Teacher Supply and Demand Report
Teacher Supply and Demand Report
Prepared by: Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group
2007
TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN VICTORIA TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Executive summary School population ........................................................................................................ 1 DEMAND....................................................................................................................2 Gender ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Age groups ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Age profile by selected subjects ...................................................................................................... 6 Fixed term agreement teachers........................................................................................................ 8 Time fraction...................................................................................................................................... 9 Sick leave ............................................................................................................................................ 9 Long service leave ........................................................................................................................... 10 Leave without pay ........................................................................................................................... 10 Workcover claims............................................................................................................................ 11 Advertised vacancies in schools .................................................................................................... 11 Difficult to fill vacancies ................................................................................................................ 15 Geographical distribution of difficult to fill vacancies............................................................... 16 Difficult to fill casual relief teacher positions.............................................................................. 17 Background of casual relief teachers ............................................................................................ 18 New teaching service employments ............................................................................................. 19 Graduate Recruitment Program employments ........................................................................... 19 Teaching Scholarships .................................................................................................................... 20 Attrition rates ................................................................................................................................... 22 Projected student enrolments........................................................................................................ 22 Projected teacher numbers............................................................................................................. 24 SUPPLY .....................................................................................................................26 Applications and Offers for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses....................... 27 Applications, Offers and Acceptances for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses .................................................................................................................... 28 Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses .............................................. 29 Final year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses by Key Learning Area .................................................................................................................. 30 Final year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses for selected SOSE subjects........................................................................................................... 31 Average ENTER scores for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses ...................... 31 Forecast graduate supply................................................................................................................ 32 Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses by gender............................ 33 Graduate destinations from Victorian teacher education programs........................................ 34 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 35 Data tables......................................................................................................................................i–xi
Teacher Supply and Demand
INTRODUCTION This is the sixth annual teacher supply and demand report for Victoria prepared on behalf of the Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group. The report focuses on: ¾ the composition of the Government and Catholic teaching service and how it has altered in recent years in terms of gender and age and attrition; ¾ the outlook for the teaching service over the next four years; ¾ the historic trends in pre-service teacher education and the outlook for the next four years. In preparing the report data was collated from the Catholic Education Commission (CEC), Victorian Institute of Teaching (VIT), Victorian Tertiary Admissions Centre (VTAC) and the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD). Independent sector (the non Catholic non-government sector) data has been sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). As at 2006 86.6 per cent of students attended and 83.5 per cent of teaching service staff were employed in the Government and Catholic sectors. As such, the information contained in this report covers the majority of students and teaching service staff in Victoria. In projecting student numbers for the Independent sector historic trends in student enrolments have been extrapolated forward. In projecting teachers required in Victorian schools for the period 2007–11 a similar model is used for the non-government sector (both Catholic and Independent) as is used for the Government sector. These figures are then adjusted on the basis of the various student teacher ratios provided in the ABS publication Schools, Australia. In commissioning this report the Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group considered that extrapolation of the data that was available in both the Government and Catholic sectors would provide adequate representation of teacher supply and demand across Victoria.
Teacher Supply and Demand
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ¾
There were 831,627 students enrolled in Victorian schools in 2006, of which 537,646 (64.6%) were in Government schools, 182,404 (21.9%) in Catholic schools and 111,577 (13.4%) in other Independent schools.
¾
There were 60,853 (FTE) teachers in Victoria in 2006, of which 38,608 (63.4%) were in Government schools, 12,225 (20.1%) in Catholic schools and 10,020 (16.5%) in other Independent schools.
¾
Both student enrolments and teacher numbers in Victoria grew over the ten years from 1996 to 2006.
¾
Female teachers in Government schools in 2007 make up 72.3 per cent of the Teacher class and, while the proportion of females in the Principal class (50.9%) is significantly lower, it is growing rapidly.
¾
The age profile of the teaching workforce continues to increase with the single biggest age group (22.8%) of Government sector teaching service staff aged 50–54 years in 2007. Catholic sector teaching service staff are also ageing, but with a much less pronounced spike (17.4%) in the younger 45–49 year age group.
¾
Fixed term agreement staff, while below the 1999 peak, continue to represent around 17 per cent of the Government teaching service workforce and have been trending higher.
¾
Part time work is a significant and growing factor in the Victorian teaching service. Around one fifth of Government teaching service staff are part time employees, while almost one third of the Catholic teaching service works part time.
¾
The attrition rate for teaching service staff in the Government sector was at 4.8 per cent in 2006 and is forecast to continue rising.
¾
Overall, both primary and secondary student enrolments in Victorian schools are forecast to rise over the next two years before falling back to below 2008 levels by 2012.
¾
New teaching staff requirements in Victorian schools are forecast to average 3,290 teachers each year over the next five years with secondary teachers in greater demand.
¾
Nearly two thirds of all applicants for pre-service teacher education courses in Victoria are offered a place in the course.
¾
There is a trend away from undergraduate pre-service teacher education courses.
¾
The supply of graduate teachers from Victorian pre-service teacher education courses is projected to rise to 3,630 in 2011, with most of the increase in Primary- and Primary/Secondary-trained teachers.
BACKGROUND SCHOOL POPULATION ¾
Student enrolments and teacher numbers in Victoria have increased over the ten years to 2006. FIGURE 1.1: TOTAL SCHOOL STUDENTS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA, 1996–2006 FTE of students
1,000,000
Government
Catholic
Indpendent
750,000
500,000
250,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Victoria schools have grown by 7.0 per cent since 1996 as shown in Figure 1.1. Student enrolments in the Government and Catholic sectors have risen slightly (3.8% and 3.6% respectively) while the Independent sector rose by 33.9 per cent. The Government sector accounts for just under two thirds (64.6%) of the total student population in Victoria. FIGURE 1.2: TOTAL TEACHERS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA, 1996–2006 75,000
FTE of teachers Government
Catholic
Independent
60,000
45,000
30,000
15,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ABS
Total teachers employed in Victorian schools have increased 18.5 per cent since 1996 and increased in all sectors. Teachers employed in the Government sector were 13.4 per cent higher in 2006 than in 1996. Teachers employed in the Catholic sector were 17.2 per cent higher and Independent sector teacher numbers were 46.0 per cent higher in 2006 than in 1996.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
1
DEMAND The following section provides information relating to teacher demand. Data on the gender of teachers and age of the teaching workforce is analysed for all sectors. More detailed analyses are provided for the Government sector in regard to part time and fixed term employment, various forms of leave, recruitment difficulties and recruitment initiatives such as the Graduate Recruitment program and Teaching Scholarships. These are contrasted with projected teacher attrition (for the Government sector only) and projected student enrolments and projected teacher numbers for both the Government and non Government sectors to present a comprehensive picture of demand related issues in Victorian schools.
Summary Whilst overall student numbers across all sectors have increased 7.0 per cent since 1996 teacher numbers have increased by 18.5 per cent over this same period. Projections indicate that the ageing of the current Government teaching workforce will continue over the next 5 years, such that retirements as a proportion of the teaching workforce will rise. This will create further demand for teachers in particular subject areas. Student enrolments in secondary schools are forecast to fall slightly. This will lessen the demand for secondary teachers. Increased demand for teachers is currently being felt in specific subject and geographic areas. Many of these subjects reflect a national trend of shortage. In Government schools the specific subject areas are: Special Education, Mathematics, Science, Physics, Technology including IT, Physical Education and LOTE (especially Italian, French, Indonesian, German and Japanese). Parts of the state that experience sustained difficulties in recruiting teachers to Government schools are Victoria’s far west and north and in the growth corridors on Melbourne’s urban fringe. In 2007 almost half of all Government secondary schools and half of all Government primary/secondary schools reported difficulties recruiting teaching service staff, but only 6.3 per cent of Government primary schools. Almost one third (29.9%) of Government primary schools and almost half (48.1%) of Government secondary schools reported difficulty in obtaining casual relief teachers. The proportion of Government schools reporting teacher recruitment difficulties and difficulty obtaining casual relief staff had been trending down, but has risen over the last two years. Over the five years to 2011 approximately 3,290 new teachers are forecast to be required each year across all Victorian schools.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
2
GENDER ¾
Female teachers comprise the majority of teachers in Victoria. While the proportion of females in the Principal class in Government schools is significantly lower, it is growing rapidly. FIGURE 2.1: PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1996–2006
71.0
Per cent
69.0
67.0 Government
Catholic
Independent
65.0
63.0
61.0
59.0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ABS
Female teachers account for nearly 70 per cent of the total teaching service in the Government sector in 2006. Similarly for the Catholic sector females represent 70 per cent of teaching staff and over 63 per cent in the Independent sector. The proportion of female teaching service staff in the Government sector has increased by around 6 percentage points from 1996 to 2006 and 4 percentage points for the Independent sector, while the proportion of female teaching service staff in the Catholic sector has remained relatively stable. FIGURE 2.2: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1997–2007 80.0
Per cent Teacher class
Leading Teacher *
Principal class
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
While the proportion of females as Leading Teachers in the Government sector has been growing the increase is significantly faster in the Principal class, increasing by almost 2 percentage points per year, but from a much lower base. By comparison the proportion of females as Leading Teachers is growing at less than half that rate. Overall the Teacher class has the highest proportion of females at 72.3 per cent followed by Leading Teachers with 63.8 per cent. The proportion of females in the Principal class has increased rapidly over the last decade and was 50.9 per cent at 2007. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
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AGE GROUPS ¾
The age profile of the teaching workforce continues to increase. FIGURE 3.1: TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR AND AGE GROUP, 2007 Per cent in age cohort
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0 Government 0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
Catholic
40-44
Independent
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: VIT
The comparison between age profiles of teaching service staff in the Government, Catholic and Independent sectors highlights the ageing workforce in the Government sector. Nearly one quarter of Government teaching service staff are in the 50–54 year cohort, while the age distribution of the workforce is more even in the other sectors. FIGURE 3.2: TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SEX AND AGE GROUP, 2007 25.0
Per cent in age cohort
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0 Males - Catholic & Independent Males Govt 0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Females - Catholic & Independent Females Govt 45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: VIT
When comparing the age and gender profiles of teachers in the Independent and Catholic sectors with teachers in the Government sector there are significantly more teachers in the Government sector in the 45–59 year age groups and significantly fewer in the 30–44 year age groups. This is consistent for both male and female teachers. The difference between the sectors is largest in the 50–54 age groups. The lower proportion of staff in the 30–44 year age groups in the Government sector is primarily due to the lack of recruitment during the 1990s.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
4
AGE GROUPS (cont.) FIGURE 3.3: GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY AGE GROUP, 1997, 2002 & 2007 Per cent in age cohort 25.0 1997
2002
2007
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD
Over the 10 years to 2007 the largest single age group amongst Government teaching service staff has shifted from 40–44 years to 50–54 years. The 50–54 year age group now accounts for nearly one quarter (22.8%) of the total teaching service workforce compared with the 40–44 year age group a decade ago which represented just over one quarter (25.9%) of the workforce. This reflects a broader trend which has seen the proportion of teaching service staff aged 45 years and over increase from 41.3 per cent in 1997 to 53.4 per cent in 2002 and 53.6 per cent in 2007. In comparison, the age groups 30 to 39 years accounted for less than one fifth (17.6%) of the teaching workforce in 2007. FIGURE 3.4: CATHOLIC TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY AGE GROUP, 1997, 2002 & 2007 20.0
Per cent in age cohort
15.0
10.0
5.0 1997 0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
2002
40-44
2007
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: CEC
In the Catholic sector the profile of teaching service staff by age cohort is younger and more evenly distributed than in the Government sector. In the Catholic sector the 45–49 age group has been the largest single group over the last five years and represents only 17.4 per cent of the total in 2007, followed by the 50–54 year group at 14.9 per cent. The change in the Catholic sector teaching staff profile over the last five years is similar to the Government sector profile but less pronounced. Catholic teaching service staff aged 45 years and over have increased from 34.4 per cent of the total in 1997 to 41.4 per cent in 2002 and 46.5 per cent in 2007. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
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AGE GROUPS (cont.) FIGURE 3.5: GOVERNMENT PRINCIPAL CLASS STAFF BY AGE GROUP, 1997, 2002 & 2007 50.0
Per cent in age cohort
40.0 1997
2002
2007
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD
It is to be expected that the age profile of principal class members in the Government sector is more narrowly focussed than that of the teaching workforce. The proportion of principal class members aged 50 years and over has increased from 40.8 per cent in 1997 to 67.5 per cent in 2007. AGE PROFILE BY SELECTED SUBJECTS ¾
The age profile of teaching service staff in selected subjects highlights the ageing teacher workforce in the Government sector and is more apparent in some subjects than others. FIGURE 4.1: GOVERNMENT MATHEMATICS TEACHERS IN SURVEY* BY AGE GROUP, 1995 & 2006
30.0
Per cent in age cohort
25.0 1995
2006
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
The age profiles of Mathematics teachers in a sample survey of Government secondary schools shows a shift in the peak age group from 40–44 years in 1995 to 50–54 years in 2006. The shift in the age structure shows an increase in the proportion of surveyed Mathematics teachers in the 50–54 year age group from 9.7 per cent in 1995 to 24.1 per cent in 2006. From 1995 to 2006 the proportion of Mathematics teachers aged 45 years and over has grown from about one third to well over half. Note: The data on individual subjects taught in Government schools is derived from a biennial survey of approximately one third of Government secondary schools Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
6
AGE PROFILE BY SELECTED SUBJECTS (cont.) FIGURE 4.2: GOVERNMENT SCIENCE TEACHERS IN SURVEY BY AGE GROUP, 1995 & 2006 30.0
Per cent in age cohort
25.0 1995
2006
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
The age profile of Science teachers in a sample survey of Government Secondary schools has undergone two notable changes from 1995 to 2006 – the increases in both older (50+) and younger (under 30) teachers with a consequent ‘hollowing out’ of the 30–44 year age groups. The largest single group has shifted from the 40–44 year cohort to both the 45–49 and the 50–54 year cohorts, with the 45–49 year cohort almost unchanged since 1995.
FIGURE 4.3: GOVERNMENT PHYSICAL EDUCATION TEACHERS IN SURVEY BY AGE GROUP, 1995 & 2006 30.0
Per cent in age cohort
25.0 1995
2006
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
In contrast to the age profiles of Mathematics and Science teachers, the largest group of Physical Education teachers in a sample survey of Government Secondary schools, as shown in Figure 4.3, is the 25–29 year age group in 2006. In terms of the change from 1995 to 2006 there has been a pronounced shift away from the 30–44 year age groups to both the younger (under 25–29) and the older (45–49) year age groups. In contrast to Maths and Science teachers the age groups 50+ have shown little change from 1995 to 2006.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
7
AGE PROFILE BY SELECTED SUBJECTS (cont.) FIGURE 4.4: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF AGED 50 YEARS AND OVER IN SURVEY, 2002–06 Per cent over 50 years of age
60.0
2002
2004
2006
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0 Metal technology
Electronics
Wood technology
Clothing and Tech studies Textiles General
Home LOTE French Accounting Food tech Mathematics economics and Catering VCE
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
Figure 4.4 shows some specific subjects where the percentage of Government teaching service staff aged 50 years or over is highest. Of these ten subjects seven are from the Technology KLA. Two of the subjects – Metal technology and Electronics – have more than half of teachers aged 50 years and over. Eight of the 10 subjects detailed above have seen an increase in the proportion of staff aged 50 years and over since 2002. FIXED TERM AGREEMENT TEACHERS ¾
Teaching staff on fixed term agreements, while still below the 1999 peak, represent around 17 per cent of the Government teaching service workforce. FIGURE 5: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON FIXED TERM AGREEMENTS, 1997–2007
20.0
Per cent
Fixed Term
4 quarter moving average
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
The proportion of Government teaching service staff on fixed term agreements rose steadily from 1997 to 1999, peaking at nearly one fifth (19.6%) of all teaching staff in September 1999 before dropping back. At June 2007 the proportion of teaching service staff on fixed term agreements has dropped to around 18.5 per cent. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
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TIME FRACTION ¾
Part time work continues to grow in the teaching service.
FIGURE 6: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT AND CATHOLIC TEACHING SERVICE STAFF WORKING PART TIME, 1997–2007 30.0
Per cent
Government
Catholic
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD, CEC
The trend towards part time work for teaching staff in the Government and Catholic sectors has continued to increase over the decade. The proportion of part time teachers has increased from 14.5 per cent in 1997 to 20.4 per cent in 2007 for the Government sector and from 22.2 per cent in 1997 to 28.4 per cent in 2007 in the Catholic sector. SICK LEAVE FIGURE 7: RATE OF SICK AND CARER'S LEAVE TAKEN BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1996–2006 9,000
Days per 1,000 staff
8,000
7,000 Sick leave with a certificate
Sick leave w/o a certificate
Carer's leave
2001
2004
6,000
5,000
4,000 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
Source: DEECD
Over the 10 year period 1996 to 2006 the rate of sick and carer’s leave taken by Government teaching service staff has risen, despite a slight decrease from 2004 to 2005. The rate of certificated sick leave in 2006 was the highest in the series and 1.7 per cent higher than in 1996. Uncertificated sick leave in 2006 was similar to the 1996 rate. Carer’s leave has continued to grow since its introduction in 1999.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
9
LONG SERVICE LEAVE FIGURE 8: LONG SERVICE LEAVE USAGE BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1996–2006 7,500
FTE of Teaching Service Staff taking leave Principal
Teacher
5,000
2,500
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: DEECD
The use of Long Service leave by both principal class and teaching staff in Government schools has risen fairly steadily over the period 1996 to 2006. The full time equivalent of teaching service staff taking long service leave has more than doubled from 2,913.4 FTE in 1996 to 7,025.7 FTE in 2006, while the full time equivalent of principal class taking long service leave has risen from 319.0 FTE in 1996 to 901.8 FTE in 2006. LEAVE WITHOUT PAY ¾
Over the last ten years the number of Government teaching service staff on leave without pay has fallen. FIGURE 9: GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON LEAVE WITHOUT PAY (LWOP), 1997–2007
5,000
FTE of Teachers Family Leave
Total LWOP
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
From 1997 to 2007 the full time equivalent of Government teaching service staff on leave without pay has fallen by around 9.9 per cent. The major contributor to this fall has been the decline of teaching service staff on family leave. However, since 2001 the number of teaching service staff on leave without pay has started to increase (increasing 19.9 per cent from 2001 to 2007) due to teaching service staff on family leave increasing. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
10
WORKCOVER CLAIMS ¾
Workcover claims while still below the 2003 peak comprise 14.9 claims per thousand teaching service staff.
