The Co-benefits of addressing Air Pollution and Climate Change
7/15/2009
Same causes: Economic and industrial growth
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center
The Co-benefits of addressing Air Pollution and Climate Change
18,000
GDP (Billion 2000 US dollars)
16,000
Cornie Huizenga
COP 14 December 2008 Poznan, Poland
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1990
2004
2005
2010
OECD Asia
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD Asia
Source: Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2008
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
2
Same causes: Vehicle growth (1)
Same causes: Vehicle growth (2)
(in millions of vehicles)
China, P.R.
Per Capita CO 2 and Per Capita PM Emissions
India 0.8
small
medium
large Delhi Mumbai
0.7
Thailand
Per Capita CO2 Emission (Kg) per day
Bangalore
Indonesia
Chennai
0.6
Kolkata
Surat 0.5
Hyderabad
Pune and Ahmedabad Kanpur
0.4
Nagpur Agra
0.3
Jaipur
Madurai
Nagpur Bhubaneshwar
0.2
Kochi
Panji
Hubli/Dharwad Shimla
0.1
Pondicherry 0 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Per Capita PM Emission (g) per day Source: 2008. MOUD- Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and Strategies in Urban Area. Analysis By CAI-Asia
4 www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
3
CAI-Asia Center
Same causes: Energy consumption
Interacting effects CLIMATE CHANGE
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2004-2030(Quadrillion Btu)
AIR POLLUTION (Global, Regional, Urban)
800
Non-OECD Africa
700
Non-OECD Middle East
600
Non-OECD Central and South America
500
OECD Asia 400
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 300
Air Pollutants
Greenhouse gases (Kyoto Protocol only) OECD Europe
Black Carbon
200
OECD N.America
N2O
CH4
100
Non-OECD Asia
SF6 HFC
0
CO2
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: 2004 Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
PFC
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 5
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 6
CAI-Asia Center
1
7/15/2009
Co-benefits: 2 definitions
Co-benefits from the global climate change perspective: additional benefits beyond GHG reductions resulting from climate change mitigation measures Reduced air pollution Associated health benefits Improved energy security through reduced energy costs and dependency on oil imports Increased access to energy
Co-benefits: shared costs
Integrating air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation policies offers potentially large cost reductions compared to treating those policies in isolation”
Co-benefits from the Asian regional/local perspective: additional GHG reductions resulting from measures aimed to address
Development issues, such as air pollution and associated health
Problems, lack of energy access and security, and other socioeconomic problems
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2006
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 7
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 8
Co-benefits: importance to Asia
CAI-Asia Center
Overlapping solutions
• To stay within 2 oC increase, drastic emission cuts needed from 1990 – 2050: – 60-80% developed countries – 20% developing countries
• Addressing urban air pollution provides a unique opportunity to mitigate global climate change through local actions RIGHT NOW
Source: Fourth Assessment Report IPCC WG III
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 9
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 10
Example: co-benefits through CDM in China
CAI-Asia Center
Example: E-bikes in China Energy Use CO2 SO2 PM CO HC NOX Pbb (kWh/100 pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (mg/paxkm) km) km) km) km) km) km) km) Carc 140 306 0.689 0.277 10.06 1.67 1.32 93 Bus 13.06 48.4 0.022 0.065 0.159d 0.015d 0.27d 4 Motorcycle 42.00 128.0 0.08 0.400 12.5d 2.25d 0.15d 53 Bicycle 4.88 4.70 0.014 0.059 Unkn Unkn Unkn 0 BSEB 6.12 22.08 0.123 0.125 0.016d 0.007d 0.027d 520 SSEB 8.42 30.44 0.164 0.175 0.019d 0.008d 0.020d 730 a Assuming lifespan of 1,000,000 km, 20,000 km, and 50,000 km and average load factors of 50 pax, 1 pax, and 1 pax for bus, bicycle and electric bike, respectively. b Assuming 80% recycle rate and one battery every 10,000 km for electric bikes and one battery every 3 years or 250,000 kilometers16 for buses, one battery every per 3 years or from 75,00040,000 km for car, one battery every 3 • China now produces million E-bikes year in 1998 years or 18,000 km for motorcycle (Wang, Huo et al. 2006). • E-bikes are now in the majority in many of the Chinese cities Note: some fields are Unknown (Unkn) because data are not available for the emission of these pollutants •from E-bikes have an advantage in air pollutants over traditional motor cycles, and cars production processes and/or power plant emissions c• E-bikes have an advantage in GHG over cars, traditional motor cycles and busses Sullivan et al. 1998-LCA of Generic US Car (compare with caution) d• E- bikes can result in other environmental problems –lead acid batteries Only Use phase emission rate, no production processes included
