STACK AWS
Permian and SCOOP/STACK Infrastructure, Takeaway Capacity and Basis
November 29, 2017
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
U.S. Production of Crude, Natural Gas, & NGLs
7
55 6
50
5
45
4
40
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
3.1
2.8
2.8
9.0
20 2.6
8.8
2.5 15 2.4
8.5
U.S. NGL Production From Gas Processing
Permian MMb/d
60
25
9.3
Thousands
65
3.7 U.S. Lower 48Oil Production U.S. Crude Total U.S. 30 Dry Gas 3.4 3.0 Permian Production 9.5
MMB/d
MMB/d
8
70
35
U.S Total MMb/d
9
U.S. Crude Oil Production
75
Bcf/d
10
2.2 2.2
8.3
10
8.0
Marcellus /Utica
2.0 1.9
5
1.6
-
1.3
Source: EIA/RBN
2
Crude Oil Production by Basin 3,000
3,000
Bakken M/bbl
2,000
2,500
1,500 1,000
2,000
-
-
2,500
M/bbl
2,000 1,500
3,000
Permian
2,500
Eagle Ford
2,000 1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
-
-
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Anadarko
1,000 500
3,000
Niobrara
1,500
500
M/bbl
M/bbl
2,500
Niobrara & Anadarko
Source: EIA/RBN
3
LLS/WTI/Brent Price Relationships $30
Brent - WTI
$25
$15
$10 $5
Brent - LLS
$/Bbl
$/Bbl
$20
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0 -$5 -$10
WTI Cushing
$0 Brent
-$5 LLS St James
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: Bloomberg
4
Brent vs. WTI Differential Driving Crude Exports $7.00
2,000
Brent vs. WTI/Cushing Differential
U.S. Crude Oil Exports
$6.00
Brent-WTI/Cushing 6 Mo. Average
1,500 $4.93
Mb/d
$/Bbl
$5.00 $4.00
1,000
$3.00 $2.68
$2.00
$1.00
$1.52
$0.00
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
500
$1.71
0
Source: Bloomberg, EIA/RBN
5
The Bottleneck $4
Cushing
Brent - LLS
$/Bbl
$2 $0 -$2 -$4
Permian $8.00 LLS – WTI @ Cushing $6.00
$/Bbl
$4.00 St James
$2.00 $0.00
Houston Corpus
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
6
Permian Crude Oil Infrastructure/ Price Cycles
2.0
$25 $20
MMb/d
$15
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
1.5 1.0
$10
$5
0.5
$0
0.0
-$5
Midland – Cushing Differential - $/BBl
2.5
Production Cushing-Midland Differential Average Differential LLS-Midland
7
Permian Crude Oil Infrastructure/ Price Cycles
3.0
MMb/d
2.5
2.0
Takeaway Capacity
$8.00
Production History
$7.00
$/bbl Cush-Mid Differential
$6.00
$/bbl LLS-Mid Differential
$5.00 $4.00 $3.00
1.5 1.0
$2.00
$1.00 $0.00
0.5 0.0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
-$1.00
Midland – Cushing/LLS Differential $/BBl
3.5
-$2.00
8
MMb/d
3.5
Planned Capacity Production History $/bbl Cush-Mid Differential
Takeaway Capacity RBN Prod. Forecast $/bbl LLS-Mid Differential
$8.00 $7.00
3.0
$6.00
2.5
$5.00
2.0
$4.00 $3.00
1.5
$2.00
1.0
$1.00 $0.00
0.5 0.0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
-$1.00 -$2.00
Midland – Cushing/LLS Differential $/BBl
Permian Crude Oil Infrastructure/ Price Cycles
RBN Growth Scenario
9
North American Crude Oil Pipeline Projects Plains- Basin Expansion (+350) 900 Mb/d 2019
Enterprise- Midland to Sealy 450 Mb/d 1H-2018
Sunoco- Permian Longview and Louisiana Extension 100 Mb/d 2Q-2016 Sunoco- Permian Express III Expansion (+100) 400 Mb/d 4Q-2017
Magellan- BridgeTex Expansion (+100) 400 Mb/d 2Q-2017
Plains- Cactus Expansion (+140) 390 Mb/d 2Q-2017
Buckeye- South Texas Gateway 400 Mb/d 2019
TexStar Logistics- EPIC 200-450 Mb/d 1Q-2019
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
10
PADD 3 Receipts by Pipeline from PADD 2 1,800 1,600 1,400
Mb/d
1,200
1,000 800 600 400 200 0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: EIA
11
Permian Natural Gas Takeaway Capacity 14.0 12.0
Bcf/d
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Assumes Pipelines Fill Energy Transfer – Trans-Pecos Energy Transfer – Comanche Trail
