', 100t F/G, 86' Other
10,000
Mechanical Refer
0
RBL/RB 0
207,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
50
Box Car Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
40
30
20
Plate F, 50’, 286k Plate F, 60’, 268k Mechanical refers, Plate F, 60’/70’, 268k
Key car characteristics 10
-10
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-20 -30
Other important characteristics
-40 -50
Source: RSI / ARCI
Plate size GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Inside length Draft gear / cushion units
Door type & width Floor type / strength Interior wall / lining
Covered Hopper Fleet
Covered Hopper Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
Specialty Class 1 20%
PD5 PD3
Class 2/3 3%
Plastic Pellet Super Gravity Jumbo Gravity Large Gravity Shipper 28%
Medium Gravity Small Gravity 0
50,000 100,000 150,000
528,000 cars (2009) AAR
Lessor 49%
Covered Hopper Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Corn Plastic Resins Wheat Cement Soybeans Soybean Flour… Potash Soda Ash Sand Superphosphate Other
Agricultu re 59%
Other 3% Mining 18%
PetroChemica l 20% 1,500 1,000
500
0
4,450,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Covered Hopper Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
120,000 Specialty 100,000 80,000
PD5 PD3 Plastic Pellet
60,000
40,000
Super Gravity Jumbo Gravity Large Gravity
20,000 Medium Gravity 0
Small Gravity 0
528,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
Covered Hopper Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
40
30
20
Gravity, 5150 cuf, 286k Gravity, 3300 cuf, 286k Gravity, 6300 cuf, 286k Pneumatic, 6200 cuf, 268k Pressure differential, 5600 cuf, 286k Pressure differential, 3300 cuf, 286k
Key car characteristics 10
Unloading system
Cubic capacity GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt.
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-10
Other important characteristics
-20
Source: RSI / ARCI
Hatch type Gate type / size Lining
Open Top Hopper Fleet
Open Top Hopper Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
Other OTH 70t
Class 1 37%
Other OTH >=3600
Class 2/3 8%
Other OTH < 3600 Ore Jennies =3600) Coal Steel nonRotary (< 3600)
Shipper 31%
Coal Aluminum 0
187,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
100,000
Lessor 24%
Open Top Hopper Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Bituminous Coal Crushed Stone
Mining 92%
Iron Concentrates Phosphate Rock Coal Coke
Petroleum Coke Wood Chips Lignite Coal
Coke
Other 0.4% Forest Agricultu Products re 1% 3%
PetroChemica l 4%
Aggregates Other 5,000
2,500
0
6,100,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Open Top Hopper Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
45,000 40,000
Other OTH (70 ton)
35,000
Other OTH (>=3600)
30,000
Other OTH (< 3600)
25,000 20,000
15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Ore Jennies (=3600) Coal Steel non-Rotary (>=3600) Coal Steel non-Rotary (< 3600)
Coal Aluminum 0
187,000 cars (2009) AAR
20
40
60
Open Top Hopper Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
Aluminum, 286k, 4300 cuf, auto discharge gates, rotary coupler Hybrid Alum/Stainless, 286k, rotary Ore OTH, 286k, 1300 cuf, 31’
Aggregate OTH, 286k, 2500 cuf, 42’-45’
20
15
10 5
Key car characteristics
-5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-10
-15 -20 -25
Source: RSI / ARCI
Body material GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Cubic capacity Coupler type Gate type
Other important characteristics
# hopper outlets Outside length
Gondola Fleet
Gondola Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
Other Gons
Class 2/3 7%
Class 1 37%
Mill Gons
Covered Gons
Steel Coal Gons Aluminum Coal Gons
Shipper 25% 0
272,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
100,000
Lessor 31%
Gondola Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Coal
Scrap Steel
Mining 79%
Steel Coils Crushed Stone Steel Ingots Steel Wood Chips
Other 2.3% Agricult ure 1%
Forest Product s 2%
Coke
Metal 16%
Other 5,000
2,500
0
5,700,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Gondola Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
60,000 Other Gondola 50,000 40,000 30,000
Covered Gondola
Mill Gondola