Annual co-benefits if China realizes CDM potential (but CO2abatement could be paid from other sources also) • SO2-emissions reduction: 0.5 - 3 million tons (2.5–15%) • 2,700 and 38,000 lives may be saved • 1–45 billion RMB savings (approx. 0.1 – 4.5 billion US$)
Note: some fields are Unknown (Unkn) for bicycle because these pollutants are not reported for production processes Source: Domestic environmental benefits of China’s Energy-related CDM potential, Haakon Vennemo et. al. Climatic Change (2006) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-1834-0
Source: Preliminary results: Environmental Impacts of E-Bikes in Chinese Market, Christopher Cherry-University of Tennessee Jonathan Weinert-Univ. of CA-Davis & Chevron, Yang Xinmiao-Tsinghua University
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 12
CAI-Asia Center
2
7/15/2009
Integration of AP and CC policies at 3 levels
Policies on AP and CC relevant to Asia Climate Change •
•
• •
Global/regional level – UNFCCC / Kyoto protocol: No obligations developing countries, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – Bali Action Plan: nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties National level policies – e.g. China, Korea, India – Limited target setting Sectoral targets: – Energy efficiency (e.g. China, Viet Nam) Urban level – Limited but growing level of activity
Air Quality •
•
• •
Global/Regional level – No global agreement – CLRTAP in Europe a success – Regional agreements in Asia emerging: EANET, ASEAN Haze agreement, Male Declaration National level – Clean air legislation, AQ standards in place but not well enforced – No or limited targets Sectoral policies and targets – Power sector, industry, transport Urban level – Wide range of capacity Source: “Air Pollution and Climate Change – scientific understanding as a basis for integrated policy making. Frank Raes et al., Joint Research Center, European Commission
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 13
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 14
Combined AP and CC policies most effective
CAI-Asia Center
For more information
CAI-Asia Center www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia Sophie Punte Incoming Executive Director [email protected] May Ajero Air Quality Program Manager [email protected] Source: “Air Pollution and Climate Change – scientific understanding as a basis for integrated policy making. Frank Raes et al., Joint Research Center, European Commission
Unit 3510, 35th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower, ADB Avenue, Pasig City, Metro Manila, 1605 Philippines
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 15
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
3
Same causes: Economic and industrial growth
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center
The Co-benefits of addressing Air Pollution and Climate Change
18,000
GDP (Billion 2000 US dollars)
16,000
Cornie Huizenga
COP 14 December 2008 Poznan, Poland
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1990
2004
2005
2010
OECD Asia
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD Asia
Source: Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2008
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
2
Same causes: Vehicle growth (1)
Same causes: Vehicle growth (2)
(in millions of vehicles)
China, P.R.
Per Capita CO 2 and Per Capita PM Emissions
India 0.8
small
medium
large Delhi Mumbai
0.7
Thailand
Per Capita CO2 Emission (Kg) per day
Bangalore
Indonesia
Chennai
0.6
Kolkata
Surat 0.5
Hyderabad
Pune and Ahmedabad Kanpur
0.4
Nagpur Agra
0.3
Jaipur
Madurai
Nagpur Bhubaneshwar
0.2
Kochi
Panji
Hubli/Dharwad Shimla
0.1
Pondicherry 0 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Per Capita PM Emission (g) per day Source: 2008. MOUD- Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and Strategies in Urban Area. Analysis By CAI-Asia
4 www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
3
CAI-Asia Center
Same causes: Energy consumption
Interacting effects CLIMATE CHANGE
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2004-2030(Quadrillion Btu)
AIR POLLUTION (Global, Regional, Urban)
800
Non-OECD Africa
700
Non-OECD Middle East
600
Non-OECD Central and South America
500
OECD Asia 400
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 300
Air Pollutants
Greenhouse gases (Kyoto Protocol only) OECD Europe
Black Carbon
200
OECD N.America
N2O
CH4
100
Non-OECD Asia
SF6 HFC
0
CO2
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: 2004 Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
PFC
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 5
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 6
CAI-Asia Center
1
7/15/2009
Co-benefits: 2 definitions
Co-benefits from the global climate change perspective: additional benefits beyond GHG reductions resulting from climate change mitigation measures Reduced air pollution Associated health benefits Improved energy security through reduced energy costs and dependency on oil imports Increased access to energy
Co-benefits: shared costs
Integrating air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation policies offers potentially large cost reductions compared to treating those policies in isolation”
Co-benefits from the Asian regional/local perspective: additional GHG reductions resulting from measures aimed to address