TPP CTP Roadrunner Enterprise/DCP ET Fuel/Enterprise Oasis Atmos Transwestern EPNG NGPL NNG Demand History Growth Scenario
12
Oklahoma Rig Counts – 9/19/2014 vs 6/24/2016 vs 10/27/2017 100 75
80
9/19/14 6/24/16 11/17/2017
20
40
8 9
0
20
Mississippian
0 100 80 60 40 20 0
35
6 3 Granite Wash 100
82 100 80 60 40 20 0
38
40 20
0
0 0 0
100 80 60 40 20 0
8 2 8 Arkoma Woodford
80 60
4 0 0 Other
101
Cana Woodford
Anadarko
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
60
40
100 80 60 40 20 0
Producing Basins Legend Cana Woodford Ardmore Woodford Granite Wash Anadarko – Other Mississippian Arkoma Woodford Other OK
80
60
11
0 1
Ardmore Woodford
Source: Baker Hughes
13
Oklahoma Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production 500
7.0
Crude Oil
450
6.0
400
5.0
350 Bcf/d
300 Mb/d
Natural Gas
250 200
3.0
150
2.0
100
Cushing
4.0
1.0
50 0
0.0
Anadarko-OK
Ardmore Woodford
Arkoma Woodford
Cana-Woodford
Granite Wash-OK
Mississippian-OK
Other-OK North
Other-OK South
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Anadarko-OK
Ardmore Woodford
Arkoma Woodford
Cana-Woodford
Granite Wash-OK
Mississippian-OK
Other-OK North
Other-OK South Source: RBN
14
STACK/SCOOP (Cana Woodford) Production Forecast 8 7 6
Bcf/d
5 4 3 2 1 0
Cana Woodford
Ardmore Woodford
Arkoma Woodford
Mississippian Lime
Anadarko OK
Granite Wash
Other-OK North
Other-OK South
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: RBN
15
U.S. Natural Gas Markets: East vs. West
Marcellus/ Utica
Rockies
ST/SC Permian Southeast/ Gulf
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: RBN
16
Permian and SCOOP/STACK Infrastructure, Takeaway Capacity and Basis
Rusty Braziel 2323 S. Shepherd Drive, Suite 1010 Houston, TX, 77019
[email protected] www.rbnenergy.com
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
17
November 29, 2017
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
U.S. Production of Crude, Natural Gas, & NGLs
7
55 6
50
5
45
4
40
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
3.1
2.8
2.8
9.0
20 2.6
8.8
2.5 15 2.4
8.5
U.S. NGL Production From Gas Processing
Permian MMb/d
60
25
9.3
Thousands
65
3.7 U.S. Lower 48Oil Production U.S. Crude Total U.S. 30 Dry Gas 3.4 3.0 Permian Production 9.5
MMB/d
MMB/d
8
70
35
U.S Total MMb/d
9
U.S. Crude Oil Production
75
Bcf/d
10
2.2 2.2
8.3
10
8.0
Marcellus /Utica
2.0 1.9
5
1.6
-
1.3
Source: EIA/RBN
2
Crude Oil Production by Basin 3,000
3,000
Bakken M/bbl
2,000
2,500
1,500 1,000
2,000
-
-
2,500
M/bbl
2,000 1,500
3,000
Permian
2,500
Eagle Ford
2,000 1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
-
-
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Anadarko
1,000 500
3,000
Niobrara
1,500
500
M/bbl
M/bbl
2,500
Niobrara & Anadarko
Source: EIA/RBN
3
LLS/WTI/Brent Price Relationships $30
Brent - WTI
$25
$15
$10 $5
Brent - LLS
$/Bbl
$/Bbl
$20
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0 -$5 -$10
WTI Cushing
$0 Brent
-$5 LLS St James
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: Bloomberg
4
Brent vs. WTI Differential Driving Crude Exports $7.00
2,000
Brent vs. WTI/Cushing Differential
U.S. Crude Oil Exports
$6.00
Brent-WTI/Cushing 6 Mo. Average
1,500 $4.93
Mb/d
$/Bbl
$5.00 $4.00
1,000
$3.00 $2.68
$2.00
$1.00
$1.52
$0.00
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
500
$1.71
0
Source: Bloomberg, EIA/RBN
5
The Bottleneck $4
Cushing
Brent - LLS
$/Bbl
$2 $0 -$2 -$4
Permian $8.00 LLS – WTI @ Cushing $6.00
$/Bbl
$4.00 St James
$2.00 $0.00
Houston Corpus
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
6
Permian Crude Oil Infrastructure/ Price Cycles
