Statista CMO Methodology EN
CONSUMER MARKET OUTLOOK PRODUCT & METHODOLOGY Hamburg, May 2017
OVERVIEW Product & Methodology 03
Consumer Market Outlook – Product Overview
15
Approach & Methodology Modeling process Data sources Market sizing Forecasts
21
FAQ
25
Contact information
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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PRODUCT OVERVIEW
OUR SERVICES Product Overview What is the Consumer Market Outlook? The Statista Consumer Market Outlook provides data on market sizes and forecasts for more than 150 consumer products and passenger cars. The service currently covers 16 key categories of consumer goods as well as 10 classes of cars along the 70 most relevant makes.
Revenue performance forecast
Clear market segmentation
The data is based on market models that allow the quick identification of market segments and growth opportunities with a global perspective.
Realistic growth rates
Our goal
Direct comparability of all countries and markets
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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With the Consumer Market Outlook, we provide intuitive access to reliable, comparable and immediately process able information on the most important consumer markets in North America, Europe, Asia and other regions.
MORE THAN 150 SEGMENTS IN 16 CATEGORIES Product Overview Alcoholic Drinks
Cosmetics and Personal Care
Toys and Games
Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Tissue and Hygiene Paper
Consumer Electronics
Hot Drinks
Clothes
Household Appliances
Tobacco
Shoes
Furniture
Food
Eyewear
Passenger Cars – NEW!
Home and Laundry Care
Accessories
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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Value and volume forecasts, market shares and industry KPIs, market and segment-specific reports as well as a total of more than 150 product segments.
GLOBAL CAR SALES DATA - ALL IN ONE PLACE Product Overview -Automotive Explore Car Sales on a Global Scale
Revenue, Volume and Prices
The automotive category within the Statista Consumer Market Outlook (CMO) offers data on worldwide new car sales of passenger cars, starting with EU and the USA. Countries to follow: China, Japan, S. Korea, India, Brazil, Canada, Switzerland, Mexico, Thailand and others.
Interactive statistics let you view cross-sections of make and segment by country, providing you with information on Revenue, Volume Sales, Price per Unit, Key Market Indicators.
Drill down by Car Segment and Make 10 international car segments Mini Cars
Executive Cars
Small SUVs
Small Cars
Luxury Cars
Large SUVs
Medium Cars
Sports Cars
Large Cars
Minivans
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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70 major makes, including: Audi, BMW, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, GMC, Great Wall, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Kia, Land Rover, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Opel, Peugeot, Renault, Saab, Škoda, SsangYong, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo and many more
COMPARABLE INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATION Product Overview -Automotive Statista Segment US Car Segment
European Car Segment
Alternative name
Example Models
Mini Cars
Minicompact Cars
A - Mini Cars
City Cars, Microcars
Fiat 500, Hyundai i10, Peugeot 107
Small Cars
Subcompact Cars
B - Small Cars
Light Cars, Superminis
Citroën C3, Ford Fiesta, Volkswagen Polo
Medium Cars
Compact Cars
C - Medium Cars
Small Family Cars
BMW 1 Series, Seat León, Volkswagen Golf
Large Cars
Mid-size Cars
D - Large Cars
Large Family Cars, Compact Executive Honda Accord, Peugeot 407, Škoda Superb Cars, Entry-level Luxury Cars
Executive Cars
Large Cars
E - Executive Cars
Full-size Cars, Mid-size Luxury Cars
Audi A6, Jaguar XF, Mercedes-Benz E-Class
Luxury Cars
Large Cars
F - Luxury Cars
Full-size Luxury Cars, High-end Luxury Cars, Oberklasse
Audi A8, Jaguar XJ, Mercedes-Benz S-Class
Sports Cars
Sports Cars
S - Sports Coupes
Two-seaters
Aston Martin DB9, Jaguar XK, Mercedes-Benz CLK
MPV, Minivan
M - Multi-Purpose Cars
MPV, Multi-Purpose Cars, People Carrier
Citroën C3 Picasso, Mazda 5, Toyota Verso
Small SUVs
Small SUVs
J - Sport Utility Cars Mini SUVs, Compact SUVs, Mini 4x4
Daihatsu Terios, Kia Sorento, Peugeot 4007
Large SUVs
Large SUVs
J - Sport Utility Cars
Mid-size SUVs, Full-size SUVs, Large 4x4
BMW X5, Land Rover Discovery, Volvo XC90
Minivans
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For the complete classification, please check our table.
