Slides for Stapleton/Park Hill Process
Stapleton Expansion Forecasted Enrollment Growth & Capacity – detailed view Note: this is a very detailed explanation of how DPS and its community partners come up with forecasts of students we need to expect to serve in Stapleton in future years
April 25, 2013 1
Goals & Key Questions Goals in developing forecasts (for Stapleton and for Denver) •
Accurately forecast the number of seats needed to accommodate growth
•
Identify challenges with enough lead time to be able to organize solutions
Key questions •
What is the current state of DPS capacity in Stapleton?
•
What methodology and inputs does DPS use in forecasting?
•
What is the build-out for Stapleton / Northfield housing?
•
What is the forecast for Stapleton?
•
Will my child be guaranteed a seat in Northfield?
2
Context Setting: more than doubling capacity available in Stapleton in next 2 years Seats
4,811
$86 Million of investment 2,550 seats Eastbridge: 550 seats in 2014 Cons. Green: 1,000 seats in 2014 Northfield: 1,000 seats in 2015
2,361
Current capacity in Stapleton schools
Capacity by 2015, after construction*
* Note that added capacity figure is only newly constructed capacity and does not include capacity in Smiley 3
Context setting: number of students living in Stapleton by year October Count Enrollment
Enrollment Growth Rate
3,000
80% 2573 70%
2,500
60% 2,000 50% 1,500
40%
1,000
30% 20%
500 10% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• This excludes students who attend out of district or a private school (about 13% of the total elementary students in Stapleton). Includes students attending any DPS school • For reference, currently about 20% of Stapleton residents choice out of Westerly Creek, Roberts, and Swigert to another DPS school 4
Summary Methodology and Variables
Variable
1
2
3
4
Number of Units
Home Type
DPS Student Yield per Home Type
Age of Student
Single Family
Data Source
Forest City City of Denver Permits
Elementary
Townhouse
Middle
Apartments
High
Forest City City of Denver Permits
2010 Census / DPS Enrollment
2010 Census / DPS Enrollment
5
1
2
3
4
# Units
Unit Count: Development nearly finished south of I-70 Single-Family Home Closures by Year: South of I-70 900 773
800 700
634 568
600 500
419
400
322
300 200
573
300 238
185
195
226
205
100
0
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Red: units South of I-70 – total at build-out 5,800 Blue: units North of I-70 – total at build-out 5,000-6,000
• • •
The number of units sold North of I-70 depends on the housing market and the product type. We assume 400+ units sold each year going forward The single biggest driver of DPS enrollment growth is single-family new home construction. Recent estimates from Forest City (Feb 2013) indicate that the remaining units South will be sold in 2013 6
1
2
3
4
Development finished and planned south of I-70
Unit Type
Affordable
Total Units South of I-70 (data from Forest City)
Apartments 3% 8%
Residential Units Type
Closed
To Sell
Total
Single family
3,184
205
3,389
Multi-family Apartments Affordable Total
1,542 493 152 5,371
191 0 0 396
1,733 493 152 5,767
30% Multi-Family
59% Single Family
• Type of unit count matters because the majority of the students are coming from single-family detached units • Unit types north of I-70 are projected to be similar to those south of I-70 • Data source: residential units and sales from Forest City (updated Feb 2013)
7
1
2
3
Unit Type
4
Overview of the Yield Metric
“If there are so many kids on our block, why is the DPS yield so low?” Only Pre-K – 12 Students attending a DPS school count towards the yield Age
# Kids
Count in Yield?
1
1
-
2
1
-
3
2
-
Pre-K
0
0
Kinder
1
1
1st Grader
1
1
3rd Grader 1st Grader
2nd Grader
1
1
3rd Grader
2
2
6th Grader & 4th Grader in Private School
4th Grader
1*
0
5th Grader
1
1
6th Grader
1*
0
No kids 3 year old Pregnant
3rd Grader Kinder
No kids
No kids
2 year old Pregnant
1 year old 5th
Grader 2nd Grader 3 year old Pregnant
* Private school does not count in DPS yield
6 DPS students
10 homes
= .60 Yield 8
1
2
3
4
Yield
Yields by Residential Unit Type
Yield: Number of DPS students (Pre-K – 12) living per unit, regardless of which DPS school they attend Stapleton Development Comparable Single Family Home Student Yields
Student Yields: All Closed Stapleton Units
.95 0.95 -1.14
1 0.9
0.77
0.8 0.7
0.68 0.6
0.6 0.5
0.83
0.4
0.45
0.51
0.56
0.9
.64-.76 0.64
0.3
0.23
0
• • •
0.71
0.81 0.75
0.79
0.7
0.4
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.3 0.2
0.13
0.15
2009
2010
Single-Family
•
0.78
0.5
0.2 0.1
0.8 0.6
0.4
0.26
1.0
0.16
0.19
0.2
0.1 0.0
2011
Multi-Family
2012 Apartments
Peak All Types
Highlands Ranch
In planning seats, DPS projects Stapleton single-family yields 20-40% higher than Highlands Ranch and other neighborhoods, which is an aggressive assumption For Denver County the student yield for all residential units is 0.26, for Stapleton we are assuming up to three times that yield As of the last census, roughly 87% of Stapleton-area elementary children attended DPS schools, meaning that 13% of students attended private school or another district. We have assumed 90% capture rates for the other developments DPS-wide 84% attend a DPS school. In more affluent communities such as Cory Merrill, the capture rate across grades is as low as 63% 9
1
2
3
4
Yield
Indications that kinder yields from most mature filings are peaking
Yields for the most mature filings are increasing at a decreasing rate . . .
