RETAIL RESEARCH REPORT - Colliers International

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Q2 2013 | RETAIL

TAMPA BAY FLORIDA

RETAIL RESEARCH REPORT

Tampa Bay Florida

Tenant Competition Increases in Improving Market EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tampa Bay’s retail market saw continued improvement in the second quarter, with several significant sales transactions and increased competition among tenants in certain sectors. There was net absorption of over 59,000 square feet throughout the region, and notably, an active Pasco County submarket reported over 29,000 square feet of net absorption.

Updated May 2012

Class B and C retail properties in Tampa Bay saw increased activity, Class A properties have experienced strong demand and many are now in limited availability. This scarcity of high-quality property drove an increase in rental rates. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay retail investment market continued to be a seller’s market, with high demand for well-located, grocery-anchored retail centers.

MARKET INDICATORS Q2 2013

Q3 2013*

VACANCY NET ABSORPTION

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS •

OVERALL ASKING RATE *Projected

Relative to prior period. Note: Arrows compare current quarter to the previous quarter historically adjusted figures. All data in this report include buildings 10,000 square feet and greater.

OVERALL RETAIL MARKET SUMMARY STATISTICS, Q2 2013 CURRENT VACANCY RATE:

9.1%

PREV. QTR. VACANCY RATE:

9.2%

YEAR AGO VACANCY RATE:

8.8%

Winn-Dixie purchased the 72-location grocery chain Sweetbay and is in the process of determining which stores will remain open, which will close and how to brand many of the stores. There were approximately 60 Sweetbay locations in the Tampa Bay area, 19 of which have closed.



Office Max and Office Depot merged and are expected to embrace a retail concept that requires smaller retail spaces.



Cole Credit Property Trust IV Inc. purchased Summerfield Crossing Phase II at 13120 US Highway 301 S in Riverview for $13.9 million.

COMPLETIONS, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY RATES Completions

Net Absorption

Overall Vacancy

12%

200

10%

100 0

NET ABSORPTION: UNDER CONSTRUCTION:

59,466 sf 0 sf

CURRENT AVG. ASKING RATE:

$14.11/NNN

PREV. QTR. AVG. ASKING RATE:

$14.07/NNN

YEAR AGO AVG. ASKING RATE:

$14.43/NNN

www.colliers.com/tampabay

Vacancy

8%

-100 6% -200 4%

-300

2%

-400 -500

0% Q2 '12

Q3 '12

Q4 '12

Q1 '13

Q2 '13

Square Feet (In Thousands)

CONSTRUCTION

The Tampa Bay retail market posted 59,466 square feet of positive absorption during the second quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, overall vacancy levels fell slightly to 9.1 percent.

RESEARCH REPORT | Q2 2013 | RETAIL | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL TAMPA BAY FLORIDA LEASING ACTIVITY The Tampa Bay retail market saw a total vacancy of 9.1% and 59,446 square feet absorbed in the second quarter. While the Pasco County submarket reported the highest vacancy rate in the area at 11.9%, it experienced the most absorption in the second quarter, with 29,070 square feet absorbed.

UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS Florida

Tampa Bay

USA

14.0

12.0

10.0

In the second quarter, limited space availability in Class A centers drove tenants toward B and C properties, resulting in a notable pickup of activity in these classes of property. One of the most difficult categories to find space availability was the 4,000- to 6,000-square-foot spaces in welllocated Class A retail centers. Competition among tenants for Class A retail space in the second quarter drove up rental rates for community and anchored shopping centers metro-wide.

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-08

May-09

May-08

0.0

The Tampa Bay MSA unemployment rate posted 6.9 percent in May 2013, which represents a 20.7 percent decrease from May 2012. The State of Florida rate ended the month of May at 7.1 percent, while the national rate posted 7.6 percent. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

In the second quarter, Tampa Bay retailers continued to right-size their spaces to adapt to business models affecting retail sales and distribution, such as online shopping, warehousing and logistics. Concessions on retail lease transactions decreased in the second quarter, but tenant improvement allowance contributions were still included in many lease transactions. Tampa Bay’s overall average asking rental rate for retail in the second quarter was $14.11 per square foot on a triple-net lease, with the Westshore/Northwest Tampa submarket reporting the highest average asking rental rate in the area at $15.19 per square foot.