EASILY ACCESSIBLE CONSUMER INSIGHTS Product Overview - Automotive Price research and modelling Revenue estimates and forecasts in the automotive category are based on Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAP) of the base models. This consumer oriented approach takes into account the Manufacturer Suggest Retail Price (MSRP) including taxes for each vehicle in the basic configuration. Thus it represents a theoretical value – actual revenue is influenced by various factors including different drivetrain technologies and motorizations, exterior and exterior design elements, equipment etc. as well as financing options. But: The VWAP model provides a comparable value for the economic performance of each manufacturer across all markets from a consumer centric point of view.
Forecasting
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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The forecasting model in the automotive category of the CMO takes into account the historic data on brand, segment and country level as well as product properties, aiming at forecasting consumer demand rather than manufacturer output. New releases, model facelifts or environmental policy changes are currently not taken into account.
MORE THAN 70 AUTOMOTIVE MAKES Product Overview - Automotive Abarth
Daewoo
Jeep
Mercedes-Benz
Acura
Daihatsu
Alfa Romeo
Dodge
Aston Martin
K
Kia
MG
SEAT
L
Lada
Mia
Škoda
DR Motor Company
Lamborghini
Mini
Smart
Ferrari
Lancia
Mitsubishi
SSangYong
Bentley
Fiat
Land Rover
Morgan
Subaru
BMW
Fisker
Lexus
N
Nissan
Suzuki
Bolloré
Ford
Lincoln
O
Opel
GMC
Lotus
P
Perodua
Tesla
Great Wall
LTI
Peugeot
TH!NK
Mahindra
Porsche
Toyota
Proton
Audi B
Buick C
G
Cadillac Caterham Cars
D
F
H
Honda
M
Chevrolet
Hummer
Maserati
Chrysler
Hyundai
Maybach
R
T
V
Saab
Tata
Vauxhall
Ram
Volkswagen Volvo
Citroën
I
Infiniti
Mazda
Renault
Dacia
J
Jaguar
McLaren
Rolls-Royce
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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W
Wiesmann
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A
COVERAGE – 40 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE
40 countries1 About 1.2 billion households with more than 4.3 billion consumers Roughly 79% of global GDP 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights 1 Due
to data availability not all markets are available in all countries
Europe: Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Estonia Finland France United Kingdom Ireland Italy Croatia Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Austria Poland Portugal Romania Sweden Switzerland Slovakia Slovenia Spain Czech Republic Hungary
North America: Canada USA
From May 2017 Asia: China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippine sSingapore South Korea Thailand Vietnam
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Product Overview
HEALTH AWARENESS PUTS PRESSURE ON BIG SODA Product Overview – Analysis of category trends
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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© Statista
While soft drink consumption has been in decline in the United States for over two decades, bottled water has gained in popularity as a non-caloric liquid refreshment alternative. With city councils all over the country debating sugar or soda taxes, bottled water is projected to overtake the soft drink category in 2019 in terms of per capita consumption.
FINLAND HAS HIGHEST CONSUMPTION FOR COFFEE IN EUROPE Product Overview – International comparisons
United Kingdom (1.6kg) 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Finland (9.9kg)
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Coffee consumption per capita in 2015 in kg
Each year, Europeans drink on average about 500 cups of coffee. Consequently, they like to spend a lot of money on their much-loved bean beverage: roughly 47€ per year. The Finns tend to take the longest coffee breaks and top the list of per capita consumption with nearly 10kg of coffee per Finn and years – this translates to more than 1.300 cups!
KEY BENEFITS Product Overview More than 90,000 interactive statistics
+ Intuitive access to key figures of the most important
› ›
+ Clear and comprehensive market segmentation at
All data directly available to download Completely integrated into the Statista database
international consumer markets*
product level in compliance with international standards (e.g. ISIC, HS etc.)
+ Full international data comparability + Enormously multifaceted international data base,
which uses information from official national and international statistics, information provided by trade associations, our own research and the comprehensive Statista database.
+ Standardized key figures for realistic assumptions and comparisons (per capita spending, per capita consumption etc.)
+ More than 300 country-specific structural indicators on population, demographics, economy, infrastructure and politics
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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* 25 European countries; North America, Switzerland and Norway will follow in Q4 2016, additional regions in 2017
START YOUR SEARCH WITH OUR RESULTS Product Overview Our approach
Our experts aggregate and keep up-to-date all relevant market data from numerous reliable sources, check and compare information and carry out plausibility checks of external analysts‘ assessments, measured data, survey results and performance indicators of relevant market players. We will carry out the time-consuming and complex data research and synthesize the large range of data available into a consistent and clear view on the development of markets for you.
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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More than 18,000 sources in our Statista database Primary market research External market studies
Analysis › › ›
Data synthesis and validation Analysts‘ assessments International comparisons
Visualization › › ›
Easy-to-understand visualization Various downloadable formats Further process your data immediately
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Data gains significance through relevant context, clear visualization and clear definitions. We combine these three factors in order to maximize the informative value of the data and statistics and to be able to make comparisons. Our goal: Making your search for information easier.