20,000 Steel Coal Gondola 10,000 0
Aluminum Coal Gondola 0
272,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
Gondola Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
20
15
10
5
Aluminum, 286k, 4500 cuf, rotary Hybrid Alum/Stainless steel coal gon 52’ Mill gon, 286k, 5’6” sides, 2750 cuf 66’ Mill gon, 286k, 6’ sides, 3500 cuf Covered coil steel gons, 286k, 42’-48’ High-side gons, 6250-7000 cuf, 286k Ore gondola, 286k, 1800 cuf, 34’
Key car characteristics
-5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-10
Other important characteristics
-15 -20
Source: RSI / ARCI
Body material GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Cubic capacity Coupler type
Inside length Side height Covers
Flat Car Fleet
Flat Car Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
IM Low Profile TTX 56%
IM Conventional IM Double… IM Double… IM Double… Heavy Duty Gen Service Center Beam
Railroa d 21%
Bulkhead Tri-level Bi-level 0
237,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
Shipper 4%
Lessor 19%
Flat Car Fleet Top Commodities
Industry (000 carloads) Flat Car
Intermodal
(000 carloads, excluding Intermodal)
Auto Rack Trucks
Misc Freight
Automobiles Lumber
Transportation
Gypsum Wallboard
Manufacturing
Steel Ingots Forest Products
Iron or Steel Plates
Agriculture
Saw Logs Motor Vehicle Frames
Petro-Chemical
Used Vehicles Metal
Pulpwood Logs
Construction Materials
Other
0
6,000
12,000
1,200
600
0
17,300,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Flat Car Fleet Age Distribution 60,000 50,000
Average Fleet Age IM 53' Dbl Stk IM 45-48' Dbl Stk IM 40' Dbl Stk
40,000
IM Low Profile IM Conventional
30,000
20,000
Heavy Duty Gen Serv C-Beams
10,000
Bulkhead Tri-level
0
Bi-level 0
237,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
Flat Car Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
25
20
15
10
Key car characteristics
5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0 -5
40’ 5-unit Articulated Well, 125 ton 53’ 3-unit Articulated Well, 125 ton 53’ Standalone Well, 70 ton 73’ Center-beam, 286k 62’ Bulkhead Flat, 286k
-10
Other important characteristics
-15 -20
Source: RSI / ARCI
Body type / commodity service Platform / well length GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Articulation
Center partition Rack configuration Tie-down equipment
Tank Car Fleet
Tank Car Fleet Fleet Size Specialty
Ownership Shipper 25%
Railroad 0%
Pressure
NC / NI
EC / I Lessor 75% 0
50,000
304,000 cars (2009) AAR
100,000 150,000
Tank Car Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Alcohols LPG Corn Syrup Asphalt Sulphuric Acid Soybean Oil Sulphur Residual Fuel… Sodium Alkalies Nitrogen… Other
PetroChemic al 67%
Other 3% Mining 6%
Agricult ure 24% 1,500 1,000
500
0
2,150,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Tank Car Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
90,000 80,000
70,000
Pressure
GP Large
60,000 50,000
GP 25.5k
40,000
30,000 20,000
GP 23.5k GP 20k
10,000 0
GP Small 0
304,000 cars (2009) AAR
5
10
15
20
25
Tank Car Fleet
Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
25
20
15
10
5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
-5
Key car characteristics
0
-10
GP 20k gallon, EC / I, 263k GP 23.5k gallon EC / I, 263k GP 25.5k gallon EC / I, 286k GP 29k gallon, EC / I, 286k GP 30k gallon NC / NI, 263k Pressure 18k gallon, 263k, 600 psi, Chlorine Pressure 22k gallon, 263k, 500 psi, CO2 Pressure 26k gallon, 263k, 300 psi, VCM Pressure 33k gallon, 263k, 340-400 psi, LPG Pressure 34k gallon, 263k, 500 psi, AA GP Corn Syrup, 20k, 286k GP Acid, 14-21k gallon, NC / NI Variety of specialty cars Pressure / shell thickness Gallonage capacity Coils Insulation
Other important characteristics
GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Linings Valves
-15
Source: RSI / ARCI
EC = exterior Coiled; I = Insulated; NC = Non-coiled; NI = Non-insulated
Looking Ahead
Economic Implications for the Fleet Equipment Values for Gravity Covered Hoppers
Lease Rates (Full Service, Operating Lease)
Lease rates, FMV’s, OEC, new
builds rates, fleet utilization rates, surpluses all tied to freight volumes Agricultural covered hoppers
Other covered hoppers (not shown)
Source: ARES, Inc.
