PSB Q2 2013 Dealer Survey
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY [ In conjunction with RBC Capital Markets ]
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
WHAT IS YOUR LOCATION? Answer Canada Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho
Response % 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 3.8% 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Answer
Response %
Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri
3.2% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 4.3% 1.6% 3.2% 5.9% 2.7% 2.2%
Answer
Response %
Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania
1.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 4.3%
Answer Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Response % 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 5.4% 2.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 3.8% 0.0%
How many locations do you have? Please describe your dealership’s relationship with Polaris Industries and Harley-Davidson.
PLEASE DESCRIBE YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH POLARIS INDUSTRIES AND HARLEY-DAVIDSON
Not a Polaris or HarleyDavidson dealer 10.8% 11.3% Exclusive Polaris dealer 50% Exclusive Harley-Davidson dealer
2 • Powersports Business
28% Multi-line Polaris dealer
HOW MANY LOCATIONS DO YOU HAVE? 3.2% 4-5 locations
6 or more locations 1.6%
14% 2-3 locations
81.2% 1 location
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
Approximately how much revenue does your dealership generate in a typical year? How would you characterize your calendar Q2 (April-June) APPROXIMATELY HOW MUCH REVENUE DOES YOUR HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR business relative to plan? DEALERSHIP GENERATE IN A TYPICAL YEAR? CALENDAR Q2 performance (APRIL-JUNE) BUSINESS PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO PLAN?
19.4% More than $10 million
16.1% $5-$10 million
15.1% Less than $1 million
Above plan 21.1%
27.4% $1-$3 million
Below plan 50.8% On plan 28.1%
22.0% $3-$5 million
What product segments do you offer? WHAT PRODUCT SEGMENTS DO YOU OFFER?
90% 80%
83.9% 75.8%
78.5%
70% 60% 50% 34.9%
40%
33.3%
30% 20% 10% 0%
Side-by-sides
3 • Powersports Business
Traditional ATVs
Snowmobiles
Motorcycles
Marine (PWC, etc.)
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
RATE THE FOLLOWING Very weak 100%
6%
11%
Somewhat weak 5%
Average
Somewhat strong
Very strong 3%
6%
9%
14%
90% 20% 80%
28%
32%
22%
35%
70%
39% 60% 42% 50%
36%
30%
42%
21% 40%
30%
31%
20%
27%
29%
5%
4%
24% 25%
20%
10%
0%
Overall Business Conditions
New Unit Sales
9% Used Unit Sales
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE CUSTOMER TRAFFIC IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR? Significantly better Significantly worse 7%
7%
Service Department
F&I
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE CUSTOMER BUYING INTEREST IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR? Significantly worse 5%
About the same 29%
4 • Powersports Business
P&A Sales
5%
Somewhat better 27%
Somewhat worse 32%
13% 5%
Somewhat worse 36%
Significantly better 7%
Somewhat better 27%
About the same 25%
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR DEALERSHIP’S PROFIT MARGINS NOW VS. A YEAR AGO?
Significantly worse 4%
IN GENERAL, TO WHAT EXTENT HAS YOUR BUSINESS OUTLOOK CHANGED COMPARED TO SIX MONTHS AGO?
Significantly better 3%
Somewhat worse 25%
Significantly better
Significantly worse 4%
4%
Somewhat worse 25%
Somewhat better 31%
About the same 37%
Somewhat better 25%
About the same 42%
TO WHAT EXTENT HAVE YOUR CONCERNS ABOUT THE FOLLOWING EXTERNAL RISK FACTORS CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS? Significantly more concerned 100%
2% 4%
90%
Somewhat more concerned 2% 11%
About the same 1%
Somewhat less concerned 3%
16%
Significantly less concerned 1%
2%
11%
11%
24% 80%
35%
70%
42% 51%
60%
52%
48%
50% 55% 40%
35% 31%
30% 20% 10%
27%
26%
9%
9%
24%
13%
0% U.S. political environment
5 • Powersports Business
25%
High/rising gasoline prices
Financing costs/ availability
15% 5% Housing market
Economic and/or political issues outside of the U.S.
