The Impact of India's Ballistic Missile Defense Program on Pakistan's ...
India’s Ballistic Missile Defense Program: Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia Shane Mason 2013 Fall Conference Project on Nuclear Issues Center for Strategic and International Studies December 17, 2013
Outline • South Asia’s “Strategic Triangle” • India’s Rationale for Ballistic Missile Defense • Technical/Operational Status of India’s BMD • Implications for Pakistan and Likely Response • Implications for China and Likely Response • Conclusion and Implications for American Foreign Policy in South Asia
South Asia’s “Strategic Triangle” • Two strategic dyads in South Asia • India-Pakistan • India-China • Asymmetric power dynamics • Border disputes • India-Pakistan: Jammu and Kashmir (LOC) • India-China: Askai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh (LOAC) • History of conflict • Indo-Pakistan Wars: 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999 • 1962 Sino-Indian War
Rationale for India’s Missile Defense • Dangerous Neighborhood • Pakistan • China
• The Pakistani Challenge • Political instability • Overcoming “nuclear blackmail”
• The Chinese Challenge • Nuclear asymmetry • 2007 ASAT test
• Strategic enclave • Technological hedge • Lessons from the NPT?
Ballistic Missile Defense in India • Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) • Upper tier (90-150km altitude): Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) and Prithvi Defense Vehicle (PDV) • Lower tier (18-30km altitude): Advanced Air Defense (AAD) • Green Pine Radar, Phalcon AWACS, and Iron Dome (?) • Cooperation with Israel
Strategic Implications for Pakistan • Changes the nature of deterrence regime • Offensive-dominant regime v. mixed, offensivedefensive dominant regime • Assured retaliation v. assured neutralization • Technical aspects less important than strategic consequences, which are immediate • Pakistan’s strategic outlook • India’s BMD appears “offensive” • India’s commitment to “credible minimum deterrence” and NFU becomes less believable • U.S.-India relations v. U.S.-Pakistan relations
The Pakistani Response: Nuclear Posture • Force posture • Overwhelm: more fissile material, warheads, and delivery systems • Evade: cruise missiles and decoys • Ra’ad (ALCM) and Babur (LACM)
The Pakistani Response: Doctrine and Command-and-Control • Doctrine • Reserving the right to nuclear first-use • Nuclear weapons are war-fighting weapons • Command-and-Control • Denial and deception • Maintaining higher states of readiness, particularly in crisis scenarios • Strategic mission for Pakistan Navy • Nonproliferation Policy • Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty
Strategic Implications for China • Indian BMD does not undermine China’s deterrent in the short to medium-term • Nuclear weapons not as relevant to Sino-Indian strategic competition • U.S., not India, focus of Chinese nuclear decision-making • China and India’s commitment to NFU • Long-term implications uncertain • BMD can serve as a foundation for a future antisatellite capability
Strategic Implications for China: Space Security • India’s BMD can be leveraged into an ASAT capability • India often takes an exploratory/hedging approach, developing dual-use technologies with civilian and military applications • China’s 2007 ASAT test unsettled Indian military (Basic Doctrine of the Indian Air Force, 2012): • “Recent incidents clearly indicate that threats from outer space are now a reality.” • “As dependence on space assets and systems increases, the concurrent vulnerability of our country to hostile action seeking to destroy, degrade or deny our space capabilities so painstakingly built over the decades would increase.”
Looking Ahead: Strategic Stability in South Asia • Indo-Pakistan Relations • More fissile material, warheads, larger and more diverse suite of delivery systems • Greater Pakistani insecurity vis-à-vis India, particularly in a crisis scenario • Role of India’s “strategic enclave” • Sino-Indian Relations • Space warfare capabilities • Long-term strategic challenge • U.S.-India relations • Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy • Supporting India’s BMD: Bush v. Obama • 2016 and beyond • The Pivot
Outline • South Asia’s “Strategic Triangle” • India’s Rationale for Ballistic Missile Defense • Technical/Operational Status of India’s BMD • Implications for Pakistan and Likely Response • Implications for China and Likely Response • Conclusion and Implications for American Foreign Policy in South Asia
South Asia’s “Strategic Triangle” • Two strategic dyads in South Asia • India-Pakistan • India-China • Asymmetric power dynamics • Border disputes • India-Pakistan: Jammu and Kashmir (LOC) • India-China: Askai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh (LOAC) • History of conflict • Indo-Pakistan Wars: 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999 • 1962 Sino-Indian War
Rationale for India’s Missile Defense • Dangerous Neighborhood • Pakistan • China
• The Pakistani Challenge • Political instability • Overcoming “nuclear blackmail”
• The Chinese Challenge • Nuclear asymmetry • 2007 ASAT test
• Strategic enclave • Technological hedge • Lessons from the NPT?
Ballistic Missile Defense in India • Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) • Upper tier (90-150km altitude): Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) and Prithvi Defense Vehicle (PDV) • Lower tier (18-30km altitude): Advanced Air Defense (AAD) • Green Pine Radar, Phalcon AWACS, and Iron Dome (?) • Cooperation with Israel
Strategic Implications for Pakistan • Changes the nature of deterrence regime • Offensive-dominant regime v. mixed, offensivedefensive dominant regime • Assured retaliation v. assured neutralization • Technical aspects less important than strategic consequences, which are immediate • Pakistan’s strategic outlook • India’s BMD appears “offensive” • India’s commitment to “credible minimum deterrence” and NFU becomes less believable • U.S.-India relations v. U.S.-Pakistan relations
The Pakistani Response: Nuclear Posture • Force posture • Overwhelm: more fissile material, warheads, and delivery systems • Evade: cruise missiles and decoys • Ra’ad (ALCM) and Babur (LACM)
The Pakistani Response: Doctrine and Command-and-Control • Doctrine • Reserving the right to nuclear first-use • Nuclear weapons are war-fighting weapons • Command-and-Control • Denial and deception • Maintaining higher states of readiness, particularly in crisis scenarios • Strategic mission for Pakistan Navy • Nonproliferation Policy • Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty
Strategic Implications for China • Indian BMD does not undermine China’s deterrent in the short to medium-term • Nuclear weapons not as relevant to Sino-Indian strategic competition • U.S., not India, focus of Chinese nuclear decision-making • China and India’s commitment to NFU • Long-term implications uncertain • BMD can serve as a foundation for a future antisatellite capability
Strategic Implications for China: Space Security • India’s BMD can be leveraged into an ASAT capability • India often takes an exploratory/hedging approach, developing dual-use technologies with civilian and military applications • China’s 2007 ASAT test unsettled Indian military (Basic Doctrine of the Indian Air Force, 2012): • “Recent incidents clearly indicate that threats from outer space are now a reality.” • “As dependence on space assets and systems increases, the concurrent vulnerability of our country to hostile action seeking to destroy, degrade or deny our space capabilities so painstakingly built over the decades would increase.”
Looking Ahead: Strategic Stability in South Asia • Indo-Pakistan Relations • More fissile material, warheads, larger and more diverse suite of delivery systems • Greater Pakistani insecurity vis-à-vis India, particularly in a crisis scenario • Role of India’s “strategic enclave” • Sino-Indian Relations • Space warfare capabilities • Long-term strategic challenge • U.S.-India relations • Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy • Supporting India’s BMD: Bush v. Obama • 2016 and beyond • The Pivot