ACTIVE TENANTS Fitness, medical, fast-casual dining, health/ beauty/weight loss and auto parts were the most active categories in Tampa Bay’s retail market during the second quarter. And while the last couple years have been very active for national

tenants, local mom-and-pop retailers were more active in the second quarter, a result of increased consumer confidence, as well as increased availability of bank lending for entrepreneurs to start and grow companies. In the convenience store sector, Wawa, Thorntons, and Racetrack showed no signs of slowing their competition for the best locations in the Tampa Bay area. New to the market was Freddy’s Frozen Custard and Steakburger, which opened its first Florida store at Creekwood Crossing at I-75 and 53rd Avenue in Bradenton.

INVESTMENT SALES The Tampa Bay retail market continued to be a seller’s market in the second quarter, with high demand for well-located, grocery-anchored retail centers. Overall, cap rates for popular Publixanchored centers ranged from mid-6% to mid7%, while cap rates for centers anchored by other grocery stores were in the 8% and 9% range. Triple-net retail properties reported cap rates at 5.5% to 6% in the Tampa Bay area in the second quarter. Investor and developer demand in Tampa Bay remained focused on infill redevelopment and urban retail, rather than on more suburban locations. Some retail properties came to the market at least partially driven by investors’ desire to exit some of their holdings before rates interest increase further, as interest rates ticked up 50 to 75 basis points toward the end of the second quarter. Fewer distressed retail properties – both from banks and special servicers – hit the market in the second quarter. Shopping center REIT buyers have also been quiet in 2013; however, the second quarter saw a significant increase in interest among out-of-state private capital buyers.

TRANSACTION UPDATE SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS

PROPERTY TYPE

BUYER NAME

SIZE (SF)

SALES PRICE

SUBMARKET/CITY

University Collection

Neighborhood

Faison

107,000

$18,400,000 ($171.96/sf)

University

Summerfield Crossing Phase II

Community

Cole Credit Property Trust IV Inc

113,500

$13,900,000 ($122.47/sf)

Riverview

Terrace Oaks Plaza

Neighborhood

Colterra Realties Inc

40,659

$5,400,000 ($132.81/sf)

University

Largo Village

Neighborhood

Perrine Marlin Inc

60,340

$2,625,000 ($43.50/sf)

Mid Pinellas

LEASING ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS

SPACE TYPE

TENANT NAME

SIZE (SF)

LEASE TYPE

SUBMARKET/CITY

Trinity Commons

Endcap

Fiddlers Green Irish Pub

4,400

New

New Port Richey

City Plaza

Inline

Vallarta Mexican Restaurant

4,285

New

Tampa Palms

Carrollwood Commons

Freestanding

Pollo Tropical

3,770

New

Carrollwood

P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL TAMPA BAY FLORIDA

RESEARCH REPORT | Q2 2013 | RETAIL | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL TAMPA BAY FLORIDA

UPDATE SUBMARKET COMPARISONS SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN Sbmrkt

Bldgs.

Total Inventory Direct Vac. % S.F.

Total Vac. %

Net Absorp. Current Qtr. S.F.

Net Absorp. YTD S.F.

New Under Completions Construc. S.F. S.F.

Overall Avg. Direct Asking Rate NNN

Pasco County Q2 ‘13

196

11,195,488

11.3%

11.9%

29,070

-70,383

0

0

$13.68/nnn

242

14,170,735

7.5%

7.5%

-71,400

-69,187

0

0

$15.19/nnn

214

12,756,123

7.1%

7.1%

15,494

-87,064

0

0

$13.88/nnn

172

8,259,653

7.7%

7.8%

-34,517

-93,601

0

0

$14.57/nnn

202

10,245,907

8.5%

9.2%

46,729

35,986

0

0

$12.73/nnn

7.8%

9.7%

7,934

-136,390

0

0

$12.66/nnn

Total Vac. %

Net Absorp. Current Qtr. S.F.