10% Employment outlook
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
WHERE APPLICABLE, PLEASE PROVIDE YOUR YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES GROWTH (NEW PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) FOR THE FIRST CALENDAR QUARTER (JAN.-MAR.) OF 2013. +30% or better 100% 90%
+20% 3%
4% 2% 4% 10%
+5%
9%
10%
11%
0%
-30% or worse 12%
14%
13%
11%
10%
11%
10%
10%
6% 11%
17% 17%
33% 31%
33%
25%
38%
28%
30%
10%
-20%
8%
13%
50%
20%
-10%
16%
60%
40%
-5%
8%
10%
27%
Flat 11%
10%
8%
80% 70%
+10%
28%
21%
15%
15% 10%
10% 3%
1% ATVs
Side-by-Sides
7% 1% 2%
3%
5% 2% 2% Sport bikes
Heavyweight Motorcycles
11%
18%
11%
13%
5% 4%
1% 3% Scooters
Off-road bikes
10% 3% 1% PWC
WHERE APPLICABLE, WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE YOU EXPECTING BY LINE OF BUSINESS (NEW PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? +30% or better 100%
1%1% 2%1%
90% 80%
24%
2% 4% 6% 4%
+20%
+10% 1% 5% 9% 4%
+5%
Flat
-5%
5% 5
4%
10%
6% 4%
6%
7%
-10%
-20% 6% 8% 8%
-30% or worse 8% 2% 5% 6%
4%
70%
36%
37% 40%
60% 33%
39%
37%
42% 44%
50%
21%
40% 29%
30%
14% 23%
26%
21%
24%
20% 10% 0%
3% 2% 5% 3%
8% 4% Side-by-Sides
6 • Powersports Business
16% 1% 1% ATVs
16% 1% 1% Heavyweight Motorcycles
9% 3% 2% Sport bikes
11% 1% 1% Off-road bikes
18%
22%
9% 3% Scooters
6% PWC
21%
9% Snowmobiles
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR CURRENT INVENTORY LEVELS BY LINE OF BUSINESS? Too heavy 100%
6%
7%
11%
15%
90%
About right
Too low 9%
12%
7%
10%
80% 70%
48%
60%
62%
46%
47%
57% 61%
61%
64%
50% 40% 30%
45%
20% 27%
20%
10% 0%
Side-by-sides
Heavyweight Motorcycles
Sport Bikes
WHERE APPLICABLE, PLEASE PROVIDE YOUR APPROXIMATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES GROWTH (NEW POLARIS PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) FOR CALENDAR Q2 (APRIL-JUNE). +30% or better 100% 90%
+20%
+10%
+5%
2% 9% 6%
9%
21%
60% 50%
0%
-20%
36%
2% Side-by-sides
7 • Powersports Business
+30% or better 2% 3%
2%
90%
PWC
+20%
+10% 3% 4% 3% 9%
28% 80%
Snowmobiles
70%
18%
+5%
Flat
-5%
-10%
6% 13 %
-20%
-30% or worse 3% 6% 11%
3%
28%
23%
26%
26%
24%
39%
60% 21% 50%
21%
16% 3% ATVs
40% 30%
25% 12%
Scooters
WHERE APPLICABLE, WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE YOU EXPECTING BY LINE OF BUSINESS (NEW POLARIS PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
100%
14% 23%
Off-road bikes
-30% or worse
25%
20% 10%
-10%
4% 4%
40% 30%
-5%
3% 3%
9%
80% 70%
Flat
30%
27%
ATVs
47%
43%
37%
28% 16%
20% 10%
7% Victory/Indian motorcycles
29%
0%
12% 3% Side-by-sides
12%
10%
1% 1% ATVs
3% Victory/Indian motorcycles
24%
3% 3% Snowmobiles
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR CURRENT INVENTORY LEVELS BY LINE OF BUSINESS? (POLARIS PRODUCTS ONLY) Too heavy
About right
Side-by-sides
Too low
100% 90%
3%
11%
16%
HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE YOU EXPECTING POLARIS’ 2014 NEW MODEL LINEUP TO BE RELATIVE TO YEARS PAST?
