SAGE WELCOMES Paul Taylor, Pew Research Center Mr. Paul Taylor is the Executive Vice President of the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan “fact tank” based in Washington, DC, that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. He also serves as director of two of the seven projects of the Center –the Social and Demographic Trends project and the Pew Hispanic Center. Before joining the Pew Research Center, Mr. Taylor held positions as a newspaper reporter and public interest advocate. From 1996-2003, he served as President and Board Chairman of the Alliance for Better Campaigns, a public interest group he founded which seeked to improve elections by promoting campaigns in which the most useful information reached the greatest number of citizens in the most engaging ways. The Alliance’s honorary co-chairs were Walter Cronkite and former Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. Mr. Taylor graduated in 1970 with a B.A. in American Studies from Yale University, where he served as Executive Editor of the Yale Daily News.
America is Changing Presentation to Sage “Perspectives on the Future” Conference September 19, 2011 Austin, Texas
• Demographics • Economics • Social Values
U.S. Population Growth, 2000-2010
U.S. Population, 2000
281.4 million
U.S. Population, 2010
308.7 million
Growth
Percentage Growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
27.3 million
9.7%
U.S. Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010 and 2000
2000
2010
Hispanic
Hispanic
12.5%
16.3%
Black
White
63.7%
White
Black 12.2%
69.1%
Asian 4.7% Other 3.0%
Source: Pew Research Center
12.1% Asian 3.6% Other 2.7%
Share of U.S. Population Growth by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2010
Asian 16% Black
14%
Hispanic
92% of U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010 was among non-whites
56% White 8% Other 7%
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau data
U.S. Population, Actual and Projected Under Alternative Scenarios:1960–2050 (in millions)
1950
1960
Source: Pew Research Center
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Immigrants and Population Growth
• 82% of the growth in the U.S. population by mid-century will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 and 2050 and their U.S.born descendants.
Source: Pew Research Center projections, 2008
Foreign-Born Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected:1850–2050 (% of total)
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
Note: Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008; Gibson and Jung (2006)
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Americans Divided on Views of Immigrants (%) Do immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents OR Are immigrants today a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care?
63
BURDEN 54
52
48 44 46 37
50 38
41
44 45
50 46 40
41
44 45 39
31 STRENGTHEN
Jul 94
Source: Pew Research Center, 1994-2011
Sep 00
Mar 06
Feb 11
Three Great Waves of Immigrants (% of total) European
Latin American
Northern Europe Wave,1840-1889
Asian
88
12
88
33
(14 million)
Southern/Eastern Europe Wave,1890-1919
(18 million)
Modern Wave,1965-2008
12
50
28
(40 million)
Notes: Immigrants from Canada and other areas not shown. Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples for 1980,1990, and 2000 Censuses and 2008 American Community Survey. 1840-1919 numbers from Table 2 of Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,2008. Office of Immigration Statistics.
Hispanic Share Doubles to 29% by 2050 — Asian Share also Doubles Percent of Total Population
White* 3% 10%
4% 11%
5% 11%
6% 12%
Black*
9%
13%
Hispanic 5%
5%
14%
16%
12% 13%
13%
Asian* 6% 19%
7%
23%
8%
26%
9%
29%
13% 13% 13% 14% 13%
87%
1950
85%
1960
83%
1970
80%
1980
76%
1990
70%
2000
67%
2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008) *Not Hispanic
65%
2010
60%
2020
56%
2030
52%
2040
47%
2050
Mexican-Born Population in the United States, 1850-2010 (thousands) 12,377 12,000 10,000
9,752
8,000 6,000 4,500 4,000 2,199 2,000
13 0 1850
42
78
222
1870
1890
1910
Source: Pew Research Center calculations of U.S. Census data
641
454
1930
1950
760
1970
1990
2010
Migration from Mexico, 2006-2010 (thousands)
1,050
844 658 557 404
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Pew Research Center estimates based on Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía data
2010
Mexican Views of Life in the United States Are on the Decline, 2009-2011 % saying life in the United States is ___ than in Mexico… Worse
2011
2009
Source: Pew Research Center
22
Better
44
14
57
The Mexican-American Population Boom: Births Overtake Immigration, 1980-2010 (millions) Births during decade
New immigrants during decade 7.2
4.7
4.7 4.2
2.7
3.1
1980-1990
1990-2000
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau data
2000-2010
Mexican-American Population by Nativity and Legal Status, 2010 (millions; %)
Unauthorized 6.5 (21%) Native born 20.3 (64%)
Foreign born
11.5 (36%)
Authorized 5.0 (16%)
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau data and estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey, 2009-2010
Intermarriage Trend, 1960-2008 % who married someone of a different race/ethnicity
15
14.6 11.2 Newly married 8.3
10
6.7
8.0
4.0
5
6.8
2.4
4.5 3.2
0 1960
1970
1980
1990
7.6
Currently married
2000
2010
Source: Newly married numbers for 1980 and earlier are calculated from 1980 Census, and other numbers are calculated from 2008 American Community Survey (ACS). Currently married numbers are from 2005 and 2008 ACS and U.S. Decennial Census data.
