RE/MAX Valley Real Estate

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RE/MAX Valley Real Estate Mahoning Valley Market Report

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MVHR™ - Month Ending April 30, 2011

ccording to RE/MAX Valley Real Estate’s Mahoning Valley Housing Report (MVHR) for April, single family residential closed transactions unexpectedly fell this month a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent. The yearly month over month comparison of closed transactions also continued to erode for the 38th straight month. The seasonally adjusted median home price in the Valley, however, rose modestly 0.9 percent, ending a two month skid. Our measure of the annual absorption rate rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from 14.8 months to 14.9 months as the Bull Housing Market for Buyers roars on. Both the recent Existing-Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors® and our own MVHR last month showed rising sales. However, this month the MVHR unexpectedly turned south again for existing-home sales. But was the turn unexpected. We warned earlier that sales gains in 2011would be uneven at best – especially since some buyers are finding it more and more difficult to obtain financing? However, for the lucky ones who do qualify for a mortgage, monthly payments as a percent of income are at record lows according to NAR. For the week ending April 28, 2011, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey was still less than 5%, posting a rate of 4.78 percent for a 30-year commitment. Although home sales finally seem to be holding their own without a federal stimulus, sales would be considerably stronger if mortgage lenders would simply return to the normal, safe standards that were in place a decade ago – without all the overly exacting restrictions that government, as well as lenders, have imposed on borrowers supposedly to protect these same borrowers from themselves. “We agree with NAR that since FHA and VA government-backed loan programs are again profitable for our Treasury, and since neither have required a taxpayer bailout, we believe low-downpayment loans should continue to be available for those consumers who demonstrate suitable financial accountability by living within the constraint of their budget. Raising the down-payment requirement now would harshly deny credit to many worthy middle-class families,” said Jack Pearce, Broker, RE/MAX Valley Real Estate.

sins of yesterday’s meltdown lenders. Potential home buyers are being battered by an onslought of new rules and regulations that make it impossible for many worthy borrowers to qualify for a loan,” Pearce continued. “Again, we caution that the coming battles over qualified residential mortgage (QRM) standards, the mortgage interest deduction (MID), and the proposed extinctions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can only make it more difficult for the consumer. Our lawmakers should be mindful of what they wish for, and proceed with caution.”

TRANSACTIONS: • Transactions Per Month (TPM). Given March’s nonadjusted single family sales increase of 63.7 percent it was dissappointing to see April, a month known for its cyclical increases, fall back 13.4 percent. April posted just 258 closed transactions compared to 306 a year ago, a decrease of 15.7 percent year over year.

According to NAR, recent home buyers are indeed staying well within their budgets, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years. “We all agree that credit lending standards are a good thing, but underwriters went from knowingly ignoring them, to making them unnecessarily strict as though to punish today’s borrowers for the

The seasonally adjusted TPM (a twelve month moving average), also decreased 1.5 percent month over month from March, and a 13.1 percent decrease over the Tax Credit month of April 2010 a year ago. •

Transactions Per Year (TPY). Valley homeowners

sold 3,185 homes over the 12 months ending April 30 (unadjusted). This is 13.1 percent less than the 3,666 homes sold for the twelve month period ending April 30, 2010. The adjusted March TPY (a twelve month moving average) stands at 3,391 homes sold. That’s off just 1.2 percent from March, but shows that we are still losing annual sales at the rate of over nine percent per month. In April of 2009, we sold 4,343 homes annually. In two years we’ve trimmed nearly a thousand homes from our yearly closed transactions. •

Pending Home Sales (PHS). Pending home sales are transactions under contract but not yet closed. They are seen as a forward looking indicator of future sales. The twelve month moving average (PHS) stands at 515 units currently in escrow. This is up from 472 in March, the highest reading since May of last year, but it failed to translate into an increase of closed transactions this April. This points to the number of short sales in the works and length of time it take these sales to work their way through escrow.

