RE/MAX Valley Real Estate Mahoning Valley Market Report
A
MVHR™ - Month Ending April 30, 2011
ccording to RE/MAX Valley Real Estate’s Mahoning Valley Housing Report (MVHR) for April, single family residential closed transactions unexpectedly fell this month a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent. The yearly month over month comparison of closed transactions also continued to erode for the 38th straight month. The seasonally adjusted median home price in the Valley, however, rose modestly 0.9 percent, ending a two month skid. Our measure of the annual absorption rate rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from 14.8 months to 14.9 months as the Bull Housing Market for Buyers roars on. Both the recent Existing-Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors® and our own MVHR last month showed rising sales. However, this month the MVHR unexpectedly turned south again for existing-home sales. But was the turn unexpected. We warned earlier that sales gains in 2011would be uneven at best – especially since some buyers are finding it more and more difficult to obtain financing? However, for the lucky ones who do qualify for a mortgage, monthly payments as a percent of income are at record lows according to NAR. For the week ending April 28, 2011, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey was still less than 5%, posting a rate of 4.78 percent for a 30-year commitment. Although home sales finally seem to be holding their own without a federal stimulus, sales would be considerably stronger if mortgage lenders would simply return to the normal, safe standards that were in place a decade ago – without all the overly exacting restrictions that government, as well as lenders, have imposed on borrowers supposedly to protect these same borrowers from themselves. “We agree with NAR that since FHA and VA government-backed loan programs are again profitable for our Treasury, and since neither have required a taxpayer bailout, we believe low-downpayment loans should continue to be available for those consumers who demonstrate suitable financial accountability by living within the constraint of their budget. Raising the down-payment requirement now would harshly deny credit to many worthy middle-class families,” said Jack Pearce, Broker, RE/MAX Valley Real Estate.
sins of yesterday’s meltdown lenders. Potential home buyers are being battered by an onslought of new rules and regulations that make it impossible for many worthy borrowers to qualify for a loan,” Pearce continued. “Again, we caution that the coming battles over qualified residential mortgage (QRM) standards, the mortgage interest deduction (MID), and the proposed extinctions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can only make it more difficult for the consumer. Our lawmakers should be mindful of what they wish for, and proceed with caution.”
TRANSACTIONS: • Transactions Per Month (TPM). Given March’s nonadjusted single family sales increase of 63.7 percent it was dissappointing to see April, a month known for its cyclical increases, fall back 13.4 percent. April posted just 258 closed transactions compared to 306 a year ago, a decrease of 15.7 percent year over year.
According to NAR, recent home buyers are indeed staying well within their budgets, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years. “We all agree that credit lending standards are a good thing, but underwriters went from knowingly ignoring them, to making them unnecessarily strict as though to punish today’s borrowers for the
The seasonally adjusted TPM (a twelve month moving average), also decreased 1.5 percent month over month from March, and a 13.1 percent decrease over the Tax Credit month of April 2010 a year ago. •
Transactions Per Year (TPY). Valley homeowners
sold 3,185 homes over the 12 months ending April 30 (unadjusted). This is 13.1 percent less than the 3,666 homes sold for the twelve month period ending April 30, 2010. The adjusted March TPY (a twelve month moving average) stands at 3,391 homes sold. That’s off just 1.2 percent from March, but shows that we are still losing annual sales at the rate of over nine percent per month. In April of 2009, we sold 4,343 homes annually. In two years we’ve trimmed nearly a thousand homes from our yearly closed transactions. •
Pending Home Sales (PHS). Pending home sales are transactions under contract but not yet closed. They are seen as a forward looking indicator of future sales. The twelve month moving average (PHS) stands at 515 units currently in escrow. This is up from 472 in March, the highest reading since May of last year, but it failed to translate into an increase of closed transactions this April. This points to the number of short sales in the works and length of time it take these sales to work their way through escrow.
INVENTORY: • Supply of Active Inventory (SAI). The supply of active inventory is a count of the total single family residential homes on the market on the last day of the current period. The actual or unadjusted count of active homes at the end of April was 4,089; another unhealthy increase of 7.3 percent over March.