16%
50%
70% 45%
40%
40%
30%
30%
10% 0%
47%
39%
Side-by-sides
ATVs
Victory/Indian motorcycles
Snowmobiles
HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE YOU EXPECTING THE 2014 NEW MODEL LINEUP FROM POLARIS’ COMPETITORS TO BE RELATIVE TO YEARS PAST? Much more significant 100% 90%
Somewhat more significant 3%
18%
About the same 3%
0%
66%
41% 40%
10%
Much more significant
Somewhat more significant
About the same
6%
21%
Very concerned 15%
80% 70% 63%
50%
58%
Not concerned 38% 59%
40% 30% 27%
20% 10% 0%
17% 7% Side-by-sides
8 • Powersports Business
ATVs
25%
11% Heavyweight motorcycles
9%
Somewhat less significant
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT COMPETITOR PRODUCT WILL TAKE SHARE FROM YOUR POLARIS SIDE-BY-SIDE BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 MONTHS?
Somewhat less significant
60%
9%
7%
20% 10%
18%
16%
21%
50%
20%
7%
60%
71%
68%
70%
39%
33%
80%
60%
Victory/Indian motorcycles
90%
80%
50%
ATVs
100%
Somewhat concerned 47%
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
WHICH MANUFACTURER DO Percent YOU BELIEVE Response POSES THE BIGGEST THREAT TO POLARIS’ MARKET SHARE IN THE SIDE-BY-SIDE CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS? Arctic Cat 3%
The Powersports Business joint second quarter 2013 dealer survey with RBC Capital MarMarkets drew 186 responses from 44 different states and Canada.
Other/Not sure 12% Yamaha 11% Kubota 1% Kawasaki 4%
[ ] ABOUT THE SURVEY
Can-Am 52%
Honda 7% John Deere 10%
9%
Are you a powersports dealer? Do you want to participate in quarterly surveys by Powersports Business? Send an email to [email protected]
9 • Powersports Business
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
WHAT IS YOUR LOCATION? Answer Canada Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho
Response % 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 3.8% 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Answer
Response %
Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri
3.2% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 4.3% 1.6% 3.2% 5.9% 2.7% 2.2%
Answer
Response %
Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania
1.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 4.3%
Answer Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Response % 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 5.4% 2.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 3.8% 0.0%
How many locations do you have? Please describe your dealership’s relationship with Polaris Industries and Harley-Davidson.
PLEASE DESCRIBE YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH POLARIS INDUSTRIES AND HARLEY-DAVIDSON
Not a Polaris or HarleyDavidson dealer 10.8% 11.3% Exclusive Polaris dealer 50% Exclusive Harley-Davidson dealer
2 • Powersports Business
28% Multi-line Polaris dealer
HOW MANY LOCATIONS DO YOU HAVE? 3.2% 4-5 locations
6 or more locations 1.6%
14% 2-3 locations
81.2% 1 location
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
Approximately how much revenue does your dealership generate in a typical year? How would you characterize your calendar Q2 (April-June) APPROXIMATELY HOW MUCH REVENUE DOES YOUR HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR business relative to plan? DEALERSHIP GENERATE IN A TYPICAL YEAR? CALENDAR Q2 performance (APRIL-JUNE) BUSINESS PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO PLAN?
19.4% More than $10 million
16.1% $5-$10 million
15.1% Less than $1 million
Above plan 21.1%
27.4% $1-$3 million
Below plan 50.8% On plan 28.1%
22.0% $3-$5 million
What product segments do you offer? WHAT PRODUCT SEGMENTS DO YOU OFFER?
90% 80%
83.9% 75.8%
78.5%
70% 60% 50% 34.9%
40%
33.3%
30% 20% 10% 0%
Side-by-sides
3 • Powersports Business
Traditional ATVs
Snowmobiles
Motorcycles
Marine (PWC, etc.)