Intermarriage Rates, by Race and Ethnicity Newlyweds in 2008 who married someone of a different race/ethnicity (%)
30.8 25.7 15.5 8.9
White
Black
Hispanic
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2008 American Community Survey
Asian
Do You Think of Obama as Black or Mixed Race? (% saying…)
Black 27
All
Hispanic
52
24
White Black
Mixed race
55
53 34
23
61
Note: Question was worded “Do you mostly think of Obama as a black person or mostly as a person of mixed race?. Source: Pew Research Center race survey, conducted Oct 28-Nov30,2009 (N=2,884)
Elderly Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected: 1960–2050 (% of total)
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Note: Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008
Total Dependency Ratio, Actual and Projected: 1960–2050 (Children and older adults per 100 persons of working age )
80 70 60 50
Notes: Working ages are 18 to 64 years. Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008
21.9
Japan
19.9
Italy
19.3
Germany Spain
16.6
France
16.5
Ukraine
16.4 16.0
United Kingdom
14.0
Russia Poland
13.5
Canada
13.5
Global Aging, Selected Nations Share of population (%) ages 65 and older, 2008
12.6
United States
10.0
Argentina Korea, South
9.9
China
8.1
Vietnam
7.0
Thailand
7.0
Brazil
6.0
Turkey
5.9
Morocco
5.7
Mexico
5.6
Myanmar
5.6
Indonesia
5.5
Colombia
5.1
India
5.1
Source: Data extracted from PRB 2008 World Population Data Sheet.
Don’t Worry, Grandma, We’ll Take Care of You Should families allow elderly parents to move in with them if they want to? (%)
A responsibility
Not a responsibility 63
Millennial (18-25)
67
Gen X (26-41) Boomer (42-60) Silent (61+)
33 30
55 38
Source: Pew Research Center survey report, 2005
41 52
U.S Labor Force is Getting Older
• 93% of the growth in the U.S. labor force from 2006 to 2016 will be among workers ages 55 and older. -- Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment-to-Population Ratio by Age, 1981-2011 (%) 100 90 AGES 25-29
80 70
AGES 16+
60 50 40 30 20
AGES 65+
10 0 1981
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
Growing Older, Feeling Younger
Averages for felt age vs. actual age 90
82
80 70
71
60
% who say …
50
Actual age
Felt age
40 30 20
What Age Would You Like to Live To?
24 23
10 0 18-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
Note: Asked of all 2,969 adults in the survey.
Source: Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2009
75+
70 and under 71-80 81-90 91-100 Over 100
7 19 28 21 8
Mean age
89
Work Because You Need To? It Depends On Your Age % of workers who say they work because they …
Need the money 49
Ages 16-64 65 and older
Want to work
17
20 54
Both 31 27
Note: Asked of 1,140 respondents employed full time or part time. “Don’t know/Refused” responses are not shown. Source: Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2009
For Older Adults, a Gentler Recession 18-49
50-64
65+ 68
Cut back spending in past year
59 36
Had trouble getting / affording medical care in past year
23 21 7 44
Lost money on investments in past year
66 43 67
Say recession will make it harder to meet retirement needs Are "very satisfied" with their financial situation Say recession has caused stress in family*
Source: Pew Research Center, 2009
75
56 22 22 31 52 58 38
Confidence in Retirement Income Declines, 2009-2010 (%) Overall, how confident are you that you will have enough income and assets to last throughout your retirement years?
Very confident
May-10
Feb-09
Source: Pew Research Center
23
Somewhat confident
41
30
Not too/Not at all
32
41
26
Most Americans Say Older People Have Better Moral Values than Younger People … Who has the better moral values?
Older 70%
Young people
4% 10%
Neither/DK/ Ref.(VOL)
Source: Pew Research Center, 2009
people
16% Similar
…But Americans See Young People as Having More Racial Tolerance Who has the better attitudes toward other races and groups?
Older
Young people
people
47%
19%
13% Neither/DK/ Ref.(VOL) Source: Pew Research Center, 2009
21% Similar
Fewer Americans Are Seeing Conflicts Between Young People and Older People How much conflict is there between young people and older people?
NOT VERY STRONG/NO CONFLICTS
53
42
55
41 VERY STRONG/STRONG CONFLICTS
Feb 92
68
Feb 00
Source: Pew Research Center and General Social Survey, 1992-2009
26
Jul 09
Civilian Labor Force by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2050 (Projected)
2010
2050 Asian 8%
Asian 5% Black 12% Hispanic 14%
Black 14% NonHispanic White 68% Hispanic 24%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005
Non-Hispanic White 51%
Twenty-to-One: Median Net Worth of Households by Race and Ethnicity, 2009 $113,149
Whites
$6,325
$5,677
Hispanics
Blacks
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data
Percentage Decline in Household Median Net Worth by Race and Ethnicity, 2005-2009 (in 2009 dollars) Whites
Hispanics
Blacks
-16%
-53% -66%
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data
Share of 18- to 24-Year-Olds Enrolled in College by Race and Ethnicity, 1967-2010 (%) 70 Asian 62.2
60 50
White 43.3 Black 38.0 Hispanic 31.9
40 30 20 10
0 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2010
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data
Americans Think They Are Better off than Their Parents … (%) Compared to your parents when they were the age you are now, do you think your own standard of living now is … ?
64
62
65
BETTER OFF 70 68
66
66
64 57
13
Jan 94
15
Jan 96
13
12
Jan 98
Jan 00
12 11 WORSE OFF Jan 02
Jan 04
Source: Pew Research Center and General Social Survey, 1994-2011
12 Jan 06
15
Jan 08
17
61
13
Jan 10 Mar 11
… And They Think Their Children Will Be Better off than Them (%) When your children are at the age you are now, do you think their standard of living will be … ?
BETTER OFF
55 45
20
61 53
57
51
47
45
Jan 96
48
26
22
20 12
Jan 94
59
Jan 98
10
10
Jan 00
Jan 02
21
14 14 WORSE OFF Jan 04
Source: Pew Research Center and General Social Survey, 1994-2011
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10 Mar 11
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