Research
APPROACH & METHODOLOGY
STEP BY STEP MODELLING PROCESS Approach & Methodology
Compilation of a comprehensive, international pool of data sources
•
A team of international experts identifies and evaluates all data available Most important sources: Databases of international institutions, national statistical offices, associations and specialist publications
3 DATA PROCESSING
DATA COLLECTION
•
Description
2
Normalization, imputation, weighting and aggregation of data
•
• •
Standardization of data in compliance with internationally comparable formats (e.g. ISIC, HS etc.) Imputation of missing data Case-specific selection of optimal method
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
4 MODELING & FORECASTING
VALIDATION
Market modeling, market sizing and forecasting
•
•
Bottom-up modeling of the market segments and markets Driver-based forecasts of the development of the next 5 years
5
•
Plausibility and consistency checks of all data Series Data validation using external sources
UPDATES / REPORTS
OUTPUT
Validation and adjustment of forecasts
•
6
•
•
Summarization into market-KPIs and preparation for the Statista platform
Regular updates of the existing markets, addition of new markets, industry reports
Summarizing markets into KPIs: Market size, growth, structure, per capita consumption etc. Preparation of data for the Statista platform including download function
• •
•
•
Cyclic updates of existing markets Incremental addition of new markets (OTC pharmaceuticals, sporting goods…) Expansion of geographic coverage (beginning with Asia) Market and segment reports (starting with Hot Drinks)
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Goal
Step
1
MAIN DATA SOURCES Approach & Methodology ›
The main data sources feeding into the Consumer Market Outlook are publicly available statistics from national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies and the relevant trade press. In addition, the Statista database with more than 18.000 individual sources in total is used to complement and enhance the footing of the market models.
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The main types of data used to model are statistics on industrial production, international trade, prices and consumption. For forecasting in particular, structural indicators on the macroeconomic environment (GDP, population, inflation etc.) are taken into account. International Institutions
Trade Associations
Companies and trade press
All data included in the Consumer Market Outlook are carefully crafted estimates based on market models with multiple sources and analyst’s judgment. Contrary to other platform content on Statista we therefore do not reference a single source for every timeline. Instead, Statista is the source.
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Statistical Offices
STANDARDIZING RAW DATA Approach & Methodology
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The raw data used in the market models is usually structured according to national standards (e.g. NAICS or North American Industry Classification System) which are translated into the segment structure of the Consumer Market Outlook using internationally standardized reference tables so comparability of the market composition is ensured across all countries. The segmentation of the Consumer Market Outlook itself is based on the UN standards of the “International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activity” (ISIC), the “Harmonized System” (HS) and the “Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose” (COICOP). Individual missing or defective data points and timelines are approximated using various imputation techniques. In the case of totally missing data a driver-based cluster analysis is undertaken that takes into account data from similarly structured countries and differentials of known related indicators (e.g. upstream data on key commodities)
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
…
…
CSIC
BEC
JSIC
SITC
NACE
CPC
NAICS
COICOP
ISIC
HS
Fashion
Alcoholic Drinks
Consumer Electronics
Food
…
…
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ASSESSING THE MARKET SIZE Approach & Methodology The basic modelling concept is the domestic supply where consumption is estimated bottom-up using the available supply of any given product in a certain year. It is calculated with data on industrial production and international trade (supply = production + imports – exports).
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The domestic supply is valued at retail prices by taking into account manufacturer’s selling prices (MSP) and import prices and adding typical markups for wholesale and retail distribution. In addition, Statista conducts additional price research to validate the results.
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Other sources such as household budget surveys on a national level and results of market research from retail and consumer panels complements the demand side estimates.
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All markets are assessed at retail prices including country- and product-specific sales taxes and excise duties.
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Market
Price Modeling MSP
%
Markup Wholesale
%
Markup Retail
Domestic Supply
Production
+
Imports
-
Exports
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DRIVER BASED FORECASTING Approach & Methodology Original/Modeled data Trend line
CMO forecast
Powered by market drivers and trends
CMO unique market driver A combination of different macroeconomic and market specific factors
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Trend forecast based on analyst judgement
Combining drivers and trends
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The CMO forecasts are driver based projections of the past trend into the future.
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Drivers are the determining factors that are driving a market to change. CMO Market Drivers are based on:
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The first step in this process is determining realistic trend lines using previously modelled data. The type of underlying trend is determined by analyst judgement (e.g. linear, s-curve, etc.) and takes into account the characteristics of the market and the region.
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Market research e.g. price trends, new technological developments, etc.
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Macro-economic factors e.g. inflation, GDP, etc.