FIGURE 10: STANDARD WORKCOVER CLAIMS BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1997–2007 20
Number of Claims per 1,000 staff
16
12
8
4
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
The rate of standard workcover claims rose from 2006 to 2007, but is significantly lower in 2007 than the peak in 2003. The 14.9 claims per thousand teaching service staff in 2007 is 3.2 per cent lower than the average over the period 1997 to 2007. ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS The process of advertising vacancies data changed significantly from 2004 to 2005 with the introduction of Recruitment Online. As such the method of calculating vacancies has changed so that direct comparison of the 2005–07 data with previous years is not entirely reliable. FIGURE 11.1: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2000–04 7,000
Number of vacanices Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
6,000
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000
1,000 0 Source: DEECD
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Advertised vacancies in Government schools fell from 10,306 in 2000 to 8,678 in 2004 or a drop of 15.8 per cent. Vacancies for primary schools fell by 33.3 per cent from 2000 to 2004 while vacancies in Primary/Secondary school increased by 17.3 per cent and vacancies in secondary schools rose by 10.5 per cent. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
11
ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS (cont.) FIGURE 11.2: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2005–07 8,000
Number of vacanices Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2005
Source: DEECD
2006
2007
Since the introduction of Recruitment Online in 2005, the number of vacancies has increased from 12,514 in 2005 to 14,028 in 2007. Primary schools were the only school type to show a fall in vacancies from 2005 to 2007 by 7.9 per cent, while all other school types experienced an increase in the number of vacancies over this period, with Primary/Secondary school vacancies increasing by 38.5 per cent. FIGURE 11.3: ADVERTISED PRIMARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2000–04 5,000
Number of vacancies Ongoing
Fixed term
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: DEECD
Advertised primary vacancies in Government schools (regardless of school type) were dominated by fixed term positions. Over four fifths (82.7 per cent) of all primary vacancies in 2004 were fixed term positions. This is higher than the proportion in 2000 when 74.2 per cent of advertised primary vacancies were fixed term positions. Both fixed term and ongoing primary vacancies in Government schools fell from 2003 to 2004. Note: Figures 11.3 and 11.4 contain data about vacancies by level not school type, ie a Primary/Secondary school may have both Primary and Secondary vacancies some of which will appear in Figures 11.3 and some in 11.4. The subsequent data in Figures 11.5 and 11.6 is for all vacancies in a particular school type and is not directly comparable.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
12
ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS (cont.) FIGURE 11.4: ADVERTISED SECONDARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2000–04 4,000
Number of vacanices Ongoing
Fixed term
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Source: DEECD
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
For advertised secondary vacancies in Government schools the picture is different. The proportion of ongoing secondary vacancies in 2004 is slightly lower than in 2000. Ongoing vacancies accounted for 31.7 per cent of total secondary vacancies in 2000 and have fallen to 28.1 per cent in 2004. Fixed term secondary vacancies, however, increased by 16.5 per cent from 2000 to 2004 and by 71.4 per cent from 2004 to 2005. FIGURE 11.5: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2005–07 6,000
Number of vacanices Primary (Fixed term) Secondary (Fixed term)
Primary (Ongoing) Secondary (Ongoing)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Source: DEECD
2005
2006
2007
From 2005 to 2007 there has been a decline in advertised vacancies in Government primary schools of 7.9 per cent with a 29.2 per cent increase in ongoing vacancies offset by a fall of 12.8 per cent in fixed term positions. For secondary schools there was an overall increase of almost one quarter (23.8 per cent) in advertised vacancies with a slight rise in fixed term vacancies (3.9 per cent) and a near doubling (92.2 per cent) of ongoing positions. As the Recruitment Online system was only introduced in early 2005 there may be some inconsistency between the 2005 and later data sets.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
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ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS (cont.) FIGURE 11.6: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT PRI/SEC AND SPECIAL SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2005–07 Number of vacanices
800
Pri/Sec (Fixed term)
Pri/Sec (Ongoing)
Special (Fixed term)
Special (Ongoing)
600
400
200
0 Source: DEECD
2005
2006
2007
For advertised vacancies in Government Primary/Secondary schools there has been a shift towards ongoing positions from 2005 to 2007, while fixed term positions have remained relatively constant. However, most of the increases in vacancies in Special schools have been for fixed term positions.
FIGURE 11.7: ADVERTISED SECONDARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 2007 750
Number of vacancies
Ongoing
Fixed Term
600
450
300
150
0 The Arts
English
Health & PE
LOTE
Mathematics
Science
SOSE
Technology
Source: DEECD
Specialist Remedial
Special
Of secondary school vacancies, vacancies in the English KLA comprise the largest single group advertised with 14.9 per cent of the total, followed by Studies of Society and Environment (SOSE), The Arts, Mathematics and Science. Across all KLAs vacancies are more likely to be fixed term. For ongoing vacancies the Mathematics and Science KLAs had the largest numbers, while the English, The Arts and SOSE KLAs all had large number of fixed term vacancies. The Technology KLA was almost equally divided between ongoing and fixed term vacancies. Note: where multiple KLA competency were mentioned they were counted once for each KLA mentioned
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
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DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES * ¾
Overall, difficult to fill vacancies in Government schools fell from 2001 to 2005 before rising slightly in 2006 and 2007.
FIGURE 12.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES BY SCHOOL TYPE , 2001–07 60.0
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD
The percentage of schools reporting difficulties has fallen from 29.4 per cent in 2001 down to 16.7 per cent in 2007, despite a slight rise from 2005 to 2007. Almost half of all Government secondary schools and half of all Government primary/secondary schools reported difficulties recruiting teaching service staff in 2007, but only 6.3 per cent of Government Primary schools reported difficulties in filling vacancies in 2007. More than 40 per cent of Special schools reported difficulties in filling vacancies in 2007. * These results are based on the annual Teacher Recruitment (Difficulties) census conducted in all Government schools each February. Definition of Difficult to fill vacancies in Appendix p. v
40.0
Per cent
FIGURE 12.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2001–07
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD
Difficult to fill vacancies as a whole fell from 19.0 per cent in 2001 down to 8.3 per cent of vacancies in 2005 with a small increase to 8.9 per cent in 2006 and remaining stable at 8.8 per cent in 2007. Figure 12.2 shows a markedly lower level of difficult to fill teaching vacancies (3.2 per cent) in Government Primary schools for 2007. A total of 12.4 per cent of vacancies in Government Secondary, 17.3 per cent of vacancies in Government Primary/Secondary schools and 20.7 per cent of vacancies in Special schools were difficult to fill in 2007. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
15
DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES (cont.) FIGURE 12.3: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 2001–07 200
FTE of teachers 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
150
100
50
0 The Arts
English
Source: DEECD
Health & Phys Ed
LOTE
Mathematics
Science
SOSE
Technology
The Key Learning Areas (KLAs) of Mathematics, Science and Technology have some of the highest number of difficult to fill vacancies in recent years. Until recently the LOTE KLA also had some of the highest number of difficult to fill vacancies, but has declined as LOTE leads the list of subjects schools can no longer provide due to lack of qualified teachers. Figure 12.3 shows that the highest number of difficult to fill vacancies was for the Mathematics KLA in 2007. GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES ¾
LGAs in the state’s north and west experience more difficulty in filling vacancies. MAP 1: LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS WHERE GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ARE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES (AS A PER CENT OF TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON PAY), 2005–07
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
16
MAP 2: LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS WHERE GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS ARE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO FILL MATHEMATICS VACANCIES (MATHEMATICS VACANCIES PER 100 SECONDARY TEACHERS), 2005–07
DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS * ¾
60.0
Difficult to fill casual relief teacher vacancies in Government schools fell from 2001 to 2005 before rising over the last two years. FIGURE 13.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2001–07
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD CRT Survey
The proportion of schools reporting Difficult to Fill Casual Relief teacher positions decreased slightly from 43.8 per cent in 2001 to 34.2 per cent in 2007, but has risen in the last three years. Figure 13.1 shows that in 2007 Primary/Secondary, Secondary and Special schools were more likely to encounter difficulties in filling casual relief positions in Government schools than other school types. * These results are based on the annual Casual Relief Teacher (CRT) census conducted in all Government schools each August. Definition of CRT recruitment difficulty in Appendix p. vii Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
17
DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS (cont.)
50.0
FIGURE 13.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2001–07
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD CRT Survey
Compared with 2001 all school types except Special (which remained almost unchanged) have shown a significant decrease in the proportion of difficult to fill CRT positions. However, since 2005 all Government school types have experienced more difficulty in filling Casual Relief Teacher positions. Figure 13.2 shows that one third of Special school Casual Relief Teacher (CRT) positions in 2007 were difficult to fill. Primary schools have the lowest rate of difficult to fill CRT positions of all school types. BACKGROUND OF CASUAL RELIEF TEACHERS
40.0
FIGURE 13.3: BACKGROUND OF CASUAL RELIEF TEACHERS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS, 2001–07
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Retired Teacher
Source: DEECD CRT Survey
Teacher who resigned from permanent teaching/ Prefers CRT work
P/T teacher from school
Leave (Family/LWOP)
Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc.
Other
Figure 13.3 shows that in 2007 the teaching background of more than one quarter of Casual Relief Teachers employed in Government schools was ‘Teachers who resigned from permanent teaching/Prefer CRT work’, and a further quarter were ‘Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc.’. In addition, ‘Retired teachers’ comprised over a fifth of total Casual Relief Teachers and teachers on ‘leave’ almost one tenth.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
18
NEW TEACHING SERVICE EMPLOYMENTS * FIGURE 14: NEW TEACHING SERVICE STAFF EMPLOYED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ON THE BASE SUBDIVISION, 1998–2007 FTE of teachers
3,000
Per cent of total new employees
New Teaching Service Staff on base subdivision (LHS)
100.0
% of total new employments (RHS) 2,400
80.0
1,800
60.0
1,200
40.0
600
20.0
0.0
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
New teaching staff employed on the base subdivision for that year is used as a measure of the number of graduate teaching service staff employed in Government schools. Graduate teaching service staff numbers have almost doubled since 1998, increasing by 1,289.2 FTE. Since 2003 Graduates have comprised about four fifths of total new teaching service staff employments. * New teaching service staff are defined as those who have never worked for the Department as a teacher (excluding casual relief teaching)
GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM EMPLOYMENTS ¾ The appointment of teachers under the Graduate Recruitment Program has been growing strongly for the last four years. FIGURE 15.1 GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS TO GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (FTE), 2003–08 1,400
Full time equivalent
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 *
Source: DEECD
Appointments under the Graduate Recruitment Program to Victorian Government schools fell slightly from 2003 to 2004 but have subsequently increased in each year to surpass the previous high of 1,269.8 FTE in 2007 to peak at 1,367.5 FTE in 2008. * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
19
EMPLOYMENT OF GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTEES ¾
Almost 70 per cent of appointments under the Graduate Recruitment program for 2008 are for fixed term positions. FIGURE 15.2: GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY LENGTH OF CONTRACT, 2008 *
70.0
Per cent
60.0 50.0 Metropolitan
Non-metropolitan
40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Less than 1 year
1 year
2 years
3–5 years
6–8 years
Ongoing
Source: DEECD
Of the appointments under the Graduate Recruitment Program for Government schools in 2008 31.2 per cent were for ongoing positions. Over half of all appointments were 1 year contracts. Ongoing appointments to non-metropolitan schools under the program were less common than to metropolitan schools and 65.0 per cent of all appointments to non-metropolitan schools under the program were for 1 year or less. TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS * ¾
Since 2004/05 more than 70 per cent of new appointments to Government schools through the Teaching Scholarship program have been to non-metropolitan schools. FIGURE 16.1: PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY METROPOLITAN/NON-METROPOLITAN AREAS, 2001/02–2007/08*
100.0
Per cent Metropolitan
Non-metropolitan
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0 2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08*
Source: DEECD
Scholarship positions in Victorian Government schools have averaged around 180 since the program began in 2001/02. Of all scholarship positions in 2007/08 (to date) 78.2 per cent were for non-metropolitan schools, similar to the results from 2004/05 and 2005/06. * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008 Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
20
TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS (cont.) FIGURE 16.2: PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SEX, 2001/02–2007/08* 80.0
Per cent Males
Females
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0 2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08*
Source: DEECD
The proportion of teaching scholarships being awarded to male teachers in Government schools has risen from 31.1 per cent in 2001/02 to 48.7 per cent in 2007/08 to date. The percentage of Teaching Scholarships awarded to both males and females has been similar since 2004/05. * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008 Note: from 2004/05 onwards this data includes Career Change Scholarships
FIGURE 16.3: PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 2001/02–2007/08* 40.0
Per cent 2002/03 2005/06
2003/04 2006/07
2004/05 2007/08*
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 The Arts
English
HPE
LOTE
Mathematics
Science
SOSE
Technology
General classroom
Specialist
Source: DEECD
Since 2002/03 there has been a change in the allocation of teaching scholarships in Government schools by KLA. In 2002/03 26.6 per cent of scholarships were awarded to General Classroom teachers and 14.1 per cent to English teachers. In 2007/08 to date, 37.2 per cent of teaching scholarships went to Mathematics teachers and 26.9 per cent to Technology teachers. Scholarships to Science teachers have more than doubled from 6.0 per cent in 2002/03 to 12.8 per cent in 2007/08. The increases in the proportion of teaching scholarships awarded to Mathematics, Technology and Science teachers has been occurring since 2004/05. Note: the criterion for the awarding of teaching scholarships was significantly altered for 2004 resulting in a lower overall numbers of scholarships being awarded to much more tightly defined areas of need. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
21
ATTRITION * RATES ¾ The attrition rate for teaching service staff in the Government sector is forecast to rise, although the rate of growth is forecast to slow. FIGURE 17: ATTRITION* RATES FOR GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, ACTUAL 1995–2006, PROJECTED 2007–11
Per cent
6.0
* Attrition: ongoing teaching service staff who cease from the payroll and are not reemployed as ongoing. Staff on fixed term agreements are excluded.
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 Actual
Projected
1.0
0.0 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: DEECD
The attrition rate for Government teaching service staff has been rising fairly constantly over almost the entire period from 1995 to 2006 as shown in Figure 17 and is projected to continue rising through to 2009 before falling slightly in 2011 due to the ageing workforce. PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS ¾
Student enrolments in all Victorian schools in both primary and secondary are forecast rise over the next 2 years, peaking in 2010 before falling back to below 2008 levels by 2012. FIGURE 18.1: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS, 2008–12
460,000
FTE of students
440,000 Primary
Secondary
420,000
400,000
380,000
360,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Over the period 2008 to 2012 total school enrolments in Victoria are forecast to fall marginally by 0.2 per cent. Figure 18.1 shows little overall change forecast for Primary enrolments over the forecast period 2008 to 2011, with a slight rise from 2008–10 offset by a similar fall from 2010–12. Secondary student enrolments, however, are forecast to remain stable to 2010 and then fall by an overall 0.3 per cent to 2012.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
22
PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS (cont.) FIGURE 18.2: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS, 2008–12 320,000
FTE of students Primary
Secondary
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Government schools are forecast to fall by more than 7,000, or 1.4 per cent, over the period 2008–12. Primary enrolments are forecast to decline in Government schools from 2010 while Government Secondary enrolments are forecast to fall from 2008. As Figure 18.2 shows the overall decline in student enrolments is the result of a 2.5 per cent fall in secondary enrolments and a 0.6 per cent drop in primary enrolments over the forecast period.
FIGURE 18.3: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS, 2008–12 100,000
FTE of students
95,000 Primary Secondary 90,000
85,000
80,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Catholic schools are forecast to rise slightly over the period 2008–12, with increases in both primary and secondary enrolments. The main increase is a 1.0 per cent forecast rise in primary enrolments. Secondary enrolments are forecast to increase 0.3 per cent over the period, although there is a slight decline from 2010–12, offsetting much of the increase from 2008–10.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
23
PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS (cont.) FIGURE 18.4: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS, 2008–12 85,000
FTE of students Primary
Secondary
75,000
65,000
55,000
45,000
35,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Independent schools are forecast to increase by 4.1 per cent over the period 2008–12, in contrast to the slight increase in the Catholic sector and decline in the Government sector. Independent student enrolments are forecast to rise (1.4 per cent) in primary schools and rise considerably in secondary schools (5.7 per cent). The decline in secondary enrolments forecast for both the Government and Catholic sectors from 2010 has not been forecast for the Independent sector. PROJECTED TEACHER NUMBERS * ¾ New teaching staff requirements are forecast to rise slightly in 2008 before falling through to the end of the forecast period with secondary teachers the most in demand. FIGURE 19.1: PROJECTED NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS, 2007–11 3,600
Number of teachers
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: DEECD
Totalling the projected number of new teachers required per year and dividing by the number of projection years results in approximately 3,290 new teachers (number) being required (on average) each year, across all Victorian schools over the five years to 2011 to cover increases in student enrolments, teacher retirements and resignations, teachers taking leave and policy initiatives. * Projected at October 2007 Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
24
PROJECTED TEACHER NUMBERS (cont.)
2,200
FIGURE 19.2: PROJECTED NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY LEVEL, 2007–11
Number of teachers
Primary
Secondary
1,800
1,400
1,000 Source: DEECD
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
As Figure 19.2 illustrates the number of new primary teachers required will rise somewhat from 2007 to 2010 before falling slightly in 2011. In contrast the number of new secondary teachers required will fall steadily across the forecast period to 2011.
3,500
FIGURE 19.3: PROJECTED NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY SECTOR, 2007–11
Number of teachers
Average 2007–11: 3,290
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 2007 Source: DEECD
2008
2009 Government
2010 Non-Government
2011
Over the five years to 2011 both Government and non-government schools will see the number of new teachers increasing through to 2008 before falling back to 2011. Government schools will require a projected average of 2,080 new teachers over the five years while non-government school will require 1,210 on average.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
25
SUPPLY The following section provides information relating to teacher supply in Victoria. Data is presented on applications, offers and acceptances for pre-service teacher education courses, enrolments in those courses, ENTER score trends, forecasts of graduate supply and destinations of teaching graduates.
Summary Reduced demand for teachers during the mid 1990s has resulted in a situation where enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses have just returned to levels above the 1991 level. This is not due to a lack of applications as applications for both under- and postgraduate pre-service teacher education courses are consistently higher than offers. The trend towards enrolment in shorter postgraduate teacher education courses and away from the four-year integrated courses has resulted in an increasing number of graduates becoming available to teach in a shorter timeframe, but a lower proportion of these post-graduate students actually go on to teach in schools. Overall, graduate teacher numbers from Victorian pre-service teacher education are forecast to rise over the forecast period 2007–11, due mainly to the increase in primary and primary/secondary graduate teachers offsetting a decline in the secondary graduate teacher supply. Estimates of graduate teacher supply over the five years to 2011 indicate that approximately 3,360 teachers will be available each year to teach in schools (i.e. 80 per cent of the total number of graduating students).