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
RATE THE FOLLOWING Very weak 100%
6%
11%
Somewhat weak 5%
Average
Somewhat strong
Very strong 3%
6%
9%
14%
90% 20% 80%
28%
32%
22%
35%
70%
39% 60% 42% 50%
36%
30%
42%
21% 40%
30%
31%
20%
27%
29%
5%
4%
24% 25%
20%
10%
0%
Overall Business Conditions
New Unit Sales
9% Used Unit Sales
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE CUSTOMER TRAFFIC IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR? Significantly better Significantly worse 7%
7%
Service Department
F&I
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE CUSTOMER BUYING INTEREST IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR? Significantly worse 5%
About the same 29%
4 • Powersports Business
P&A Sales
5%
Somewhat better 27%
Somewhat worse 32%
13% 5%
Somewhat worse 36%
Significantly better 7%
Somewhat better 27%
About the same 25%
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR DEALERSHIP’S PROFIT MARGINS NOW VS. A YEAR AGO?
Significantly worse 4%
IN GENERAL, TO WHAT EXTENT HAS YOUR BUSINESS OUTLOOK CHANGED COMPARED TO SIX MONTHS AGO?
Significantly better 3%
Somewhat worse 25%
Significantly better
Significantly worse 4%
4%
Somewhat worse 25%
Somewhat better 31%
About the same 37%
Somewhat better 25%
About the same 42%
TO WHAT EXTENT HAVE YOUR CONCERNS ABOUT THE FOLLOWING EXTERNAL RISK FACTORS CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS? Significantly more concerned 100%
2% 4%
90%
Somewhat more concerned 2% 11%
About the same 1%
Somewhat less concerned 3%
16%
Significantly less concerned 1%
2%
11%
11%
24% 80%
35%
70%
42% 51%
60%
52%
48%
50% 55% 40%
35% 31%
30% 20% 10%
27%
26%
9%
9%
24%
13%
0% U.S. political environment
5 • Powersports Business
25%
High/rising gasoline prices
Financing costs/ availability
15% 5% Housing market
Economic and/or political issues outside of the U.S.
10% Employment outlook
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
WHERE APPLICABLE, PLEASE PROVIDE YOUR YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES GROWTH (NEW PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) FOR THE FIRST CALENDAR QUARTER (JAN.-MAR.) OF 2013. +30% or better 100% 90%
+20% 3%
4% 2% 4% 10%
+5%
9%
10%
11%
0%
-30% or worse 12%
14%
13%
11%
10%
11%
10%
10%
6% 11%
17% 17%
33% 31%
33%
25%
38%
28%
30%
10%
-20%
8%
13%
50%
20%
-10%
16%
60%
40%
-5%
8%
10%
27%
Flat 11%
10%
8%
80% 70%
+10%
28%
21%
15%
15% 10%
10% 3%
1% ATVs
Side-by-Sides
7% 1% 2%
3%
5% 2% 2% Sport bikes
Heavyweight Motorcycles
11%
18%
11%
13%
5% 4%
1% 3% Scooters
Off-road bikes
10% 3% 1% PWC
WHERE APPLICABLE, WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE YOU EXPECTING BY LINE OF BUSINESS (NEW PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? +30% or better 100%
1%1% 2%1%
90% 80%
24%
2% 4% 6% 4%
+20%
+10% 1% 5% 9% 4%
+5%
Flat
-5%
5% 5
4%
10%
6% 4%
6%
7%
-10%
-20% 6% 8% 8%
-30% or worse 8% 2% 5% 6%
4%
70%
36%
37% 40%
60% 33%
39%
37%
42% 44%
50%
21%
40% 29%
30%
14% 23%
26%
21%
24%
20% 10% 0%
3% 2% 5% 3%
8% 4% Side-by-Sides
6 • Powersports Business
16% 1% 1% ATVs
16% 1% 1% Heavyweight Motorcycles
9% 3% 2% Sport bikes
11% 1% 1% Off-road bikes
18%
22%
9% 3% Scooters
6% PWC
21%
9% Snowmobiles