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Market-specific factors e.g. internet penetration, supermarket spending on particular products, etc. 20
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2010
FAQ
FAQ - GENERAL Consumer Market Outlook Who can access the Consumer Market Outlook?
Can I download the data?
The Consumer Market Outlook data is included in all Statista Corporate & Enterprise accounts with ongoing contracts.
Market Value
Yes. You can download the data as an Excel- or PNG-file. Download buttons can be found in the different box diagrams in the lower left corner. An extension of the export functionality including more download formats and the possibility of downloading all data for a selected market segment at once is planned and will soon be available.
Market Volume
When is the data being updated?
Price Per Unit
The market data is updated once a year. However, in some cases the data for individual markets is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g. when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have impact on the projected development).
• • • • •
International comparison Market indicators (e.g. consumer spending and inflation)
How many markets are available in the Consumer Market Outlook?
• 16 verticals (e.g. Hot Drinks) are divided into • A total of more than 150 product groups (e.g. instant coffee)
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
A time stamp at the bottom of each diagram shows the latest available update. Update cycles vary from market to market in terms of data availability.
Will there be more markets in the future? New regions, market segments or completely new markets will be added in the future. Data on Asian countries is due to be published in early Q3 2017. Please feel free to contact us for further information on upcoming markets.
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What kind of data does the Consumer Market Outlook contain?
FAQ – DATA & METHODOLOGY Consumer Market Outlook How are the markets defined?
How are the market values calculated?
All markets are defined at the beginning of each content page. You can read a short introduction about what products, services or categories are included in our market scope and what is out-of-scope.
We use a bottom-up approach to derive our market sizes and trends. Our research of the underlying data allows us to understand the processes that drive the markets and how the development is influenced. The foundation of our market model is the domestic supply within the respective product segment, which is valued at retail prices. The price modeling is carried out based on the manufacturer price as well as product- and country-specific trade margins. All revenue numbers include any applicable sales tax and excise (e.g. coffee or beer tax).
Which data sources are the bases for the market data? The Consumer Market Outlook uses a large number of different, market specific sources for the analytical modeling of each market. The most important sources are official statistics on production and commerce, household budget survey, information provided by trade associations and companies as well as consumer surveys. An overview of the sources for each market can be found in the methodology. In addition to sources that are only used for single markets, there are some sources with general data such as macroeconomic data including, among many others, the World Bank, the European Commission’s central database and OECD. 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Our analysis methods combine different types of data to get a holistic view of the markets from different perspectives in terms of economic development, changes in consumer behavior and social trends. These data points include statistical macro-data on a country-level, insights from market research, as well as analysis of trade associations in each market.
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Furthermore, we provide a brief explanation and market definition that is accessed by clicking on the download button on top of each content page. If a question is still unanswered please get in touch with us. We are always happy to help you out and to improve our product.
FAQ – TECHNICAL ISSUES & SUPPORT Consumer Market Outlook
All monetary data is standardized to EUR values to allow further calculation. For the EUR to USD conversion the average exchange rate of the last available full year is used and projected assuming fixed rates for the forecast period to avoid the influence of exchange rate deviations on the general market dynamic. The source for the historical data is oanda.com. Currently, there isn’t the option to directly switch between currencies. Please visit de.statista.com/outlook for EUR figures and statista.com/outlook for USD figures. A function to easily change between currencies is planned. Can you directly compare the market data from different countries? A country comparison is given in the „Global Comparison Box“, which is not yet editable, but shows the top five countries (by market value) plus the currently selected country within the respective segment. A methodological comparability of the figures of individual countries is maintained at all times. In order to intensively compare and calculate with different country values, we will deliver enhanced download functionalities to improve data accessibility in standard formats such as XLS-files in the near future. 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Who do I contact in case of feedback or questions regarding the content of the Consumer Market Outlook? For all content support requests please get in touch with our customer support. The request will be forwarded immediately to the responsible market analyst who can give you relevant feedback. Who do I notify about technical errors? Please make sure that you are logged-in with a Statista Corporate or Enterprise Account to have full access to our exclusive Consumer Market Outlook features. With all technical support requests please get in touch with our customer support. The request will be forwarded immediately to our IT department who will fix the errors as soon as possible.
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Which currency rates are used for the forecasts?