2.0
$25 $20
MMb/d
$15
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
1.5 1.0
$10
$5
0.5
$0
0.0
-$5
Midland – Cushing Differential - $/BBl
2.5
Production Cushing-Midland Differential Average Differential LLS-Midland
7
Permian Crude Oil Infrastructure/ Price Cycles
3.0
MMb/d
2.5
2.0
Takeaway Capacity
$8.00
Production History
$7.00
$/bbl Cush-Mid Differential
$6.00
$/bbl LLS-Mid Differential
$5.00 $4.00 $3.00
1.5 1.0
$2.00
$1.00 $0.00
0.5 0.0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
-$1.00
Midland – Cushing/LLS Differential $/BBl
3.5
-$2.00
8
MMb/d
3.5
Planned Capacity Production History $/bbl Cush-Mid Differential
Takeaway Capacity RBN Prod. Forecast $/bbl LLS-Mid Differential
$8.00 $7.00
3.0
$6.00
2.5
$5.00
2.0
$4.00 $3.00
1.5
$2.00
1.0
$1.00 $0.00
0.5 0.0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
-$1.00 -$2.00
Midland – Cushing/LLS Differential $/BBl
Permian Crude Oil Infrastructure/ Price Cycles
RBN Growth Scenario
9
North American Crude Oil Pipeline Projects Plains- Basin Expansion (+350) 900 Mb/d 2019
Enterprise- Midland to Sealy 450 Mb/d 1H-2018
Sunoco- Permian Longview and Louisiana Extension 100 Mb/d 2Q-2016 Sunoco- Permian Express III Expansion (+100) 400 Mb/d 4Q-2017
Magellan- BridgeTex Expansion (+100) 400 Mb/d 2Q-2017
Plains- Cactus Expansion (+140) 390 Mb/d 2Q-2017
Buckeye- South Texas Gateway 400 Mb/d 2019
TexStar Logistics- EPIC 200-450 Mb/d 1Q-2019
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
10
PADD 3 Receipts by Pipeline from PADD 2 1,800 1,600 1,400
Mb/d
1,200
1,000 800 600 400 200 0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: EIA
11
Permian Natural Gas Takeaway Capacity 14.0 12.0
Bcf/d
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Assumes Pipelines Fill Energy Transfer – Trans-Pecos Energy Transfer – Comanche Trail
TPP CTP Roadrunner Enterprise/DCP ET Fuel/Enterprise Oasis Atmos Transwestern EPNG NGPL NNG Demand History Growth Scenario
12
Oklahoma Rig Counts – 9/19/2014 vs 6/24/2016 vs 10/27/2017 100 75
80
9/19/14 6/24/16 11/17/2017
20
40
8 9
0
20
Mississippian
0 100 80 60 40 20 0
35
6 3 Granite Wash 100
82 100 80 60 40 20 0
38
40 20
0
0 0 0
100 80 60 40 20 0
8 2 8 Arkoma Woodford
80 60
4 0 0 Other
101
Cana Woodford
Anadarko
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
60
40
100 80 60 40 20 0
Producing Basins Legend Cana Woodford Ardmore Woodford Granite Wash Anadarko – Other Mississippian Arkoma Woodford Other OK
80
60
11
0 1
Ardmore Woodford
Source: Baker Hughes
13
Oklahoma Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production 500
7.0
Crude Oil
450
6.0
400
5.0
350 Bcf/d
300 Mb/d
Natural Gas
250 200
3.0
150
2.0
100
Cushing
4.0
1.0
50 0
0.0
Anadarko-OK
Ardmore Woodford
Arkoma Woodford
Cana-Woodford
Granite Wash-OK
Mississippian-OK
Other-OK North
Other-OK South
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Anadarko-OK
Ardmore Woodford
Arkoma Woodford
Cana-Woodford
Granite Wash-OK
Mississippian-OK
Other-OK North
Other-OK South Source: RBN
14
STACK/SCOOP (Cana Woodford) Production Forecast 8 7 6
Bcf/d
5 4 3 2 1 0
Cana Woodford
Ardmore Woodford
Arkoma Woodford
Mississippian Lime
Anadarko OK
Granite Wash
Other-OK North
Other-OK South
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: RBN
15
U.S. Natural Gas Markets: East vs. West
Marcellus/ Utica
Rockies
ST/SC Permian Southeast/ Gulf
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
Source: RBN
16
Permian and SCOOP/STACK Infrastructure, Takeaway Capacity and Basis
Rusty Braziel 2323 S. Shepherd Drive, Suite 1010 Houston, TX, 77019
[email protected] www.rbnenergy.com
© Copyright 2017 RBN Energy
17