2014
0
2012
C112 – 3000-3300 cuf C612 – PD3
2004
C113
2002
2010
2008
C113 – 4750 cuf C114 – 5150 cuf C617 – PD5
2006
C114
2000
C614
Fair market values
Original Equipment Costs
(10 yr C114 & C614, 25 yr C113) $100K
125K
80 C614
100
C614
60 75
C114 C114
40
50
C113
20
25
C113
2016E
2014E
2012E
2010E
2008
2006
2004
2002
2016E
2014E
2012E
2010E
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Source: ARES, Inc.
2000
0
0
Thank You Richard Kloster Advanced Rail Equipment Solutions, Inc. (847) 544-6760 [email protected]
FTR Consulting Group
Noël Perry Managing Director & Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Lawrence Gross Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Richard Kloster Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Eric Starks Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Willard (Bill) Witte Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Principal Transport Fundamentals LLC
President Gross Transportation Consulting
President Advanced Rail Equipment Solutions, Inc.
President FTR Associates
President Witte Econometrics
Contents Recent Fleet Performance Today’s Fleet
Box Car
Covered Hopper
Open Top Hopper
Gondola
Flat Car
Tank Car
Looking Ahead
Recent Fleet Performance
US Freight Market 7.0
Rail
Pipeline
Water
CAGR
Truck
6.0
‘92- ’02- ’09’01 ‘08 ‘11 Truck
4.0
PipeWater line
Trillion Ton-miles
5.0
3.0 2.0
Rail
1.0
Source: FTR, AAR, DOT, BTS, DOC
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0.0
5.0% 1.5% -0.9%
-3.1%-1.8%-2.5%
0.2% -1.0% 0.1%
4.1% 2.2% -3.2%
US Rail Car Market 2,000 Box
CH
OTH
Gon
Flat
‘92’01
Tank
1,600
’09‘11
3.3% 2.9% -0.1% 4.7% 2.8% -3.1%
600
Gon
800
9.2% 2.4% -2.2%
OTH
1,000
2.9% 1.9% -2.8%
CH
1,200
2.4% 3.0% -1.8%
Box
Billion Ton-miles
1,400
Flat Tank
1,800
CAGR ’02‘08
0.3% -1.8%-4.6%
400
200 0
Source: FTR, AAR
North American Rail Car Fleet 100
1,800
1,600 50
1,400 1,200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 * 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 * 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
1,000 800
-50 600 400
-100
New Cars -150
Source: FTR, ARCI, AAR
Retirements
Fleet Size
200 0
* 1997 Canada added & 2002 Mexico added
Economically Derived Demand vs. Rail Car Deliveries EDD 3 Year Wt Avg.
