Stirling by Numbers - 1 Population and Households

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2005/06

Stirling by Numbers

1 Population and Households Contents 1.1 Population estimates 1.2 Population by age and sex 1.3 Components of population change 1991-2003 1.4 Population trends 1991 - 2004 1.5 Urban and Rural Stirling 1.6 Settlement Ward and Community Council populations

1.1

1.7 Registration Statistics 1.8 Diversity – Ethnicity and Religion 1.9 Population Projections to 2018 1.10 Household Estimates 1.11 Projected households

Population Estimates

The General Register Office for Scotland - GROS - produce annual mid-year population estimates for Scotland’s local authorities. This estimate is calculated by rolling forward the previous year’s population and adjusting for births, deaths, and migration using NHS doctor registrations and other changes. Table 1.1 shows the latest population estimate for Stirling is 86,370. As with Scotland, Stirling has a slightly larger proportion of females than males. Table 1.1 – 2004 Mid-Year Estimate of Population, by Sex, Stirling and Scotland

Males Females Total Source: GROS 2005

1.2

Stirling Nos. 41,222 45,148 86,370

% 47.7% 52.3%

Scotland Nos. 2,446,248 2,632,152 5,078,400

% 48.2% 51.8%

Population by Age and Sex

Table 1.2 displays Stirling’s and Scotland’s population across nine different age groups representing preschool (0-4), primary school (5-11), secondary school (12-15), young people (16-24), younger working age (25-44), older working age (45-64), and three groups of older people (65+). The table shows that Stirling has an age profile that is similar to the Scottish average, at this level of detail. Table 1.2 - Population by Age Band - Stirling Council area and Scotland 2004 Stirling Age 0-4 5-11 12-15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: GROS 2005

Male No. 2,377 3,805 2,312 5,314 10,628 10,997 3,584 1,796 409

Scotland % 6% 9% 6% 13% 26% 27% 9% 4% 1%

Female No. % 2,256 5% 3,650 8% 2,253 5% 5,269 12% 12,134 27% 11,412 25% 4,201 9% 2,937 7% 1036 2%

All No. 4,633 7,455 4,565 10,583 22,762 22,409 7,785 4,733 1,445

% 5% 9% 5% 12% 26% 26% 9% 5% 2%

All No. 263,122 414,128 258,206 589,821 1,431,352 1,295,217 455,076 286,232 85,246

% 5% 8% 5% 12% 28% 26% 9% 6% 2%

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Figure 1.1 - Population by Age and Sex, Stirling Council Area 2004 2%

2%

Stirling - Male

Proportion of total population

1%

Stirling - Female Scotland

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

88

85

82

79

76

73

70

67

64

61

58

55

52

49

46

43

40

37

34

31

28

25

22

19

16

13

10

7

4

1

0% Age

Source: GROS 2005 Figure 1.1 shows that the majority of the population lies in the 16-60 age group, but with a significant dip in the 23-35 age group. This may be cause for concern as it forms a significant part of the present workforce in Stirling. Stirling’s population patterns largely follow that of Scotland but its ‘highs’ and ‘lows’ are slightly more accentuated than the national average. There is also a noticeable boost to numbers in the 18-23 age range, which is likely to reflect the Stirling University student population.

1.3

Components of Population Change 1991-2003

Four separate components are taken into account when calculating population change: births, deaths, migration (the balance of people moving in and out of the area) and other changes e.g. armed forces moving around the country. Migration is the most difficult component of population change to estimate. This is done by using anonymised data on people registered with an NHS doctor in Scotland. Table 1.3 compares the components of population change from 2003 to 2004 for Stirling and Scotland. Table 1.3 - Components of Population Change, Stirling and Scotland 2003-2004 2003 Population Plus 2003-2004 Births Minus 2003-2004 Deaths (= Natural Change) Plus 2003-2004 Net Migration* Plus 2003-2004 Other Changes 2004 Population Change 2003-2004 (Nos.) Change 2003-2004 % Source: GROS 2005

Stirling 86,370 896 942 -46 33 13 86,370 0 0

*Includes changes in number of armed forces stationed in Scotland and movements to/from prison

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Scotland 5,057,400 53,576 57,588 -4,012 26,004 -992 5,078,400 21,000 0.4

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1.4

Stirling by Numbers

Population Trends 1991 - 2004

The figures below show that the population of the Stirling Council area has increased by 5,440 (almost 7%) over the last 12 years. Note that the population did not actually fall between 2001-02; previous population estimates had overestimated the population of Scotland by some 50,000. This overestimate was largely due to errors in previous migration estimates in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2002 mid-year estimates were adjusted to ensure that migration overestimates did not continue.