CONTACT Your contact persons
Dr. Friedrich Schwandt CEO [email protected]
Statista GmbH Johannes-Brahms-Platz 1 20355 Hamburg Deutschland
Statista, Inc. 55 Broad Street; 30th floor New York, NY 10004 United States
Statista Ltd. Hudson House, 8 Tavistock St London WC2E 7PP United Kingdom
Web: de.statista.com
Web: statista.com
Web: statista.com
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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Nicolas Loose Head of Market Research Strategic Market Insights [email protected]
OVERVIEW Product & Methodology 03
Consumer Market Outlook – Product Overview
15
Approach & Methodology Modeling process Data sources Market sizing Forecasts
21
FAQ
25
Contact information
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
2
© Statista
› › › ›
PRODUCT OVERVIEW
OUR SERVICES Product Overview What is the Consumer Market Outlook? The Statista Consumer Market Outlook provides data on market sizes and forecasts for more than 150 consumer products and passenger cars. The service currently covers 16 key categories of consumer goods as well as 10 classes of cars along the 70 most relevant makes.
Revenue performance forecast
Clear market segmentation
The data is based on market models that allow the quick identification of market segments and growth opportunities with a global perspective.
Realistic growth rates
Our goal
Direct comparability of all countries and markets
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
4
© Statista
With the Consumer Market Outlook, we provide intuitive access to reliable, comparable and immediately process able information on the most important consumer markets in North America, Europe, Asia and other regions.
MORE THAN 150 SEGMENTS IN 16 CATEGORIES Product Overview Alcoholic Drinks
Cosmetics and Personal Care
Toys and Games
Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Tissue and Hygiene Paper
Consumer Electronics
Hot Drinks
Clothes
Household Appliances
Tobacco
Shoes
Furniture
Food
Eyewear
Passenger Cars – NEW!
Home and Laundry Care
Accessories
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
5
© Statista
Value and volume forecasts, market shares and industry KPIs, market and segment-specific reports as well as a total of more than 150 product segments.
GLOBAL CAR SALES DATA - ALL IN ONE PLACE Product Overview -Automotive Explore Car Sales on a Global Scale
Revenue, Volume and Prices
The automotive category within the Statista Consumer Market Outlook (CMO) offers data on worldwide new car sales of passenger cars, starting with EU and the USA. Countries to follow: China, Japan, S. Korea, India, Brazil, Canada, Switzerland, Mexico, Thailand and others.
Interactive statistics let you view cross-sections of make and segment by country, providing you with information on Revenue, Volume Sales, Price per Unit, Key Market Indicators.
Drill down by Car Segment and Make 10 international car segments Mini Cars
Executive Cars
Small SUVs
Small Cars
Luxury Cars
Large SUVs
Medium Cars
Sports Cars
Large Cars
Minivans
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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70 major makes, including: Audi, BMW, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, GMC, Great Wall, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Kia, Land Rover, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Opel, Peugeot, Renault, Saab, Škoda, SsangYong, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo and many more
COMPARABLE INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATION Product Overview -Automotive Statista Segment US Car Segment
European Car Segment
Alternative name
Example Models
Mini Cars
Minicompact Cars
A - Mini Cars
City Cars, Microcars
Fiat 500, Hyundai i10, Peugeot 107
Small Cars
Subcompact Cars
B - Small Cars
Light Cars, Superminis
Citroën C3, Ford Fiesta, Volkswagen Polo
Medium Cars
Compact Cars
C - Medium Cars
Small Family Cars
BMW 1 Series, Seat León, Volkswagen Golf
Large Cars
Mid-size Cars
D - Large Cars
Large Family Cars, Compact Executive Honda Accord, Peugeot 407, Škoda Superb Cars, Entry-level Luxury Cars
Executive Cars
Large Cars
E - Executive Cars
Full-size Cars, Mid-size Luxury Cars
Audi A6, Jaguar XF, Mercedes-Benz E-Class
Luxury Cars
Large Cars
F - Luxury Cars
Full-size Luxury Cars, High-end Luxury Cars, Oberklasse
Audi A8, Jaguar XJ, Mercedes-Benz S-Class
Sports Cars
Sports Cars
S - Sports Coupes
Two-seaters
Aston Martin DB9, Jaguar XK, Mercedes-Benz CLK
MPV, Minivan
M - Multi-Purpose Cars
MPV, Multi-Purpose Cars, People Carrier
Citroën C3 Picasso, Mazda 5, Toyota Verso
Small SUVs
Small SUVs
J - Sport Utility Cars Mini SUVs, Compact SUVs, Mini 4x4
Daihatsu Terios, Kia Sorento, Peugeot 4007
Large SUVs
Large SUVs
J - Sport Utility Cars
Mid-size SUVs, Full-size SUVs, Large 4x4
BMW X5, Land Rover Discovery, Volvo XC90
Minivans
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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For the complete classification, please check our table.