Rail Car Deliveries
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 ’96-’99 (38,000)
20,000 0
’01-’03 32,000
'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ’90-’93
-20,000 -40,000 -60,000 -80,000
Source: FTR
(106,000)
’08-’10 (144,000)
Today’s Fleet
Fleet Segmentation Total = 1.7M
2008 Railcars in service
Heavy Duty
80
Pneumatic
0.2
0.2
Mechanical
RBL/RB B
GP small
Pressure
Other
Other
Covered Gons
Coal
CH
Source: ARES, Inc., AAR
C/E
Mill Gons
Tank
Box
Gondola
C-Beams
GP cap/medium
Bulkheads
Gen Service & Other Flatcars
Gravilty
0
0.1
Tri-level
Steel Coal Gondolas
40
20
0.2
Open Top Hoppers
Flat
IM Conventional
GP large
F/G
60
0.2
Other
IM Low Profile
Specialty
0.3
IM Double Stack
0.5
Pressure differential
Bi-level
100%
Intermodal
2009 North American Rail Car Fleet, 1.6 million cars
Box Car Fleet
Box Car Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
B, 50' C/E, 50', 100t Class 1 39%
C/E, 50', 70t
Class 2/3 11%
C/E, 60', 100t F/G, 50', 100t F/G, 60', 100t F/G, 86' Other Mechanical Refer
Shipper 2%
RBL/RB 0
207,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
100,000
Lessor 48%
Box Car Traffic Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Packaging Paper Printing Paper Auto Parts Wood Panels Pulp Beverages Scrap Paper Canned Goods Aluminum Appliances Other
Forest Products 58%
Other 11%
Transpor tation 13%
Food & Ag 18%
400
200
0
1,600,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Box Car Fleet Age Distribution 90,000 80,000
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000
30,000 20,000
Average Fleet Age B, 50' C/E, 50', 100t
C/E, 50', 70t C/E, 60', 100t F/G, 50', 100t F/G, 60', 100t F/G, 86' Other
10,000
Mechanical Refer
0
RBL/RB 0
207,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
50
Box Car Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
40
30
20
Plate F, 50’, 286k Plate F, 60’, 268k Mechanical refers, Plate F, 60’/70’, 268k
Key car characteristics 10
-10
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-20 -30
Other important characteristics
-40 -50
Source: RSI / ARCI
Plate size GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Inside length Draft gear / cushion units
Door type & width Floor type / strength Interior wall / lining
Covered Hopper Fleet
Covered Hopper Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
Specialty Class 1 20%
PD5 PD3
Class 2/3 3%
Plastic Pellet Super Gravity Jumbo Gravity Large Gravity Shipper 28%
Medium Gravity Small Gravity 0
50,000 100,000 150,000
528,000 cars (2009) AAR
Lessor 49%
Covered Hopper Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Corn Plastic Resins Wheat Cement Soybeans Soybean Flour… Potash Soda Ash Sand Superphosphate Other
Agricultu re 59%
Other 3% Mining 18%
PetroChemica l 20% 1,500 1,000
500
0
4,450,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Covered Hopper Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
120,000 Specialty 100,000 80,000
PD5 PD3 Plastic Pellet
60,000
40,000
Super Gravity Jumbo Gravity Large Gravity
20,000 Medium Gravity 0
Small Gravity 0
528,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
Covered Hopper Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
40
30
20
Gravity, 5150 cuf, 286k Gravity, 3300 cuf, 286k Gravity, 6300 cuf, 286k Pneumatic, 6200 cuf, 268k Pressure differential, 5600 cuf, 286k Pressure differential, 3300 cuf, 286k
Key car characteristics 10
Unloading system
Cubic capacity GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt.