•
these chances in this buyer’s market by pricing their home to beat the competition, and by conditioning and staging their home to better grab the eye of the buyer. •
Days On Market (DOM). The days on market is a measure of the marketing time only for homes that sell (making no allowance for the homes still left on market). Therefore, it may not be as valuable an indicator of the market as the Absorption Rate, often called the “true DOM.” Still, it gauges the health of a market as we compare the days on market to past market performance. April’s homes sold at in average unadjusted rate of 143 days. That’s not a misprint, and is the highest unadjusted rate ever recorded by the MVHR. The seasonally adjusted twelve month moving average we call the DOM stood at 118 days in April, up two days or 1.7 percent over March.
MEDIAN HOME PRICE (MPS): Median Home Price – Sold (MPS) is a measure of the median home price for all the homes that sold in a specified period. The “median” is a number in a series of numbers chosen so that exactly half of the remaining numbers are greater than the median; the other half are less than the median. The median, therefore, is less affected by very high or inordinately low home sale prices than would a simple mean or average.
Despite an increase for the unadjusted total, the seasonally adjusted SAI decreased again 0.3 percent to 4,227. This marked the fourth decrease in the SAI in the past five months. Therefore, we are clearly beginning to see improvement, albeit gradual.
The actual or unadjusted median price for homes sold in the Valley in April was $66,250, 32.5 percent more than the median price of $50,000 we saw in March. This is an increase of 10.8 percent from April of 2010.
Absorption Rate of Inventory (ARI). Also known as Months Supply of Inventory or the True DOM, it measures the time (in months) it will take for the current market to sale off or “absorb” all the homes listed for sale. A market is considered in balance when it has a six month supply.
The less volatile seasonally adjusted MPS figure reveals a median home price of $62,308, an increase of 0.9 percent over March, although it represents a full 3.0 percent decrease under April of 2010.
The actual or unadjusted absorption rate for April was 15.4 months, the highest unadjusted rate since November of 2010. That’s an 8.9 percent increase over March, and a 6.3 percent rise over April 2010. April’s adjusted ARI rose 0.1 point to14.9 months. Sellers looking to sell in under 90 days statistically have no more than a 18.8 percent chance of success, down from 19.3 in March. Sellers can improve
See Also: •
12 Month MPS - pdf
•
24 Month MPS - pdf
•
Historical MPS, monthly since August 2006.
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Transactions (existing home sales) - Q1 Review
•
Average Median Sales Price - Q1 Review
RE/MAX Valley Real Estate 1006 Boardman - Canfield Rd. Boardman, Ohio 44512 330.629.9200
RE/MAX Valley Real Estate 1006 Boardman Canfield Rd., Boardman, OH
Mahoning Valley Housing Report™ (Counties of Mahoning, Trumbull, and Columbiana)
Ohio, Mahoning Valley Summary
April, 2011
Existing-Home Sales per Month (TPM) and Pending Home Sales (PHS)
Sold
Existing-Home Sales per Year (TPY) and Active Inventory (SAI)
Sold
12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted
12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted
4400
550 Existing-Homes Sold (MoM)
500
Pending Home Sales
462
447
450
449
459
459
457
457
447
433
442
441
439
4214
4181
4200
479
4145
4111
4101
4236
4225
4212
4259
4236
4239
4227
4135
4000 Existing-Home Sales (YoY)
400
Active Supplu of Homes
3800
350
3740 3725
3600
300
310
306
306
298
250
289
292
279
272
273
270
268
269
265
Apr May Jun '10 '10 '10
14.7
14.8
14.2
14.8
14.9
14.1 13.9
14.0 13.7
13.5
13.4 13.3
13.2
13.2
13.0
Seller's Odds to Sell Within 90 Days: Less Than 18.8%
12.5
Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '11
July Aug '10 '10
119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104
110
106
Apr '10
106
May '10
106
Jun '10
$639
$638 $633
$633
$630
$626
$623 $618
$620 $610 $600 Apr '10
