River Basin Water Resources Planning

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River Basin Water Resources Planning Don Rayno Division of Water Resources North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources 1

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Critical Questions How much water is available in the river system? How much and when is water needed for the various services we expect the river to provide?

Water Use Data + Hydrologic Model 3

Hydrologic Model

Historical Flows

Operation Guidelines

Water Use

Evaluation Criteria

Local Water Supply Plans

Self-supplied Industry

Agriculture

Other Registered Withdrawers 4

Historical Flows

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Operations Guidelines „

Examples

Quantity and timing of specific flows Aquatic habitats „ Water quality protection 9 Intake coverage „ Recreation „

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Reservoir water level limits and timing Structural limits „ Aquatic habitat protection 9 Intake coverage „ Boat ramp access „ Authorized purposes and storage allocations „

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Flow-Aug. Pool

Operation Minimum Guidelines Release

Release water to meet Lillington target flow of:

>100 %

40 cfs

600 cfs

80-100 %

40 cfs

600 cfs

60-80 %

40 cfs

40-60 %

40 cfs

20-40 % 0-20 %

200 cfs

450-600 cfs 300-450 cfs

Jordan Lake Drought Protocol

100 cfs 7

Water Use

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Water Withdrawal Registrations „ „

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Local Water Supply Plans „ „

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Agriculture > 1,000,000 gallons per day Non-agriculture > 100,000 gallons per day

Local Government Water Systems Other Large Community Water Systems

Annual Use Reporting due by April 1 8

Water Use

Water and Treatment Sharing

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Water Use

Seasonal Use Pattern

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Water Use

Projected Demands

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Major Assumptions ƒ

Future withdrawals will come from current intake locations

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Future wastewater discharges will be the same percent of withdrawals at the same locations

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Sellers will continue to meet buyers’ needs

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Future flows will be within the range of flows in the historical record

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Local utilities are the best judges of future system growth 12

Hydrologic Model

Cape Fear River Model Schematic

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Hydrologic Model

Data into Hydrologic Model

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Evaluate Modeling Results „

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What is the answer to each of the evaluation questions? Are there areas where there may be problems meeting expected demands? When can we expect to have shortages and how can we adapt when there is a shortage?

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Evaluation Criteria

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Evaluation Criteria

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Evaluation Criteria

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Evaluation Criteria

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What ifs: ƒ Would a reasonable reduction in demands avoid the identified problems? ƒ Could an alternative source meet expected demands? ƒ What happens if future droughts are longer or more severe? ƒ What happens if we can not discharge the same percent of wastewater? 21

Needed Information for Plan Update „ „

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Annual Water Use Data LWSP & WWR Update LWSP 9 Projections to 2060 9 Projections of wastewater discharges 9 Anticipated source changes (GW --> SW?) 9 Anticipated additional water sources USE “NOTE” FIELDS to submit additional information

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Add 2060 data here 23

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NC Estimated 2008 Net Water Withdrawals DENR Division of Water Resources

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M illio n G a llo n s p e r D a y

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Electric Generation Industrial Domestic Self-supply DA&CS Agric REVISED Dec09

Apr

May

Jun

Mining Institutional Public Water Systems

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Golf Course Snowmaking DWR Agric/Aqua 25