EASILY ACCESSIBLE CONSUMER INSIGHTS Product Overview - Automotive Price research and modelling Revenue estimates and forecasts in the automotive category are based on Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAP) of the base models. This consumer oriented approach takes into account the Manufacturer Suggest Retail Price (MSRP) including taxes for each vehicle in the basic configuration. Thus it represents a theoretical value – actual revenue is influenced by various factors including different drivetrain technologies and motorizations, exterior and exterior design elements, equipment etc. as well as financing options. But: The VWAP model provides a comparable value for the economic performance of each manufacturer across all markets from a consumer centric point of view.
Forecasting
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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The forecasting model in the automotive category of the CMO takes into account the historic data on brand, segment and country level as well as product properties, aiming at forecasting consumer demand rather than manufacturer output. New releases, model facelifts or environmental policy changes are currently not taken into account.
MORE THAN 70 AUTOMOTIVE MAKES Product Overview - Automotive Abarth
Daewoo
Jeep
Mercedes-Benz
Acura
Daihatsu
Alfa Romeo
Dodge
Aston Martin
K
Kia
MG
SEAT
L
Lada
Mia
Škoda
DR Motor Company
Lamborghini
Mini
Smart
Ferrari
Lancia
Mitsubishi
SSangYong
Bentley
Fiat
Land Rover
Morgan
Subaru
BMW
Fisker
Lexus
N
Nissan
Suzuki
Bolloré
Ford
Lincoln
O
Opel
GMC
Lotus
P
Perodua
Tesla
Great Wall
LTI
Peugeot
TH!NK
Mahindra
Porsche
Toyota
Proton
Audi B
Buick C
G
Cadillac Caterham Cars
D
F
H
Honda
M
Chevrolet
Hummer
Maserati
Chrysler
Hyundai
Maybach
R
T
V
Saab
Tata
Vauxhall
Ram
Volkswagen Volvo
Citroën
I
Infiniti
Mazda
Renault
Dacia
J
Jaguar
McLaren
Rolls-Royce
2016, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
S
W
Wiesmann
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A
COVERAGE – 40 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE
40 countries1 About 1.2 billion households with more than 4.3 billion consumers Roughly 79% of global GDP 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights 1 Due
to data availability not all markets are available in all countries
Europe: Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Estonia Finland France United Kingdom Ireland Italy Croatia Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Austria Poland Portugal Romania Sweden Switzerland Slovakia Slovenia Spain Czech Republic Hungary
North America: Canada USA
From May 2017 Asia: China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippine sSingapore South Korea Thailand Vietnam
10
© Statista
Product Overview
HEALTH AWARENESS PUTS PRESSURE ON BIG SODA Product Overview – Analysis of category trends
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
11
© Statista
While soft drink consumption has been in decline in the United States for over two decades, bottled water has gained in popularity as a non-caloric liquid refreshment alternative. With city councils all over the country debating sugar or soda taxes, bottled water is projected to overtake the soft drink category in 2019 in terms of per capita consumption.
FINLAND HAS HIGHEST CONSUMPTION FOR COFFEE IN EUROPE Product Overview – International comparisons
United Kingdom (1.6kg) 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Finland (9.9kg)
12
© Statista
Coffee consumption per capita in 2015 in kg
Each year, Europeans drink on average about 500 cups of coffee. Consequently, they like to spend a lot of money on their much-loved bean beverage: roughly 47€ per year. The Finns tend to take the longest coffee breaks and top the list of per capita consumption with nearly 10kg of coffee per Finn and years – this translates to more than 1.300 cups!
KEY BENEFITS Product Overview More than 90,000 interactive statistics
+ Intuitive access to key figures of the most important
› ›
+ Clear and comprehensive market segmentation at
All data directly available to download Completely integrated into the Statista database
international consumer markets*
product level in compliance with international standards (e.g. ISIC, HS etc.)
+ Full international data comparability + Enormously multifaceted international data base,
which uses information from official national and international statistics, information provided by trade associations, our own research and the comprehensive Statista database.
+ Standardized key figures for realistic assumptions and comparisons (per capita spending, per capita consumption etc.)
+ More than 300 country-specific structural indicators on population, demographics, economy, infrastructure and politics
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* 25 European countries; North America, Switzerland and Norway will follow in Q4 2016, additional regions in 2017
START YOUR SEARCH WITH OUR RESULTS Product Overview Our approach
Our experts aggregate and keep up-to-date all relevant market data from numerous reliable sources, check and compare information and carry out plausibility checks of external analysts‘ assessments, measured data, survey results and performance indicators of relevant market players. We will carry out the time-consuming and complex data research and synthesize the large range of data available into a consistent and clear view on the development of markets for you.
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
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More than 18,000 sources in our Statista database Primary market research External market studies
Analysis › › ›
Data synthesis and validation Analysts‘ assessments International comparisons
Visualization › › ›
Easy-to-understand visualization Various downloadable formats Further process your data immediately
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Data gains significance through relevant context, clear visualization and clear definitions. We combine these three factors in order to maximize the informative value of the data and statistics and to be able to make comparisons. Our goal: Making your search for information easier.