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
26
APPLICATIONS AND OFFERS FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES ¾
First preference applications for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses have fallen from the 2003/04 peak, while the number of offers remains high.
FIGURE 20.1: NUMBER OF STUDENTS APPLYING FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1989/90–2006/07 7,500
Number of applicants Undergraduate 1st preference
Postgraduate
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0 1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Source: VIT, VTAC
The overall number of students applying for pre-service teacher education courses has risen slightly in 2006/07 from 2005/06. After dropping down to 2,463 in 1993/94 the number of undergraduate first preference applicants peaked at 6,420 in 2003/04 before falling back to 6,122 in 2006/07. Since the series began in 1998/99 the number of postgraduate applicants grew from 2,353 in 1998/99 to 5,729 in 2003/04 but have since fallen back to 4,045 in 2006/07. FIGURE 20.2: NUMBER OF OFFERS FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1989/90–2006/07 4,000
Number of places
3,000
2,000
Undergraduate
Postgraduate
1,000
0 1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Source: VIT, VTAC
Postgraduate offers grew rapidly from 1999/00 to 2004/05 and were at a similar level to undergraduate offers, but have fallen back over the last two years. In contrast to applications, the number of offers for undergraduate pre-service teacher education students each year trended downwards from 1994/95 to 2001/02, but has risen sharply since to be at the highest point in 2006/07 since the series began in 1989/90.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
27
APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES ¾
While applications for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses rise steadily for both under- and postgraduate students, the number of offers and acceptances has risen only for postgraduate students.
FIGURE 20.3: APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR VICTORIAN UNDERGRADUATE PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999/00–2006/07 7,500
Number of places Applications
Offers
Acceptances
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
41.2%
35.1%
25.5%
27.6%
28.3%
40.1%
41.6%
42.7%
0 1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Source: VIT, VTAC
The number of students applying for undergraduate pre-service teacher education courses has grown by almost 40 per cent from 1990/00 to 2006/07, while the number of acceptances has grown since 2001/02, despite a small decline in 2005/06. Despite the drop in applications over the last few years, the proportion of applications resulting in an acceptance in 2006/07 is higher than the 1999/00 level. In 2006/07 61.3 per cent of applications resulted in an offer and 69.7 per cent of these offers were accepted. FIGURE 20.4: APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR VICTORIAN POSTGRADUATE PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999/00–2006/07 6,000
Number of places Applications
Offers
Acceptances
4,500
3,000
1,500
41.9%
52.1%
45.2%
33.9%
34.5%
46.5%
53.0%
56.6%
0 1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Source: VIT, VTAC
The number of students applying for postgraduate pre-service teacher education courses grew from 1999/2000 to 2003/04 before falling over the last few years. The number of acceptances has almost doubled over the period 1990/00 to 2006/07. Despite the drop in applications from 2003/04 to 2006/07, the proportion of applications resulting in an acceptance is now well over half. In 2006/07 83.7 per cent of applications resulted in an offer and 67.6 per cent of these offers were accepted. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
28
ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES ¾
Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses continue to grow. FIGURE 21.1: FIRST YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1990–2007
6,000
FTE of students
Undergraduate
Postgraduate
4,500
3,000
1,500
0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The most significant change in first year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education programs has been the growth in postgraduate courses. Since 1990 postgraduate enrolments have grown from just over one quarter of total enrolments to almost half. With the rise in postgraduate enrolments, total enrolments are more than 20 per cent higher than in 1990.
FIGURE 21.2: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1997–2007
5,000
FTE of students
Undergraduate
Postgraduates
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The growth in postgraduate courses is even more noticeable in the final year pre-service teacher education enrolments. Figure 21.2 shows undergraduate enrolments grew by more than 60 per cent from 1997 to 2007, but the 2007 figure for final year postgraduate enrolments is more than two-anda-half times that of the 1997 figure.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
29
FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) ¾
Comparing final year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses in 1996 with 2007 there has been an increase in all Key Learning Areas except LOTE.
FIGURE 22.1: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 1997–2007 Number of students
700
LOTE
Mathematics
Health & Physical Education
Technology
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
FIGURE 22.2: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 1997–2007 1,200
Number of students
1,000
800
600
400
200 SOSE 0 1997
1998
1999
2000
English 2001
2002
The Arts 2003
Science 2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The growth in enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses by Key Learning Area (KLA) over the period 1997 to 2007 has been very variable. Enrolments have increased in all KLAs since 1997, with the increases ranging from about 15 per cent for LOTE to almost 300 per cent in Technology. The KLAs of Technology, LOTE, SOSE and English all experienced a fall from 2006 to 2007 while The Arts KLA remained almost unchanged. Note: the number of students by KLA is approximately twice that of student enrolments as the majority of intending teachers prepare to teach two subject areas
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
30
FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES FOR SELECTED SOSE SUBJECTS (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) FIGURE 22.3: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY SELECTED SOSE SUBJECTS, 1997–2007 600
Number of students
500
400 SOSE
History
300
200
100
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
Figure 22.3 illustrates individual subjects within the SOSE KLA. Final year enrolments in the SOSE KLA fell sharply from 2006 to 2007 due entirely to a 20.4 per cent drop in enrolments in the subject SOSE to the lowest point since 2000, while History enrolments increased by 0.5 per cent and are at the highest level since the series began.
AVERAGE ENTER SCORE FOR UNDERGRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES IN VICTORIA FIGURE 23: AVERAGE ENTER SCORE FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1998–2007 80.0
Average ENTER score Average ENTER score
Series average
76.0
72.0
68.0
64.0
60.0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT, VTAC
Average ENTER scores have increased from 66.5 in 1998 to 70.0 in 2007, although they have fallen since the peak of 76.9 in 2003. The series average is 72.9.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
31
FORECAST GRADUATE SUPPLY * ¾
The supply of Graduate teachers from Victorian pre-service education courses is forecast to fall slightly and then rise through to 2011. FIGURE 24.1: PROJECTED * GRADUATE TEACHER SUPPLY FROM VICTORIAN PRESERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 2007–11
3,700
Number of teachers Note: Calculated on the basis of 80% of total teacher graduates form Victorian preservice education courses being available to teach
3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 Source: VIT
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
FIGURE 24.2: PROJECTED * GRADUATE TEACHER SUPPLY FROM VICTORIAN PRESERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY LEVEL, 2007–11 2,400
Number of teachers Note: Calculated on the basis of 80% of total teacher graduates form Victorian pre-service education courses being available to teach
Primary & Pri/Sec
Secondary
2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Source: VIT
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Graduate teacher numbers from Victorian pre-service teacher education courses are forecast to rise by 11.5 per cent over the five-year period shown in Figure 24.1. This overall increase is comprised of a 22.4 per cent increase in primary and primary/secondary graduate teachers offset by a 3.0 per cent fall in secondary graduate teacher supply. Estimates of graduate teacher supply over the five years to 2011 indicate that approximately 3,360 teachers will be available each year to teach in schools (i.e. 80% of the total number of graduating students). * Forecast at October 2007
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
32
ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY GENDER ¾
Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses continue to be predominantly by females. However the proportion of males in post-graduate pre-service teacher education courses is higher than for undergraduate courses.
FIGURE 25.1: PERCENTAGE OF MALES IN FIRST YEAR PRIMARY AND PRIMARY/SECONDARY VICTORIAN PRESERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999–2007 Per cent
26.0
undergraduate
postgraduate
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
Males comprise around one fifth of first year pre-service teacher education enrolments in Primary and Primary/Secondary courses. Since 2005 the proportion of male postgraduate students has been consistently higher than the 1999 level. The proportion of male undergraduate students has fluctuated around the 20 per cent level without significant change. FIGURE 25.2: PERCENTAGE OF MALES IN FIRST YEAR SECONDARY VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999–2007 41.0
Per cent
37.0
33.0
29.0 undergraduate
postgraduate
25.0
21.0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The proportion of male enrolments in first year secondary pre-service teacher education courses is almost double that for primary and primary/secondary pre-service teacher education courses and has been rising since 1999. Males comprise almost two fifths of first year pre-service teacher education enrolments in Secondary courses. The proportion of male postgraduate pre-service secondary teacher enrolments has fluctuated around 38 per cent for the last few years. The proportion of male undergraduates in 2007 was only 2.9 percentage points lower than that for postgraduates. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
33
GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM VICTORIAN TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS ¾
Graduates from undergraduate teacher education programs are more likely to become teachers than graduates from postgraduate programs. FIGURE 26.1: GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM VICTORIAN UNDERGRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, 2006 (PER CENT) 18.2%
Secondary Teacher
11.5%
Primary Teacher
Special Education Teachers
10.3%
1.6% 58.3%
Other education (Pre-Primary, Universty lecturer / Tutor, unspecified) Other employment
Source: Graduate Careers Council of Australia
Over three quarters of 2006 graduates from Victorian undergraduate teacher education programs became teachers, with 58.3 per cent of the total becoming primary teachers. A total of 11.5 per cent of graduates enter other forms of employment. FIGURE 26.2: GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM VICTORIAN POSTGRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, 2006 (PER CENT) 17.2% 11.6% Secondary Teacher 2.8% Primary Teacher 16.1% Special Education Teachers
Other education (Pre-Primary, Universty lecturer / Tutor, unspecified) Other employment 52.3% Source: Graduate Careers Council of Australia
Less than three quarters of 2006 graduates from Victorian postgraduate teacher education programs became teachers, with 52.3 per cent of the total becoming secondary teachers. A total of 17.2 per cent of 2006 graduates from postgraduate teacher education programs went onto other employment. Postgraduate programs provide a quicker response to changes in teacher demand. However, graduates from undergraduate teacher education programs are more likely to become teachers than graduates from postgraduate programs. This factor combined with the continued growth in postgraduate teacher education courses may create a dilemma in terms of future supply. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
34
CONCLUSION FIGURE 27.1: PROJECTED PRIMARY & PRIMARY/SECONDARY TEACHER DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NEW TEACHER GRADUATE TEACHERS, 2007–11 2,400
Number of teachers
2,200
2,000 Surplus Primary-trained teachers
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
Demand for teachers (forecast at Dec. 2007)
1,000 2007 Source: DEECD
2008
Supply of graduate teachers (forecast at Oct. 2007)
2009
2010
2011
FIGURE 27.2: PROJECTED SECONDARY TEACHER DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NEW TEACHER GRADUATE TEACHERS, 2007–11 2,200
Number of teachers
Probable sources of non-Victorian graduate secondary teachers 2,000
1,800
1,600
Registered teachers not currently teaching
Interstate teachers
Overseas teachers
CRT pool
1,400
1,200 Supply of graduate teachers (forecast at Oct. 2007) 1,000 2007 Source: DEECD
2008
2009
Demand for teachers (forecast at Dec. 2007)
2010
2011
The estimated supply of teacher graduates is showing a forecast surplus of primary and primary/secondary trained teachers and a shortfall of secondary trained teachers. Subtracting the total projected number of new secondary teachers required over the projection period from the projected supply of new secondary teachers over the same period and dividing by the number of projection years results in the need to recruit an additional 470 secondary teachers on average each year to staff Government and non-government schools from interstate and overseas, previous years’ graduates not working in the profession and from former teachers wishing to rejoin the profession.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
35
TABLE 1.1: TOTAL STUDENTS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA (FTE)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Government Catholic Independent
517,883
519,539
522,493
526,197
529,703
533,894
535,204
537,147
537,971
538,261
537,646
176,133
177,355
178,239
178,728
179,398
179,979
180,493
179,811
179,844
180,676
182,404
83,353
85,699
87,866
91,228
94,368
97,365
100,935
104,202
106,466
108,907
111,577
Total
777,368
782,593
788,598
796,152
803,469
811,238
816,633
821,160
824,281
827,843
831,627
Source: DEECD
TABLE 1.2: TOTAL TEACHERS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA (FTE)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Government Catholic Independent
34,045
34,154
33,763
35,156
35,660
36,304
36,816
37,665
37,783
38,141
38,608
10,432
10,415
10,494
10,784
11,045
11,222
11,462
11,637
11,717
11,912
12,225
6,863
7,014
7,136
7,419
7,785
8,149
8,528
8,908
9,348
9,695
10,020
Total
51,340
51,582
51,393
53,359
54,490
55,675
56,806
58,209
58,848
59,748
60,853
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ABS
TABLE 2.1: PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR
1996 Government Catholic Independent Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
63.5
64.6
65.1
66.1
67.0
67.9
68.4
68.6
68.9
69.3
69.5
69.6
69.3
69.3
69.6
69.8
70.4
70.1
69.9
70.0
70.1
70.0
59.6
60.3
60.3
60.9
61.5
61.8
62.2
62.1
62.5
62.7
63.2
64.2
65.0
65.3
66.1
66.8
67.5
67.8
67.9
68.1
68.4
68.5
Source: ABS
TABLE 2.2: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF
1997 1998 Total Teaching Service 64.1 64.9 Teacher class 68.7 69.5 Leading Teacher 55.3 56.0 Principal class 33.3 34.6 NB Teacher Class includes Instructors
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
65.9
66.9
67.6
68.3
68.6
68.9
69.4
69.6
69.9
70.4
71.1
71.8
72.1
72.1
72.1
72.2
72.2
72.3
56.8
57.9
58.8
59.2
60.2
61.1
62.7
63.1
63.8
36.1
38.3
40.7
42.7
44.3
45.6
47.3
49.0
50.9
Source: DEECD
TABLE 3: AGE PROFILE OF TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR AND SEX (NUMBER), 2007
Government Age group Males Females 20–24 382 1,669 25–29 1,457 4,811 30–34 1,369 3,601 35–39 1,147 2,980 40–44 1,254 3,676 45–49 1,984 5,130 50–54 3,035 7,075 55–59 1,659 3,397 60–64 516 989 65 plus 92 150 Total 12,895 33,478 NB only staff registered with the VIT are included
Catholic Males
Females
Independent Males Females
111
537
108
320
419
1,538
366
1,005
477
1,304
582
1,073
567
1,463
597
1,088
577
1,572
563
1,114
742
1,837
641
1,264
613
1,656
642
1,211
387
1,099
566
884
216
524
315
418
72
141
86
97
4,181
11,671
4,466
8,474
Source: VIT
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
i
TABLE 3.3: AGE PROFILE OF TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR (NUMBER)
Age group 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
1997 Government Catholic
2002 Government
2007 Catholic
Government
Catholic
962
215
2,022
500
2,149
692
2,405
1,654
3,780
1,343
5,888
1,714
3,369
1,963
3,166
1,717
4,180
1,456
5,475
1,895
3,750
1,678
3,536
1,719
9,633
2,138
6,473
2,220
4,585
1,985
8,314
1,693
10,245
2,253
6,957
2,457
5,385
1,293
8,215
1,589
9,997
2,112
1,405
774
2,780
981
4,885
1,290
270
274
625
382
1,468
578
21
88
83
72
229
131
37,239
11,987
41,139
12,735
43,874
14,134
Source: DEECD, CEC
TABLE 3.5: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT PRINCIPAL CLASS STAFF (NUMBER)
Age group 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
1997
2002
2007
-
-
-
6
8
2
30
21
45
113
71
115
586
336
192
906
946
590
939
1,087
1,263
177
310
559
12
50
125
3
4
14
2,772
2,833
2,905
Source: DEECD
TABLE 4.1: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF IN SURVEY – MATHEMATICS (NUMBER)
Under 25 1995 2006
25–29
30–34
35–39
8
58
96
122
40–44 177
45–49 151
50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total 67
13
1
1
694
52
150
119
139
200
277
363
157
43
5
1,505
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey 2006
TABLE 4.2: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF IN SURVEY – SCIENCE (NUMBER)
Under 25 1995 2006
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
6
43
88
95
109
79
42
4
1
-
467
37
100
88
72
106
116
116
51
16
2
704
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey 2006
TABLE 4.3: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF IN SURVEY – PHYSICAL EDUCATION (NUMBER)
Under 25 1995 2006
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
15
46
57
65
51
21
20
4
-
-
279
57
114
72
41
62
79
45
12
1
-
483
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey 2006
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
ii
TABLE 4.4: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF AGED 50 YEARS AND OVER IN SURVEY
Metal technology Electronics Wood technology Clothing & Textiles Tech. studies – General Home economics LOTE French Accounting Food tech. & Catering Mathematics – VCE
2002
2004
2006
47.0
49.1
58.5
44.9
58.3
54.0
50.0
48.2
49.6
35.3
44.8
47.5
35.1
39.9
46.9
28.7
33.7
46.9
49.3
55.4
46.5
40.9
48.8
45.6
33.3
43.3
43.9
33.4
37.3
43.4
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
TABLE 5: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON FIXED TERM AGREEMENTS
% of TS June 1996 September 1996 December 1996 March 1997 June 1997 September 1997 December 1997 March 1998 June 1998 September 1998 December 1998 April 1999 June 1999 September 1999 December 1999
% of TS March 2000 June 2000 September 2000 December 2000 March 2001 June 2001 September 2001 December 2001 March 2002 June 2002 September 2002 December 2002 March 2003 June 2003 September 2003
7.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 11.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 13.9 15.6 15.1 16.9 18.4 19.6 18.1
19.2 17.3 17.4 12.8 14.2 15.5 16.5 13.7 15.4 16.6 17.7 14.9 17.1 17.9 19.2
% of TS December 2003 March 2004 June 2004 September 2004 December 2004 March 2005 June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007
16.0 17.1 18.4 18.1 15.0 15.8 17.0 16.9 17.0 15.5 16.8 17.6 17.9 17.3 18.5
Source: DEECD
TABLE 6.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF WORKING PART TIME
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
13.7
14.5
15.5
16.5
16.9
17.5
18.4
18.9
19.4
19.9
20.1
20.4
Source: DEECD
TABLE 6.2: PERCENTAGE OF CATHOLIC TEACHING SERVICE STAFF WORKING PART TIME
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
22.2
22.2
23.3
22.9
25.1
25.7
26.5
27.0
27.9
28.1
28.4
Source: CEC
TABLE 7: SICK AND CARER’S LEAVE DAYS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, PER 1,000 STAFF (NUMBER)
Sick leave with a certificate Sick leave w/o a certificate Carer's leave
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5,621
5,602
5,280
5,260
5,300
5,411
5,473
5,558
5,598
5,596
5,718
2,257
2,171
2,173
2,197
2,200
2,237
2,283
2,304
2,340
2,269
2,264
-
-
-
368
400
437
494
531
545
588
669
Source: DEECD
TABLE 8: LONG SERVICE LEAVE USAGE BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF (FTE TAKEN)
1996 Principal class Teacher class
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
319.0
441.0
448.6
446.0
556.0
595.9
646.1
669.7
777.5
879.4
901.8
2,913.4
3,630.9
4,148.0
4,269.9
5,001.9
4,931.4
5,126.7
5,108.7
5,613.4
6,522.4
7025.7
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
iii