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR CURRENT INVENTORY LEVELS BY LINE OF BUSINESS? Too heavy 100%
6%
7%
11%
15%
90%
About right
Too low 9%
12%
7%
10%
80% 70%
48%
60%
62%
46%
47%
57% 61%
61%
64%
50% 40% 30%
45%
20% 27%
20%
10% 0%
Side-by-sides
Heavyweight Motorcycles
Sport Bikes
WHERE APPLICABLE, PLEASE PROVIDE YOUR APPROXIMATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES GROWTH (NEW POLARIS PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) FOR CALENDAR Q2 (APRIL-JUNE). +30% or better 100% 90%
+20%
+10%
+5%
2% 9% 6%
9%
21%
60% 50%
0%
-20%
36%
2% Side-by-sides
7 • Powersports Business
+30% or better 2% 3%
2%
90%
PWC
+20%
+10% 3% 4% 3% 9%
28% 80%
Snowmobiles
70%
18%
+5%
Flat
-5%
-10%
6% 13 %
-20%
-30% or worse 3% 6% 11%
3%
28%
23%
26%
26%
24%
39%
60% 21% 50%
21%
16% 3% ATVs
40% 30%
25% 12%
Scooters
WHERE APPLICABLE, WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE YOU EXPECTING BY LINE OF BUSINESS (NEW POLARIS PRODUCTS ONLY, MEASURED IN UNITS) OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
100%
14% 23%
Off-road bikes
-30% or worse
25%
20% 10%
-10%
4% 4%
40% 30%
-5%
3% 3%
9%
80% 70%
Flat
30%
27%
ATVs
47%
43%
37%
28% 16%
20% 10%
7% Victory/Indian motorcycles
29%
0%
12% 3% Side-by-sides
12%
10%
1% 1% ATVs
3% Victory/Indian motorcycles
24%
3% 3% Snowmobiles
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE YOUR CURRENT INVENTORY LEVELS BY LINE OF BUSINESS? (POLARIS PRODUCTS ONLY) Too heavy
About right
Side-by-sides
Too low
100% 90%
3%
11%
16%
HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE YOU EXPECTING POLARIS’ 2014 NEW MODEL LINEUP TO BE RELATIVE TO YEARS PAST?
16%
50%
70% 45%
40%
40%
30%
30%
10% 0%
47%
39%
Side-by-sides
ATVs
Victory/Indian motorcycles
Snowmobiles
HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE YOU EXPECTING THE 2014 NEW MODEL LINEUP FROM POLARIS’ COMPETITORS TO BE RELATIVE TO YEARS PAST? Much more significant 100% 90%
Somewhat more significant 3%
18%
About the same 3%
0%
66%
41% 40%
10%
Much more significant
Somewhat more significant
About the same
6%
21%
Very concerned 15%
80% 70% 63%
50%
58%
Not concerned 38% 59%
40% 30% 27%
20% 10% 0%
17% 7% Side-by-sides
8 • Powersports Business
ATVs
25%
11% Heavyweight motorcycles
9%
Somewhat less significant
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT COMPETITOR PRODUCT WILL TAKE SHARE FROM YOUR POLARIS SIDE-BY-SIDE BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 MONTHS?
Somewhat less significant
60%
9%
7%
20% 10%
18%
16%
21%
50%
20%
7%
60%
71%
68%
70%
39%
33%
80%
60%
Victory/Indian motorcycles
90%
80%
50%
ATVs
100%
Somewhat concerned 47%
Q2 2013 DEALER SURVEY
WHICH MANUFACTURER DO Percent YOU BELIEVE Response POSES THE BIGGEST THREAT TO POLARIS’ MARKET SHARE IN THE SIDE-BY-SIDE CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS? Arctic Cat 3%
The Powersports Business joint second quarter 2013 dealer survey with RBC Capital MarMarkets drew 186 responses from 44 different states and Canada.
Other/Not sure 12% Yamaha 11% Kubota 1% Kawasaki 4%
[ ] ABOUT THE SURVEY
Can-Am 52%
Honda 7% John Deere 10%
9%
Are you a powersports dealer? Do you want to participate in quarterly surveys by Powersports Business? Send an email to [email protected]
9 • Powersports Business