Research
APPROACH & METHODOLOGY
STEP BY STEP MODELLING PROCESS Approach & Methodology
Compilation of a comprehensive, international pool of data sources
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A team of international experts identifies and evaluates all data available Most important sources: Databases of international institutions, national statistical offices, associations and specialist publications
3 DATA PROCESSING
DATA COLLECTION
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Description
2
Normalization, imputation, weighting and aggregation of data
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Standardization of data in compliance with internationally comparable formats (e.g. ISIC, HS etc.) Imputation of missing data Case-specific selection of optimal method
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4 MODELING & FORECASTING
VALIDATION
Market modeling, market sizing and forecasting
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Bottom-up modeling of the market segments and markets Driver-based forecasts of the development of the next 5 years
5
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Plausibility and consistency checks of all data Series Data validation using external sources
UPDATES / REPORTS
OUTPUT
Validation and adjustment of forecasts
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6
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Summarization into market-KPIs and preparation for the Statista platform
Regular updates of the existing markets, addition of new markets, industry reports
Summarizing markets into KPIs: Market size, growth, structure, per capita consumption etc. Preparation of data for the Statista platform including download function
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Cyclic updates of existing markets Incremental addition of new markets (OTC pharmaceuticals, sporting goods…) Expansion of geographic coverage (beginning with Asia) Market and segment reports (starting with Hot Drinks)
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Goal
Step
1
MAIN DATA SOURCES Approach & Methodology ›
The main data sources feeding into the Consumer Market Outlook are publicly available statistics from national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies and the relevant trade press. In addition, the Statista database with more than 18.000 individual sources in total is used to complement and enhance the footing of the market models.
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The main types of data used to model are statistics on industrial production, international trade, prices and consumption. For forecasting in particular, structural indicators on the macroeconomic environment (GDP, population, inflation etc.) are taken into account. International Institutions
Trade Associations
Companies and trade press
All data included in the Consumer Market Outlook are carefully crafted estimates based on market models with multiple sources and analyst’s judgment. Contrary to other platform content on Statista we therefore do not reference a single source for every timeline. Instead, Statista is the source.
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Statistical Offices
STANDARDIZING RAW DATA Approach & Methodology
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The raw data used in the market models is usually structured according to national standards (e.g. NAICS or North American Industry Classification System) which are translated into the segment structure of the Consumer Market Outlook using internationally standardized reference tables so comparability of the market composition is ensured across all countries. The segmentation of the Consumer Market Outlook itself is based on the UN standards of the “International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activity” (ISIC), the “Harmonized System” (HS) and the “Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose” (COICOP). Individual missing or defective data points and timelines are approximated using various imputation techniques. In the case of totally missing data a driver-based cluster analysis is undertaken that takes into account data from similarly structured countries and differentials of known related indicators (e.g. upstream data on key commodities)
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
…
…
CSIC
BEC
JSIC
SITC
NACE
CPC
NAICS
COICOP
ISIC
HS
Fashion
Alcoholic Drinks
Consumer Electronics
Food
…
…
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ASSESSING THE MARKET SIZE Approach & Methodology The basic modelling concept is the domestic supply where consumption is estimated bottom-up using the available supply of any given product in a certain year. It is calculated with data on industrial production and international trade (supply = production + imports – exports).
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The domestic supply is valued at retail prices by taking into account manufacturer’s selling prices (MSP) and import prices and adding typical markups for wholesale and retail distribution. In addition, Statista conducts additional price research to validate the results.
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Other sources such as household budget surveys on a national level and results of market research from retail and consumer panels complements the demand side estimates.
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All markets are assessed at retail prices including country- and product-specific sales taxes and excise duties.
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Market
Price Modeling MSP
%
Markup Wholesale
%
Markup Retail
Domestic Supply
Production
+
Imports
-
Exports
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DRIVER BASED FORECASTING Approach & Methodology Original/Modeled data Trend line
CMO forecast
Powered by market drivers and trends
CMO unique market driver A combination of different macroeconomic and market specific factors
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Trend forecast based on analyst judgement
Combining drivers and trends
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The CMO forecasts are driver based projections of the past trend into the future.
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Drivers are the determining factors that are driving a market to change. CMO Market Drivers are based on:
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The first step in this process is determining realistic trend lines using previously modelled data. The type of underlying trend is determined by analyst judgement (e.g. linear, s-curve, etc.) and takes into account the characteristics of the market and the region.
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Market research e.g. price trends, new technological developments, etc.
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Macro-economic factors e.g. inflation, GDP, etc.