Table 1.4 - Change in Population Stirling Council Area 1991-2004

1.5

87000 86000 85000 84000 83000 82000 81000

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

80000 1994

0.15 0.47 0.68 0.54 0.78 1.19 0.75 0.91 0.83 0.05 -0.06 0.26 0 6.7%

1993

120 380 550 440 640 990 630 770 710 40 -50 220 0 5,440

1992

1991 80,930 1992 81,050 1993 81,430 1994 81,980 1995 82,420 1996 83,060 1997 84,050 1998 84,680 1999 85,450 2000 86,160 2001 86,200 2002 86,150 2003 86,370 2004 86,370 Total Change 1991 - 2004 Source: GRO(S) 2005

Change Nos. %

1991

Population

Population

Year

Figure 1.2 - Change in Population Stirling Council Area 1991-2004

Year

Urban and Rural Stirling

The Stirling Council area is characterised by its relatively sparse population, with an overall population density of 39 persons per square kilometre, compared with the Scottish figure of 65. Stirling’s population is 1.7% of the Scottish total, whilst its area accounts for 2.8% of Scotland’s total land cover (see Table 1.5).

Table 1.5 - Population Density, Stirling Council Area and Scotland 2004 Population 2004 Stirling Scotland Stirling as % of Scotland Source: GROS, 2005

86,370 5,078,400 1.7%

Area (km2) 2,187 77,925 2.8%

Population Density 2004 (Persons per km2) 39 65 -

As the map on the inside back cover shows, the larger urban settlements of Stirling, Bannockburn, Bridge of Allan, Dunblane and the settlements of Cowie, Plean and Fallin are clustered in and around the City of Stirling, within a relatively small south east corner of the Council area. The area’s smaller settlements are spread across an expansive rural area from Killin and Tyndrum in the north to Killearn and Strathblane in the south west.

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Table 1.6 shows the classification used by the Scottish Executive to distinguish between urban, rural and remote areas and the proportions that relate to Stirling and Scotland. Over 60% of the population live in urban areas or accessible small towns. One third of Stirling Council’s population is Accessible Rural and one in 20 of the population live in an area classified as Remote Rural. Table 1.6 – Scottish Executive Urban-Rural Classification – proportions. Classification 1. Large Urban Areas 2. Other Urban Areas 3. Accessible Small Towns

Description Settlements of over 125,000 people

Settlements of 10,000 to 125,000 people Settlements of between 3,000 and 10,000 people and within 30 minutes drive to a settlement of 10,000 or more. 4. Remote Small Settlements of less than 3,000 people Towns and within 30 minutes drive of a settlement of 10,000 or more 5. Accessible Rural Settlements of less than 3,000 people and within 30 minutes drive of a settlement of 10,000 or more 6. Remote Rural Settlements of less than 3,000 people and with a drive time of over 30 minutes to a settlement of 10,000 or more Source: Scottish Executive, Urban Rural Classification 2003-2004

1.6

Proportion of Population Stirling Council Scotland -

39.0%

52.3%

29.1%

9.2%

10.4%

-

2.8%

33.4%

13.1%

5.1%

5.7%

Settlement and Ward Populations

Stirling Council produces population estimates for each of its settlements (towns and villages) and wards. The previous year’s figures are rolled on to the next year by adding the population from new housebuilding over the previous twelve months, and ensuring the total of all settlements or ward populations equals the GROS mid-year estimate (currently 86,370 for Stirling). The settlement and ward populations for 2003 are outlined in Table 1.7 and Table 1.8. By far the largest settlement in the area is Stirling, with 31,514 residents, followed by Dunblane, Bannockburn and Bridge of Allan. The City of Stirling has an estimated population of just over 41,000 and includes the settlements of Stirling, Bannockburn, Cambusbarron and Cambuskenneth.

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Stirling by Numbers

Table 1.7 - Population by Settlement, Stirling Council Area 2003 Settlement

Population Settlement Aberfoyle 710 Gargunnock Arnprior 55 Gartmore Ashfield 110 Inversnaid Balfron 1,626 Killearn Balmaha 62 Killin Balquhidder 41 Kilmahog Bannockburn 6,976 Kinbuck Blairlogie 58 Kinlochard Bridge of Allan 5,225 Kippen Brig O' Turk 54 Lochearnhead Buchanan Castle 207 Milton of Buchanan Buchlyvie 498 Plean Callander 3,141 Port of Menteith Cambusbarron 1,834 Stirling Cambuskenneth 220 Strathblane (inc. Blanefield) Cowie 2,381 Strathyre Crianlarich 123 Stronachlachar Croftamie 206 Thornhill Deanston 458 Throsk Doune 1,141 Tyndrum Drymen 694 Dunblane 8,311 Rural Remainder Fallin 2,655 City of Stirling Fintry 447 Stirling Council Area Source: Calculated from 2001 Census, GROS Mid-year Household Estimates and Stirling Council housebuilding completion data.