TABLE 9: GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON LEAVE WITHOUT PAY (LWOP) (FTE)
Total LWOP
Family Leave
5,804.7
3,137.4
5,127.1
2,721.8
4,085.5
2,344.9
3,682.6
2,024.8
3,286.4
1,782.1
3,162.4
1,643.0
3,069.3
1,581.3
3,101.4
1,550.1
3,336.8
1,649.1
3,478.6
1,715.1
3,411.7
1,786.5
3,444.4
1,905.1
3,679.6
2,031.6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: DEECD
TABLE 10: STANDARD WORKCOVER CLAIMS BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF (RATE)
Standard claims
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
15.8
12.2
14.5
15.7
14.9
16.5
18.2
17.2
15.1
13.8
14.9
Source: DEECD
TABLE 11.1: VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE (NUMBER)
Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6,251
4,636
4,600
4,764
4,169
5,026
3,559
2007 4,629
393
323
477
513
461
831
866
1,151
3,662
3,296
3,946
4,210
4,048
6,107
6,550
7,561
-
-
-
-
-
550
656
687
10,306
8,255
9,024
9,487
8,678
12,514
11,631
14,028
Source: DEECD
TABLE 11.3: VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE (NUMBER)
Ongoing Fixed term Ongoing Secondary Fixed term Total Primary
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,643
1,053
1,159
945
748
4,730
3,683
3,598
3,988
3,574
1,246
1,214
1,787
1,148
1,226
2,687
2,305
2,480
3,407
3,130
10,306
8,255
9,024
9,487
8,678
Source: DEECD
TABLE 11.5: VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE (NUMBER)
Ongoing Primary Fixed term Ongoing Pri/Sec Fixed term Ongoing Secondary Fixed term Ongoing Special Fixed term Total
2005
2006
590
615
2007 762
4,436
2,944
3,867 406
98
340
733
526
745
1,380
2,656
2,652
4,727
3,894
4,909
65
111
85
485
545
602
12,514
11,631
14,028
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
iv
TABLE 11.7: SECONDARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA (NUMBER)
2007 Fixed term
The Arts English Health & Physical Education LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology Curriculum Support Specialist Remedial Special Total
Ongoing
Total
668
289
957
669
360
1,029
438
273
711
162
118
280
512
430
942
499
401
900
657
339
996
340
320
660
282
43
325
73
12
85
30
6
36
4,330
2,591
6,921
Source: DEECD
DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES: Difficulty was defined as ‘No suitable, qualified applicants were provided through
either the Graduate Recruitment program, Teacher Scholarship scheme, Career Change program or Recruitment Online’. TABLE 12.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULTIES IN RECRUITING TEACHING STAFF BY SCHOOL TYPE
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Total
21.7
47.6
59.4
37.2
29.4
18.0
50.0
50.0
40.7
25.4
12.7
50.0
50.7
35.0
21.3
8.2
35.4
44.4
25.6
15.9
6.6
42.9
44.2
28.0
15.1
6.8
38.5
45.7
36.3
15.8
6.3
50.0
49.6
42.5
16.7
Source: DEECD
TABLE 12.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (PER CENT OF TOTAL VACANCIES IN SCHOOL TYPE)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Total
13.7
17.5
25.3
36.4
19.0
10.6
16.4
16.9
26.2
13.9
5.6
16.7
15.5
20.2
10.8
3.7
12.6
13.4
14.5
8.5
3.2
18.1
12.4
13.0
8.3
4.1
12.8
12.6
19.5
8.9
3.2
17.3
12.4
20.7
8.8
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
v
TABLE 12.3: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA (FTE)
Key Learning Area The Arts English Health & Phys Ed LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology General Classroom Specialist teachers All Subjects
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
67.8
43.2
49.7
31.9
27.6
28.1
24.8
41.5
39.8
34.8
19.2
32.4
17.9
40.9
44.6
42.3
56.5
23.0
31.8
16.8
15.3
162.1
90.0
90.5
71.4
58.5
56.4
33.7
81.5
61.0
68.7
55.0
69.3
76.5
99.8
68.6
36.9
41.3
31.2
28.5
39.4
51.1
15.3
19.7
20.3
13.6
13.2
12.0
6.3
91.1
71.1
59.8
66.7
43.7
62.9
59.2
203.6
204.3
104.8
51.8
55.7
67.4
53.1
102.1
76.1
51.9
36.0
40.8
62.1
70.0
878.2
684.4
578.1
399.8
401.5
439.5
454.2
Source: DEECD
MAP 1 DATA: GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES (DFVs) IN EACH YEAR FROM 2005–07 BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA (TOTAL FTE OF DFVs AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL FTE OF TEACHING STAFF)
Local Government Area West Wimmera (S) Buloke (S) Hindmarsh (S) Pyrenees (S) Mildura (RC) Mitchell (S) Gannawarra (S) Towong (S) Northern Grampians (S) Moira (S) Glenelg (S) Wellington (S) Ararat (RC) Loddon (S) Colac-Otway (S)
DFVs per 100 staff 7.39 5.82 5.17 3.78 3.40 3.34 3.30 3.29 3.21 3.14 2.77 2.75 2.72 2.37 2.35
Source: DEECD
MAP 2 DATA: GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL MATHEMATICS VACANCIES IN EACH YEAR FROM 2005–07 BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA (TOTAL FTE OF MATHEMATICS DFVs AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL FTE OF SECONDARY TEACHING STAFF)
Local Government Area Bass Coast (S) Towong (S) Hindmarsh (S) Colac-Otway (S) Wellington (RC) Moira (S) Greater Shepparton (C) East Gippsland (S) Macedon Ranges (S) Mitchell (S) Cardinia (S) Mildura (RC) Swan Hill (RC) Warrnambool (C) Alpine (S)
DFVs per 100 staff 2.05 1.58 1.53 1.45 1.37 1.34 1.21 1.18 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.00 0.96 0.93 0.75
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
vi
DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS: Difficulty was defined as having to make more than
three phone calls or had to go to more than one source in attempting to obtain a CRT. TABLE 13.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER (CRT) POSITIONS BY SCHOOL TYPE
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Language
Total
43.0
53.5
47.3
40.5
25.0
43.8
32.7
51.1
49.8
53.2
50.0
36.6
25.8
34.1
36.1
35.9
25.0
28.2
17.2
40.9
36.7
38.8
50.0
22.2
20.9
39.2
35.8
44.9
-
25.0
25.7
55.3
36.7
47.4
50.0
29.5
29.9
43.1
48.1
46.3
75.0
34.2
Source: DEECD Casual Relief Teacher Survey
TABLE 13.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (PER CENT OF CRTs EMPLOYED IN SCHOOL TYPE)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Language
Total
31.0
48.6
39.9
33.9
15.8
33.6
22.4
50.0
35.8
39.5
25.0
27.2
17.0
24.3
20.6
25.1
20.0
18.4
12.4
22.2
23.7
36.6
28.0
16.8
12.9
26.1
19.2
22.7
-
15.5
15.1
32.2
19.7
32.2
34.2
17.9
21.0
21.8
24.3
33.7
42.1
22.6
Source: DEECD Casual Relief Teacher Survey
TABLE 13.3: BACKGROUND OF CASUAL RELIEF TEACHERS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (PER CENT)
Retired teacher 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Resigned/Prefers CRT work
Part time from your school
Family leave/ Unemployed/Seeking LWOP employment etc.
Other
15.9
36.6
7.7
9.6
12.9
17.3
18.8
30.1
6.9
9.1
23.5
11.6
19.5
29.6
6.0
9.3
25.0
10.6
18.4
26.9
6.9
9.2
27.6
11.1
19.8
26.0
6.7
8.6
27.8
11.0
21.8
26.3
6.2
9.9
24.8
11.0
21.2
27.7
6.0
8.6
26.1
10.5
Source: DEECD Casual Relief Teacher Survey
TABLE 14: NEW TEACHING SERVICE STAFF EMPLOYED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ON BASE SUBDIVISION
FTE 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
% of Total New Teaching Staff
1,437.4
74.4
1,167.3
62.3
1,630.9
69.1
1,733.9
69.2
2,053.7
74.3
2,334.5
79.3
2,128.8
78.5
2,441.3
81.1
2,471.1
80.8
2,726.6
80.4
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
vii
TABLE 15.1: GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS TO GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS
Number 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
FTE
514
511.9
451
448.1
587
582.4
979
970.3
1,298
1,269.8
1,386
1,367.5
Source: DEECD * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008
TABLE 15.2: GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS BY LENGTH OF CONTRACT 2008*
Metropolitan No.
Less than 1 year 1 year 2 years 3–5 years 6–8 years Ongoing Total
Non-metropolitan
Per cent
No.
Total Per cent
5
0.6
5
1.0
10
460
51.1
310
63.9
770
49
5.4
31
6.4
80
28
3.1
10
2.1
38
45
5.0
11
2.3
56
314
34.9
118
24.3
432
901
100.0
485
100.0
1,386
Source: DEECD
TABLE 16.1: NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY METROPOLITAN/NON-METROPOLITAN LOCATION
Metropolitan 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08*
Non-metropolitan
Total
No.
%
No.
%
99
59.3
68
40.7
167
127
51.2
121
48.8
248
102
47.0
115
53.0
217
37
20.8
141
79.2
178
35
19.2
147
80.8
182
53
29.1
129
70.8
182
17
21.8
61
78.2
78
Source: DEECD
TABLE 16.2: NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SEX
Males 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08*
Females
Total
No.
%
No.
%
52
31.1
115
68.9
167
92
37.1
156
62.9
248
79
36.4
138
63.6
217
85
47.8
93
52.2
178
82
45.1
100
54.9
182
84
46.2
98
53.8
182
38
48.7
40
41.3
78
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
viii
TABLE 16.3: NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA
2002/03 Key Learning Area The Arts English Health & Phys Ed LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology General Classroom Specialist teachers ACSS – Library All Subjects
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08*
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
18
7.3
12
5.5
8
4.5
13
7.1
14
7.7
5
6.4
35
14.1
16
7.4
8
4.5
11
6.0
11
6.0
8
10.2
13
5.2
30
13.8
29
16.3
16
8.8
12
6.6
2
2.6
11
4.4
19
8.8
10
5.6
22
12.1
10
5.5
-
-
44
17.7
26
12.0
57
32.0
57
31.3
54
29.7
29
37.2
15
6.0
29
13.4
5
2.8
4
2.2
18
9.9
10
12.8
10
4.0
12
5.5
9
5.1
5
2.7
7
3.8
1
1.3
35
14.1
19
8.8
41
23.0
36
19.8
43
23.6
21
26.9
66
26.6
49
22.6
9
5.1
15
8.2
10
5.5
1
1.3
1
0.4
5
2.3
2
1.1
3
1.6
1
0.5
1
1.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
1.1
-
-
248
100.0
217
100.0
178
100.0
182
100.0
182
100.0
78
100.0
Source: DEECD
* not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008
TABLE 17: ATTRITION RATE FOR GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF (PER CENT)
1995 1.3
Projected as at 2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.6
3.1
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.8
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.4
Source: DEECD
TABLE 18: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS BY LEVEL AND SECTOR (FTE)
Government 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Primary Catholic Independent
Total
Government
Secondary Catholic Independent
Total
305,383
98,459
43,820
447,662
223,633
86,512
72,408
382,554
305,439
98,754
44,046
448,239
222,385
86,836
73,729
382,950
305,414
99,168
44,321
448,903
221,153
87,110
74,938
383,201
304,793
99,401
44,376
448,570
219,225
86,974
75,892
382,090
303,596
99,425
44,445
447,466
217,981
86,771
76,565
381,317
Source: DEECD
TABLE 19.1: PROJECTED (2007) NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY LEVEL (NUMBER)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Primary
Secondary
Total
1,380
2,030
3,410
1,430
2,000
3,430
1,540
1,750
3,290
1,570
1,710
3,280
1,490
1,560
3,050
Source: DEECD
TABLE 19.3: PROJECTED (2007) NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY SECTOR (NUMBER)
Government
Non-government
Total
2,050
1,360
3,410
2,140
1,290
3,430
2,120
1,170
3,290
2,110
1,170
3,280
1,980
1,070
3,050
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
ix
TABLE 20: APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (NUMBER)
Undergraduate 1st Preference Applications to VTAC Offers 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Postgraduate Acceptances of offers Applications to VTAC Offers
Acceptances of offers
4,563
3,557
-
-
-
-
4,805
3,646
-
-
-
-
5,478
2,587
-
-
-
-
5,054
2,564
-
-
-
-
2,463
2,256
-
-
-
-
3,380
2,924
-
-
-
-
3,524
2,927
-
-
-
-
3,211
2,702
-
-
-
-
3,624
2,694
-
-
-
-
4,090
2,311
-
2,353
-
-
4,390
2,478
1,810
2,601
2,114
1,090
4,972
2,401
1,747
3,442
2,585
1,795
5,617
2,208
1,430
4,644
2,903
2,098
6,122
2,318
1,688
5,465
2,940
1,852
6,420
2,510
1,816
5,729
3,200
1,976
6,331
3,483
2,541
4,859
3,529
2,260
5,890
3,398
2,453
4,206
3,358
2,228
6,122
3,750
2,613
4,045
3,385
2,289
Source: VIT, VTAC
TABLE 21.1: FIRST YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (FTE)
Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
3,508
3,746
2,866
2,378
2,043
1,969
2,130
2,247
2,360
2,028
1,214
1,380
1,131
1,074
959
952
1,002
1,236
1,502
1,687
4,722
5,126
3,997
3,452
3,002
2,921
3,132
3,483
3,862
3,715
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,082
2,191
2,088
2,058
2,160
2,653
2,661
2,958
1,760
2,001
2,395
2,271
2,670
2,792
2,698
2,753
3,842
4,192
4,483
4,329
4,831
5,445
5,630
5,711
Source: VIT
TABLE 21.2: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (FTE)
Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1,122
1,227
1,325
1,299
1,552
1,537
1,679
1,702
1,781
1,754
1,816
1,078
1,358
1,507
1,632
1,936
2,309
2,343
2,607
2,692
2,735
2,653
2,200
2,585
2,831
2,930
3,488
3,845
4,022
4,309
4,473
4,489
4,469
Source: VIT
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
x
TABLE 22.1: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) (NUMBER)
The Arts English Health & Physical Education LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology (Library etc.) Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
342
363
430
510
499
694
511
692
382
464
620
540
490
705
671
713
324
408
433
488
442
445
553
134
158
162
123
152
199
117
130
185
179
173
257
549
585
770
811
823
654
712
775
837
82
53
95
68
2005
2006
2007
758
791
792
722
731
670
591
681
561
611
213
190
268
204
154
275
292
330
269
293
1,042
933
937
977
935
955
886
1,162
989
992
1,081
1,119
961
130
275
343
373
409
411
312
7
1
1
-
1
1
8
3
8
8
6
2,591
2,874
3,471
3,556
3,596
4,780
4,496
4,783
5,234
5,029
4,754
Source: VIT Note: the number of students by KLA is roughly twice that of student enrolments as the majority of intending teachers prepare to teach two subject areas
TABLE 22.3: FINAL YEAR STUDENT NUMBERS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY SELECTED SOSE SUBJECT (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) (NUMBER)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
311
356
415
407
455
599
509
476
562
529
421
72
40
43
107
115
151
130
172
162
213
214
SOSE (Subject) History Source: VIT
TABLE 23: AVERAGE ENTER SCORE FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (SCORE) 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
66.5
70.7
72.1
73.8
76.0
76.9
76.8
74.6
71.7
70.0
Source: VIT, VTAC
TABLE 24: PROJECTED (OCTOBER 2007) GRADUATE TEACHER SUPPLY (NUMBER)
Primary & Pri/Sec
Secondary
Total
1,865
1,390
3,255
1,814
1,406
3,219
2,006
1,245
3,251
2,130
1,302
3,433
2,282
1,348
3,630
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: VIT
TABLE 25: PERCENTAGE OF MALES IN FIRST YEAR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (PER CENT)
Primary + Pri/Sec Undergraduate Postgraduate Total Secondary Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
1999 Male
2000 Male
2001 Male
2002 Male
2003 Male
2004 Male
2005 Male
2006 Male
2007 Male
20.7
18.1
20.5
20.7
18.5
18.8
21.0
18.9
21.0
22.7
19.1
22.4
19.9
23.6
20.1
23.7
26.0
23.3
21.2
18.4
21.0
20.4
20.0
19.3
21.9
21.4
21.8
34.2
37.6
34.5
31.5
23.2
33.1
35.5
37.3
36.1
35.5
36.0
36.5
37.7
37.9
39.2
37.1
40.5
39.0
35.2
36.5
35.9
36.1
33.6
37.8
36.6
39.7
38.2
Source: VIT
TABLE 26: GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, 2006 (PER CENT)
Undergraduate Secondary Teacher Primary Teacher Special Education Teacher Other education (Pre-Primary, University lecturer/ Tutor) Other employment
Postgraduate
18.2
52.3
58.3
16.1
1.6
2.8
10.3
11.6
11.5
17.2
Source: Graduate Careers Council of Australia
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
xi
Prepared by: Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group
2007
TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN VICTORIA TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Executive summary School population ........................................................................................................ 1 DEMAND....................................................................................................................2 Gender ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Age groups ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Age profile by selected subjects ...................................................................................................... 6 Fixed term agreement teachers........................................................................................................ 8 Time fraction...................................................................................................................................... 9 Sick leave ............................................................................................................................................ 9 Long service leave ........................................................................................................................... 10 Leave without pay ........................................................................................................................... 10 Workcover claims............................................................................................................................ 11 Advertised vacancies in schools .................................................................................................... 11 Difficult to fill vacancies ................................................................................................................ 15 Geographical distribution of difficult to fill vacancies............................................................... 16 Difficult to fill casual relief teacher positions.............................................................................. 17 Background of casual relief teachers ............................................................................................ 18 New teaching service employments ............................................................................................. 19 Graduate Recruitment Program employments ........................................................................... 19 Teaching Scholarships .................................................................................................................... 20 Attrition rates ................................................................................................................................... 22 Projected student enrolments........................................................................................................ 22 Projected teacher numbers............................................................................................................. 24 SUPPLY .....................................................................................................................26 Applications and Offers for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses....................... 27 Applications, Offers and Acceptances for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses .................................................................................................................... 28 Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses .............................................. 29 Final year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses by Key Learning Area .................................................................................................................. 30 Final year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses for selected SOSE subjects........................................................................................................... 31 Average ENTER scores for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses ...................... 31 Forecast graduate supply................................................................................................................ 32 Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses by gender............................ 33 Graduate destinations from Victorian teacher education programs........................................ 34 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 35 Data tables......................................................................................................................................i–xi
Teacher Supply and Demand
INTRODUCTION This is the sixth annual teacher supply and demand report for Victoria prepared on behalf of the Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group. The report focuses on: ¾ the composition of the Government and Catholic teaching service and how it has altered in recent years in terms of gender and age and attrition; ¾ the outlook for the teaching service over the next four years; ¾ the historic trends in pre-service teacher education and the outlook for the next four years. In preparing the report data was collated from the Catholic Education Commission (CEC), Victorian Institute of Teaching (VIT), Victorian Tertiary Admissions Centre (VTAC) and the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD). Independent sector (the non Catholic non-government sector) data has been sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). As at 2006 86.6 per cent of students attended and 83.5 per cent of teaching service staff were employed in the Government and Catholic sectors. As such, the information contained in this report covers the majority of students and teaching service staff in Victoria. In projecting student numbers for the Independent sector historic trends in student enrolments have been extrapolated forward. In projecting teachers required in Victorian schools for the period 2007–11 a similar model is used for the non-government sector (both Catholic and Independent) as is used for the Government sector. These figures are then adjusted on the basis of the various student teacher ratios provided in the ABS publication Schools, Australia. In commissioning this report the Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group considered that extrapolation of the data that was available in both the Government and Catholic sectors would provide adequate representation of teacher supply and demand across Victoria.