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Market-specific factors e.g. internet penetration, supermarket spending on particular products, etc. 20
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FAQ
FAQ - GENERAL Consumer Market Outlook Who can access the Consumer Market Outlook?
Can I download the data?
The Consumer Market Outlook data is included in all Statista Corporate & Enterprise accounts with ongoing contracts.
Market Value
Yes. You can download the data as an Excel- or PNG-file. Download buttons can be found in the different box diagrams in the lower left corner. An extension of the export functionality including more download formats and the possibility of downloading all data for a selected market segment at once is planned and will soon be available.
Market Volume
When is the data being updated?
Price Per Unit
The market data is updated once a year. However, in some cases the data for individual markets is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g. when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have impact on the projected development).
• • • • •
International comparison Market indicators (e.g. consumer spending and inflation)
How many markets are available in the Consumer Market Outlook?
• 16 verticals (e.g. Hot Drinks) are divided into • A total of more than 150 product groups (e.g. instant coffee)
2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
A time stamp at the bottom of each diagram shows the latest available update. Update cycles vary from market to market in terms of data availability.
Will there be more markets in the future? New regions, market segments or completely new markets will be added in the future. Data on Asian countries is due to be published in early Q3 2017. Please feel free to contact us for further information on upcoming markets.
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What kind of data does the Consumer Market Outlook contain?
FAQ – DATA & METHODOLOGY Consumer Market Outlook How are the markets defined?
How are the market values calculated?
All markets are defined at the beginning of each content page. You can read a short introduction about what products, services or categories are included in our market scope and what is out-of-scope.
We use a bottom-up approach to derive our market sizes and trends. Our research of the underlying data allows us to understand the processes that drive the markets and how the development is influenced. The foundation of our market model is the domestic supply within the respective product segment, which is valued at retail prices. The price modeling is carried out based on the manufacturer price as well as product- and country-specific trade margins. All revenue numbers include any applicable sales tax and excise (e.g. coffee or beer tax).
Which data sources are the bases for the market data? The Consumer Market Outlook uses a large number of different, market specific sources for the analytical modeling of each market. The most important sources are official statistics on production and commerce, household budget survey, information provided by trade associations and companies as well as consumer surveys. An overview of the sources for each market can be found in the methodology. In addition to sources that are only used for single markets, there are some sources with general data such as macroeconomic data including, among many others, the World Bank, the European Commission’s central database and OECD. 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Our analysis methods combine different types of data to get a holistic view of the markets from different perspectives in terms of economic development, changes in consumer behavior and social trends. These data points include statistical macro-data on a country-level, insights from market research, as well as analysis of trade associations in each market.
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Furthermore, we provide a brief explanation and market definition that is accessed by clicking on the download button on top of each content page. If a question is still unanswered please get in touch with us. We are always happy to help you out and to improve our product.
FAQ – TECHNICAL ISSUES & SUPPORT Consumer Market Outlook
All monetary data is standardized to EUR values to allow further calculation. For the EUR to USD conversion the average exchange rate of the last available full year is used and projected assuming fixed rates for the forecast period to avoid the influence of exchange rate deviations on the general market dynamic. The source for the historical data is oanda.com. Currently, there isn’t the option to directly switch between currencies. Please visit de.statista.com/outlook for EUR figures and statista.com/outlook for USD figures. A function to easily change between currencies is planned. Can you directly compare the market data from different countries? A country comparison is given in the „Global Comparison Box“, which is not yet editable, but shows the top five countries (by market value) plus the currently selected country within the respective segment. A methodological comparability of the figures of individual countries is maintained at all times. In order to intensively compare and calculate with different country values, we will deliver enhanced download functionalities to improve data accessibility in standard formats such as XLS-files in the near future. 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights
Who do I contact in case of feedback or questions regarding the content of the Consumer Market Outlook? For all content support requests please get in touch with our customer support. The request will be forwarded immediately to the responsible market analyst who can give you relevant feedback. Who do I notify about technical errors? Please make sure that you are logged-in with a Statista Corporate or Enterprise Account to have full access to our exclusive Consumer Market Outlook features. With all technical support requests please get in touch with our customer support. The request will be forwarded immediately to our IT department who will fix the errors as soon as possible.
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Which currency rates are used for the forecasts?
CONTACT Your contact persons
Dr. Friedrich Schwandt CEO [email protected]
Statista GmbH Johannes-Brahms-Platz 1 20355 Hamburg Deutschland
Statista, Inc. 55 Broad Street; 30th floor New York, NY 10004 United States
Statista Ltd. Hudson House, 8 Tavistock St London WC2E 7PP United Kingdom
Web: de.statista.com
Web: statista.com
Web: statista.com
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Nicolas Loose Head of Market Research Strategic Market Insights [email protected]