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-10
Other important characteristics
-20
Source: RSI / ARCI
Hatch type Gate type / size Lining
Open Top Hopper Fleet
Open Top Hopper Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
Other OTH 70t
Class 1 37%
Other OTH >=3600
Class 2/3 8%
Other OTH < 3600 Ore Jennies =3600) Coal Steel nonRotary (< 3600)
Shipper 31%
Coal Aluminum 0
187,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
100,000
Lessor 24%
Open Top Hopper Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Bituminous Coal Crushed Stone
Mining 92%
Iron Concentrates Phosphate Rock Coal Coke
Petroleum Coke Wood Chips Lignite Coal
Coke
Other 0.4% Forest Agricultu Products re 1% 3%
PetroChemica l 4%
Aggregates Other 5,000
2,500
0
6,100,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Open Top Hopper Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
45,000 40,000
Other OTH (70 ton)
35,000
Other OTH (>=3600)
30,000
Other OTH (< 3600)
25,000 20,000
15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Ore Jennies (=3600) Coal Steel non-Rotary (>=3600) Coal Steel non-Rotary (< 3600)
Coal Aluminum 0
187,000 cars (2009) AAR
20
40
60
Open Top Hopper Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
Aluminum, 286k, 4300 cuf, auto discharge gates, rotary coupler Hybrid Alum/Stainless, 286k, rotary Ore OTH, 286k, 1300 cuf, 31’
Aggregate OTH, 286k, 2500 cuf, 42’-45’
20
15
10 5
Key car characteristics
-5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-10
-15 -20 -25
Source: RSI / ARCI
Body material GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Cubic capacity Coupler type Gate type
Other important characteristics
# hopper outlets Outside length
Gondola Fleet
Gondola Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
Other Gons
Class 2/3 7%
Class 1 37%
Mill Gons
Covered Gons
Steel Coal Gons Aluminum Coal Gons
Shipper 25% 0
272,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
100,000
Lessor 31%
Gondola Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Coal
Scrap Steel
Mining 79%
Steel Coils Crushed Stone Steel Ingots Steel Wood Chips
Other 2.3% Agricult ure 1%
Forest Product s 2%
Coke
Metal 16%
Other 5,000
2,500
0
5,700,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Gondola Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
60,000 Other Gondola 50,000 40,000 30,000
Covered Gondola
Mill Gondola
20,000 Steel Coal Gondola 10,000 0
Aluminum Coal Gondola 0
272,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
Gondola Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
20
15
10
5
Aluminum, 286k, 4500 cuf, rotary Hybrid Alum/Stainless steel coal gon 52’ Mill gon, 286k, 5’6” sides, 2750 cuf 66’ Mill gon, 286k, 6’ sides, 3500 cuf Covered coil steel gons, 286k, 42’-48’ High-side gons, 6250-7000 cuf, 286k Ore gondola, 286k, 1800 cuf, 34’
Key car characteristics
-5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
-10
Other important characteristics
-15 -20
Source: RSI / ARCI
Body material GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Cubic capacity Coupler type
Inside length Side height Covers
Flat Car Fleet
Flat Car Fleet Fleet Size
Ownership
IM Low Profile TTX 56%
IM Conventional IM Double… IM Double… IM Double… Heavy Duty Gen Service Center Beam
Railroa d 21%
Bulkhead Tri-level Bi-level 0
237,000 cars (2009) AAR
50,000
Shipper 4%
Lessor 19%
Flat Car Fleet Top Commodities
Industry (000 carloads) Flat Car
Intermodal
(000 carloads, excluding Intermodal)
Auto Rack Trucks
Misc Freight
Automobiles Lumber
Transportation
Gypsum Wallboard
Manufacturing
Steel Ingots Forest Products
Iron or Steel Plates
Agriculture
Saw Logs Motor Vehicle Frames
Petro-Chemical
Used Vehicles Metal
Pulpwood Logs
Construction Materials
Other
0
6,000
12,000
1,200
600
0