Teacher Supply and Demand
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ¾
There were 831,627 students enrolled in Victorian schools in 2006, of which 537,646 (64.6%) were in Government schools, 182,404 (21.9%) in Catholic schools and 111,577 (13.4%) in other Independent schools.
¾
There were 60,853 (FTE) teachers in Victoria in 2006, of which 38,608 (63.4%) were in Government schools, 12,225 (20.1%) in Catholic schools and 10,020 (16.5%) in other Independent schools.
¾
Both student enrolments and teacher numbers in Victoria grew over the ten years from 1996 to 2006.
¾
Female teachers in Government schools in 2007 make up 72.3 per cent of the Teacher class and, while the proportion of females in the Principal class (50.9%) is significantly lower, it is growing rapidly.
¾
The age profile of the teaching workforce continues to increase with the single biggest age group (22.8%) of Government sector teaching service staff aged 50–54 years in 2007. Catholic sector teaching service staff are also ageing, but with a much less pronounced spike (17.4%) in the younger 45–49 year age group.
¾
Fixed term agreement staff, while below the 1999 peak, continue to represent around 17 per cent of the Government teaching service workforce and have been trending higher.
¾
Part time work is a significant and growing factor in the Victorian teaching service. Around one fifth of Government teaching service staff are part time employees, while almost one third of the Catholic teaching service works part time.
¾
The attrition rate for teaching service staff in the Government sector was at 4.8 per cent in 2006 and is forecast to continue rising.
¾
Overall, both primary and secondary student enrolments in Victorian schools are forecast to rise over the next two years before falling back to below 2008 levels by 2012.
¾
New teaching staff requirements in Victorian schools are forecast to average 3,290 teachers each year over the next five years with secondary teachers in greater demand.
¾
Nearly two thirds of all applicants for pre-service teacher education courses in Victoria are offered a place in the course.
¾
There is a trend away from undergraduate pre-service teacher education courses.
¾
The supply of graduate teachers from Victorian pre-service teacher education courses is projected to rise to 3,630 in 2011, with most of the increase in Primary- and Primary/Secondary-trained teachers.
BACKGROUND SCHOOL POPULATION ¾
Student enrolments and teacher numbers in Victoria have increased over the ten years to 2006. FIGURE 1.1: TOTAL SCHOOL STUDENTS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA, 1996–2006 FTE of students
1,000,000
Government
Catholic
Indpendent
750,000
500,000
250,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Victoria schools have grown by 7.0 per cent since 1996 as shown in Figure 1.1. Student enrolments in the Government and Catholic sectors have risen slightly (3.8% and 3.6% respectively) while the Independent sector rose by 33.9 per cent. The Government sector accounts for just under two thirds (64.6%) of the total student population in Victoria. FIGURE 1.2: TOTAL TEACHERS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA, 1996–2006 75,000
FTE of teachers Government
Catholic
Independent
60,000
45,000
30,000
15,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ABS
Total teachers employed in Victorian schools have increased 18.5 per cent since 1996 and increased in all sectors. Teachers employed in the Government sector were 13.4 per cent higher in 2006 than in 1996. Teachers employed in the Catholic sector were 17.2 per cent higher and Independent sector teacher numbers were 46.0 per cent higher in 2006 than in 1996.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
1
DEMAND The following section provides information relating to teacher demand. Data on the gender of teachers and age of the teaching workforce is analysed for all sectors. More detailed analyses are provided for the Government sector in regard to part time and fixed term employment, various forms of leave, recruitment difficulties and recruitment initiatives such as the Graduate Recruitment program and Teaching Scholarships. These are contrasted with projected teacher attrition (for the Government sector only) and projected student enrolments and projected teacher numbers for both the Government and non Government sectors to present a comprehensive picture of demand related issues in Victorian schools.
Summary Whilst overall student numbers across all sectors have increased 7.0 per cent since 1996 teacher numbers have increased by 18.5 per cent over this same period. Projections indicate that the ageing of the current Government teaching workforce will continue over the next 5 years, such that retirements as a proportion of the teaching workforce will rise. This will create further demand for teachers in particular subject areas. Student enrolments in secondary schools are forecast to fall slightly. This will lessen the demand for secondary teachers. Increased demand for teachers is currently being felt in specific subject and geographic areas. Many of these subjects reflect a national trend of shortage. In Government schools the specific subject areas are: Special Education, Mathematics, Science, Physics, Technology including IT, Physical Education and LOTE (especially Italian, French, Indonesian, German and Japanese). Parts of the state that experience sustained difficulties in recruiting teachers to Government schools are Victoria’s far west and north and in the growth corridors on Melbourne’s urban fringe. In 2007 almost half of all Government secondary schools and half of all Government primary/secondary schools reported difficulties recruiting teaching service staff, but only 6.3 per cent of Government primary schools. Almost one third (29.9%) of Government primary schools and almost half (48.1%) of Government secondary schools reported difficulty in obtaining casual relief teachers. The proportion of Government schools reporting teacher recruitment difficulties and difficulty obtaining casual relief staff had been trending down, but has risen over the last two years. Over the five years to 2011 approximately 3,290 new teachers are forecast to be required each year across all Victorian schools.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
2
GENDER ¾
Female teachers comprise the majority of teachers in Victoria. While the proportion of females in the Principal class in Government schools is significantly lower, it is growing rapidly. FIGURE 2.1: PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1996–2006
71.0
Per cent
69.0
67.0 Government
Catholic
Independent
65.0
63.0
61.0
59.0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ABS
Female teachers account for nearly 70 per cent of the total teaching service in the Government sector in 2006. Similarly for the Catholic sector females represent 70 per cent of teaching staff and over 63 per cent in the Independent sector. The proportion of female teaching service staff in the Government sector has increased by around 6 percentage points from 1996 to 2006 and 4 percentage points for the Independent sector, while the proportion of female teaching service staff in the Catholic sector has remained relatively stable. FIGURE 2.2: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1997–2007 80.0
Per cent Teacher class
Leading Teacher *
Principal class
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
While the proportion of females as Leading Teachers in the Government sector has been growing the increase is significantly faster in the Principal class, increasing by almost 2 percentage points per year, but from a much lower base. By comparison the proportion of females as Leading Teachers is growing at less than half that rate. Overall the Teacher class has the highest proportion of females at 72.3 per cent followed by Leading Teachers with 63.8 per cent. The proportion of females in the Principal class has increased rapidly over the last decade and was 50.9 per cent at 2007. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
3
AGE GROUPS ¾
The age profile of the teaching workforce continues to increase. FIGURE 3.1: TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR AND AGE GROUP, 2007 Per cent in age cohort
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0 Government 0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
Catholic
40-44
Independent
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: VIT
The comparison between age profiles of teaching service staff in the Government, Catholic and Independent sectors highlights the ageing workforce in the Government sector. Nearly one quarter of Government teaching service staff are in the 50–54 year cohort, while the age distribution of the workforce is more even in the other sectors. FIGURE 3.2: TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SEX AND AGE GROUP, 2007 25.0
Per cent in age cohort
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0 Males - Catholic & Independent Males Govt 0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Females - Catholic & Independent Females Govt 45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: VIT
When comparing the age and gender profiles of teachers in the Independent and Catholic sectors with teachers in the Government sector there are significantly more teachers in the Government sector in the 45–59 year age groups and significantly fewer in the 30–44 year age groups. This is consistent for both male and female teachers. The difference between the sectors is largest in the 50–54 age groups. The lower proportion of staff in the 30–44 year age groups in the Government sector is primarily due to the lack of recruitment during the 1990s.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
4
AGE GROUPS (cont.) FIGURE 3.3: GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY AGE GROUP, 1997, 2002 & 2007 Per cent in age cohort 25.0 1997
2002
2007
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD
Over the 10 years to 2007 the largest single age group amongst Government teaching service staff has shifted from 40–44 years to 50–54 years. The 50–54 year age group now accounts for nearly one quarter (22.8%) of the total teaching service workforce compared with the 40–44 year age group a decade ago which represented just over one quarter (25.9%) of the workforce. This reflects a broader trend which has seen the proportion of teaching service staff aged 45 years and over increase from 41.3 per cent in 1997 to 53.4 per cent in 2002 and 53.6 per cent in 2007. In comparison, the age groups 30 to 39 years accounted for less than one fifth (17.6%) of the teaching workforce in 2007. FIGURE 3.4: CATHOLIC TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY AGE GROUP, 1997, 2002 & 2007 20.0
Per cent in age cohort
15.0
10.0
5.0 1997 0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
2002
40-44
2007
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: CEC
In the Catholic sector the profile of teaching service staff by age cohort is younger and more evenly distributed than in the Government sector. In the Catholic sector the 45–49 age group has been the largest single group over the last five years and represents only 17.4 per cent of the total in 2007, followed by the 50–54 year group at 14.9 per cent. The change in the Catholic sector teaching staff profile over the last five years is similar to the Government sector profile but less pronounced. Catholic teaching service staff aged 45 years and over have increased from 34.4 per cent of the total in 1997 to 41.4 per cent in 2002 and 46.5 per cent in 2007. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
5
AGE GROUPS (cont.) FIGURE 3.5: GOVERNMENT PRINCIPAL CLASS STAFF BY AGE GROUP, 1997, 2002 & 2007 50.0
Per cent in age cohort
40.0 1997
2002
2007
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD
It is to be expected that the age profile of principal class members in the Government sector is more narrowly focussed than that of the teaching workforce. The proportion of principal class members aged 50 years and over has increased from 40.8 per cent in 1997 to 67.5 per cent in 2007. AGE PROFILE BY SELECTED SUBJECTS ¾
The age profile of teaching service staff in selected subjects highlights the ageing teacher workforce in the Government sector and is more apparent in some subjects than others. FIGURE 4.1: GOVERNMENT MATHEMATICS TEACHERS IN SURVEY* BY AGE GROUP, 1995 & 2006
30.0
Per cent in age cohort
25.0 1995
2006
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
The age profiles of Mathematics teachers in a sample survey of Government secondary schools shows a shift in the peak age group from 40–44 years in 1995 to 50–54 years in 2006. The shift in the age structure shows an increase in the proportion of surveyed Mathematics teachers in the 50–54 year age group from 9.7 per cent in 1995 to 24.1 per cent in 2006. From 1995 to 2006 the proportion of Mathematics teachers aged 45 years and over has grown from about one third to well over half. Note: The data on individual subjects taught in Government schools is derived from a biennial survey of approximately one third of Government secondary schools Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
6
AGE PROFILE BY SELECTED SUBJECTS (cont.) FIGURE 4.2: GOVERNMENT SCIENCE TEACHERS IN SURVEY BY AGE GROUP, 1995 & 2006 30.0
Per cent in age cohort
25.0 1995
2006
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
The age profile of Science teachers in a sample survey of Government Secondary schools has undergone two notable changes from 1995 to 2006 – the increases in both older (50+) and younger (under 30) teachers with a consequent ‘hollowing out’ of the 30–44 year age groups. The largest single group has shifted from the 40–44 year cohort to both the 45–49 and the 50–54 year cohorts, with the 45–49 year cohort almost unchanged since 1995.
FIGURE 4.3: GOVERNMENT PHYSICAL EDUCATION TEACHERS IN SURVEY BY AGE GROUP, 1995 & 2006 30.0
Per cent in age cohort
25.0 1995
2006
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Under 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 plus
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
In contrast to the age profiles of Mathematics and Science teachers, the largest group of Physical Education teachers in a sample survey of Government Secondary schools, as shown in Figure 4.3, is the 25–29 year age group in 2006. In terms of the change from 1995 to 2006 there has been a pronounced shift away from the 30–44 year age groups to both the younger (under 25–29) and the older (45–49) year age groups. In contrast to Maths and Science teachers the age groups 50+ have shown little change from 1995 to 2006.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
7
AGE PROFILE BY SELECTED SUBJECTS (cont.) FIGURE 4.4: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF AGED 50 YEARS AND OVER IN SURVEY, 2002–06 Per cent over 50 years of age
60.0
2002
2004
2006
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0 Metal technology
Electronics
Wood technology
Clothing and Tech studies Textiles General
Home LOTE French Accounting Food tech Mathematics economics and Catering VCE
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
Figure 4.4 shows some specific subjects where the percentage of Government teaching service staff aged 50 years or over is highest. Of these ten subjects seven are from the Technology KLA. Two of the subjects – Metal technology and Electronics – have more than half of teachers aged 50 years and over. Eight of the 10 subjects detailed above have seen an increase in the proportion of staff aged 50 years and over since 2002. FIXED TERM AGREEMENT TEACHERS ¾
Teaching staff on fixed term agreements, while still below the 1999 peak, represent around 17 per cent of the Government teaching service workforce. FIGURE 5: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON FIXED TERM AGREEMENTS, 1997–2007
20.0
Per cent
Fixed Term
4 quarter moving average
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
The proportion of Government teaching service staff on fixed term agreements rose steadily from 1997 to 1999, peaking at nearly one fifth (19.6%) of all teaching staff in September 1999 before dropping back. At June 2007 the proportion of teaching service staff on fixed term agreements has dropped to around 18.5 per cent. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
8
TIME FRACTION ¾
Part time work continues to grow in the teaching service.
FIGURE 6: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT AND CATHOLIC TEACHING SERVICE STAFF WORKING PART TIME, 1997–2007 30.0
Per cent
Government
Catholic
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD, CEC
The trend towards part time work for teaching staff in the Government and Catholic sectors has continued to increase over the decade. The proportion of part time teachers has increased from 14.5 per cent in 1997 to 20.4 per cent in 2007 for the Government sector and from 22.2 per cent in 1997 to 28.4 per cent in 2007 in the Catholic sector. SICK LEAVE FIGURE 7: RATE OF SICK AND CARER'S LEAVE TAKEN BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1996–2006 9,000
Days per 1,000 staff
8,000
7,000 Sick leave with a certificate
Sick leave w/o a certificate
Carer's leave
2001
2004
6,000
5,000
4,000 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
Source: DEECD
Over the 10 year period 1996 to 2006 the rate of sick and carer’s leave taken by Government teaching service staff has risen, despite a slight decrease from 2004 to 2005. The rate of certificated sick leave in 2006 was the highest in the series and 1.7 per cent higher than in 1996. Uncertificated sick leave in 2006 was similar to the 1996 rate. Carer’s leave has continued to grow since its introduction in 1999.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
9
LONG SERVICE LEAVE FIGURE 8: LONG SERVICE LEAVE USAGE BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1996–2006 7,500
FTE of Teaching Service Staff taking leave Principal
Teacher
5,000
2,500
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: DEECD
The use of Long Service leave by both principal class and teaching staff in Government schools has risen fairly steadily over the period 1996 to 2006. The full time equivalent of teaching service staff taking long service leave has more than doubled from 2,913.4 FTE in 1996 to 7,025.7 FTE in 2006, while the full time equivalent of principal class taking long service leave has risen from 319.0 FTE in 1996 to 901.8 FTE in 2006. LEAVE WITHOUT PAY ¾
Over the last ten years the number of Government teaching service staff on leave without pay has fallen. FIGURE 9: GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON LEAVE WITHOUT PAY (LWOP), 1997–2007
5,000
FTE of Teachers Family Leave
Total LWOP
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
From 1997 to 2007 the full time equivalent of Government teaching service staff on leave without pay has fallen by around 9.9 per cent. The major contributor to this fall has been the decline of teaching service staff on family leave. However, since 2001 the number of teaching service staff on leave without pay has started to increase (increasing 19.9 per cent from 2001 to 2007) due to teaching service staff on family leave increasing. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
10
WORKCOVER CLAIMS ¾
Workcover claims while still below the 2003 peak comprise 14.9 claims per thousand teaching service staff.