May '10
Jun '10
July '10
Aug '10
Sep '10
Oct '10
3431
3391
Jan '11
Feb Mar Apr '11 '11 '11
Nov '10
Dec '10
Jan '11
Feb '11
115
111
111
July '10
106
Aug '10
Mar '11
Sep '10
Oct '10
Nov '10
Dec '10
Jan '11
Feb '11
Mar '11
Apr '11
April, 2011 "Mahoning Valley Market Report"
$647
$642
Oct Nov Dec '10 '10 '10
Apr '11
"Sold" Transactions (TPM) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (TPM) 12 x 12 Monthly Trend (TPY) 12 x 12 AnnualTrend Supply of Active Inventory (SAI) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (SAI) 12 x 12 Month Trend Absorption Rate Current Mo. (ARI) 12 x 12 Month Trend Days On Market (DOM) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (DOM) 12 x 12 Month Trend Median Home Price Sold (MSP) Current Month One Month Previous12 Months Previous (MSP) 12 x 12 Month Trend
Bull Buyer's Market
Hundreds Averaged Median Home Price
$640
3470
108 106
$656
$646
Sep '10
114
Median Home Price Sold (MPS)
$649
3509
116
12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted, hundreds
$648
3546
118
$670
$650
3581
Days on Market (DOM) (sold only)
Median Home Price - Sold (MPS)
$660
3618
12 x 12 month movong average, seasonally adjusted with 2 period moving average trend line
Days
Buyer's Market
14.5
14.5
3649
Days On Market (DOM)
Absorption Rate of Inventory (ARI) 12 x 12 month moving average, seasonally adjusted
Absorption Rate (True DOM)
3671
3200
Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '11 '11 '11 '11
15.0
3692
3400
200
Months
3711
This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
258 298 306 265 3,391
change -13.4% -15.7%
4,089 3,810 4,427 4,227 15.5 14.9
change 7.3% -7.6%
143 days 118 days 119 days 118
change 21.2% 20.2%
$66,250 $50,000 $59,780 $62,308
change 32.5% 10.8%
8.9%
$56,000
$58,000
$60,000
$62,000
$64,000
$66,000
$68,000
$70,000
$72,000
$74,000
$76,000
$78,000
$80,000
$82,000
Historical Monthly Trend Line, seasonally ajdusted
Nov '10 Sep '10
July '10 Mar '10
Jan '10 Nov '09 Sep '09
July '09 May '09
Mar '09
Jan '09 Nov '08 Sep '08
Jul '08 May '08
Mar '08
Jan '08 Nov '07
Sep '07
Jul '07
May '07
Mar '07
Jan '07
This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Median Home Price
$84,000
Sep '06
Mahoning Valley Housing Report™ Median Home Price Index - Sold (MPS)
May '10
$86,000
Nov '06
Boardman, Ohio (330) 629-9200
Report date: 5/1/2011
Jan '11
RE/MAX Valley Real Estate
Mar '11
4/2/2011
RE/MAX Valley Real Estate Boardman, OH (330) 629-9200
Mahoning Valley Housing Report Trumbull, Mahoning and Columbiana Counties
Transactions - Quarterly Review Mahoning Valley Existing Single Family Homes Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted 1,600 1,493
1,500
1,473
1,459
1,400
1,330
1,300
1,238
1,227
1,163
1,200 1,099
1,100
1,026
1,089
1,002
971
1,028
1,000
1,055
929
928
900
849
800
737
700
691
684
645
600 500 06 Q1
06 Q2
06 Q3
06 Q4
07 Q1
07 Q2
07 Q3
07 Q4
08 Q1
08 Q2
08 Q3
08 Q4
09 Q1
09 Q2
09 Q3
09 Q4
10 Q1
10 Q2
10 Q3
10 Q4
11 Q1
2009
2010
2011
2010.I
2010.II
2010.III
2010.IV
2011.I
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
924 3694 Yr.
820 3279 Yr.
645 645 Yr.
691
1,002
849
737
645
-12.5%
-6.7%
Annual Quarterly Average
This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity Provider.
RE/MAX Valley Real Estate
4/2/2011
Boardman, Ohio (330) 629-9200
Mahoning Valley Housing Report "Trumbull, Mahoning, and Columbiana Counties"
Average Median Sales Price - Quarterly Review Mahoning Valley Existing Single Family Homes Not Seasonally Adjusted, with 4 qtr. avg. trend line, 100s $95 $90 $85 $80
79.9
$75
75.1
$70 66.0
$65
$60
59.8
$55
53.7 $50
48.3
$45
Annual Average
11 Q1
10 Q4
10 Q3
10 Q2
10 Q1
09 Q4
09 Q3
09 Q2
09 Q1
08 Q4
08 Q3
08 Q2
08 Q1
07 Q4
07 Q3
07 Q2
07 Q1
06 Q4
06 Q3
06 Q2
06 Q1
$40
2008
2009
2010
2010.I
2010.II
2010.III
2010.IV
2011.I
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
$67,213
$60,229
$63,303
$59,800
$68,093
$60,733
$64,583
$53,667
-16.9%
-10.3%
This information is presented as a free service to our community. All data herein has not been verified and is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity Provider.