. . . And Kinder students are peaking
Filings 2 and 6 1.00 0.85
0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20
Total Kinder living in filings 2 and 6
0.90
112
0.76
100
0.67 0.39
0.14
0.46
0.49
0.19
0.16
0.54
78
82
2007
2008
88
95
0.17
0.00 2009 Single-Family
• • •
2010 Multi_Family
2011 Apts
2012 All Home Types
2009
2010
2011
2012
Filing 2 (Aviator Pool area) and Filing 6 (Puddle Jumper Pool area) are the areas that Forest City developed first and are typical of the unit mix of the rest of Stapleton. Even at full build-out, 50% of single family homes in filing 2 do not have any kids in DPS Affordable housing apartments have an average student yield of 0.61.
All data based on City of Denver permit data, DPS enrollment and Forest City filings 10
1
2
3
4
Link between home sales and age of children
Grade 900 773
800 700
634 568
600
Home sales in South Stapleton
573
500
419
400
322
300
300 238
185
200
195
226
205
Families start to grow soon after moving in, with students matriculating to DPS 5 years later
100 0
0
•
A significant data point to the belief that South Stapleton yields will max out in the next couple of years is because there are few homes left to sell and we are now seeing Kindergartners from the 2008-2010 timeframe
•
We have seen the decrease in new home construction play out in the 2010 forecast numbers. The largest population for children under 18 was in the 3 year old age group.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 Census by Age 350
300 250
240
257
275
295 253 260
216
200
179
150
163
136
100
87 83
50
63 46 56 42 40
0
April 25, 2013 1
Goals & Key Questions Goals in developing forecasts (for Stapleton and for Denver) •
Accurately forecast the number of seats needed to accommodate growth
•
Identify challenges with enough lead time to be able to organize solutions
Key questions •
What is the current state of DPS capacity in Stapleton?
•
What methodology and inputs does DPS use in forecasting?
•
What is the build-out for Stapleton / Northfield housing?
•
What is the forecast for Stapleton?
•
Will my child be guaranteed a seat in Northfield?
2
Context Setting: more than doubling capacity available in Stapleton in next 2 years Seats
4,811
$86 Million of investment 2,550 seats Eastbridge: 550 seats in 2014 Cons. Green: 1,000 seats in 2014 Northfield: 1,000 seats in 2015
2,361
Current capacity in Stapleton schools
Capacity by 2015, after construction*
* Note that added capacity figure is only newly constructed capacity and does not include capacity in Smiley 3
Context setting: number of students living in Stapleton by year October Count Enrollment
Enrollment Growth Rate
3,000
80% 2573 70%
2,500
60% 2,000 50% 1,500
40%
1,000
30% 20%
500 10% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• This excludes students who attend out of district or a private school (about 13% of the total elementary students in Stapleton). Includes students attending any DPS school • For reference, currently about 20% of Stapleton residents choice out of Westerly Creek, Roberts, and Swigert to another DPS school 4
Summary Methodology and Variables
Variable
1
2
3
4
Number of Units
Home Type
DPS Student Yield per Home Type
Age of Student
Single Family
Data Source
Forest City City of Denver Permits
Elementary
Townhouse
Middle
Apartments
High
Forest City City of Denver Permits
2010 Census / DPS Enrollment
2010 Census / DPS Enrollment
5
1
2
3
4
# Units
Unit Count: Development nearly finished south of I-70 Single-Family Home Closures by Year: South of I-70 900 773
800 700
634 568
600 500
419
400
322
300 200
573
300 238
185
195
226
205
100
0
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Red: units South of I-70 – total at build-out 5,800 Blue: units North of I-70 – total at build-out 5,000-6,000
• • •
The number of units sold North of I-70 depends on the housing market and the product type. We assume 400+ units sold each year going forward The single biggest driver of DPS enrollment growth is single-family new home construction. Recent estimates from Forest City (Feb 2013) indicate that the remaining units South will be sold in 2013 6
1
2
3
4
Development finished and planned south of I-70
Unit Type
Affordable
Total Units South of I-70 (data from Forest City)
Apartments 3% 8%
Residential Units Type
Closed
To Sell
Total
Single family
3,184
205
3,389
Multi-family Apartments Affordable Total
1,542 493 152 5,371
191 0 0 396
1,733 493 152 5,767
30% Multi-Family
59% Single Family
• Type of unit count matters because the majority of the students are coming from single-family detached units • Unit types north of I-70 are projected to be similar to those south of I-70 • Data source: residential units and sales from Forest City (updated Feb 2013)
7
1
2
3
Unit Type
4
Overview of the Yield Metric
“If there are so many kids on our block, why is the DPS yield so low?” Only Pre-K – 12 Students attending a DPS school count towards the yield Age
# Kids
Count in Yield?