FIGURE 10: STANDARD WORKCOVER CLAIMS BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, 1997–2007 20
Number of Claims per 1,000 staff
16
12
8
4
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
The rate of standard workcover claims rose from 2006 to 2007, but is significantly lower in 2007 than the peak in 2003. The 14.9 claims per thousand teaching service staff in 2007 is 3.2 per cent lower than the average over the period 1997 to 2007. ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS The process of advertising vacancies data changed significantly from 2004 to 2005 with the introduction of Recruitment Online. As such the method of calculating vacancies has changed so that direct comparison of the 2005–07 data with previous years is not entirely reliable. FIGURE 11.1: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2000–04 7,000
Number of vacanices Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
6,000
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000
1,000 0 Source: DEECD
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Advertised vacancies in Government schools fell from 10,306 in 2000 to 8,678 in 2004 or a drop of 15.8 per cent. Vacancies for primary schools fell by 33.3 per cent from 2000 to 2004 while vacancies in Primary/Secondary school increased by 17.3 per cent and vacancies in secondary schools rose by 10.5 per cent. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
11
ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS (cont.) FIGURE 11.2: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2005–07 8,000
Number of vacanices Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2005
Source: DEECD
2006
2007
Since the introduction of Recruitment Online in 2005, the number of vacancies has increased from 12,514 in 2005 to 14,028 in 2007. Primary schools were the only school type to show a fall in vacancies from 2005 to 2007 by 7.9 per cent, while all other school types experienced an increase in the number of vacancies over this period, with Primary/Secondary school vacancies increasing by 38.5 per cent. FIGURE 11.3: ADVERTISED PRIMARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2000–04 5,000
Number of vacancies Ongoing
Fixed term
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: DEECD
Advertised primary vacancies in Government schools (regardless of school type) were dominated by fixed term positions. Over four fifths (82.7 per cent) of all primary vacancies in 2004 were fixed term positions. This is higher than the proportion in 2000 when 74.2 per cent of advertised primary vacancies were fixed term positions. Both fixed term and ongoing primary vacancies in Government schools fell from 2003 to 2004. Note: Figures 11.3 and 11.4 contain data about vacancies by level not school type, ie a Primary/Secondary school may have both Primary and Secondary vacancies some of which will appear in Figures 11.3 and some in 11.4. The subsequent data in Figures 11.5 and 11.6 is for all vacancies in a particular school type and is not directly comparable.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
12
ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS (cont.) FIGURE 11.4: ADVERTISED SECONDARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2000–04 4,000
Number of vacanices Ongoing
Fixed term
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Source: DEECD
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
For advertised secondary vacancies in Government schools the picture is different. The proportion of ongoing secondary vacancies in 2004 is slightly lower than in 2000. Ongoing vacancies accounted for 31.7 per cent of total secondary vacancies in 2000 and have fallen to 28.1 per cent in 2004. Fixed term secondary vacancies, however, increased by 16.5 per cent from 2000 to 2004 and by 71.4 per cent from 2004 to 2005. FIGURE 11.5: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2005–07 6,000
Number of vacanices Primary (Fixed term) Secondary (Fixed term)
Primary (Ongoing) Secondary (Ongoing)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Source: DEECD
2005
2006
2007
From 2005 to 2007 there has been a decline in advertised vacancies in Government primary schools of 7.9 per cent with a 29.2 per cent increase in ongoing vacancies offset by a fall of 12.8 per cent in fixed term positions. For secondary schools there was an overall increase of almost one quarter (23.8 per cent) in advertised vacancies with a slight rise in fixed term vacancies (3.9 per cent) and a near doubling (92.2 per cent) of ongoing positions. As the Recruitment Online system was only introduced in early 2005 there may be some inconsistency between the 2005 and later data sets.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
13
ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN SCHOOLS (cont.) FIGURE 11.6: ADVERTISED VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT PRI/SEC AND SPECIAL SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2005–07 Number of vacanices
800
Pri/Sec (Fixed term)
Pri/Sec (Ongoing)
Special (Fixed term)
Special (Ongoing)
600
400
200
0 Source: DEECD
2005
2006
2007
For advertised vacancies in Government Primary/Secondary schools there has been a shift towards ongoing positions from 2005 to 2007, while fixed term positions have remained relatively constant. However, most of the increases in vacancies in Special schools have been for fixed term positions.
FIGURE 11.7: ADVERTISED SECONDARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 2007 750
Number of vacancies
Ongoing
Fixed Term
600
450
300
150
0 The Arts
English
Health & PE
LOTE
Mathematics
Science
SOSE
Technology
Source: DEECD
Specialist Remedial
Special
Of secondary school vacancies, vacancies in the English KLA comprise the largest single group advertised with 14.9 per cent of the total, followed by Studies of Society and Environment (SOSE), The Arts, Mathematics and Science. Across all KLAs vacancies are more likely to be fixed term. For ongoing vacancies the Mathematics and Science KLAs had the largest numbers, while the English, The Arts and SOSE KLAs all had large number of fixed term vacancies. The Technology KLA was almost equally divided between ongoing and fixed term vacancies. Note: where multiple KLA competency were mentioned they were counted once for each KLA mentioned
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
14
DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES * ¾
Overall, difficult to fill vacancies in Government schools fell from 2001 to 2005 before rising slightly in 2006 and 2007.
FIGURE 12.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES BY SCHOOL TYPE , 2001–07 60.0
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD
The percentage of schools reporting difficulties has fallen from 29.4 per cent in 2001 down to 16.7 per cent in 2007, despite a slight rise from 2005 to 2007. Almost half of all Government secondary schools and half of all Government primary/secondary schools reported difficulties recruiting teaching service staff in 2007, but only 6.3 per cent of Government Primary schools reported difficulties in filling vacancies in 2007. More than 40 per cent of Special schools reported difficulties in filling vacancies in 2007. * These results are based on the annual Teacher Recruitment (Difficulties) census conducted in all Government schools each February. Definition of Difficult to fill vacancies in Appendix p. v
40.0
Per cent
FIGURE 12.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2001–07
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD
Difficult to fill vacancies as a whole fell from 19.0 per cent in 2001 down to 8.3 per cent of vacancies in 2005 with a small increase to 8.9 per cent in 2006 and remaining stable at 8.8 per cent in 2007. Figure 12.2 shows a markedly lower level of difficult to fill teaching vacancies (3.2 per cent) in Government Primary schools for 2007. A total of 12.4 per cent of vacancies in Government Secondary, 17.3 per cent of vacancies in Government Primary/Secondary schools and 20.7 per cent of vacancies in Special schools were difficult to fill in 2007. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
15
DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES (cont.) FIGURE 12.3: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 2001–07 200
FTE of teachers 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
150
100
50
0 The Arts
English
Source: DEECD
Health & Phys Ed
LOTE
Mathematics
Science
SOSE
Technology
The Key Learning Areas (KLAs) of Mathematics, Science and Technology have some of the highest number of difficult to fill vacancies in recent years. Until recently the LOTE KLA also had some of the highest number of difficult to fill vacancies, but has declined as LOTE leads the list of subjects schools can no longer provide due to lack of qualified teachers. Figure 12.3 shows that the highest number of difficult to fill vacancies was for the Mathematics KLA in 2007. GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES ¾
LGAs in the state’s north and west experience more difficulty in filling vacancies. MAP 1: LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS WHERE GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ARE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES (AS A PER CENT OF TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON PAY), 2005–07
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
16
MAP 2: LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS WHERE GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS ARE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO FILL MATHEMATICS VACANCIES (MATHEMATICS VACANCIES PER 100 SECONDARY TEACHERS), 2005–07
DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS * ¾
60.0
Difficult to fill casual relief teacher vacancies in Government schools fell from 2001 to 2005 before rising over the last two years. FIGURE 13.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2001–07
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD CRT Survey
The proportion of schools reporting Difficult to Fill Casual Relief teacher positions decreased slightly from 43.8 per cent in 2001 to 34.2 per cent in 2007, but has risen in the last three years. Figure 13.1 shows that in 2007 Primary/Secondary, Secondary and Special schools were more likely to encounter difficulties in filling casual relief positions in Government schools than other school types. * These results are based on the annual Casual Relief Teacher (CRT) census conducted in all Government schools each August. Definition of CRT recruitment difficulty in Appendix p. vii Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
17
DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS (cont.)
50.0
FIGURE 13.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE, 2001–07
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Primary
Pri/Sec
Secondary
Special
Total
Source: DEECD CRT Survey
Compared with 2001 all school types except Special (which remained almost unchanged) have shown a significant decrease in the proportion of difficult to fill CRT positions. However, since 2005 all Government school types have experienced more difficulty in filling Casual Relief Teacher positions. Figure 13.2 shows that one third of Special school Casual Relief Teacher (CRT) positions in 2007 were difficult to fill. Primary schools have the lowest rate of difficult to fill CRT positions of all school types. BACKGROUND OF CASUAL RELIEF TEACHERS
40.0
FIGURE 13.3: BACKGROUND OF CASUAL RELIEF TEACHERS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS, 2001–07
Per cent
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Retired Teacher
Source: DEECD CRT Survey
Teacher who resigned from permanent teaching/ Prefers CRT work
P/T teacher from school
Leave (Family/LWOP)
Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc.
Other
Figure 13.3 shows that in 2007 the teaching background of more than one quarter of Casual Relief Teachers employed in Government schools was ‘Teachers who resigned from permanent teaching/Prefer CRT work’, and a further quarter were ‘Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc.’. In addition, ‘Retired teachers’ comprised over a fifth of total Casual Relief Teachers and teachers on ‘leave’ almost one tenth.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
18
NEW TEACHING SERVICE EMPLOYMENTS * FIGURE 14: NEW TEACHING SERVICE STAFF EMPLOYED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ON THE BASE SUBDIVISION, 1998–2007 FTE of teachers
3,000
Per cent of total new employees
New Teaching Service Staff on base subdivision (LHS)
100.0
% of total new employments (RHS) 2,400
80.0
1,800
60.0
1,200
40.0
600
20.0
0.0
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: DEECD
New teaching staff employed on the base subdivision for that year is used as a measure of the number of graduate teaching service staff employed in Government schools. Graduate teaching service staff numbers have almost doubled since 1998, increasing by 1,289.2 FTE. Since 2003 Graduates have comprised about four fifths of total new teaching service staff employments. * New teaching service staff are defined as those who have never worked for the Department as a teacher (excluding casual relief teaching)
GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM EMPLOYMENTS ¾ The appointment of teachers under the Graduate Recruitment Program has been growing strongly for the last four years. FIGURE 15.1 GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS TO GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (FTE), 2003–08 1,400
Full time equivalent
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 *
Source: DEECD
Appointments under the Graduate Recruitment Program to Victorian Government schools fell slightly from 2003 to 2004 but have subsequently increased in each year to surpass the previous high of 1,269.8 FTE in 2007 to peak at 1,367.5 FTE in 2008. * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
19
EMPLOYMENT OF GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTEES ¾
Almost 70 per cent of appointments under the Graduate Recruitment program for 2008 are for fixed term positions. FIGURE 15.2: GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY LENGTH OF CONTRACT, 2008 *
70.0
Per cent
60.0 50.0 Metropolitan
Non-metropolitan
40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Less than 1 year
1 year
2 years
3–5 years
6–8 years
Ongoing
Source: DEECD
Of the appointments under the Graduate Recruitment Program for Government schools in 2008 31.2 per cent were for ongoing positions. Over half of all appointments were 1 year contracts. Ongoing appointments to non-metropolitan schools under the program were less common than to metropolitan schools and 65.0 per cent of all appointments to non-metropolitan schools under the program were for 1 year or less. TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS * ¾
Since 2004/05 more than 70 per cent of new appointments to Government schools through the Teaching Scholarship program have been to non-metropolitan schools. FIGURE 16.1: PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY METROPOLITAN/NON-METROPOLITAN AREAS, 2001/02–2007/08*
100.0
Per cent Metropolitan
Non-metropolitan
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0 2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08*
Source: DEECD
Scholarship positions in Victorian Government schools have averaged around 180 since the program began in 2001/02. Of all scholarship positions in 2007/08 (to date) 78.2 per cent were for non-metropolitan schools, similar to the results from 2004/05 and 2005/06. * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008 Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
20
TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS (cont.) FIGURE 16.2: PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SEX, 2001/02–2007/08* 80.0
Per cent Males
Females
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0 2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08*
Source: DEECD
The proportion of teaching scholarships being awarded to male teachers in Government schools has risen from 31.1 per cent in 2001/02 to 48.7 per cent in 2007/08 to date. The percentage of Teaching Scholarships awarded to both males and females has been similar since 2004/05. * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008 Note: from 2004/05 onwards this data includes Career Change Scholarships
FIGURE 16.3: PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 2001/02–2007/08* 40.0
Per cent 2002/03 2005/06
2003/04 2006/07
2004/05 2007/08*
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 The Arts
English
HPE
LOTE
Mathematics
Science
SOSE
Technology
General classroom
Specialist
Source: DEECD
Since 2002/03 there has been a change in the allocation of teaching scholarships in Government schools by KLA. In 2002/03 26.6 per cent of scholarships were awarded to General Classroom teachers and 14.1 per cent to English teachers. In 2007/08 to date, 37.2 per cent of teaching scholarships went to Mathematics teachers and 26.9 per cent to Technology teachers. Scholarships to Science teachers have more than doubled from 6.0 per cent in 2002/03 to 12.8 per cent in 2007/08. The increases in the proportion of teaching scholarships awarded to Mathematics, Technology and Science teachers has been occurring since 2004/05. Note: the criterion for the awarding of teaching scholarships was significantly altered for 2004 resulting in a lower overall numbers of scholarships being awarded to much more tightly defined areas of need. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
21
ATTRITION * RATES ¾ The attrition rate for teaching service staff in the Government sector is forecast to rise, although the rate of growth is forecast to slow. FIGURE 17: ATTRITION* RATES FOR GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, ACTUAL 1995–2006, PROJECTED 2007–11
Per cent
6.0
* Attrition: ongoing teaching service staff who cease from the payroll and are not reemployed as ongoing. Staff on fixed term agreements are excluded.
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 Actual
Projected
1.0
0.0 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: DEECD
The attrition rate for Government teaching service staff has been rising fairly constantly over almost the entire period from 1995 to 2006 as shown in Figure 17 and is projected to continue rising through to 2009 before falling slightly in 2011 due to the ageing workforce. PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS ¾
Student enrolments in all Victorian schools in both primary and secondary are forecast rise over the next 2 years, peaking in 2010 before falling back to below 2008 levels by 2012. FIGURE 18.1: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS, 2008–12
460,000
FTE of students
440,000 Primary
Secondary
420,000
400,000
380,000
360,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Over the period 2008 to 2012 total school enrolments in Victoria are forecast to fall marginally by 0.2 per cent. Figure 18.1 shows little overall change forecast for Primary enrolments over the forecast period 2008 to 2011, with a slight rise from 2008–10 offset by a similar fall from 2010–12. Secondary student enrolments, however, are forecast to remain stable to 2010 and then fall by an overall 0.3 per cent to 2012.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
22
PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS (cont.) FIGURE 18.2: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS, 2008–12 320,000
FTE of students Primary
Secondary
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Government schools are forecast to fall by more than 7,000, or 1.4 per cent, over the period 2008–12. Primary enrolments are forecast to decline in Government schools from 2010 while Government Secondary enrolments are forecast to fall from 2008. As Figure 18.2 shows the overall decline in student enrolments is the result of a 2.5 per cent fall in secondary enrolments and a 0.6 per cent drop in primary enrolments over the forecast period.
FIGURE 18.3: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS, 2008–12 100,000
FTE of students
95,000 Primary Secondary 90,000
85,000
80,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Catholic schools are forecast to rise slightly over the period 2008–12, with increases in both primary and secondary enrolments. The main increase is a 1.0 per cent forecast rise in primary enrolments. Secondary enrolments are forecast to increase 0.3 per cent over the period, although there is a slight decline from 2010–12, offsetting much of the increase from 2008–10.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
23
PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS (cont.) FIGURE 18.4: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS, 2008–12 85,000
FTE of students Primary
Secondary
75,000
65,000
55,000
45,000
35,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEECD
Total student enrolments in Independent schools are forecast to increase by 4.1 per cent over the period 2008–12, in contrast to the slight increase in the Catholic sector and decline in the Government sector. Independent student enrolments are forecast to rise (1.4 per cent) in primary schools and rise considerably in secondary schools (5.7 per cent). The decline in secondary enrolments forecast for both the Government and Catholic sectors from 2010 has not been forecast for the Independent sector. PROJECTED TEACHER NUMBERS * ¾ New teaching staff requirements are forecast to rise slightly in 2008 before falling through to the end of the forecast period with secondary teachers the most in demand. FIGURE 19.1: PROJECTED NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS, 2007–11 3,600
Number of teachers
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: DEECD
Totalling the projected number of new teachers required per year and dividing by the number of projection years results in approximately 3,290 new teachers (number) being required (on average) each year, across all Victorian schools over the five years to 2011 to cover increases in student enrolments, teacher retirements and resignations, teachers taking leave and policy initiatives. * Projected at October 2007 Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
24
PROJECTED TEACHER NUMBERS (cont.)
2,200
FIGURE 19.2: PROJECTED NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY LEVEL, 2007–11
Number of teachers
Primary
Secondary
1,800
1,400
1,000 Source: DEECD
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
As Figure 19.2 illustrates the number of new primary teachers required will rise somewhat from 2007 to 2010 before falling slightly in 2011. In contrast the number of new secondary teachers required will fall steadily across the forecast period to 2011.
3,500
FIGURE 19.3: PROJECTED NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY SECTOR, 2007–11
Number of teachers
Average 2007–11: 3,290
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 2007 Source: DEECD
2008
2009 Government
2010 Non-Government
2011
Over the five years to 2011 both Government and non-government schools will see the number of new teachers increasing through to 2008 before falling back to 2011. Government schools will require a projected average of 2,080 new teachers over the five years while non-government school will require 1,210 on average.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
25
SUPPLY The following section provides information relating to teacher supply in Victoria. Data is presented on applications, offers and acceptances for pre-service teacher education courses, enrolments in those courses, ENTER score trends, forecasts of graduate supply and destinations of teaching graduates.
Summary Reduced demand for teachers during the mid 1990s has resulted in a situation where enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses have just returned to levels above the 1991 level. This is not due to a lack of applications as applications for both under- and postgraduate pre-service teacher education courses are consistently higher than offers. The trend towards enrolment in shorter postgraduate teacher education courses and away from the four-year integrated courses has resulted in an increasing number of graduates becoming available to teach in a shorter timeframe, but a lower proportion of these post-graduate students actually go on to teach in schools. Overall, graduate teacher numbers from Victorian pre-service teacher education are forecast to rise over the forecast period 2007–11, due mainly to the increase in primary and primary/secondary graduate teachers offsetting a decline in the secondary graduate teacher supply. Estimates of graduate teacher supply over the five years to 2011 indicate that approximately 3,360 teachers will be available each year to teach in schools (i.e. 80 per cent of the total number of graduating students).
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
26
APPLICATIONS AND OFFERS FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES ¾
First preference applications for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses have fallen from the 2003/04 peak, while the number of offers remains high.