Net Absorp. YTD S.F.

Westshore/NW Tampa Q2 ‘13

I-75 Corridor Q2 ‘13

North Pinellas Q2 ‘13

Mid-Pinellas Q2 ‘13

South Pinellas/St. Petersburg CBD Q2 ‘13

150

7,865,972

TAMPA BAY OVERALL RETAIL MARKET Total Inventory Direct Vac. % S.F.

New Under Overall Avg. Direct Completions Construc. S.F. Asking Rate NNN S.F.

Qtr. & Year

Bldgs.

2013 2Q

1,316

71,127,931

8.6%

9.1%

59,466

-327,766

0

0

$14.11/nnn

2013 1Q

1,316

71,127,931

8.5%

9.2%

-387,232

-387,232

0

0

$14.07/nnn

2012 4Q

1,316

71,127,931

8.1%

8.6%

84,637

408,403

11,000

0

$14.08/nnn

2012 3Q

1,315

71,116,931

8.2%

8.7%

123,134

323,766

21,895

11,000

$14.20/nnn

2012 2Q

1,312

71,067,036

8.3%

8.8%

57,156

200,632

0

32,895

$14.43/nnn

2012 1Q

1,312

71,067,036

8.4%

8.9%

143,476

143,476

53,400

32,895

$14.16/nnn

2011 4Q

1,311

71,013,636

8.6%

9.0%

493,209

-653,214

0

53,400

$14.00/nnn

2011 3Q

1,311

71,013,636

9.3%

9.7%

104,885

-597,078

0

53,400

$14.09/nnn

2011 2Q

1,311

71,013,636

9.3%

9.9%

275,744

-121,813

0

53,400

$14.08/nnn

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL TAMPA BAY FLORIDA | P. 3

RESEARCH REPORT | Q2 2013 | RETAIL | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL TAMPA BAY FLORIDA

SUBMARKET MAP

482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 •

$2 billion in annual revenue



$71 billion in transaction volume



1.12 billion square feet under management



Over 13,500 professionals

OFFICE CONTACT: Ryan Kratz President Corporate Office 311 Park Place Boulevard Suite 600 Clearwater, FL 33759 TEL +1 727 442 7184

Tom Chamblee

Hal Colbert

Raquel Coryer

Senior Associate, Retail and

Managing Director, Retail

Senior Associate, Retail Services

Land Services

Services

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

www.colliers.com/Raquel.Coryer

www.colliers/Tom. Chamblee

www.colliers.com/Hal.Colbert

Jim Kovacs

Britney Mroczkowski

Lisa McCaffrey

Managing Director, Retail

Associate, Retail Services

Director, Retail Services

Services

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

www.colliers.com/Britney.

www.colliers.com/Lisa.Mcaffrey

www.colliers.com/Jim.Kovacs

Mroczkowski

Ben McLeish

Mike Milano, CCIM, MAI

James Rouse

TEL +1 813 221 2290

Director, Retail Services

Managing Director, Retail

Retail Specialist

[email protected]

Investment Sales

[email protected]

www.colliers.com/Ben.Mcleish

[email protected]

www.colliers.com/James.Rouse

FAX +1 813 224 9403 EMAIL [email protected] www.colliers.com/Matt.Dolan

RESEARCHER: Matt Dolan GIS & Research Administrator Market: Tampa Bay

www.colliers.com/Mike.Milano

Ron Schultz

Ryan Kratz

Tyler Peterson

Director, Retail Investment Sales

President

Associate, Retail Services

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

www.colliers.com/Ron.Schultz

www.colliers.com/Ryan.Kratz

www.colliers.com/Tyler. Peterson

Copyright @ 2013 Colliers International The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. This report includes owner and non-owner occuped space 10,000 square feet and greater. Directional arrows compare current quarter to previous quarter numbers. Arrows show change when there is a 10 cent or more change in lease rate or 0.5 percent or more change in vacancy rate. Due to continual updates and refinements in the historical database, some of the data in this report may not match data published in previous quarters. Sources: Costar Property and Colliers International Tampa Bay Florida.

www.colliers.com/marketname

Tampa Bay Florida

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