1
1
-
2
1
-
3
2
-
Pre-K
0
0
Kinder
1
1
1st Grader
1
1
3rd Grader 1st Grader
2nd Grader
1
1
3rd Grader
2
2
6th Grader & 4th Grader in Private School
4th Grader
1*
0
5th Grader
1
1
6th Grader
1*
0
No kids 3 year old Pregnant
3rd Grader Kinder
No kids
No kids
2 year old Pregnant
1 year old 5th
Grader 2nd Grader 3 year old Pregnant
* Private school does not count in DPS yield
6 DPS students
10 homes
= .60 Yield 8
1
2
3
4
Yield
Yields by Residential Unit Type
Yield: Number of DPS students (Pre-K – 12) living per unit, regardless of which DPS school they attend Stapleton Development Comparable Single Family Home Student Yields
Student Yields: All Closed Stapleton Units
.95 0.95 -1.14
1 0.9
0.77
0.8 0.7
0.68 0.6
0.6 0.5
0.83
0.4
0.45
0.51
0.56
0.9
.64-.76 0.64
0.3
0.23
0
• • •
0.71
0.81 0.75
0.79
0.7
0.4
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.3 0.2
0.13
0.15
2009
2010
Single-Family
•
0.78
0.5
0.2 0.1
0.8 0.6
0.4
0.26
1.0
0.16
0.19
0.2
0.1 0.0
2011
Multi-Family
2012 Apartments
Peak All Types
Highlands Ranch
In planning seats, DPS projects Stapleton single-family yields 20-40% higher than Highlands Ranch and other neighborhoods, which is an aggressive assumption For Denver County the student yield for all residential units is 0.26, for Stapleton we are assuming up to three times that yield As of the last census, roughly 87% of Stapleton-area elementary children attended DPS schools, meaning that 13% of students attended private school or another district. We have assumed 90% capture rates for the other developments DPS-wide 84% attend a DPS school. In more affluent communities such as Cory Merrill, the capture rate across grades is as low as 63% 9
1
2
3
4
Yield
Indications that kinder yields from most mature filings are peaking
Yields for the most mature filings are increasing at a decreasing rate . . .
. . . And Kinder students are peaking
Filings 2 and 6 1.00 0.85
0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20
Total Kinder living in filings 2 and 6
0.90
112
0.76
100
0.67 0.39
0.14
0.46
0.49
0.19
0.16
0.54
78
82
2007
2008
88
95
0.17
0.00 2009 Single-Family
• • •
2010 Multi_Family
2011 Apts
2012 All Home Types
2009
2010
2011
2012
Filing 2 (Aviator Pool area) and Filing 6 (Puddle Jumper Pool area) are the areas that Forest City developed first and are typical of the unit mix of the rest of Stapleton. Even at full build-out, 50% of single family homes in filing 2 do not have any kids in DPS Affordable housing apartments have an average student yield of 0.61.
All data based on City of Denver permit data, DPS enrollment and Forest City filings 10
1
2
3
4
Link between home sales and age of children
Grade 900 773
800 700
634 568
600
Home sales in South Stapleton
573
500
419
400
322
300
300 238
185
200
195
226
205
Families start to grow soon after moving in, with students matriculating to DPS 5 years later
100 0
0
•
A significant data point to the belief that South Stapleton yields will max out in the next couple of years is because there are few homes left to sell and we are now seeing Kindergartners from the 2008-2010 timeframe
•
We have seen the decrease in new home construction play out in the 2010 forecast numbers. The largest population for children under 18 was in the 3 year old age group.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 Census by Age 350
300 250
240
257
275
295 253 260
216
200
179
150
163
136
100
87 83
50
63 46 56 42 40
0