FIGURE 20.1: NUMBER OF STUDENTS APPLYING FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1989/90–2006/07 7,500
Number of applicants Undergraduate 1st preference
Postgraduate
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0 1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Source: VIT, VTAC
The overall number of students applying for pre-service teacher education courses has risen slightly in 2006/07 from 2005/06. After dropping down to 2,463 in 1993/94 the number of undergraduate first preference applicants peaked at 6,420 in 2003/04 before falling back to 6,122 in 2006/07. Since the series began in 1998/99 the number of postgraduate applicants grew from 2,353 in 1998/99 to 5,729 in 2003/04 but have since fallen back to 4,045 in 2006/07. FIGURE 20.2: NUMBER OF OFFERS FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1989/90–2006/07 4,000
Number of places
3,000
2,000
Undergraduate
Postgraduate
1,000
0 1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Source: VIT, VTAC
Postgraduate offers grew rapidly from 1999/00 to 2004/05 and were at a similar level to undergraduate offers, but have fallen back over the last two years. In contrast to applications, the number of offers for undergraduate pre-service teacher education students each year trended downwards from 1994/95 to 2001/02, but has risen sharply since to be at the highest point in 2006/07 since the series began in 1989/90.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
27
APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES ¾
While applications for Victorian pre-service teacher education courses rise steadily for both under- and postgraduate students, the number of offers and acceptances has risen only for postgraduate students.
FIGURE 20.3: APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR VICTORIAN UNDERGRADUATE PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999/00–2006/07 7,500
Number of places Applications
Offers
Acceptances
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
41.2%
35.1%
25.5%
27.6%
28.3%
40.1%
41.6%
42.7%
0 1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Source: VIT, VTAC
The number of students applying for undergraduate pre-service teacher education courses has grown by almost 40 per cent from 1990/00 to 2006/07, while the number of acceptances has grown since 2001/02, despite a small decline in 2005/06. Despite the drop in applications over the last few years, the proportion of applications resulting in an acceptance in 2006/07 is higher than the 1999/00 level. In 2006/07 61.3 per cent of applications resulted in an offer and 69.7 per cent of these offers were accepted. FIGURE 20.4: APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR VICTORIAN POSTGRADUATE PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999/00–2006/07 6,000
Number of places Applications
Offers
Acceptances
4,500
3,000
1,500
41.9%
52.1%
45.2%
33.9%
34.5%
46.5%
53.0%
56.6%
0 1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Source: VIT, VTAC
The number of students applying for postgraduate pre-service teacher education courses grew from 1999/2000 to 2003/04 before falling over the last few years. The number of acceptances has almost doubled over the period 1990/00 to 2006/07. Despite the drop in applications from 2003/04 to 2006/07, the proportion of applications resulting in an acceptance is now well over half. In 2006/07 83.7 per cent of applications resulted in an offer and 67.6 per cent of these offers were accepted. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
28
ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES ¾
Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses continue to grow. FIGURE 21.1: FIRST YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1990–2007
6,000
FTE of students
Undergraduate
Postgraduate
4,500
3,000
1,500
0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The most significant change in first year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education programs has been the growth in postgraduate courses. Since 1990 postgraduate enrolments have grown from just over one quarter of total enrolments to almost half. With the rise in postgraduate enrolments, total enrolments are more than 20 per cent higher than in 1990.
FIGURE 21.2: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1997–2007
5,000
FTE of students
Undergraduate
Postgraduates
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The growth in postgraduate courses is even more noticeable in the final year pre-service teacher education enrolments. Figure 21.2 shows undergraduate enrolments grew by more than 60 per cent from 1997 to 2007, but the 2007 figure for final year postgraduate enrolments is more than two-anda-half times that of the 1997 figure.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
29
FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) ¾
Comparing final year enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses in 1996 with 2007 there has been an increase in all Key Learning Areas except LOTE.
FIGURE 22.1: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 1997–2007 Number of students
700
LOTE
Mathematics
Health & Physical Education
Technology
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
FIGURE 22.2: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA, 1997–2007 1,200
Number of students
1,000
800
600
400
200 SOSE 0 1997
1998
1999
2000
English 2001
2002
The Arts 2003
Science 2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The growth in enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses by Key Learning Area (KLA) over the period 1997 to 2007 has been very variable. Enrolments have increased in all KLAs since 1997, with the increases ranging from about 15 per cent for LOTE to almost 300 per cent in Technology. The KLAs of Technology, LOTE, SOSE and English all experienced a fall from 2006 to 2007 while The Arts KLA remained almost unchanged. Note: the number of students by KLA is approximately twice that of student enrolments as the majority of intending teachers prepare to teach two subject areas
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
30
FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES FOR SELECTED SOSE SUBJECTS (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) FIGURE 22.3: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY SELECTED SOSE SUBJECTS, 1997–2007 600
Number of students
500
400 SOSE
History
300
200
100
0 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
Figure 22.3 illustrates individual subjects within the SOSE KLA. Final year enrolments in the SOSE KLA fell sharply from 2006 to 2007 due entirely to a 20.4 per cent drop in enrolments in the subject SOSE to the lowest point since 2000, while History enrolments increased by 0.5 per cent and are at the highest level since the series began.
AVERAGE ENTER SCORE FOR UNDERGRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES IN VICTORIA FIGURE 23: AVERAGE ENTER SCORE FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1998–2007 80.0
Average ENTER score Average ENTER score
Series average
76.0
72.0
68.0
64.0
60.0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT, VTAC
Average ENTER scores have increased from 66.5 in 1998 to 70.0 in 2007, although they have fallen since the peak of 76.9 in 2003. The series average is 72.9.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
31
FORECAST GRADUATE SUPPLY * ¾
The supply of Graduate teachers from Victorian pre-service education courses is forecast to fall slightly and then rise through to 2011. FIGURE 24.1: PROJECTED * GRADUATE TEACHER SUPPLY FROM VICTORIAN PRESERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 2007–11
3,700
Number of teachers Note: Calculated on the basis of 80% of total teacher graduates form Victorian preservice education courses being available to teach
3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 Source: VIT
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
FIGURE 24.2: PROJECTED * GRADUATE TEACHER SUPPLY FROM VICTORIAN PRESERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY LEVEL, 2007–11 2,400
Number of teachers Note: Calculated on the basis of 80% of total teacher graduates form Victorian pre-service education courses being available to teach
Primary & Pri/Sec
Secondary
2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Source: VIT
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Graduate teacher numbers from Victorian pre-service teacher education courses are forecast to rise by 11.5 per cent over the five-year period shown in Figure 24.1. This overall increase is comprised of a 22.4 per cent increase in primary and primary/secondary graduate teachers offset by a 3.0 per cent fall in secondary graduate teacher supply. Estimates of graduate teacher supply over the five years to 2011 indicate that approximately 3,360 teachers will be available each year to teach in schools (i.e. 80% of the total number of graduating students). * Forecast at October 2007
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
32
ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY GENDER ¾
Enrolments in Victorian pre-service teacher education courses continue to be predominantly by females. However the proportion of males in post-graduate pre-service teacher education courses is higher than for undergraduate courses.
FIGURE 25.1: PERCENTAGE OF MALES IN FIRST YEAR PRIMARY AND PRIMARY/SECONDARY VICTORIAN PRESERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999–2007 Per cent
26.0
undergraduate
postgraduate
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
Males comprise around one fifth of first year pre-service teacher education enrolments in Primary and Primary/Secondary courses. Since 2005 the proportion of male postgraduate students has been consistently higher than the 1999 level. The proportion of male undergraduate students has fluctuated around the 20 per cent level without significant change. FIGURE 25.2: PERCENTAGE OF MALES IN FIRST YEAR SECONDARY VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES, 1999–2007 41.0
Per cent
37.0
33.0
29.0 undergraduate
postgraduate
25.0
21.0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: VIT
The proportion of male enrolments in first year secondary pre-service teacher education courses is almost double that for primary and primary/secondary pre-service teacher education courses and has been rising since 1999. Males comprise almost two fifths of first year pre-service teacher education enrolments in Secondary courses. The proportion of male postgraduate pre-service secondary teacher enrolments has fluctuated around 38 per cent for the last few years. The proportion of male undergraduates in 2007 was only 2.9 percentage points lower than that for postgraduates. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
33
GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM VICTORIAN TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS ¾
Graduates from undergraduate teacher education programs are more likely to become teachers than graduates from postgraduate programs. FIGURE 26.1: GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM VICTORIAN UNDERGRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, 2006 (PER CENT) 18.2%
Secondary Teacher
11.5%
Primary Teacher
Special Education Teachers
10.3%
1.6% 58.3%
Other education (Pre-Primary, Universty lecturer / Tutor, unspecified) Other employment
Source: Graduate Careers Council of Australia
Over three quarters of 2006 graduates from Victorian undergraduate teacher education programs became teachers, with 58.3 per cent of the total becoming primary teachers. A total of 11.5 per cent of graduates enter other forms of employment. FIGURE 26.2: GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM VICTORIAN POSTGRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, 2006 (PER CENT) 17.2% 11.6% Secondary Teacher 2.8% Primary Teacher 16.1% Special Education Teachers
Other education (Pre-Primary, Universty lecturer / Tutor, unspecified) Other employment 52.3% Source: Graduate Careers Council of Australia
Less than three quarters of 2006 graduates from Victorian postgraduate teacher education programs became teachers, with 52.3 per cent of the total becoming secondary teachers. A total of 17.2 per cent of 2006 graduates from postgraduate teacher education programs went onto other employment. Postgraduate programs provide a quicker response to changes in teacher demand. However, graduates from undergraduate teacher education programs are more likely to become teachers than graduates from postgraduate programs. This factor combined with the continued growth in postgraduate teacher education courses may create a dilemma in terms of future supply. Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
34
CONCLUSION FIGURE 27.1: PROJECTED PRIMARY & PRIMARY/SECONDARY TEACHER DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NEW TEACHER GRADUATE TEACHERS, 2007–11 2,400
Number of teachers
2,200
2,000 Surplus Primary-trained teachers
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
Demand for teachers (forecast at Dec. 2007)
1,000 2007 Source: DEECD
2008
Supply of graduate teachers (forecast at Oct. 2007)
2009
2010
2011
FIGURE 27.2: PROJECTED SECONDARY TEACHER DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NEW TEACHER GRADUATE TEACHERS, 2007–11 2,200
Number of teachers
Probable sources of non-Victorian graduate secondary teachers 2,000
1,800
1,600
Registered teachers not currently teaching
Interstate teachers
Overseas teachers
CRT pool
1,400
1,200 Supply of graduate teachers (forecast at Oct. 2007) 1,000 2007 Source: DEECD
2008
2009
Demand for teachers (forecast at Dec. 2007)
2010
2011
The estimated supply of teacher graduates is showing a forecast surplus of primary and primary/secondary trained teachers and a shortfall of secondary trained teachers. Subtracting the total projected number of new secondary teachers required over the projection period from the projected supply of new secondary teachers over the same period and dividing by the number of projection years results in the need to recruit an additional 470 secondary teachers on average each year to staff Government and non-government schools from interstate and overseas, previous years’ graduates not working in the profession and from former teachers wishing to rejoin the profession.
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
35
TABLE 1.1: TOTAL STUDENTS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA (FTE)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Government Catholic Independent
517,883
519,539
522,493
526,197
529,703
533,894
535,204
537,147
537,971
538,261
537,646
176,133
177,355
178,239
178,728
179,398
179,979
180,493
179,811
179,844
180,676
182,404
83,353
85,699
87,866
91,228
94,368
97,365
100,935
104,202
106,466
108,907
111,577
Total
777,368
782,593
788,598
796,152
803,469
811,238
816,633
821,160
824,281
827,843
831,627
Source: DEECD
TABLE 1.2: TOTAL TEACHERS BY SECTOR IN VICTORIA (FTE)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Government Catholic Independent
34,045
34,154
33,763
35,156
35,660
36,304
36,816
37,665
37,783
38,141
38,608
10,432
10,415
10,494
10,784
11,045
11,222
11,462
11,637
11,717
11,912
12,225
6,863
7,014
7,136
7,419
7,785
8,149
8,528
8,908
9,348
9,695
10,020
Total
51,340
51,582
51,393
53,359
54,490
55,675
56,806
58,209
58,848
59,748
60,853
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ABS
TABLE 2.1: PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR
1996 Government Catholic Independent Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
63.5
64.6
65.1
66.1
67.0
67.9
68.4
68.6
68.9
69.3
69.5
69.6
69.3
69.3
69.6
69.8
70.4
70.1
69.9
70.0
70.1
70.0
59.6
60.3
60.3
60.9
61.5
61.8
62.2
62.1
62.5
62.7
63.2
64.2
65.0
65.3
66.1
66.8
67.5
67.8
67.9
68.1
68.4
68.5
Source: ABS
TABLE 2.2: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT FEMALE TEACHING SERVICE STAFF
1997 1998 Total Teaching Service 64.1 64.9 Teacher class 68.7 69.5 Leading Teacher 55.3 56.0 Principal class 33.3 34.6 NB Teacher Class includes Instructors
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
65.9
66.9
67.6
68.3
68.6
68.9
69.4
69.6
69.9
70.4
71.1
71.8
72.1
72.1
72.1
72.2
72.2
72.3
56.8
57.9
58.8
59.2
60.2
61.1
62.7
63.1
63.8
36.1
38.3
40.7
42.7
44.3
45.6
47.3
49.0
50.9
Source: DEECD
TABLE 3: AGE PROFILE OF TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR AND SEX (NUMBER), 2007
Government Age group Males Females 20–24 382 1,669 25–29 1,457 4,811 30–34 1,369 3,601 35–39 1,147 2,980 40–44 1,254 3,676 45–49 1,984 5,130 50–54 3,035 7,075 55–59 1,659 3,397 60–64 516 989 65 plus 92 150 Total 12,895 33,478 NB only staff registered with the VIT are included
Catholic Males
Females
Independent Males Females
111
537
108
320
419
1,538
366
1,005
477
1,304
582
1,073
567
1,463
597
1,088
577
1,572
563
1,114
742
1,837
641
1,264
613
1,656
642
1,211
387
1,099
566
884
216
524
315
418
72
141
86
97
4,181
11,671
4,466
8,474
Source: VIT
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
i
TABLE 3.3: AGE PROFILE OF TEACHING SERVICE STAFF BY SECTOR (NUMBER)
Age group 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
1997 Government Catholic
2002 Government
2007 Catholic
Government
Catholic
962
215
2,022
500
2,149
692
2,405
1,654
3,780
1,343
5,888
1,714
3,369
1,963
3,166
1,717
4,180
1,456
5,475
1,895
3,750
1,678
3,536
1,719
9,633
2,138
6,473
2,220
4,585
1,985
8,314
1,693
10,245
2,253
6,957
2,457
5,385
1,293
8,215
1,589
9,997
2,112
1,405
774
2,780
981
4,885
1,290
270
274
625
382
1,468
578
21
88
83
72
229
131
37,239
11,987
41,139
12,735
43,874
14,134
Source: DEECD, CEC
TABLE 3.5: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT PRINCIPAL CLASS STAFF (NUMBER)
Age group 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
1997
2002
2007
-
-
-
6
8
2
30
21
45
113
71
115
586
336
192
906
946
590
939
1,087
1,263
177
310
559
12
50
125
3
4
14
2,772
2,833
2,905
Source: DEECD
TABLE 4.1: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF IN SURVEY – MATHEMATICS (NUMBER)
Under 25 1995 2006
25–29
30–34
35–39
8
58
96
122
40–44 177
45–49 151
50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total 67
13
1
1
694
52
150
119
139
200
277
363
157
43
5
1,505
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey 2006
TABLE 4.2: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF IN SURVEY – SCIENCE (NUMBER)
Under 25 1995 2006
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
6
43
88
95
109
79
42
4
1
-
467
37
100
88
72
106
116
116
51
16
2
704
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey 2006
TABLE 4.3: AGE PROFILE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF IN SURVEY – PHYSICAL EDUCATION (NUMBER)