INVENTORY: • Supply of Active Inventory (SAI). The supply of active inventory is a count of the total single family residential homes on the market on the last day of the current period. The actual or unadjusted count of active homes at the end of April was 4,089; another unhealthy increase of 7.3 percent over March.



these chances in this buyer’s market by pricing their home to beat the competition, and by conditioning and staging their home to better grab the eye of the buyer. •

Days On Market (DOM). The days on market is a measure of the marketing time only for homes that sell (making no allowance for the homes still left on market). Therefore, it may not be as valuable an indicator of the market as the Absorption Rate, often called the “true DOM.” Still, it gauges the health of a market as we compare the days on market to past market performance. April’s homes sold at in average unadjusted rate of 143 days. That’s not a misprint, and is the highest unadjusted rate ever recorded by the MVHR. The seasonally adjusted twelve month moving average we call the DOM stood at 118 days in April, up two days or 1.7 percent over March.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE (MPS): Median Home Price – Sold (MPS) is a measure of the median home price for all the homes that sold in a specified period. The “median” is a number in a series of numbers chosen so that exactly half of the remaining numbers are greater than the median; the other half are less than the median. The median, therefore, is less affected by very high or inordinately low home sale prices than would a simple mean or average.

Despite an increase for the unadjusted total, the seasonally adjusted SAI decreased again 0.3 percent to 4,227. This marked the fourth decrease in the SAI in the past five months. Therefore, we are clearly beginning to see improvement, albeit gradual.

The actual or unadjusted median price for homes sold in the Valley in April was $66,250, 32.5 percent more than the median price of $50,000 we saw in March. This is an increase of 10.8 percent from April of 2010.

Absorption Rate of Inventory (ARI). Also known as Months Supply of Inventory or the True DOM, it measures the time (in months) it will take for the current market to sale off or “absorb” all the homes listed for sale. A market is considered in balance when it has a six month supply.

The less volatile seasonally adjusted MPS figure reveals a median home price of $62,308, an increase of 0.9 percent over March, although it represents a full 3.0 percent decrease under April of 2010.

The actual or unadjusted absorption rate for April was 15.4 months, the highest unadjusted rate since November of 2010. That’s an 8.9 percent increase over March, and a 6.3 percent rise over April 2010. April’s adjusted ARI rose 0.1 point to14.9 months. Sellers looking to sell in under 90 days statistically have no more than a 18.8 percent chance of success, down from 19.3 in March. Sellers can improve

See Also: •

12 Month MPS - pdf



24 Month MPS - pdf



Historical MPS, monthly since August 2006.



Transactions (existing home sales) - Q1 Review



Average Median Sales Price - Q1 Review

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate 1006 Boardman - Canfield Rd. Boardman, Ohio 44512 330.629.9200

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate 1006 Boardman Canfield Rd., Boardman, OH

Mahoning Valley Housing Report™ (Counties of Mahoning, Trumbull, and Columbiana)

Ohio, Mahoning Valley Summary

April, 2011

Existing-Home Sales per Month (TPM) and Pending Home Sales (PHS)

Sold

Existing-Home Sales per Year (TPY) and Active Inventory (SAI)

Sold

12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted

12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted

4400

550 Existing-Homes Sold (MoM)

500

Pending Home Sales

462

447

450

449

459

459

457

457

447

433

442

441

439

4214

4181

4200

479

4145

4111

4101

4236

4225

4212

4259

4236

4239

4227

4135

4000 Existing-Home Sales (YoY)

400

Active Supplu of Homes

3800

350

3740 3725

3600

300

310

306

306

298

250

289

292

279

272

273

270

268

269

265

Apr May Jun '10 '10 '10

14.7

14.8

14.2

14.8

14.9

14.1 13.9

14.0 13.7

13.5

13.4 13.3

13.2

13.2

13.0

Seller's Odds to Sell Within 90 Days: Less Than 18.8%

12.5

Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '11

July Aug '10 '10

119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104

110

106

Apr '10

106

May '10

106

Jun '10

$639

$638 $633

$633

$630

$626

$623 $618

$620 $610 $600 Apr '10

May '10

Jun '10

July '10

Aug '10

Sep '10

Oct '10

3431

3391

Jan '11

Feb Mar Apr '11 '11 '11

Nov '10

Dec '10

Jan '11

Feb '11

115

111

111

July '10

106

Aug '10

Mar '11

Sep '10

Oct '10

Nov '10

Dec '10

Jan '11

Feb '11

Mar '11

Apr '11

April, 2011 "Mahoning Valley Market Report"