Development issues, such as air pollution and associated health
Problems, lack of energy access and security, and other socioeconomic problems
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2006
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 7
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 8
Co-benefits: importance to Asia
CAI-Asia Center
Overlapping solutions
• To stay within 2 oC increase, drastic emission cuts needed from 1990 – 2050: – 60-80% developed countries – 20% developing countries
• Addressing urban air pollution provides a unique opportunity to mitigate global climate change through local actions RIGHT NOW
Source: Fourth Assessment Report IPCC WG III
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 9
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 10
Example: co-benefits through CDM in China
CAI-Asia Center
Example: E-bikes in China Energy Use CO2 SO2 PM CO HC NOX Pbb (kWh/100 pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (g/pax- (mg/paxkm) km) km) km) km) km) km) km) Carc 140 306 0.689 0.277 10.06 1.67 1.32 93 Bus 13.06 48.4 0.022 0.065 0.159d 0.015d 0.27d 4 Motorcycle 42.00 128.0 0.08 0.400 12.5d 2.25d 0.15d 53 Bicycle 4.88 4.70 0.014 0.059 Unkn Unkn Unkn 0 BSEB 6.12 22.08 0.123 0.125 0.016d 0.007d 0.027d 520 SSEB 8.42 30.44 0.164 0.175 0.019d 0.008d 0.020d 730 a Assuming lifespan of 1,000,000 km, 20,000 km, and 50,000 km and average load factors of 50 pax, 1 pax, and 1 pax for bus, bicycle and electric bike, respectively. b Assuming 80% recycle rate and one battery every 10,000 km for electric bikes and one battery every 3 years or 250,000 kilometers16 for buses, one battery every per 3 years or from 75,00040,000 km for car, one battery every 3 • China now produces million E-bikes year in 1998 years or 18,000 km for motorcycle (Wang, Huo et al. 2006). • E-bikes are now in the majority in many of the Chinese cities Note: some fields are Unknown (Unkn) because data are not available for the emission of these pollutants •from E-bikes have an advantage in air pollutants over traditional motor cycles, and cars production processes and/or power plant emissions c• E-bikes have an advantage in GHG over cars, traditional motor cycles and busses Sullivan et al. 1998-LCA of Generic US Car (compare with caution) d• E- bikes can result in other environmental problems –lead acid batteries Only Use phase emission rate, no production processes included
Annual co-benefits if China realizes CDM potential (but CO2abatement could be paid from other sources also) • SO2-emissions reduction: 0.5 - 3 million tons (2.5–15%) • 2,700 and 38,000 lives may be saved • 1–45 billion RMB savings (approx. 0.1 – 4.5 billion US$)
Note: some fields are Unknown (Unkn) for bicycle because these pollutants are not reported for production processes Source: Domestic environmental benefits of China’s Energy-related CDM potential, Haakon Vennemo et. al. Climatic Change (2006) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-1834-0
Source: Preliminary results: Environmental Impacts of E-Bikes in Chinese Market, Christopher Cherry-University of Tennessee Jonathan Weinert-Univ. of CA-Davis & Chevron, Yang Xinmiao-Tsinghua University
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 12
CAI-Asia Center
2
7/15/2009
Integration of AP and CC policies at 3 levels
Policies on AP and CC relevant to Asia Climate Change •
•
• •
Global/regional level – UNFCCC / Kyoto protocol: No obligations developing countries, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – Bali Action Plan: nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties National level policies – e.g. China, Korea, India – Limited target setting Sectoral targets: – Energy efficiency (e.g. China, Viet Nam) Urban level – Limited but growing level of activity
Air Quality •
•
• •
Global/Regional level – No global agreement – CLRTAP in Europe a success – Regional agreements in Asia emerging: EANET, ASEAN Haze agreement, Male Declaration National level – Clean air legislation, AQ standards in place but not well enforced – No or limited targets Sectoral policies and targets – Power sector, industry, transport Urban level – Wide range of capacity Source: “Air Pollution and Climate Change – scientific understanding as a basis for integrated policy making. Frank Raes et al., Joint Research Center, European Commission
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 13
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 14
Combined AP and CC policies most effective
CAI-Asia Center
For more information
CAI-Asia Center www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia Sophie Punte Incoming Executive Director [email protected] May Ajero Air Quality Program Manager [email protected] Source: “Air Pollution and Climate Change – scientific understanding as a basis for integrated policy making. Frank Raes et al., Joint Research Center, European Commission
Unit 3510, 35th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower, ADB Avenue, Pasig City, Metro Manila, 1605 Philippines
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia 15
CAI-Asia Center
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia CAI-Asia Center
3