Population 782 288 28 1,798 651 35 101 146 943 238 85 1,765 54 31,514 1,987 169 30 471 127 194 7,728 41,108 86,370

Populations by Ward and Community Council are described in Table 1.8 and Table 1.9, as well as population density for the latter. Boundaries for these areas are shown on the inside front cover of this publication. Table 1.8 - Population by Electoral Ward, Stirling Council Area 2001 Ward Population Argyll 3,942 Bannockburn East 3,915 Bannockburn West 4,148 Blane Valley 4,372 Borestone 3,430 Bridge of Allan 3,790 Broomridge 3,762 Campsies 3,872 Dunblane East 4,476 Dunblane West 4,107 Highland 3,769 Source: 2001 Census, GROS

Ward Kings Park and Cambusbarron Logie Polmaise Raploch Sauchenford Strathendrick Teith Torbrex Town Centre Trossachs Wallace

Population 3,773 3,062 4,481 3,822 4,401 4,058 3,430 3,800 3,619 4,008 4,175

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Table 1.9 - Population by Community Council, Stirling Council Area 2001 Community Council

Area (km2)

Arnprior Balfron Balquhidder Bannockburn Borestone Bridge of Allan Broomridge Buchanan Buchlyvie Callander Cambusbarron Cambuskenneth Carron Valley Causewayhead Cornton Cowie Craigs Croftamie

18.8 21.4 269.4 8.0 1.1 17.3 1.3 101.0 31.8 131.6 33.5 2.3 65.0 1.6 1.2 9.3 2.2 24.9

Community Council

Area (km2)

Popn.

Gargunnock Gartmore Killearn Killin Kilmadock King's Park Kippen Logie Mercat Cross Plean Polmaise Port of Menteith Raploch Riverside Strathard Strathblane Strathfillan Thornhill and Blairdrummond Torbrex Trossachs

40.0 40.6 48.3 276.7 68.3 1.9 21.7 20.5 0.8 15.5 17.3 62.1 4.1 1.1 248.7 44.0 244.5 54.5

943 522 2,298 941 1,997 2,198 1,149 236 3,478 1,973 3,154 423 3,208 1,564 1,352 2,396 396 1,104

24 13 48 3 29 1,163 53 12 4,121 128 182 7 788 1,441 5 54 2 20

Drymen 28.4 946 33 0.6 Dunblane 86.8 8,803 101 116.5 Fintry 70.4 695 10 Source: Stirling Council Research Team using 2001 Census data from GROS

1,577 168

2,464 1

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Popn. Popn. Density (Persons/ km2) 184 10 1,779 83 760 3 7,352 920 3,871 3,615 6,595 380 5,772 4,577 630 6 727 23 3,383 26 3,244 97 249 109 291 4 2,595 1,645 2,251 1,838 2,479 268 2,143 987 387 16

Popn. Density (Persons / km2)

Registration Statistics: Births and Deaths by Local Area

Table 1.10 outlines information collected by Stirling Council area’s Registrar of Births, Deaths and Marriages from 1999-2003, across the six local Registrars. The table shows that on average there are 33 more deaths than births each year. However the last two years has seen births outnumber deaths by a total of 103, helping to increase Stirling’s population. Table 1.10 - Births and Deaths by Registrar, Stirling Council 1999-2003 Births 1999-2003 Registrar 1999 2000 2001 2002 Aberfoyle 10 18 16 14 Balfron 73 110 70 67 Callander 23 26 20 27 Dunblane 59 57 42 67 Killin 19 11 11 15 Stirling 801 654 809 791 985 876 968 981 Total Source: Stirling Council Corporate Services 2004

10

2003 23 78 34 72 11 786

1999 18 69 67 86 21 858

Deaths 1999-2003 2000 2001 2002 15 9 13 131 113 92 72 52 52 58 70 59 12 18 19 713 716 707 978 942

2003 15 82 52 72 16 703 940

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1.8

Stirling by Numbers

Diversity

Table 1.11 and Table 1.12 show the diversity of religion and ethnic origin in the Stirling Council area, as reported by people in the 2001 Census.

Table 1.11 – Self-reported Religion in Stirling and Scotland Religion Church of Scotland Roman Catholic Other Christian Buddhist Hindu Jewish Muslim Sikh Another Religion No Religion Not Answered Source: 2001 Census, GROS

Stirling % 45.0 12.8 7.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.8 27.9 4.9

Scotland % 42.4 15.9 6.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.6 27.5 5.5

Stirling % 84.7 10.8 1.0 2.1 0.2 0.3