$647

$642

Oct Nov Dec '10 '10 '10

Apr '11

"Sold" Transactions (TPM) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (TPM) 12 x 12 Monthly Trend (TPY) 12 x 12 AnnualTrend Supply of Active Inventory (SAI) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (SAI) 12 x 12 Month Trend Absorption Rate Current Mo. (ARI) 12 x 12 Month Trend Days On Market (DOM) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (DOM) 12 x 12 Month Trend Median Home Price Sold (MSP) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (MSP) 12 x 12 Month Trend

Bull Buyer's Market

Hundreds Averaged Median Home Price

$640

3470

108 106

$656

$646

Sep '10

114

Median Home Price Sold (MPS)

$649

3509

116

12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted, hundreds

$648

3546

118

$670

$650

3581

Days on Market (DOM) (sold only)

Median Home Price - Sold (MPS)

$660

3618

12 x 12 month movong average, seasonally adjusted with 2 period moving average trend line

Days

Buyer's Market

14.5

14.5

3649

Days On Market (DOM)

Absorption Rate of Inventory (ARI) 12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted

Absorption Rate (True DOM)

3671

3200

Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '11

15.0

3692

3400

200

Months

3711

This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.

258 298 306 265 3,391

change -13.4% -15.7%

4,089 3,810 4,427 4,227 15.5 14.9

change 7.3% -7.6%

143 days 118 days 119 days 118

change 21.2% 20.2%

$66,250 $50,000 $59,780 $62,308

change 32.5% 10.8%

8.9%

$56,000

$58,000

$60,000

$62,000

$64,000

$66,000

$68,000

$70,000

$72,000

$74,000

$76,000

$78,000

$80,000

$82,000

Historical Monthly Trend Line, seasonally ajdusted

Nov '10 Sep '10

July '10 Mar '10

Jan '10 Nov '09 Sep '09

July '09 May '09

Mar '09

Jan '09 Nov '08 Sep '08

Jul '08 May '08

Mar '08

Jan '08 Nov '07

Sep '07

Jul '07

May '07

Mar '07

Jan '07

This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Median Home Price

$84,000

Sep '06

Mahoning Valley Housing Report™ Median Home Price Index - Sold (MPS)

May '10

$86,000

Nov '06

Boardman, Ohio (330) 629-9200

Report date: 5/1/2011

Jan '11

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate

Mar '11

4/2/2011

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate Boardman, OH (330) 629-9200

Mahoning Valley Housing Report Trumbull, Mahoning and Columbiana Counties

Transactions - Quarterly Review Mahoning Valley Existing Single Family Homes Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted 1,600 1,493

1,500

1,473

1,459

1,400

1,330

1,300

1,238

1,227

1,163

1,200 1,099

1,100

1,026

1,089

1,002

971

1,028

1,000

1,055

929

928

900

849

800

737

700

691

684

645

600 500 06 Q1

06 Q2

06 Q3

06 Q4

07 Q1

07 Q2

07 Q3

07 Q4

08 Q1

08 Q2

08 Q3

08 Q4

09 Q1

09 Q2

09 Q3

09 Q4

10 Q1

10 Q2

10 Q3

10 Q4

11 Q1

2009

2010

2011

2010.I

2010.II

2010.III

2010.IV

2011.I

Quarterly Change

Annual Change

924 3694 Yr.

820 3279 Yr.

645 645 Yr.

691

1,002

849

737

645

-12.5%

-6.7%

Annual Quarterly Average

This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity Provider.

RE/MAX Valley Real Estate

4/2/2011

Boardman, Ohio (330) 629-9200

Mahoning Valley Housing Report "Trumbull, Mahoning, and Columbiana Counties"

Average Median Sales Price - Quarterly Review Mahoning Valley Existing Single Family Homes Not Seasonally Adjusted, with 4 qtr. avg. trend line, 100s $95 $90 $85 $80

79.9

$75

75.1

$70 66.0

$65

$60

59.8

$55

53.7 $50

48.3

$45

Annual Average

11 Q1

10 Q4

10 Q3

10 Q2

10 Q1

09 Q4

09 Q3

09 Q2

09 Q1

08 Q4

08 Q3

08 Q2

08 Q1

07 Q4

07 Q3

07 Q2

07 Q1

06 Q4

06 Q3

06 Q2

06 Q1

$40

2008

2009

2010

2010.I

2010.II

2010.III

2010.IV

2011.I

Quarterly Change

Annual Change

$67,213

$60,229

$63,303

$59,800

$68,093

$60,733

$64,583

$53,667

-16.9%

-10.3%

This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity Provider.