Under 25 1995 2006
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54 55–59 60–64 65 plus Total
15
46
57
65
51
21
20
4
-
-
279
57
114
72
41
62
79
45
12
1
-
483
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey 2006
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
ii
TABLE 4.4: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF AGED 50 YEARS AND OVER IN SURVEY
Metal technology Electronics Wood technology Clothing & Textiles Tech. studies – General Home economics LOTE French Accounting Food tech. & Catering Mathematics – VCE
2002
2004
2006
47.0
49.1
58.5
44.9
58.3
54.0
50.0
48.2
49.6
35.3
44.8
47.5
35.1
39.9
46.9
28.7
33.7
46.9
49.3
55.4
46.5
40.9
48.8
45.6
33.3
43.3
43.9
33.4
37.3
43.4
Source: DEECD Forecasting Teacher Demand by Subject Survey
TABLE 5: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON FIXED TERM AGREEMENTS
% of TS June 1996 September 1996 December 1996 March 1997 June 1997 September 1997 December 1997 March 1998 June 1998 September 1998 December 1998 April 1999 June 1999 September 1999 December 1999
% of TS March 2000 June 2000 September 2000 December 2000 March 2001 June 2001 September 2001 December 2001 March 2002 June 2002 September 2002 December 2002 March 2003 June 2003 September 2003
7.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 11.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 13.9 15.6 15.1 16.9 18.4 19.6 18.1
19.2 17.3 17.4 12.8 14.2 15.5 16.5 13.7 15.4 16.6 17.7 14.9 17.1 17.9 19.2
% of TS December 2003 March 2004 June 2004 September 2004 December 2004 March 2005 June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007
16.0 17.1 18.4 18.1 15.0 15.8 17.0 16.9 17.0 15.5 16.8 17.6 17.9 17.3 18.5
Source: DEECD
TABLE 6.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF WORKING PART TIME
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
13.7
14.5
15.5
16.5
16.9
17.5
18.4
18.9
19.4
19.9
20.1
20.4
Source: DEECD
TABLE 6.2: PERCENTAGE OF CATHOLIC TEACHING SERVICE STAFF WORKING PART TIME
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
22.2
22.2
23.3
22.9
25.1
25.7
26.5
27.0
27.9
28.1
28.4
Source: CEC
TABLE 7: SICK AND CARER’S LEAVE DAYS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF, PER 1,000 STAFF (NUMBER)
Sick leave with a certificate Sick leave w/o a certificate Carer's leave
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5,621
5,602
5,280
5,260
5,300
5,411
5,473
5,558
5,598
5,596
5,718
2,257
2,171
2,173
2,197
2,200
2,237
2,283
2,304
2,340
2,269
2,264
-
-
-
368
400
437
494
531
545
588
669
Source: DEECD
TABLE 8: LONG SERVICE LEAVE USAGE BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF (FTE TAKEN)
1996 Principal class Teacher class
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
319.0
441.0
448.6
446.0
556.0
595.9
646.1
669.7
777.5
879.4
901.8
2,913.4
3,630.9
4,148.0
4,269.9
5,001.9
4,931.4
5,126.7
5,108.7
5,613.4
6,522.4
7025.7
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
iii
TABLE 9: GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF ON LEAVE WITHOUT PAY (LWOP) (FTE)
Total LWOP
Family Leave
5,804.7
3,137.4
5,127.1
2,721.8
4,085.5
2,344.9
3,682.6
2,024.8
3,286.4
1,782.1
3,162.4
1,643.0
3,069.3
1,581.3
3,101.4
1,550.1
3,336.8
1,649.1
3,478.6
1,715.1
3,411.7
1,786.5
3,444.4
1,905.1
3,679.6
2,031.6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: DEECD
TABLE 10: STANDARD WORKCOVER CLAIMS BY GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF (RATE)
Standard claims
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
15.8
12.2
14.5
15.7
14.9
16.5
18.2
17.2
15.1
13.8
14.9
Source: DEECD
TABLE 11.1: VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SCHOOL TYPE (NUMBER)
Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6,251
4,636
4,600
4,764
4,169
5,026
3,559
2007 4,629
393
323
477
513
461
831
866
1,151
3,662
3,296
3,946
4,210
4,048
6,107
6,550
7,561
-
-
-
-
-
550
656
687
10,306
8,255
9,024
9,487
8,678
12,514
11,631
14,028
Source: DEECD
TABLE 11.3: VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE (NUMBER)
Ongoing Fixed term Ongoing Secondary Fixed term Total Primary
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,643
1,053
1,159
945
748
4,730
3,683
3,598
3,988
3,574
1,246
1,214
1,787
1,148
1,226
2,687
2,305
2,480
3,407
3,130
10,306
8,255
9,024
9,487
8,678
Source: DEECD
TABLE 11.5: VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE (NUMBER)
Ongoing Primary Fixed term Ongoing Pri/Sec Fixed term Ongoing Secondary Fixed term Ongoing Special Fixed term Total
2005
2006
590
615
2007 762
4,436
2,944
3,867 406
98
340
733
526
745
1,380
2,656
2,652
4,727
3,894
4,909
65
111
85
485
545
602
12,514
11,631
14,028
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
iv
TABLE 11.7: SECONDARY VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA (NUMBER)
2007 Fixed term
The Arts English Health & Physical Education LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology Curriculum Support Specialist Remedial Special Total
Ongoing
Total
668
289
957
669
360
1,029
438
273
711
162
118
280
512
430
942
499
401
900
657
339
996
340
320
660
282
43
325
73
12
85
30
6
36
4,330
2,591
6,921
Source: DEECD
DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES: Difficulty was defined as ‘No suitable, qualified applicants were provided through
either the Graduate Recruitment program, Teacher Scholarship scheme, Career Change program or Recruitment Online’. TABLE 12.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULTIES IN RECRUITING TEACHING STAFF BY SCHOOL TYPE
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Total
21.7
47.6
59.4
37.2
29.4
18.0
50.0
50.0
40.7
25.4
12.7
50.0
50.7
35.0
21.3
8.2
35.4
44.4
25.6
15.9
6.6
42.9
44.2
28.0
15.1
6.8
38.5
45.7
36.3
15.8
6.3
50.0
49.6
42.5
16.7
Source: DEECD
TABLE 12.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (PER CENT OF TOTAL VACANCIES IN SCHOOL TYPE)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Total
13.7
17.5
25.3
36.4
19.0
10.6
16.4
16.9
26.2
13.9
5.6
16.7
15.5
20.2
10.8
3.7
12.6
13.4
14.5
8.5
3.2
18.1
12.4
13.0
8.3
4.1
12.8
12.6
19.5
8.9
3.2
17.3
12.4
20.7
8.8
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
v
TABLE 12.3: DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA (FTE)
Key Learning Area The Arts English Health & Phys Ed LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology General Classroom Specialist teachers All Subjects
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
67.8
43.2
49.7
31.9
27.6
28.1
24.8
41.5
39.8
34.8
19.2
32.4
17.9
40.9
44.6
42.3
56.5
23.0
31.8
16.8
15.3
162.1
90.0
90.5
71.4
58.5
56.4
33.7
81.5
61.0
68.7
55.0
69.3
76.5
99.8
68.6
36.9
41.3
31.2
28.5
39.4
51.1
15.3
19.7
20.3
13.6
13.2
12.0
6.3
91.1
71.1
59.8
66.7
43.7
62.9
59.2
203.6
204.3
104.8
51.8
55.7
67.4
53.1
102.1
76.1
51.9
36.0
40.8
62.1
70.0
878.2
684.4
578.1
399.8
401.5
439.5
454.2
Source: DEECD
MAP 1 DATA: GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL VACANCIES (DFVs) IN EACH YEAR FROM 2005–07 BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA (TOTAL FTE OF DFVs AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL FTE OF TEACHING STAFF)
Local Government Area West Wimmera (S) Buloke (S) Hindmarsh (S) Pyrenees (S) Mildura (RC) Mitchell (S) Gannawarra (S) Towong (S) Northern Grampians (S) Moira (S) Glenelg (S) Wellington (S) Ararat (RC) Loddon (S) Colac-Otway (S)
DFVs per 100 staff 7.39 5.82 5.17 3.78 3.40 3.34 3.30 3.29 3.21 3.14 2.77 2.75 2.72 2.37 2.35
Source: DEECD
MAP 2 DATA: GOVERNMENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL MATHEMATICS VACANCIES IN EACH YEAR FROM 2005–07 BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA (TOTAL FTE OF MATHEMATICS DFVs AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL FTE OF SECONDARY TEACHING STAFF)
Local Government Area Bass Coast (S) Towong (S) Hindmarsh (S) Colac-Otway (S) Wellington (RC) Moira (S) Greater Shepparton (C) East Gippsland (S) Macedon Ranges (S) Mitchell (S) Cardinia (S) Mildura (RC) Swan Hill (RC) Warrnambool (C) Alpine (S)
DFVs per 100 staff 2.05 1.58 1.53 1.45 1.37 1.34 1.21 1.18 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.00 0.96 0.93 0.75
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
vi
DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS: Difficulty was defined as having to make more than
three phone calls or had to go to more than one source in attempting to obtain a CRT. TABLE 13.1: PERCENTAGE OF GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS REPORTING DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER (CRT) POSITIONS BY SCHOOL TYPE
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Language
Total
43.0
53.5
47.3
40.5
25.0
43.8
32.7
51.1
49.8
53.2
50.0
36.6
25.8
34.1
36.1
35.9
25.0
28.2
17.2
40.9
36.7
38.8
50.0
22.2
20.9
39.2
35.8
44.9
-
25.0
25.7
55.3
36.7
47.4
50.0
29.5
29.9
43.1
48.1
46.3
75.0
34.2
Source: DEECD Casual Relief Teacher Survey
TABLE 13.2: DIFFICULT TO FILL CASUAL RELIEF TEACHER POSITIONS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (PER CENT OF CRTs EMPLOYED IN SCHOOL TYPE)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Primary
Primary/Secondary
Secondary
Special
Language
Total
31.0
48.6
39.9
33.9
15.8
33.6
22.4
50.0
35.8
39.5
25.0
27.2
17.0
24.3
20.6
25.1
20.0
18.4
12.4
22.2
23.7
36.6
28.0
16.8
12.9
26.1
19.2
22.7
-
15.5
15.1
32.2
19.7
32.2
34.2
17.9
21.0
21.8
24.3
33.7
42.1
22.6
Source: DEECD Casual Relief Teacher Survey
TABLE 13.3: BACKGROUND OF CASUAL RELIEF TEACHERS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (PER CENT)
Retired teacher 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Resigned/Prefers CRT work
Part time from your school
Family leave/ Unemployed/Seeking LWOP employment etc.
Other
15.9
36.6
7.7
9.6
12.9
17.3
18.8
30.1
6.9
9.1
23.5
11.6
19.5
29.6
6.0
9.3
25.0
10.6
18.4
26.9
6.9
9.2
27.6
11.1
19.8
26.0
6.7
8.6
27.8
11.0
21.8
26.3
6.2
9.9
24.8
11.0
21.2
27.7
6.0
8.6
26.1
10.5
Source: DEECD Casual Relief Teacher Survey
TABLE 14: NEW TEACHING SERVICE STAFF EMPLOYED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ON BASE SUBDIVISION
FTE 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
% of Total New Teaching Staff
1,437.4
74.4
1,167.3
62.3
1,630.9
69.1
1,733.9
69.2
2,053.7
74.3
2,334.5
79.3
2,128.8
78.5
2,441.3
81.1
2,471.1
80.8
2,726.6
80.4
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
vii
TABLE 15.1: GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS TO GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS
Number 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
FTE
514
511.9
451
448.1
587
582.4
979
970.3
1,298
1,269.8
1,386
1,367.5
Source: DEECD * Not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008
TABLE 15.2: GRADUATE RECRUITMENT PROGRAM APPOINTMENTS BY LENGTH OF CONTRACT 2008*
Metropolitan No.
Less than 1 year 1 year 2 years 3–5 years 6–8 years Ongoing Total
Non-metropolitan
Per cent
No.
Total Per cent
5
0.6
5
1.0
10
460
51.1
310
63.9
770
49
5.4
31
6.4
80
28
3.1
10
2.1
38
45
5.0
11
2.3
56
314
34.9
118
24.3
432
901
100.0
485
100.0
1,386
Source: DEECD
TABLE 16.1: NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY METROPOLITAN/NON-METROPOLITAN LOCATION
Metropolitan 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08*
Non-metropolitan
Total
No.
%
No.
%
99
59.3
68
40.7
167
127
51.2
121
48.8
248
102
47.0
115
53.0
217
37
20.8
141
79.2
178
35
19.2
147
80.8
182
53
29.1
129
70.8
182
17
21.8
61
78.2
78
Source: DEECD
TABLE 16.2: NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY SEX
Males 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08*
Females
Total
No.
%
No.
%
52
31.1
115
68.9
167
92
37.1
156
62.9
248
79
36.4
138
63.6
217
85
47.8
93
52.2
178
82
45.1
100
54.9
182
84
46.2
98
53.8
182
38
48.7
40
41.3
78
Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
viii
TABLE 16.3: NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF TEACHING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS BY KEY LEARNING AREA
2002/03 Key Learning Area The Arts English Health & Phys Ed LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology General Classroom Specialist teachers ACSS – Library All Subjects
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08*
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
No.
%
18
7.3
12
5.5
8
4.5
13
7.1
14
7.7
5
6.4
35
14.1
16
7.4
8
4.5
11
6.0
11
6.0
8
10.2
13
5.2
30
13.8
29
16.3
16
8.8
12
6.6
2
2.6
11
4.4
19
8.8
10
5.6
22
12.1
10
5.5
-
-
44
17.7
26
12.0
57
32.0
57
31.3
54
29.7
29
37.2
15
6.0
29
13.4
5
2.8
4
2.2
18
9.9
10
12.8
10
4.0
12
5.5
9
5.1
5
2.7
7
3.8
1
1.3
35
14.1
19
8.8
41
23.0
36
19.8
43
23.6
21
26.9
66
26.6
49
22.6
9
5.1
15
8.2
10
5.5
1
1.3
1
0.4
5
2.3
2
1.1
3
1.6
1
0.5
1
1.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
1.1
-
-
248
100.0
217
100.0
178
100.0
182
100.0
182
100.0
78
100.0
Source: DEECD
* not including vacancies yet to be finalised as at 18 Jan 2008
TABLE 17: ATTRITION RATE FOR GOVERNMENT TEACHING SERVICE STAFF (PER CENT)
1995 1.3
Projected as at 2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.6
3.1
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.8
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.4
Source: DEECD
TABLE 18: PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLMENTS BY LEVEL AND SECTOR (FTE)
Government 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Primary Catholic Independent
Total
Government
Secondary Catholic Independent
Total
305,383
98,459
43,820
447,662
223,633
86,512
72,408
382,554
305,439
98,754
44,046
448,239
222,385
86,836
73,729
382,950
305,414
99,168
44,321
448,903
221,153
87,110
74,938
383,201
304,793
99,401
44,376
448,570
219,225
86,974
75,892
382,090
303,596
99,425
44,445
447,466
217,981
86,771
76,565
381,317
Source: DEECD
TABLE 19.1: PROJECTED (2007) NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY LEVEL (NUMBER)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Primary
Secondary
Total
1,380
2,030
3,410
1,430
2,000
3,430
1,540
1,750
3,290
1,570
1,710
3,280
1,490
1,560
3,050
Source: DEECD
TABLE 19.3: PROJECTED (2007) NEW TEACHERS REQUIRED IN VICTORIAN SCHOOLS BY SECTOR (NUMBER)
Government
Non-government
Total
2,050
1,360
3,410
2,140
1,290
3,430
2,120
1,170
3,290
2,110
1,170
3,280
1,980
1,070
3,050
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: DEECD
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
ix
TABLE 20: APPLICATIONS, OFFERS AND ACCEPTANCES FOR PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (NUMBER)
Undergraduate 1st Preference Applications to VTAC Offers 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Postgraduate Acceptances of offers Applications to VTAC Offers
Acceptances of offers
4,563
3,557
-
-
-
-
4,805
3,646
-
-
-
-
5,478
2,587
-
-
-
-
5,054
2,564
-
-
-
-
2,463
2,256
-
-
-
-
3,380
2,924
-
-
-
-
3,524
2,927
-
-
-
-
3,211
2,702
-
-
-
-
3,624
2,694
-
-
-
-
4,090
2,311
-
2,353
-
-
4,390
2,478
1,810
2,601
2,114
1,090
4,972
2,401
1,747
3,442
2,585
1,795
5,617
2,208
1,430
4,644
2,903
2,098
6,122
2,318
1,688
5,465
2,940
1,852
6,420
2,510
1,816
5,729
3,200
1,976
6,331
3,483
2,541
4,859
3,529
2,260
5,890
3,398
2,453
4,206
3,358
2,228
6,122
3,750
2,613
4,045
3,385
2,289
Source: VIT, VTAC
TABLE 21.1: FIRST YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (FTE)
Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
3,508
3,746
2,866
2,378
2,043
1,969
2,130
2,247
2,360
2,028
1,214
1,380
1,131
1,074
959
952
1,002
1,236
1,502
1,687
4,722
5,126
3,997
3,452
3,002
2,921
3,132
3,483
3,862
3,715
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,082
2,191
2,088
2,058
2,160
2,653
2,661
2,958
1,760
2,001
2,395
2,271
2,670
2,792
2,698
2,753
3,842
4,192
4,483
4,329
4,831
5,445
5,630
5,711
Source: VIT
TABLE 21.2: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (FTE)
Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1,122
1,227
1,325
1,299
1,552
1,537
1,679
1,702
1,781
1,754
1,816
1,078
1,358
1,507
1,632
1,936
2,309
2,343
2,607
2,692
2,735
2,653
2,200
2,585
2,831
2,930
3,488
3,845
4,022
4,309
4,473
4,489
4,469
Source: VIT
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
x
TABLE 22.1: FINAL YEAR ENROLMENTS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY KEY LEARNING AREA (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) (NUMBER)
The Arts English Health & Physical Education LOTE Mathematics Science SOSE Technology (Library etc.) Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
342
363
430
510
499
694
511
692
382
464
620
540
490
705
671
713
324
408
433
488
442
445
553
134
158
162
123
152
199
117
130
185
179
173
257
549
585
770
811
823
654
712
775
837
82
53
95
68
2005
2006
2007
758
791
792
722
731
670
591
681
561
611
213
190
268
204
154
275
292
330
269
293
1,042
933
937
977
935
955
886
1,162
989
992
1,081
1,119
961
130
275
343
373
409
411
312
7
1
1
-
1
1
8
3
8
8
6
2,591
2,874
3,471
3,556
3,596
4,780
4,496
4,783
5,234
5,029
4,754
Source: VIT Note: the number of students by KLA is roughly twice that of student enrolments as the majority of intending teachers prepare to teach two subject areas
TABLE 22.3: FINAL YEAR STUDENT NUMBERS IN VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES BY SELECTED SOSE SUBJECT (BASED ON SECONDARY TEACHING METHOD) (NUMBER)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
311
356
415
407
455
599
509
476
562
529
421
72
40
43
107
115
151
130
172
162
213
214
SOSE (Subject) History Source: VIT
TABLE 23: AVERAGE ENTER SCORE FOR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (SCORE) 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
66.5
70.7
72.1
73.8
76.0
76.9
76.8
74.6
71.7
70.0
Source: VIT, VTAC
TABLE 24: PROJECTED (OCTOBER 2007) GRADUATE TEACHER SUPPLY (NUMBER)
Primary & Pri/Sec
Secondary
Total
1,865
1,390
3,255
1,814
1,406
3,219
2,006
1,245
3,251
2,130
1,302
3,433
2,282
1,348
3,630
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: VIT
TABLE 25: PERCENTAGE OF MALES IN FIRST YEAR VICTORIAN PRE-SERVICE TEACHER EDUCATION COURSES (PER CENT)
Primary + Pri/Sec Undergraduate Postgraduate Total Secondary Undergraduate Postgraduate Total
1999 Male
2000 Male
2001 Male
2002 Male
2003 Male
2004 Male
2005 Male
2006 Male
2007 Male
20.7
18.1
20.5
20.7
18.5
18.8
21.0
18.9
21.0
22.7
19.1
22.4
19.9
23.6
20.1
23.7
26.0
23.3
21.2
18.4
21.0
20.4
20.0
19.3
21.9
21.4
21.8
34.2
37.6
34.5
31.5
23.2
33.1
35.5
37.3
36.1
35.5
36.0
36.5
37.7
37.9
39.2
37.1
40.5
39.0
35.2
36.5
35.9
36.1
33.6
37.8
36.6
39.7
38.2
Source: VIT
TABLE 26: GRADUATE DESTINATIONS FROM TEACHER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, 2006 (PER CENT)
Undergraduate Secondary Teacher Primary Teacher Special Education Teacher Other education (Pre-Primary, University lecturer/ Tutor) Other employment
Postgraduate
18.2
52.3
58.3
16.1
1.6
2.8
10.3
11.6
11.5
17.2
Source: Graduate Careers Council of Australia
Teacher Supply and Demand 2007
xi