17,300,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Flat Car Fleet Age Distribution 60,000 50,000
Average Fleet Age IM 53' Dbl Stk IM 45-48' Dbl Stk IM 40' Dbl Stk
40,000
IM Low Profile IM Conventional
30,000
20,000
Heavy Duty Gen Serv C-Beams
10,000
Bulkhead Tri-level
0
Bi-level 0
237,000 cars (2009) AAR
10
20
30
40
Flat Car Fleet Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
25
20
15
10
Key car characteristics
5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0 -5
40’ 5-unit Articulated Well, 125 ton 53’ 3-unit Articulated Well, 125 ton 53’ Standalone Well, 70 ton 73’ Center-beam, 286k 62’ Bulkhead Flat, 286k
-10
Other important characteristics
-15 -20
Source: RSI / ARCI
Body type / commodity service Platform / well length GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Articulation
Center partition Rack configuration Tie-down equipment
Tank Car Fleet
Tank Car Fleet Fleet Size Specialty
Ownership Shipper 25%
Railroad 0%
Pressure
NC / NI
EC / I Lessor 75% 0
50,000
304,000 cars (2009) AAR
100,000 150,000
Tank Car Fleet Top Commodities (000 carloads)
Industry
Alcohols LPG Corn Syrup Asphalt Sulphuric Acid Soybean Oil Sulphur Residual Fuel… Sodium Alkalies Nitrogen… Other
PetroChemic al 67%
Other 3% Mining 6%
Agricult ure 24% 1,500 1,000
500
0
2,150,000 carloads (2007) STB Public Waybill
Tank Car Fleet Age Distribution
Average Fleet Age
90,000 80,000
70,000
Pressure
GP Large
60,000 50,000
GP 25.5k
40,000
30,000 20,000
GP 23.5k GP 20k
10,000 0
GP Small 0
304,000 cars (2009) AAR
5
10
15
20
25
Tank Car Fleet
Deliveries & Retirements
New car spec
25
20
15
10
5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
-5
Key car characteristics
0
-10
GP 20k gallon, EC / I, 263k GP 23.5k gallon EC / I, 263k GP 25.5k gallon EC / I, 286k GP 29k gallon, EC / I, 286k GP 30k gallon NC / NI, 263k Pressure 18k gallon, 263k, 600 psi, Chlorine Pressure 22k gallon, 263k, 500 psi, CO2 Pressure 26k gallon, 263k, 300 psi, VCM Pressure 33k gallon, 263k, 340-400 psi, LPG Pressure 34k gallon, 263k, 500 psi, AA GP Corn Syrup, 20k, 286k GP Acid, 14-21k gallon, NC / NI Variety of specialty cars Pressure / shell thickness Gallonage capacity Coils Insulation
Other important characteristics
GRL / nominal capacity / tare wt. Linings Valves
-15
Source: RSI / ARCI
EC = exterior Coiled; I = Insulated; NC = Non-coiled; NI = Non-insulated
Looking Ahead
Economic Implications for the Fleet Equipment Values for Gravity Covered Hoppers
Lease Rates (Full Service, Operating Lease)
Lease rates, FMV’s, OEC, new
builds rates, fleet utilization rates, surpluses all tied to freight volumes Agricultural covered hoppers
Other covered hoppers (not shown)
Source: ARES, Inc.
2014
0
2012
C112 – 3000-3300 cuf C612 – PD3
2004
C113
2002
2010
2008
C113 – 4750 cuf C114 – 5150 cuf C617 – PD5
2006
C114
2000
C614
Fair market values
Original Equipment Costs
(10 yr C114 & C614, 25 yr C113) $100K
125K
80 C614
100
C614
60 75
C114 C114
40
50
C113
20
25
C113
2016E
2014E
2012E
2010E
2008
2006
2004
2002
2016E
2014E
2012E
2010E
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Source: ARES, Inc.
2000
0
0
Thank You Richard Kloster Advanced Rail Equipment Solutions, Inc. (847) 544-6760 [email protected]
FTR Consulting Group
Noël Perry Managing Director & Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Lawrence Gross Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Richard Kloster Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Eric Starks Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Willard (Bill) Witte Senior Consultant FTR Consulting Group
Principal Transport Fundamentals LLC
President Gross Transportation Consulting
President Advanced Rail Equipment Solutions, Inc.
President FTR Associates
President Witte Econometrics
